international lunar decade declaration

INTERNATIONAL LUNAR DECADE

THE DECLARATION: TYING THE STRANDS TOGETHER

VID BELDAVS

THE NEXT GIANT LEAP: LEVERAGING LUNAR ASSETS FOR SUSTAINABLE PATHWAYS TO SPACE

SOUTH KOHALA – ISLAND OF HAWAII, NOVEMBER 9-‐13, 2014

TOPICS

•  The Moon: stepping stone to the universe

•  Barriers

•  Game changers

•  ImplicaSons

•  Numerous iniSaSves, confluence of forces

•  Need for coordinated global acSon

•  More barriers

•  The internaSonal lunar decade

•  ILD DeclaraSon

•  AcSons to achieve

If God wanted man to become a spacefaring species, he would have given man a moon.

Kra$ Ehrike Lunar Bases and Space Ac5vi5es of the 21st Century (1985)

Stepping stone to the universe

BARRIERS

•  Demand for significant new technology that is very expensive to develop, oaen single use

•  Large scale, highly complex, very large cost

•  Need for strong government involvement

•  MulS-‐year, decadal projects under the influence of short term and local poliScs

•  Lack of public understanding and support

•  Space law requirements for iniSaSves to be internaSonal

•  Lack of internaSonal cooperaSon.

•  NaSonal security threats. New Cold War.

•  The Wolf Amendment

Some real, some imagined

GAME CHANGERS

•  Lunar / cislunar infrastructure

•  Cuts costs, simplifies, increases commercial potenSal

•  Increases demand. More flights. More space services

•  ISRU – asteroid and lunar

•  Avoidance of launch costs, increased commercial potenSal

•  Reusability of launch vehicles

•  Frequency of flights

•  DramaSc reducSon in size and cost of equipment, higher performance cubesats, nanosats, lunar cubes, more and more research and commercial uses and users

•  3D prinSng in space from ISRU

Paradigm change

IMPLICATIONS

•  PotenSal to eliminate short term and local poliScal dominaSon of space project decision-‐making

•  What should be the government role in space?

•  Redefined role for NASA

•  Need for a way to encourage and fund commercial development of space

•  COMSAT was formed in 1962 when communicaSons satellite opportuniSes became clear.

•  Commercial opportuniSes beyond Earth orbit are now thinkable

•  Is it Sme to form a COMSAT type of business to facilitate commercial development beyond GEO?

Paradigm change

TRENDS ARE CLEAR, BUT…THE OBVIOUS AND RATIONAL ARE NOT DESTINED TO HAPPEN

•  More technical failures could kill any of the promising commercial ventures

•  Congress could kill Commercial Crew

•  The Wolf Ammendment is not dead. The new Congress may make internaSonal collaboraSon even more difficult

•  NaSonal security concerns, wars, could preempt internaSonal collaboraSon

•  Numerous other risks

THE SPACE COMMUNITY IS IN FERMENT

•  NASA

•  NSS

•  Planetary Society

•  IAA

•  ESA

•  InternaSonal Space ExploraSon CoordinaSon Group

•  InternaSonal Industrial Group

•  Flexure Engineering / Goddard -‐ InternaSonal Lunar Geophysical Year

•  Google X-‐prize

•  China

•  Russia

•  India

Numerous ini5a5ves Confluence of forces

THREE INITIATIVES

•  Partnership with China in the peaceful use of outer space

•  Replace the Wolf Amendment with policy that builds produc5ve rela5ons with China and protects na5onal security interests.

•  InternaSonal Lunar Decade

•  PresidenSal Commission on Commercial Development beyond Earth Orbit

PARTNERSHIP WITH CHINA

•  Replace the Wolf Amendment with policy that builds produc5ve rela5ons with China and protects na5onal security interests.

•  Invite China to join with the US to launch the Interna5onal Lunar Decade involving ESA, JAX, India, Russia and all other na5ons involved in space development

Secretary of State John Kerry: «We are commiQed to avoiding the trap of strategic rivalry with China»

PRESIDENTIAL COMMISSION ON COMMERCIAL SPACE DEVELOPMENT

•  Study the long term opportuniSes facing the NaSon in the development of the Moon, asteroids and other celesSal bodies as well as domesSc and internaSonal challenges and risks involved in such an endeavor. Such an effort would examine alternaSves to the present NASA and government centered approach to space development.

•  Could result in a CorporaSon for Lunar Development


•  Establish a program that brings space-‐faring naSons of the Earth together in a common effort to understand the resources and economic opportuniSes presented beyond Earth orbit. The ILD would focus parScularly on the Moon and the space between Earth orbit and the Moon where infrastructure such as fuel depots, energy systems and telecommunicaSons hubs can enable exploraSon and further development with increased safety and lower risk and cost.

ELEMENTS OF ILD

•  Long term program to understand the Moon and make preparaSon for the use of the Moon and the lunar orbit and cislunar space for research and for commercial acSviSes

•  Examine regional development and innovaSon schemes that may be models for the development of research parks and other faciliSes on the Moon

•  GeodeSc map of the Moon suitable for the definiSon of mining sites and other faciliSes as well as permilng processes for commercial operaSon including the potenSal of lomeries or compeSSve bidding

•  Establishment of processes for enabling commercial operaSons in specific sites on the Moon

•  Study the potenSal for uSlity services including energy and consumable supplies for faciliSes on the Moon

•  Establishment of standards for communicaSons, coupling, linkage, safety and rescue and other mamers needed for operaSons on the Moon including human presence

•  Establish the rules for the operaSon of fuel depots and other faciliSes in space for the use of spacecraa from all parScipaSng naSons

A decade long process preparing the knowledge base and the policies and pracSces that can enable rapid and sustainable development of the Moon and cislunar infrastructure

THE NEXT GIANT LEAP: Leveraging Lunar Assets for Sustainable Pathways to Space DeclaraBon of the Conference November 9-‐13, 2013, South Kohala – Island Of Hawaii “If God wanted man to become a spacefaring species, he would have given man a moon.” Kra$ Ehrike Lunar Bases and Space Ac5vi5es of the 21st Century (1985) We have gathered to discuss technical, economic and policy choices available to the United States as the preeminent leader in space development to move the NaSon and the world forward on a sustainable path to the development of an infrastructure in cislunar space and on the Moon to enable more to be done for less and faster, both in space science and exploraSon as well as in commercial development parScularly beyond Earth orbit.

These are our shared understandings: Space is an opportunity beyond measure whose full realizaSon requires a long-‐range view and implementaSon strategies and plans that are not subject to short term poliScal pressures. Space cannot be developed by the United States or any other naSon in isolaSon but rather requires collaboraSon among naSons at mulSple levels to be successful. It is parScularly important that no naSon be excluded from the peaceful development of space. China stands out as important due to its significant progress in space and its potenSal contribuSon to the development of shared infrastructure in space. Space technologies are rapidly advancing that offer higher performance at lower cost opening opportuniSes for many more naSons, research organizaSons and commercial businesses. A body of space law has been developed that does not provide sufficient clarity for the planning and execuSon of permanent research faciliSes or commercial projects on the Moon. A clear internaSonal regime needs to be developed that is compliant with established space law and that meets the requirements of those seeking to develop permanent research faciliSes or commercial projects on the Moon.

We therefore recommend that the United States play a leadership role in launching the InternaSonal Lunar Decade before the 50th anniversary of the InternaSonal Geophysical Year in 2017 to accomplish the following: Research the Moon in depth to idenSfy the locaSons of resources and sites where permanent research and commercial faciliSes can be sited including a complete geodeSc map of the Moon’s surface that can be used to allocate territory for commercial and research use. Develop a long range plan for the development of infrastructure on the Moon and in cislunar space idenSfying specific locaSons for telecommunicaSons hubs, energy systems and transmission infrastructure to support space exploraSon beyond the Earth-‐Moon system as well as for the development of research faciliSes and commercial operaSons on the Moon. Develop the standards for idenSficaSon, communicaSons, docking and landing, astronaut rescue, and related mamers that is required for long term development of research and commercial faciliSes in space, on the Moon and other celesSal bodies. Develop an internaSonal regime that is compliant with internaSonal space law for the development of the infrastructure in cislunar space and for the development of permanent research and commercial faciliSes on the Moon.

We resolve to campaign for the InternaSonal Lunar Decade (ILD) to be realized no later than the 50th anniversary of the InternaSonal Geophysical Year in 2017 undertaking the following acSons: Involve exisSng organizaSons to address specific issue areas involved in ILD including InternaSonal Space ExploraSon CoordinaSon Group, InternaSonal Industrial Group, NSS, IAF, Make ILD prominent in all upcoming conferences of parScipaSng organizaSons starSng with the InternaSonal Space Development Conference organized by the NSS in May, 2015 in Toronto. Establish working groups on issues not specifically addressed by ISECG and other organizaSons placing parScular emphasis on the issue of the internaSonal regime governing development of the Moon. -‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐

Pulling the strands together

-‐ vid.beldavs@fotonika-‐lv.eu

Vid Beldavs FOTONIKA-‐LV associaSon of research insStutes, University of Latvia Riga Latvia Vid.beldavs@fotonika-‐lv.eu

Lunar development roadmap

InternaSonal Lunar Decade

Lunar draS architecture, from lunar seQlement. Workshop, 2014-‐08-‐23

In 2007 when Freedman and Huntress first proposed the InternaSonal Lunar Decade they saw no economic or naSonal security advantage to the Moon. The paradigm was that commercial acSvity extends to GEO. Beyond GEO was the realm of government sponsored research and exploraSon

The ExploraSon paradigm assumed that the goal was incrementally reaching out into space with Mars being the prime objecSve over the next 50 years.

Global cooperaSon was seen as a way to avoid duplicaSon and to lower costs while pooling resources

PARADIGM SHIFT FROM EXPLORATION TO DEVELOPMENT

•  The Moon hasn’t changed since 2007, but we have

•  Smallsat industry is exploding as more and more compuSng, sensing and communicaSng power is packed into smaller, more powerful packages.

•  3D prinSng and nanotechnology are enabling new processing and manufacturing methods that can be linked to roboSc systems to build structures and funcSonal parts from lunar resources

•  Costs of photovoltaic systems have dropped dramaScally. Lessons learned can be applied to PV manufacturing on the Moon.

•  Asteroid mining is being developed with serious business models

•  10 person lunar habitats have been conceived that could be constructed for under $5 billion

ISRU CHANGES THE ECONOMICS OF DOING THINGS IN SPACE •  Eliminate terrestrial producSon costs

•  Eliminate launch costs from Earth

•  Utilize solar energy

•  PV arrays from ISRU

•  Microwave or laser transmission

•  Solar furnace for larger scale producSon

•  Benefits of vacuum processing

•  3D prinSng

•  Nanotechnology – atomically precise manufacturing

LOW-‐COST LUNAR ECONOMICS, PART 1 •  Our goal is to create in the near-‐term a self-‐sustaining, 1000-‐person and growing lunar colony supporBng whatever

facets of human acBvity — exploraBon, science, entertainment, tourism, etc. — are worth the cost.

•  Assume a “standard of living” on the Moon comparable to what it is on Earth — private living, open spaces, trees, buTerflies, and squirrels (we'll leave the rats back on Earth)

•  Round trip transportaBon cost by personnel class (this is about a factor of 50 less than current costs, but very workable):

•  — Tourist/visitor (economy class) = 150 kg on the Moon = $300K

•  — Tourist/visitor (deluxe) = 250 kg on the Moon = $500K

•  — Office worker/bureaucrat = 500 kg on the Moon = $1M

•  — ConstrucBon worker/explorer = 1t–2.5t on the Moon = $2M–$5M

•  — Office/construcBon supplies are largely one way

•  Assume stays for workers range from 1 to 5 years, with a mean stay of 3 years. This implies an addiBonal $10K to $30K per month per worker for transportaBon.

•  — Implies labor costs on the Moon 2 to 5 Bmes US labor costs

•  — Because of the high labor rates, many people will hold mulBple jobs

•  To be economically self-‐sustaining, we have to create a lunar colony with labor rates on the Moon 2 to 5 Bmes those In the US.

•  |To start, we’ll assume an average labor rate of $150,000/year. Copyright 2014 Microcosm, Inc. The Moon Rocks pg 4 conference October 4, 2014

Copyright 2014 Microcosm, Inc. The Moon Rocks pg 7

THE INCOME SIDE: WHAT IS THERE TO DO ON THE MOON? • Tourism — hotels, tours, events, marketing (major income generation) • Entertainment — professional sports and gymnastics, Lunar Olympics, TV (“Dancing Among the Stars”), educational TV (multi-lingual and multi-cultural), advertising and marketing (major income generation) • Mining — materials for lunar consumption, gemstones, minerals – 3He — a major source of clean nuclear energy available in the lunar regolith • Sciences — astronomy, geology, biology, physics, chemistry • 4 Diplomats/Representatives from 50 countries with more than 15 million people (population of the Netherlands or Texas) = 200 people • Engineering and Technology — materials, low-gravity construction, spacecraft design from lunar materials, launch and propulsion technologies; ultra-high and ultra-low temperature environments • Exploration — scientific and commercial • Transportation — on the Moon, Earth-Moon, asteroids and comets; people and freight • Education — Real-time discussion of life on the Moon — broadcast in essentially every language to every culture around the world • Manufacturing for export — structural components for space stations, satellites, and space vehicles; low-g and 0-g (in low lunar orbit) manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors; vacuum and low pressure manufacturing Red = generates outside income Green = predominantly internal spending

PERVASIVE SUPERCOMPUTING

•  CompuSng architectures have been announced that offer supercompuSng capabiliSes through constellaSons of satellites orbiSng in space. Microgravity, vacuum, abundant cheap solar energy and cooling in the depths of space promise ultra-‐low cost processing of big data.

•  ConnectX – www.connectx.com big data processing capabiliSes in orbit

•  Server Sky -‐ www.server-‐sky.com constellaSons of servers in orbit

•  Availability of pervasive supercompuSng holds the promise of cogniSve support to accelerate lunar development.

•  Materials processing alternaSves can be examined interacSvely while specific opSons are tried.

•  Work can proceed in parallel on mulSple tracks with all players kept up-‐to-‐date on what affects their acSvity through the cogniSve planning system.

MORE STUFF TO DO ON THE MOON

• Manufacturing for internal consumption — construction materials (metals, concrete, glass), building supplies (simple stuff — windows, walls, furniture, household products) • Construction — building and maintaining new facilities for the Moon and space, roads, power lines, air lines • Utilities — power, water, air • Infrastructure — police, fire, medical, rescue, government and administrative • Food — farming, markets, restaurants • Environmental science and engineering — preservation of the lunar environment, monitoring and maintenance of the life-support environment, monitoring the solar terrestrial environment • New and used sales, rentals, and trades — if somebody brings it, sell it on the Moon • Maintenance and repair — applicable to nearly all products—everything on the Moon gets repaired, reused, or recycled The major generators of outside income for the community are: tourism, entertainment and sports, science, solar system exploration, diplomacy and education, and probably mining and exploration. Copyright 2014 Microcosm, Inc. The Moon Rocks pg 8

CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPING THE MOON

•  Moon Treaty requirements which by reference includes the UN Charter, the Outer Space Treaty and other accords.

•  Large upfront costs

•  Results of investment must be shared with all mankind, parScularly developing countries

LUNAR DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

•  Purpose: Develop and implement the internaSonal regime for development of the Moon.

Space for all!

CAMPAIGN TO RATIFY THE MOON TREATY

•  Target compleSon by 2016

•  Goal – enough ParSes that the Treaty cannot be ignored and work can start on the internaSonal regime to develop the Moon.

•  The African Union develop a space leadership strategy that includes AUC encouragement of member states to raSfy

•  The African Union involve celebreSes that have supported Africa to campaign for African space leadership and the raSficaSon of the Moon Treaty

•  STSG encourage governments where it does business to raSfy

•  If all AU member states raSfied the Treaty Africa would have 55 ParSes to the Treaty compared to the current 16.

•  Morocco is already a raSfying state

INTERNATIONAL REGIME

•  How to develop and use a resource shared among mulSple parSes

•  Examples of internaSonal regimes:

•  AntarcSca

•  InternaSonal Space StaSon

•  Governance of the geosynchronous orbit

CAN’T OWN IT, BUT BILLIONS AND BILLIONS MUST BE INVESTED…

1.  The moon and its natural resources are the common heritage of mankind, which finds its expression in the provisions of this Agreement, in parScular in paragraph 5 of this arScle.

2.  The moon is not subject to naSonal appropriaSon by any claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupaSon, or by any other means.

3.  Neither the surface nor the subsurface of the moon, nor any part thereof or natural resources in place, shall become property of any State, internaSonal intergovernmental or non-‐ governmental organizaSon, naSonal organizaSon or non-‐governmental enSty or of any natural person. The placement of personnel, space vehicles, equipment, faciliSes, staSons and installaSons on or below the surface of the moon, including structures connected with its surface or subsurface, shall not create a right of ownership over the surface or the subsurface of the moon or any areas thereof. The foregoing provisions are without prejudice to the internaSonal regime referred to in paragraph 5 of this arScle.

PHASES OF LDC DEVELOPMENT •  Conference in Africa convened by the Secretary General and organized by the African Union

Commission

•  Exploratory phase – «The InternaSonal Lunar Decade»

•  ExploraSon of the Moon from the point of view of developing it

•  Conferences, informaSon sharing, open networking model

•  Development of lunar business incubators and technology transfer centers(mulSple faciliSes, operate in various countries, open networking model)

•  Development of first Moon base by LDC

•  MaturaSon phase – LDC charters research, tourisSc, mining, manufacturing enSSes to operate in various locaSons on the Moon

LDC DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

•  Develop framework and strategy for LDC operaSon and its financing prior to projects on the Moon that involve exploitaSon of lunar resources

•  ParSes to the Moon Treaty designate representaSves to the Governing Council. Advice can be sought from all applicable sources.

•  The Governing Council selects a Managment Board that selects a Chairman of the Board. The Management Board selects a Chief ExecuSve Officer whose job is to guide the development of the internaSonal regime, LDC operaSons and the financing of operaSons.

•  of LDC secretariat develops proposals, representaSves of ParSes meet periodically either electronically or physically to approve or modify.

•  InternaSonal Lunar Decade – exploraSon, development of models for collaboraSon among space programs and between various actors including business, academia, naSonal space programs and various public organizaSons.

DRIVE INNOVATION AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT

•  Share similariSes with US DARPA that led to Internet and other innovaSons.

•  Use roadmap process to define technical challenges

•  Invite innovators to propose soluSons

•  Include opportunity to use investment funds that could offer innovators the opportunity to develop operaSons on the Moon within the internaSonal regime plus financing

BOLD INITIATIVES THAT INSPIRE THE POPULAR IMAGINATION

Moon development roadmap – to involve people around the globe.

Crowd funding iniSaSves –

Lunar microlab, lunar habitat design compeSSons, Lunar micro impactors – thousands, each reporSng what they find in different locaSons on the Moon

CelebriSes –

George Clooney, Angelina Jolie, John Cameron, Branson

Lunar business incubators – many.

LDC PRINCIPLES

•  Not a UN bureaucracy

•  Economic development organizaSon combining investment from governments and the private sector to accelerate human development of space

•  Agile and adapSve to condiSons that will be encountered on the Moon and in space.

•  SSmulate innovaSon, rapid technology development, mulSple opSons, opSmal bureaucracy, with a parScular emphasis on involving small business

•  Encourage risk taking with adequate financial rewards while meeSng Treaty obligaSons towards the Earth, parScularly developing countries

•  Generate revenue from incepSon

Near term 2015-‐2025 space node services Source: OASIS Final Report

PotenSal services for medium term: 2025-‐2045 Source – OASIS project final report

Space node services long term 2045 -‐beyond Source – OASIS project final report

PotenSal Moon InstallaSon Related Services in the Medium-‐Term (2025–45) Source: OASIS

Summary of OASIS idenSfied spaceport nodes

Lunar Strategic Knowledge Gaps – 1 Source – M. Wargo, Strategic Knowledge Gaps: Enabling Safe, Effec5ve, and Efficient Human Explora5on of the Solar System, June 2013

Key SupporSng ObjecSves Space agencies parScipaSng in ISECG have defined a long-‐range human exploraSon strategy that begins with the ISS and expands human presence into the solar system, leading to human missions to explore the surface of Mars. UnquesSonably, sending humans to Mars in a sustainable way over Sme will be the most challenging and rewarding objecSve of human space exploraSon in the foreseeable future. These missions will require new technologies and significant advances in the capabiliSes we have today. Source – IECG Global ExploraSon Roadmap, 2013

3. Humans to the Lunar Surface – missions to the lunar surface providing opportuniSes to address priority lunar exploraSon objecSves benefiSng from human presence on the surface and advancing habitaSon, mobility and other planetary exploraSon capabiliSes. This mission theme addresses one of the exploraSon desSnaSons. Many agencies consider human missions to the lunar surface as an essenSal step in preparaSon for human Mars missions. Lunar missions are favored by agencies who view the Moon as the next step for human planetary exploraSon and NASA may contribute to such missions. Lunar missions have been studied individually and collecSvely, for several years. It is important to enable beyond-‐low-‐Earth orbit missions while sBll operaBng and uBlizing the ISS. Avoiding a gap between ISS and beyond-‐low-‐Earth orbit missions preserves the capabiliSes and experSse needed, as well as leveraging the ISS partnership for implemenSng future missions. ConSnued access to the ISS also enables exploraSon preparaSon acSviSes, such as technology demonstraSon, human health and performance risk miSgaSon, and operaSons simulaSons to conSnue. -‐ ISECG GER 2013

-‐ vid.beldavs@fotonika-‐lv.eu

Vid Beldavs FOTONIKA-‐LV associaSon of research insStutes, University of Latvia Riga Latvia Vid.beldavs@fotonika-‐lv.eu