introduction - knoxville-knox county planningarchive.knoxmpc.org/pefa/loudon/presentation.pdflenoir...

March 1, 2007

Introduction• The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the

Knoxville/Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC) comprise the Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA).

• PEFA worked with the Loudon County Mayor’s Office, Lenoir City Schools, and Loudon County Schools to evaluate education facility needs.

March 1, 2007

IntroductionProject Components• Overview of recent trends in public school enrollment,

demographics, and land development in Loudon County.

• Countywide, school-by-school, and bus zone enrollment projections.

• Comparison of enrollments (actual and projected) to facility capacities.

• Assessment of physical condition of all public school buildings.

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

March 1, 2007

Demographic TrendsCountywide Enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07• Total enrollment in regular day classes across Loudon

County (including Lenoir City) showed average annual increase of 1.1 percent in past 5 years, reaching 7,200 students this year.

• Elementary schools (K-5) combined for a 6.6 percent increase since 2002/03.

• High schools added 3.4 percent, while middle school grades gained a modest 2.2 percent in five years.

March 1, 2007

COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL LEVEL, 2002/03-2006/07

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Elementary (K-5) Middle (6-8) High (9-12)

March 1, 2007

Demographic TrendsPre-School Enrollment• Enrollments DO NOT INCLUDE pre-school, currently

comprising about 250 children countywide.• Children are not required to attend pre-school.• Many private pre-kindergarten opportunities exist in

Loudon County.• Not practical to model decision-making processes of

families in terms of pre-school participation.

March 1, 2007

Demographic TrendsPre-School Enrollment• Although enrollments were excluded, classroom space

dedicated to pre-school education was addressed.• Rooms assigned to pre-school instruction were set aside

and reserved for future pre-school use, not re-assigned to current or future K-12 enrollments.

March 1, 2007

Demographic TrendsOut-Of-County (OOC) Enrollment• In 2002/03, OOC students totaled nearly 700, about 10

percent of countywide enrollment.• That number dropped to just under 600 students this

year, when OOC policy changed.• OOC students no longer allowed to transfer into Loudon

system unless:– they are children of school employees. – they have sibling currently attending same school

in which they would be eligible to enroll.• OOC students already in system can remain through

graduation.

March 1, 2007

Demographic TrendsGeneral Population Trends• Between 1990 and 2000, Loudon County’s population

grew at an average annual increase of 2.5 percent.

• In past five years, pace slowed to 2.2 percent growth annually, with total population currently at 43,387.

March 1, 2007

Demographic TrendsGeneral Population Trends• School-age children (5-19 years old) steadily lost shares

of total population between 1980 and 2000, dropping from 24 percent of total to 18 percent.

• Population 55 years and over grew 4.7 percent per year during 1990s.

• By 2020, the number of persons aged 55 years and over will increase to 22,300, representing nearly 40 percent of the county population.

March 1, 2007

Demographic TrendsSources of Population Growth• Migration was primary determinant of population

growth in past six years. • Domestic rather than international migration.• More than 8,600 current residents are new to Loudon

County, having lived in a different county or state in 1995.

March 1, 2007

LOUDON COUNTY NET MIGRATION, 2001-2005

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Total Net Migration 5-Year Average (822)

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

March 1, 2007

Development TrendsRecent Rates of New Home Construction• Pace of residential construction activity accelerated

during 1990s in Loudon County.• First half of 1990s: average of 406 new homes

constructed annually, which was double the rate recorded in the 1980s.

• Second half of 1990s: pace increased again, with 508 homes built each year.

• Rates have remained at that level for the past six years.

March 1, 2007

Development TrendsRecreation/Retirement-Oriented Development• Loudon County is rapidly growing as center for

lifestyles oriented to lakefront, golf, luxury, and retirement living, evidenced by large-scale residential projects like Tellico Village and Rarity Bay.

• 5,800 building lots approved in Tellico Village, with about 2,800 homes currently in place.

• Thousands more homesites platted: Tennessee National (1,700 sites), Rarity Pointe (1,200 sites), and, currently under review, Rarity Landings (1,500 sites).

• Expecting few families with school-age children.

March 1, 2007

Development TrendsConventional Development• Growth areas include recently-sewered corridor of

northeast Loudon County and an area northwest of Lenoir City.

• Several subdivisions platted or underway.• Expecting many families with school-age children.

March 1, 2007

Development TrendsConventional Development• Development in the identified single-family growth

areas has averaged about 105 new homes per year since 2000.

• Placement of sewer lines likely to accelerate residential construction, but growth controls (impact fees) might offset gains if developers balk at additional building costs.

March 1, 2007

Development TrendsStudent Yields• Very few families that purchase homes in

recreation/retirement/luxury developments have children of school-age.

• Fewer than 100 school-age children in Tellico Village.• Tellico Village: 0.03 school children per housing unit.

Equates to 3 children for every 100 homes.

March 1, 2007

Development TrendsStudent YieldsIn conventional housing developments:• Detached units generate 0.494 children under 18 years

of age, per unit.• Attached (townhomes/condominiums): 0.160• Apartments: 0.689 • Mobile homes: 0.725

March 1, 2007

Development TrendsStudent Yields - Example• Detached housing yield of 0.494 children per unit.• 100 new detached homes: approximately 49 children

expected.• Does not mean that 49 children will enter public school

system.• 25 percent of those children will be under age 5.• 4.8 percent, on average, will be homeschooled or will

attend some form of private education.• Original generation of 49 children will net about 35

children that will likely enter public school.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment Projections

March 1, 2007

Enrollment ProjectionsSeries of 10-year projections (2007-2016) for Loudon

County and Lenoir City schools• Three scales of reporting:

– countywide.– school-by-school.– bus zones.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment ProjectionsGrowth Scenarios• Baseline:

– Assumed growth trends of past five years will continue over next 10 years.

– Births will grow in number, but at slow pace.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment ProjectionsGrowth Scenarios• Moderate:

– Assumed in-migration will be consistent with past two years and continue over next 10 years.

– There will be more kindergartners than births (five years earlier) over next 10 years.

– Births will increase moderately over next 10 years.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment ProjectionsGrowth Scenarios• Accelerated:

– Same as moderate for migration and kindergartners.

– Births will increase over next 10 years.– Residential construction in northeast portion of

county and northwest Lenoir City will grow faster than previous years.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment ProjectionsMethodology SummaryThe 10-year enrollment projection model relied on the

following data:• Actual school enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07.• Grade progression ratios, 2002/03-2006/07.• Actual births, 1990-2004.• Projected births, 2005-2011.• Kindergarten-to-birth ratios, 2002/03-2006/07. • Residential growth factor.

March 1, 2007

Countywide Projections

14.93212474Projected: Accelerated9.72092362Projected: Moderate7.71662319Projected: Baseline

2153Current enrollmentHIGH (Grades 9-12)


1727Current enrollmentMIDDLE (Grades 6-8)


3350Current enrollmentELEMENTARY (Grades K-5)


7230Current enrollmentCOUNTYWIDE

2006-20162006-20162016/172006/07Year% GrowthGrowthEnrollmentEnrollment

March 1, 2007

COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT: ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

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Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario

March 1, 2007

ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRADES (K-5): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

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2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

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March 1, 2007

MIDDLE SCHOOL GRADES (6-8): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

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2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

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March 1, 2007

HIGH SCHOOL GRADES (9-12): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

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2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

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March 1, 2007

School-By-School Projections(Accelerated Growth)

SCHOOL-BY-SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, 2006/07-2016/17ACCELERATED GROWTH SCENARIO

810276687229Total868786717Loudon HS

136913231194Lenoir City HS

921880857North MS

423403375Lenoir City MS

458451383Fort Loudoun MS

724678684Greenback

514520526Philadelphia ES

271252237Steekee ES

579549512Loudon ES

706651612Lenoir City ES

486450418Highland Park ES

782724713Eaton ES

2016/172011/122006/07School

March 1, 2007

Bus Zone Projections(Accelerated Growth)

BUS ZONE ENROLLMENT, 2006/07-2016/17ACCELERATED GROWTH SCENARIO

810376697229Total854789771Greenback

601586617Philadelphia

682649677Steekee

137812901052Loudon

168115801416Lenoir City

121311181056Highland Park

169416571640Eaton

2016/172011/122006/07Bus Zone

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

March 1, 2007

Facility CapacitySchool System’s Ability to Serve its PopulationOver-Capacity:• Class sizes exceed accepted teacher-pupil ratios;

inability to adequately provide support services (cafeteria, parking, site access); auditoriums, gymnasiums, libraries, storage rooms serve as classroom space.

• Requires hiring of additional faculty.• Portable classrooms, building wings, entire facilities

might be needed.• Conditions of distraction and disruption, a poor

environment for learning.

March 1, 2007

Facility CapacitySchool System’s Ability to Serve its PopulationUnder-Capacity:• Inefficient to operate physical plant that is not fully

utilized.• Often unable to offer courses, programs, and extra-

curricular activities available at fully-utilized facilities.

March 1, 2007

Facility CapacityFloor Area Capacity (Square Footage Per Student)• Often used by architects when designing new facilities.• Ratio of number of students to total building floor area.• Ratio compared to adopted standards: 150 square feet

per elementary student, 170 sf per middle schooler, and 190 sf for high school students.

• Mechanistic standard, detached from important programmatic considerations.

• Modern measures applied to facilities built decades ago when different sets of building/campus elements were considered important.

• Useful to evaluate expansions or new facilities.

March 1, 2007

Facility CapacityDesign Capacity• Count number of classrooms in school and multiply by

maximum class size (standard teacher-pupil ratio).• Limited by lack of attention to program-specific

facilities.• Curriculum-neutral: allows administrators flexibility

when evaluating building space. During shortages, look at raw inventories to see how much room is available, irrespective of classroom use; adjustments made to programs as necessary to meet space demands.

March 1, 2007

Facility CapacityFunctional Capacity• Accommodates school curriculum. • Current usage of educational program space and pre-

determined number of students assigned to each space (based on pupil-teacher ratios) comprise basic formula.

• According to school administrators, a more realistic measure of capacity.

• Lower than design capacity: excludes floor area dedicated to special uses and incorporates utilizationfactor that further reduces carrying capacity, under rationale that scheduling requirements make it impossible to assign students to all teaching stations every period of every day.

March 1, 2007

Facility CapacityCapacity Thresholds• If facility has reached 100 percent or more of its design

or functional capacity, it is fully occupied.• Professional educators warn that when enrollments

reach 80 to 90 percent of design and functional limits, it’s time to start looking at future enrollments, potential space needs, and options to alleviate strains.

• Don’t wait until buildings are completely full before taking action.

• This study uses 90 percent capacity threshold.

March 1, 2007

Findings

March 1, 2007

FindingsCurrent Conditions• Eaton ES, Ft. Loudoun MS, Highland Park ES, Lenoir City

ES facing functional capacity strains.• Loudon ES exceeded functional capacity: 52-seat

shortage (2.1 classrooms). Also reached design capacity.

• All except Lenoir City MS show floor area shortages.

March 1, 2007

FindingsCurrent Conditions• Countywide, 69% of design capacity for 12-school

system is in use.• Countywide, 84% of functional capacity occupied.• Shortages are result of uneven distribution of students

rather than lack of systemwide room to handle total enrollment.

SCHOOL CAPACITY AND CURRENT ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2006/07

56.283.786327228Total3.374.1320237Steekee ES6.077.7677526Philadelphia ES7.083.01033857North MS9.176.0944717Loudon HS

(2.1)111.3460512Loudon ES6.370.6531375Lenoir City MS

14.177.215471194Lenoir City HS0.996.4635612Lenoir City ES0.199.5420418Highland Park ES8.875.7904684Greenback0.299.0387383Fort Loudoun MS2.592.0775713Eaton ES

Surplusin Use (%)Capacity2006/07SCHOOLShortage/CapacityFunctionalEnrollment

ClassroomFunctional

March 1, 2007

FindingsFuture Conditions – Five Years (2011/12)• Countywide enrollments will grow to 7,700 students:

more classroom shortages will emerge.• Same five schools facing current pressures will see

strains worsen: functional capacity in use will exceed 100% at four facilities.

• Shortages will not be drastic, but additions of 10 classrooms will be necessary.

• Countywide total enrollment will push functional capacity near 90% threshold.

March 1, 2007

FindingsFuture Conditions – Five Years (2011/12)• Loudon ES and Ft. Loudoun MS will have design capacity

deficiencies.• All except Lenoir City MS will show floor area shortfalls.

SCHOOL CAPACITY AND 5-YEAR PROJECTED ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2011/12


(3.6)119.3460549Loudon ES5.175.9531403Lenoir City MS9.085.515471323Lenoir City HS

(0.6)102.5635651Lenoir City ES(1.2)107.1420450Highland Park ES

9.075.0904678Greenback(2.6)116.6387451Fort Loudoun MS

2.093.4775724Eaton ESSurplusin Use (%)Capacity2011/12SCHOOL

Shortage/CapacityFunctionalEnrollmentClassroomFunctional

March 1, 2007

FindingsFuture conditions – Ten Years (2016/17)• By 2016, six schools will experience functional capacity

shortages: the five schools identified as immediate and five-year pressure points, plus Loudon HS.

• 12-school system will exceed functional capacity threshold of 90%, hitting nearly 94% in use with its 8,100 students.

• Total of 15 classrooms will be needed. • Fort Loudoun MS, Highland Park ES, and Loudon ES will

have design capacity shortages. • All 12 schools will fail in floor area standards.

SCHOOL CAPACITY AND 10-YEAR PROJECTED ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2016/17


(4.8)125.9460579Loudon ES4.379.6531423Lenoir City MS7.188.515471369Lenoir City HS

(2.8)111.2635706Lenoir City ES(2.6)115.7420486Highland Park ES

7.280.1904724Greenback(2.9)118.4387458Fort Loudoun MS(0.3)100.9775782Eaton ES

Surplusin Use (%)Capacity2016/17SCHOOLShortage/CapacityFunctionalEnrollment

ClassroomFunctional

March 1, 2007

FindingsPre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity• Pre-school classrooms set aside from facility capacity

calculations and reserved for current pre-school enrollments.

• Classrooms not re-assigned for K-12 use. • School officials contend pre-school education will

become increasingly pressing issue in terms of space demands in next few years, especially if Governor’s Office opens public school systems to all four-year-old children.

March 1, 2007

FindingsPre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity• Currently 252 pre-school children in Loudon County and

Lenoir City.• According to population projections, there will be

about 575 four-year-olds living in Loudon County by 2015.

March 1, 2007

FindingsPre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity• In next 10 years, if it is assumed all 4-year-olds will be

provided pre-school instruction, and maximum room size remains at 20 children, there will be need for 29 pre-school classrooms.

• 17 pre-K classrooms currently in place.• 12 additional rooms will be needed.• Allocate additional rooms across seven facilities

offering elementary instruction (roughly two additional classrooms per ES).

March 1, 2007

Physical Assessment

March 1, 2007

Physical AssessmentProperties Inspected• 13 facilities assessed in November 2006:

– 3 Lenoir City schools.– 9 Loudon County schools, plus Professional

Development Center.• Assessments performed by experts in fields of

architecture, mechanical, and electrical systems, hired by PBA.

March 1, 2007

Bonding Capacity• Currently no available bond capacity at the existing

tax rate.• Provision of additional bond capacity to fund school

construction would require a tax increase.

March 1, 2007

www.knoxmpc.orgDownloads:

• Enrollment projections and school capacities report.• Physical assessment report.

• Presentation.

introduction - knoxville-knox county planningarchive.knoxmpc.org/pefa/loudon/presentation.pdflenoir...

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