Intra-MENA trade and investment flows :

Trends and conclusions

Mr. Alexander Böhmer, Head of MENA programme, Private Sector Development, OECD

INTRA-MENA TRADE

FLOWS FEATURES

Section 1

2

Important and stable increase of intra-

MENA trade between 2000-2009

3

15982

31332

64505

82336

70476

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen ( unavailable data for Djibouti) Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat

Evolution of intra-MENA merchandise exports, in million of USD

Implementing of GAFTA

agreement

Main Intra-MENA trade partners

4

60% 18%

18%

4%

Share of intra-MENA exports in 2009

GCC North Africa

Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. Levant: Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria. Others : Irak and Yemen (unavailable data for Djibouti) Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat

48%

18%

18%

16%

Share of Intra-MENA import in 2009

Levant Yemen and Irak

INTRA-MENA FOREIGN

DIRECT INVESTMENTS

Section 2

5

Intra -MENA FDI represents non negligeable share of

the total amount of FDI in MENA Region

6

Data sources : The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation 2010

Intra-MENA FDI in percentage of total FDI from the World To MENA

27,7%

21,0%

73,1%

20,6%

24,3%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

80,0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Am

ou

nt

of

FDI i

nw

ard

in m

illio

n U

SD

Irregular growth of intra-MENA FDI

7

Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen. Data sources: The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation 2010

1 402,80 5 300,70

34 808,49

14 500,24

30 563,38

19 247,60

0,00

5 000,00

10 000,00

15 000,00

20 000,00

25 000,00

30 000,00

35 000,00

40 000,00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Intra-MENA FDI Inflows (FDI Inward)

Amount of FDI inward in million USD

Gulf Countries are the first regional

investors in Mediterranean region

8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

gulf countries 1569 2329 7830 20991 20760 9675 6413

MEd11 1530 300 2200 3000 4700 1100 900

total 3099 2629 10030 23991 25460 10775 7313

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Med11 : Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Israël, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia, Lybia, Turkey Gulf countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. Source : ANIMA-MIPO

Net

am

ou

t in

mill

ion

Eu

ros

The Country Risk Classification Method classifies countries into eight risk categories (0-7),

with 0 being the lowest and 7 being the highest risk category.

But risk classification by OECD ECAs of

MENA countries still high

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Country risk classification for selected MENA countries

OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010

Relative risk classification of MENA

compared to other regions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

OECD MENA South Caucasus and Ukraine

Central Asia

Country risk classification for selected regions

OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010

Good news: KSA and Egypt within

Top 25

11

MENA: Towards enhanced regional trade

and investment frameworks

•Goods: further implementation of GAFTA

principles, namely on NTBs

•Services: ongoing liberalisation negotiations with

EU and within Arab League

•Investment protection: strengthened regional

investment protection frameworks

Regional investment frameworks:

the way forward

• Do participants agree that investment frameworks in the region should be strengthened following the strong increase of intra-regional investment and trade flows?

• What is the opinion of the participants on the options to

strengthen regional investment frameworks? Would participants agree on further analysing the options and their effectiveness? How could countries contribute to the analysis?

• Would participants agree to present the findings of the

analysis to the forthcoming MENA-OECD Steering Group and Ministerial Conference with a view to reach political decision on the way forward?

13

Thank you for your attention!

Alexander Böhmer

Head of Unit

MENA-OECD Investment Programme

OECD Private Sector Development Division

2 rue André-Pascal, 75016 Paris, France

Tel: +33-1 45 24 1912

Fax: +33-1 44 30 6135

Email: alexander.boehmer@oecd.org

For information about the MENA-OECD Programme and its activities, please

refer to: www.oecd.org/mena/investment

MENA is the second region in the world

where Real Estate investors anticipate the

better oportunities

15

2%

8%

9%

7%

7%

23%

44%

Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Performance - By Region 2010

Eastern Europe South America Western Europe

Africa North America Middle East

Asia Pacific

2%

4% 4%

6%

7%

9%

16% 26%

26%

Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Performance - MENA

Oman Bahrain Kuwait

North Africa Levant Qatar

UAE Dubai UAE Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia

Sources: Investor Sentiment Survey-Middle East & North Africa – October 2010- Jones Lang Lassale

Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the best

perceived place for investment

16

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Dubai Abu Dhabi Egypt Oman Bahrain Jordan Lebanon Qatar

Preferred choices for future investment in MENA in 2010

Sources : Investing in a Rebond. The 2010 AT Kearney FDI Confidence Index