intro opportunity for higher education in a perfect storm tri-state consortium of opportunity...
TRANSCRIPT
Intro
Opportunity for Higher Educationin a Perfect Storm
Tri-State Consortium of Opportunity ProgramsNewark, New Jersey
April 8, 2013
Tom MortensonSenior Scholar,
The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher EducationHigher Education Policy Analyst,
Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
The Perfect Storm
Realities:
• Stages of economic development:• Primary: agriculture, natural resources
• Secondary: manufacturing
• Tertiary: human capital
• Dynamic demography• Shrinking white/growing minority populations
• Growing shares of poor children in K-12 and higher education
• Aging population, living longer
• Globalization
The Perfect Storm
Federal policy choices:
• Progressive policy era: 1862 to 1980• 1862: Morrill Land Grant Act
• 1895: Second Morrill Land Grant Act
• 1944: Servicemen’s Readjustment Act
• 1957: National Defense Education Act
• 1965: Higher Education Act
• 1972: Pell Grant program
• 1978: Middle Income Student Assistance Act
• Regressive policy era: 1980 to present• 1981, 1982, 1994: Pell Grant maximum award reduced
• 1987: Federal aid moves away from need-based grants
• Aging population, living longer
The Perfect Storm
State policy choices:
• Progressive policy era: to 1980• Universal K-12 education
• State teachers’ colleges
• Junior colleges
• Need-based grant aid
• Increased funding efforts for higher education
• Regressive policy era: 1980 to present• Cutbacks in state appropriations efforts
• Colleges and universities raise tuition charges to students
• Growth in merit based scholarship programs
The Perfect Storm
Institutional policy choices:
• Progressive policy era: to 1980• Universal K-12 education
• State teachers’ colleges
• Junior colleges
• Need-based grant aid
• Increased funding efforts for higher education
• Regressive policy era: 1980 to present• Enrollment management
• Prestige race (U.S. News)
• Revenue replacement: full pay versus institutional aid, non- residents versus state residents
• Research versus instruction in public 4-year institutions
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
K-12 School Lunch Program
Upper Family Income Limits for 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Quartiles
Low Income Student Shares of Total
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
National Avg Resident Undergrad Tuition & Fees in Public Inst
Need-Based Grant Share of State Student Financial Aid
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
Need-Based Share of Federal Student Financial Aid
Purchasing Power of Pell Grant
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year
Changes in Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year
State/Local Appropriations Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year
Institutions
Tuition & fee Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year Insts
Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4-Year Insts
Changes in Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4-
Year Insts
Instruction Share of Core Expenditures in Public 4-Year Insts
Tuition Share of Instruction + Student Services in Public 4-Year
Insts
Public 4-Year Shares of Undergrads with & without Pell
Grants
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
Pell Grants Enrolled in Public & Private in Clgs & Univ
Pell Grant Shares in 4-Year & 2-Year
High School Grad Rates by Family Income Quartiles
College continuation Rates by Income Quartiles
Change in College Continuation Rates
Bachelor’s Degree Completion by Age 24
Change in Completion Rate
Distribution of Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Age 24
Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 yr olds OECD 2003
Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 OECD 2009
Change in Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 OECD 2000-2009
Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree attain OECD 2020
The Perfect Storm
• Reality versus Policy
• Demographics
• Labor Markets
• State Policy Choices
• Federal Policy Choices
• Institutional Policy Choices
• Consequences for (some) students
• Is this class warfare?
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