introducing scenaria, inc. - october 2011
DESCRIPTION
Scenaria, Inc. (scenaria.com) is a member of The AVL Group and a leader in analytics-based strategic planning. We leverage model-based market research and planning methods to support objective and informed decisions concerning technology, products, and capacity.TRANSCRIPT
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October 2011
Leaders in analytics-based strategic planning
Technology Planning
For All Scenarios
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Where Do You
Invest Scarce Resources?
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How Do You Address Uncertainty?
Economic
Political
Social Technological
Environmental
Legal
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Economic Uncertainty
Predict the average price for a gallon of
gas in 2025 (Reg. Unleaded in USD)
Text Your Choice To 1-747-444-3548
$3.00 = 146727
$4.00 = 146729
$5.00 = 146731
$6.00 = 146735
$7.00 = 146736
$8.00 = 146737
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Visualizing Your Technology Options
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
7
Full Hybrid /
EV Technology
Engine
Technology
Transmission
Technology
Mild Hybrid
Technology
Vehicle
Technology
Pre
fere
nc
e R
an
kin
g (
-)
Fuel Economy Improvement (%)
(%)
Gas Price
$3
Example Data
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6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
7
Full Hybrid /
EV Technology
Engine
Technology
Transmission
Technology
Mild Hybrid
Technology
Vehicle
Technology
Pre
fere
nc
e R
an
kin
g (
-)
Fuel Economy Improvement (%)
(%)
Gas Price
$8
Example Data
Impact of Uncertainty on Technology
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Legal Uncertainty:
Predict the annual percentage increase
regulated by the 2017-2025 fuel
economy standards
Text Your Choice To 1-747-444-3548
3% = 145122
4% = 145124
5% = 145135
6% = 145138
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Efficient Frontier
Full Field of
Options Lowest Cost
Solution
All Technology
Combinations
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Fu
el E
co
no
my
(M
PG
)
Added Cost per Vehicle (USD)
$ 0 $ 2,000 $ 4,000 $ 6,000 $ 8,000 $ 10,000 $ 12,000
Example Data
Visualizing Your Vehicle Options
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3%
6%
4%
5%
Impact of Uncertainty on Vehicles
Annual Increase In
Fuel Economy (2020)
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scenaria.com
Think forward. Choose wisely.