introduction to insurance - first initiative › sites › default › files... · 1 introduction...
TRANSCRIPT
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1
Introduction to Insurance
Presented by IBTCI Consortium:
Gordon Dowsley and Michael Cohen
Tbilisi, Georgia
September, 2003
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2
Introduction to Insurance
– Principles of insurance
– introduction to non-life insurance
– introduction to life insurance
– introduction to annuities
– introduction to reinsurance
– prudential regulation
– review through ratios
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3
Principles of Insurance
– development impact
– pooling of risk
– antiselection
– random chance
– statistical fluctuations and
reinsurance
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4
Principles of Insurance
• Development Impact
– enforcing level of safety
– providing for families
– impact on bond market
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Principles of Insurance
• Pooling of Risk
– everyone contributes money to a pool
– claims are paid from the pool
– magic of pooling eliminates risk
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6
Principles of Insurance
• Pooling of Risk
– each pool has a different level of risk
– companies establish pools for specific risks
– each pool has a different premium
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7
Principles of Insurance
Question: An advertisement in a life
insurance journal shows an overweight man
puffing and sweating as he climbs the steps of
a public building. The caption says, "Your
company may think this man is uninsurable
but to us he is a standard risk."
How could two insurance companies view the
same risk so differently?
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8
Principles of Insurance
Question: Some jurisdictions argue that
charging higher automobile insurance
rates to young people is discrimination by
age and companies should not be allowed
to do so. The companies have statistics
that show significant differences in
experience by age. If the companies are
not allowed to differentiate by age, when it
is so statistically significant, how will the
companies be able to write auto insurance
without huge losses?
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Principles of Insurance
• Antiselection
– A company selects who can be in the pool
– An individual who circumvents the rules selects
against the company or antiselects
– Antiselection means the pool will have worse
than “average” risks
– Hence experience will be worse than expected
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10
Principles of Insurance
Question: A leading automobile insurer in
the USA used to give out reflective bumper
stickers of the company symbol when a
policy was taken out. If the local manger
saw someone driving recklessly with that
decal on his bumper, the license number
would be taken down and at renewal time
the policy would not be renewed. Is this
fair? Fair to whom?
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Principles of Insurance
Random Chance insurance must be based on random
chance
certainty is the opposite of random
chance
without random chance there is
antiselection
losses are predictable in number but
not who will claim
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Principles of Insurance
Statistical fluctuations and
Accounting Periods insurance is based on long term
trends
there will always be short term
fluctuations
accounting periods never match
the natural cycle
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Principles of Insurance
Statistical fluctuations and
Accounting Periods spikes in experience will distort
short term results
spikes could bankrupt a company
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Principles of Insurance
Statistical fluctuations and
Accounting Periods
to deal with spikes set up special reserves
reinsure
all companies must use
reinsurance
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Non life insurance has many
names
general insurance
short term insurance
property & casualty insurance
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Characteristics of non life
insurance
one year term
flat commissions to agents
market share strategy
ratios examination
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Premiums and the Unearned
Premium Reserve
written premium
equals sales result of the company
gross premium minus reinsurance
premium equals net premium
must put net premium into the correct
year
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Allocating premium to appropriate
year
1999 2000 2001
B CA D
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200120001999
Allocating premium to appropriate
year
B CA D
80100
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Unearned premium reserve
unearned premium reserve is
calculated at the end of the accounting
period
unearned premium reserve calculated
1 / 12
1 / 24
1 / 365
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Earned premium and unearned
premium reserve
Earned premium equals
Net written premium plus
unearned premium reserve at
beginning of year minus
unearned premium at end of year
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Unearned premium reserve
unearned premium reserve is set
aside to pay future losses
also called reserve for unexpired
risks
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Loss reserves
the other principal reserve in non
life insurance
for losses which have already
happened
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
• Claims cycle
Accident
happens
Accident
reported to
company
Claim
paidClaim
approved
Claim
processed
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
The claims or loss reserves,
based on the claims cycle, are
the incurred but not reported
reserve (IBNR)
reserve for claims in process
reserve for claims approved but
not yet paid
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Incurred But Not Reported Reserve
(IBNR)
most uncertain reserve
hardest to calculate
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Sample IBNR calculations
Number of claims per day x
average size claim
Percentage of earned premium
Plus events in last part of year
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Reserve for claims in process
add up reported claims
adjust for proper amounts
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Reserve for claims approved
but not paid
add up approved claims
if unusually high could indicate
liquidity problems
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Incurred claims
accidents which actually happened
during the period
Business accounting basis
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Allocating losses to years in which
they occurred – 2000 loss year
1999 2000 2001
A CB
FD E
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
• Allocating losses to years in which they
occurred – 2000 loss year
– Losses paid in 1999 – A
– Losses paid in 2000 – B + C
– Losses paid in 2001 – D + E
– Losses incurred in 2000 – C + D
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Incurred claims equals
claims paid during the period
plus claims reserve at end of year
minus claims reserve at beginning
of year
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Development of loss reserves
it takes many years to know what the
ultimate losses are for any year
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Development of loss reserves
table on next slide shows development of
estimate of losses year by year for ten
years beginning with loss year 1992
table prepared after year end 2001
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1992 80 90 91 89 89 90 88 88 88 88
1993 82 89 89 86 91 92 92 91 88
1994 82 90 89 94 93 91 92 91
1995 86 85 89 87 85 87 86
1996 102 108 107 105 108 102
1997 97 97 98 95 96
1998 98 97 99 98
1999 100 102 101
2000 102 100
2001 101
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Claims control an important aspect
of profits
paying claims is important for business
payment of valid claims enhances
reputation of business
control of invalid or dubious claims
protects profits
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Ratemaking
accounting numbers are best
estimates at the time
changes are made in the future and
not in the past
rates are calculated on a business
accounting basis
actuary will use the most up to
date loss figures
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Year losses
reported in
annual
statement
losses
estimated in
year 5
1 75 65
2 70 70
3 75 75
4 73 80
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Important Ratios
loss ratio
expense ratio
combined ratio
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Loss Ratio
compares losses to premiums
very low number indicates it is
calculated incorrectly
must use business accounting
numbers
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Loss Ratio
equals
incurred losses
earned premium
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Size of loss ratio
60 – 80% for automobile insurance
Large number of policies measns
predictable results
Low loss ratio means bad deal for
customers
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Size of loss ratio
different loss ratio for each line of
business
some lines more volatile than
others
need many lines to have
predictable results
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Expense ratio
equals
incurred expenses
written premium
or
incurred expenses
earned premium
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Combined Ratio
equals loss ratio plus expense ratio
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Combined Ratio
often around 100%
profits come from investment
income
assets must be invested
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
The Balance Sheet
LiabilitiesAssets
capital & surplus
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
The Balance Sheet
Assets
only those which can be used to pay
claims
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
The Balance Sheet
Liabilities
the main liability is reserves
liabilities to policy holders
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Capital and Surplus
the difference between assets and
liabilities
needed :
for unexpected losses (losses
greater than reserves)
used to expand the company
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Capital & surplus
composed of capital
the amount the shareholder paid in
and surplus
retained earnings
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Leverage
using other people’s assets to increase
your profit
In insurance, leverage comes from
assuming premiums
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Leverage
premiums
capital & surplus
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Leverage
Premium
less than
2 X capital & surplus
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
How much capital & surplus is
needed
for a new company
for a company already in business
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
For a new company recommended $3 million
sometimes lower in emerging
markets
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Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
For an existing company
must be able to offset adverse
deviations
depends on size and nature of business
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59
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Three approaches for adequate
capital & surplus
1. rule of thumb
2. European Union
3. North America/Australia
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60
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Adequate capital & surplus
1. Rule of thumb
capital + surplus = 15% of
reserves
could be 33% for volatile lines or
small companies
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61
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
European Union formula
2. The larger of (a) and (b):
(a) 18% of first €10 million of (gross
written premium – 50% of
reinsurance premium)+16% of
excess of such premium
(b) 26% of the first €7 million of
rolling average incurred claims +
23% of the excess of such claims
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62
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
The European Union formula
sees risk coming from premiums
and from claims.
more business (premiums) means
deviations could be greater
claims are subject to fluctuation
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63
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
3. North American formulas
very complex
require computers and actuaries
recognize risk on both sides of
balance sheet
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64
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
North American formulas
recognize that insurance
companies manage two books of
business
assets and liabilities
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65
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
How much is an insurance
company worth?
Calculated in three ways
Rule of thumb
Comparison with others
Actuarial basis
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66
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
How much is an insurance
company worth?
Rule of thumb
1.5 x capital & surplus
plus 20% of premiums
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67
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
How much is an insurance
company worth?
Comparison to Others
How much did similar companies
sell for
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68
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
How much is an insurance
company worth?
Actuarial basis
net worth
plus value of future profits
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69
Introduction to Non Life
Insurance
Why companies fail
bad reinsurance
inadequate pricing
rapid growth
health insurance
dealings with related companies
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70
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Topics covered
– reasons to buy life insurance
– different life insurance products
– main variables
– life insurance reserves
– mathematics of life insurance
– managing the balance sheet
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71
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Topics covered
– capital and surplus
– how life insurance companies are valued
– life insurance accounting
– why insurance companies fail
– annuities
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72
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Reasons to buy life insurance
– funeral expenses
– pay death taxes
– business
– replacement of lost income on death
– buy-out
– credit life to pay off loan
– protection from creditors
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73
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Different life insurance products
Type Description
Whole life Payable on death, whenever
it occurs
Term Payable on death within
specific period
Group life Employer sponsored, covers
group of employees
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74
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Different life insurance products
Type Description
Endowment Payable at maturity
or death if earlier
Annuity Periodic payment
until death of
annuitant(s)
Disability/
health
Payments on
disability or for
medical treatment
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75
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Four main variables
– mortality
– expenses
– lapses
– investment income
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76
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mortality tables
– life insurance is based on probability of
death and survival
– mortality statistics come from many
sources
• data collected by government statisticians
• industry-wide insurance data
• company specific data
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77
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mortality tables
– mortality generally increases as we age
– peri-natal and infant mortality higher
– also peak at teen-age and young adult
years, especially for males
– stylized mortality curve shown in next
slide
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78
Introduction to Life Insurance
Omega
Probability Of Death
Age1
0.001
1
40
SIMPLIFIED MORTALITY TABLE
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79
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mortality tables
– there are many different mortality tables
– mortality varies from country to country
– also varies within country
• population mortality
• “at work” mortality
• insurance policy mortality
• annuitant mortality
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80
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mortality tables
– mortality has been improving in most
countries
– increase in “omega” - the limit of life
– “squaring of mortality curve” - fewer
premature deaths
– sometimes mortality deteriorates - many
ex-soviet countries
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81
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Sensitivity of mortality rates
– typically mortality rates are 1 per 1,000 at
age 40
– one extra death represents 100% increase
in experience
– even one extra death in 10,000 people
equates to 10% above expected
– insurance companies protect themselves
from anti-selection through underwriting
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82
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Objectives of underwriting
– underwriting ensures that only standard
lives accepted as normal risks
– additional risks pay extra premium
– this keeps down cost for everyone
– some latitude allowed in definition of
“standard”
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83
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Factors in underwriting
– family history
– health - medical exams
– amount insured and reasons
– friends and associates
– occupation and hobbies
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84
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Factors affecting mortality
Better Poorer
Women Men
Wealthy Poorer
Non-smokers Smokers
Better educated Less education
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85
Introduction to Life Insurance
Question: Women live longer than men.
They have better mortality at every age from
birth to omega. However, in their fifties
women exhibit higher levels of disability.
Why would they have higher levels of
disability than men do at this age?
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86
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Select and ultimate mortality
– individuals who have just passed medical
have better mortality - called “select
mortality”
– also those who have recently purchased
annuity - self-selection
– advantage deteriorates over time -
“ultimate mortality”
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87
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Cost of mortality
– pure premium for one year’s insurance
simply mortality rate
– for example at age 40 rate should be $1 for
each $1,000 of sum insured
– assumes mortality = 1 per 1,000
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88
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Level premium life insurance
– mortality goes up with age
– on one year basis premium would increase
each year
– eventually premium would be
prohibitively expensive
– level premium avoids this problem
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89
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Level premium life insurance
– premium starts off greater than cost of
mortality
– additional premium goes into reserve
– when cost of mortality exceeds premium
extra cost paid from reserve
– reserve also earns interest
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90
Introduction to Life Insurance
• ILLUSTRATION OF LEVEL PREMIUM LIFE
INSURANCE
Level
Premium
Age
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91
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Build-up of reserve
– amount at risk = sum insured - reserve
– reserve increases by interest and reduces
by mortality charge and expenses
– eventually equals sum insured at omega
for whole life or maturity for endowment
– part of reserve could be refunded on
cancellation of policy = surrender value
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92
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Build-up of reserve
Amount at risk
Reserve
Age
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93
Introduction to Life Insurance
• A natural hedge
– life insurance portfolio benefits from
improving mortality
– annuity portfolio suffers from this
– balanced portfolio of life insurance and
annuities will be immune to changing
mortality
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94
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Non-participating versus participating
– in non-participating policy premium is
fixed
– this means company must make
assumptions about mortality, interest and
expenses over many years into future
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95
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Non-participating versus participating
– if not sufficiently conservative will make a
loss
– if overly conservative might not be
competitive and will sell few policies
– solution might be participating policy
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96
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Non-participating versus participating
– in participating policy, conservative
assumptions are made to guard against
losses - premiums higher than non-par
– but dividends are returned to policyholder
when experience favourable
– risk and reward shared between company
and policyholder
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97
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Non-participating versus participating
– dividends paid as
• cash
• premium reduction
• increased insurance
– can be offset to inflation, by increasing
cover
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98
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Non-participating versus participating
– this is more complex product to cost and
illustrate
– also dividend calculations complex
– requires more actuarial input than other
products
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99
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Group life
– insurance sponsored by employer for
employees
– or else could be for other “affinity groups”,
e.g. trade unions, professional associations
– based on mortality charge each year
– while rate for each individual goes up, rate
for group remains stable
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100
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Expenses
– expenses can be broken down into
• initial expenses
• on-going expenses
• claims expenses
– initial expenses include agent’s
commission and other expenses of issuing
policy, including underwriting
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101
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Expenses
– initial expenses can be very high, since
policy is for long term
– can exceed first year’s premium
– this means there is often “surplus strain”,
i.e. capital is needed to put new policy on
books
– reserve methods can mitigate this strain
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102
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Expenses
– on-going expenses, including taxes, need
to be assessed carefully
– will be paid many years into the future to
keep policy in force
– actuary must be aware of inflation and
other factors
– expenses also need to be controlled
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103
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Expenses
– claims expenses not as important as in
non-life insurance
– claims paid on basis of factual evidence,
i.e. death certificate or application for
maturity amount
– claims expenses for disability and health
policies much higher, more like non-life
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104
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Lapses
– companies need policies to stay in force in
order to recoup initial expenses
– lapses or surrenders are important to
monitor
– lapses highest in early years, as high as
15%
– lapses affect number policies to spread
overhead
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105
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Lapses
– anti-selection - those in poor health least
likely to lapse or surrender
– lapses connected with economic cycle - go
up during recessions
– deduction made from reserve to recoup
cost of unamortized expenses on surrender
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106
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Lapses
– actuaries sometimes discount lapses to
reduce cost of premium, e.g. for term
policies where there are no surrender
values
– these are called lapse supported policies
– policyholders seldom act against their own
interest
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107
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Lapses
– so lapses generally less than expected
– these policies seldom successful
– issue for supervisor - are there any lapse
supported policies in portfolio?
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108
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Investment income
– reserves need to be invested
– investments should be both high quality
and liquid
– investment of funds can help in country’s
development
– but might be challenge in developing
country
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109
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Investment income
– investment regulation follows three
possible models
• prudent person rule
• schedule of permitted assets, often with
maximum or minimum requirements
• matching of assets and liabilities
– often combination of some elements of all
three
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110
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Investment income
– in developed countries more technical
approaches used (e.g. prudent person and
matching)
– in developing countries expertise may not
be available
– more mechanistic rules often preferred
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111
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance reserves
– in principle follow same cycle as for non-
life insurance
• future claims
• incurred but not reported
• claims in process
• approved but not yet paid
– in practice claims cycle has different
emphasis
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112
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance reserves
– for permanent insurance (whole life &
endowment) claim will be paid eventually
– claims payment occur many years into
future
– claims are fixed amount, not based on
indemnity
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113
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance reserves
– therefore “unearned premium” approach
not applicable
– also IBNR and claims in process represent
very small proportion of total reserves
(maybe 1 to 2%, typically), as claims
settled very quickly
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114
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance reserves
– reserves for future claims calculated on
actuarial basis
– reserve = present value of expected
payments in future minus present value of
expected premiums
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115
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance reserves
– requires assumptions regarding
• mortality
• expenses
• lapses
• investment earnings
• other (e.g. disability, if disability waiver)
– these could change each year
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116
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance reserves
– company said to have strong reserves if
assumptions are conservative
– examples of conservative assumptions
depend on product
– for life insurance not assuming mortality
improvement is conservative
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117
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance reserves
– for annuity business assuming significant
mortality improvement is conservative
– for all types of business assuming lower
interest than expected is conservative
– for some types of business assuming no
lapsation might be conservative
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118
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mathematics of life insurance
• qx = probability of death during one
year at age x
• px = probability of survival for one year
at age x
• px + qx = 1
• npx = probability of survival for n years
at age x
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119
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mathematics of life insurance
• one year discount factor = v
• v = 1/(1+i)
• multi-year discount factor vn
• vn = 1/(1+i)n
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120
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mathematics of life insurance
• single pure premium formula for
immediate annuity is
• ax = vn * npx
• single pure premium for life insurance
• Ax = vn * npx * qx+n
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121
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mathematics of life insurance
• Reserve calculations for single
premium insurance policies
• y = valuation age
• Vy = vn * npy * qy+n
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122
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Mathematics of life insurance
• for annual premium insurance policies
value is single premium value minus
future expected premiums
• Vy = Ay - Px * ay
• Px = premium at age x, net of expected
expenses
• Ay = single premium reserve at age y
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123
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Managing both sides of balance sheet
– insurance companies must manage both
sides of balance sheet
– both assets and liabilities are based on
unknown future events
– managed on the basis of assumptions,
which themselves are changing
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124
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Managing both sides of balance sheet
– risks can be mitigated by matching
expected cash flows
– technique is called immunization
– simplest form is to ensure duration of
assets and liabilities equal
– more sophisticated methods now in use
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125
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus
– minimum capital and surplus varies from
country to country
– a minimum of $5 million is recommended,
given very considerable risks in starting
life insurance and annuity company
– lower in some developing countries, but
most are moving to EU/US standards
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126
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus
– continuing capital and surplus
requirements depend on volume of
business
– simple rule of thumb is 5% of liabilities
– EU rules is approx 4% of reserve plus
0.3% of sum at risk
– no capital requirement based on assets
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127
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus
– risk based capital formula has percentages
applicable to both assets and liabilities
– takes into account interaction between
assets and liabilities
– not recommended for developing countries
- too complex
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128
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus
– emerging approach - liquidity based
approach
– for large companies liquidity issues more
important than risk management
– still in formative stage
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129
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus
– illustration of risk based approach
C1 Asset side risks, eg, bond default
C2 Liability side risks, eg inadequate
premiums, insufficient interest
C3 Mismatch risk, eg cash flows out
of synch
C4 Other risks, eg business,
organizational
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130
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus - assets
Cash 0%
Government bonds 0%
AAA bonds 0.25%
BB bonds 4.0%
Mortgages, residential 2%
Mortgages, commercial 3%
Mortgages, restructured 15%
Stocks, preferred 1%
Stocks, common 15%
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131
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus - liabilities
Mortality risk
Amount at risk, participating policies 0.10%
Amount at risk, non participating 0.25%
Group insurance 0.20%
Statistical fluctuations
Total amount in force up to 10 million 1%
Over 10 million 0.75%
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132
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus liabilities
Morbidity risk
Health policies, annual earned premium 12%
Disability insurance reserves 4%
New claims risk
Annual earned premiums 12%
Continuing claims risk
Claims more than a year old 10%
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133
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus - liabilities
Statistical fluctuations
Capital and surplus requirements 1%
Interest margin pricing risk
Participating policies reserves 0.5%
Non participating reserves 1%
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134
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Capital and surplus - C3 & C4 risks
– first line of defence is risk management
– C3 (mismatch) risk could be allowed for
by 5% of life and health reserves
– C4 (organizational) risk difficult to
quantify
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135
Introduction to Life Insurance
• How life insurance companies are
valued
– three main ways
– rules of thumb, e.g. twice capital and
surplus
– by reference to similar companies
– actuarial valuation
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136
Introduction to Life Insurance
• How life insurance companies are
valued
– a company is worth:
– capital and surplus
– plus value of future profit for existing
business
– plus value of future business
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137
Introduction to Life Insurance
• How life insurance companies are
valued
– existing business - rules of thumb
• .75 to 1.75 X annual premium or
• 2% of reserve
– future business more tricky
• estimate of annual profit X factor of 10 to 12
• or look at franchise value (license, sales force,
software applications etc)
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138
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance accounting
– same as accounting for enterprises in
general
– except for deduction of increase in
actuarial reserves when calculating profit
– premiums enter income when due and paid
– no splitting between earned and unearned
premiums
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139
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance accounting
– investment income enters income when
due
– assets now mostly marked to market
– claims on incurred basis
– no division between underwriting and
investment profits
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140
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Why life insurance companies fail
– bad assets
• particularly in affiliated companies, non-
arm’s length loans
– liquidity problems
• over-concentration in one asset class,
particularly mortgages and real estate
• lack of attention to immunization
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141
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Why life insurance companies fail
– management changes
– rapid expansion of one line of business
• frequently health insurance
• rapid expansion could indicate
underpricing
– moving to new corporate headquarters
– small companies more likely to fail than
big ones
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142
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance company financial
statements - balance sheet
Cash 4 Actuarial reserve 79
Bonds 51 Claims reserves 4
Mortgages 19 Due to reinsurers 1
Real estate 7 accounts payable 1
Stocks 5 Total liabilities 85
Computer 1 Paid in capital 2
Due from reinsurers 3 Surplus 13
Deferred acquisition cost 10 Total equity 15
100 100
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143
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Life insurance company financial
statements - profit and loss
Premiums 18
Investment income 6
Total income 24
Claims 7
Increase in reserves 10
Expenses 5
Taxes 1
Total 23
Profit 1
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144
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Types of annuity
Annuity certain Payable for fixed
period
Life annuity Payable during
lifetime of
annuitant
Joint annuity Payable during
lifetimes of two
or more
annuitants
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145
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Types of annuities
Life annuity with
guarantee period
Life annuity
payable for n
years, then for
life
Increasing
annuity
Fixed annual
increase or
indexed to CPI
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146
Introduction to Life Insurance
• Types of annuities
Immediate
annuity
Payments start
right away
Deferred annuity Payments start at
some future date
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Reinsurance
• Topics covered
– Introduction
– different types of treaty
– reinsurer’s role in establishing new
companies
– reinsurance arrangement
– financial or finite reinsurance
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148
Reinsurance
• All companies use reinsurance to help
pay large claims
• Retention limit
• Treaty versus contract
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149
Question:
• Some World Bank consultants’ reports will
note that the companies in a developing
country reinsure all their business. The
consultant will then go into a tirade about
how he has discovered that the companies are
keeping only a small part of the risk and are
therefore similar to brokers selling for the
reinsurers.
• What should your response be?
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150
Two types of Reinsurance
• Facultative Reinsurance
• Treaty or Automatic Reinsurance
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151
Conditions Attached to Treaty
Reinsurance
• Ceder keeps the risk up to a stated amount
• Ceder does not reinsure his retention elsewhere
• Reinsurance applies to a specific policy form and ratebook
• Underwriting standards
• Source of business
• Location of business
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152
Treaty Indicates
Confidence in The Ceder
• All reinsurance subject to audit
• Role of a lead reinsurer
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153
Different Types of
Reinsurance Treaties
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Non-Life Reinsurance
• Excess Reinsurance (in excess of X)
• Proportional Reinsurance (Y% of the
Risk)
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Dividing the Risk Between
Companies A to F by Reinsurance
B
A
A B C D E
A
F
B
Chart 1 Chart 2 Chart 3
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Other Treaty Types
• Catastrophe Reinsurance
• Stop Loss Reinsurance
• Spread Loss Reinsurance
• Financial or Finite Reinsurance
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Non-Life Companies are
Dependent on Reinsurance
• The Principal Reason non-life
companies fail is bad reinsurance.
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Life Insurance Yearly
Renewable Term (YRT)
1The last year, x is equal to omega minus age at issue
AmountAt Risk
Year Policy in Force
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159
Mini Case:
Reinsurers Protecting Themselves
When an insurance company is asked if it
can insure a new risk, the first question it
will ask itself is, “How can we protect
ourselves?” What is it they are protecting
against and how do they do that?
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Reinsurer’s Role in
Establishing New Companies
• Provide policies, rates and technologies
• Impose discipline when regulators do
not
• Technology transfer without partner
owning the company
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Reinsurance Arrangements
• Pools: Third party administered
company
• Pools set up by the Insured
• Agent owned captives
• Captives
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ReinsurerA Reinsurer
BReinsurer
C
OIL WELL
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AGENT
INSURANCE
COMPANY
AGENT OWNED
CAPTIVE
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Offshore Reinsurance: Captives
• Access to Reinsurance
• Avoid Commissions
• Only their Own Risks in the Pool
• Reporting Requirements
• Reserving Requirements
• Marketing of Sophisticated Products
• Tax Advantages? Perhaps
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165
Fronting
• Regulator’s Perspective
• Insurer’s Perspective
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Tax Treaties
• Reinsurance follows the path laid out
by tax treaties between nations.
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Each item
can be defined
in many ways
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Reinsurance Treaty
Company 1 Cedes Business to Company 2
Premiums
Claims
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Reinsurance Agreement
Company 1 Cedes Business to Company 2
• Initial Premium of Reserve transfer
• Annual Premium
• Investment Income
• Risk Charge
• Commission Allowance
• Expense Allowance
• Claims
• Reserve Increase
• Profit Commission or
Experience Rating Refund
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3 Sets of Figures
• Getting Started
• Annual Events
• End the Treaty
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Financial or Finite Reinsurance
• Done primarily to achieve financial
result
• Work backwards to achieve financial
effect
• Each company is different
• No other industry can do this
• Must be actuarially correct
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Effects are not necessarily
complementary
• Different reserving assumptions
• Numbers are functions of other numbers in the statements
• Different accounting rules
• Unequal transfers of assets and liabilities
• Leverage in crossing borders
• Tax, statutory and GAAP statements use different rules
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Some Applications of Financial
Reinsurance
• Sales Capacity = Capital Capacity
• Manage cash flows
• Tax planning
• Expanding investment class restrictions
• Improved ability to set up reserves
• Optimal use of capital
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Prudential regulation
• Topics covered
– Introduction
– regulatory objectives
– reliance on others
– source of authority
– risk based supervision
– performance measures
– functions of regulator
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Prudential regulation
• Introduction
– section based on Canadian approach
– judged to be “best international practice”
– cost of supervision borne by industry
• insurance companies - around 1% of
premium
• deposit taking institutions - based on assets
– Superintendent appointed for a 7 year term
• free of political influence
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Prudential regulation
• Regulatory objectives
Main objectives Balanced by
Prevent undue
loss to
policyholders
Encourage
competition in
market place
Maintain
confidence in
financial system
Provide cost
effective service
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Prudential regulation
• Reliance on others
– objective is to provide cost-effective
service
– software packages
– appointed actuary
– meetings with external auditors
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Prudential regulation
• Reliance on others
– reliance on reports of actuary and internal
auditors
– checking working papers and systems
– review Board minutes
– meeting with Board
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Prudential regulation
• Source of authority
Insurance Act Passed by
Parliament
Regulations Promulgated by
government
Guidelines Issued by
regulator
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Prudential regulation
• Source of authority
– law has 10 year “sunset clause”
– obliges government to review and update
legislation at least once every 10 years
– interested parties in industry given
opportunity to comment on statutory
instruments
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Prudential regulation
• Source of authority
– often phase in provisions for strengthened
requirements, e.g. increase to minimum
capital and surplus
– legislation gives Superintendent authority
to move in quickly in problem situation
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Prudential regulation
• Why companies fail
Life insurance
companies
Bad assets
Non-life
companies
Bad reinsurance
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision
– risk based supervision possible when
regulator can rely on others
– contrast to compliance based supervision
– focus is on
• internal controls
• concentration of risks
• fluctuations
• ability to withstand adverse deviation
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision
– banking supervision - CAMELS
– insurance supervision - CARAMELS
– what does this mean?
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Prudential regulation
C capital
A assets
R reinsurance
A actuarial
reserves
M management
E earnings
L liquidity
S subsidiaries
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - capital
– level relative to
• minimum
• peers
– source
– composition
– trends
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - assets
– composition
– changes in the composition
– ratings of the different securities
– the risk of default
– prudent person rule
– underwriting strength of the company’s
investment personnel
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - reinsurance
• strength of reinsurers
• location of reinsurers
• liquidity in reinsurance treaties
• risks covered by reinsurance treaties
• exposure at upper limits
• exposure to tails
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - reinsurance
• retention limits
• amount and percentage ceded to
unregistered reinsurers
• security of any reinsurance trust
(probably require 110% of market
value)
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - reinsurance
• reinsurance not in the ordinary course
of business
• new reinsurance on old blocks of
business
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - actuarial
reserves
– accuracy of the data on the system
– accuracy and the appropriateness of the
computer codes
– correct classification of the liability
– valuation assumptions
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - actuarial
reserves
– claims liability
– incurred but not reported (IBNR)
calculations
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - management
– succession planning
– compensation plans e.g. do they pay
bonuses based on volume of production
rather than profitability
– is loyalty to the company or to the owners
– rotation of management
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - management
– to whom does the internal auditor report
– depth of management
– Board of Directors
• are there members who understand the
different issues?
• do minutes reflect what is happening in the
company?
• are any criminals involved?
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - earnings
– diversification of earnings by product and
by territory
– source of earnings
– trend in earnings
– stability of earnings, sustainability of
earnings, marketing plan
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - earnings
– experience in meeting corporate goals
especially if the plan has capital intensive
products
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - liquidity
– what amount of cash and near cash does
the company have in relation to its assets
and reserves
– what assets are not liquid
– what assets are liquid within a short period
of time but subject to market fluctuations
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - liquidity
– what is the relation of cash flow in to
cash flow out
– could the company withstand a run
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Prudential regulation
• Risk based supervision - subsidiaries
– are transfers to subsidiaries approved by
the Board of Directors?
– how much money flows to subsidiaries and
for what reasons? what values are shown
for the subsidiaries on the balance sheet?
– are controls in place that would prevent
transfers to the subsidiaries that would
impair the capital of the company
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Prudential regulation
• Performance measures
– work is underway to measure regulator’s
own performance
– work in progress, some measures more
advanced than others
– involve opinion polls and third party
evaluations
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Prudential regulation
• Performance measures
• preventing undue loss to consumers
– how many cents on dollar recovered from
insolvent institutions?
– Company ratings - 0 to 4
• percentage at each risk level
• movements between risk level
• quantification of failure at each level
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Prudential regulation
• Performance measures
• preventing undue loss to consumers
– accuracy of regulator’s predictions
– company strategy for reducing risk level
– measurement of results achieved
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Prudential regulation
• Performance measures
• maintaining public confidence
– survey of external rating
– polling of general public
– polling of senior executives in insurance
industry
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Prudential regulation
• Performance measures
• quality of supervisory service (under
development)
– Percent of staff meeting specified levels of
competence and education
– response to requests outside the normal
supervisory functions
– quality of internal services compared to
industrial standards
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Prudential regulation
• Performance measures
• competition (under development)
– measures to determine effect of
supervision on competition being
developed
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Prudential regulation
• Performance measures
• cost effectiveness (under development)
– comparison with other institutions and
jurisdictions
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Prudential regulation
• Functions of regulator
– regulator has limited resources
– cannot always do everything it wants to
– no advanced filing of policies and
premiums in Canada
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Prudential regulation
• Functions of regulator
– regulator does not check compliance
– if mandatory provisions missing, law
deems them to be present
– more effective use of regulatory resources
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Prudential regulation
• Functions of regulator
– in one jurisdiction 90% of time was spent
checking agent licensing
– but there was no licensing examination!
– time could be freed up for more useful
pursuits
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Review through financial ratios
• Early warning tests - what do they
mean?
– Tests have shown to be important
– values outside range correlated with
developing financial problems
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Review through financial ratios
• Early warning tests
– ratios are flags that warrant further
investigation
– few ratios outside normal range does not
necessarily signal a problem
– on the other hand, deterioration of ratios,
even within normal range, may be
worrying sign
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Review through financial ratios
• Early warning tests
– indicators are probably poorer in
developing countries than in developed
ones
– need to calibrate ratios for this market
– gives companies benchmarks to work
towards to ensure financial health
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Review through financial ratios
• 13 tests are shown
• tests 1 to 8 are for life insurance
companies
• tests 1 to 7 and 9 to 13 are for non-life
companies
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Review through financial ratios
Test
number
Name of test Definition Usual
range
1a Net
insurance
ratio
Net premiums
written/(capital +
surplus)
Up to 3X
1b Gross
insurance
ratio
Gross premiums
written/(capital +
surplus)
Up to 7X
2 Change in
net premium
Change in net premiums
written
-33% to
+33%
3 Change in
surplus
Increase/decrease in
capital + surplus
-10% to
+50%
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Review through financial ratios
Test
number
Name of test Definition Usual
range
4 Earnings
ratio
Net income/capital and
surplus
-3 to 20%
5 Surplus
relief
Commission and
allowances from
reinsurers/capital &
surplus
Up to 20%
6 Solvency
ratio
(capital + surplus)/(total
liabilities)
Minimum
life – 4.5%
Non-life –
15%
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Review through financial ratios
Test
number
Name of test Definition Usual
range
7 Investment
in real estate
and subs
Investment in real estate
and subs /(capital +
surplus)
Up to 60%
8 Default ratio
on mortgages
Mortgages in
default/(capital +
surplus)
Up to 6%
9 Loss ratio Losses incurred/earned
premiums
50 – 80%
10 Expense
ratio
Expenses/earned
premiums
20 – 35%
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217
Review through financial ratios
Test
number
Name of test Definition Usual
range
11 Combined
ratio
Loss ratio + expense
ratio
80 – 100%
12 Amounts due
from agents
and subs
Amount due/capital and
surplus
Up to 50%
13 Liquidity Liquid Assets/Claims
reserves plus unearned
premium reserves
Around
100%