international submarine cable development€¦ · carlsbad, ca | washington, dc | exeter, uk |...
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International Submarine Cable Development:
New Infrastructure, New Prices?
Tim Stronge TeleGeography
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• Recent Cable Investment • Planned Builds • Reasons to Construct Cables • Geography of International Connectivity • Future of Capacity Prices
Outline
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Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | www.telegeography.com | [email protected]!
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Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | www.telegeography.com | [email protected]!
AKA
Recent Cable Investment
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Connectivity: 1998 Countries without Fiber-Optic Connectivity (Shaded Red)
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Connectivity: Now Countries without Fiber-Optic Connectivity (Shaded Red)
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The Final Investment Frontier?
Notes: List includes independent countries and semi-autonomous entities that have no access to international submarine fiber-optic networks via direct landings or terrestrial fiber connections through neighboring countries. Countries with an asterisk (*) would be connected by international cables proposed for construction in the next three years.!
Countries without Fiber-Optic Connectivity
Country Population Country (continued) Population Eritrea 4,996,000 Tuvalu 10,000 Guinea-Bissau 1,800,000 * Saint Helena 6,241 Timor Leste 1,000,000 Falkland Islands 2,913 * Solomon Islands 500,000 Norfolk Island 2,302 Western Sahara 400,000 Niue 1,909 * Vanuatu 230,000 Christmas Is. (Indian Ocean) 1,403 * Tonga 102,000 Tokelau 1,400 Kiribati 100,000 Ascension Island 1,270 Palau 21,000 Antarctica 1,000 Cook Islands 19,390 Cocos (Keeling) Islands 600 Wallis and Futuna 15,000 Pitcairn Islands 67 Nauru 13,000 South Georgia 30
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Cable Development Not Balanced Cost of New Cables, 2009-2012 Int’l Bandwidth Usage, 2012
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AKA
Planned Cable Builds
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Proposed Cables
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Proposed Cables that are Funded
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Where’s the Development? • Regions getting the most attention:
– Latin America – Southeast Asia – South Pacific
• Lots of talk about other regions but not much action yet: – Trans-Atlantic – Australia – Trans-Pacific – Northwest Passage/Arctic
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Planned Cables in Latin America Cable Name RFS Landing Countries
GlobeNet Segment 5 (Bermuda-U.S.) Q1 2013 Bermuda, United States
American Movil-1 Q3 2013 Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Mexico, United States
GlobeNet Colombia Express Q4 2013 Colombia, branching unit on existing GlobeNet cable
South Atlantic Cable System (SACS) Q3 2014 Angola, Brazil
Pacific Caribbean Cable System (PCCS) Q3 2014 Aruba, Curacao, Ecuador, Panama, Puerto Rico, United States, U.K. Virgin Islands
WASACE Americas Q3 2014 Brazil, Colombia, Panama, United States
South Atlantic Express (SAEx) Q4 2014 Brazil, Saint Helena, South Africa
WASACE Africa Q4 2014 Brazil, Nigeria
Seabras-1 Q1 2015 Brazil, United States
SACS Segment 2 (United States) n.a. Brazil, Colombia, United States
SACS Segment 4 (Uruguay) n.a. Brazil, Uruguay
SACS Segment 5 (Europe) n.a. Brazil, Canary Islands
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Planned Cables: AM-1
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Planned Cables: PCCS
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Planned Cables: Seabras
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Planned Cables: WASACE
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Planned Cables: SACS
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AKA
Reasons to Construct Cables
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Capacity Exhaustion?
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Capacity Exhaustion? (Nope.)
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Bandwidth Demand Growth: Slowing, but Still Strong
Latin American Used International Bandwidth, 2007-12
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End-users Drive Internet Traffic LatAm Broadband Subscribers and Average Access Speeds
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Who Reaches these Subscribers?
World Level 3 369.5 TeliaSonera 345.4
Caribbean & Atlantic Verizon Business 0.3 Broadband One 0.3
Central America America Movil 8.2 Verizon Business 5.9
South America Telefonica 14.7 Telecom Italia 10.7
Notes: Data reflect number of broadband subscribers of ISPs reached by single-hop ASN adjacency through upstream Internet backbone providers. Data based exclusively on BGP table analysis and do not reflect actual traffic or IP transit revenues of the upstream providers.
Upstream Provider
Broadband Subscribers Reached (m)
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Limited Competition Transport Tri-opoly to Brazil: • Level 3 (Global Crossing) / Telecom Italia • Telefonica • Globenet (Oi)
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AKA
Geography of International Connectivity
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Connectivity Still Focused on U.S.
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Biggest Roads Lead Northward Top 10 International Internet Routes of Latin America
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AKA
Future of Capacity Prices
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One Reason to Connect to Miami: Prices
GigE Full Port IP Transit Prices,Q4 2012
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Faster Declines in the U.S. Median 10 GigE IP Transit Price Erosion, 2009-2012
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Transport Prices are Still Costly Median 10 Gbps Wavelength Prices, Q4 2012
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IPT vs. Transport Prices Monthly Price per Mbps for 10GigE Port and 10 Gbps Wavelength
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IPT vs. Transport Prices Monthly Price per Mbps for 10GigE Port and 10 Gbps Wavelength
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