introducing bnef frontier power - bloomberg …€¦ · · 2017-02-03introducing bnef frontier...
TRANSCRIPT
INTRODUCING BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
30 January 2017
1 30 January 2017
Itamar Orlandi Head of Frontier Power
Nat Bullard Global Head of Executive Insights
2
In the dictionary (Merriam Webster) In the power sector
ldquothe margin of settled or developed territoryrdquo Geographical 12bn people living off the electricity
grid
ldquoline of division between different or opposed
thingsrdquo
Temporal Where the grid and the off-grid meet
~1bn living with regular power outages
ldquoa new field for exploitative or developmental
activityrdquo
Distributed infrastructure for instance 17m off-
or weak grid telecom towers 26m irrigation
pumps in India etc
Remote infrastructure islands mining military
temporary power
ldquofarthermost limits of knowledge or achievement in
a particular subjectrdquo
Technological new technologies applied without
legacy components energy distributed-to-the-
max self-reliant solar and storage energy-as-
a-product
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING FRONTIER POWER
3
Photo credits Wikimedia Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Rand
McNally CPRR America-railscom ldquoHow the auto truck and airplane replaced
the train horse and bicyclerdquo Lawyer 2006
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
~3 cents per mile
185000 miles of network
26bn passenger miles
~7 cents per mile
140000 miles of lsquosurfacedrsquo roads
0024bn passenger miles
4
Source US Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration ldquoAmericas
Highways 1776 ndash 1976rdquo 1977
30 January 2017
THE 1900 ROAD SYSTEM WAS WEATHER DEPENDENT AND INTERMITTENT
Sewell Krocker undertook the
first coast-to-coast car trip in
1903
It took him 63 days
5
Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Ford Model T used to power a
wood chipper
6
Photo credit US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Ford Model T used to
mechanise agriculture
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
1 30 January 2017
Itamar Orlandi Head of Frontier Power
Nat Bullard Global Head of Executive Insights
2
In the dictionary (Merriam Webster) In the power sector
ldquothe margin of settled or developed territoryrdquo Geographical 12bn people living off the electricity
grid
ldquoline of division between different or opposed
thingsrdquo
Temporal Where the grid and the off-grid meet
~1bn living with regular power outages
ldquoa new field for exploitative or developmental
activityrdquo
Distributed infrastructure for instance 17m off-
or weak grid telecom towers 26m irrigation
pumps in India etc
Remote infrastructure islands mining military
temporary power
ldquofarthermost limits of knowledge or achievement in
a particular subjectrdquo
Technological new technologies applied without
legacy components energy distributed-to-the-
max self-reliant solar and storage energy-as-
a-product
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING FRONTIER POWER
3
Photo credits Wikimedia Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Rand
McNally CPRR America-railscom ldquoHow the auto truck and airplane replaced
the train horse and bicyclerdquo Lawyer 2006
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
~3 cents per mile
185000 miles of network
26bn passenger miles
~7 cents per mile
140000 miles of lsquosurfacedrsquo roads
0024bn passenger miles
4
Source US Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration ldquoAmericas
Highways 1776 ndash 1976rdquo 1977
30 January 2017
THE 1900 ROAD SYSTEM WAS WEATHER DEPENDENT AND INTERMITTENT
Sewell Krocker undertook the
first coast-to-coast car trip in
1903
It took him 63 days
5
Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Ford Model T used to power a
wood chipper
6
Photo credit US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Ford Model T used to
mechanise agriculture
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
2
In the dictionary (Merriam Webster) In the power sector
ldquothe margin of settled or developed territoryrdquo Geographical 12bn people living off the electricity
grid
ldquoline of division between different or opposed
thingsrdquo
Temporal Where the grid and the off-grid meet
~1bn living with regular power outages
ldquoa new field for exploitative or developmental
activityrdquo
Distributed infrastructure for instance 17m off-
or weak grid telecom towers 26m irrigation
pumps in India etc
Remote infrastructure islands mining military
temporary power
ldquofarthermost limits of knowledge or achievement in
a particular subjectrdquo
Technological new technologies applied without
legacy components energy distributed-to-the-
max self-reliant solar and storage energy-as-
a-product
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING FRONTIER POWER
3
Photo credits Wikimedia Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Rand
McNally CPRR America-railscom ldquoHow the auto truck and airplane replaced
the train horse and bicyclerdquo Lawyer 2006
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
~3 cents per mile
185000 miles of network
26bn passenger miles
~7 cents per mile
140000 miles of lsquosurfacedrsquo roads
0024bn passenger miles
4
Source US Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration ldquoAmericas
Highways 1776 ndash 1976rdquo 1977
30 January 2017
THE 1900 ROAD SYSTEM WAS WEATHER DEPENDENT AND INTERMITTENT
Sewell Krocker undertook the
first coast-to-coast car trip in
1903
It took him 63 days
5
Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Ford Model T used to power a
wood chipper
6
Photo credit US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Ford Model T used to
mechanise agriculture
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
3
Photo credits Wikimedia Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Rand
McNally CPRR America-railscom ldquoHow the auto truck and airplane replaced
the train horse and bicyclerdquo Lawyer 2006
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
~3 cents per mile
185000 miles of network
26bn passenger miles
~7 cents per mile
140000 miles of lsquosurfacedrsquo roads
0024bn passenger miles
4
Source US Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration ldquoAmericas
Highways 1776 ndash 1976rdquo 1977
30 January 2017
THE 1900 ROAD SYSTEM WAS WEATHER DEPENDENT AND INTERMITTENT
Sewell Krocker undertook the
first coast-to-coast car trip in
1903
It took him 63 days
5
Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Ford Model T used to power a
wood chipper
6
Photo credit US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Ford Model T used to
mechanise agriculture
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
4
Source US Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration ldquoAmericas
Highways 1776 ndash 1976rdquo 1977
30 January 2017
THE 1900 ROAD SYSTEM WAS WEATHER DEPENDENT AND INTERMITTENT
Sewell Krocker undertook the
first coast-to-coast car trip in
1903
It took him 63 days
5
Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Ford Model T used to power a
wood chipper
6
Photo credit US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Ford Model T used to
mechanise agriculture
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
5
Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Ford Model T used to power a
wood chipper
6
Photo credit US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Ford Model T used to
mechanise agriculture
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
6
Photo credit US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Ford Model T used to
mechanise agriculture
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
7 30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
General Motors Acceptance
Corporation
ldquoThe instalment plan was to consumer credit what the
running assembly line was to the automobile industry
[hellip]
Credit financing made the automobile the quintessential
commodity of the American consumer culturerdquo
Lendol Calder Financing the American Dream
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source Rand McNally CPRR America-railscom
30 January 2017
LENGTH OF US RAILWAY NETWORK (MILES)
Introduction of Model T
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
9
Photo credits Wikimedia
30 January 2017
AMERICArsquoS TRANSPORT OPTIONS AROUND 1900
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
10
Photo credits Wikimedia Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
30 January 2017
THE NEXT BILLIONrsquoS ENERGY OPTIONS AROUND 2016
lsquoBig engineeringrsquo
Supply-constrained
Tied to infrastructure
lsquoBig manufacturingrsquo
Demand-driven
Responsive to infrastructure gaps
On demand access
On
demand
use
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
11
Photo credit Photo credit thedayintechwordpresscom Bloomberg
Source Lighting Global Global Off-Grid Lighting Association UNCDF Berenschot
30 January 2017
MAKING HOME LIFE EASIER
Then
TV sets powered by solar home
systems
Now 235m
portable solar
lights and kits
sold
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
12
Photo credit Americarsquos Highways 1776-1976 Bloomberg
30 January 2017
IMPROVING ROADS
Then
Solar powered street lighting
Now
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
13
Source India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Photo credit Anjan Renewable Energy
30 January 2017
MECHANISING FARM WORK
Then
Solar panels power irrigation
projects
Now India
installed 31k
solar pumps
in 2015-16
aiming at
26m
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
14
Photo credit Bloomberg
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
INTRODUCING AND SCALING CONSUMER FINANCE MARKETS
Then
Now $450m
financing to
solar
consumer
loan
companies
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
15
Outages in a
typical month
Losses due to
electrical outages (
of sales)
Electricity from
a generator ()
THIS IS WHAT ENTERPRISES SAY
Source World Bank
9
14
16
33
65
75
Tanzania
India
Egypt Arab Rep
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Pakistan
8
4
1
41
16
25
6
2
6
11
4
21
30 January 2017
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
16
Add sources
01
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current 2015 price
Note Prices are in real (2015) USD lsquoCurrent pricersquo is $061W
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Maycock
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($W) SOLAR SHARE OF
GENERATION ( SYSTEM)
00
00
00
00
01
02
04
08
16
31
63
125
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
005
003
001
15
years
PV COST REDUCTIONS
30 January 2017
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
17
Notes This includes cells plus pack prices For years where there were two surveys the data in this chart is an average
for the year Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 January 2017
BNEF 2016 BATTERY PACK PRICE SURVEY RESULTS 2010-2016 ($ PER KWH)
1000
800
642599
540
350273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-20 -20 -7 -10 -35 -22
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
18
SHARE OF CHINESE PV MODULES AND CELLS EXPORTED TO EMERGING ECONOMIES ( OF TOTAL EXPORTS)
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance Sinoimex
30 January 2017
18
2423 23 22
28
32 32 33
4038 37
3538 38
26 2629
30
37
41
Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
19
Government-
driven mini-grid
roll-out
Distributed
energy finance
portfolios
Micro-utilities
Captive CampI
generation
Retail energy
kits
Retrofits of
existing diesel
assets
HOW CAN CAPITAL BE DEPLOYED IN THE POWER FRONTIER
Source Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Top down Bottom up
30 January 2017
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
20
HOW PERU BUILT LATAMrsquoS FASTEST ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM
Note South Asia includes Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Source World Energy Outlook World Bank
OSINERGMIN Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Brazil Latin America
Peru Bolivia
South Asia Africa
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATES 2000 ndash 2015
HOUSEHOLDS ELECTRIFIED PER $1M
2006 - 2025
30 January 2017
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
21
98
2
0
1
40
60 No
Yes
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN RWANDA STUDY
Source Ignite Power survey N=250
Mobile phone Bank account
86
6 5 3
Farming Trading Salary Transport
Total
78
19
No
Yes
School-going children
Wealth indicators
hellipand its cost (USDmonth for
median user)
Main source of income
17
26
35
22
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
39
36 36
42
Candles Kerosenelamp
Torch Other
30 January 2017
Previously used
technologyhellip
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
GlobalAverage
Africa
Historical Forecast
SMARTPHONE ADOPTION ()
Source GSMA
30 January 2017
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
23
Source LIRNEasia found in Quartz ldquoMillions
of Facebook users have no idea theyrsquore using
the internetrdquo 9 February 2015
30 January 2017
SELF-REPORTED INTERNET USERS AND FACEBOOK USERS PER 100 PEOPLE
ldquoIt seemed that in their minds
the Internet did not existrdquo
Helani Galpaya LIRNEasia 2012
0 10 20 30 40 50
Myanmar
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Facebook users Internet users
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
24
Battery
manufacturers
$2bn capex
Connectivity
and payments
$15bn capex
(Retail)
financing
$43bn micro-
loans
Solar
manufacturing
$4bn capex
Appliances
$26bn RampD
Electricity
$19bn capex
Note capex estimates for listed companies only
WHO OWNS THE INNOVATION TO POWER THE NEXT BILLION
Source Bloomberg responsAbility
Top down
Bottom up
30 January 2017
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
THE FRONTIER POWER SERVICE
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
26 30 January 2017
FURTHER READING
Sample reports
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
27
RESEARCH SCOPE FOR BNEF FRONTIER POWER
Solar lanterns
Solar home systems
DC micro grids
Irrigation and agriculture mechanisation
(Back-up) diesel replacement
CampI energy in emerging markets
Grid improvements
Off-grid Weak grid
247 AC mini-grids
Grid extensions
Communication and critical infrastructure
Uninterrupted power supply
30 January 2017
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
28 30 January 2017
THE TEAM
Itamar Orlandi
Head of Frontier
Power
Michael Wilshire
Head of Strategy
Takehiro Kawahara
Lead Analyst
Raksha Gosai
Data researcher
Isabelle Edwards
Analyst
Ankit Agarwal
Analyst
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
29 30 January 2017
HOW TO ENGAGE
Our public site bnefcom
BNEF clients httpswwwbnefcomcorethemesnext-billion
Inquiries salesbnefbloombergnet
Twitter BloombergNEF
Bloomberg Terminal BNEF ltGOgt
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
30
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance No portion of this document may be photocopied
reproduced scanned into an electronic system or transmitted forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Finance LP Bloomberg LP or any of
their affiliates (Bloomberg) The opinions presented are subject to change without notice Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to buy sell or hold an investment
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
30 January 2017
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet
Unique analysis tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
salesbnefbloombergnet
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops Itamar Orlandi
Nat Bullard
supportbnefbloombergnet