Introduction to Sustainable Development

Lecture A

Purpose of the Course

Introduce the Concept of Sustainability as the Foundation of Future Society

Provide a Foundation for Understanding and Implementing Sustainability Principles

Show the Importance of a Sustainable Community as the Key Concept

Indicate Methods for Implementing Sustainability in Various Social and Economic Sectors

Reasons for this Course Humankind is profoundly affecting the Earth:

Destruction of ecosystems and biodiversityGlobal environmental problems: greenhouse warming,

ozone depletion, toxification, soil erosion, emissionsMass movements of materialsIntroduction of biological agents: estrogen mimickers,

genetically engineered productsHumankind does not understand or appreciate

the role of ecosystems for our health and in our economy

Humanity may be crashing the critical planetary ecosystems

How do we change direction at this critical point in time? Globally? In Poland?

Proposed Solution -BrieflySustainable development or sustainability“Development that meets the needs of the

present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” [World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987; Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)]

Balancing environment, economy, and society’s needs

Sustainability Clarified: Satisfying lives for all within the means of nature—now and in the future. [Redefining Progress, 2002, www.rprogress.org]

Some New Vocabulary

SustainabilitySubstitutabilityDeep EcologyFactor 4 and Factor 10Carrying CapacityEcological FootprintEcological RucksackAdaptive ManagementEcological EconomicsEnvironmental EthicsClean Production Industrial EcologyEco-efficiencyMIPS

The Twin Problems: Population and Consumption

Human population has been growing exponentially since the beginning of the industrial revolution (1.7%/year)

Industrial production has also been growing at an exponential rate (3.5%/year 1970-2000)

World fertilizer consumption is doubling every 15 years. Total use now is 15 times greater than the end of WWII.

In this century, consumption of energy and materials will increase by a Factor of 12 (2000-2100) if growth in population continues at the same ratesBeyond the Limits to Growth, Meadows, Meadows, and Rander

World Population Growth

World Population Growth

World Demographic Transition

Population Growth over Time

1650: 0.5 billion 0.3%/year DT=250 yrs1900: 1.6 billion 0.5%/year DT=140 yrs1970: 3.6 billion 2.1%/year DT= 34 yrsResult: Superexponential growth, the rate of

increase is increasing1990: 5.4 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42 yrs2000: 6.0 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42

yrs

World Industrial Production

Percent Change in Industrial Production from Previous Year

World Fertilizer Use 1950-2000

Year Total106 tons

Per PersonKg

1950 14 5.5

1960 27 8.9

1970 66 17.8

1980 112 25.1

1990 143 27.1

2000 141 23.2

Worldwide Growth in Selected Activities 1970-2000

1970 2000

Population 3.6 billion 6.1 billion

Automobile Production 22.5 million 40.9 million

Oil consumption 2,189 MTOE 3,332 MTOE

Natural gas consumption 1,022 MTOE2,277 MTOE

Coal consumption 1,635 MTOE2,034 MTOE

Wind Energy Capacity(MW) approx 0 18,100

GDP ($-1999) $16.3 trillion $43.2 trillion

GDP ($-1999/capita $4,407$7,102

AIDS Deaths approx 0 21.8 million

Key Lesson about Growth Rates

Apparently small growth rates have massive consequences

World population growth rate is ‘only’ 1.7%

Buy means 78 million new people per year

World population doubled since 1960!

Why?

Doubling TimesGrowth Rate, %/year Doubling Time (years)

0.1 700

0.5 140

1.0 70

2.0 35

3.0 23

4.0 18

5.0 14

6.0 10

7.0 7

Example: Nigeria’s Population

Population growth rate: 2.7%/year

Year Population (millions)

1990 118

2014 236

2038 472

2062 944

2086 1,888

Rule of 72

72/Growth Rate in %/year = Doubling Time in Years

Nigerian Example: 72/2.7% = 26.7 years

One more example: Paper!

Double a sheet of paper: the thickness is doubled.

Double the sheet of paper 40 times: how thick is it?

Thickness = 0.5 mm x 240 = 0.5 x 1.1 x 1012 = 5.5 x1011 mm

= 550,000,000,000 mm = 550,000 km

= distance from the Earth to the Moon!

Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology

I = P x A x T

Impact (throughput) of a population on the planet’s sources and sinks equals the population times its affluence times the damage done by the technologies supporting the affluence. Environmental impact/person

Source: Paul Ehrlich

IPAT Formula

Affecting IPAT OutcomesPopulation (P) : family planning, female literacy,

social welfare, role of women, land tenureAffluence (A) :

Capital stock/person: values, prices, full costing, what do we want?, What is enough?

Material throughput/capital stock: product longevity, material choice, minimum materials design, recycling/reuse/recovery, scrap recovery

Technology (T) :Energy/material throughput: End-use efficiency, conversion

efficiency, distribution efficiency, system integration, process redesign

Environmental impact/Energy: Benign sources, scale, siting, technical mitigation, offsets

Some Evidence of Real ProblemsHumans are coopting 40% of terrestrial and

30% of aquatic Net Primary Production (NPP) (Vitousek et al 1986))

Humans are coopting 26% of all evapotranspiration and 54% of available water runoff, a net of about 30% of all the solar powered hydrologic cycle (Postel 1997)

Humans are moving 2x more material than all natural forces combined (Schmidt-Bleek 1997)

Atmospheric CO2 has risen from 290 ppm (early 1880’s) to 315 ppm in 1958, 345 ppm in 1990, 369 ppm in 2000

Falling grain production

World Grain Production 1950-2006

YearTotal106 tons

Per PersonKg

1950 631 247

1960 824 271

1970 1,079 291

1980 1,430 321

1990 1,769 335

2000 1,840 303

2006 1,984 303

What is Sustainable Development?_ Sustainable development is development that meets the

needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs [World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987; Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)]

_ Agenda 21: In order to meet the challenges of environment and development, States decided to engage in a new global partnership ... sustainable development should become a priority item on the agenda of the international community [UN Conf on Env Dev, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992]

_ ... is nondeclining human well-being over time [David Pearce, Economics of Sustainable Development, 1994]

More on Sustainable DevelopmentA particular system that when considered in

isolation has a positive balance in relation to its own costs and benefits (Ravetz 1992)

Improving the quality of life within the carrying capacity or supporting ecosystems (WCU 1991)

The use of energy and materials in an urban area in balance with what the region can supply continuously through natural processes such as photosynthesis, biological decomposition, and the biochemical processes which sustain life (Lyle 1994)

Something is 'sustainable' if it has the capacity to continue. (Sustainable London)

Lester Brown (Worldwatch Institute)

Over the long term for sustainability:Species Extinction <= Species EvolutionSoil Erosion <= Soil FormationForest Destruction <= Forest

RegenerationCarbon Emissions <= Carbon FixationFish Catches <= Regeneration Capacity

of FisheriesHuman Births <= Human Deaths

Key Points

Sustainability is concerned with future generations, intergenerational justice, resources, environment

Three systems must be maintained in healthy a healthy relationship: ecological, social, and economic

Natural systems hold the key to human sustainability

The Systems

Natural (N) Social (S)

Economic (E)

Proto-Sustainable Systems

N E

S

Truly Sustainable Systems

NE S

Paradigm Shifts

NOW FUTUREConsumption ConservationDepletion StewardshipDivided IntegratedCentralized LocalArtificial NaturalUnhealthy HealthyLinear CircularImpersonal CommunityBland AestheticRights Responsibilities

What is the connection between...?

Social problems– erosion of the family– educational system quality – crime and prisoners – decaying cities

Economic problems– unequal distribution of wealth– shift of productivity income, workers to

capital owners– technology driven “creative destruction”

Environmental problems– loss of natural capital: rainforest– greenhouse warming and ozone depletion– loss of soil, over-fishing, over-grazing, over-

foresting

Thinking Sustainably: Observe Nature

There is no such thing as waste Live off current solar income Respect and foster diversity

A key lesson from this course!

General Sustainability Principles

minimize resource consumption, use of non-renewables, pollution, toxics, waste

maximize efficiency, reuse, recycling, renewable resource use

foster conservation, understanding of natural systems functions, economic justice

focus on quality v. quantity, needs v. wants

redesign the economy and artifacts to mimic natural systems

Waste = Pollution = Inefficiency = Lost $

Positive Correlation: environmentalism & economic prosperity

Germany– environmental technologies– environmental policy = economic policy– improved environmental quality =

improved competitiveness Japan

– 40% less energy in steel production than US, far less air pollution

– defy conventional wisdom– Research Agency of Innovative Technology

for the Earth: international competitiveness

Perverse Economics Environmental damage actually add to GNP Depletion of natural resources adds to GNP (+ tax

credits!!) The polluter hardly pays Waste disposal is heavily subsidized Maximum ROI drives corporate decisions Discount rate maximizes today’s

consumption/depletion

Strong vs. Weak Sustainability

Refers to different schools of thought

Strong: natural capital is irreplaceable

Weak: natural capital is substitutable by manmade capital

More discussion when we cover economic concepts

SummaryExtraction of resource and environmental

damage continuing and even acceleratingWe are rapidly destroying adapted,

diverse ecosystems crucial to both our economy and our survival

Growth as a basic assumption of the economic system is mathematically and physically impossible

Sustainability can help us change course to live within the constraints of nature with a high quality of life, to change our thinking.

“The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” - Albert Einstein