introduction: climate volatility and the poor in southern and eastern africa will martin dar es...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in
Southern and Eastern Africa
Will MartinDar es Salaam, Tanzania
24 February, 2010
Supported by the Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development
![Page 2: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why are we concerned?• The poor in Africa are perhaps the most
vulnerable to climate change
What are the goals of this project? • Understand the likely impacts on Tanzania
– Through climate change, crop responses, economic impacts, household responses
• Consider policy responses to promote resilience
![Page 3: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Interdisciplinary Research is Challenging!
![Page 4: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Welcome
So you need great collaborators!
![Page 5: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Carbon Emissions
Impacts
Policy Responses
Adaptation Emissions ReductionFinancing
Natural Systems
Human Systems
![Page 6: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Climate Science Debate
Detection: - Little doubt about global warming – despite recent cold weather in N. Hemisphere - Rise in atmospheric CO2 also unambiguous, as are man-made contributions
Attribution: -Much more complex- Making the connection from rising GHG concentrations to global warming/climate change requires a “counterfactual” experiment: what would the temperature be in absence add’l GHGs?- Hence need for climate models
Not dissimilar to the problem faced by economists who cannot conduct controlled experiments. E.g., what was the impact of the Uruguay Round on Tanzania?
![Page 7: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
To measure impact of increased GHG releases on climate, calibrate model to track current climate with observed GHG, then run counterfactual without human GHG emissions: What lessons can we learn?
![Page 8: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Source: IPCC, 2007
![Page 9: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
IPCC 2007: Key Points Africa
• Among most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability– aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’,
occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity.
• IPCC suggested that agricultural production and food security may be severely compromised– Crop yields likely to fall
![Page 10: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
World Bank Research• World Development Report 2010
– 2°C warming by 2050=> 4-5% reduction in annual income per capita in Africa & S. Asia, vs global avg. GDP drop of 1%
• Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change:– Estimated cost between 2010-50 of adapting to ~2°C warmer
world by 2050 = USD 75-100 billion a year– 7 country case studies, incl Ghana, Ethiopia, & Mozambique
• Development Prospects Group– Emission controls, border tax adjustments, agricultural
productivity, distributional impacts
• Numerous other projects
![Page 11: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Source: WDR, 2010
![Page 12: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Key Points Tanzania
• IPCC (2007) focuses on water sector vulnerability– Interannual lake-level fluctuations and lake-level
volatility owing to periods of intense droughts followed by extreme rainfall events especially in late 1997 (e.g., in Lakes Tanganyika, Victoria and Turkana).
– Mt. Kilimanjaro (see figure)
![Page 13: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Source: IPCC, 2007
![Page 14: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Knowledge Gaps: Climate Volatility & Poverty
• Lobell et al (2008) and Battisti and Naylor (2009)– Extreme climate events will reduce agricultural output in the
tropics & reduce food security in developing countries. – Food insecurity driven by declines in food production
• Primarily rain-fed agriculture makes Tanzania especially vulnerable– only 2 percent of arable land has irrigation facilities
• Majority of the poor live in rural areas where agriculture is the dominant economic activity– Poor consumers are very vulnerable to food price rises
• Few Tanzania-focused analyses of climate impacts on economy or poverty
![Page 15: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
How does this project contribute to filling knowledge gaps?
• Tanzania focus• Focus on climate volatility & extremes• Integrated analytical framework: climate
volatility-crop modeling-economic simulation• High resolution climate modeling for Africa• Statistical & simulation based crop response• Poverty impacts at global, national, &
subnational levels
![Page 16: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Percentage Change in Intensity of 1 in 30 Year Extreme Dry Spell, 1971-2001 vs 2070-99
Source: Diffenbaugh, forthcoming
![Page 17: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Precipitation: Averages & Trends
Source: Rowhani et al
![Page 18: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Analytical Framework
18
CLIMATE ANALYSISSTATISTICAL ESTIMATIONOF CROP YIELDS
GLOBAL ECONOMIC SIMULATION MODEL
HOUSEHOLD MODEL
GRAIN YIELD PREDICTIONS
temperature & precipitation, from General Circulation Models Predicted changes in
crop output, current + future climate
changes in prices & wagesfrom simulation results
POVERTY IMPACTS
Parallel biophysical simulationmodeling
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
NATIONAL ECONOMIC SIMULATION MODEL
![Page 19: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
State of Play
• Fundamental analyses completed– Survey of the relevant literature– Projections of changes in climate & volatility– Estimated crop responses to climate change– Impacts on poverty world wide & in Tanzania– Regional impacts on poverty within Tanzania
• Your feedback and input sought– Especially on how best to contribute to policy
![Page 20: Introduction: Climate Volatility and the Poor in Southern and Eastern Africa Will Martin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 24 February, 2010 Supported by the Trust](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ecf5503460f94bdc82b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Today’s Presentations
1. Tom Hertel: Review of the science and economics of climate change, agriculture and poverty
2. Syud Amer Ahmed: Global analyses of climate volatility & poverty, adaptation potential of trade
3. Channing Arndt: Impacts of climate change at the regional level in Tanzania