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Introduction – Dave Leggett

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Page 1: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Introduction – Dave Leggett

Page 2: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

The 'growth paradox'

Global light vehicle sales forecast at

81m units in 2012, +5.5%. Another

record.

Growth of emerging markets, US

coming back

Western Europe in economic crisis and

car markets tanking; overcapacity

Fixing Europe's economy will take time

No shortage of gloom in Paris

Page 3: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

The European market 'problem'

Page 4: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Car sales decline is uneven, but overall trend is down

Page 5: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Europe's 'squeezed middle'

Premium brands encroach, Asians rise

Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1)Groups

Fiat 9.6 6.8Ford 8.8 7.9GM 10.2 8.3PSA 14.4 12.3Renault 10.6 8.3VW 18.9 23.7BMW 3.7 6.3Japanese brands 10.4 11.9Korean brands 2.8 3.7

Page 6: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

“It is a question of survival for many manufacturers who are struggling to sustain the

same level of capacity as in pre-crisis times.”

Page 7: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Where do we go from here?

More plant closures look inevitable

Other forms of industrial restructuring?

GM and PSA...

Scenario 1: Eurozone crisis eases...US-style 'pent-up demand' recovery?

2014 and beyond

Scenario 2: Eurozone crisis worsens

Currency break-up; banking sector problems; recovery put back further

OEMs also influence their future... with new product

Page 8: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Glenn Brooks

Editor of New & Future Vehicle Programmes

Page 9: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Jaguar

F-TYPE

2013:

C-X75 supercar?

XK replacement

Page 10: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Land Rover

Range Rover

2013:

LWB Range Rover

Range Rover Sport

Page 11: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Volvo

V40 Cross Country

2013:

V60 D6 (diesel hybrid), 1,000 cars to start with

S60 & V60 facelifts

S80 facelift

V70 facelift

XC70 facelift

C70 dies

XC60 facelift

Page 12: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Suzuki

S-Cross concept

2013:

S-Cross production model

(Nissan Qashqai rival)

SX4 replacement

Swift facelift

Honda Mazda

CR-V

2013:

CR-V 1.6 i-DTEC

Civic wagon

Mazda6 wagon & diesel engine

MX-5 facelift

2013:

Mazda2

Mazda3

Mazda5 facelift

Page 13: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Fiat

Freemont 2.4

Panda 4x4, Natural Power

& Trekking

2013:

500 & 500C facelifts

500e

500X

500XL

Bravo replacement

Punto replacement

Lancia Alfa Romeo

2013:

Flavia Cabrio replacement

D-Crossover?

Delta replacement?

2013:

4C

Kamal crossover (‘C-SUV’ / Audi Q5 rival)

MiTo facelift

Page 14: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Jeep

2013:

Jeepster (‘B-SUV’/ twinned with Fiat 500X)

Cherokee

Grand Cherokee facelift

Wrangler facelift

Page 15: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Hyundai

i30 three-door

ix35 Fuel Cell

2013:

i10 replacement

Volt / Prius PHEV rival

(range extender EV)

ix20 facelift

Veloster facelift

Rebodied Carens?

Kia

Carens

pro_cee’d

Sorento facelift

2013:

Soul

Optima & Optima Hybrid facelifts

Sportage facelift

Venga facelift

Picanto facelift

Page 16: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Mercedes-Benz

B 200 Natural Gas Drive

B-Class Electric Drive concept

SLS AMG GT

SLS AMG Electric Drive

2013:

CLA-Class

GLA-Class

S-Class sedan, LWB & coupe

E-Class facelift

smart

forstars concept

2013:

fortwo & fortwo electric drive

forfour & forfour electric drive

Page 17: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

BMW

Concept Active Tourer

2013:

0 Series & 0 Series GT

2 Series (replacements for 1 Series Coupe & Convertible)

M3

4 Series (replacements for 3 Series Coupe & Convertible) & M4

5 Series & 5 Series GT facelifts

5 Series Plug-in Hybrid

M5 facelift

i3

i8

X3 facelift

X4

X5 & X7

Mini

John Cooper Works GP

Paceman

2013:

Mini

Page 18: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Toyota

Auris five-door, hybrid & Tourer

Verso facelift

2013:

Auris Tourer (production from mid-2013)

Avensis

Aygo

RAV4

iQ facelift

Land Cruiser Prado facelift

Prius facelift

Verso-S facelift

Lexus

LF-CC concept

2013:

IS & IS C replacements

CT 200h facelift

GS 300h

PX (RAV4-based Audi Q5 rival)

Page 19: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Renault

Clio

Espace & Grand Espace facelifts

2013:

Clio Captur (crossover, also replaces Modus)

Fluence & Z.E. facelifts

Latitude facelift

Mégane Scénic & Mégane Grand Scénic facelifts

Twingo & Twingo Z.E.

Wind facelift

Dacia

Logan & Sandero

2013:

Duster facelift

Logan MCV replacement

Page 20: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Nissan

TeRRA SUV concept

2013:

Juke facelift

Leaf facelift

Micra facelift

Murano

Note

e-NV 200 (Barcelona-built from 2013)

(no new Pathfinder for Europe)

Qashqai

X-Trail

Page 21: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Opel/Vauxhall

Adam

2013:

Adam cabriolet

Cascada

Insignia facelift

Meriva facelift

RAK e?

VXR8

Chevrolet Ford

Orlando Turbo

Spark facelift

Trax

2013:

Camaro facelift

Corvette

Orlando facelift

Spark BEV (plug-in)

Fiesta facelift

Mondeo (but will not be in

dealers until late 2014)

Tourneo Connect

2013:

C-MAX & Grand C-MAX facelift

(or delayed until 2014

production switch?)

EcoSport

Edge?

Focus facelift

Ka facelift

Mustang?

Page 22: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Peugeot

208 GTI & 208 XY

301

807 facelift

2008 concept

Onyx concept

RCZ facelift & R concept

2013:

108

508 facelift

2008

3008 facelift

3008 HYbrid4 Plug-in

5008 facelift

BB1?

Citroën

C3 Picasso facelift

C8 facelift

C-Elysée

DS3 Cabrio

DS3 Electrum concept

2013:

C1

DS1?

C4 facelift

DS3 facelift

DS9 (C6 replacement)

Page 23: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Audi

A3 Sportback

Q2 Crosslane Coupe concept

(previews new SUV for 2015)

RS 5 Cabriolet

S3

SQ5 TDI exclusive concept

2013:

A1 facelift

A3 sedan & cabrio

S3 Sportback

Q6

Q7

R8 e-tron?

TT

SEAT Škoda

Leon five-door

Toledo

2013:

Exeo

Leon three-door and ST

Alhambra facelift

Tribu

Rapid

2013:

Fabia facelift

Octavia

Roomster

Superb facelift

Yeti facelift

Page 24: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Volkswagen

Golf

Golf GTI concept

Golf BlueMotion concept

2013:

Amarok facelift

e-Golf

Golf Hybrid

Passat

Passat Hybrid

Phaeton

Polo facelift

Scirocco facelift

Sharan facelift

Touran

Touareg facelift

Tiguan

XL1 (‘one litre car’)

Page 25: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Q&A session

You will be emailed details of PLDB – just-auto's low-cost, model-level database showing the production life of 1563 current and future models produced globally by 189 brands from 98 OEMs.

An audio-visual version of the presentation will be available at: www.just-auto.com/webinars

Within 48 hours we will also email you a link to the recorded version of the webinar, including the Q&A session.

Please check www.just-auto.com/webinars for details of upcoming webinars.

Page 26: Introduction – Dave Leggett · Europe's 'squeezed middle' Premium brands encroach, Asians rise Selected shares % 2001 2012 (H1) Groups Fiat 9.6 6.8 Ford 8.8 7.9 GM 10.2 8.3 PSA

Thank you for joining us

www.just-auto.com/pldb