intro to climate change and air quality

7/29/2019 Intro to Climate Change and Air Quality

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INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

Introduction to Climate Change and Integrationwith

Air Quality Management

Muhammad Aqib UddinClean Air for Pakistan Training Course

Addressing Climate Change throughBetter Air Quality ManagementOctober 26-28, Quetta


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Climate change is attributedmostly to the rapidly increasingconcentration of greenhousegases (GHGs) such as CO2 from

human activities in the agriculture,forestry, energy, waste andindustry sectors

Energy (power and transport),Waste and Industry, sectors whichcontribute greatly to GHGemissions, are urban-relatedactivities

What is Climate Change?

Source: Universityof Colorado

Source: Government of Canada website


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Asian Trends - Energy

Energy consumption 1980 2030 Asia: 70% of global growth in energy demand

Non-OECD Asia: energy use triples between 2004 - 2030

Coal use growing in Asia, declining in the West

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/images/06-03-1.gif


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Trends Climate change

Energy-related carbon emissions 2003 - 2030

Carbon emissions to grow worldwide but faster in Asia Main contributors are power generation and transport

http://www.accf.org/images/Test399Fig8.gif


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Trends Climate change (2)

Southeast AsiaTons per capita2004 2030

China 3.6 7.8India 1.0 1.5Other non-OECD

1.7 2.4OECD-

Europe8.2 8.3

US 20.1 21.8

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html

http://maps.grida.no/library/files/web_national_carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_per_capita.jpg

Carbon emissions per capita

(2002) All SE Asian countries below

high income average

Most SE Asian countriesabove world average


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Air quality in Asia is

improving but stillfar above WHOlimits

PM is mainpollutant of concern

Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, mg/m3 (1993 to 2005)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TSPPM10SO2NO2

WHO (1979) TSP guideline,60-90mg/m3

WHO (2005) SO2 24-hour

guideline, 20mg/m3

WHO (2005) PM10guideline, 20mg/m3

WHO NO2 guideline,40mg/m3

Asian Trends Air Pollution


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Pakistan Trend

Coarse Suspended Particulate Matters in Air PM10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Multan Lahore Karachi Peshawer Quetta Faisalabad Rawalpindi

1030

895

230

834910 870

709

Safe Limit

Source: EPAs Punjab , Sindh, NWFP 2006

Safe Limits: WHO Guidelines: 120 mg/m3Japanese Standards: 200 mg/m3


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Climate change impact

depends on type of

pollutant

Ozone (tropospheric )

contributes to warming

(positive radiative

forcing)

Aerosols offset

radiative forcing

(producing a cooling

effect)

Causes and impact: air pollutioninfluences climate change (long-term)

Source: IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment ReportClimate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policy Makers

Image Source: IPCC, 2001. Third Assessment Report The Scientific Basis


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Impacts: Climate change ALSO influences airpollution (short term)

Probability of exceeding O3 limit in Ispra,

Italy (Van Dingenen et al., in preparation)

Increased temperatures (warming) increase probability of exceeding airquality guidelines for ozone

Direct impact of climate change on particulate matter has not beenestablished


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Causes and impacts: aerosols influenceclimate (regional)

Accelerated glacier melting: floods

Rainfall: changing patterns, droughts and floods Blocking of sunlight (global dimming): Reduced agricultural yields

Changes in solar energy reaching the ground Soot intensifies floods and droughts in Asia

(in inches rainfall)

Source: NASA, 2002 - http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020822blackcarbon.html


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Policy integration: IPCC supports co-benefits

approach

Integrating air pollution abatement and climate changemitigation policies offers potentially large cost reductions

compared to treating those policies in isolation

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report


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Objectives of the co-benefits approach

Overlap climate change and air pollution Similar causes (e.g. energy use)

Climate change affects air pollution and vice versa

Air pollution affects short-term climate

Mitigation measures therefore bring multiple benefits (co-benefits)

Reduced GHG emissions and air pollution

Reduced energy use (= increased energy security)

Improved public health

Reduced traffic congestion and road safety

Reduce mitigation costs


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Co-benefits: a simple definition

Killing (at least) two

birds with one stone Climate change

Air pollution

Energy security


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Co-benefits: a more complex definition

Co-benefits from the globalclimate change perspective:additional benefits beyond GHGreductions resulting from climatechange mitigation measures

Reduced air pollution

Associated health benefits

Improved energy security throughreduced energy costs anddependency on oil imports

Increased access to energy

Co-benefits from the Asianregional/local perspective:

additional GHG reductionsresulting from measures aimedto address

Development issues, such as airpollution and associated health

Problems, lack of energy access andsecurity, and other socio-economic

problems


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Integrating AQM and Climate Change

Energy use Domestic Industrial Power generation

Transport Road transport Shipping Aviation Rail

GHG Emissioninventories

Air pollutantEmission

InventoriesCommon weaknesses: Reliable Activity data

Emission factors

Integrated Inventories basedon common methodologies

AQMClimateChange

Mitigation

ClimateChange

Adaptation

Analysis

Action


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Mitigation measures: reduced GHG andimproved local air quality

Low-sulfur coal

Smokestack controls

Catalytic converters

Diesel particle traps

Evaporative controlsGeological andterrestrial sequestration

Land use and land usechange

Control of other GHGs

(NO2, HFCs, PFCs, SF6)

Local

Global

Adapted from JasonWest et al (2002)

Clean fuels/renewable

Energy efficiency programs

Methane gas recovery

Fuel switching

Public transport and landuse

Retirement of older vehicles

Efficiency standards fornew vehicles/appliances

Inspection andmaintenance programs

Integrated

Integrated


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Policy integration: Vietnam example

Clean Air ActNational EnergyEfficiency

Program

http://www.asiandevbank.org/Documents/PIDs/41077012.asp


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Policy integration: Vietnam example (2)

Clean Air ActNational EnergyEfficiency

Program

Climate Change

Act/Program

Good


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Policy integration: Vietnam example (3)

Clean Air Act

Climate change

considerations

National Energy

Efficiency

Program

Climate change

considerations

Better


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Mitigation measures: pick winner first

Carbon Savings

Worse Air Quality

Carbon IncreaseWorse Air Quality Carbon Increase,

Improved Air Quality

Carbon Savings,Improved Air Quality

+PM

+ Carbon

-PM

- CarbonNMT

Biomass

Burning

Renewable

energyEnergy

Efficiency

BRT

Increased fuelconsumption

Increased

motorization

Natural Gas

buses

Natural Gas

Power (leaks)


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Mitigation measures: Transport measures inHyderabad, India

India Transportation Measures

More effective public transit service (i.e., bus, rail,footpaths)

Traffic management and measures to improve traffic flow

Maintenance and operation training programs for two-stroke vehicles

Transport sector largestsource of GHG and airpollutants (Pakistan46% air pollution fromTransport sector)

Range of transportmeasures implemented

Co-benefits (projected)

40% reduction inCO2

50% reduction inPM10

Integrated environmental Strategieshttp://www.epa.gov/ies


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Mitigation measures: BRT system - TransitJakarta, Indonesia

Transport sector large contributor to GHG, airpollutants and traffic congestion

TransJakarta Bus Rapid Transit Systemintroduced in 2004

160,000 passengers/day

7 corridors Separated bus lanes

At-level board platforms

Pre-paid ticketing

Co-benefits 20,000 metric tons CO2 reduction

/year (estimated actual)

Reduced air pollutants (not quantified)

Reduced traffic congestion and traveltimes

http://www.itdp.org/index.php/projects/detail/jakarta_brt/


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Mitigation measures: Dust mitigation inThailand

Lime Master (Thailand) faced dust problems

Bag filters to reduce dust emissions Co-benefits (actual)

Environmental benefits per year Net electricity increase: 109 MW

Fuel oil savings: 66,430 liters

Air emission reductions: 176 tons CO2 , lime dust Recovered lime powder: 730 tons/yr

Financial savings: US$ 56,000/yr, 1 year payback

Social benefits Reduced staff exposure to dust

Reduced community dust exposure

Improved relationship community / government

Government

trigger foroption

Companybenefit

from option

Companybenefit

from option

Companybenefit

from option

Companybenefits

from option


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Co-benefits developments in developedcountries

Europe

Research into co-benefits concept to address air pollution and climatechange (especially energy and transport sectors)

EU proposal to compile joint emissions inventories of GHGs and airpollutants

US

Ongoing discussion to regulate CO2 as a pollutant under the US CleanAir Act

California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopting the co-benefitsconcept in policies to address air pollution and climate change

Japan

Current climate policies no direct reference to co-benefits Collaboration with US on co-benefits theme

Co-benefits related policy research and advocacy in Asia


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Co-benefits developments in developingAsian countries

Co-benefits still new concept in Asian policies

Common topics: climate change mitigation, air quality management,transportation, energy (efficiency, renewables, fuel switch), agriculture,waste management

Increasing number of projects incorporate co-benefits: 25 projectsin 2004, 33 in 2005, 51 in 2006

India is developing climate change policy but has no pronouncedenergy-related targets in economic plans

China has clearest grasp of co-benefits concept

Integrated policies for economy, energy and SO2

Issued first Climate Change Action Plan

Announced Chinese Environmental Macro-Strategy Study

* CAI-Asias Compendium of AQM-related projects. Note: not new projects but cumulative count.


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Triggers to a co-benefits approach in Asia

Increased scientific evidence linking climate changewith other environmental issues

Growing pressure for developing countries toaddress climate change

Increased public awareness of environmental health

problems and demand for cleaner goods andservices

Potential to leverage resources (e.g. carbon market) Relevance of co-benefits in advancing sustainable

development goals


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Barriers to a co-benefits approach in Asia

Lack of tools/models for co-benefits measurement Limited pool of experts Lack of country profiles/baseline information Incoherent sectoral cooperation and institutional

fragmentation of responsibilities

Lack of high-level policy forums with co-benefitsagenda

Disconnect between research/analysis and policy-making

Gap in translating EU/US co-benefits knowledge toAsian context


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Opportunities for a co-benefitsapproach in Asia

Energy efficiency - rapid increase in energy demand but energyefficiency is generally low

Fuels and cleaner technologies advances in cleaner coaltechnologies, which can be applied in Asias expanding power capacity

Renewable energylow share of renewables in Asias energy mixbut high renewable energy potential in many countries

Sustainable urban transport and transport demandmanagement large and growing emission source, and extensiveimprovement opportunities in Asias public transport and non-motorized

transport systems Installing inspection and maintenance systems Large fleets

of poorly maintained ageing vehicle will bring benefits on fuel efficiencyand use, and reduction of emissions


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Co-benefits: the way forward (1)

Knowledge management

Further clarification and consensus on co-benefits definitionrelevant to Asian context

Generation of new knowledge (scientific and technical research)linking climate change with other sectors/issues

Information, education, communication and advocacy to alignapproach with national/local priorities

Systematic documentation and dissemination of co-benefitsrelated research (e.g. US and EU knowledge base) to ensureinitiatives have content and are effective and comprehensive


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Capacity building

Development of methods and tools for quantification, modelingand analysis

Development and implementation of multi-stakeholder co-benefitstraining programs

Development of monitoring and evaluation protocol, and indicators Piloting and documenting co-benefits studies and programs in

Asia


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Policy dialogues

Create policy forums to discuss co-benefits approach

Forums should seek participation from

Decision-makers at different levels of governance

Other stakeholders (academe, private sectors, industry)

Forums structured by Level (regional, national and local)

Theme

Sector


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Networking and collaboration

Mobilize a region-wide multi-stakeholder network

To manage interaction of co-benefits institutions

To help identify Asia-relevant cobenefits objectives and prioritizeactivities

To share information and technical resources

Criteria for partnerships / collaboration with organizations

Experience

Pool of experts

Country or local government partners


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THANK YOU