Intersects of climate, land use, energy and water in the U.S. as addressed in the National Climate Assessment

CLA’s: Kathy A. Hibbard and Tom Wilson

LA’s: Kristen Averyt, Robert Harriss, Robin Newmark, Steven Rose, Elena Shevliakova and Vincent Tidwell

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A Word (or two) on Carbon

1. Carbon is a currency for energy – from production (e.g., emissions) to consumption (e.g., buildings, land use)

2. Carbon and water are intimately linked

3. Understanding and quantifying carbon cycle dynamics and budgets is needed for appropriate analyses from driving forces to impacts, vulnerability and risk assessment.

For interactions of biogeochemical cycles and climate from the NCA see chapter 15 at: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/

Key Messages

1. Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways. Climate change affects the individual sectors and their interactions; the combination of these factors affects climate vulnerability as well as adaptation and mitigation options for different regions of the country.

2. The dependence of energy systems on land availability and water supplies will influence their development and constrain some options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

3. Jointly considering risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities associated with energy, water, and land use is difficult, but can improve the analysis of options for reducing climate change impacts.

Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways

Wat

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Nutrient Loading

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ack G

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ater

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ater

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Land

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Agriculture

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HydroP

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Generation

Biofuels

& BioPower Fossil &Nuclear

Thermal Power

Generation

From Skaggs and Hibbard, 2012

Climate Variability

And Change

LAND FOR WATER►Water-Capture & Watershed►Ground Cover Vegetation►Hydro-Geology►Ecosystems

LAND FOR ENERGY►Infrastructure▪dams/reservoirs▪mines/wells ▪power plants▪solar & wind farms▪power lines▪pipelines▪railways▪refineries▪biomass feedstock & biofuels production►CCS►Energy Mineral Deposits

WATER FOR LAND ►Forests & Ecosystems►Crop & Animal Agriculture►Mining/Energy Extraction►Industrial, Municipal, Commercial & ResidentialWATER FOR ENERGY ►Extraction►Cooling►Processing►Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)ENERGY FOR LAND►Development ►Transportation ►Economic Productivity►Resource Extraction & ConversionENERGY FOR WATER►Pumping►Transport►Treatment ►Conditioning

Climate, Drought and Energy:Impacts on Individual Sectors and Interactions

In Texas, local gas shale production shut down in 2011 and crop failures continued through 2012

Water Use for Electricity Generation

Macknick et al. 2010

Averyt et al. 2011

Water for Energy: Already Stressed?

Regional Characteristics:Drought, Heat, Energy and LandIn the Northeast, thermo-electric power plants experienced de-ratings in summer of 2012 due to elevated water temperatures exceeding EPA regulations.

Rising river temperatures and power plant de-ratings in 2012.

Regional Characteristics: Land, Energy and Water Competition between energy and food? Utility scale requirements for renewables?

Food before fuel is a state issue

USDA, BIOtechNOW (2012)

Corn in Belleville, IL Bloomberg (2012)

The climate wrench

Renewables and land constraints

SoCal connected (2012) Brightsource & desert tortoise

Regional Characteristics: The PNW - Land, Energy and Water

Climate Impacts: Northwest ▪ Reduced summer stream flows ▪ Reduced forest production ▪ Reduced Salmon production ▪ Coastal erosion

Regional Characteristics: National View - Land, Energy and Water

Climate Impacts: Northeast ▪ Inc. heat waves/reduced air quality ▪ Inc. variability in water resources ▪ Inc. growing season ▪ Inc. threat to native species

Climate Impacts: Southwest

▪ Inc. flooding risk to infrastructure▪ Inc. water stress▪ Inc. vegetation change▪ Reduced forming, tourism and urban growth

Climate Impacts: Great Plains▪ Rural to urban migration▪ Reduced water resources▪ Reduced farming and ranching

Climate Impacts: Midwest

▪ Inc. heat waves/ reduced air quality▪ Storm and sea level induced flooding▪ Reduced agricultural prod.▪ Reduced fisheries and tourism

Climate Impacts: Southeast

▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure▪ Reduced water availability▪ Ecosystem impacts▪ Reduced quality of life

Climate Impacts: Alaska ▪ Thawing permafrost damage oninfrastructure ▪ Decreased soil moisture ▪ Vegetation Change ► Inc. growing season

Climate Impacts: Hawaii ▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure▪ Reduced freshwater availability ▪ Coastal and fisheries ecosystem damage

DRAFT

SUMMARY

There are no silver bullets or simple answers

The intersects of land, energy and water have unique regional characteristics: both with regard to constraints and endowments

Informed decisions regarding tradeoffs and consequences for mitigation and adaption must include integrated frameworks and campaigns (e.g., NGEE, CARVE, ABOVE) that account for:

Decision making criteria

Physical, biological, social, economic and energy system processes

New observations that account for human processes

COMPROMISE

THANK YOU!

NCA chapters are available for public comment until April 12, 2013 from:

http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/

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