MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN BOARDSTATE OF THE AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM REPORT

2010

Prepared by:

MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN BOARDP.O. BOX 2310

YELLOWKNIFE, NWTX1A 2R3

NOVEMBER 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................................3LIST OF FIGURES.........................................................................................4LIST OF ACRONYMS....................................................................................6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................7

1.0 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................11.1 THE MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN.............................................................................21.1.1 Geography...........................................................................................................21.1.2 Communities.......................................................................................................41.1.3 Industry................................................................................................................41.2 HUMAN IMPACTS ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS...................................................51.3 APPROACH FOR SOAER 2010..............................................................................61.3.1 Traditional Knowledge.........................................................................................6

2.0 OIL SANDS DEVELOPMENT..............................................................82.1 THE OIL SANDS.......................................................................................................82.1.1 Environmental Management in the Oil Sands Region......................................132.2 CURRENT STATE OF THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT........................................142.2.1 Water Quality.....................................................................................................142.2.2 Water Quantity...................................................................................................192.2.3 In-Stream Water Uses.......................................................................................242.2.4 Aquatic Habitat and Biodiversity........................................................................272.2.5 Human Health and Safety.................................................................................35

3.0 HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENTS..............................................423.1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................423.1.1 Types of Hydroelectric Developments...............................................................423.1.2 Hydroelectric Developments in the Mackenzie River Basin..............................433.1.3 Approved, Proposed, or Potential Hydroelectric Power Facilities.....................443.2 INFLUENCE OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE

AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT.....................................................................................493.2.1 Water Quality.....................................................................................................493.2.2 River Flow.........................................................................................................503.2.3 In-Stream Water Uses.......................................................................................583.2.4 Aquatic Habitat and Biodiversity........................................................................583.2.5 Human Health and Safety.................................................................................61

4.0 CLIMATE CHANGE............................................................................644.1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................644.1.1 Context..............................................................................................................644.2 OVERVIEW OF MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN CLIMATE........................................644.3 ATMOSPHERIC AND REGIONAL DETERMINANTS OF CLIMATE.....................654.3.1 Greenhouse Effect............................................................................................654.3.2 Ocean-Atmospheric Influence on Climate.........................................................66

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4.4 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN.....................................674.4.1 Primary Climate Indicators................................................................................684.4.2 Secondary Climate Indicators...........................................................................734.5 INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT.........824.5.1 Water Quantity...................................................................................................834.5.2 Water Quality.....................................................................................................854.5.3 Aquatic Habitat and Biodiversity........................................................................874.5.4 In-stream Uses..................................................................................................924.5.5 Human Health and Safety.................................................................................93

5.0 CONCLUSIONS.................................................................................955.1 EFFECTS OF OIL SANDS DEVELOPMENT.........................................................955.2 EFFECTS OF HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENT.............................................965.3 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.........................................................................975.4 INDIRECT AND CUMULATIVE EFFECTS.............................................................985.5 GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE.........................................................................................99

REFERENCES...........................................................................................103

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 Existing hydroelectric power facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin...........................................................................................................44

Table 3.2 Formally proposed, approved, or identified potential hydroelectric power developments in the Mackenzie River Basin....................................44

Table 4.1 Climate change projections for 2050 for air temperature and precipitation at five locations in the Mackenzie River Basin........................73

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Sub-basins of the Mackenzie River Basin.....................................................3

Figure 2.1 Location of oil sands areas under development in the Mackenzie River Basin..................................................................................................11

Figure 2.2 Satellite Image of the lower Athabasca watershed, summer 2009, showing areas of oil sands development....................................................12

Figure 2.3 Historical annual runoff volume in the Athabasca River below Fort McMurray, 1958 to 2008......................................................................21

Figure 2.4 Licensed water allocations (%) from the Athabasca River, 2009................22

Figure 2.5 Total PAH concentrations (normalized to 1% TOC) in sediments from the Athabasca River delta, 1999 to 2009............................................28

Figure 2.6 Total population of ducks in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, 1955 to 2009............................................................................................................33

Figure 2.7 Scaup population in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, 1955 to 2009.54..............33

Figure 2.8 Mercury concentrations in walleye muscle from the Athabasca River and Lake Athabasca, 1976 to 2008, relative to other regional waterbodies.................................................................................................38

Figure 3.1 Location of major existing and proposed hydroelectric developments in the Mackenzie River Basin...............................................48

Figure 3.2b Average monthly flows in the Peace River at Peace River, Alberta, before and after operation** of the Williston Reservoir26.............................51

Figure 4.1 The atmospheric greenhouse effect............................................................66

Figure 4.2 Changes in the concentration of atmospheric CO2.....................................66

Figure 4.3 The water cycle...........................................................................................66

Figure 4.4 Average annual air temperature to 2009 at Inuvik, Yellowknife, Watson Lake, and Peace River.,.................................................................70

Figure 4.5 Average annual precipitation to 2005 at Inuvik, Norman Wells, and Yellowknife, NWT.137....................................................................................71

Figure 4.6 Estimated melt date at Fort Simpson, Yellowknife, and Dawson, Yukon Territory. 1.........................................................................................74

Figure 4.7 Five-year running average April air temperatures at Fort Simpson and Yellowknife...........................................................................................76

Figure 4.8 Freeze-up dates at Fort Good Hope, NWT and Whitehorse, Yukon...........77

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Figure 4.9 The permafrost zones of the Mackenzie River Basin..................................78

Figure 4.10 Changes in permafrost temperature at four sites in the Mackenzie River Basin..................................................................................................79

Figure 4.11 Ground settlement and permafrost thaw depth monitoring at the North Point summit site...............................................................................79

Figure 4.12 Ground settlement and permafrost thaw depth in the Mackenzie River Basin, 1991 to 2008...........................................................................80

Figure 4.13 Location of permafrost sampling sites.........................................................81

Figure 4.14 Example retrogressive thaw slumping of permafrost in northern Mackenzie River Basin................................................................................82

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LIST OF ACRONYMS

BC British ColumbiaBCEAA British Columbia Environmental Assessment ActCEAA Canadian Environmental Assessment AgencyCEMA Cumulative Environmental Management AssociationDDT DichlorodiphenyltrichloroethaneENSO El Niño Southern OscillationERCB Energy Resources Conservation BoardGCM Global Circulation Modelskm KilometresMAC Maximum Acceptable ConcentrationMAD Mean Annual DischargeMRBB Mackenzie River Basin BoardMW MegawattNTPC Northwest Territories Power CorporationNWT Northwest TerritoriesPAD Peace-Athabasca DeltaPAD-EMP Peace-Athabasca Delta Ecological Monitoring ProgramPAHs Polycyclic Aromatic HydrocarbonsPCBs Polychlorinated BiphenylsPDO Pacific Decadal OscillationRAMP Regional Aquatics Monitoring ProgramSOAER State of the Aquatic Ecosystem ReportTK Traditional KnowledgeWBEA Wood Buffalo Environmental AssociationWSC Water Survey of Canada

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Mackenzie River Basin Board (MRBB) includes representatives from federal and provincial/territorial governments and Aboriginal organizations, and was established under the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary Waters Master Agreement in 1997 to provide a cooperative forum for managing the water resources of the Mackenzie River Basin.

In 2004, the MRBB released its first State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report (SOAER 2003), to provide information on the state of aquatic ecosystems in the Mackenzie River Basin. The first SOAER used several environmental indicators to examine whether the MRBB’s environmental goals were being met in the Mackenzie River Basin. The report concluded that the aquatic ecosystem in the Mackenzie River Basin was generally healthy, but significant information gaps were identified that limited the assessment.

This report is the second Mackenzie River Basin State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report (SOAER 2010). Instead of repeating the basin-wide focus of the previous SOAER, this Report focuses on topics identified as key information gaps in the Mackenzie River Basin, including oil sands development, hydroelectric development, and basin-wide climate change, and their associated effects on the aquatic ecosystems in the basin.

OIL SANDS DEVELOPMENTThe oil sands in the Peace and Athabasca Sub-basins host some of the largest oil reserves on Earth. In the past decade, the pace of oil sands development in northern Alberta has increased substantially, and Fort McMurray has become the largest community in the Mackenzie River Basin. As of 2010, there were 91 active oil sands projects. Much of the oil sands development to date has occurred north of Fort McMurray, where bitumen deposits can be mined at the surface using open-pit mining practices that generate significant land disturbance and large tailings ponds. Oil sands facilities are not licensed to discharge waters used to extract bitumen, but do discharge site-drainage water and treated sewage to the Athabasca River and tributaries. There are six approved surface mining projects: of these, four are producing and two are under development. Outside of the Surface Minable Area, bitumen is removed from deeply buried oil sands deposits using in situ methods that do not disturb the land’s surface as much as the surface mines, but fragment terrestrial habitats and may affect groundwater resources. As of 2009, 602 km2 of the oil sands area was classified as disturbed, 130 km2 of which was tailings ponds.

Surface mining requires an average of 2 to 4 barrels of water to produce a barrel of oil; in situ methods require an average of 0.5 barrels of water per barrel of oil. The remaining water requirements come from recycled water or saline groundwater. The maximum permitted water withdrawal under existing water licenses is 2.7% of Athabasca River mean annual flow; under low flow conditions, withdrawals are capped at 1.3%. In 2008, oil sands operations consumed 145 million metres3 of water from the Athabasca River and its tributaries. This represented 0.73% of the Athabasca’s mean annual flow as measured at Fort McMurray.

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There are conflicting assessments of the long term rate of annual Athabasca River flow. While some published reports concluded that there has been little change in annual flow, others have reported decreasing annual flow. This has been further complicated by the use of different timeframes by which flow rates have been assessed. Aboriginal resource users have reported decreasing flows on the Athabasca River which are affecting their ability to access traditional navigation routes and harvesting areas.

There are a number of multi-stakeholder organizations that conduct monitoring in the oil sands area and downstream. Information on the impact of oil sands developments on water quality, particularly in the Athabasca River Basin, is evolving quickly. Since the release of recent reports, a number of organizations have reviewed the available information on water quality in the oil sands area and have examined the adequacy and credibility of monitoring programs. As a result, several thorough and credible reports have been published during the time that the State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report was being prepared. The Governments of Canada and Alberta are developing a world-class monitoring system to provide for improved scientific measurement of any impact downstream or downwind in Northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories and Manitoba. The integrated plan for oil sands monitoring will have increased ability to detect change, and will ensure a better understanding of natural variability and system responses to oil sands development activities.

While there has been uncertainty about the effects of oil sands development based on the results of scientific monitoring programs, this uncertainty does not exist within the downstream Aboriginal communities. Aboriginal residents of the area have reported deteriorating colour, taste, and odour of river water. People no longer drink directly from these waters as they once did, for fear of contaminants. Aboriginal residents have also reported poor fish health and palatability, relative to historical conditions. Similar observations have been made about waterfowl and aquatic mammals in the region.

There is currently insufficient research and data to determine whether existing oil sands activities are adversely affecting human health, either directly or indirectly. The Government of Alberta is currently working with Health Canada and First Nations to conduct a human health study in communities downstream of the oil sands.

HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENTHydroelectric power is a critical source of energy for much of the Mackenzie River Basin. British Columbia, Yukon, and the Northwest Territories, derive most of their electricity from hydroelectric generation. There are two main types of hydroelectric facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin – storage, where reservoir water is stored and downstream flow is regulated to match peaks and lulls in power demand and can also be regulated to provide flood protection for downstream communities; and run of river, which do not materially alter flow regimes. A hydroelectric facility typically requires a dam and reservoir.

The flooding of hydroelectric reservoirs changes terrestrial and riparian aquatic habitats to lacustrine habitats and can change water chemistry and temperature. Regulated flow regimes can affect downstream ecosystems MRBB SOAER 2010 (November 2011 Draft) 8

because they alter the natural flow patterns to which the downstream river reaches, the riparian habitat and wildlife, and long term resource users have adapted. Typically, the magnitude of these effects decreases downstream because of inputs from tributary river systems.

In the Mackenzie River Basin, the largest effect of hydroelectric power development on the aquatic environment and resources occurs from ongoing flow regulation from W.A.C. Bennett Dam and Williston Reservoir. Flow regulation in the upper Peace River has influenced the natural hydrograph of downstream reaches as far as Peace Point. The effects of the other, smaller hydroelectric facilities in the Athabasca and Great Slave drainages are comparatively minor. For example, the cumulative effects of the four Snare River hydroelectric facilities, north of Great Slave Lake, on water volume in the Mackenzie River Basin are not perceptible based on the available data.

Changes in the Peace River flow regime have been identified as the cause of ecological changes in the Peace-Athabasca Delta. However, recent studies have suggested that these ecological changes are the result of a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors, such as flow regulation and warmer and drier climatic conditions.

There is little first hand data available on the effects of hydroelectric facilities on water quality in the Mackenzie River Basin. This also extends to contaminant levels in fish. Water quality effects are believed to follow the same pattern as other northern reservoirs for which data are available, where mercury and other contaminants initially increase after flooding due to leaching and vegetation decay, but levels stabilize and decline over time as leaching slows and the rate of vegetation decay declines.

Hydroelectric facilities provide socioeconomic benefits such as electrical power and flood control and protection. Hydroelectric facilities can, depending on their location, also create opportunities for outdoor summer and winter recreation such as boating and ice fishing. The different forms of seasonal recreation stemming from reservoirs also create and support local commercial opportunities including ecotourism.

However, hydroelectric facilities can also pose safety hazards to people who use these watercourses for food harvesting, transportation, or recreation. Rapid changes in water levels can create hazards for shoreline activities. Rapid changes in flow volume and velocity below a dam can also be hazardous. In winter, rapid water level changes, as well as releases of relatively warm water, can destabilize ice cover. Traditional resource use patterns around hydroelectric facilities, regardless of their size, have changed. Harvest disruption occurs because access to hunting, fishing, and trapping areas becomes difficult or impossible because of reservoir flooding, debris, increased discharge, or unstable ice conditions.

Several new hydroelectric developments are being considered or have been proposed in the Mackenzie River Basin, including northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, northern Saskatchewan, and at locations throughout the Northwest Territories. Dunvegan, a proposed run of river dam on the Peace River, was approved by Alberta in 2009. The proposed Site C

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facility in British Columbia, downstream of the Peace Canyon Dam, like Dunvegan, would flood a narrow reach of the Peace River valley. Neither is expected to cause major changes to the river’s downstream hydrograph because as proposed, they would not alter the daily average flow regime controlled by Bennett Dam.

CLIMATE CHANGEAlthough the impacts of climate change are being felt most strongly in the northern portions of the basin, the entire basin will be affected by climate change, likely in some ways that have yet to be contemplated.

Changes in key climate indicators in the Mackenzie River Basin, such as air temperatures and freeze-thaw regimes, have been well documented. Temperature is affected by several broad climatic phenomena but on average has increased at a faster rate than most other regions on Earth. Fall freeze-up is generally occurring later, and spring melt is generally occurring earlier. The number of extreme warm days and extreme heavy precipitation days in the Basin have increased, while the number of extreme cold days has decreased. Increased temperatures are thought to be linked with increasing levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, decreasing surface albedo, changes in cloud cover, and enhanced transport of heat energy poleward by atmospheric weather systems. Anticipated changes in other climate variables, such as precipitation patterns, and their associated effects on river flows and lake levels, have not been consistently observed to date. Average precipitation rates have generally increased, but not consistently across the Basin on either a seasonal or annual basis. Consistent, basin-wide changes in annual stream flow have not been observed.

Permafrost degradation is the climate change indicator that will likely have the greatest single effect on aquatic environments, and on the lives and livelihoods of Mackenzie River Basin residents. Permafrost temperatures are generally increasing. Melting permafrost is changing basin hydrology and water quality, leading to secondary effects on aquatic habitats and the species that inhabit them. Melting permafrost also will directly affect industrial development in the basin, and community activities that are dependent on stable, frozen ground.

The effects of climate change on aquatic environments in the basin are less apparent, and to date these effects have not been clearly documented. Although the effects of climate change on aquatic environments in the Mackenzie River Basin are expected to be significant, the precise nature and magnitude of these effects remain uncertain. Baseline environmental data of any kind is in short supply in much of the Mackenzie River Basin, particularly in remote, northern areas, and currently limits the ability to examine or track long-term changes in environmental conditions across the basin. The effects of climate change on water quality and quantity are uncertain, as are the effects on aquatic species.

As aquatic resource availability and usability changes, people living in the Mackenzie River Basin will need to adapt and learn to manage climate-related changes, including new or greater hazards to human health and safety. Human health may be affected by changes in water and air quality, changes in the

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physical environment, and changes in resource availability that will come with climate change.

CUMULATIVE EFFECTSThe effects of oil sands development, hydroelectric development and climate change in the Mackenzie River Basin are and will continue to be cumulative, particularly for water quantity. For example, decreased upstream river flows during the summer caused by warmer, drier conditions may decrease the resiliency of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, intensifying the environmental effects of water withdrawals by oil sands operators as flows that approach the minimum ecological baseline become more common; conversely, higher winter flows generated by warmer temperatures and higher precipitation may increase downstream ecosystem resiliency. On the other hand, more winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow during the winter could increase winter river flows but decrease spring freshet flows. This could influence, for example, the potential for ice-jam flooding in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, which is probably the clearest example in the Mackenzie River Basin of where cumulative effects have generated ecological change on a landscape scale.

However, there is a great deal of uncertainty associated with any climate change scenario when it is related to water management strategies. Many positive feedback loops (when phenomena work together to generate or amplify an effect) and negative feedback loops (when phenomena work against one another to mitigate an effect) are as yet poorly understood. It is also important to recognize that there are other factors that will contribute to cumulative ecological change in the basin, including but not limited to population growth, species range shifts, and forestry, oil and gas, mining and other resource based activities.

Ecological change triggered by cumulative effects will be felt most keenly in the Mackenzie River Basin by those who still directly rely on the land, water, and its resources – Aboriginal residents – as a source of food, livelihood and cultural sustainability. Many Aboriginal residents, not all of them Elders, have already seen striking changes to the landscape and to their way of life during their lifetimes.

The uncertainty associated with cumulative ecological effects means that water managers in the Mackenzie River Basin cannot assume that the state of the aquatic ecosystem will remain stable over the long term. Proactive and adaptive water resource management, based on the precautionary principle, will help ensure that the Governments of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Northwest Territories, Yukon and Canada which share the Mackenzie River Basin can cooperatively manage the water resources to maintain the ecological integrity of the aquatic ecosystem, and cooperatively manage the use of the water resources sustainably for present and future generations, as set forth under the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary Waters Master Agreement.

GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE

Oil Sands

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It is currently difficult to comment on knowledge gaps related to oil sands effects on aquatic ecosystems because of the rapid and fundamental changes in the oil sands monitoring philosophy that occurred while this report was being drafted. It is extremely encouraging that the Governments of Alberta and Canada are revising the scope and scale of oil sands monitoring programs. The commitment by the Government of Alberta, Health Canada, and First Nations to conduct a human health study in downstream Aboriginal communities is equally encouraging.

The next MRBB State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report will report on the implementation of the integrated oil sands monitoring program, as well as preliminary results.

Hydroelectric Development

Water quantity data is generally available in watersheds that host hydroelectric facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin. However, there is very little information on water quality and aquatic ecosystem health data that is publicly available for hydroelectric facilities and their downstream reaches in the Mackenzie River Basin, regardless of the jurisdiction in which it is located. There is, as a result, very little commentary in this report that is specifically describes the impacts of hydroelectric facilities on water quality and ecosystem health in the Mackenzie River Basin

Climate Change

Climate change is affecting and will continue to affect all aspects of water management in the Mackenzie River Basin. There is, however, insufficient baseline climatic data available to inform water management decisions. This is partially a function of the scale and complexity of the climate change issue. However, there were instances in this report where proxy data from outside the Mackenzie River Basin was used to illustrate climate change trends because long term data was not available.

Traditional Knowledge

The Traditional Knowledge literature related to aquatic habitat in the Mackenzie River Basin described in this report represents a subset of a larger body of Traditional Knowledge literature from and about Aboriginal peoples within the five jurisdictions. Much of the documented Traditional Knowledge goes beyond the frame of “data” about water quality, quantity and aquatic resources, and instead has a much broader and integrated (including spiritual) perspective on aquatic issues in the Mackenzie River Basin.

The number of research projects that involve Traditional Knowledge in the Mackenzie River Basin is increasing but there are significant gaps in documented Traditional Knowledge. When compared with the availability of western science, Traditional Knowledge is underrepresented in all areas of the Mackenzie River Basin.

There are significant gaps in the available documented Traditional Knowledge related to the Report themes, particularly with respect to climate change.

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Available information on the effects of climate change is growing however, particularly in the extreme northern part of the basin. Traditional Knowledge related to hydroelectric development has been documented in the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, and Alberta; however most of the information predates the year 2000. Available Traditional Knowledge related to the oil sands region is concerned about the human health effects of oil sands development particularly those related to downstream effects on the Athabasca River. This has been a growing area of concern and study for communities in the region for some time now.

Given the significant gaps in available Traditional Knowledge, it was difficult to develop parallel discussions with the science synthesized for this report. Furthermore, the perspectives of Traditional Knowledge holders on the state of aquatic resources in the Mackenzie Basin differed from those of biologists or western scientists.

The integration of Aboriginal Traditional Knowledge and science-based assessments can be challenging, but each has different, complementary strengths. These include the systematic, structured nature of scientific investigations and the subtle, comprehensive understanding of long-term baseline conditions provided by Traditional Knowledge. In the Mackenzie River Basin, a vast, long-settled territory experiencing rapid, basin-wide changes not previously experienced by its inhabitants, both types of knowledge need to be considered to effectively detect, monitor, and manage environmental change.

General

There is currently no requirement to harmonize federal, provincial and industrial baselines, key indicators, analytical methods, and sampling frequency in water quality monitoring programs. Given the number of jurisdictions that share the Mackenzie River Basin, this makes it difficult to cooperatively manage the water resources.

Efforts by the Governments of Alberta and Canada to improve environmental monitoring in the oil sands region are encouraging; the integrated monitoring plan is designed to achieve a consistent regional approach in terms of sampling strategies, improved coordination of monitoring approaches and standardization and comparability of data. Efforts being undertaken by the Governments of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and the Northwest Territories to negotiate bilateral water management agreements for the Peace, Athabasca and Slave River Watersheds are likewise encouraging as these provide an opportunity to incorporate consistent water management protocols between jurisdictions.

In the face of ongoing developments and potential modifying factors such as basin-wide climate change, investigators may face a “shifting baseline”, which could limit the value and applicability of previous scientific studies, and may complicate the interpretation of local Traditional Knowledge, which is based on a long-term understanding of previously predictable, baseline conditions. Baseline characteristics of local aquatic ecosystems need to be continually tracked, using both science-based and Traditional Knowledge-based

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approaches—not simply to assess current change, but also to collect data against which future changes may be assessed.

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

The Mackenzie River Basin is Canada’s largest river basin, encompassing an area of 1.8 million square kilometres (km). The basin extends over five jurisdictions - the Northwest Territories (NWT), Yukon, British Columbia (BC), Alberta, and Saskatchewan. If the Mackenzie River Basin were a country, it would be the 18th largest on Earth.

The Mackenzie River Basin is rich in natural resources, which support everything from the traditional aboriginal economy to globally significant industrial activities. The waters of the Mackenzie River and its tributaries link upstream and downstream areas of the basin; activities in one area can affect aquatic environments in other areas. Because of these physical linkages and the numerous jurisdictions within the basin, environmental management in the Mackenzie River Basin is complex, and requires cooperation between the different governments and organizations charged with managing the basin’s natural resources.

The governments of Canada, BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, the NWT, and Yukon signed the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary Waters Master Agreement (The Master Agreement) in 1997. The Master Agreement established a cooperative forum for managing the water resources of the Mackenzie River Basin. The Mackenzie River Basin Board (MRBB), consisting of representatives from the federal government and provincial/territorial governments and Aboriginal organizations, was established to implement this agreement.

The MRBB has identified six goals for the Mackenzie River Basin:

Improve water quality;

Ensure sufficient water quantity;

Sustain in-stream water uses;

Ensure healthy, abundant and diverse aquatic species and habitat;

Ensure human health and safety; and

Ensure a knowledgeable and involved public.

The MRBB reports on the state of the Mackenzie River Basin aquatic ecosystem at five-year intervals. The first State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report (SOAER) was published in 2004 (SOAER 2003). SOAER 2003 described the current state of knowledge of aquatic ecosystems in the Mackenzie River Basin. SOAER 2003 identified gaps in knowledge and environmental monitoring, and highlighted the value of Traditional Knowledge (TK) as an integral component of ecological assessment1.

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The SOAER 2003 used several environmental indicators to examine whether the MRBB environmental goals were being met in each of the major sub-basins within the Mackenzie River Basin. The SOAER 2003 concluded that the aquatic ecosystem in the Mackenzie River Basin was generally healthy. However, the report identified concerns regarding information gaps, environmental trends, and monitoring and management practices. The report also included recommendations intended to address these gaps.

This report is the second Mackenzie River Basin State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report (SOAER 2010). Rather than repeating the basin-wide focus of the previous SOAER, the MRBB decided to focus on the current state of knowledge related to oil sands development, hydroelectric development, climate change and their current and potential effects on the aquatic environment of the Mackenzie River Basin.

1.1 THE MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN

1.1.1 Geography

The Mackenzie River system flows 4,241 km from its most southern, uppermost reach - the headwaters of the Athabasca River in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta - to the mouth of the Mackenzie River which drains into the Beaufort Sea in Canada’s Arctic Ocean. The basin covers an area of 1.8 million km2, or about 20% of Canada’s landmass, and includes portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, BC, the NWT, and Yukon. The average annual flow rate of the Mackenzie River is 9,910 cubic metres per second, which is 11% of all freshwater flowing into the Arctic Ocean from circumpolar countries1,2.

The Mackenzie River Basin includes six major sub-basins: the Athabasca (Alberta /Saskatchewan), the Peace (BC/Alberta), the Liard (BC/Alberta/Yukon/NWT), the Peel (Yukon/NWT), the Great Slave (BC/Alberta/Saskatchewan/NWT), and the Mackenzie-Great Bear (NWT) (Figure 1.1). Aquatic ecosystems in the basin include the river mainstems, several very large lakes, globally significant deltas, and many smaller rivers, creeks, wetlands, and lakes.

The Mackenzie River Basin includes four main physiographic zones: the Arctic coastal plain in the extreme north that includes the Mackenzie Delta, the mountainous Cordilleran region in the west, the flat interior plain dotted with lakes and wetlands, and the Canadian Shield to the east comprised of thin soils, lakes and wetlands. Natural Resources Canada (2006) The Atlas of Canada http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/environment/land/arm_physio_reg

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Figure 1.1 Sub-basins of the Mackenzie River Basin.

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1.1.2 Communities

Although the Mackenzie River Basin is very large, its human population is relatively small, consisting of less than a half-million people. Most basin residents live within several larger communities in the Athabasca and Peace River Sub-basins. The largest urban community in the basin is Fort McMurray (Wood Buffalo) Alberta, with approximately 76,797 inhabitants, plus (as of 2010) an additional “shadow population” of 23,325 temporary residents working at oil sands projects3. Grande Prairie, Alberta (approximately 50,000), Yellowknife, NWT (approximately 20,000), and Fort St. John, BC (approximately 20,000) are the next largest centres. Generally, the population density decreases from south to north in the basin.

The population of several communities in the basin increased substantially between 2001 and 2006 censuses, with the Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality, Grande Prairie area, and Yellowknife area populations growing by 24%, 22%, and 13%, respectively4. With the rapid development of oil sands projects in the lower Athabasca Sub-basin, the total population of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo more than doubled from 1999 to 20103. Some communities, such as Hinton, Alberta, Fort Nelson, BC, and Norman Wells, NWT, grew less rapidly, while the population of other communities (e.g. Watson Lake, Yukon and Aklavik, NWT) decreased between 2001 and 2006.

Many of the people living in the basin are Aboriginal, a designation which includes First Nations, Métis, and Inuit people. In less densely populated sub-basins, such as the Peel Sub-basin, the Saskatchewan portion of the Athabasca Sub-basin, and much of the NWT, over 90% of the population is Aboriginal1.

1.1.3 Industry

Mackenzie River Basin water supports many types of industry, the most important of which include agriculture, fossil fuel extraction/production, forestry, hydroelectric development, and mining. Municipalities and smaller settlements withdraw water for domestic use, and discharge treated wastewaters to the Mackenzie River system.

Agriculture is concentrated in the Peace and Athabasca River Sub-basins, and focuses on crops and cattle. Forest products are harvested throughout the basin, but forestry-related industries such as pulpmills and sawmills are found mainly in the Peace, Athabasca, and Liard Sub-basins. Conventional oil and gas developments are found within the Alberta, BC, and NWT portions of the Mackenzie River Basin, while oil sands development is occurring in the Athabasca Sub-basin. There are also a number of active mineral and coal mines in the basin.

Large hydroelectric developments, including the W.A.C. Bennett Dam and the Peace Canyon Dam, are located on the Peace River. Smaller hydroelectric developments are located in the Saskatchewan and NWT portions of the basin, and have been approved in Alberta.

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Two specific types of industrial development - oil sands and hydroelectric developments - are addressed in detail in this report. Other types of industrial development which are not described in this report were discussed in greater detail in the SOAER 2003.

1.2 HUMAN IMPACTS ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS

An ecosystem consists of a dynamic set of organisms living in an area, interacting with each other and the physical environment in which they live. Ecosystems are usually differentiated by some aspect of the natural environment, such as location, type of vegetation, topography, or other factors.

Aquatic ecosystems are located in or are dominated by water, and include both marine (ocean) and freshwater ecosystems. Minerals, organic matter, sediment texture, water quality and quantity, and other environment factors are key components of aquatic ecosystems. Freshwater ecosystems can include rivers, streams, lakes, ponds, reservoirs, and wetlands and can host an assemblage of organisms ranging from plankton to fish, mammals, and plants.

Aquatic ecosystems can be affected by many types of disturbance, which may occur over different time and spatial scales. While some disturbances can be catastrophic, resulting in permanent environmental change, many other disturbances occur gradually over long periods of time, or occur suddenly but infrequently5.

Aquatic ecosystems can be affected by both natural and human factors. Natural factors can include regional or global-scale processes such as volcanic activity, oceanic currents, or climate change, while small-scale natural factors can include animal activity (e.g., beaver dams), landslides, forest fires, and floods that can change the structure and hydrology of aquatic ecosystems. Not all impacts are negative, as forest fires and floods can restore nutrients to the environment, and can be part of a natural nutrient cycle.

Human impacts on aquatic ecosystems can be direct, indirect, and/or cumulative. Direct impacts physically alter the aquatic environment through human activity. These types of impacts can include pollution, water withdrawals, or the physical modification of aquatic habitat. Indirect impacts result from changes to the surrounding environment, such as changes in drainage patterns due to terrestrial habitat fragmentation or permafrost melting, which can affect water quality and/or quantity. Cumulative impacts result from numerous smaller impacts that, by themselves, may not be capable of triggering significant impacts, but together are enough to cause more pronounced change. A simple example of a cumulative impact might include the combined effects of climate change, a regulated flow regime, water withdrawals, and fishing pressure on a watershed’s fish population over time.

MRBB SOAER 2010 (November 2011 Draft) 5

Identifying cause and effect linkages can be difficult because of the complexity of aquatic ecosystems and the sheer number of direct and indirect impacts that can collectively trigger cumulative impacts. However, environmental monitoring can be used to provide “early warnings” of environmental change. These indicators can trigger further study to examine potential links between causes and effects.

1.3 APPROACH FOR SOAER 2010

This report focuses on the current state of aquatic ecosystems in the Mackenzie River Basin in the context of three major factors thought to affect transboundary water in the basin: oil sands projects in the lower Athabasca River Basin, hydroelectric developments, and climate change. All three issues are of interest and concern to basin residents and stakeholders.

Oil sands, hydroelectric developments and climate change, their observed or anticipated effects on aquatic ecosystems, and their water management implications in the basin, are described in three separate sections. The structure of this report is as follows:

Section 1.0 - Introduction. This section describes the Mackenzie River Basin, the Mackenzie River Basin Board, and the background and context for the SOAER reports.

Section 2.0 - Oil Sands. This section describes oil sands developments within the Athabasca oil sands region, and describes some of the observed and anticipated effects of oil sands development on aquatic ecosystems in the region.

Section 4.0 - Hydroelectric Developments. This section describes the different types of hydroelectric developments (current and proposed) within the Mackenzie River Basin, and their effects on aquatic ecosystems in the basin.

Section 5.0 - Climate Change. This section describes the global climate change phenomena, the observed and anticipated aspects of climate change in the Mackenzie River Basin, and the implications for aquatic ecosystems within the basin.

Section 6.0 - Conclusions. This section considers indirect and cumulative effects, draws conclusions regarding effects of these actions on the state of the basin’s aquatic environments, and identifies current knowledge gaps.

Section 6. - References.

The discussion of each of Oil Sands, Hydroelectric Development, and Climate Change is structured, where appropriate, around the MRBB goals for the Mackenzie River Basin, including water quality, water quantity, in-stream water uses, aquatic habitat and biodiversity, and human health and safety.

MRBB SOAER 2010 (November 2011 Draft) 6

1.3.1 Traditional Knowledge

Traditional Knowledge (TK) is generally defined as a continually evolving body of knowledge acquired by indigenous or local peoples through generations of direct contact with the environment. This knowledge has been accumulated through direct observation of the landscape and its resources. These observations often relate to extreme environmental conditions, because they can most directly affect people, land and resources. However, these observations can also shed light on broad landscape-scale changes, as well as interactions between environmental indicators that might not always be obvious when seen from a short term perspective.

Many Aboriginal communities within the Mackenzie River Basin have documented their values, experiences, and knowledge of the basin’s aquatic resources through various initiatives, including land claim negotiations, environmental assessment processes, and other studies. Most of the studies incorporated in this report might not be considered to be TK in a strict sense, but are still relevant, given that they reflect a local and community perspective on water management issues or describe valued ecosystems components identified as important by TK holders.

The Mackenzie River Basin Board’s Traditional Knowledge and Partnerships Committee was tasked with gathering and reviewing TK from the Mackenzie River Basin related to the three main themes of the 2010 Mackenzie River Basin State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report, namely Oil Sands, Hydroelectric Development, and Climate Change. TK is included in SOAER 2010 to incorporate knowledge about the state of aquatic resources in the Mackenzie River Basin from the long-term perspective and extensive knowledge base of local Aboriginal peoples. In some cases, TK cannot be directly linked to specific industrial developments or human-caused changes, but instead describes cumulative effects or changes in ecosystems that are complex and difficult to reduce to simple cause-effect relationships. In other cases, Aboriginal people living in the basin have provided observations directly linked to resource development in their traditional lands.

The SOAER 2010 includes TK found in oral histories, traditional land use and ecological knowledge studies, environmental assessments, community-based and regional-monitoring initiatives, and other sources, with a focus on the most recent decade (i.e., 2000 to 2009). However, there are geographic, temporal, and thematic gaps in TK that are relevant to the SOAER 2010. The two major sources of information in the SOAER 2010 - TK and scientific investigations - are therefore presented together.

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MRBB SOAER 2010 (November 2011 Draft) 7

3.0 OIL SANDS Development

Oil sands are deposits of sand and other sediments whose interstitial spaces (the space between particles) are filled with water and bitumen, which is a naturally occurring, viscous mixture of hydrocarbons6. Using complex industrial processes, bitumen can be separated from sediment and water and processed into synthetic crude oil, which is refined for use as gasoline, jet fuel, home-heating fuels, and many other products7.

Alberta contains the second largest oil reserves in the world. Most of Alberta’s oil resources are found in the oil sands, which cover an area of approximately 140,000 square km in three areas of northeastern Alberta: the Athabasca, Cold Lake, and Peace River areas. Athabasca and Peace River oil sands areas fall within the Mackenzie River, while the Cold Lake oil sands fall within the Nelson River Basin. However, all oil sands surface mining occurs only in the so-called Surface Mineable Area north of Fort McMurray (). Alberta’s oil sands contain an estimated 170 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil6,8, although up to 315 billion barrels could be potentially recovered with the development of new technologies. In 1990, oil sands reserves under active development amounted to around 500 million cubic metres; by 2008, they had increased to 4,300 million cubic metres, thanks to improvements in extraction technology, new discoveries and an increase in the global demand for crude oil. From 1999 to 2009, an estimated $91 billion was invested in oil sands projects, and almost $170 billion in oil sands-related projects were proposed or were underway8.

The development of Alberta’s oil sands resources is controversial. Uncertainty regarding the environmental effects of oil sands development is perhaps the most significant issue, and is driven by concern about the pace and scale of oil sands development and the effectiveness of environmental monitoring and management initiatives currently in place. Disagreement among scientists, policymakers, industry representatives, and environmental and Aboriginal groups is common. Aboriginal people who reside in the Athabasca oil sands area have expressed many concerns about the safety of drinking water and the safety of traditional foods.

Aboriginal people and many members of the general public have expressed concerns about other issues related to oil sands development, including their role in global climate change, effects on human and community health, implications for Aboriginal ways of life, and the health of fish, wildlife, and ecosystems.

3.1 THE OIL SANDS

Alberta’s oil sands lie beneath the earth’s surface at various depths. North of Fort McMurray, the oil sands occur near the surface and, in

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some locations, are exposed at the surface where the Athabasca River and its tributaries have eroded the landscape9.

Oil sands deposits within 75 m of the earth’s surface can be recovered by open-pit mining, while deeper-lying bitumen must be recovered using in situ (in place) techniques. While open-pit mining currently accounts for most oil sands production, less than 20% of the Athabasca oil sands area, and 3% of Alberta’s total oil sands area, can be exploited through surface mining9. Open pit mining typically requires two to four barrels of fresh water to produce one barrel of oil. The remaining water requirements are met by recycled water. Tailings ponds are built to contain and manage the by-products of open-pit mining, many of which are toxic.Most of Alberta’s remaining bitumen is recoverable only through in situ extraction, which involves drilling into buried oil sand deposits and injecting either steam or solvents to reduce the viscosity of bitumen so that it can be pumped to the surface. In situ facilities require about 0.5 barrels of fresh water to produce one barrel of oil, the remaining water requirements are met through recycling or from saline groundwater. In situ facilities have smaller terrestrial footprints than surface mines and do not require large tailings ponds, but do require supporting infrastructure like roads, seismic-line, and pipelines, which can fragment the environment and do cross streams and waterways. As of August 2010, there were 91 active oil sands projects in Alberta’s three oil sands areas. Of these, six mining projects have been approved: four of these projects are currently producing bitumen, and two are under construction. The remaining projects use various in situ recovery methods10. As of June 2009, oil sands (mineral rights) agreements with the Province of Alberta covered an area of approximately 82,500 square km, with over 40% of the oil sands areas still available for leasing. Much of the surface mineable area (approximately 3,500 square km of 4,800 square km) has been leased; as of 2009, 602 square km was classified as disturbed; tailings ponds accounted for 130 square km of the disturbed area (Figure 2.3). Future development of oil sands facilities in the lower Athabasca River is planned to include additional surface mines (in the Surface Mineable Area north of Fort McMurray) as well as numerous in situ developments. Because most oil sands deposits can only be developed using in situ methods, in situ extraction facilities will dominate future oil sands development.Fort McMurray is the largest community in the Mackenzie River Basin, and the fastest growing. This causes its own effects on aquatic ecosystems, through increased fishing/hunting pressure, infrastructure development and activities, and through withdrawals and discharges of water to the Athabasca River: the city’s newly commissioned wastewater treatment plant has a maximum designed discharge capacity of 125 million litres/day11 or 46 million cubic m/year, nearly 50 times greater than combined discharges from all oil sands facilities in 2008. This domestic wastewater discharge may be a source of

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metals, organic contaminants, and endocrine-affecting compounds to the Athabasca River, and represents an indirect effect of oil sands development on the aquatic ecosystem.

What is bitumen?

Bitumen is a thick, heavy type of petroleum that does not flow unless it is heated or diluted 12. Aboriginal people in the Athabasca oil sands region traditionally used exposed bitumen to waterproof their canoes6. Bitumen was also said to be used in the ancient Middle East as mortar, and was used in early photographic technology13.

Bitumen contains sulphur, heavy metals, metalloids such as arsenic and selenium, and a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of varying size and structure, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and naphthenic acids. Several constituents of bitumen are of concern to stakeholders within the oil sands region due to their potential effects on human and aquatic ecosystem health. Bitumen is exposed to surface waters along the banks of the Athabasca River and several of its tributaries, and many of the chemicals of concern are naturally present in the environment. Bitumen processing results in the release of these chemicals from the ore body, resulting in elevated concentrations of certain heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and naphthenic acids in tailings fluids. Some of these contaminants have recently been shown to find their way into environment. (Kelly et al 2009, 2010)

In many instances, the direct and indirect impacts of oil sands projects are so extensive that the known cultural landscape no longer exists. As a result, people will have to participate in developing a connection with their ‘‘new’’ landscape as it undergoes continual transformations. For instance, at times the construction will begin at the water table thus instituting a new hydrologic regime, terrain, and vegetation cover than previously existed in that location (Source: Garibaldi, A. (2006). TEK project: Integration of Traditional Environmental Knowledge in Land Reclamation (for the Albian Sands Energy Inc. and Fort McKay Industrial Relations Corporation). Fort McKay: Fort McKay-Albian Sands Energy, Inc.).

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Figure 2.2 Location of oil sands areas under development in the Mackenzie River Basin.14

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Figure 2.3 Satellite Image of the lower Athabasca watershed, summer 2009, showing areas of oil sands development.

Water Monitoring

Water Quality Monitoring Water quality is monitored regularly by Alberta Environment at five Athabasca River locations (upstream of Hinton, at the town of Athabasca, upstream of Fort McMurray, upstream of Firebag River (since 2008), and at Old Fort) and in several tributaries in the mineable oil sands region. Further information and data are available from the Alberta Environment website at: http://environment.alberta.ca/2024.html.

Environment Canada also monitors water quality in the Wood Buffalo region, including the Athabasca River in Wood Buffalo National Park, Peace River at Peace Point, and the Slave River at Fitzgerald (in conjunction with the Alberta government).15

Water Quantity Monitoring: Water Survey of Canada (WSC) The WSC collects and interprets water quantity data for the Athabasca River, which is available from the WSC website at: http://www.ec.gc.ca/rhc-wsc/.

Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP) RAMP is an industry-funded science-based environmental monitoring program that has sampled several components of the aquatic environment annually since 1997. RAMP is reviewed every five years and in 2010 undertook the second independent peer review of its existing aquatic monitoring program to assess and update its program. More information about RAMP, results of aquatic monitoring, and the scientific review are available on the RAMP website at: www.ramp-alberta.org.

Muskeg River Watershed Integrated Monitoring Program The Alberta Government and industry joint integrated monitoring program is a partial fulfillment of the monitoring requirements under the existing Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act approvals. The program monitors water quality and water quantity upstream and downstream of surface mining sites. The main purpose of the monitoring program is to implement the recommendations of the Muskeg River Interim Management framework that establish targets and limits for water quality and water quantity. More information is available at: http://environment.alberta.ca/01241.html

Other Monitoring Programs

The Peace-Athabasca Delta Ecological Monitoring Program (PAD-EMP) is a long-term monitoring initiative intended to determine, measure, evaluate and communicate the state of the Peace-Athabasca Delta ecosystem, including any changes that result from cumulative regional development, and make recommendations to government for changes to regulations, policies and water management practices as needed to restore, protect and safeguard the ecological integrity of the area.

The Slave River Delta and Partnership (The Partnership) was formed in 2010 to support community participation in developing and implementing community-based monitoring programs for the Slave River and Delta under the Northern Voices, Northern Waters: NWT Water Stewardship Strategy. The Partnership also promotes and supports research and monitoring activities to address concerns and questions raised by community members about the ecological health of the Slave River and the ecosystem it supports.

The Slave River Environmental Quality Monitoring Program (SREQMP) conducted ecological monitoring on the Slave River from 1990 to 1995. More information on SREQMP is available at: www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/ai/scr/nt/ntr/pubs/sre-eng.asp

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3.1.1 Environmental Management in the Oil Sands Region

Oil sands development is regulated by government legislation and associated policies and monitoring programs to protect the environment and human health. The Alberta Government uses several acts to regulate oil sands development: the Oil Sands Conservation Act, the Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act and the Water Act.

Oil sands projects are also subject to federal legislation, including the Fisheries Act, Canadian Environmental Protection Act 1999, Migratory Birds Convention Act, Navigable Waters Protection Act, and Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. Several federal departments also conduct research on oil sands activities in accordance with their mandates and participate in multi-stakeholder initiatives involved in environmental management in the oil sands region.

Oil sands projects are reviewed and approved under these Acts. Once approved, the applicant is required to undertake environmental monitoring and reporting throughout the project life span and through reclamation, when the land is to be returned to a natural condition. Additional monitoring programs are undertaken by Alberta and Federal Governments to ensure that the environment and human health are protected.

Water Management

Water Management Framework: In-stream Flow Needs and Water Management System for the Lower Athabasca River Developed jointly by Alberta Environment and Fisheries and Oceans Canada, this framework is designed to protect the ecological integrity of the lower Athabasca River by balancing water-use requirements with ecosystem protection needs. Alberta and the federal government are currently updating the existing framework, which is expected to be completed by 2012. The current framework is available at: http://environment.alberta.ca/01231.html.

Oil Sands Mining Water Management Agreement This agreement was signed in December 2008 by Suncor, Syncrude, Shell Albian, and CNRL. The agreement resolves to cumulatively limit water withdrawals from the Athabasca River in order to meet withdrawal targets set out by the Water Management Framework for the Athabasca River. The Oil Sands Mining Water Management Agreement is available at: http://environment.alberta.ca/01232.html.

Cumulative Effects Management Association Surface Water Working Group CEMA was formed in 2000 and consists of Athabasca region stakeholders and regulators. The Surface Water Working Group is tasked with developing a recommendation for the lower Athabasca River Phase 2 Water Management Framework, establishing the in-stream flow needs of the lower Athabasca River, defining indicator criteria and thresholds of the lower Athabasca River used in managing activities to ensure watershed integrity, and communicating information on surface water quantity to the public. The Phase 2 framework is available at: http://cemaonline.ca/cema-recommendations/phase-ii-water-management-framework.html

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3.2 CURRENT STATE OF THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT

Government agencies, academic scientists, local communities, oil sands operators, and multi-stakeholder monitoring organizations, such as the Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP) and the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), have collected scientific data and traditional knowledge related to the aquatic environment. The Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA) and the Terrestrial Environmental Effects Monitoring program (a component of WBEA) monitor atmospheric and terrestrial conditions in the region.

Data from these monitoring programs are intended to provide information on how aspects of the Athabasca River, its tributaries and delta, wetlands, and Lake Athabasca have changed over time, and how aquatic ecosystems might differ upstream and downstream of oil sands development. However, there are numerous data gaps, which have led to uncertainty about the impacts of oil sands activities on the aquatic ecosystems in this region.

For SOAER 2010, the current state of the aquatic environment within and downstream of the Athabasca oil sands region was assessed by examining aspects of the aquatic environment for each of the MRBB water management goals. Where information was available, aspects of the aquatic environment were assessed in relation to changes over time, comparisons between areas upstream and downstream of oil sands development, and comparisons to scientific standards or guidelines.

3.2.1 Water Quality

Information on the impact of oil sands developments on water quality, particularly in the Athabasca River Basin, is evolving quickly. Since the release of recent publications (Kelly et al (2009, 2010); Schindler (2010), Timoney and Lee (2009, 2011)), a number of organizations have reviewed the available information on water quality in the oil sands area and have examined the adequacy and credibility of monitoring programs. As a result, several thorough and credible reports have been published during the time that the State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report was being prepared.

The following is a synopsis of key reports that document and discuss aspects of the state of the aquatic ecosystem in the basin. The geographic focus of these reports is the Athabasca River in the vicinity of and downstream of oil sands mining operations.

October 2009 Does the Alberta Tar Sands Industry Pollute? The Scientific Evidence (Timoney and Lee; The Open Conservation Biology Journal)

http://www.globalforestwatch.ca/publications_and_maps.htm

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This study documented increases in contaminants in water, sediment, and fishes downstream of industrial sources; significant air emissions and major pollution incidents; and the loss of 65,040 hectares of boreal ecosystems. Some contaminant levels pose ecosystem or human health risks, which deserve immediate and systematic study. Projected tripling of tar sands activities over the next decade may result in unacceptably large and unforeseen impacts to biodiversity, ecosystem function, and public health.

December 2009 Oil sands development contributes polycyclic aromatic compounds to the Athabasca River and its tributaries (Kelly, Short, Schindler, Hodson, Ma, Kwan and Fortin; The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/04/0912050106

This study confirmed that oil sands development is a greater source of contamination than was previously realized. The results indicate that major changes are needed to the way that environmental impacts of oil sands development are monitored and managed.

August 2010 Oil sands development contributes elements toxic at low concentrations to the Athabasca River and its tributaries (Kelly, Schindler, Hodson, Short, Radmanovich and Nielsen; The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

http://www.pnas.org/content/107/37/16178

This study found that the oil sands industry releases the 13 elements considered priority pollutants under the US Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Water Act, via air and water, to the Athabasca River and its watershed. Bitumen upgraders and local oil sands development were sources of airborne emissions. Canada's or Alberta's guidelines for the protection of aquatic life were exceeded for seven priority pollutants - cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, silver, and zinc - in melted snow and/or water collected near or downstream of oil sands development.

November 2010 Tar Sands Need Solid Science (Schindler; Nature)

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v468/n7323/full/468499a.html

This report described the current environmental monitoring programs for Alberta's waterways as sporadic and poorly designed. So far, no government agency seems to have taken full responsibility for ensuring adequate monitoring of the Athabasca River and its tributaries. To restore public trust, a panel of independent scientists and community leaders should be formed to provide oversight of this monitoring program. Results should be published in peer-reviewed scientific papers, and reported to the public at large.

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December 2010 Environmental and Health Impacts of Canada’s Oil Sands Industry (Royal Society of Canada)

http://www.rsc.ca/creports.php

The Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel reviewed and assessed available data on the environmental and health impacts of the development of the Athabasca oil sands. The major findings of the report address health and environmental issues, including: impacts of oil sands contaminants on downstream residents, impacts on population health in Wood Buffalo, impacts on regional water supply, regional water quality and groundwater quantity, impacts on ambient air quality and greenhouse gas emissions, tailings pond operation and reclamation, feasibility of reclamation and adequacy of financial security, and environmental regulatory performance.

December 2010 A Foundation for the Future: Building an Environmental Monitoring System for the Oil Sands (Oil Sands Advisory Panel)

http://www.ec.gc.ca/pollution/default.asp?lang=En&n=E9ABC93B-1

The Panel concluded that the work carried out to date has not led to a consensus on the degree of impacts, primarily because the inconsistency in the quantity of data and literature made it difficult to develop a comprehensive view of the evidence of oil sands impacts across environmental media. The Panel recommended that oil sands monitoring needs to be improved and coordinated: monitoring programs need to be integrated, holistic, adaptive, credible, transparent and accessible.

January 2011 RAMP 2010 Scientific Peer Reviewhttp://www.ramp-alberta.org/ramp/results/ramp+2010+scientific+peer+review.aspx

RAMP was evaluated on its ability to meet the RAMP review goal and the RAMP program objectives. The reviewers concluded that the existing RAMP protocols are not sufficient to detect changes if they occur; the present program cannot sufficiently identify potential sources resulting in the change(s) of changes are detected; and not all of the appropriate questions are being asked by RAMP and not all appropriate criteria are being monitored to answer those questions.

March 2011 Evaluation of Four Reports on Contamination of the Athabasca River System by Oil Sands Operations (Water Monitoring Data Review Committee)

http://www.environment.alberta.ca/documents/WMDRC_-_Final_Report_March_7_2011.pdf - 2011-03-09

The Committee concluded that it is in the best interests of the public and the oil sands industry to make sure all monitoring programs are conducted with scientific rigor and oversight. This monitoring should consider effects in tributaries, especially during critical periods of flow

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in the river. The accumulation of residues in the delta, Lake Athabasca and their biota also merit special attention, with expanded biological monitoring and focused scientific investigations to assess risk.

March 2011 Lower Athabasca Water Quality Monitoring Plan – Phase 1 (Environment Canada)

http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/default.asp?lang=En&xml=1A877B42-60D7-4AED-9723-1A66B7A2ECE8

The Phase 1 monitoring plan deals with surface water quality monitoring in the mainstem of the Athabasca River and its major tributaries, between Fort McMurray and the Wood Buffalo National Park Boundary. It focuses on the physical and chemical attributes of water quality. Subsequent phases in the development of the water quality monitoring program will include biological endpoints and "effects-based" monitoring and assessments, and the expansion of the geographic scope to include environments further downstream in the Athabasca River system where appropriate, and upland lakes in the air shed that could be affected by aerial contaminant deposition from oil sands development. In keeping with the guidance of the Federal Panel, this plan will be continuously updated and refined to ensure its relevance and technical competence.

May 2011 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Increase in Athabasca River Delta Sediment: Temporal Trends and Environmental Correlates (Timoney and Lee; Environmental Science & Technology)

http://www.globalforestwatch.ca/

This study found that total Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in the sediment of the Athabasca River Delta increased between 1999 and 2009. Within four tributaries of the Athabasca River, only the Clearwater River showed a significant correlation between discharge and sediment PAH concentration at their river mouths. Carefully designed studies are required to further investigate which factors best explain variability in sediment PAH concentrations.

June 2011 A World Class Environmental Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting System for Alberta (Alberta Environmental Monitoring Panel)

http://environment.alberta.ca/03289.html

The Panel concluded that environmental monitoring in Alberta currently consists of a collection of individual monitoring networks around the province that have differing objectives, governance and operational structures. These networks do not form an integrated system and are not optimally configured to support cumulative effects management or the environmental management frameworks associated with regional plans. The current and future development of world-scale resources in the oil sands region makes scientific, credible and transparent environmental monitoring an imperative for Alberta and Canada. The Panel recommended that an arm’s length, science-based, transparent

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monitoring system for air, land, water and biodiversity be implemented for the Lower Athabasca region.

July 2011 An Integrated Oil Sands Environment Monitoring Plan (Environment Canada)

http://www.ec.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=56D4043B-1&news=7AC1E7E2-81E0-43A7-BE2B-4D3833FD97CE

In response to concerns raised about the state of oil sands monitoring, the Minister of the Environment committed the Government of Canada to lead, in collaboration with Alberta and independent scientists, the development of an environmental monitoring plan for the oil sands. The integrated approach expanded on the Phase 1 Water Quality monitoring plan to integrate air and biodiversity monitoring, as well as broader water quality monitoring and effects assessment. This Plan will provide the scientific foundation necessary to detect problems in the region and provide governments and industry with the information that they need to ensure the environmentally sustainable development of the oil sands. 

A key theme common to each of these reports is that while some impacts of oil sands development on water quality have been demonstrated, there is no consensus on the full scope of impacts and there is a great deal of uncertainty. However, there is consensus that current monitoring systems are not adequate to assess impacts properly. As of the publication of the SOAER, the governments of Alberta and Canada are working collaboratively to develop a world-class environmental monitoring system for the oil sands area.

Tailings Ponds

Tailings are the mixture of water, sediment, and residual bitumen left after extraction. Because no process waters or tailings can be discharged directly to the Athabasca River, tailings are pumped from extraction and froth treatment facilities to settling basins and tailings ponds, and are stored on site at oil sands mines16. As of 2009, tailings ponds covered an area of approximately 130 square km17.

Tailings are composed of water, dissolved salts, metals, organic chemicals, minerals, and residual bitumen. Concentrations of dissolved solids—including sodium, chloride, sulphate, bicarbonate, and ammonia—are many times higher than in natural surface waters of the region. Organic compounds in tailings water include naphthenic acids, benzene, phenols, phthalates, PAHs, toluene, oil and grease, and others. Constituents of tailings-pond water are known to be toxic to aquatic organisms, with naphthenic acids—which can be present in concentrations as high as 130 mg/L—thought to be the main source of acute toxicity.

Concerns about tailings ponds relate to the potential for catastrophic failure of  containment dykes and associated release of contaminated water to the aquatic ecosystem, groundwater seepage through the dykes or foundation, and uncertainties regarding reclamation and the long-term sustainability of the developed landscape18,19,20.

One study estimated that over 11 million litres of contaminated water seep into the environment from the oil sands tailings ponds each day.21 The 11 million litres figure (=11,000 m3) is generally not disputed; this volume represents approximately 0.01% of the average flow of the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray.  Other studies have suggested that the

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amount of seepage is unknown. The contaminant loading and ecological impacts of seepage from oil sands tailings ponds have not been closely examined to date.

The Alberta Government has been criticized for the lack of transparent information related to tailings pond seepage. Further studies quantifying the amount of seepage into the environment, and publicly available information related to seepage, are needed.

In February 2009, the provincial Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB) issued Directive 074, which will require that existing and future oil sands operations convert their tailings facilities to reclaimable, firm (“trafficable”) surfaces within 5 years after active tailings deposition ceases. Enforcement of this directive will be phased in from 2011 to 2013, with the expectation that this initiative will reduce the total amount of stored liquid tailings and speed up environmental reclamation of these areas.22 Some operations have been allowed by ERCB to phase in compliance with Directive 074 over a longer schedule.23

3.2.2 Water Quantity

Water quantity refers to the amount of water within an aquatic ecosystem, and the seasonal patterns of its movement through the drainage basin. Aquatic organisms can adapt to the natural patterns of river flows and lake levels. The timing and level of river flows, lake levels, and water movement through a basin are determined by climatic conditions, but can be affected by human activities. Activities associated with oil sands development, including site clearing, wetland drainage, damming/diverting/eliminating/repositioning watercourses, water releases, and water withdrawals, can lead to changes in the natural hydrology of drainage basins, and therefore changes in aquatic habitat. Climate change may also affect water quantity, as discussed later in this report.

3.2.2.1 Athabasca River Flows and Water Withdrawals

Between 1957 and 2009, the mean annual rate of flow in the Athabasca River downstream of Fort McMurray was 623 cubic metres per second. The maximum flow rate measured during this period was approximately 4,700 cubic metres per second, while the minimum flow rate measured approximately 100 cubic metres per second (Source: Water Survey of Canada Hydrometric Data for Athabasca River below Fort McMurray Site 07DA001 http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/applications/H2O/graph-eng.cfm?station=07DA001&report=daily&year=2009).

Natural water flow patterns in the Athabasca River downstream of Fort McMurray are typical of many northern, mid-continental rivers24. Usually, two or more peaks in flow—which can be about five times higher than the lowest summer flows—are observed during the open-water season, from about the middle of April until the end of October. High flows result from headwater and local runoff, especially during spring melt. Less variable low flows occur from December to March. During the winter, several lakes (e.g., Richardson Lake in the Athabasca Delta), river side-channels, tributaries, and backwaters freeze, sometimes to the bottom, limiting or eliminating overwintering habitat for fish. The Athabasca River itself can become covered by as

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much as a metre of ice, and capped by another metre of snow. During the winter, groundwater becomes a comparatively more important source of water in many of the aquatic systems within the basin15. Alternating cycles of wet and dry periods are apparent in river flow data for the Athabasca River. However, annual flows at Fort McMurray have been lower than the long-term historical average in most years since 1990 (Figure 2.4).

Most hydrometric monitoring stations on unregulated rivers in the Mackenzie River Basin showed an increasing trend in winter (December to April) flows (with some showing decreasing winter flows) and increasing annual minimum flows, as well as earlier onset of the spring freshet between 1960 and 200025. The study also found weak decreasing water flow trends in early summer and late fall.

The same study concluded that within the Athabasca River Sub-basin, data indicated that there were few significant water quantity trends that could be observed. Significant trends, when they were detected, were often inconsistent across the basin. A 2004 analysis concluded that there were no apparent long-term trends in the total amount of water flowing in the Athabasca River each year (annual runoff yield), based on river flow data collected at the town of Athabasca (upstream of oil sands development) between 1913 and 200126. Data collected by RAMP just downstream of Fort McMurray have also found no statistically significant long-term trends in annual runoff, maximum daily mean flow, or minimum daily mean flow27.

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Figure 2.4 Historical annual runoff volume in the Athabasca River below Fort McMurray, 1958 to 2008.

Other studies have concluded that flow in the Athabasca River has in fact changed over time. One study found that, downstream of Fort McMurray, the average river flow, average high flows, and average low flows were all lower during 1996-2006 compared to 1966-1976 consistent with the decreasing trend in daily mean flow at Athabasca and at Fort McMurray (upstream of oil sands development) since 1960, as reported in another study. Various researchers have found that summer flows have decreased over time28,29. Some investigators report that in general, winter flows have increased in the Athabasca River Sub-basin29, while other researchers report a long-term downward trend in lowest winter flows28. Water withdrawals from the Athabasca River have the potential to affect in-stream habitats for fish and other aquatic organisms, habitat connectivity, and dissolved oxygen levels, particularly in areas of fish overwintering24. These changes to aquatic habitat can lead to effects on the abundance and distribution of aquatic organisms themselves. Maintaining a flow regime within the river that is as close to natural as possible may be the key to protecting aquatic ecosystems in the basin30,24.

Alberta Environment administers licenses for withdrawing water from the Athabasca River under the Alberta Water Act. Oil sands mining operations withdraw water from the Athabasca River, and use other sources of water— including tributaries, surface runoff, and groundwater—for use in oil sands processing and site utilities31, In situ operations typically withdraw groundwater for use in steam production. Oil sands facilities are not licensed to discharge waters used to extract bitumen, but do discharge site-drainage water and treated sewage to the Athabasca River and tributaries.

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Licensed water allocations from the Athabasca River Sub-basin (including from the Athabasca River directly, from groundwater sources, and from surface runoff sources) for use in oil sands developments increased between 2005 and 2009, from over 348 million cubic metres in 200531 (existing and approved developments) to over 534 million cubic metres in 200932. In 2009, oil sands water allocations accounted for over 70% of all licensed water allocations from the Athabasca River (Figure 2.5)33. Shell Canada, Syncrude, and CNRL projects had the highest water allocations in 2009.

Figure 2.5 Licensed water allocations (%) from the Athabasca River, 2009.

Mean annual Athabasca River flow at Fort McMurray: ~19,960 million m3/year

Volume of total water licenses allocated in 2009: ~750 million m3

Volume of water licenses allocated to oil sands industries: 534 million m3

RAMP estimated that actual water withdrawals from the Athabasca River by oil sands projects in 2008 were 118 million cubic metres (approximately 29% of total 2008 licensed withdrawals) while project discharges to the river (consisting primarily of water from site drainage or muskeg dewatering, but also including treated domestic sewage), were 1.02 million cubic metres, resulting in a net flow reduction of 117 million cubic metres. Oil sands activities in tributaries of the Athabasca River (i.e., Calumet River, Christina River, Ells River, Firebag River, Fort Creek, Hangingstone River, MacKay River, Mills Creek, Muskeg River, Steepbank River, and Tar River) resulted in an additional estimated net reduction of 28.0 million cubic metres water, for a total annual consumption (withdrawal volume minus returned water volume) of 145 million cubic metres. This is 0.73% of the average annual flow of the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray (WSC station), which measures 19,960 million cubic metres. The licensed water use of 534 million cubic metres was equal to 2.7% of the total annual flow.

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In 2008, RAMP estimated that the cumulative effect of these industrial water withdrawals and discharges would be a 1.0% reduction in the annual flow volume in the Athabasca River. Other estimated cumulative effects included a 0.8% reduction in the average open-water season flow, and a 2.2% reduction in average winter flow. Overall, the annual maximum daily flow was estimated to be reduced by 0.5%, and the open-water season minimum daily flow was estimated to decrease by 1.1%.

The MRBB commissioned researchers from the University of Alberta, University of Waterloo, Environment Canada and the National Research Council to develop a hydraulic model that could describe flows in the Mackenzie River Basin34. This model examined downstream effects of water withdrawals in the lower Athabasca River and of the W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the Peace River. The Athabasca/Peace/Slave River Sub-basins includes the Athabasca River and Lake Athabasca; however, when water allocations were considered, the Athabasca River withdrawals were calculated separately and the Athabasca Lake allocations were considered negligible. The mean annual flow of the Peace River at Peace Point is 68,000 million cubic metres, of which 250 million cubic metres (0.36%) are allocated (licensed) for withdrawal. Actual annual consumption (withdrawal minus return flow) is 120 million cubic metres, which is 0.18% of the average annual flow of the Peace River35. The mean annual flow of the Slave River at Fitzgerald is 107,000 million cubic metres. The total annual consumption from the Peace and Athabasca Rivers combined is approximately 265 million cubic metres, or 0.25% of the total annual Slave River flow (Lake Athabasca consumption is considered negligible).

The effects of the withdrawal of 100 million cubic metres from the lower Athabasca River was found to have an “almost negligible” effect on daily flows in the Athabasca River downstream of oil sands development. This withdrawal quantity used was generally representative of current, actual water withdrawals by oil sands developments, but approximately five times less than withdrawals currently allowed by license. A recent modeling study of winter flows in the Athabasca delta36 found that reduced upstream flows could result in smaller delta channels freezing to depth in winter, which would disrupt connectivity and reduce available aquatic habitats under ice. Specifically, an upstream flow reduction of 20 cubic metres per second (approximately 20% of minimum winter flows downstream of Fort McMurray) was predicted to result in 53% of Fletcher Channel freezing to depth.

For more information on the Mackenzie River Basin Hydrologic Model’s use and limitations, see the Hydroelectric Developments section of this report.

Aboriginal resource users have reported that water quantity in the Athabasca River has decreased over time. A recent survey of Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation and Mikisew Cree First Nation Elders and resource users found that:

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“Without exception, respondents reported that the seasonal flow of the Athabasca has changed over their lifetimes, that the trend is for the [Athabasca] river to be lower than in the past, and that the reduction in flow is making it more difficult for boat travel or subsistence practice. Many of the participants identified oil sands withdrawals as the most likely cause of reduced water levels on the Athabasca. Many participants also mentioned or described the cumulative effects occurring in delta areas as a result of the combined influence of reduced water flowing from the Peace River watershed, including the W.A.C. Bennett Dam, and reduced water flowing from the Athabasca River”.

As one respondent put it:

“… for me, it would be devastating. I won’t be able to travel on the river for one thing … But it’s hard to imagine, you know, just imagine where you used to travel. All of a sudden it’s land, you can’t travel on it anymore… Even now, you see a big change. How much change there is since I started out living on my own? I used to take a canoe and paddle almost all around the territory, now you can walk where I used to paddle. You can walk. That’s how much the water has changed, all the water’s gone. As for the community, I don’t know, the younger generation I don’t know, unless they happen to change, I don’t think there will be anybody going on the land anymore after this … it’s pretty hard to speak for the next generation or this generation coming but my generation we’re all getting old now so you know our time is almost up. But it is going to be sad to see things go. I know if they take too much water the river’s going to be really, really shallow, especially in the fall. The only time I can see them taking it, if there is a big push, like a big rush coming from the mountains and that, during that high water, if they take it then but if they take it during low water, it’s going to destroy our fishing and everything … I hope I don’t live to see the day. I don’t want to die but I don’t want to see that.” (Mikisew Cree First Nation 2010)

3.2.3 In-Stream Water Uses

The aquatic resources of the Athabasca River Sub-basin support a number of different users, activities, and purposes of use. The increase in the population of the region due to oil sands development has led to increased pressure on the aquatic resources in the area.

3.2.3.1 Transportation and Recreation

A large group of local people within the Athabasca oil sands region, including Aboriginal people and other residents who live along the Athabasca River, use the river mainstem on a regular basis for travel1. Aboriginal Peoples who live mainly in Fort Chipewyan, Fort MacKay, and Fort McMurray have depended on the Athabasca River as a “highway” since ancestral times, traveling up and down the river for activities such as trading, shopping, work, hauling wood from sawmills,

Sometimes spelled Fort McKay.

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accessing the railway, and summer hunting and fishing37. Many are still highly dependent on boat travel to access their traditional lands. In low flow years such as 2006, many Aboriginal resource users have been unable to reach their cabins due to the low water levels37.

The Athabasca River’s importance to aboriginal communities was described as follows:

“…it is the passage to go to the hunting grounds and … to go and stock up on groceries in Fort McMurray. That’s important. ” (Mikisew Cree First Nation 2010)

The use of the Athabasca River for transportation is particularly important for residents of Fort Chipewyan, an isolated community located on the shore of Lake Athabasca. In the spring, summer, and fall, the only access to Fort Chipewyan is by air or by boat on the Athabasca River. The number and timing of barges transporting essentials from Fort McMurray to Fort Chipewyan has changed significantly over the years. This is likely partly due to the federal government’s cessation of dredging and maintenance of river navigational aids in 199738, but also may be due to low river levels37.

The lower Athabasca River watershed is known for its in-stream recreational opportunities, including river touring, fishing, wildlife viewing, camping, water sports, swimming, canoeing/kayaking, jet-boating, river-rafting, and ecotourism39,40,41. With the increase in the local population, particularly in and around Fort McMurray, the demand for in-stream recreation and access to the waterbodies within the basin is also steadily increasing. For example, the number of non-powered river craft in Fort McMurray alone is expected to reach 3,000 vessels by 201142.

While recreation opportunities in the basin are abundant, a number of different factors limit the sustainability of increasing recreational use. These factors include significant areas of poor drainage, several shallow eutrophic lakes not suitable for swimming or fishing, limited accessibility to usable water bodies, slow-growing fish populations that are sensitive to over-fishing, and a short summer season available for warm-weather recreation and tourism42,43. Increased human activity in aquatic ecosystems that are suitable for recreational and other uses may lead to pressure on aquatic habitat and resources.

Changes in the use of the Athabasca River and basin waterways for transportation by Aboriginal people are a significant issue in the Athabasca oil sands region. The traditional and current way of life for Aboriginal Peoples depends on adequate water flow and water quality in the Athabasca River and waterways of the basin37. The importance of the Athabasca River to residents living downstream of the oil sands has been summarized as follows:

“The Athabasca River itself is our main travel route into the heart of our Traditional Lands. Without adequate water quality or quantity in the

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river system, we cannot access our important cultural, spiritual, and subsistence areas and we cannot sustain the health and well-being of our families on the traditional foods that we have always obtained from it”. (Chief Allen Adams, Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation and Chief Roxanne Marcel, Mikisew Cree First Nation 2010)

Transportation concerns extend into the winter months as well. Aboriginal residents have observed changes in river ice. “Ice is no longer blue in winter. It is slushy and weaker” (Johnny Courtereille, Fort Chipewyan, interviewed in 2007).

Living with the Oil sands

“Before the railroad, highway came into Fort McMurray, everyone lived off the land. The land provided meat, fish, berries for food, timber for their cabins, and roots and herbs for the sick. People can still live off the land as long as the young people know how to do it. I wish they wouldn’t destroy our land that we have lived on for so many years. I want the oil outfits, sawmill and loggers to have a little respect for traditional lands. They should talk to some older people so those people can tell them what is out there and how we can all share and enjoy it. There is still survival out there.” –Julian Powder, Fort MacKay, AB Fort MacKay First Nation (1994) There is Still Survival Out There.

3.2.3.2 Fishing

The lower Athabasca River Sub-basin supports sport fishing, domestic angling, traditional Aboriginal fish harvesting, and some commercial fishing1, given the abundance of popular fish such as walleye, goldeye, whitefish, northern pike, and other species44. Commercial fishing is limited to walleye and whitefish on several lakes in the region; Lake Athabasca has commercial quotas for lake whitefish, walleye, northern pike, cisco, yellow perch and lake trout.

Sport fishing in the Athabasca oil sands region has increased due to growing local populations, increased visitation to the area, increased accessibility, and decreased opportunities for fishing elsewhere due to urban and industrial development. These have all contributed to increased pressure on regional fish populations45,46,47.

In 2002, the Fort McMurray visitor guide identified approximately 30 lakes and several rivers as potential recreational fishing spots within the region45, and the most recent tourism guide promoted fishing as one of the major activities available to visitors44. A growing number of fishing lodges and tour operators are willing to fly, boat, and otherwise transport their visitors to a number of lakes and rivers within the basin (e.g., Christina Lake, Gregoire Lake, Gypsy Lake, Namur Lake, Winefred Lake, Athabasca River, Christina River, Clearwater River), increasing the accessibility of these areas.

Sport fishing demands in the lower Athabasca region are high. For example, despite the commercial walleye fishery, 80% of the walleye caught annually in Alberta are obtained recreationally. In 2005, walleye, yellow perch, and northern pike accounted for the largest proportion of fish caught by recreational anglers in the Northern Boreal

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fish management zone, which includes the Athabasca oil sands region48.

Aboriginal people have fished in the lower Athabasca River since ancestral times. Today however, many Aboriginal people are afraid to eat the fish they have traditionally relied on. “Oil sands development in the Athabasca region has had devastating effects on our people. We are afraid to drink the water or eat the fish from the river as we have always done.”(Pat Marcel, Fort Chipewyan elder, interviewed in 2008, ACFN Source: Pembina Institute (2008) Northern Leaders Tour Oil Sands http://www.pembina.org/media-release/1647 ).

3.2.4 Aquatic Habitat and Biodiversity

Aquatic ecosystems include living organisms and the environments they inhabit. This section focuses on aquatic habitat and the abundance, health, and diversity of aquatic organisms in the oil sands region.

3.2.4.1 Sediment Quality and Aquatic Insect Communities

The bottom sediments of aquatic ecosystems include particles of different sizes (silts to boulders), shapes, origin, and chemical composition49. These bottom sediments are an important component of aquatic ecosystems50. Benthic invertebrates, small organisms that are an important food for fish and other aquatic animals, live in or on bottom sediments, while many species of fish lay eggs there. Sediment quality—the type and concentration of chemicals found in the sediments—can significantly influence the health of aquatic organisms.

Sediment quality can vary at different locations and over time because of variability in environmental conditions, including river flow and rainfall/ runoff events, that affects the erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment. The characteristics of bottom sediments can change as new suspended sediment is deposited on the river or lake bottom, or as bottom sediments are disturbed, resuspended, and carried by the water. These changes can affect the benthic invertebrate community and other aquatic organisms.

Chemicals associated with sediments can lead to toxic effects on plants and animals, and can accumulate in the tissue of aquatic organisms, including benthic invertebrates and the fish that prey on them. Sediments can act as both sinks and sources of chemicals in the aquatic environment: chemicals attached to sediment particles can accumulate as sediment is deposited, and can also be re-released into the water from the bottom sediments.

The RAMP 2010 Scientific Review recommended that benthic invertebrate and sediment quality sampling protocols and statistical analysis needed to improve or change before monitoring is able detect ecological impacts of oil sands development with confidence. RAMP results are described below because the program provides most of the

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information currently available on benthic invertebrates and sediment quality. However, conclusions based on RAMP data should be interpreted with caution

RAMP analysed concentrations of hydrocarbons, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs), and total metals annually each fall since 1999 from sediment samples collected from the Athabasca River mainstem near Embarras and from the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD). RAMP also sampled sediment quality in the Athabasca River mainstem, western Lake Athabasca, and other locations in the PAD, as well as in several Athabasca River tributaries. RAMP concluded that the concentration of hydrocarbons, total PAHs, and metals in sediments from Embarras and the PAD vary from year to year, but did not consistently increase or decrease at individual sites (Figure 2.6). RAMP also found that concentrations of hydrocarbons and PAHs in samples from the Athabasca River mainstem, tributaries, and regional lakes were also variable, and higher concentrations were sometimes observed upstream of oil sands development than were observed downstream. Most Athabasca River sediments had total PAH concentrations within the range observed in tributaries, except at sites near large bitumen outcrops, where PAH and other hydrocarbon concentrations were sometimes much higher.

A more recent study found that total PAH concentrations in the sediment of the Athabasca River Delta increased between 1999 and 2009 at a rate of 0.05 mg/kg/yr. Total PAH concentration in the sediment of the PAD increased over the past decade, as did total organic carbon. The increase in total PAHs and total organic carbon increased over the past decade in the absence of other drivers suggests that landscape disturbance within the watershed caused increased loading of both PAHs and organic carbon.

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Figure 2.6 Total PAH concentrations (normalized to 1% TOC) in sediments from the Athabasca River delta, 1999 to 2009.

Analysis of sediment samples from the region concluded that concentrations of individual types of PAHs were higher than sediment quality guidelines, indicating the potential for harmful effects on aquatic organisms. Laboratory testing has found that sediments from the lower Athabasca River and PAD can be toxic to invertebrate organisms, although results have been variable.

RAMP analysis did not identify negative relationships between concentrations of hydrocarbons, PAHs, or metals and aquatic insect community indices in paired benthos-and-sediment samples. In the PAD, RAMP also concluded the composition of the benthic invertebrate community—the community of organisms living within or on bottom sediments—varies from year to year. Under RAMP monitoring, no consistent changes over time were observed since annual sampling began in 2002.

RAMP observed changes in the benthic invertebrate community in some tributaries or regional lakes in recent years. In the lower Tar River for example, organism abundance, richness, diversity, evenness, and percentage abundance of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (the three insect orders commonly used to test water quality) decreased after the beginning of large-scale disturbance for oil sands development, relative to previous years. RAMP re-evaluated the benthic invertebrate community in 2009 in the lower Tar River and concluded that the community structure was similar to pre-development conditions. In Isadore’s Lake and in several watercourses draining areas with oil sands development, the benthic invertebrate

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community has also changed over time, or is different from communities observed in regional rivers and creeks undisturbed by oil sands development.

3.2.4.2 Aquatic Habitat and Fish Communities

Oil sands developments significantly alter the natural landscape, and productive fish habitat can be altered or lost through the elimination, diversion, damming, or repositioning of watercourses. Fish populations are also affected by changes in flows and water levels, physical habitat structures, habitat connectivity, water quality, sediment quality, and aquatic insect communities resulting from oil sands or other human development (e.g., forestry, urbanization)42. The increased human population in the oil sands region—and increased fishing—is another source of pressure on regional fish populations.

As of 2009, oil sands development has significantly altered the watersheds of many Athabasca River tributaries and lakes in the oil sands region. The extent of land disturbance in most watersheds ranges from less than one percent (e.g., Christina River, Ells River, Firebag River) to over 20% (e.g., Mills Creek, McLean Creek, Tar River) of the basin, while a few watersheds have been more extensively disturbed (e.g., Shipyard Lake, 93%, and Fort Creek, 63%). In several of these watersheds, flows are different from what they likely would have been in the absence of development. Small streams and wetlands known to support fish have already been lost, or will be lost as development proceeds—with effects on fish populations. For example, the diversion and channelization of Beaver Creek, completed in 1976, led to the loss of Arctic grayling and northern pike from this system42.

Oil sands developers are required to replace any fish habitat lost or degraded as a result of their activities, under the “No Net Loss” policy of the federal Fisheries Act. For large surface-mine developments, this typically requires development of new watercourses and/or lakes on or near these development leases. Compensation agreements typically require development of new habitat in excess of the existing habitat being affected, but these compensation habitats may not always be similar to the affected habitats they replace (e.g., new lake habitat may be developed to compensate for lost stream habitat). Many large compensation projects are now underway at surface mine locations, but the long-term success of these projects is currently unknown.

Fish species in the Athabasca oil sands region exhibit a wide variety of life-history processes and habitat and food preferences. A number of small-bodied fish species (forage fish) reside in the small creeks, wetlands, and lakes in the oil sands region, and are an important source of food for larger fish. Other fish species are resident in or travel through the Athabasca River mainstem, larger tributaries, Lake Athabasca, and the Peace-Athabasca Delta, but may rely on smaller watercourses for spawning, early rearing, and food production42,45.

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Long-term monitoring of fish populations in the Athabasca oil sands region is essential to understand the potential and actual effects of oil sands development on aquatic ecosystems. In almost every year since 1997, fish inventories have been conducted on the Athabasca River to document information about fish populations. The inventories collect information on the abundance and population characteristics of large-bodied fish species such as walleye, lake whitefish, northern pike, and suckers. Systematic monitoring was initiated in 1986, and monitoring results gathered from 1986 to 1997 have been treated as “baseline” data on the premise that it predates “major” oil sands development. However, oil sands development actually began in the 1960’s, which predates systematic monitoring by decades. The lack of an historic ecological baseline poses a major challenge for with assessing oil sand impacts on fish populations.

The RAMP 2010 Scientific Review recommended that fish sampling protocols and statistical analysis needed to improve or change before monitoring is able detect ecological impacts of oil sands development with confidence. RAMP results are described below because the program provides most of the information currently available for fish abundance and health. However, conclusions based on RAMP data should be interpreted with caution

RAMP found that the relative abundance of the different species, the number of different species caught, and the condition (“fatness”) of fish have varied by species seasonally and annually, but have generally been within the range observed between 1986 and 1996. When compared to the 1986-1996 data, no consistent negative or positive changes have been observed in these fish populations since 1997. Annual inventories will continue to provide information about fish populations in the region, but there is limited capacity to determine specific effects of oil sands development because of the lack of reference areas in the region (i.e., areas without oil sands development), and the fish species on which most monitoring occurs are very mobile.

Other studies have assessed whether fish living in habitats exposed to oil sands show differences in growth rates, reproductive ability, or other characteristics compared to fish living in areas outside the oil sands formation. One study compared Steepbank River slimy sculpin and Ells River pearl dace living in areas exposed to natural oil sands to fish from upstream areas, outside the oil sands formation. This study found51:

Higher activity of EROD, a liver enzyme indicator of exposure to PAHs and similar compounds, in fish exposed to natural oil sands. The highest levels were found at a site adjacent to oil sands development;

Lower levels of steroid production in fish from the Steepbank River exposed to oil sands (upstream and downstream of active oil sands

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development in this watershed) as compared to areas outside oil sands development

Decreased sex steroid production by testes and ovaries of slimy sculpin from the Steepbank River in the vicinity of anthropogenic disturbance as compared to sites exposed to naturally occurring oil sands;

Reduced development of reproductive organs in fish from the Ells River exposed to naturally occurring oil sands (studies occurred previous to any development in this watershed);

No differences in fish condition (“fatness”) between fish exposed and unexposed to oil sands; and

Refinery sediments and three natural river bitumens caused mortalities and larval deformities in fathead minnow and Athabasca white sucker larvae exposed as eggs in the lab.

While the loss of small streams may seem insignificant on a project-by-project basis, the long-term cumulative impact of these losses will have important implications for fish in the oil sands region. Many of these small systems support populations of forage fish that are important food sources for larger species, and are important habitat for species such as northern pike and Arctic grayling. This continuing loss reduces the habitat options and spatial diversity of these species. This potentially leads to increased vulnerability to additional habitat impacts and overharvest42. Ongoing monitoring is necessary to determine the cumulative effects of oil sands development on regional fish populations.

3.2.4.3 Waterfowl

Waterfowl use a variety of aquatic habitats in the Athabasca oil sands area. Habitat suitability depends on the needs of different species and different life-stages. Geese and swans are generally migrants in the area, and typically stage on large lakes in the PAD during spring and fall. Ducks migrate through and breed in the Athabasca oil sands region, and use a variety of wetland and upland habitat types in the

Changes in fish populations in the Athabasca oil sands region have been observed by Aboriginal people (interviewed in June 2007), as shown by the following statements (Timoney 2007):

“Right here at Goose Island, one spring, after breakup, there were... maybe 10,000 fish floating on [Goose Island] creek...they went in there and they all died... don’t know what the cause was... they were rotten, must have happened in the winter.” (Ray Ladouceur, Fort Chipewyan)

“Burbot are not like they used to be—they used to be bigger.” (J. Fraser, ACFN).

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delta and lower Athabasca River region52. Because waterfowl spend a large amount of time in the water, and consume aquatic invertebrates, aquatic vegetation, and fish, changes in the environment resulting from oil sands activities could affect the waterfowl community. Waterfowl are also an important traditional food source for Aboriginal people living in the region.

Within the PAD, the total population of ducks crashed in the early 1960’s and has fluctuated at lower population levels ever since (Figure 2.7). In 2009, estimated spring populations of breeding dabblers and divers (two groups of duck species) were above both the long-term (1955 to 2009) and ten-year (1999 to 2009) average population.

Overall, the total population of ducks in northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories Mackenzie District has declined since the mid-1980s, although populations of some individual species (e.g., bufflehead) have increased since that time53. The population of scaup, a diving duck, has declined dramatically since the early 1980s both regionally and in the Peace-Athabasca Delta (Figure2.8).

Fort Chipewyan Elders have indicated that ducks taste differently now than they did previously, and that their skin now tears when they are plucked. “Ducks in the spring taste differently now. They have a watery taste and the meat is tougher after it’s cooked…”, according to John Piche (interviewed 31 May, 2007 at his fish camp in Rochers River).

Waterfowl populations in a given area can be highly variable from year to year because of differences in reproductive success and distribution patterns1. Annual populations are also closely tied to weather conditions, such as the timing of ice break-up in the spring and freeze-up in the fall, as well as water levels and habitat conditions in the region and elsewhere1,52.Waterfowl populations in the Athabasca oil sands region and PAD should be considered within the context of regional populations and factors outside the region that can influence bird numbers. For example, the decline in the number of scaup observed in the PAD is also occurring continent-wide1. Conversely, any local impacts on populations of migratory waterfowl can affect these populations across their range. Oil sands developments can affect local habitat conditions due to direct and indirect loss or alteration of habitat, and may have a cumulative effect on waterfowl populations in the Athabasca oil sands region. Waterfowl populations can also be directly affected when they encounter oil sands waste.

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Figure 2.7 Total population of ducks in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, 1955 to 2009.54

Figure 2.8 Scaup population in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, 1955 to 2009.54

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In April 2008, over 1,600 waterfowl died after landing on Syncrude’s Aurora tailings pond. The ducks became coated in residual bitumen and drowned . In June 2010 Syncrude was found guilty of allowing hazardous substances to contact animals under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act, and of depositing hazardous substances in an area frequented by migratory birds under the federal Migratory Birds Convention Act. Following the death of the ducks on the Syncrude pond, and the discovery of a duck covered in oil near Fort Chipewyan shortly afterward, Chief Allan Adam of the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation was quoted as saying:“Our fears have been confirmed by the recent incident with Syncrude Canada. We have always known that our traditional ways are at risk. Today our fears are reality. As Chief of the ACFN, I expect a clean up that focuses on affected wildlife in the Peace-Athabasca Delta as well as the region including Wood Buffalo National Park, where birds are known to nest each year. We are a downstream community of concerned members and we need peace of mind that our traditional ways can continue. We need answers from Canadian, provincial and industry representatives ”.In October 2010, nearly 400 ducks died or were euthanized after landing in Syncrude, Shell, and Suncor tailings ponds during a freezing rain event.

Species at Risk

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The Athabasca oil sands region provides habitat for a few of Alberta’s Species at Risk, including:

Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus), a sport-fish species found in the Athabasca oil sands region. This species has been designated a Species of Special Concern in Alberta because of increased accessibility to its habitat, and blocked migration routes and altered stream flow, primarily from improperly placed culverts.

Shortjaw cisco (Coregonus zenithicus), a fish species listed as Threatened in Alberta. This species may possibly be found in Lake Athabasca and Gregoire Lake, although further study is needed55.

Whooping cranes (Grus americana) breed in the northernmost portion of Wood Buffalo National Park, downstream of Lake Athabasca, in poorly drained, shallow waters. Whooping cranes may migrate through the oil sands region, where they roost in wetlands. Whooping cranes are an endangered species in Alberta56.

3.2.4.4 Semi-Aquatic Mammals

Semi-aquatic mammals, including beaver, muskrat, mink, and river otter, have played important ecological and socioeconomic roles in the Athabasca oil sands region for centuries57. These species are highly dependent on an adequate supply of water and water depth, particularly in winter, as well as annual variability in water depth to sustain plant food sources and prey species. Riparian zones, perched basins, and neighbouring tributaries and wetlands are key habitat for these species60,52.

Oil sands developments have the potential to affect populations of semi-aquatic mammals through direct changes to rivers, streams, and wetlands. Groundwater withdrawal, changes to the landscape that affect hydrology, and the large-scale withdrawal of water from the Athabasca River may also have effects on the habitat and populations of semi-aquatic mammals. These effects, however, are not well understood, especially at the cumulative or regional level60. Environmental contaminants can also affect mammal populations.

Surveys conducted for individual oil sands projects identified beaver, muskrat, river otter, and mink throughout the Athabasca oil sands region60. However, there have been no regional assessments of semi-aquatic mammal populations in recent years, and the overall population status of these species in the Athabasca oil sands region is unknown60.

There is some information available on contaminant loads in semi-aquatic mammals in the region (see for example Table VI3 in Golder Associates 2003 Trace Metals in Traditional Foods within the Athabasca Oil Sands Area) but sample sizes have generally been small and they have not been recorded over time. While not strictly speaking a semi-aquatic mammal, arsenic levels recorded in 23 moose muscle samples in the Wood Buffalo Municipal Area were comparable to arsenic levels recorded in 22 moose muscle samples from the Yukon.

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Trappers have suggested that changes in water quantity have influenced the productivity or survival of muskrats in the Delta190, with one Fort Chipewyan resident noting that muskrats that live along the rivers are smaller than they used to be, and another noting that muskrats don’t recover from die-offs as they previously did. Elders from Fort Chipewyan have found that muskrats and beaver taste differently than they used to (e.g., more watery), or that muskrats from different areas of the Delta vary in their taste (e.g., oily).

3.2.5 Human Health and Safety

3.2.5.1 Drinking Water

The RAMP 2010 Scientific Review recommended that additional surface water quality monitoring sites are needed, and monitoring needs to consider seasonal patterns before monitoring is able detect ecological impacts of oil sands development with confidence. In addition, a broader suite of contaminants needs to be monitored. RAMP results are described below because the program provides much of the information currently available for water quality. However, conclusions based on RAMP data should be interpreted with caution

The Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment has published Guidelines for Canadian Drinking Water Quality58. Water quality monitoring results obtained from the Athabasca River downstream of oil sands development have generally been below the thresholds prescribed by the Guidelines. Mercury concentrations in the lower Athabasca River were below the Canadian Maximum Acceptable Concentration (MAC) in all samples collected between 1987 and 2008. Arsenic concentrations were below the MAC in all samples collected downstream of oil sands development except one, collected in 1990, and below the guideline in samples obtained from Lake Athabasca and the Delta in 2007. Lead exceeded the health guideline in two samples, while iron and manganese concentrations exceeded aesthetic objectives on numerous occasions.

Benzo(a)pyrene is the only PAH compound with a drinking water guideline. Athabasca River water collected downstream of oil sands development had benzo(a)pyrene concentrations that were below the guideline in all samples collected between 2004 and 200613.

Comparison of various metals and organic compounds with Canadian drinking water guidelines indicates that untreated water from the lower Athabasca River does not exceed drinking water guidelines from a chemical perspective. However, the potential presence of fecal bacteria (which could originate from animals as well as people) could sicken people who consume raw river water.

Aboriginal people no longer drink directly from these waters as they once did, for fear of contaminants. A recent survey of Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation and Mikisew Cree First Nation Elders and

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resource users found that not a single respondent felt comfortable using water from the Lower Athabasca River. As one respondent put it:

“Yeah, you could drink water anywhere them days when I was younger, drinking off the river, and now you can’t do that, you have to carry special water when you go anywhere, any place you go, any place like even … [Wood Buffalo National] Park area like when you go out in the woods you have to carry your own water. You can’t drink water from anywhere”(Mikisew Cree First Nation, 2010).

3.2.5.2 Fish Tissue

Although often an indicator of western science or technical nature, the perception and reaction to contaminant risk is one that is strongly rooted in local and Traditional Knowledge and local experience. Many harvesters and elders who identified contaminants as an issue were quick to say they no longer eat the fish.

Many instances of fish abnormalities, tumours, and changes in fish tissue quality have been reported in recent years. Several Fort Chipewyan Elders have reported deformities and changes in skin and body condition in walleye and other species caught in Lake Athabasca, and these abnormalities have generated a great deal of concern. The frequency of external fish abnormalities (including parasites, growths, lesions, or body deformities) is assessed annually during fish inventories on the Athabasca River. RAMP considers the frequency of abnormalities observed in these studies to have remained consistent (i.e., <5%) since 1997.

Aboriginal fishermen have observed that fishing nets now get discoloured after being set.

“After two nights or so in the river, the net is just brown... it’s a scum or something...dirty... years back... thirty, forty years ago, it wasn’t like that... sticky, slimy thing... brown” (Big Ray Ladouceur, Fort Chipewyan, interviewed in 2007).

Changes in the quality of fish flesh have also been reported by First Nations Elders. Fish flesh has been reported as “soft”, “mushy”, and “tasting mossy” Bitumen contains hydrocarbons known to affect (“taint”) the flavour of fish, including dibenzothiophenes, naphthenic acids, and methylated naphthelenes59. Concentrations of PAHs were found to be as high as 0.682 µg/L in the lower Ells River in a recent study; this concentration is considered toxic to fish embryos.

Two of three historical tainting studies examining differences in flavour between fish exposed to water that contained various concentrations of oil sands tailings water, and those exposed to Athabasca River water or laboratory water, found a difference in taste and preference for those fish not exposed to tailings water. Fish exposed to high concentrations (10%) of tailings water were described by panellists as tasting “oily, fishy, metallic, sweet, bitter, musty and sour”. The third

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study found no consistent difference or preference for fish reared in tailings pond water versus those collected from the river60.

Aboriginal fishers have reported deformities in fish downstream of the oil sands. “There’s deformed pickerel in Lake Athabasca... Pushed in faces, bulging eyes, humped back, crooked tails... never used to see that. Great big lumps on them... you poke that, it sprays water...” (Johnny Courtereille, Fort Chipewyan, interviewed in 2007).

Fish abnormalities and tainting can occur for a variety of reasons, including physical, chemical, or biological changes in the environment61. Aboriginal people have repeatedly expressed concerns regarding the safety and abundance of fish in the Athabasca oil sands region, and the protection of fish habitat in the face of oil sands development. Concerns about fish health have already led to impacts on Aboriginal ways of life. Despite this, there have been no studies of internal fish pathology or histology in this region.

Mercury enters the environment from natural sources (e.g., rocks, soils, water, volcanoes) and human activities (e.g. non-ferrous metal processing, stationary combustion). Mercury can accumulate in some fish as organically-bound methylmercury62, which is a known neurotoxin and is the most toxic form of mercury63. Fish consumption can then expose humans to potentially hazardous methylmercury levels. Fish-tissue mercury concentrations are a concern to fishers and fish consumers because mercury bioaccumulates in species higher on the food chain—species such as walleye and northern pike that are of interest for fishers in the oil sands region. Larger, older fish typically exhibit higher mercury concentrations than smaller and/or younger fish. Mercury is naturally present in uncontaminated freshwater fish, and can be as high as 1 mg/kg (above the Health Canada guideline of 0.5 mg/kg for general consumers) in fish living near natural geological sources of mercury64.

Mercury concentrations in predatory fish are high throughout the Mackenzie River Basin: a 2005 survey of historical data from lakes throughout the basin found that a third of northern pike populations, and half of walleye populations, surveyed had tissue-mercury concentrations that exceeded the Health Canada general-consumer guideline65. In northern Alberta, concentrations in these fish species also exceed Health Canada’s subsistence/recreational fisher and general consumer guidelines in various lakes and waterbodies (e.g., Hay River, Peace River, Lake Claire), including those exposed and unexposed to oil sands development. Added inputs of mercury, such as those identified by Kelly et al (2010) as originating from oil sands development sites, to waterbodies that already exhibit high mercury levels can rapidly increase methylmercury levels in fish to even higherlevels.

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Figure 2.9 Mercury concentrations in walleye muscle from the Athabasca River and Lake Athabasca, 1976 to 2008, relative to other regional waterbodies66.

In 2008, RAMP analysed mercury concentrations in 20 lake whitefish and 26 walleye from the lower Athabasca River. RAMP found that mercury concentrations were below the Health Canada Guideline for Subsistence and Recreational Fishers and General Consumers in each lake whitefish. In walleye, mercury concentrations were higher than the Health Canada Subsistence and Recreational Fishers and General Consumers in sixteen (62%), four (15%), and three (12%) fish, respectively. Subsequently, the Government of Alberta issued a consumption advisory for mercury in walleye from the Athabasca River.

RAMP analysis concluded that mercury concentrations in Lake Athabasca lake whitefish and northern pike measured in the early 1970s were similar to or higher than mercury concentrations in fish sampled in 2008. The average mercury concentration in walleye from the Athabasca River was found to have decreased over time in males and remained consistent for females, while for lake whitefish, the average mercury concentration had decreased over time for both males and females. Figure 2.9 shows mercury concentrations in walleye muscle sampled from Athabasca River (upstream and downstream of oil sands development) and Lake Athabasca, sampled from 1976 to 2008. However, Timoney and Lee (2009) found that mercury concentrations in walleye increased in the same area between 1976 and 2005.

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3.2.5.3 Health Concerns

Oil sands operations can result in deforestation and changing migration patterns of indigenous animals, which can affect traditional lifestyles and thereby indirectly impact human health.

Aboriginal people and communities in the Athabasca region have expressed concerns about the potential health impacts of ongoing oil sands development. These groups are attributing health problems to contaminant levels in the environment, including drinking water and food sources, and to the cumulative effects of development.

Fish consumption advisories are voluntary measures to reduce potential health risk to local fish consumers. The balance between risk and benefits of consumption of mercury-containing fish needs to be understood and considered by consumers. The 2010 Alberta Guide to Sportfishing Regulations67 details the most recent fish consumption advisories for the oil sands region. The Guide recommends limiting the consumption of walleye larger than two pounds from the Athabasca River downstream of Fort McMurray. The recommended servings (1/2 cup, or a palm-sized piece of cooked fish) are two per week for women, half a serving per week for young children and infants, one serving per week for older children, and eight per week for adults70.

In 2009, the Government of Alberta’s Health and Wellness Working Group evaluated the 2008 fish-tissue findings discussed above, and concluded the following with respect to mercury levels in fish66:

Concentrations of total mercury in fish in the waterbodies of the Wood Buffalo area were within the ranges for the same fish species from other water bodies in Alberta and the rivers and lakes elsewhere in Canada and the United States.

The estimated human exposures to mercury were high for the high fish intake group (over 100 g/d) who consume walleye and northern pike and lake whitefish from some rivers and lakes in the Wood Buffalo area.

Restriction of consumption of walleye, northern pike and lake whitefish from some lakes and rivers was indicated by the risk assessment, especially for women of reproductive age, pregnant women and young children.

In 2006, six cases of cholangiocarcinoma, a rare type of bile-duct cancer, were reported by a physician working in Fort Chipewyan, as well as high rates of other cancers68. Concerns about cancer rates were echoed by local residents, who attributed cancers in their community to environmental contamination from the oil sands developments and other industries. Aboriginal people in the Athabasca oil sands region have also observed the following:

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“Oil sands development in the Athabasca region has had devastating effects on our people. We are afraid to drink the water or eat the fish from the river as we have always done. The fish have strange tumours, and cancer rates in our community have increased dramatically in the last 10 years.” (Pat Marcel, Fort Chipewyan Elder, interviewed in 2008.

“Last year [2006] twenty-two people died here, half of cancer. There’s something wrong…There has to be something wrong…” (Johnny Courtereille, Fort Chipewyan, interviewed in 2007)

Observations linking oil sands development to environmental and health issues are not a recent phenomenon, as indicated by the following testimony to the Royal Commission on Aboriginal People in 1996:

“Fort MacKay is [at] the epicentre of the tar sands development….The government tells us that there is no pollution. They have done studies that say there is no pollution. But we say they are wrong, because we have seen the changes that have taken place in the environment. The pollution has not only damaged the environment, it has made the people of Fort MacKay sick. For a small community of 300, we have high rates of cancer and other illnesses.” (Dorothy McDonald, then Chief of Fort MacKay First Nation, testifying in 1996).

And the 1992 Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples:

“The west end of the Lake Athabasca, right here where we are living today, just straight out and you see the edge of the lake, this is the settling pond for all the pollution that is coming down. I strongly believe that our kids or grandchildren in their time if we don’t start doing something with this pollution coming into this lake, they won’t wee anything that we’ve see, to eat the fish and hunt the birds. Our great grandchildren will never see that if there is not something done immediately” (Sonny Flett, Fort Chipewyan Métis, June 18, 1992). Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples (1992) Presentation by Sonny Flett, President, Fort Chipewyan Métis Local Pp 78-101.

The Alberta Cancer Board investigated claims of high incidence rates of cancer – including cholangiocarcinoma, a rare bile-duct cancer – in the community of Fort Chipewyan. In their report, the Alberta Cancer Board found that there were higher rates of certain types of cancer (biliary tract, blood and lymphatic system, soft tissue) than would have been expected in the community, but the following qualification was made:

“These findings were based on a small number of cases and could be due to chance, increased detection or increased risk in the community. […] The study was not designed to determine whether living in Fort Chipewyan elevated cancer risk. The study was not designed to determine the cause of any of the cancers experienced in Fort Chipewyan. […] Further investigation is required to evaluate if there is a risk posed by living in Fort Chipewyan”71.

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These ‘further investigations’ would need to look at many potential risk factors, including lifestyle (diet, smoking, and use of other substances), family history, and occupational and environmental exposures. The province of Alberta is working with Health Canada and First Nations to promote and support a human health study for Fort Chipewyan and other First Nations in the oil sands area.

There is currently insufficient research and data to determine whether existing oil sands activities are adversely affecting human health, either directly or indirectly. Possible environmental impacts that may be introduced by any industrial activity and potentially pose a risk to human health include:

Contamination of raw water sources; Contamination of country foods (e.g. fish, shellfish, edible plants and

wild game); Reduced air quality; Exposure to increased noise levels and potential odours, and other

nuisances; and Changes in physical environments that increase risk of injury

According to the December 2010 Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel Report on the Environmental and Health Impacts of Canada’s Oil Sands Industry, “[t]here is currently no credible evidence of environmental contaminant exposures from oil sands reaching Fort Chipewyan at levels expected to cause elevated human cancer rates. More monitoring focused on human contaminant exposures is needed to address First Nations and community concerns.”

In July 2011, Alberta Environment released a report entitled A World Class Environmental Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting System for Alberta, while Environment Canada released a report called An Integrated Oil Sands Environment Monitoring Plan. Both are focused on the Alberta oil sands, and while the emphasis is on environmental monitoring, implications for human health are acknowledged and considered.

The Government of Alberta is currently working with Health Canada and First Nations to conduct a human health study in communities downstream of the oil sands.

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4.0 HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENTS

4.1 INTRODUCTION

Hydroelectric power is electrical energy derived from falling or running water. The force of the water is used to turn the blades of a turbine, which is connected to a generator that converts the mechanical energy into electricity.

Electricity production generates 17% of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions -mainly from burning coal, as well as oil and natural gas 69. Hydroelectric power is a cleaner alternative, and in northern regions like the Mackenzie River Basin, greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs are typically low.

Canada is one of the world’s top hydroelectric power producers. In BC, NWT, and Yukon, hydroelectric power is the primary source of electricity70,71. Hydroelectric power produces approximately 93% of the electricity in BC72 and Yukon73,74. In the NWT, hydroelectric power produces 77% of the electricity75. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, hydroelectric power accounts for a smaller proportion of electrical generation: approximately 7% and 22%, respectively76,77. Small hydroelectric power facilities can be used to supply electricity in remote locations not connected to the continental electrical grid, such as communities in the NWT73.

4.1.1 Types of Hydroelectric Developments

Two types of hydroelectric projects are generally recognized: “run of river” projects and “storage” projects.

Hydroelectric projects that do not store or alter the shape of downstream flow relative to the upstream inflow are defined loosely as “run of river” projects. Nonetheless, run of river projects may require an upstream reservoir to provide hydraulic head (water elevation) and/or to simply ensure that the intake works remain submerged. The upstream reservoir may be referred to as a reservoir or headpond, respectively, depending on whether they are large or small. In either case, however, it is assumed that there is little or no flexibility to draft the storage significantly for the purpose of power. Hydroelectric generation (up to the capacity of the plant), is solely dependent on the amount of upstream inflow. The Dunvegan project is an example of a “run of river” project that will have no useable storage, even though its headpond will be approximately 26 km in length.

A hydroelectric project whose reservoir is capable of capturing, storing, and re-releasing upstream inflow on a time scale measured in days, months, or even annually, are distinguished as “storage” projects. The primary distinction between “storage” and “run of the river” projects is that storage projects alter the shape, magnitude, and timing of downstream flows relative to the upstream flows. This is done to

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optimize energy production and to meet other objectives such as flood protection.

Run of river projects can guarantee energy (e.g. “firm energy”) equivalent to an assured expected inflow less non power releases of water required for other commitments such as support for instream fish flows. Energy that cannot be guaranteed or called upon as required is considered “non firm”. While non firm energy may be used when available, because it cannot be guaranteed for short term dispatch of energy, it must be coordinated with other firm sources to support both the base load and peaking demands.

Alternatively, projects with flexible reservoir storage may rely on the storage to ensure, regardless of inflow, that firm energy may be generated upon demand. Depending on the amount of storage in question, the firm energy may be dispatched over a day or, as in the case of BC’s Williston Reservoir (Bennett Dam) on the Peace River, over an entire year. In an integrated system, projects with flexible storage and the ability to generate electricity based on fluctuating demand are able to balance the energy produced by non firm projects.

Hydroelectric facilities may share the following physical and operational attributes: A storage reservoir or headpond, retained by the dam; Daily, seasonal, or annual regulation of reservoir storage and levels; Daily, seasonal or annual regulation of reservoir discharge to

manage electricity generation, flood protection, and other objectives; and

Physical barriers to the movement of aquatic organisms (unless designed to allow fish migration).

Some of the environmental issues associated with hydroelectric dam construction and operation include upstream inundation, seasonal changes to the magnitude and timing of natural river flows, changes to water quality, and changes to fish and riparian habitat78. Other biophysical impacts include changes in water temperature, ice formation and break-up patterns, and sediment transport (channel maintenance and structure; sediment accumulation and flushing).

4.1.2 Hydroelectric Developments in the Mackenzie River Basin

Currently, hydroelectric power facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin are located in the NWT, Saskatchewan, and in British Columbia (Table3.1, Figure 3.10).

Three facilities in the NWT (Taltson, Bluefish and Snare Rapids) and one in Saskatchewan (Wellington) store water and regulate river flows, all within the Great Slave Lake watershed. Three downstream power facilities on the Snare River and two on the Charlot River use upstream flow regulation to generate electricity in run-of-river facilities.

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There are two hydroelectric power facilities on the upper Peace River in BC. The G.M. Shrum facility includes the Williston Reservoir and W.A.C. Bennett Dam. Downstream, the Peace Canyon Dam uses the regulated flow from the G.M. Shrum facility to generate electricity, but also impounds the much smaller Dinosaur Reservoir as a headpond. Of all of the existing hydroelectric power facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin, G.M. Shrum Generating Station and Williston Reservoir have the greatest capability to influence seasonal downstream flows, because of the capability to store large volumes of water in Williston Reservoir.

Table 3.1 Existing hydroelectric power facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin.

Waterbody Facility Province/ Territory

Capacity(MW)

FacilityType

Downstream flow

regulation***

Peace River G.M. Shrum* BC 2,730 Annual storage yes

Peace Canyon BC 694 Minimal storage**

no

Charlot River Wellington SK 4.8 Storage yes

Waterloo SK 8.0 Minimal storage no

Charlot River SK 10 Minimal storage no

Taltson River Taltson NWT 18 Storage yes

Yellowknife River

Bluefish NWT 7.2 Storage yes

Snare River Snare Rapids NWT 8.0 Storage yes

Snare Falls NWT 7.5 Minimal storage no

Snare Cascades NWT 4.3 Minimal storage no

Snare Forks NWT 9.0 Minimal storage no

* In this context only, G.M. Shrum Generating Station includes the Williston Reservoir and the W.A.C. Bennett Dam.

** Minimal storage means operation of dam has no significant effect on downstream flow regulation.

*** Operation of reservoir alters to some extent downstream flow of river seasonally or annually.

In Alberta, Dunvegan Dam received approval for construction and operation in 2009 and will be the third dam on the Peace River. Notably, the Dunvegan proposal has undergone two extensive environmental assessment processes in the last 10 years and generated a tremendous amount of information on both anticipated impacts and existing local conditions in the Peace River.

The Site C project, recently approved to proceed to regulatory review and environmental impact assessment phases, would be the fourth facility on the Peace River in BC (Table 3.2). Both the Dunvegan and Site C projects would make use of the regulated flows from G.M. Shrum.

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4.1.3 Approved, Proposed, or Potential Hydroelectric Power Facilities

Newly approved, proposed, or potential hydroelectric power facilities described here are listed in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2 Formally proposed, approved, or identified potential hydroelectric power developments in the Mackenzie River Basin.

Waterbody Project Province/Territory

Capacity(MW)

Peace River Site C* BC 1,100

Peace River Dunvegan** AB 100

Slave River Slave River AB 1,800

Fond De Lac River Elizabeth Falls SK 40-50

Taltson River Twin Gorges II  NWT*** 36

Tsu Lake 9

Low Nende Rapids 30

Three Bears Rapids 20

Natalkai Falls 16

Benna Thy 25

Nonacho 5

Yellowknife River Bluefish (replacement)

NWT 7.5

Snowdrift River Lutselk’e NWT 0.5-1.0

Snare River Site 7 NWT 12

Site 8/9 25

Site 4 12

Slemon Rapids 3

Lac La Martre Lac La Martre  Falls NWT 1.0-20

Camsell River Camsell Site 7 NWT 11

White Eagle Falls 26

Great Bear River St. Charles Rapids NWT 126

Wolverine creek 236

Lower Bracket 240

Kakisa Lake Kakisa NWT 13-18

Lockhart 6 sites NWT 269

Mackenzie River 4 sites NWT 10,450

* Approved by BC government to proceed to the regulatory review phase including an independent environmental assessment in 2010.

** In 2009, Dunvegan was formally approved for construction.

*** Northwest Territories Power Corporation website (http://www.ntpc.com) and Northwest Territories Draft Hydro Strategy: The Foundation of a Sustainable Energy Future (GNWT2007)

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Note: Bolded sites are in feasibility or regulatory assessment phases

Site C

The BC government has scheduled the Site C hydroelectric proposal to proceed to an environmental review process in 2011. The Project is subject to a federal environmental assessment and review process under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA). It is also subject to a provincial environmental assessment and review process under the BC Environmental Assessment Act (BCEAA). The Canada-British Columbia Agreement for Environmental Assessment Cooperation (2004) provides for a harmonized provincial and federal review when a project is subject to review pursuant to both BCEAA and CEAA.

The Site C generating station and dam would be located on the Peace River downstream of the Peace Canyon Dam and upstream of Fort St. John. With a proposed capacity of 1100 megawatts, Site C would produce about one-third of the electricity produced at G.M. Shrum Generating Station. The associated dam would hold a reservoir that would be five percent of the surface area of Williston Reservoir created by W.A.C. Bennett Dam79. Proponents do not expect Site C to materially alter the daily average flow regime controlled by W.A.C. Bennett Dam.

Dunvegan

TransAlta Corporation, through subsidiaries Canadian Hydro Developers Inc. and Glacier Power Ltd., received approval in December 2008 to construct a run-of-the-river hydroelectric facility on the Peace River, two kilometres upstream of the Highway #2 bridge crossing at Dunvegan, Alberta. Dunvegan would make use of the regulated flows from the G.M. Shrum facility, instead of relying on flexible storage. Dunvegan is not expected to alter the daily average flow regime controlled by Bennett Dam80. The headpond created by the new dam will extend 26 kilometres upstream.

Slave River

In October 2010, TransCanada Corp and ATCO Power shelved a proposed feasibility study for a 1,800 MW run-of-the-river hydro facility (which includes a dam) on the Alberta portion of the Slave River (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2010/10/18/slave-river-hydro-dam.html ). The project was placed on hold after the Smith Landing First Nation said that their vision of the Slave River was not compatible with large scale hydro development. The proposed headpond would have flooded Reserve lands.

Taltson (Twin Gorges II)

Dezé Energy Corporation Ltd. is developing the proposed Taltson Hydroelectric Expansion Project, which would add a new power plant and transmission line from the existing Twin Gorges power plant on the

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Taltson River in the NWT. This expansion project would provide renewable electrical power to diamond mines and other industrial customers in the North81.

Bluefish

After a leak that occurred at the base of the rock-fill dam of the Bluefish facility on the Yellowknife River was repaired in August 2008, Northwest Territories Power Corporation (NTPC) proposed the construction of a new dam 427 metres downstream of the existing dam. The new dam will effectively replace the original dam.

Lutsel K’e

This proposed mini-hydro proposal on the Snowdrift River in NWT would produce approximately 1.0 MW of power for the hamlet of Lutsel K’e. Hydroelectric power is expected to eventually be cleaner and less expensive than the diesel oil currently used to supply the community’s power78.

Site 7

Site 7 was proposed by the Dogrib Power Corporation, and would represent the fifth development on the Snare River, with a capacity of 12 MW78.

Lac La Martre

The NTPC and the hamlet of Wha Ti are investigating the construction of a mini-hydro project on the La Martre River. This project would generate 1.2 MW of hydroelectric power to meet community electricity and heating requirements. A recent study commissioned by the Tlicho Investment Corporation identified considerable hydroelectric power potential in the range of 6-15 MW on the same river82.

Bear River

Sahdae Energy Ltd. is proposing a 126 MW facility hydroelectric power development at St. Charles Rapids on the Great Bear River. The project was originally proposed by the communities of Délįne and Tulita, located at either end of the Great Bear River. The original concept, which went to prefeasibility stage, was to provide power for the Mackenzie Gas Pipeline Project.

Elizabeth Falls

SaskPower and the Black Lake First Nation are investigating the feasibility of a small run-of-the-river hydro project at Elizabeth Falls on the Fond du Lac River. Initial work has indicated that a hydroelectric power potential in the range of 40 - 50 MW may be attained (Stewart Bengart, SaskPower, Personal Communication June 28, 2011).

Talston proposal was placed on hold in 2011.

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Mackenzie River and Lockhart River

Four sites on the Mackenzie River and six sites on the Lockhart River were assessed for hydroelectric potential and perceived future power needs. These proposals did not proceed beyond the assessment phase and are no longer being considered78.

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Figure 3.10 Location of major existing and proposed hydroelectric developments in the Mackenzie River Basin.

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4.2 INFLUENCE OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT

Hydroelectric power provides several environmental and human-use benefits that are not necessarily found in other major modes of energy production, such as low greenhouse gas emissions, flood protection, water supply for domestic industrial, irrigation, and recreational use, enhanced river transportation, power for regional economic development, and power for remote areas unable to access electrical grids. Hydro projects with flexible storage can provide peaking energy, and may support the integration of non-firm energy facilities such as wind or run-of-river hydro.

These benefits can be accompanied by environmental challenges73,83 such as effects on upstream and downstream aquatic habitats and resources, river transportation, and potential water quality changes associated with project construction (such as the release of natural contaminants through leaching and vegetation decay as land is flooded) and post-construction operation.

Harvest disruption occurs because access to hunting, fishing, and trapping areas is rendered more difficult, or even impossible, by debris, increased discharge, or unstable ice conditions. (Berkes, F. (1988) The intrinsic difficulty of predicting impacts: lessons from the James Bay hydro project. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 8, pp. 201–220) For example, “(w)hen the hydro project went up and snowmobiles were introduced to us, in a lot of ways life was made easier but easier is not always better… the rivers that we travelled on changed. It became dangerous to travel where we used to, because the currents changed and the water level is always changing” (Marlene Highway, northern Saskatchewan Cree, as related by her father in 2001). (http://www.kayas.ca/trapping.html)

The G.M. Shrum and W.A.C. Bennett Dam facility is by far the largest hydroelectric power development in the Mackenzie River Basin and has influenced downstream flow extending to the Slave River. Peace Canyon and the Taltson hydroelectric facility near Fort Smith, NWT are the next largest developments, although the latter is much smaller. Thus the dominant aquatic influences of existing hydroelectric power facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin are centered in the Peace River Sub-Basin.

The remaining hydroelectric facilities, such as the four on the Snare River and the three on the Charlot River, are smaller than the Taltson facility. The aquatic influences of major hydroelectric facilities such as the G.M. Shrum-Bennett Dam facility are easier to see and thus are much better documented, while the effects of smaller hydroelectric facilities are more difficult to measure and not as well documented. The key effects of hydroelectric development in the Mackenzie River Basin are discussed below.

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4.2.1 Water Quality

There is very little first hand information available on the effects of hydroelectric development on water quality in the Mackenzie River Basin. Typically, reservoir flooding can leach naturally occurring chemicals from newly flooded lands – the type and amount of chemicals released into the water column depends on the ambient geology and geomorphology of the flooded lands. Terrestrial vegetation killed by rising water decays, releasing mercury into the water columnas methylmercury. Mercury levels will typically stabilize and decline as the rate of vegetation decay declines over time. Hydroelectric reservoirs in the Mackenzie River Basin are believed to follow the same pattern.

Since the four power facilities on the Snare River were commissioned, water quality has not changed significantly relative to historical conditions84. Turbidity and chromium concentrations did increase over time: turbidity increased slightly from upstream to downstream of the power facilities, while chromium concentrations were comparable to undeveloped waterbodies in the region.

A 1977 environmental overview of the Charlot River facility85, which was constructed after the Wellington and Waterloo facilities were in operation, indicated that the Charlot River facility would only alter water quality during the construction phase. During construction, elevated turbidity caused by the erosion of earthworks and facility construction sites was anticipated, as were elevated nutrient inputs stemming from the workers’ camp. There were no anticipated operational effects on water quality because the station would be operated as a run-of-river facility below the other two established stations. No documentation is currently available to assess these predictions.

The seasonal pattern of dissolved parameters (such as dissolved oxygen) in the Peace and Slave Rivers has changed have been related to the construction of the W.A.C. Bennett Dam and attendant changes in discharge patterns through flow regulation15.

4.2.2 River Flow

The single, largest documented effect of hydroelectric power development in the Mackenzie River Basin has been the change in the seasonal flow regime shape of the Peace River resulting from operation of G.M. Shrum Generating Station and W.A.C. Bennett Dam26,86,87. Storage and discharge from the Williston Reservoir are managed to optimize electricity generation and to provide flood protection for downstream municipalities, subject to meeting regulatory requirements for aquatic instream flows. The regulated discharge from the Williston Reservoir has changed the annual hydrograph in the Peace River below the W.A.C. Bennett Dam (Figure 3.2a Average monthly flows in thePeace River at Hudson Hope and Taylor, British Columbia, before andafter operation* of the Williston Reservoir (BC Hydro 2009 Peace

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Project Water Use Plan: Industry and Taylor Water Quality AssessmentGMSWorks #10 Year One Report Ref No VA103-14/16-1)a, Figure 3.2b, Figure 3.3).

Figure 3.2a Average monthly flows in the Peace River at Hudson Hopeand Taylor, British Columbia, before and after operation* of theWilliston Reservoir (BC Hydro 2009 Peace Project Water Use Plan:Industry and Taylor Water Quality Assessment GMSWorks #10 Year OneReport Ref No VA103-14/16-1)a shows how the operation of the G.M. Shrum Generating Station, on average, has flattened the natural, seasonal hydrograph of the Peace River at Peace River, Alberta by reducing spring and summer flows and increasing fall and winter flows. Figure 3.2b shows how flow patterns have been slightly inverted at Hudson Hope, BC, a short distance downstream from the G.M. Shrum Generating Station, and flattened at Taylor, BC which is located 100 km downstream. Water is typically stored in the Williston Reservoir in the spring and released in the winter. Immediately downstream of the Williston Reservoir, the hydrograph is slightly inverted such that the average summer flows are slightly less than the average winter flows, which is markedly different than the pre-dam annual flow regime.

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Figure 3.2a Average monthly flows in the Peace River at Hudson Hope and Taylor, British Columbia, before and after operation* of the Williston Reservoir (BC Hydro 2009 Peace Project Water Use Plan: Industry and Taylor Water Quality Assessment GMSWorks #10 Year One Report Ref No VA103-14/16-1)

Figure 3.11b Average monthly flows in the Peace River at Peace River, Alberta, before and after operation** of the Williston Reservoir26.

* Operation of the Williston Reservoir began in 1972. ** Data periods from 1916 to 1930 and from 1958 to 2007.

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During a survey of social and economic barriers to subsistence harvesting, members of the Little Red River Cree Nation in northeastern Alberta told researchers that “(s)ince the W.A.C. Bennett Dam began operating on the Peace River in northern British Columbia, water levels have generally declined and seasonal floods have ceased. This has affected the small creeks and marshes that have previously served as travel routes and good wildlife habitat. Many have dried up while others have become stagnant and contaminated” Nelson, M., Natcher, D.C. and Hickey, C.G. 2005 Social and Economic Barriers to Subsistence Harvesting in a Northern Alberta Aboriginal Community. Anthropologica 47: 289-301.

Tributary water inputs to the Peace River downstream of Bennett Dam dampen the influence of flow regulation from Williston Reservoir to the Mackenzie River, this dampening effect increases with distance (Figure3.3).

4.2.2.1 MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGIC MODEL

The Mackenzie River Basin Board developed a hydrologic model34 that describes how natural flows in the Mackenzie River Basin compare to the flows regulated by hydroelectric development and/or subject to water withdrawals for oil sands and other developments in the Peace, Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie Rivers.

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Mackenzie River Basin Hydrologic ModelThe Mackenzie River Basin Hydrologic Model is based primarily on the River 1D hydraulic model, with storage routing used to simulate Lake Athabasca and Great Slave Lake. The 1D hydraulic model is used to assess how historical observed and/or generated flows from about 340 boundary condition sites and tributaries, were transported down the main-stems of the Peace, Athabasca, Slave, and Mackenzie Rivers. As only 80 to 85 of the tributary inflows used in the running of the hydraulic model are gauged, a precipitation-runoff model, known as WATFLOOD, is used to generate estimates of historical natural flows for the nearly 250 ungauged tributaries.Model development was completed in 2009. The model has been applied to the historical 1961-2005 period to simulate, at key locations, the observed flow, the natural flow, and the flow with the effects of only the existing flow regulation (W.A.C. Bennett Dam) or water abstractions (primarily related to oil sands activities).Model LimitationsThe capability and accuracy of any numerical flow model depends on the specifics of the modeling algorithm and on the availability and accuracy of the input data. The model algorithm within the River 1D can reliably simulate flows transported through the system although there are limitations in simulating water levels or peak flood flows. The River 1D model provides greater accuracy for upstream reaches where most tributaries have been gauged and there are no storage routing effects. However, uncertainties in input data limit the model's ability to replicate historical flows in downstream reaches. This is due to the very limited observed data for major tributaries. For example, historical time series of tributary inflows have to be generated from limited precipitation data, while exchanges with major lakes are computed from approximated stage-discharge relations. Improved data coverage available for model input will improve accuracy in future versions of the model.For complex systems such as the Mackenzie River Basin, a detailed understanding of both the physical system and the model's capabilities and limitations are critical to adequately interpret model results and to obtain useful and reliable information. Careful review and interpretation of model results must be exercised when the model is applied to analyze policy alternatives or management decisions. Model performance at relevant temporal and spatial scales must be reviewed to determine if modelling comparisons of different water management alternatives would be appropriate. This is even more important if the hydrological information is to be applied to ecological or sediment transport studies.

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Figure 3.3 Modeled hydrographs at two stations on the Peace River, and two stations on the Slave and Mackenzie rivers before (model_natural) and after (model_observed) commissioning of the G.M. Shrum station and W.A.C. Bennett Dam (See Sidebar).

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Figure 3.3 (Cont’d.)

Preliminary Results of Hydrologic Modeling Study

Figure 3.3 compares modelled naturalized flow to modelled observed flow at four stations below the W.A.C. Bennett Dam from 1985 to 1991. Computed naturalized flows are modelled with the effects of flow

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regulation or water withdrawals removed. Observed flows are modelled flows based on known and projected inflows.

The modeled hydrographs in Figure 3.3 are consistent with measured flow at Peace River, Alberta, as shown in Figure 3.2a Average monthlyflows in the Peace River at Hudson Hope and Taylor, British Columbia,before and after operation* of the Williston Reservoir (BC Hydro 2009Peace Project Water Use Plan: Industry and Taylor Water QualityAssessment GMSWorks #10 Year One Report Ref No VA103-14/16-1)b, which shows that the operation of the Williston Reservoir has altered the downstream annual hydrograph. Note that the hydrographs in Figure 3.3 also show that the effect of operation of the Williston Reservoir decreases with distance downstream, but still extends to the Mackenzie River at Fort Simpson, below the influence of the Athabasca River, Lake Athabasca, Great Slave Lake and Great Slave drainages, and into the area of greatest model limitation.

Flow regulation stemming from Williston Reservoir may also have influenced seasonal water levels on Great Slave Lake. A separate study, using water level observations and a daily water balance model, suggested that regulation of the Peace River has dampened the annual water level variation by about 20 cm, reduced annual maximum water levels by about 14 cm, and shifted annual peak water levels earlier in the season by about 30 days.

Peace Canyon Dam and Dinosaur Reservoir capture the discharge from two small tributaries that enter the Peace River below W.A.C. Bennett Dam. However, the net effect of that storage on the Peace River hydrograph is negligible relative to the effect of operation of Williston Reservoir. Flow through the Dunvegan and proposed Site C developments will also be dominated by the operation of the upstream Williston Reservoir. Like Peace Canyon Dam, the flow regimes at the run-of-river facilities downstream of the other regulated hydroelectric facilities, such as the three stations (Snare Falls, Snare Cascades and Snare Forks) below Snare Rapids Dam, are dominated by the flow regime created by the upstream regulated facility.

The small hydroelectric power stations which regulate storage (Table3.1) also affect their downstream hydrographs. However, the magnitude of flow alteration caused by these small facilities has not been well documented.

4.2.2.2 Ice Regime and Hydrology of the Peace-Athabasca Delta

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) is an internationally valued inland delta88 and Ramsar Convention “Wetland of International Importance” (since 1982). The PAD contains lakes and wetlands that provide habitat for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. The delta ecosystem is shaped by the dynamic nature of short and long-term fluctuations in water levels: periodic spring floods caused by ice jams89,90 on the Peace River and summer floods, which are interspersed with drying events91.

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The coincident “drying” of the PAD and the construction of Bennett Dam has been a source of much debate. The delta is a dynamic ecosystem; post-dam dry periods have neither been as lengthy or severe as pre-dam events.

It has been hypothesized that the change in the seasonal hydrology of the Peace River, caused by flow regulation at the W.A.C. Bennett Dam, altered the PAD ecosystem. The changes were suspected to have been associated with a reduction in the frequency and magnitude of flooding and ice jam events, causing an overall drying of the delta.

Recent reviews of PAD literature, and in particular the case study of the PAD, prepared for the Canadian Biodiversity: Ecosystem Status and Trends 2010 Report92 indicates that recent ice-jam and flood frequency was within the range of historic variability93,94,95. The case study also shows that, while major ice jamming and open water flooding episodes have occurred since the 1940s96 (with the most recent in 199792,97) a drying trend occurred in the PAD from 1945 to 2001, which predates the commissioning of the W.A.C. Bennett dam. The case study identifies the following natural and man-made influences on the PAD ecosystem over the past 45 years:

A warmer, drier climate;

Flow regulation in the Peace River from W.A.C. Bennett Dam;

Land use changes and developments, including forestry, agriculture, and oil sands extraction;

Growing water uses; and

Natural and manmade changes to the Athabasca River channel.

The PAD is sensitive to flood frequency, because the extensive wetland areas (including the perched lakes) rely on flooding to refresh and maintain the health of these aquatic ecosystems. Periodic natural flooding associated with ice jams may culminate in flow reversals in the PAD area, causing water to back up into PAD channels and lakes and into adjacent wetland areas thereby recharging these ecosystems with nutrients. Changes to the ice jam and seasonal flood regime in the PAD are believed to have altered the unique aquatic habitat provided by the network of small perched lakes located in the PAD area 97, regardless of why these changes are happening.

Aboriginal residents have observed changes in the PAD flow regime first hand. “During the past thirty years, the movements of water in the delta have changed. The Peace River seldom rises so high and doesn’t flood the Delta as often as it once did. And ice jams on the Peace have been less frequent, at least until recently. Ice jams in the spring of 1997 contributed to major flooding for the delta” (Athabasca-Chipewyan First Nation).

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W.A.C. Bennett Dam’s effect on the downstream Peace River annual hydrographs by flow regulation upstream of the Delta is well documented (e.g. Fig 3.2). The comparative influence of flow regulation on downstream ice behaviour, flow regimes, and water levels relative to effects of climate change in the PAD is not as clear.

4.2.3 In-Stream Water Uses

Traditional knowledge (TK) and experience provide valuable information about the long-term effects of hydroelectric development on the use of aquatic resources in the Mackenzie River Basin. The following narratives describe the effects of the Taltson Dam on Nonacho Lake, and the effects of hydroelectric development in general, which in some ways apply to all hydroelectric developments in the basin.

Impacts of Taltson Dam on Nonacho Lake

“I am going to tell you a story of where I live. There are a lot of things that are of concern to us. I would like to tell you about it. This land (Nonacho Lake) I am talking about there is a lot of land that has been spoiled for us. That is what I am talking about now. A long time ago, it used to be good for hunting and trapping. Anywhere you could set nets. People lived where all of the fishing spots were. There is nothing now. Where there were fishing holes, if you are going to put a net in the water, they can’t even set nets because there are a lot of trees that are over flooded. There is a lot of water. How are we going to survive? Where are we going to sleep overnight? You can’t sleep there. It is all flooded. If you go to the land where you want to park your canoe… where all the hills are that’s the only place you can park your boat. Not only that all these little animals, these little birds that we used to hunt, now there is nothing, the geese, the ducks, the muskrats, all that and where they used to be, we knew where to go and get them but now you can’t go and get that. It’s all over flooded. The muskrats are gone.” (Joe Boucher, Lutsel K’e Dene First Nation)(Wesche, S. (2007) Adapting to Change in Canada’s North: Voices from Fort Resolution pp 19-25; in Canadian Polar Institute Meridian Spring/Summer 2007).

“The whole country, the whole land, the whole environment is changing because of low water level. I can see the changes in the trees, in the ways plants are growing. Some of the food is drying out, some traditional pathways are overgrown because of lack of water. Back in the old days, in the winter they had a lot of caribou that was migrating through the area … then it dwindled to the point where there are none today […]. Not only the population is down … the forest fires have depleted all the lichen that the caribou had depended on to winter in this area” (Gabe Yelle, Fort Resolution 2005)(Wesche, S. (2007) Adapting to Change in Canada’s North: Voices from Fort Resolution pp 19-25; in Canadian Polar Institute Meridian Spring/Summer 2007).

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4.2.4 Aquatic Habitat and Biodiversity

4.2.4.1 Aquatic Habitat

Changes in habitat quantity, and movements of fish and other aquatic animals in the Peace River are believed to have been influenced by changes to water levels and temperature resulting from flow regulation at the W.A.C. Bennett Dam98.

The PAD is a dynamic ecosystem with periods of wet and dry conditions over the last century; current conditions are neither as wet nor as dry as those historically observed. However, it should not be inferred that conditions in the PAD under a regulated flow regime are identical to those pre-regulation or that they would not have changed in the absence of regulation. Nonetheless, the combined effect of climate change and the influence by flow regulation in the Peace River may have contributed to a naturally altered wet-dry regimen in the perched lakes of the PAD166. Alternatively, the periodic drying observed in the PAD since W.A.C. Bennett Dam was commissioned may have been part of a trend that started decades before.

The drying periods observed in the PAD ecosystem that were coincident with the commissioning of W.A.C. Bennett Dam has been the subject of great controversy. Consensus has shifted away from regulated Peace River flow as the only cause of drying in the PAD, to an understanding that observed effects are a cumulative result of climate variability, natural, and anthropogenic changes to the channel networks99,100.

There is less available information on the effects of other hydroelectric sites on aquatic habitat in the Mackenzie River Basin. There have been no measureable changes to the flow or physical habitat of the Snare River other than the creation of the small headponds at three of the four stations. Metal concentrations (including mercury) in Snare River sediments were all low, with the exception of chromium and nickel, which exceeded sediment guidelines101. Metal concentrations generally increased from downstream to upstream reaches. Metal concentrations in sediments documented in 2000 were the same as those observed before development.

4.2.4.2 Fish

There is very little first hand information regarding the effects of hydroelectric development on fish in the Mackenzie River Basin, other than changing habitat from riverine to lacustrine. Typically, reservoir flooding causes terrestrial vegetation killed by elevated water levels to decay, releasing methylmercury into the water column, where it enters the food chain. Fish initially display elevated mercury loads, which eventually stabilize and decline as the rate of vegetation decay declines. In similar areas, mercury levels in insect eating fish have been shown to return to normal 10 to 20 years after flooding; mercury levels in predatory fish return to normal after 20 to 30 years.

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The environmental review of the Charlot River hydroelectric facility determined that some Arctic grayling spawning habitat would be destroyed by the construction of the facility102. The net effect of the spawning habitat that was lost on the population was not determined.

Assemblages of fish species and benthic invertebrates sampled from the Snare River have not changed measurably since the four hydroelectric facilities were commissioned. Mercury levels in pike were high relative to Health Canada guidelines, but similar to those found in pike from nearby, unaffected areas103.

The creation of Williston Reservoir and W.A.C. Bennett Dam, along with flow regulation, has changed the composition of fish populations in the reservoir and Peace River mainstem104. For example, Arctic grayling populations in the upper Peace River watershed are now much smaller than historic estimates (from pre-dam construction)105. Mercury advisories have been in effect for bull and lake trout in Williston Reservoir since 1991. Mercury levels exceeding national environmental or consumer guidelines have also been measured in fish captured at undammed lakes and rivers elsewhere in the Mackenzie River Basin106.

The historic fish community of the PAD area was dominated by walleye, goldeye, whitefish, and northern pike. These species supported subsistence, sport and commercial fisheries107. Ecological changes in the PAD that occurred over the last few decades likely have affected critical habitats (e.g., spawning areas) for some of these species.

4.2.4.3 Aquatic Mammals

The filling of Williston Reservoir reduced available flow and affected downstream ecosystems in complex ways. As was observed on the Slave River Delta:

“In 1967 they built the Bennett Dam and held water back for three years to fill the reservoir. In the [Slave] delta, the prairies and sloughs used to be full of [musk] rats, so they kept the willows down. They chewed on the shoots. […] The rat population will go down … and after a flood it will rebound. […] Where they held the water back, the land dried out and willows started to grow. There weren’t enough rats to keep them down, so … the slough will never go back to being good rat habitat”. (Angus Beaulieu, 2005 as quoted in Wesche 2007)

The significant decline in small mammal harvest from the PAD during the last few decades may be the result of a change in the habitat of the perched lakes108. These changes have been observed for many years. “Trapping and hunting has disappeared in our community, the trapping especially. There is nothing really out there to trap on account of the Bennett Dam the water levels are very low. The lakes that we had for all of our trappers before, they are all taken over right now in the Wood Buffalo National Park. We lost about 20% of our lakes on account of the Bennett Dam… there’s willows growing around it…. Since the Bennett Dam went in we had one flood there on an ice jam

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and in 1974 we had a flood but we have never had one since. We need floods every five or six years in this delta to flush out the bad water and put fresh water there. It is a shame for man to dry up this delta” (Sonny Flett, Fort Chipewyan Métis, June 18, 1992). Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples (1992) Presentation by Sonny Flett, President, Fort Chipewyan Métis Local Pp 78-101.

A study of the subsistence lifestyle in Fort Chipewyan in 1998 found that residents observed that “(t)he delta has been drying out… Some species of fish and wildlife have become scarce. The muskrat is one of these species. Its meat is a favourite food of the local people and its fur was once their single greatest source of income. The trappers who know the delta, and the scientists who study it think there are several reasons for the drying. Recent scientific studies show that one reason is changing weather, a warming trend that is affecting all of North America including the entire river system of all Northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, Northwest Territories and Yukon. But the trappers and scientists agree that another reason is the W.A.C. Bennett Dam, almost 1,200 kilometres upstream from the delta”109.

The Bennett Dam turned parts of three rivers—the Finlay, Parsnip, and the Peace—into a huge lake: the Williston Reservoir runs 250 kilometres north-south and another 150 kilometres east-west. Its creation destroyed habitat, changed the immediate climate of the area, and compromised biodiversity. (Loo, T. 2007 Disturbing the Peace: Environmental Change and the Scales of a Northern River. Environmental History 12: 895-919)

The alteration of natural riparian ecosystems upstream of W.A.C. Bennett Dam by the creation of Williston Reservoir and to a lesser extent the headponds of the other hydroelectric facilities has been abrupt and total, changing a riverine system into a lacustrine ecosystem. The resultant reservoir and headpond environments have provided different resource use opportunities, including recreational boating.In northern Saskatchewan, the development of the headpond for the Charlot River hydroelectric facility inundated two large sets of rapids. The environmental review of the project predicted that local mink and otter populations would be negatively affected due to the loss of riverine feeding areas110.The effects of hydroelectric developments in the basin on aquatic biota and resources are difficult to quantify and distinguish from natural variation, climate change, and the effects of other human activities. Thus, traditional knowledge and experience with the affected resources is very important. The different perspectives of the resource users who are most directly affected by these changes provide valuable insight and information for the design and management of future hydroelectric developments in the basin.

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4.2.5 Human Health and Safety

Aside from the benefits of low to no greenhouse gas emission electrical power, flood control and protection of life and property, and irrigation support, hydroelectric dams/reservoirs can, depending on their location, also create opportunities for outdoor summer and winter recreation such as boating and ice fishing111, which can significantly increase the scope of outdoor recreational activities for local communities. The different forms of seasonal recreation stemming from reservoirs also create and support local commercial opportunities including ecotourism.

Water-related activities pose inherent safety hazards. The presence and operation of reservoirs, as well as regulated downstream flow regimes, can pose additional safety hazards to people who use these watercourses for food harvesting, livelihood, or transportation. Rapid changes in water levels, as well as slumping of the reservoir foreshore during flooding or normal operations, can create hazards for shoreline activities. Similarly, rapid changes in flow volume and velocity below a dam can be hazardous. In winter, rapid water level changes, as well as releases of relatively warm water, can destabilize ice cover.

These risks have been observed on hydroelectric reservoirs. “Some of the stories that I have heard or that I have experienced myself, I used to trap in that area when I was quite young and with my dad. It is really a dangerous area to trap [Nanacho Lake] because in some areas it is open, some places where you used to travel, where you have known that it is okay to travel that now is really dangerous to travel because some water levels seem to drop. That makes it very dangerous for trappers…so sometimes they are not aware and that’s what happened to these two elders that drowned in the fall…” (Archie Catholique, Lutsel’ke first Nation at RCAP, 1993)

As described above, naturally occurring mercury can be released from areas newly flooded for reservoirs and enter into aquatic food chains112. Mercury has been shown to biomagnify from smaller organisms to fish

Lutsel K’e Dene First Nations – Concerns about the Expansion of Hydro Electric Development A proposed transmission line from the existing Talston River Hydro-Electric Project to current diamond mines located northeast of the Mackenzie River Basin will negatively affect the cultural and spiritual significance of the Lockhart River including the sacred site - Our Lady of the Falls. The site is the destination of a yearly pilgrimage undertaken by the community of Lutsel K’e and others. In addition, the Old Lady is believed to hold healing properties and many people visit the area to be cured of diseases. The community is opposed to the transmission line crossing the Lockhart River The people believe any disturbance (physical or visual) to the Old Lady will harm the spiritual site and perhaps destroy the healing powers of the site…Lutsel K’e residents often use the Ft. Reliance and Artillery Lake areas for teaching traditional skills to their children. Participants noted that this land use activity could be negatively impacted by the project. (Parlee 2011TK/P Report)

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in the Mackenzie River Basin68. In similar areas, mercury levels in insect eating fish have been shown to return to normal 10 to 20 years after reservoir flooding; mercury levels in predatory fish return to normal after 20 to 30 years. Eating fish with mercury loads in excess of Health Canada recommended guidelines can pose risks to human health.

There are mercury advisories in place for some species in Williston [Reservoir]. The perception of contaminant risk has changed traditional harvesting patterns. For example, there is a perception that flooding has resulted in high levels of mercury in fish, so that the Tse Keh Nay cannot eat fish caught in Williston [Reservoir]. In addition, Williston Reservoir has been noted as a badly polluted water body where the fish have high mercury content … people do not eat fish from that area anymore. Littlefield, L., Dorricott, L, Cullon, D., Place, J. and P. Tobin (2007) Tse Keh Nay Traditional and Contemporary Use and Occupation at Amazay (Duncan Lake): A Draft Report. Draft Submission to the Kemess North Joint Review Panel May, 2007 154 pp

Landscape and resultant land use changes triggered by hydroelectric development can have sociological impacts. The cumulative effects of hydro regulation on Aboriginal communities suggests that the concept of community trauma may provide additional insights. Evidence from a number of hydro developments … concluded that impacted communities appear to exhibit significant and measurable increases in social pathology, consistent with the concept of community trauma Loney, M. (1995). Social Problems, Community Trauma and Hydro Project Impacts. Canadian Journal of Native Studies, 15(2), 231-239.

The ecological changes caused by reservoir flooding can change traditional lifestyles. “For the Sekani of Fort Ware, Ingenika, and McLeod Lake a catastrophe occurred in 1964 when completion of W.A.C. Bennett Dam created Williston Reservoir through the flooding of the Peace, Finlay, and Parsnip Valleys in the Rocky Mountain Trench. In the case of both the Cheslatta and the Sekani at Ingenika, the flooding of their homelands occurred on short notice, without proper consultation, and with no compensation. Homes and personal property; hunting, food gathering and fishing areas, as well as trap lines, were all destroyed. Families were forced to relocate on marginal lands”113.

These ecological changes can also affect people’s ties to the land in other ways. For example,

“Where all the grave sites are, our uncles, our grandfathers, if we go back there now there’s nothing. It’s all overflooded. They are all under water. How are we going to go back to our loved ones? You can’t see it any more. That’s how it’s working against us. It is not good. That big area of land is spoiled. It is not good.” (Joe Boucher, 1993 Lutsel K’e Dene First Nation at RCAP, 1993)

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5.0 CLIMATE CHANGE

5.1 INTRODUCTION

Climate and weather influence the daily lives and livelihoods of people in the Mackenzie River Basin. The short summer growing season, the low mean annual temperatures and short winter days are key aspects of climate in the basin that affect human activities and natural environments. Traditional activities and community development in the basin depend on seasonal ice and snow cover on rivers and lakes and the extensive permafrost.A changing climate has important implications to the human and natural environments in the basin. Understanding the nature and effects of climate change now may help us adapt to future changes.This section describes global climate change and the current understanding of climate change in the Mackenzie River Basin, and links these changes to ongoing changes in the aquatic ecosystems in the Mackenzie River Basin.

5.1.1 Context

Climate and climate change can be described using primary indicators such as air temperature and precipitation, and secondary indicators which are strongly influenced by air temperature and precipitation. Secondary indicators include the freeze/thaw regime, permafrost dynamics, and water quality and quantity. The information presented in this Chapter builds on the climate change discussion presented in the SOAER 2003. The objective is to summarize the current understanding of climate change in the Mackenzie River Basin and the potential implications for aquatic environments and resources.Here, climate change is defined as a change in climate resulting from either natural processes or from human-caused changes to the atmosphere, as per the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change114.

5.2 OVERVIEW OF MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN CLIMATE

The Mackenzie River Basin extends north from the prairies through subarctic and boreal forests underlain by discontinuous permafrost, to the tundra which overlays continuous permafrost115.

The Mackenzie River Basin includes three of seven climatic zones of Canada116:

the Cordilleran region, including the high elevations of NWT, Yukon, and northeastern BC;

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the northern-subarctic region, extending from Cree Lake north to the mouth of the Mackenzie River; and

the Arctic region, which forms the extreme northern boundary of the basin.

The basin climate varies considerably from north to south. Seasonal air temperatures range from approximately -25° to -30°C in the winter to +15°C in summer, with extremes of -50°C to over +30°C having been observed117. The daily average temperature (1971-2000) at Athabasca, Alberta was 2.1°C, while at Inuvik, NWT, it was -8.8°C118. In the mountains, snow melt occurs from April to June and lasts throughout the summer. Mean air temperatures fall below 0°C during September or October. Total annual precipitation in the basin decreases from south to north: the southwestern region receives approximately 1,000 mm of precipitation per year while the Arctic coast receives 200 mm. The mean average precipitation in the basin measured approximately 410 mm119 as of 1978 (the most recent summary of average basin precipitation levels found while researching this report). Snow dominates for five to six months of the year, with the greatest accumulation occurring in the western mountains.

The Mackenzie River Basin experiences four distinct seasons, which are defined by freeze-up, thaw, and convection (heat-transfer) processes:

Spring, when increasing temperatures and longer daylight initiate snowmelt, break-up of river ice, and runoff;

Summer, when convection of ground heat obtained from solar radiation dominates;

Fall, when freeze-up of river ice occurs, along with the return and accumulation of the snowpack as temperatures and daylight decrease; and

Winter, when temperatures are continuously below 0°C, precipitation rates decrease, and ice cover increases.

5.3 ATMOSPHERIC AND REGIONAL DETERMINANTS OF CLIMATE

The Mackenzie River Basin climate and climate change are influenced by large-scale, global climatic processes. These global processes include the atmospheric greenhouse effect and large-scale atmospheric-ocean interactions, such as the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño. The linkages between the ocean-atmosphere climate phenomena and the influence of the greenhouse effect on these linkages are not fully understood.

5.3.1 Greenhouse EffectIncoming shortwave radiation from the sun is either reflected to space or absorbed at the surface of the earth. The absorbed radiation is re-emitted from the earth as long-wave infrared radiation. The

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atmospheric greenhouse effect refers to the process by which certain gases in the atmosphere (“greenhouse gases”) absorb and re-radiate the outgoing long-wave infrared (warm) radiation that is emitted from the surface of the earth, trapping most of the heat inside the atmosphere. The major atmospheric greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrogen oxide.

Figure 4.12 The atmospheric greenhouse effect120.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has steadily increased since the industrial revolution. This increase is probably the result of human activities such as fossil-fuel consumption, agriculture, and land use activities like forestry and wetland drainage. Atmospheric monitoring in Hawaii reveals that CO2 levels fluctuate annually in response to season changes in plant respiration in the northern hemisphere but the average amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases over time (Figure 4.13). Atmospheric scientists have concluded that increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases are causing average global and regional air temperatures to rise.

Figure 4.13 Changes in the concentration of atmospheric CO2121.

Inset shows annual variation in atmospheric CO2 related primarily to CO2 uptake by vegetation during the growing season in the northern hemisphere and the increasing net average CO2.

The fastest rates of warming have been observed at the polar and sub-polar regions, including the Mackenzie River Basin. These areas are thought to warm at faster rates because of changes in cloud cover, increased atmospheric water vapour content, and decreased surface albedo (shorter snow and ice seasons, as well as less snow and ice cover, reduce the amount of incoming solar energy reflected from the surface – this heat is instead absorbed), all of which stem from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas content. Ecochard K (2011) describing research published by NASA scientist P. Taylor http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warmingpoles.html These conditions enhance the capacity for atmospheric weather patterns to transport heat energy poleward, accelerating the rate of warming.

5.3.2 Ocean-Atmospheric Influence on Climate

The radiant solar heat and the long-wave radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface drive the water cycle by controlling evaporation, transpiration, and precipitation rates (Figure 4.14).

The humidity (water vapour content) of the lower atmosphere plays a major secondary role in the climate. Water vapour can store a lot of heat and the amount of water vapour that can be stored in the air increases with temperature. The heat stored in water vapour

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moderates the air temperature range, which is why the daily or seasonal air temperature range in the dry Canadian prairies is greater than that of more humid regions such as Ontario and Quebec. High humidity makes summer days feel hotter and winter days feel colder.

Figure 4.14 The water cycle122.

The world’s oceans store a vast amount of heat and therefore exert a strong influence on regional and global climate. The difference in the stored heat energy between equatorial and the high latitude ocean waters, along with the rotation of the earth, drive major oceanic currents such as the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Alaska and California currents in the Pacific Ocean123. In the atmosphere, the same general processes affect atmospheric barometric pressure, gradients in which drive winds. Oceanic currents and atmospheric winds circulate heat, which in turn influence regional precipitation and air temperature patterns.

The Mackenzie River Basin climate is influenced by large scale atmospheric and ocean-circulation processes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)124. An ENSO event is a periodic shift (approximately every five years) in the southern Pacific Ocean currents that is linked to a change in atmospheric pressure on either side of the ocean. This large-scale, ocean-atmosphere event has been linked to warmer winters in western Canada125. The PDO is a pattern of climate variability on a longer time scale - each phase lasts 20 to 30 years. The PDO includes a warm and cool phase, which influences seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns. The PDO can be in or out of phase with the ENSO126. Positive PDOs, for example, can cause drier summers in the southern part of the basin) GNWT (2009) NWT State of the Environment Report http://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/_live/pages/wpPages/soe_natural_fluctuations.aspx)

The 2002-2003 El Niño year produced near-record warm winter temperatures in the southwestern NWT. Yellowknife experienced temperatures twenty degrees above normal. Daytime temperatures ranged from -1°C at Yellowknife to a balmy 7°C at Fort Smith. The high temperatures and lack of snow severely hampered ice road construction across the NWT. This caused problems for the NWT’s mining and oil-and-gas industries, which rely on these frozen roadways for transportation. ENSO events have been linked to delayed openings of the ice road between Tulita and Norman Wells127.

Other large-scale, ocean-atmosphere phenomena that have been correlated with regional fluctuations in seasonal air temperature and precipitation include the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. These periodic, complex, ocean-atmosphere phenomena have been correlated with fluctuations in river and stream flow, and the timing of the spring freshet in the Mackenzie River Basin128.

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5.4 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN

Mackenzie River Basin residents, and indeed people across the all northern regions, have noticed that the climate is changing. Climate change affects everyone differently and many different perceptions of climate change exist.

“I think it is important to note that at least for now global warming is not all bad. Many northerners who love to boat, actually are enjoying longer boating seasons. Many Inuit who fish with fish nets under ice are happy that the ice is not as thick as it once was. Fish are fat and plentiful at the moment…But life as we knew it is changing fast. Sirmik (permanent ice) in many areas is melting, causing lakes to drain. Aniuvat (permanent snow patches) are disappearing. Aniuvat produces our favourite tea water and caribou frequent aniuvat patches to get away from mosquitoes and flies. What I fear is that our lives will be lost because of the thinning of the ice, and because after lake ice melts and snow on the land is gone in the late spring, people are still travelling on sea ice to the beginning of July. Will the ice still be safe for them?…I believe the Inuit can provide the rest of society with useful and timely information because we are at the forefront where the impacts and effects of climate change are felt first and may be most severe” (Jose Kusugak [describing the Inuit experience in Nunavut] in Krupnik and Jolly 2002). Krupnik, I and Jolly, D (eds) (2002) The Earth is Faster Now: Indigenous Observations of Arctic Environmental Change. Fairbanks, Alaska: Arctic Research Consortium of the United States 384 pp

In the western scientific perspective, climate change is largely a physical phenomenon that is observable and can be documented and presented in highly organized ways, even if its causes and impacts are not clearly understood yet. There can be no doubt that scientific data collection and instrumentation is valuable in charting an understanding of the various phenomena that would induce climate change. The issue for many aboriginal people, it would seem, is that these observable global changes have been singularly isolated and been prematurely labeled by western scientists as the primary dimension of “climate change.” The central issue from this western perspective has been the observation of physical changes in global weather and climate both in temporal and spatial manner with the effect that the human realm has been largely removed. The value of the aboriginal perspective is to reprioritize the human element – both in terms of impacts and responsibility. Source: Ermine, W., Nilson, R., Sauchyn, D., Sauve, E., and R.Y. Smith (2005) Isi Askiwan—The State of the Land: Prince Albert Grand Council Elders’ Forum on Climate Change Final Research Project Report to the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative

5.4.1 Primary Climate Indicators

The SOAER 2003 used air temperature and precipitation as primary climate indicators. Annual and seasonal data presented in this report are intended to build upon the data summarized in SOAER 2003.

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5.4.1.1 Air Temperature

The average air temperatures in the northern portion of the Mackenzie River Basin have increased since 1948. Annual average temperatures over most of the NWT have increased by 2C over this period, while winter temperatures have increased by over 4C 129,130. In comparison, the average temperature in southern Canada increased by 0.5 to 1.5 C between 1900 and 1998. Mean spring air temperatures in the Mackenzie River Basin have also increased1.

Figure 4.15 depicts changes in the average annual air temperature from 1940 to 2009 at four sites representing the northern (Inuvik), eastern (Yellowknife), southern (Peace River), and western (Watson Lake) regions of the Mackenzie River Basin. The increase in average annual air temperature ranged from approximately three degrees in Inuvik to less than one degree at Watson Lake. The greater increase in annual air temperature experienced at high latitudes is consistent with data compiled across the Arctic131. The lower R-squared values in the more southerly locations reflect wide and frequent variations from the general warming trend.

Measured and observed changes in annual and seasonal air temperatures in the basin provide a strong, clear signal that the climate has changed in the basin over the last few decades. These data support predictions that climate change will be greatest in high latitudes.

5.4.1.2 Precipitation

Trends in Precipitation

Several studies have indicated that year-to-year precipitation, and precipitation across different locations in the Mackenzie River Basin is variable, but annual precipitation has generally increased in the Mackenzie River Basin and Canadian Arctic132,134,132. Annual mean precipitation has increased by only 2% between 1948 and 2005 over most of the NWT, while the annual precipitation in the Arctic tundra, Arctic mountain regions, and Yukon/Northern BC mountains has increased by 25%, 16%, and 5% respectively, over the same time period132.

Precipitation patterns are not consistent across the basin and can vary locally, sometimes in contrast to broader regional trends. While precipitation in the NWT increased slightly between 1958 and 2005175, weakly declining precipitation trends were detected locally in Inuvik and Norman Wells, and no trend could be detected at Yellowknife (Figure 4.16).

The variability of regional precipitation is further illustrated by an earlier study133 described in SOAER 2003, which indicated that the annual precipitation increased in the Mackenzie River Basin between 1950 and 1998, but winter precipitation generally increased in northern

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areas and decreased in southern areas. However, in contrast to winter trends, summer precipitation increased in southern areas but decreased in northern areas. Figure 4.16 shows total annual precipitation and so does not depict these patterns.

These general temperature and precipitation patterns have been measured in recent years, but are not always consistent with traditional climatic observations. “People mentioned that it didn’t rain much last year. There were too many hot days and cooler some days as well. In the fall, we had lots of overcast. It was kind of warm then slowly got cooler…. This past year there was lots of snow. Not too many changes were noticed this year. It seems to be the same as previous years” (Community Ecological Monitor Annie Gordon, 2007, describing the freeze-up around Aklavik the previous winter as described by Inuvialuit residents in her community)”. Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-op (2008) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Community Reports 2006-2007

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Figure 4.15 Average annual air temperature to 2009 at Inuvik, Yellowknife, Watson Lake, and Peace River. 133,134

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Figure 4.16 Average annual precipitation to 2005 at Inuvik, Norman Wells, and Yellowknife, NWT.137

Snow

Winter snow cover is important because it provides the spring meltwater that is crucial for healthy functioning of freshwater ecosystems and landscapes in high-latitude boreal regions. In the high latitudes of Canada, snow can occur as over 75% of annual

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precipitation. This proportion generally decreases from north to south. Snow cover trends in the basin indicate that the greatest increases in precipitation have occurred in the cold months. However, the average snow cover in Canada’s north decreased between 1972 and 2003, with the greatest decreases observed in the Mackenzie River Basin135. The largest reduction in snow cover has occurred during the spring and summer, which correlates with the measured warming of northern areas in the spring. Data gathered from the broader Arctic region support the regional trends observed in the Mackenzie River Basin136.

Unsuitable snow and ground conditions hamper travel to trap lines, hunting grounds and fishing areas. (SaskAdapt (Undated) Communities: Building Capacity and Resilience http://www.parc.ca/saskadapt/adaptation-options/theme-assessments/communities ) In some areas, increased snowfall and deeper, softer snow make it more difficult to travel, relative to hard-packed snow Berkes, F. and D. Jolly. 2001. Adapting to climate change: social-ecological resilience in a Canadian western Arctic community. Conservation Ecology 5(2): 18. [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol5/iss2/art18/.

The observed and measured variability in annual and seasonal precipitation patterns in the basin makes long-term trends across the basin difficult to generalize. A change in precipitation may be apparent at a local level, while across a drainage basin, no net change in total precipitation may have occurred, or vice versa. These mixed signals are further complicated by annual fluctuations in the severity and length of the snow season.

5.4.1.3 Extreme Events

When it comes to climate, people generally notice extreme temperature or precipitation conditions. The frequency of extreme temperature events in northwestern Canada changed between 1950 and 1998. Extreme warm days occurred more often in recent years, while the frequency of extreme cold days has decreased137. Similarly, the frequency of heavy precipitation events in northern Canada has increased over time138.

5.4.1.4 Climate Change Projections

Empirical (measured) and anecdotal climate information tell us how conditions have changed over time. Global Circulation Models (GCM) can provide insight into future climatic conditions, based on our current understanding of the influence of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations on regional and global climate systems.

Table 4.3 summarizes climate change projections to 2050 for five locations in the Mackenzie River Basin. These projections represent ensemble scenarios for Canada which combine output from 24 international modeling centres139. The projections represent the difference between the baseline period (1961–1990) and 2050, in Celsius degrees for temperature, and percent change for precipitation for “medium” increased levels of greenhouse gases.

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Modeled future climate scenarios should be evaluated with caution, due to the limited ability of current GCMs to describe local climate. The scenarios described in Table 4.3 are meant to show the general magnitude of model-projected changes of air temperature and precipitation in the basin.

The projected changes in air temperature to 2050 are consistent with the seasonal trends in regional air temperature observed in the basin during the past few decades. Modeled and observed temperatures show that the largest increases in air temperature have and are expected to occur during the winter months.

The projected changes in precipitation to 2050 are consistent with observed regional trends but contrast the observed decreasing trends at Inuvik and Norman Wells. This inconsistency highlights the uncertainty of precipitation projections, in light of observed inconsistencies between regional trends and local observations.

5.4.2 Secondary Climate Indicators

The secondary climate indicators that are strongly influenced by air temperature and precipitation include the freeze-thaw regime and permafrost dynamics. Two additional important secondary climate indicators are water quality and quantity, which are discussed below.

5.4.2.1 Freeze-up/Thaw Timing

Spring Thaw

Spring melt in the basin is occurring earlier, in response to increasing spring air temperatures.Warmer springs have caused earlier, fastersnow melt and break-up of river ice, making access to camps difficultand shortening the length of time people are able to spend out on theland Berkes, F. and D. Jolly. 2001. Adapting to climate change: social-ecological resilience in a Canadian western Arctic community.Conservation Ecology 5(2): 18. [online] URL:http://www.consecol.org/vol5/iss2/art18/. shows changes in melt dates for the Mackenzie River at Fort Simpson, in Yellowknife’s Back Bay on Great Slave Lake (from SOAER 2003), and for the Yukon River at Dawson, YK140 (used as a proxy location because of the availability of long term monitoring data). shows mean April air temperatures at Fort Simpson and Yellowknife. The trend of earlier melt date in the NWT locations is consistent with the increasing average April air temperatures.

Table 4.3 Climate change projections for 2050 for air temperature and precipitation at five locations in the Mackenzie River Basin.

General Location in Basin

Inuvik Norman Wells Hay River Peace River Watson Lake

Change in air temperature (C) versus baseline case

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Annual +3.1 +2.8 +2.7 +2.4 +2.3

Winter +4.6 +4.0 +3.9 +3.4 +3.1

Summer +1.7 +1.8 +1.9 +1.9 +1.9

Change in precipitation (%) versus baseline case

Annual +12.7 +10.8 +11.6 +9.5 +10.4

Winter +17.2 +15.4 +12.9 +11.3 +14.5

Summer +11.6 +8.7 +10.2 +6.7 +8.9

Warmer springs have caused earlier, faster snow melt and break-up of river ice, making access to camps difficult and shortening the length of time people are able to spend out on the land Berkes, F. and D. Jolly. 2001. Adapting to climate change: social-ecological resilience in a Canadian western Arctic community. Conservation Ecology 5(2): 18. [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol5/iss2/art18/.

These trends of earlier spring melt are consistent with trends of earlier spring thaw recorded from 1970 to 2002 at locations on the Athabasca River, Liard River, Francis River141, and on the Mackenzie River at Arctic Red River142,143.

Fall Freeze-up

Figure 4.19 shows the trends of later freeze-up on the Mackenzie River at Fort Good Hope and on the Yukon River at Whitehorse YK (used as a proxy location because of the availability of long term monitoring data). The trends are consistent with other reports of later lake freeze-up for many Canadian lakes, including Lake Athabasca144 and the Mackenzie River145. While the sampling stations for fall freeze-up and spring melt in the Yukon River are from slightly west of the Mackenzie River Basin, the data are an appropriate proxy for conditions in the Mackenzie River Basin.

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Figure 4.17 Estimated melt date at Fort Simpson, Yellowknife, and Dawson, Yukon Territory. 1,143

Dawson is used here as a proxy northern location.

Fort Simpson, NWTR2 = 0.5902

30-Mar

9-Apr

19-Apr

29-Apr

9-May

19-May

29-May

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Yellowknife, NWTR2 = 0.342

15-Apr

25-Apr

05-May

15-May

25-May

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Dawson, YukonR2 = 0.139

19-Apr

29-Apr

9-May

19-May

29-May

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

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Figure 4.18 Five-year running average April air temperatures at Fort Simpson and Yellowknife.

The timing of freeze-up and spring melt is a strong indicator of climate change because of its strong link to air temperature. The indicator is also very relevant at the local level because of the dependence and sensitivity of the traditional and cash economies to the annual open water and ice-in periods.

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Figure 4.19 Freeze-up dates at Fort Good Hope, NWT and Whitehorse, Yukon

The pattern of freeze-up can vary from place to place in the basin, as well as from year to year, depending on local climatic conditions.

“Freeze-up in the lakes seemed early, but the rivers took a while. People spent freeze-up in town. There was lots of overflow in the rivers, which made it hard to trust when trying to travel. There was lots of overflow until the end of January (Community Ecological Monitor Annie Gordon, 2007, describing the freeze-up around Aklavik the previous winter as described by Inuvialuit residents in her community)”. Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-op (2008) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Community Reports 2006-2007

“The freeze-up of our lakes went well and was at the normal time. The lack of snow meant there was very little overflow. The absence of wind also made the freeze-up very smooth, that is, not much in the way of rough ice. Somebody noted that some of the bigger lakes had air holes present. People have to be very cautious and aware of these air holes.

Whitehorse is used here as a proxy location.

Fort Good Hope, NWTR2 = 0.0445

30-Sep

30-Oct

29-Nov

29-Dec

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Whitehorse, YukonR2 = 0.1775

26-Oct

25-Nov

25-Dec

24-Jan

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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Some speculated they could be caused by lower water levels preventing the ice from freezing properly and maybe gas released from under the trees. The river took a few nights of cooler weather to freeze after the lakes froze. Some thought the river freeze-up was a bit later than normal. They all said the river froze well and quick as the water cooled. The river froze flat with no jagged ice due to the lack of high winds and no snow” (Community Ecological Monitor Robert Buckle, Aklavik, 2007 describing freeze-up around Aklavik the previous winter, as described by Gwich’in residents in his community) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-op (2008) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Community Reports 2006-2007.

5.4.2.2 Permafrost

The physiography of the Mackenzie River Basin is dominated by extensive permafrost. The permafrost is discontinuous and relatively shallow in the south, but is deep and continuous in the north (Figure 4.20). The discontinuous permafrost zones are generally the most sensitive to climate change because the temperature of permafrost in these areas is closest to 0ºC. The southern boundaries of the discontinuous zone are expected to shift north with climate change146.

Changes in Active Zone

The areal extent and seasonal dynamics of permafrost are strongly dependent on air temperature, and are influenced by complex physiographic and hydrologic factors such as slope, soil cover and organic content, forest cover, and water table depth147. Key physical indicators of permafrost sensitivity to changes in annual and seasonal air temperatures are ground settlement, thaw-penetration depth, and permafrost temperature. Changes in these physical properties of permafrost directly and indirectly influence human activity in the basin.

Figure 4.21 shows the changes in permafrost temperature at 10 m and 12 m depth at four sites in the central and southern areas of the Mackenzie River Basin. The data indicate that the permafrost temperature in different areas of the basin has increased over time.

The greater increase in permafrost temperature at Norman Wells and Wrigley, NWT compared to Fort Simpson, NWT and Petitot River, northern Alberta is due to the permafrost temperature differences and the greater increase in mean annual air temperature at the northern locations. The northern permafrost is colder, and can absorb less latent heat energy, meaning it is more sensitive to warming atmospheric conditions. The southern permafrost is warmer and contains more liquid water, which absorbs more latent heat energy and moderates measured temperature changes148.

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Figure 4.20 The permafrost zones of the Mackenzie River Basin.

Source: Geological Survey of Canada149

Figure 4.21 Changes in permafrost temperature at four sites in the Mackenzie River Basin150.

Figure 4.22 Ground settlement and permafrost thaw depth monitoring at the North Point summit site.

A thaw depth measuring tube shown in the foreground.

Ground settlement (subsidence) occurs when water freed during permafrost melt leaves the upper layer and the ground surface elevation decreases or slumps. The potential for ground settlement increases with soil ice content. The thaw depth is the maximum depth at which permafrost thaws during the summer period and defines the active layer. The active layer changes with ground settlement and thaw depth.

Figure 4.23 shows the change in ground settlement and thaw depth of permafrost at six sites (see Figure 4.24) in the Mackenzie River Basin from 1991 to 2008151. These sites are part of the Geological Survey of Canada’s network of 55 permafrost monitoring sites in the Mackenzie Valley. The changes in settlement depth, thaw depth, and the permafrost active layer at these sites show the variability of permafrost change that has occurred across the Mackenzie River Basin. This variability is driven by the complex interactions between changes in climate, local topography, soil type, snow cover, and the permafrost temperature and moisture content. The organic content of the

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overlying soil also has a major influence on the effect of climate change on the active layer152.

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Figure 4.23 Ground settlement and permafrost thaw depth in the Mackenzie River Basin, 1991 to 2008.

These data show how the active layer (thaw depth and ground settlement) has reacted to climate warming across the Mackenzie River Basin. Changes to the active layer modify the subsurface hydrology, which in turn affects aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Changes in the active layer also directly affect existing and future infrastructure. Specifically, infrastructure and local hydrology have not likely been affected by changes to permafrost near Williams Island or Rengleng River, whereas changes to permafrost at Sans Saults, Ochre River, and North Point Summit have the potential to affect infrastructure and local hydrology.

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Figure 4.24 Location of permafrost sampling sites.

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Thaw-Slumping

A visible indicator of permafrost thawing in the Mackenzie River Basin is the increasing incidence of retrogressive thaw slump activity. A retrogressive thaw-slump is a large volume of thawed soil that has become unstable with the loss of ice that has slid or otherwise collapsed to a lower gradient. Often the entire active layer will separate from the underlying frozen strata. Slumps often occur adjacent to lakes or rivers153,154 (Figure 4.25).

Figure 4.25 Example retrogressive thaw slumping of permafrost in northern Mackenzie River Basin.

Source: S. Wolfe, NRCan

An analysis of historical temperature records and aerial photographs of the Mackenzie Delta showed that thaw-slump activity increased in the region from 1950 through to 2004. Thaw-slump activity was correlated with increases in air temperature during the same period155. The melting, slumping, and erosion of thawed permafrost can affect local hydrology and surface water quality.

5.5 INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT

Changes in climate can change the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of aquatic ecosystems. However, the interactions between climate and the aquatic environment are complex, and our understanding of these interactions is limited. Therefore, it is difficult to conclusively relate actual climate changes in the Mackenzie River Basin to observed changes in aquatic ecosystems, and much of what has

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been reported regarding effects of climate change on aquatic environments of the Mackenzie River Basin has been speculative.

Climate change also works cumulatively with other environmental stressors. The Northern River Basins Study Final Report noted that wildlife distribution patterns have changed throughout the basin. Cycles of rabbit, lynx and muskrat abundance were longer compared to earlier years. Much of the change was attributed to changes in river flow, lower water levels, wetland drying, intensive fires, mining, logging, agriculture, and road development. Muskrat, buffalo and caribou habitats were observed to have been affected by low water levels and fires. Moose populations on the other hand had increased. Migratory bird populations had decreased and flyways had changed significantly. Nesting habits had changed for waterfowl, with fewer eggs and fewer nesting sites. Flett, L., Bill, L., Crozier, J. and D. Surrendi. 1996. A Report of Wisdom Synthesized from the Traditional Knowledge Component Studies. Northern River Basins Study Synthesis Report No. 12.

5.5.1 Water Quantity

5.5.1.1 River Flows

Some climate models predict increased precipitation throughout the Mackenzie River Basin, which would lead to increased annual river flows. However, consistent, basin-wide changes in annual stream flow have not been observed. An analysis of flow data collected from 1968 to 1999 indicated that the annual flow of the Mackenzie River has not changed, despite the climate warming over those decades156. While a net effect on annual flow in the Mackenzie River has not been observed, climate change may affect river flow in different parts of the basin at different times of year.

Different natural flow regimes in the basin influence the hydrograph in different ways at different times of the year. Depending on location and time of year, stream and river flow can be dominated by snow and glacial melt, rainfall, or lake and wetland storage157. The response of these different flow regimes to climate change are likely not uniform. Flow regulation and water withdrawals add to the complexity of understanding the response of natural flow regimes to climate change. Some major tributaries in the basin cross strong climate gradients158, which also add to the complexity of determining trends.

The clearest effect of climate change in the Mackenzie River Basin is earlier runoff and peak flows across the basin, which has been correlated with increasing spring air temperatures in the basin25,131. Other studies have linked between-year and seasonal flow in the basin to other water and climate influences at different spatial scales29,159. Hydrometeorological relationships related to air temperature, precipitation and topography in the Liard River Basin from 1961 to 1990 were used to simulate streamflow in a future warmer climate160. The study found that in a warmer climate, the annual Liard River flow would not be altered, but winter low flows would increase ahead of an

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earlier spring melt, leading to decreased summer flows. An analysis of precipitation and air temperature from 1936 to 1996 indicated that decreased runoff in the Mackenzie River was correlated with a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature160.As described in SOAER 2003, only the Liard and Peel Rivers exhibited long-term flow trends, including decreased average annual and maximum flows between 1960 and 1998. The survey data also showed a weak trend of decreasing flow in the Smoky River, a tributary of the Peace River during the same period. Decreased flow in the Liard, Peel, and Smoky rivers was attributed to decreased precipitation, runoff, and snow pack, respectively. While flow regulation at the W.A.C. Bennett Dam has redistributed seasonal flow in the Peace River, a long-term change in total annual flow has not been recorded26. Similarly, no long-term trends in the total amount of water flowing in the Athabasca River each year were apparent from 1913 to 2001, based on river flow data collected at the town of Athabasca26. However, even if total annual flow does not change, changes in seasonal flows can affect aquatic ecology. Some investigators have reported higher flows in the Athabasca River Basin in winter29, or long-term downward trends in lowest winter flows28.The relationship between stream flow and the large-scale atmospheric-ocean phenomena, such as the ENSO, the PDO, the Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation may potentially exert a strong influence on stream flow because of their effect on local precipitation and/or air temperature patterns. The timing of spring runoff in northern British Columbia, Yukon, and on the Liard and Athabasca rivers has been related to these atmospheric-ocean processes131,161,162,135,127. However, the linkages between large atmospheric-ocean phenomena and greenhouse effect-induced climate change are not well understood.

5.5.1.2 Water Levels and Flooding

Climate change appears to have affected the incidence of flooding in the Mackenzie River Basin. The reduced frequency of flooding in the Peace-Athabasca Delta over the last 35 years, for example, is believed to be influenced by recent climate warming92,163. However, it is difficult to measure the effect of climate change on flooding and water levels in the PAD because there are other environmental factors, such as seasonal flow regulation from the W.A.C. Bennett Dam and water abstractions, which influence the flood regime.

Changes in water quantity and quality have been observed in some areas of the Basin.

“We have been losing water but I don’t know why. All the small lakes [ponds] on the barren lands are disappearing as well as the small streams and creeks that flow between them. That is why the water is unhealthy to drink” (Maurice Lockhart, Lutsel K’e Dene First Nation, August 12, 2000164).

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“The climate is changing. The wind blows harder than it did in the past. Its different – the wind picks up quickly and changes quickly. Now I don’t know what has happened. A long time ago my sister and I traveled on the Snowdrift River to Siltaza Lake. We never saw any rocks along that river but today you can see lots of rocks [the river is shallow]” (Noel Drybones, Lutsel K’e Dene First Nation, 2000167).

However, these types of changes have not been observed across the entire Basin.

“The [Great Bear] lake goes up and down every year. We do not notice much change in its level over the years” (Deline Elder165.)

The results of modeling studies conducted under the Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative166 indicated that increased evaporation from future climate change will increase drying of the important perched basins of the PAD, increasing the reliance on more frequent flooding from ice jam events in the Peace River, and from flooding of the large delta lakes. However, the frequency of ice jams may decrease with climate change, leading to further decreases in flooding events in the PAD167.

5.5.1.3 Effects of Permafrost Degradation

Permafrost melting is believed to influence streamflow in the basin. One of the major anticipated effects of permafrost melting on basin hydrology is the transition from a surface-water-dominated system to a groundwater-dominated system168. Streams and rivers underlain by permafrost normally show a flashy hydrograph, responding quickly to snow melt and precipitation events because precipitation and runoff stay above the relatively impermeable substrate, which has little capacity to absorb water169. After the runoff event, flow normally decreases quickly because groundwater flow is restricted to the active layer150. The expansion of the active layer of degrading permafrost, along with increased movement of groundwater, will shift hydrographs to become more uniform, with extended lower peak flow periods and elevated low flows. For example, the observed increase in winter baseflow at 23 gauge stations in the NWT is believed to be due to the thawing of permafrost from climate change170.

5.5.2 Water Quality

The potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality in a large basin may be diverse and complex, and can be summarized as follows171: Warmer water temperatures will affect physical, chemical, and

biological processes;

Thermal stratification of lakes, and thermal regimes in rivers will change, potentially causing local declines in dissolved oxygen;

Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations will increase, which will affect primary production (algae and plants);

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Availability and toxicity of point and non-point source pollution will increase from changes in overland runoff, and the thermal effects on chemical activity;

The taste and smell of drinking water will change.

And specific to northern basins,

Degradation of permafrost will cause basin-wide changes in surface water chemistry, as well as increases in suspended sediment loads.

5.5.2.1 Oxygen and Contaminants

Climate change is expected to increase the average river and lake temperatures during open-water periods, given that stream and river temperatures tend to equilibrate with ambient air temperature as they move away from the moderating effects of groundwater seeps and glacial melt. Higher summer air temperatures will deepen the warmer, upper layer of lakes (the epilimnion) that already stratify in summer, and will generate longer ice-free periods and induce thermal stratification in other lakes.Elevated water temperatures may reduce dissolved oxygen levels in rivers, streams, and lakes because of increased biochemical oxygen demand and decreased capacity to carry oxygen in solution. Changes in oxygen levels alter natural oxygen-based chemical reactions, and the state of different natural and man-made chemical substances.Elevated water temperatures are also expected to alter the water chemistry. Increases in the availability of natural and man-made toxicants, including mercury68 and persistent organic pollutants, are occurring172 due to increased release of these substances which had been stored in soil and permafrost to local runoff173 as well as from increased long-range air transport from southern areas. Increased long-range transport of PCBs, heavy metals, and PAHs is expected. Moreover, increased ambient temperatures will alter the behaviour and toxicity of these chemicals in the basin due to thermal effects on chemical activity and existing natural processes161,174.These changes have generated uncertainty about the quality of water and aquatic resources. “People don’t trust the fish anymore… People don't like to buy processed food from the stores and fish is kind of like a staple for us so now, as an alternative, we have to go further inland to freshwater lakes. It affects elders because they can't go as far out and get the fish themselves so they have to rely on younger people to get the fish for them… Contaminants are showing up in the fish and we're sharing the same water source as the fish. A lot of people are concerned about the health of our members in the community. Water from the Mackenzie River sits in a reservoir and is treated with chlorine in water trucks before it's delivered to the homes of Fort Good Hope residents. Regular tests of the water have all shown that it is safe to drink. Prior to people taking their water from the river, there was hardly any sickness. But since then, we've seen a lot of cases of cancer,

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different diseases" (James Caesar, Fort Good Hope). Northern News Service (2010) Residents Stop Fishing After Increase in Contaminants Published March 15, 2010.

5.5.2.2 Effects of Permafrost Melting

The ongoing melting of permafrost will have a major - if not the largest - influence on surface water quality in the basin because it covers so much of the basin. Permafrost areas are rich in organic matter, inorganic matter, nutrients, and ions. The response of surface water chemistry in the basin to thawing permafrost is complex and difficult to predict. However, current observations indicate that there will be important shifts in the availability and transport of these chemicals in the basin as permafrost melts, altering the chemistry of lakes, rivers and receiving environments including the Mackenzie Delta and nearshore Arctic Ocean171. The mobilization of peat-based nutrients and carbon may alter the pH of surface waters, thereby influencing the mobilization and concentrations of other chemicals, such as heavy metals, in rivers and lakes. Recent studies of northern tundra lakes in the Mackenzie River Basin have shown that thawing or thaw-slumping of permafrost adjacent to lakes releases various stored substances and alters lake chemistry. Lakes in the Mackenzie Delta affected by permafrost thaw-slumping showed increased electrical conductivity, (a measure of ionic concentration) and increased water clarity156,175. A recent examination of 22 upland lakes between Inuvik and Richards Island showed that lakes affected by thermokarst slumping (thawing of ice-rich permafrost) have lower dissolved organic content176. Thawing permafrost can also increase suspended sediment concentrations in lakes and rivers due to the erosion of thawed soils177. However, a closer examination of this process suggests that the sediment transported from thawed permafrost can remove dissolved organic matter from the water column of affected lakes, thereby increasing water clarity178.

5.5.2.3 Uncertainty

Water quality is an integrative indicator of the effects of human activities and natural change in drainage basins. The difficulty is separating the two influences. Climate-induced changes in surface waters temperature and volume will influence water quality in the basin through the natural physical and chemical properties of the drainage basins. Climate change will also influence the effect and behaviour of man-made chemicals present in or discharged into drainage basins.

5.5.3 Aquatic Habitat and Biodiversity

Although the effects of climate change on aquatic biota are complex and difficult to accurately predict, the effects of altered temperature, flow, and chemistry of surface waters are expected to change the structure and function of lake and river ecosystems within the Mackenzie River Basin. Important physical and chemical changes to the aquatic habitat expected to result from climate change that will affect aquatic communities and biodiversity include179:

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Increased temperatures in open lakes and rivers; Changes in runoff, water levels, and river ice regimes; Changes in biochemical inputs from altered landscapes, including

permafrost; Alteration of ponds and wetlands; and Altered lake ice cover.

Aquatic species richness, biodiversity, and species range and distribution will change in response to these climate change effects180. The structure and productivity of food webs and supporting aquatic habitats will also change. The impact of climate change on biodiversity and the function of ecosystems will likely be determined in large part by the rates of change of water temperature, water chemistry, and runoff181.Communities of aquatic organisms are expected to change as individual species respond differently to climate change. These changes will directly affect the distribution, production, and abundance of valued aquatic animals, such as fish and waterfowl, on which basin residents depend180.

5.5.3.1 Thermal Effects on Fish

The ability of fish to adapt to changing environments depends on the species. There are three possible outcomes for any species when temperatures increase rapidly: local extinction due to thermal stress, a northward shift in geographic range where migratory pathways and other conditions allow, and genetic change through rapid natural selection. (Source: (Lehtonen, H., 1996. Potential effects of global warming on northern European freshwater fish and fisheries. Fisheries Management and Ecology, 3:59–71.) Species with a wide thermal tolerance likely to be less affected by climate change than those with smaller thermal tolerance. (International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Information required to project responses of arctic fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Information_required_to_project_responses_of_arctic_fish) Similarly, species or populations occupying wide geographic ranges are less likely to be affected than species or populations occupying a more limited range. Fish populations in streams and rivers on the margins of their geographic distributions (e.g., arctic and subarctic species) will be the first to respond to the effects of climate change because these systems have a high rate of heat transfer from the air.

Northern freshwater and anadromous fishes can be classified into three groups, distinguished by their preferred water temperature conditions: (1) Arctic (less than 10ºC), including broad whitefish and Arctic char,

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which are wholly Arctic or subarctic; (2) Northern Cold Adapted (11-15ºC), including lake trout, whose northern range boundary is at least partially in the northern basin; and (3) Southern Cool Water Adapted (21-25ºC), have a northern distribution boundary located very low in the subarctic zone182.

Fish species in these thermal groups will respond differently to climate warming. The impacts of climate change upon Arctic species are likely to be negative. These impacts generally will appear as warming at the limit of these species range exceeds preferences or tolerances; they may also be affected by habitat changes; and/or increased competition, predation, or disease resulting as southern species shift northward. (Source: International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Information required to project responses of arctic fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Information_required_to_project_responses_of_arctic_fish) Species at or near the southern limit of their range will suffer from reduced growth and productivity due to reduced optimal thermal habitat183,184. Many of these effects will possibly be driven or exacerbated by shifts in the life history of some species (e.g., from anadromy to freshwater only). (Source: International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Information required to project responses of arctic fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Information_required_to_project_responses_of_arctic_fish )

However, a critical factor is how the other components of the food web - starting with primary production - will respond to elevated water temperatures. The response of different levels of the food web to elevated water temperatures is currently unclear. Climate change and increased variability in climate parameters will drive changes in aquatic habitat parameters. Such changes will affect the fish directly as well as indirectly via impacts on their prey, predators, and parasites. (Source: International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Information required to project responses of arctic fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Information_required_to_project_responses_of_arctic_fish)Species at or near the northern limit of their distributional range are expected to benefit from increased growth and productivity. The effect on the population as a whole may be uncertain, as northern range expansion may be offset by a contraction of their southern range. (Source: International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Information required to project responses of arctic fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth.

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Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Information_required_to_project_responses_of_arctic_fish) and International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Effects of climate change on arctic anadromous fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Effects_of_climate_change_on_arctic_anadromous_fish

Other climate parameters such as precipitation (amount and type) will directly affect aquatic habitat parameters such as productivity and flow regimes (quantity and timing). For example, changes in annual hydrographs and shifts in water sources may alter the availability of northern rivers as migratory routes for anadromous fish. Increased and earlier spring flows are very likely to enhance fish survival during out-migration and lengthen the potential summer feeding period at sea (both positive effects at the levels of the individual fish and the population). However, autumn flows are required in many smaller rivers to provide access to returning fish; reduction in amounts and shifts in timing of these flows could have negative effects. (Source: International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Information required to project responses of arctic fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Information_required_to_project_responses_of_arctic_fish)

Prior to the 1930s and 1940s, Inuvialuit lived at a number of locations along the Beaufort Sea coast and fished for Dolly Varden char at coastal river mouths and at fish holes inland on streams that had spawning char. Char is no longer essential for survival but it remains important for food and cultural purposes. Char continues to be harvested but at a more limited number of sites, primarily close to summer camps. Inuvialuit elders and fishers agreed that the char population of the Big Fish River is significantly reduced and is at a critical stage. This is thought to have resulted from significantly reduced river flows, possible changes in water salinity, or possible overfishing of an already stressed fish stock. Char populations in other streams west of the Mackenzie River have either not been assessed or may be in decline. (sources: Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2010 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan for Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma malma) of the Gwich’in Settlement Area and Inuvialuit Settlement Region Northwest Territories 2010 – 2014 Volume 1: The Plan http://grrb.nt.ca/pdf/Public%20registry/management%20plans/Dolly%20Varden%20IFMP_Draft_05.21.2010.pdf; http://www.grrb.nt.ca/pdf/Public%20registry/management%20plans/Tsiigehtchic_Public%20IFMP%20Meeting_Minutes.pdf

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Additional secondary environmental factors that may change in response to direct changes in basic climate parameters will also have important effects on fish. These include the nature and duration of freeze-up, ice types, ice-cover periods, and breakup, and the nature and penetration of incident radiation into aquatic systems. Similarly, terrestrial impacts of climate change may influence aquatic habitat and indirectly affect its biota (e.g., permafrost alteration and runoff influences on sediment loads, pH and related water chemistry, etc.). Another potential class of indirect effects of climate change includes those affecting the behavior of aquatic biota. For example, fish use thermal regimes and spatiotemporal shifts in these regimes, at least in part, as behavioral cues or thresholds to trigger critical life history functions. (Source: International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Information required to project responses of arctic fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Information_required_to_project_responses_of_arctic_fish)

A 1998 survey of community concerns about Inconnu (Coney) in the Gwich’in Settlement Area indicated that most people thought that Coney were abundant in the region. Coney is used throughout the year but most are caught in July and August. Most people were not sure if there were environmental changes that have influenced Coney population. The changes noted in the survey included warmer temperatures, late river freeze up and early river break up. Source: Simon, P. 1998. Community concerns on coney (inconnu) in the Gwich'in Settlement Area - DRAFT Report. GRRB 1998

Concentrations of mercury and other chemicals (e.g., DDT, PCBs) have increased in Mackenzie River burbot since the late 1980s185. These trends were attributed to increasing absorption of contaminants by the profusion of algae, zooplankton, and other small aquatic organisms made possible by climate change. As temperatures in the region get warmer, less ice forms on the river and microscopic plant-like life, such as algae, multiply. Particles of harmful chemicals in the water - left over from southern air pollution more than 20 years ago, before DDT and PCBs were banned - stick to the algae. The fish then eat the algae and the contaminants work their way up the food chain. The increase in biological activity in Canada’s north, which is likely driven by climate warming, may have the potential to increase harmful chemical residues in fish and other animals in the region186.

In addition, warmer conditions are projected to reduce the length of winter, shorten the ice season, and reduce ice-cover thickness. Thus, streams that were previously frozen solid will very probably retain water beneath the ice, benefiting anadromous species that utilize streams for winter habitat (e.g., Dolly Varden char). Overwintering habitat is critical for arctic species and is typically limited in capacity. However, the shortened ice season and thinner ice are very likely to reduce ice-jam severity. This will have implications for productive river

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deltas that require flooding. There are several species, such as Arctic cisco, that rely on deltas as feeding areas, particularly in spring. (source: International Arctic Science Committee (2010) Effects of climate change on arctic anadromous fish. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). Retrieved September 27, 2011 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Effects_of_climate_change_on_arctic_anadromous_fish)

5.5.3.2 Aquatic Mammals and Migratory Birds

Populations of aquatic mammals and migratory birds that are dependent on the large wetland areas in the Mackenzie River Basin will likely be affected by changes in the seasonal flooding regime that result from climate change. For example, the PAD has historically supported one of the largest muskrat populations in North America because the perched lakes made ideal habitat. Migratory birds used the wetlands annually176. The current PAD muskrat population seems to be in decline and may decrease further if spring flooding is further reduced by climate change. The loss of wetland areas will also reduce habitat for migratory birds.

Muskrat populations in the PAD have declined dramatically since the 1960’s, although cycles of population increase and decrease have occurred. A prolonged drought from 1974 to 1996 resulted in the disappearance of muskrats from many of the Delta’s lakes and marshes. Muskrats returned to a number of perched basins by 1998, but the population collapsed again from 1998 to 2000, likely due to lower water levels, insufficient food supplies, predation, and disease187. Declining water levels in the Delta have led to deterioration of habitat conditions, to the point where muskrat survival over winter is unlikely190.

Beaver populations increased in the Peace and Athabasca River Sub-basins from 1970 to 1995. This increase was attributed to a decrease in trapping pressure and demand for furs1. While outside the Mackenzie Basin and used here for comparison, in the southern Yukon River watershed, climate change is another factor believed to influence increasing beaver populations. Concerns there were raised about the impact of increasing beaver populations on local aquatic ecosystems including changes in drainage/flooding.

The responses of plant and animal communities to climate change are very difficult predict. This is because plant and animals respond indirectly to climate change, through responses to secondary effects such as changes to their physical and chemical environments, changes in food webs, and predator-prey relationships. Climate change may affect aquatic and semi-terrestrial biota differently, depending on the relative magnitude of the physical and chemical changes that occur in the terrestrial and aquatic environments. Both the rate and magnitude

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of climate change influence the overall effect of climate change on biological communities in the basin.

Changes in wildlife populations and distributions have been directly observed by resource users in the Mackenzie River Basin. “… Ducks, geese, swans and cranes are all over the [Mackenzie] Delta and along the coast. We see them everywhere we travel. There are getting to be more owls and some hawks and eagles.” (Comments from residents of Aklavik as reported by Inuvialuit and Gwich’in Community Monitors, 2007) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-op (2008) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Community Reports 2006-2007

5.5.4 In-stream Uses

Aquatic ecosystems in the Mackenzie River Basin are used extensively by basin residents and visitors. Climate change may affect the harvest of plants and animals, consumption of drinking water, and aquatic transportation and tourism activities. For example, decreased river flow and lake volumes would reduce the amount of water that could be extracted for domestic and industrial consumption without compromising ecological functions.

The effects of climate change on the use of basin aquatic ecosystems will depend on how valued environmental components respond to climate change. Domestic, commercial, and recreational fisheries are pursued in the Mackenzie River Basin188. These relatively small fisheries will be influenced differently by climate change, due in part to their dependence on other factors, such as markets and capital cost, and their ability to adapt to changing resource abundance.

An example is the commercial and sport fishery for lake trout, northern pike, whitefish, and inconnu in Great Slave Lake. These fisheries are managed with dynamic area-closures, catch limits, and gear restrictions, to ensure that a healthy balance of valued species is conserved while meeting the needs of the users189. This type of flexible resource management is important in the face of climate change; as fish communities shift with changes in available preferred habitat, these fisheries can shift to new species or adapt to new circumstances.

Reduced flows and lower lake levels will affect open-water navigation. Changes to ice cover and thickness due to increased air temperatures will affect winter navigation. River and lake transportation planning will need to adapt as safe ice road and open-water use periods change. A modeling study190 of the effects of climate change on navigation on the Mackenzie River suggests that open-water navigation will benefit from climate change: the earlier spring freshet and higher fall flows will result in an overall improved open-water season.

However, the change in the timing of fall freeze-up and spring melt may affect local and traditional travel patterns. “There was lots of overflow in the rivers, which made it hard to trust when trying to travel. There was lots of overflow until the end of January. (Community

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Ecological Monitor Annie Gordon, 2007, describing overflow around Aklavik the previous winter as described by Inuvialuit residents in her community)”. Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-op (2008) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Community Reports 2006-2007 “Too much overflow and ice dropping in the creeks made it very dangerous for travel. It’s hard to travel in overflow. There’s hardly any snow so we have high cut banks. I notice more willows in some places. Caribou were late coming” (additional Inuvialuit observations near Aklavik describing overflow conditions during the winter of 2006-2007). Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-op (2008) Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Community Reports 2006-2007

Access to resources is often related to the ability to travel on land or ice. For example, changes in the rate of spring melt and the increased variability associated with spring weather conditions can often limit community access to hunting and fishing camps Berkes, F. and D. Jolly. 2001. Adapting to climate change: social-ecological resilience in a Canadian western Arctic community. Conservation Ecology 5(2): 18. [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol5/iss2/art18/.

People in the basin will need to adapt to the effects of climate change on current use patterns of the aquatic environment and resources.

5.5.5 Human Health and Safety

The key human health and safety issues associated with climate change include changes in the incidence of natural hazards such as floods, forest fires, severe winter storms, and hazards with use of ice roads191. Ice roads have been used for hunting and travel in northern communities during the last few decades. Delays in the opening of ice roads or early closures, caused by climate change, similar to delays in opening the road between Tulita and Norman Wells due to El Niño events130, could increase the risk of unsafe use of these roads, as residents may sometimes use these routes before they are open to commercial traffic or after they are officially closed for the season and no longer maintained.

Other hazards include potential infrastructure failure, including building foundations, roads, and pipelines, caused by thawing permafrost192. Climate change in the basin is expected to influence the frequency of infrastructure-related hazards.

Climate change will also change how and when traditional resources are used. “Most people in Fort Resolution view climate change as a threat to their way of life, yet it remains secondary to more immediate problems, as in most communities. People are well aware that the change is occurring, but they do not fully recognize the consequences, nor do they believe that their own actions can help mitigate the impacts. For those who expressed themselves on this issue, reconnecting with cultural roots predominates as the primary mechanism for dealing with changing landscape, and for improving cohesiveness and well being for the community”. (Wesche, S. (2007)

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Adapting to Change in Canada’s North: Voices from Fort Resolution pp 19-25; in Canadian Polar Institute Meridian Spring/Summer 2007)

Aboriginal communities are partly dependent on subsistence for their livelihood. Declines or uncertainties in the availability of moose, caribou, deer, fish and wild rice will increase dependence on imported foods. Unsuitable snow and ground conditions greatly hamper travel to trap lines, hunting grounds, and fishing areas At the February 2004 Prince Albert [Saskatchewan] Grand Council Elders’ Forum, elders reported more frequent extreme weather events, deteriorating water quality, changes in species distributions, changes in plant life and decreasing quality of animal pelts. Traditional Knowledge and land management systems served as a source of resiliency in the past, and could play an important role in strengthening adaptive capacity in the future Ermine, W., Nilson, R., Sauchyn, D. Sauve, E, and Smith R.Y (2004) Isi Askiwan—The State of the Land: Prince Albert Grand Council Elders’ Forum on Climate Change 49pp

“You have to be connected to the land; that’s where you get your identity from. That’s where you realize what you are. You become humble when you know that the water could take your life, like that, in one instant. You always have respect for the land because it’s unforgiving. If you fall through the ice in the wintertime the chances of surviving are pretty slim if you’re alone” (Maurice Boucher, Fort Resolution, 2005). (Wesche, S. (2007) Adapting to Change in Canada’s North: Voices from Fort Resolution pp 19-25; in Canadian Polar Institute Meridian Spring/Summer 2007)

As aquatic resource availability and usability changes, people living in the Mackenzie River Basin will need to adapt and learn to manage climate-related changes, including new or greater hazards to human health and safety. Human health may be affected by changes in water and air quality, changes in the physical environment, and changes in resource availability that will come with climate change.

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6.0 CONCLUSIONS

6.1 EFFECTS OF OIL SANDS DEVELOPMENT

Although oil sands development is occurring in both the lower Athabasca and lower Peace Sub-basins, the focus of development—and the area where concerns about the environmental effects are greatest—is the lower Athabasca River Basin, mainly because of the occurrence of oil sands surface mining in this region. Over 600 km2 are currently under development, including more than 130 km2 of tailings ponds. Fort McMurray has become by far the largest city in the Mackenzie River Basin.The large terrestrial footprints of oil sands surface mines have modified natural drainage patterns in many tributary watersheds to the Athabasca River. In situ extraction facilities will dominate future oil sands development. These facilities have much smaller terrestrial footprints than surface mines and do not require large tailings ponds. However, operation of in situ facilities can create greater terrestrial habitat fragmentation than surface mines through road, seismic-line, and pipeline development, and could affect aquatic habitats through construction-related effects of stream crossings, changes in the water table that could potentially lead to land subsidence or drying of wetlands, influences of aerial emissions, and indirect effects of increased access to fish and wildlife resources that these rights-of-way may provide.The maximum permitted water withdrawal by all oil sands facilities under existing water licenses is 2.7% of the Athabasca River mean annual flow; under low flow conditions, withdrawals are capped at 1.3%. In 2008, oil sands operations consumed 145 million metres3 of water from the Athabasca River and its tributaries. This represented 0.73% of the Athabasca’s mean annual flow as measured at Fort McMurray. The Athabasca River’s rate of flow is considered by some researchers to have remained relatively stable while others describe it as having declined. Aboriginal resource users have reported decreasing flows on the Athabasca River which are affecting their ability to access traditional navigation routes and harvesting areas.

There are several multi-stakeholder organizations that conduct monitoring in the oil sands area and downstream. Based on several independent panel reviews, there is a general consensus that current monitoring systems are not adequate to assess impacts of oil sands development. The Governments of Canada and Alberta are working collaboratively to develop a world-class monitoring system for the oil sands.

While there has been uncertainty about social and ecological effects of oil sands development based on the results of scientific monitoring programs, this uncertainty does not exist within the downstream Aboriginal communities. Aboriginal residents of the area have reported deteriorating colour, taste, and odour of river water. People no longer

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drink directly from these waters as they once did, for fear of contaminants. Aboriginal residents have also reported poor fish health and palatability relative to historical conditions. Similar observations have been made about waterfowl and aquatic mammals in the region.

There is currently insufficient research and data to determine whether existing oil sands activities are adversely affecting human health, either directly or indirectly. The Government of Alberta is currently working with Health Canada and First Nations to do a human health study in communities downstream of the oil sands.

6.2 EFFECTS OF HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENT

There are 11 existing and 9 proposed (in either the feasibility or regulatory assessment phase) hydroelectric facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin. The largest of these is W.A.C. Bennett Dam and Williston Reservoir, where outflow is regulated based on the pattern of electrical demand. Flow regulation in the upper Peace River has had a diminishing influence on the natural hydrograph of downstream reaches as far as the Slave River, reducing seasonal flooding on the Peace River mainstem and increasing minimum flows.

There is little first hand data available on the effects of hydroelectric facilities on water quality in the Mackenzie River Basin. This also extends to contaminant levels in fish. Water quality effects are believed to follow the same pattern as other northern reservoirs for which data are available, where mercury and other contaminants initially increase after flooding due to leaching and vegetation decay, but levels stabilize and decline over time as leaching slows and the rate of vegetation decay declines.

Flooding of Williston Reservoir changed the pre-existing terrestrial and riparian aquatic habitats into a lacustrine habitat. This flooding is believed to have initially mobilized naturally occurring mercury into the aquatic ecosystem following construction of the dam.

The approved Dunvegan Dam in Alberta and the proposed Site C facility in BC would each flood a narrow reach of the Peace River valley. Neither is expected to cause major changes to the river’s downstream hydrograph because they would not alter the daily average flow regime controlled by Bennett Dam.

The effects of the other, smaller hydro facilities on water quality and quantity are believed to be relatively minor, based on available information. For example, the cumulative effects of the four facilities on the Snare River north of Great Slave Lake are not perceptible from available data.

Drying trends observed in the PAD ecosystem that have previously been attributed solely to the commissioning of W.A.C. Bennett Dam are now understood to be the cumulative result of a warmer, drier climate, flow regulation, land use change and developments, including forestry,

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agriculture, and oil sands extraction, growing water uses, and natural and manmade changes to the Athabasca River channel.

Hydroelectric facilities, as well as regulated downstream flow regimes, can provide direct and indirect economic benefits. They can also pose safety hazards to people who use these watercourses for food harvesting, livelihood, or transportation. Rapid changes in water levels can create hazards for shoreline activities. Similarly, rapid changes in flow volume and velocity below a dam can be hazardous. In winter, rapid water level changes, as well as releases of relatively warm water, can destabilize ice cover. Traditional resource use patterns around hydroelectric facilities, regardless of their size, have changed. Harvest disruption occurs because access to hunting, fishing, and trapping areas becomes difficult or impossible because of reservoir flooding, debris, increased discharge, or unstable ice conditions.

6.3 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is an ongoing phenomenon in the Mackenzie River Basin and is expected to continue in response to increasing greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere. The Mackenzie River Basin is warming at a faster rate than most other areas on Earth because of increasing levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, decreasing surface albedo, changes in cloud cover, and enhanced transport of heat energy poleward by atmospheric weather systems. While changes in seasonal and annual air temperatures and changes to the timing of annual freeze-thaw regimes have been clearly documented, predicted changes in other climate variables such as precipitation and the associated effects on river flows and lake levels, have not been consistently seen to date. Baseline environmental data of any kind is in short supply in much of the Mackenzie River Basin, particularly in remote, northern areas, and currently limits the ability to examine or track long-term changes in environmental conditions in the basin. The effects of climate change on aquatic environments of the basin will therefore not always be readily apparent. The average annual temperature has increased by 2C in the Mackenzie River Basin and the average winter temperature has increased by 4C. The average temperature in southern Canada increased between 0.5 and 1.5C. The number of extreme warm days has increased while the number of extreme cold days has decreased in the Mackenzie River Basin. This has meant that spring thaw happens earlier and fall freeze-up happens late. Warmer temperatures have also shifted spring runoff and peak river flows earlier in the season. Anticipated changes in other climate variables, such as precipitation patterns, and their associated effects on river flows and lake levels, have not been consistently observed to date. Average precipitation rates have generally increased, but not consistently across the Basin on either a seasonal or annual basis. Consistent, basin-wide changes in annual stream flow have not been observed.

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Permafrost degradation is an indicator of climate change that will likely have the greatest single effect on aquatic environments, and on lives and livelihoods in the Mackenzie River Basin. Changes to basin hydrology from melting permafrost will directly affect aquatic environments and human use of the aquatic environment. Moreover, melting permafrost will directly affect development in the basin and community activities that are dependent on stable frozen ground.Although climate change may occur most strongly in the northern portions of the basin, the entire basin will be affected by climate change, likely in some ways that have yet to be contemplated. As aquatic resource availability and usability changes, people living in the Mackenzie River Basin will need to adapt and learn to manage climate-related changes, including new or greater hazards to human health and safety. Human health may be affected by changes in water and air quality, changes in the physical environment, and changes in resource availability that will come with climate change.

6.4 INDIRECT AND CUMULATIVE EFFECTS

The effects of oil sands development, hydroelectric development and climate change in the Mackenzie River Basin are and will continue to be cumulative, particularly for water quantity. For example, decreased upstream river flows during the summer caused by warmer, drier conditions may decrease the resiliency of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, intensifying the environmental effects of water withdrawals by oil sands operators as flows that approach the minimum ecological baseline become more common; conversely, higher winter flows generated by warmer temperatures and higher precipitation may increase downstream ecosystem resiliency. On the other hand, more winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow during the winter could increase winter river flows but decrease spring freshet flows. This could influence, for example, the potential for ice-jam flooding in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, which is probably the clearest example in the Mackenzie River Basin of where cumulative effects have generated ecological change on a landscape scale.

“The [Peace-Athabasca] delta has been drying out. The swamps have been turning into meadows and the meadows into woods” (Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation).

However, there is a great deal of uncertainty associated with any climate change scenario when it is related to water management strategies because many positive feedback loops (when phenomena work together to generate or amplify an effect) and negative feedback loops (when phenomena work against one another to mitigate an effect) are as yet poorly understood. It is also important to realize that there are other factors that will contribute to cumulative ecological change in the basin, including but not limited to human population growth, species range shifts, and forestry, oil and gas, mining and other resource based activities.

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“They are really destroying the water... right from the farmer’s fields... we have things coming down, you know, after a rain...the highways, they have salt, that ends up here... the sewers, whatever they discharge... the pulp mills, the mines from the east... we’re collecting, we’re the dumping ground... It’s very dangerous to live here... I call it a danger zone, a red zone in this area, we’ve lost so many people (Big Ray Ladouceur, Fort Chipewyan, interviewed in 2007 Source: Timoney 2007)

“The environmental history of the Peace [River] was a history of the senses: the sounds of the bush, the color of ice, the shape of the river. Changes to the river's flow and ice formation meant that there were no longer the same spectacular ice jams in the spring that were so important to flooding and replenishing the delta. The land signaled its thirst with silence: ‘Today you go on [Chipewyan Indian] Reserve [201], you look, you listen for the sounds of birds, waterfowl, ducks, geese. You don’t hear anything anymore.’” (Josephine Mercredi, 1998) Indian Claims Commission (1998) Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation Inquiry: WAC Bennett Dam and Damage to Indian Reserve 201

Ecological change triggered by cumulative effects will be felt most keenly in the Mackenzie River Basin by those who still rely on the land, water, and its resources – Aboriginal residents – as a source of food, livelihood and cultural sustainability. Many Aboriginal residents, not all of them Elders, have already seen striking changes to the landscape and their way of life in their lifetimes.

“When we were children we still drank the water from the river channel flowing out from the [Peace-Athabasca] Delta, past our on-reserve communities and Fort Chipewyan. The abundant fish, game and waterfowl of the Delta fed our families. The rich harvests of muskrat and beaver helped to clothe, shelter, and feed us. Today, we will not allow our loved ones to drink the water from the river. The abundance of the past is now only a memory as the water levels in the delta have dropped significantly since the W.A.C. Bennett Dam was developed in the late 1960s. We have experienced oil spills whereby our Elders were exposed to toxic chemicals during the clean-up, and our reserves became dumping grounds for the toxic waste.” (Chief Allen Adams, Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation and Chief Roxanne Marcel, Mikisew Cree First Nation 2010)

The uncertainty associated with cumulative ecological effects means that water managers in the Mackenzie River Basin simply cannot assume that the state of the aquatic ecosystem will remain stable over the long term. Proactive and adaptive water resource management, based on the precautionary principle, will help ensure that the Governments of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Northwest Territories, Yukon and Canada which share the Mackenzie River Basin can cooperatively manage the water resources to maintain the ecological integrity of the aquatic ecosystem and cooperatively manage water resources sustainably for present and future

MRBB SOAER 2010 (Nov 2011 Draft) 106

generations, as set forth under the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary Waters Master Agreement.

6.5 GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE

Oil Sands

It is currently difficult to comment on knowledge gaps related to oil sands effects on aquatic ecosystems because of the rapid and fundamental changes in the oil sands monitoring philosophy that occurred while this report was being drafted. It is extremely encouraging that the Governments of Alberta and Canada are revising the scope and scale of oil sands monitoring programs. The commitment by the Government of Alberta, Health Canada, and First Nations to conduct a human health study in downstream Aboriginal communities is equally encouraging

The next MRBB State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report will report on the implementation of the integrated oil sands monitoring program, as well as preliminary results.

Hydroelectric Development

Water quantity data is generally available in watersheds that host hydroelectric facilities in the Mackenzie River Basin. However, there is very little information on water quality and aquatic ecosystem health data that is available for hydroelectric facilities and their downstream reaches in the Mackenzie River Basin, regardless of the jurisdiction in which they are located. There is, as a result, very little commentary in this report that specifically describes the impacts of hydroelectric facilities on water quality and ecosystem health in the Mackenzie River Basin.

Climate Change

Climate change is affecting and will continue to affect all aspects of water management in the Mackenzie River Basin. There is, however, insufficient baseline climatic data available to inform water management decisions. This is partially a function of the scale and complexity of the climate change issue. However, there were instances in this report where proxy data from outside the Mackenzie River Basin was used to illustrate climate change trends because long term data was not available.

Traditional Knowledge

The MRBB Traditional Knowledge and Partnerships Committee was tasked with gathering and reviewing Traditional Knowledge in academic literature, as well as industry, government and aboriginal publications and reports related to Oil Sands, Hydroelectric Development, and Climate Change from First Nation, Inuvialuit, and Métis communities in the Mackenzie River Basin. Traditional Knowledge studies are

MRBB SOAER 2010 (Nov 2011 Draft) 107

documented for different purposes and so vary in approach, methods, analysis, and communication of results. The Traditional Knowledge literature related to aquatic habitat in the Mackenzie River Basin described in this report represents a subset of a larger body of Traditional Knowledge literature from and about Aboriginal peoples within the five jurisdictions. The review found that the themes of greatest concern were: the recognition and respect of Aboriginal rights, the impacts of industrial activity on human health (e.g. contaminants) and sustainable economic development.

Much of the documented Traditional Knowledge goes beyond the frame of “data” about water quality, quantity and aquatic resources, and instead has a much broader and integrated (including spiritual) perspective on aquatic issues in the Mackenzie River Basin. Many sources cannot be classified as relevant to one of the three themed categories, but instead either cut across themes (e.g. were relevant to both climate change and hydro) or were broader in nature, falling under the realm of Cumulative Effects.

The number of research projects that involve Traditional Knowledge in the Mackenzie River Basin is increasing. However, based on this review, the Traditional Knowledge and Partnerships Committee determined that there are significant gaps in documented Traditional Knowledge. When compared with the availability of western science, Traditional Knowledge is underrepresented in all areas of the Mackenzie River Basin. These gaps exist throughout the Mackenzie River Basin, particularly in BC, Saskatchewan, and Yukon, although the reasons behind these gaps are not clear.

Thematically, significant gaps exist in the available documented Traditional Knowledge related to the report themes, particularly climate change. Available information on the effects of climate change is growing however, particularly in the extreme northern part of the basin. A significant body of Traditional Knowledge related to hydroelectric development exists for NWT, BC and Alberta; however most of the information predates the year 2000. Available Traditional Knowledge related to the oil sands region is mostly limited to studies funded through environmental assessment processes; however, concerns about the human health effects of oil sands development particularly those related to downstream effects on the Athabasca River, have been a growing area of concern and study for communities in the region for some time now.

Given the significant gaps in available Traditional Knowledge, it was difficult to develop parallel discussions with the science synthesized for the report. Furthermore, the perspectives of Traditional Knowledge holders on the state of aquatic resources in the Mackenzie Basin differed from those of biologists or western scientists.

The integration of Aboriginal Traditional Knowledge and science-based assessments can be challenging, but each has different, complementary strengths. These include the systematic, structured

MRBB SOAER 2010 (Nov 2011 Draft) 108

nature of scientific investigations and the subtle, comprehensive understanding of long-term baseline conditions provided by Traditional Knowledge. In the Mackenzie River Basin, a vast, long-settled territory experiencing rapid, basin-wide changes not previously experienced by its inhabitants, both types of knowledge need to be considered to effectively detect, monitor, and manage environmental change.

General

There is currently no requirement to harmonize federal, provincial and industrial water quality monitoring programs throughout the Mackenzie River Basin, particularly with respect to baselines, key indicators, analytical methods, and sampling frequency. Given the number of jurisdictions that share the Mackenzie River Basin, this makes it difficult to cooperatively manage the water resources.

Efforts by the Governments of Alberta and Canada to improve environmental monitoring in the oil sands region are encouraging; the integrated monitoring plan is designed to achieve a consistent regional approach in terms of sampling strategies, improved coordination of monitoring approaches and standardization and comparability of data. Efforts being undertaken by the Governments of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and the Northwest Territories to negotiate bilateral water management agreements for the Peace, Athabasca and Slave River Watersheds are also encouraging, as these provide an opportunity to incorporate consistent water management protocols amongst the jurisdictions.

In the face of ongoing developments and potential modifying factors such as basin-wide climate change, investigators may face a “shifting baseline”, which could limit the value and applicability of previous scientific studies, and may complicate the interpretation of local Traditional Knowledge, which is based on a long-term understanding of previously predictable, baseline conditions. There is a need to continually track baseline characteristics of local aquatic ecosystems, using both science-based and Traditional Knowledge-based approaches—not simply to assess current change, but also to collect data against which future changes may be assessed.

MRBB SOAER 2010 (Nov 2011 Draft) 109

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MRBB SOAER 2010 (Nov 2011 Draft) 110

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