Introduction to the socio-ecological model

Dr Olivia LangmeadMarine Biological Association

Understanding the current situation

The starting point is how the seabed is currently used.

The ecosystem service assessment has made the linkages between the components below (Tara’s work).

Current activities Pressures Seabed

habitatsFish

/ carbonCurrentValue(£)

Elaborating the management scenarios

The next step is to elaborate the management scenarios into activity and pressure layers.

The pressure layers will become the input for the socio-ecological model.

Current activities Pressures Seabed

habitatsFish / carbon

CurrentValue(£)

Management scenario #1 Pressures

Management scenario #2 Pressures

Stakeholder group

Activities to pressure layers

From all of the scenarios there are 9 main activities:

Spoil disposal

Channel dredging

Aggregate extraction

Marina construction

Tidal demonstration development

Windfarm array development

Demersal towed gear fishing

Agriculture (livestock management)

Coastal development

(this list will likely be reduced after the scoring exercise)

Activities to pressure layers

Activities Broad pressure group

Spoil disposal sedimentation, habitat loss

Channel dredging sedimentation, habitat loss

Aggregate extraction sedimentation, habitat loss

Marina construction habitat loss (saltmarsh)

Tidal demonstration development sedimentation, habitat loss, emf

Windfarm array development sedimentation, habitat loss, emf

Demersal towed gear fishing abrasion

Agriculture (livestock management) nutrient enrichment (estuary)

Coastal development nutrient enrichment (estuary)

Pressure layers: Aggregate extraction

Habitat lossAbrasion

The same grid size will be used for all pressure layers (probably 1km2) and also the habitat maps.

Model inputScenario #1 – Tidal demonstration development

Pressure layer 1 – habitat loss

Pressure layer 2 – sedimentation

Activity 1 – tidal device installation

Activity 2 – demersal fisheries

Pressure layer 3 – abrasion

Habitat map

Pressure layers are input for the model

Each scenario will have a layer corresponding to each pressure that is changed within it. These will form the input to the model.

Each pressure will have 2-4 states (e.g. abrasion - high, medium, low, absent). Thus the input information will be simple and clear. Current

activities Pressures Seabed habitats

Fish / carbon

CurrentValue

Management scenario #1 Pressures

Management scenario #2 Pressures

Seabed habitats

Fish / carbon Value

Seabed habitats

Fish / carbon Value

Stakeholder group Socio-ecological model

Marginal change in

value

Model development

Currently there are three models – one for each ecosystem service provided by the seabed that we are interested in: Fish nursery function

Foodweb function (providing fish with food)

Waste remediation (including carbon burial)

In time, there will just be one model that can handle all three aspects

The main steps in model development are: Developing the conceptual model

Populating the linkages

Testing the model

Running the scenarios ©Ke

ith H

isco

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Fish nursery model

Sedimentation Nutrient enrichment

Habitat loss Abrasionemf

Habitat type Altered Habitat type

Nursery - bass

Nursery - flatfish

Nursery – skate & ray

Nursery – lobster

Nursery – cod

Bass nursery quality

Flatfish nursery quality

Skate & ray nursery quality

Lobster nursery quality

Cod nursery quality Nursery

habitat value

Foodweb model

Sedimentation Nutrient enrichment

Habitat loss Abrasionemf

Habitat type

Vulnerability emf

Vulnerability nutrients

Vulnerability sedimentation

VulnerabilityHabitat loss

Vulnerability abrasion

Combined vulnerability

Habitat quality

Lobster food web provision

Flatfish food web provision

Skate & ray food web provision

Bass food web provision

Cod food web provision

Waste remediation model

Sedimentation Nutrient enrichment

Habitat loss Abrasionemf

Habitat type

Vulnerability emf

Vulnerability nutrients

Vulnerability sedimentation

VulnerabilityHabitat loss

Vulnerability abrasion

Functional groups

Community bioturbation potentiial

Waste remediation capacity

With special thanks to all our partners and funders