introduction to population geography

8/9/2019 Introduction to Population Geography

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POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

Mdm Masayu Mahmud

Innova JC

Weeks 2-3 ( Human Geography Lecture 1-2)The History of Population ttri!utes of Populations

1) Demography and Populaton Geography

A ! Populaton Gro"th

# ! $ertlty% ! &ortaltyD ! Populaton Pro'le(E ! Populaton %apaty


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What"s #ifferent a!out population geography at $"Le%els

Facts Focus Explanations

F ( socio-cultural, economic, political, environmental,

historical) Use o statistics Case !tudy

Criti"ue o policies Use o theories

Models in population #eo$raphy


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&%erpopulation'''


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Population Geography

%& 'emo$raphy and opulation #eo$raphy o* population issues are investi$ated+

& #loal 'emo$raphic .rends /hat are the ma0or $loal demo$raphic trends+

1& .he 2$ricultural 3evolution /hat permitted the creation o the irst civili4ations+

5& .he Industrial 3evolution o* the modern society emer$ed+

A


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emography an# Population Geography

'emo$raphy !ystematic analysis o population phenomena throu$h empirical,

statistical and mathematical methods& Interested aout chan$es in the population si4e and composition&

opulation #eo$raphy Concerned y the spatial aspects o population6

7 %- !imple description o the location o the population&

7 - Explanation o its spatial pattern and distriution&

7 1- #eo$raphical analysis (processes such as urani4ation and mi$ration)&

'emo$raphy rather emphasi4es on time *hile population

$eo$raphy emphasi4es on space&

1


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iffusion of Homo apiens roun# the Worl#

Orgn(*

+ mllon #%

#y 1,---,--- #%

#y .--,--- #%

#y /-,--- #%

#y 1/,--- #%

#y 11,--- #%

#y 1-,--- #%

#y /,--- #%

1

#y 0-,--- #%

,--- #%

AD 1,---

AD .--

1,/-- #%


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2 emography an# Population Geography

Evolution o the *orld8s population 9on$ historical process6

7 as een very slo* up to recently&7 1:: million people around year :&

7 3emained small until the last ;: years&

2 ne* $ro*th trend67 as increased almost exponentially&

7 From %&< illion in %=:: to < illion in %===&

7 .o *hat it can e lin>ed+

opulation ?explosion@ 'eines a process o stron$ demo$raphic $ro*th& !tarted ater the !econd /orld /ar& 2out A: million people added each year& Ma0or concern or the uture o humanity&


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Worl# Population 1*+,-2+, (in !illions)2

1/+ year( year(

10 year(

1 year(

1/ year(

10 year(

1. year(

/2 year(


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1+ Largest .ountries/ 2++1 an# 2++ (in millions)2

2001 2050


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3 The gricultural 0e%olution

Bature !tarted around %:,::: C (%,::: years a$o)& First ma0or demo$raphic chan$e in human history& /orld8s population *as around ;-%: million o mostly nomadic

tries& 9i>ely occurred around the Fertile Crescent (Mesopotamia)6

7 .i$ris and Euphrates rivers in today8s Ira"&

'omestication o crops and animals67 9ar$e-scale a$ricultural production possile and leadin$ to a$rarian

societies&

?'a*n o civili4ation@& Invention o the plo*, the *heel, *ritin$, and numers&


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gricultural Hearths3

Nle

3.,--- #4%4)

&e(opotama

32,.-- #4%4)Indu(

30,+-- #4%4)

Gange(

30,+-- #4%4)

Huang He

30,.-- #4%4)


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3 The gricultural 0e%olution

Chan$e o liestyles opulation *ent rom nomadic to sedentary liestyle& Created private property, tools and the accumulation o *ealth& !use"uently the creation o the state&

y %;::, :D o the *orld *as composed o statehoods& 2$ricultural surpluses

Farmin$ allo*ed $reater population densities and the $eneration

o an a$ricultural surplus&

2 $ro*in$ share o the population *as ale to en$a$e in non-a$ricultural activities&

Induced all sorts o innovations such as irri$ation, cratsmanship,

and metallur$y&


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The gricultural 0e%olution

Agrultural Inno5aton

$ood 6urplu(e(

D5(on o' La7or

7Ur7an8aton76edentary l'e(tyle

76peal8aton

76trat'aton

!peciali4ation 'evelopment o trade& Creation o the irst cities&

!tratiication 2n elite $ained control o surplus

resources and deended theirposition *ith arms&

Centrali4ation o po*er and

resources67 9ed to the development o the

state& .he rich and po*erul developed

the institutions o the state to

urther consolidate their $ains&

3


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.he Feudal society 2 system o onds and oli$ations6

7 3oyalties rom the ser to the lord o a share o the a$ricultural production&

i$hly constrainin$ system6

7 2dministrativele$al (9ord) and reli$ious (Church) control&7 Fixation o the productive orces (tools and laor) in a$ricultural

production&

Economy67 9o* levels o productivity (susistence level)&

7 roits ta>en a*ay y the lordchurch, inhiitin$ any increases ina$ricultural productivity&7 A: to =:D o the population *as in a$riculture *hile the other share *ere

artisans and lando*ners&

'ierent types o eudal societies (China, Japan, Europe)&

3


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'emo$raphic conse"uences i$h irth rates6

7 2 eudal society re"uired lar$e amilies&7 elp a$ricultural activities that *ere very laor intensive&

7 Bo contraceptives&

i$h death rates67 /ars et*een competin$ city-states&

7 Fre"uent disruption o ood supplies&

7 Medicine almost non-existent&

7 Epidemics6 ne amous pla$ue, the lac> 'eath, reduced European

population y ;D et*een %15< and %15A&

7 9ie expectancy around 1:-1; years&

.he population $ro*th rate remained lo*& !mall cities o at most ;,::: people&

3


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The n#ustrial 0e%olution

2$riculture 9ess a$ricultural population& #ro*th o the production o ood& Mechani4ation and ertili4ers&

!cientiic and commercial a$riculture& !ocial chan$es

!i$niicant urani4ation& Creation o a laor class&

Mi$ration rom the countryside to cities67 y %AG: more o the hal o the population o the irst industrial nations*as no lon$er in the a$ricultural sector&

7 En$land had reached this sta$e since %A:&

7 .o*ards %=:%, G;D o the En$lish population lived in cities&

4


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A.D.2000

A.D.

1000A.D.

1

1000

B.C.

2000

B.C.3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000

B.C.

6000

B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ millionyears

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStone

Age e! Stone Age

Bron"e

Age

#ron

Age

$iddle

Ages

$odernAge

Bla%& Deat' ()'e *lage

,

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

1800

1,00

1,50

1,75

2000

2100

-tre

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100(1998).

Worl# Population Groth Through History


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Billions

ess De/eloed Contries

$ore De/eloed Contries

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision(ediu scenario), !""#.

Groth in ore/ Less e%elope# .ountries


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hare of the Population in griculture/ 1*2+-141+4


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a5or Phases of emographic .hange

2$ricultural 3evolution Feudal society& /ealth rom a$riculture and land

o*nership& !lo* demo$raphic $ro*th&

Industrial 3evolution /a$e laor society& /ealth rom industry and capital

o*nership& Fast demo$raphic $ro*th&

ost-Industrial 3evolution Inormation society& /ealth rom technolo$ical

development& !lo* demo$raphic $ro*th&

4Agrultural

Re5oluton

Indu(tral

Re5oluton

Po(t9Indu(tral

Re5oluton

12000 years

200 years


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a5or Phases of ocioeconomic .hange

6tone Age $eudal(m Indu(tral Planetary

Organ8aton Tr7e : ;llage%ty9(tate,


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6ertility

%& Context & #ro*th 3ates 1& 'oulin$ .ime

A


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.onte7t

'einition rocess durin$ *hich the population o an

area increases& 3elated to a complex economic, cultural

and social environment&

.*o actors67 (%) Bumer o irths exceeds the numer

o deaths&7 () Mi$ration lo* is positive&

Expressed in percenta$es& irth rate o : per %::: people& 'eath rate o %: per %::: people& #ro*th rate o %: people per year per

%::: population, or %D&

1

Populaton Gro"th

6oety

Eonomy

%ulture

#rth( mnu( Death(

Po(t5e mgratory 7alane


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Worl# Population .lock

Batural Increase

per /orld

More 'evelopedCountries

9ess 'evelopedCountries

9ess 'evelopedCountries (lessChina)

Hear ?-,>-,0?1 >12,+ +>,>?+,100 +1,2+.,120

'ay //1,2. /,.11 /1>,10 1>2,+-

Minute 1.0 / 1./ 12

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2003 World Population Data Sheet.


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Top ten contri!utors to orl# population groth/144-2+++1


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$illions

nnual 1ncrease in orl# Population

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, !""#.


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*olation Str%tres y Age and Se 2005$illions

Less Developed

Regions

More Developed

Regions

$ale -emale $ale -emale

80+757,7074

656,6064555,5054454,4044353,3034252,

2024171,10165,04

Age


ge istri!ution of the Worl#"s Population


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8ncontrolle# Groth 0ates'


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i%erging Tren#s in 6ertility 0e#uction

%&era'e nuer of cildren per *oan



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$illions

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision(ediu scenario), !""+.

1950 2000 2015

Largest .ities/ Worl#i#e


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De%line or ro!t' 20022025Percent

Blgaria1.1

ssia1.1

#taly1.2

)rinidad 9 )oago1.6

Sot' :orea1.4

C'ina1.8

Contrya/erage nmer o; %'ildren er !oman

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (ediu scenario), !""#.

Population in .ountries With Lo 6ertility


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1+ Places With the Loest 9irth 0ates Worl#i#e%&era'e nuer of cildren per *oan, !"""!""-


T # i P l i G h W l# i#


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Tren#s in Population Groth Worl#i#e

*olation #n%rease and ro!t' ate -i/e


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mer o; =omen 15 to 4,Billions


Women of .hil#!earing ge


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.onte7t

3easons or hu$e population $ro*th 2chieved ?death control@ more eectively then irth control& Modern medicine6

7 astly decreased the numer o deaths rom many diseases (malaria,

yello* ever, etc&)&

Famine67 3educed throu$h etter a$riculture, distriution, stora$e and y

international aid mechanisms&

Inant mortality6

7 'ecreased in most areas& Improvement in the availaility and "uality o the *ater supply6

7 Improved hy$iene conditions&7 'ecreased deaths caused y *ater orne diseases&

1


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.onte7t

irth control has een more diicult to achieve 3eli$ious elies& Cultural traditions& .he importance o children as help, laor and security&

.he role o *omen is very limited in many societies&

1


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mpact of 0eligious 9eliefs'


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Groth 0ates

i$h $ro*th D and aove& Characteristic o many .hird

/orld countries&

2vera$e $ro*th

et*een % and D& Much o 9atin 2merica and parts

o 2sia, includin$ China&

9o* $ro*th et*een : and %D&

Europe, the United !tates andCanada are currently in this

ran$e&

ero population $ro*th (#) 9ess than :D&

!everal European countries&

2

Hgh

@PG

A5erage

Lo"

/4-

14-

-4-


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Population Groth 0ate/ 2+++

Not %&ailale

/ess tan "0

"0 to ".-0

".-0 to 1."0

1."0 to 1.-0

1.-0 to !.-0

$ore tan !.-0

2


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Population .hange !eteen 2+++ an# 2++ (:)2


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3 cenarios of Glo!al Population Groth/ 2++-2++2


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Population of 0ussia/ ;apan taly/ 14+-2++ (inmillions)2


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ou!ling Time

'einition 9en$th o time necessary or an area (usually a nation) to doule

its population& .he mathematics o population *or> very much li>e

compoundin$ interest& ercenta$e o increase is applied to an ever-increasin$ ase& !imple e"uation6 G #ro*th rate&

Implications

.he aster the $ro*th rate the lo*er the doulin$ time67 %D $ro*th rate6 G years&7 5D $ro*th rate6 %= years&7 Ininite doulin$ time6 no $ro*th or ne$ative $ro*th&

3


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ou!ling Time as of 2+++

$ore tan !-" ears

1"" to !-" ears

-" to 1"" ears

!- to -" ears

/ess tan !- ears

P2

N%

3


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6ertility

%& Crude irth 3ate & .otal Fertility 3ate 1& Factors Inluencin$ Fertility

B


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1 .ru#e 9irth 0ate

Crude irth 3ate (C3) or#eneral Fertility 3ate (#F3) Bumer o live irths per year per

%::: population& oth males and emales are

considered& 2ll the population is considered,

even the non-reproductive se$ment

(children, elderly)& Bumers li>e %:, :, 5:, etc&

; males o any a$e

; emales o any a$e

%,:::

%: children orn that year

1:

C3 K 1:


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Total 6ertility 0ate

.otal Fertility 3ate (.F3) Bumer o live irths per emale o

reproductive a$e (%;-5=)& Bumers such as &, 5&;& Indicates population chan$e over a

lon$ period o time& Instructive aout societal norms in any

$iven culture& 2 .F3 o &% is considered as ein$

the replacement irth rate&

9o*er than &% yields populationdecrease *hile rates $reater than &%

yields population increase& Improvements in medical conditions

lo*er the replacement rate (elo*

&:< in many countries)&

2

; emales et*een %;-5=

%: children orn that year

%,:::


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Total 6ertility 0ate/ 144,-2+++2

3eplacement rate (&%)


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Total 6ertility 0ate/ 1444

1.1+ 1.-"

1.-1 !.""

!."1 !.-"

!.-1 #.""

#."1 +.""

+."1 3.+1

N%

2


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BiologicalDeterminants

SocialDeterminants

EconomicDeterminants

6actors nfluencing 6ertility3

Fertility


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9irth 0ate per ge Group 8nite# tates 14


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9irth 0ate per ge Group/ 8nite# tates/ 14


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%erage perm .ount of mericans/ 143*-4* (per ml)3

3


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6actors nfluencing 6ertility

!ocial determinants .he social norms and acceptance o practices aectin$ ertility& 'ier rom society to society& Marria$e6

7 articularly the avera$e a$e o marria$e&7 .he percenta$e o people never married varies spatially and aects

ertility rates&7 9ate marria$e a$e $enerally involves less children&

Contraception67

Used y 1:-;:D o all married couples&7 2vailaility o contraceptive devices and social attitudes to*ard their use

aect ertility rates&

7 !harp dierences exist et*een 'Cs and 9'Cs&

7 !ome notale exceptions, such as China and Cua&

3

3


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2ortion67 9ast resort measure *hen contraception ailed (or *as not used)&7 Its le$ality is not universal and under challen$e in some countries *here it

is permitted&

7 #loal i$ures (%===)6

%: million pre$nancies& D o all pre$nancies end up in a aortion& 5


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Pregnancies an# !ortions per Women ge# 1-14=ears/ 144*3

3


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Economic determinants .he role o children, or their ?value@ aects ertility& Inverse relationships6

7 Fertility and income per capita&7 Fertility and urani4ation&

.raditional rural societies67 Children still play an important economic role and contriute to amily

*ealth&

7 Fertility is li>ely to remain hi$her&

Industrial and post-industrial societies67 Costs tend to increase *ith the development level o the society&7 'elate the ertility rate since parents must consider the direct and

opportunity costs o earin$ additional children&

3


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C


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ortality

%& Crude 'eath 3ate & Inant Mortality 3ate 1& 9ie Expectancy 5& Epidemiolo$ical .ransition

C


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1


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.ru#e eath 0ate

Causes o death .hrou$hout most o history amine, epidemics, and *ars have

een the leadin$ causes o death& rimary causes o death e$an to shit to de$enerative prolems

related to a$in$& .hese include such actors as heart disease and cancer&

'eath and *elare Used to e considered a si$n o the health o a population& 'ierent a$e structures amon$ the populations o dierent

countries& ossile or a nation *ith hi$h livin$ standards to have a hi$her

death rate than a poorer nation& 3eason6 overall older population&

1

1


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.ru#e eath 0ate/ 2+++

/ess tan -.""

-."1 8.""

8."1 1".""

1"."1 1!.""

1!."1 1-.""

$ore tan 1-.""

N%

1

6ertility an# ortality in the 8nite# tates 14+-1


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6ertility an# ortality in the 8nite# tates/ 14+-2+++ (in 1+++s)1

2


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nfant ortality 0ate

'einition Expressed in numers o deaths o inants under one year per

%::: live irths o the same year& 2lso considers the death o children under ; per %::: in their

cohort& i$h levels o inant mortality pull do*n lie expectancy rates& 3elects the "uality o the health system& ery stron$ dierences et*een developed and developin$

countries&

2

2


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nfant ortality 0ate/ 2+++

/ess tan 4.""

4."1 1".""

1"."1 !".""

!"."1 -".""

-"."1 1"".""

$ore tan 1"".""

N%

2

.auses of eath for .hil#ren un#er in e%eloping2


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.auses of eath for .hil#ren un#er in e%eloping

.ountries2

3


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Life >7pectancy

'einition Bumer o years a person is expected to live& ased on current death rates& May chan$e due to ameliorations in standards o livin$&

Context !tron$ $eo$raphical variations in lie expectancy& al a century a$o, most people died eore the a$e o ;:& #loal avera$e lie expectancy reached


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Life >7pectancy at 9irth/ 141+ an# 144*3

Worl# %erage Life >7pectancy an# Life >7pectancy in3


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Worl# %erage Life >7pectancy an# Life >7pectancy inn#ustrial an# e%eloping ?ations/ 14+-2+++3

: of en an# Women >7pecte# to ur%i%e to ge *+/3


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: of en an# Women >7pecte# to ur%i%e to ge *+/!y 0egion (mong people !orn 144-2+++)3

=early .ost of a @1/+++/+++ Life nsurance Premium/3


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=early .ost of a @1/+++/+++ Life nsurance Premium/2++13

Lif > t3


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Life >7pectancy

ptimum lie expectancy 9ie expectancy is ultimately dictated y human physiolo$y6

7 2t some points, or$ans cease to unction properly&7 9imit on the liespan o non-cancerous human cells&

Bearin$ lie expectancy limits67 Even i a$e-related diseases such cancer, heart disease, and stro>e *ere

eradicated, lie expectancy *ould only increase y %; years&

7 Currently around G< years&

7 Expected to reach A; years in most developed countries y :1:&

3

> i# i l i l T iti4


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>pi#emiological Transition

'einition Focuses on chan$es over time in the causes o mortality

aectin$ certain populations67 ealth conditions&7 'isease patterns&

3esult in a decline in death rates and an increase o lie

expectancy& .he society $oes throu$h a transition rom communicative

diseases to de$enerative diseases&

4

>pi#emiological Transition4


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>pi#emiological Transition

!ta$es .hree identiiale sta$es in the

transition& %) 2$e o communicative

diseases&

) 2$e o recedin$ pandemics& 1) 2$e o de$enerative and man-

made diseases&

%ommunat5e D(ea(e(

Reedng Pandem(

Degenerat5e and &an9made D(ea(e(

4

70 years

50 years

30 yearsHgh $ertlty

Hgh &ortalty

Hgh $ertlty

Derea(ng &ortalty

Lo" $ertlty

Lo" &ortalty

Population ProfilesD


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Population Profiles

%& opulation yramid & 'ependency 3atio 1& !ex !tructure

D

1 Population Pyrami#


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1 Population Pyrami#

'einition #raph sho*in$ the rea>do*n o

each sex y a$e $roup (cohort)& Illustrates a nation8s population

structure&

!ho*s the maleemalecomposition o the population& Most o the time, the rea>do*n

involves ; years periods&

-91.

1.9-

-90.

0.92-

2-9+.

+.C

5eales$ales

"1" 1"

Perentage o' the populaton

Age group

Population Pyrami# of e7ico 2+++1


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Population Pyrami# of e7ico/ 2+++1

Population Pyrami# of e#en 2+++1


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Population Pyrami# of e#en/ 2+++1

Population Pyrami#1


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Population Pyrami#

Mexican pyramid Much *ider ase than the others& e$innin$ o transition& 3apidly $ro*in$ population *here the percenta$e o people

under %; years o a$e is hi$h& !*eden8s pyramid 'oes not appear to e a pyramid at all& Houn$est component is smaller than its middle-a$ed population

and only sli$htly lar$er than its a$ed population& Bo-$ro*th situation, since some deaths occur rom all a$e

$roupin$s& !*eden has a hi$her death rate than Mexico&

1

Population Pyrami# of the 8nite# tates 2+++1


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Population Pyrami# of the 8nite# tates/ 2+++1


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Population Pyrami# 9erlin 14,


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Population Pyrami#/ 9erlin 14,


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epen#ency 0atio2


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epen#ency 0atio

'einition Comparison et*een the productive and non-productive

population& ten expressed in non-productive per %:: productive&

Bon-productive population67 3eers to the very old (usually N


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epen#ency 0atio

Implications !ociety incurs costs in supportin$ its dependent population& ld a$e $enerates social costs6

7 3etirement eneits&7 Increased medical expenditures&

7 #reater consumption o other social services&

Houths67 Bot yet in the *or> orce&

7 !ome medical costs&

7 #reat expenditures or education&

Bational ud$ets oten relect these expenditures& 9in>ed *ith the population pyramid6

7 yramidal distriutions have hi$h dependency ratios&

7 ?3ectan$ular@ distriutions have hi$h dependency ratios&7 .ransitional pyramids have lo* dependency ratios&

2

epen#ency 0atio of some .ountries/ 144+-1444 (per2


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1++)2


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Population


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.ountries/ 14+-4/ With Pro5ections to 2++2


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epen#ency 0atio2


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epen#ency 0atio

Impacts !ocial security costs& Medical costs and the medical industry at lar$e& ulic sector unds such as the ederal ud$et&

#oods and services used y the elderly experience increasin$demand levels& .hose used y the youn$ andor middle a$ed *ill decline in

relative importance& 9ocal impacts (school districts)&

2

e7 tructure3


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e7 tructure

'einition #ender composition o a population& Males Females L %::& roaility6

7 2pproximately e"ual proaility o male and emale irths&

7 Bormally expect sex ratios to remain very close to %::&

7 .his is oten not the case&

Factors 9ie expectancy at irth is $reater or emales (G= years) than or

males (G)& #ap has increased steadily since %=:, *hen the dierence *as

0ust one year&

3


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e7 0atio in the 8nite# tates/ 1*2+-2+++ (males per1++ f l )3


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1++ females)3

%5l =arImmgraton #oom

==II

==I

L'e epetany gap

Immgraton #oom


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Population ensity1


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Population ensity

2rithmetic density 3elates the si4e o a population () tothe area *hich contains it (2)&

Bumer o people per s"uare mile or

s"uare >ilometer& /ithout re$ard to the productive

"uality o the area& 'istriutional imalances&

hysiolo$ical density Bumer o people per unit o

productive land& roductive is $enerally e"uated *ith

arale land (29)& Important i$ure to measure

sustainaility&

1

AD = P / A

PD = P / AL

Ara7le land

ensity easures for electe# .ountries/ 144 (inl il )1


98/106

people per sAuare mile)1

2 Population istri!ution


99/106

2 Population istri!ution

'einition Considers the distriution o population densities over the earth8s

surace& Inormative in assessin$ a nation8s population& .ypical concentrations alon$ ma0or river systems& 2reas o $reat concentration6

7 !outh 2sia&

7 East 2sia&

7 /estern Europe&7 Bortheastern Borth 2merica&

?Empty@ areas are attriuted to67 arsh physical landscapes&7 arsh temperature&


100/106

Worl# Population ensity an# istri!ution/ 1442


101/106

Worl# Population ensity an# istri!ution/ 1442

Population .apacity3


102/106

Population .apacity

o* many people can esustained y the Earth+ ased on human choices and

natural constraints& Maximum density&

Puantity o arale land& 2$ricultural technolo$y& arvestin$ the ocean& uman acilities& 2vailaility o resources (ener$y,

construction materials, etc&)&

3

6pae

Re(oure(

Te)hnology

%

on(u

mp

ton

3 Population .apacity


103/106

3 opu a o .apac y

'emo$raphic capacity !tudies aout nature8s capacity to support human lie $o ac>

many centuries& 9eeu*enhoe> (%


104/106

p p y

3avenstein in %A=% Concept o carryin$ capacity& Focused on the earth8s cultivale

areas, and their potential productivity

$iven increases in yields over time67 Fertile6 :: people >m&7 !teppe6 %: people >m&7 'esert6 % person >m&

Fi$ure o < illion people as the

numer Earth could sustain *ithout

lo*erin$ livin$ standards&

3eached this numer in %===&

3

Ara7le land

Agrultural

tehnology

%on(umpton

per apta

B

C



105/106

p p y

Contemporary issues Events such as the #reen 3evolution *ere not oreseen y3avenstein&

Mana$ed to increase a$ricultural yields in many areas y

"uantities ar $reater than he had anticipated& Eorts to calculate carryin$ capacity have lar$ely ailed& .oo many variales& alue ran$es et*een 5 and %< illion&

3



106/106

p p y

9evel o consumption 2lternative perspective& .he issue is not resource supply, ut

resource demand& .he *orld is producin$ only a inite

numer o resources or consumption& 'emo$raphic capacity is lin>ed *ith level

o resource consumption&

2merican (lietime) % million >$ o atmospheric *aste& %: million >$ o li"uid *aste& % million >$ o solid *aste& G::,::: >$ o minerals& 5 illion .U o ener$y&

3

introduction to population geography

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