Introduction to climate change Introduction to climate change work in Bangladesh work in Bangladesh

A.K.M. Saiful IslamInstitute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)

Training workshop on Regional Climate Modeling using PRECISFebruary 14-18, 2010, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Outline

Introduction to Climate Change Study Cell at BUET

Climate Change Conditions of Bangladesh

Regional Climate Change Modeling using PRECIS for Bangladesh

Climate Change Study Cell at BUET

Climate Change Study Cell

IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008.

The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh.

Launching CeremonyOn March 08, 2009

Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Management

Institution Frameworks

Syndicate

BOG

Director

Coordinator

Advisory committee

Liaison Committee

Research Teams

IWFM CCSC

Activities in 2008

Short courses

Two short courses on "Climate Change Training for Water Professionals”, were held on 17-19 November and 18-20 October of 2008 at DCE, BUET.

Short Course on "Climate Change Risks and Adaptation in Water Sector" held on 10-11 February, 2008 at DCE, BUET.

Activities in 2009

• M.Sc. Course in Climate Change Risk Management offered at IWFM

Course web site- http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam/climatecourse2009.html

• In future Certificate course will be offered for professionals

Activities in 2009

Total 20 participants will attend this workshop from various Gov. and Non-Gov. organizations. This workshop will be organized in collaboration with Met Office, UK and funded by DFID, UK.

Upcoming – Capacity Building Program

• In response to the call for project proposals for “Climate Change Trust Fund” from Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF), CCSC has submitted a project proposal which include-

Fifteen Research Proposals on climate change

Computational Facility Development for Regional Climate Change Modeling

Student Fellowship International Conference Organizations Institutional Strengthen of the Cell

Visit our Website for more information http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/

Changing Climate of Bangladesh

Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)

Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years

y = 0.0103x + 25.428

R2 = 0.2996

23

24

25

26

27

1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

(c)

Trends of Temperature of Bangladesh (1947-2007)

y = 0.0063x + 17.855

29.4

29.6

29.8

30

30.2

30.4

30.6

30.8

31

31.2

31.4

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Trends of Maximum Temperature

y = 0.0137x - 6.0268

20

20.2

20.4

20.6

20.8

21

21.2

21.4

21.6

21.8

22

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Trends of Minimum Temperature

Max. Temp. = 0.63 0C/100 year Min. Temp. = 1.37 0C/100 year

Meteorological Observational Stations in Bangladesh

ID Station Latitude Longitude Altitude Max. Temp. (0C per yr.)

Min. Temp. (0C per yr.)

11704 Barisal 22.72 90.37 2.1 m 0.0077 -0.0163

11706 Bhola 22.68 90.65 4.3 m 0.0170 0.0206

10408 Bogra 24.85 89.37 17.9 m 0.0117 0.0404

11316 Chandpur 23.23 90.7 4.9 m 0.0163 0.0161

11921 Chittagong 22.35 91.82 33.2 m 0.0224 0.009

41926 Chuadanga 23.65 88.82 11.6 m -0.0038 0.0217

11313 Comilla 23.43 91.18 9 m 0.0049 -0.0009

11927 Cox's Bazar 21.45 91.97 2.1 m 0.0295 0.022

11111 Dhaka 23.78 90.38 6.5 m 0.0119 0.0225

10120 Dinajpur 25.65 88.68 37.6 m -0.0213 0.0151

11505 Faridpur 23.93 89.85 8.1 m 0.0275   --

11805 Feni 23.03 91.42 6.4 m 0.0174 0.0331

11814 Hatiya 22.45 91.1 2.4 m 0.0261 -0.0202

10910 Ishardi 24.15 89.03 12.9 m 0.0032 0.0037

11407 Jessore 23.2 89.33 6 m 0.0147 0.0113

12110 Khepupara 21.98 90.23 1.8 m 0.0266 0.0037

11604 Khulna 22.78 89.53 2.1 m 0.0037 -0.0053

11925 Kutubdia 21.82 91.85 2.7 m 0.0416 0.0248

11513 Madaripur 23.17 90.18 7 m 0.0047    --

11809 Maijdicourt 22.87 91.1 4.9 m 0.0193 0.0204

41958 Mongla 22.47 89.6 1.8 m 0.0430 0.0104

10609 Mymensing 24.73 90.42 18 m -0.0086 0.0086

12103 Patuakhali 22.33 90.33 1.5 m 0.0328 0.026

10320 Rajshahi 24.37 88.7 19.5 m 0.0110 0.0027

12007 Rangamati 22.63 92.15 68.9 m -0.0039 -0.0178

10208 Rangpur 25.73 89.27 32.6 m -0.0259 0.0281

11916 Sandwip 22.48 91.43 2 m 0.0074 -0.0182

11610 Satkhira 22.72 89.08 4 m 0.0065 0.0107

41858 Sayedpur 25.75 88.92 39.6 m 0.0266    --

11912 Sitakunda 22.63 91.7 7.3 m 0.0581 -0.0212

10724 Srimangal 24.3 91.73 22 m 0.0030 0.0237

10705 Sylhet 24.9 91.88 33.5 m    -- 0.0057

41909 Tangail 24.25 89.93 10.2 m 0.0174 -0.0234

11929 Teknaf 20.87 92.3 5 m 0.0242 0.0236

Trends of TemperatureFor 34 ground measuring Stations of BMD

Monthly temperature over Bangladesh (1948-2007)

10

15

20

25

30

35

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Tem

pera

ture

(0 C

)

minimum

maximum

Month-wise Trends

Month Max. Temp.(0C per yr.)

Min. Temp.(0C per yr.)

January -0.0142 0.0104

February 0.0000 0.0340

March -0.0117 0.0220

April -0.0142 0.0121

May 0.0010 0.0052

June 0.0139 0.0103

July 0.0116 0.0075

August 0.0183 0.0081

September 0.0070 0.0031

October 0.0178 0.0078

November 0.0270 0.0289

December 0.0147 0.0270

Change of mean Temperature(0C/year)

Average Temperature in January (1948-2007)

Daily Maximum Daily Minimum

Maximum TemperatureMaximum increase: 0.0581 at ShitakundaMinimum increase: -0.026 at Rangpur

Minimum TemperatureMaximum increase: 0.0404 at BograMinimum increase: -0.023 at Tangail

Spatial Distribution of Trends of Temperature (1947-2007)

Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh

Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges.

Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation

Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards

“Climate Refugees” Effect on health and livelihood of coastal

people. Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. Hampered Food Security & Social Security.

The Sundarbans ..Mangrove forest?

Facing Climate Change

• National Awareness building– Capacity Building through Training – Innovative Research for knowledge generations

• Mitigation – Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology– Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc.

• Adaptation – – Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads,

Houses– Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood,

improve warning system, migrations

• Global Awareness & Justice– – Kyoto Protocol, COP15, COP16…. Raise our voice !

Regional Climate Change Modeling for Bangladesh

Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh

• PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET.

• Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3).

• LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100.

• Predictions for every hour. Needs more than 100 GB free space.

Domain used in PRECIS experiment

Topography of Experiment Domain

Zoom over BangladeshSimulation Domain = 88 x 88 Resolution = 0.44 degree

Predicted Change of Mean Temperature (0C) using A1B

2050 2090

Baseline = 2000

Predicting Maximum Temperature using A2 Scenarios

[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

Predicting Minimum Temperature using A2 Scenarios

Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d) using A1B Scenarios

2050 2090

Baseline = 2000

Predicting Rainfall using A2 Scenarios

[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

Change of mean climatic variables of Bangladesh using A1B

Scenarios

Temperate (0C)Rainfall (mm/d)

Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/d)

Month 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

January 2.61 0.34 0.03 0.03 0.42 0.99 1.24 0.21 0.12 1.66 1.02

February 0.61 0.55 1.38 1.01 1.24 1.88 0.45 1.10 0.53 1.61 0.76

March 2.42 1.02 4.82 3.04 1.87 3.07 0.99 3.62 2.84 1.27 3.59

April 5.84 1.38 11.46 5.99 2.82 7.84 11.41 6.60 8.39 8.74 3.66

May10.0

3 5.59 10.36 6.42 11.92 18.16 33.47 16.53 29.47 11.29 11.96

June17.0

6 7.90 14.79 13.59 10.84 21.48 12.87 12.93 7.24 10.04 11.70

July 7.20 9.07 7.97 8.13 7.32 11.26 5.62 10.26 10.31 6.33 9.98

August 7.39 5.46 5.11 3.92 9.79 6.67 7.46 13.60 10.65 9.13 9.59

September 4.49 6.71 5.47 7.83 7.51 8.82 10.29 10.80 10.52 8.18 7.48

October 5.68 1.48 4.16 2.76 6.16 3.11 1.89 3.94 2.55 8.84 7.58

November 0.14 0.16 0.41 0.91 0.03 0.73 0.08 1.91 0.27 1.23 0.51

December 0.14 0.06 0.10 0.26 0.06 0.18 1.09 0.04 0.13 0.32 0.03

Monthly Average Temperature (0C)

Month 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

January14.7

4 15.08 14.63 15.94 15.66 17.66 19.52 16.49 17.68 21.55 20.88

February14.2

7 21.18 20.18 22.36 20.61 20.65 23.14 25.37 24.50 23.00 23.32

March24.2

5 26.34 25.68 25.66 28.82 26.70 29.23 29.04 29.71 28.53 28.84

April27.9

5 32.36 29.10 31.28 34.07 31.96 31.29 32.64 32.81 31.53 34.52

May29.5

1 32.11 32.16 33.17 31.97 32.37 29.31 32.00 32.59 33.88 35.62

June29.1

8 31.42 30.66 31.44 30.82 31.56 31.94 31.18 37.24 34.80 35.07

July28.5

9 28.23 28.88 28.99 29.35 30.28 30.58 30.45 31.03 31.76 30.44

August28.1

9 28.24 29.06 29.65 28.62 30.34 30.26 29.31 30.12 29.93 30.09

September28.0

2 27.29 28.65 28.11 28.58 30.72 29.07 29.79 30.72 29.01 29.87

October25.2

4 25.21 27.10 27.29 26.14 28.48 28.22 29.25 29.72 27.82 29.09

November19.4

4 20.20 21.03 20.52 21.06 23.21 22.64 22.04 23.76 25.52 26.30

December14.4

8 17.37 17.86 18.53 16.24 18.85 19.99 18.26 19.36 20.90 20.80

Summary

Analysis of the historic data (1948-2007) shows that daily maximum and minimum temperature has been increased with a rate of 0.63 0C and 1.37 0C per 100 years respectively.

PRECIS simulation for Bangladesh using A1B climate change scenarios showed that mean temperature will be increased at a constant rate 40C per 100 year from the base line year 2000.

On the other hand, mean rainfall will be increased by 4mm/d in 2050 and then decreased by 2.5mm/d in 2100 from base line year 2000.

Recommendations

• In future, Climate change predictions will be generated in more finer spatial scale(~25km).

• PRECIS model will be simulated with other Boundary condition data such as ECHAM5 using A1B scenarios.

• Results will be compared with other regional climate models such as RegCM3 etc.