international lp gas seminar 20141. turkey 3.6 mil 2. poland 2.6 mil 3. russia 2.5 mil 4. korea 2.4...
TRANSCRIPT
International LP Gas Seminar 2014
Jason Chang
March 6 2014
Tokyo, Japan
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Demand & Supply of LPG
III. Threats & Opportunities
IV. Conclusion
LPG Consumption in Korean Energy Market
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
Coal (15.4%)
Oil (44.7%)
LPG (4.4%)
LNG (12%)
Electricity (19.4%)
New Gen.Energy (3.8%)0
10
20
30
45
65
1993 20121998 2005
…
(%)
(Year)
2012(B)
4.4%
1993(A)
4.9%
(B)-(A)
0.5%
DEMAND SUPPLY
Demand(1994-2013)
1994
3,389
Unit: 1,000MT
Propane
2013
3,031(11%↓)
1,976Butane 5,112(259%↑)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
2001, Butane > Propane
(Year)
(1,000MT)
ButanePropane
’12 ’13 Demand 2% ↓
Demand (Propane 1994-2013)
(Unit: 1,000 MT)
Commercial
City Gas
Indus + Petchem
1994
2,140
820
429
2013
1,324 (39%↓)
204 (75%↓)
1,503 (350%↑)
Highest (Year)
2,351 (‘01)
1,025 (‘95)
1,753 (’10)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
(Year)
(1,000MT)
Commercial
Industrial+ Petchem
City Gas
Demand (Butane 1994-2013)
But Last 3 YearsAutogas: 11%↓
PetroChem: 14%↑
1994Unit: 1,000MT
Autogas
Petrochem (Industry)
%2013
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
1,400
576
285%↑3,987
20%↓1,125
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Autogas
‘94 ~ ‘96Disabled People
7-passenger VehicleTrucks under 1 ton
’94~’96
Petrochem
(Year)
(1,000MT)
DEMAND SUPPLY
Supply (1994-2013)
(Unit: 1,000 MT)
Production
1994
1,390
2013
2,707
Import 4,044 5,705
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
‘94 ’13by 141%↑
‘94 ’13by 195%↑
Import
Production
(Year)
(1,000MT)
Propane Supply(1994-2013)
(1,000MT)
Import
Production
1994
3,065(88%)
404(12%)
2013
2,599(72%)
978(28%)
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
(1,000MT)
(Year)
Import
Production
2013 Imports
(2,599 KMT)
Asia 5%
Africa 4%
America 3%
Middle East 88%
Butane Supply(1994-2013)
(1,000MT)
Import
Production
1994
978(49%)
986(51%)
2013
3,106(64%)
1,729(36%)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
(1,000MT)
(Year)
Import
Production2013
Imports(3,106 KMT)
Asia 14% America 1%
Africa 3%
Middle East 83%
THREATSOPPORTUNITIES
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
96
07
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
No. of LPG Cars1. Turkey 3.6 Mil2. Poland 2.6 Mil3. Russia 2.5 Mil
4. Korea 2.4 Mil5. India 1.9 Mil
Old LPG Cars Scrapped
No Mid Size LPG Cars
CNG Taxi / CNG Stations
Diesel Taxi from 2015
Auto Gas Price
‘13 ¥ 1,071/L
‘10 ¥ 973/L
‘07 ¥ 774/L
Threats - Auto Market (Butane)
2,4462,415 2,3922,445
※ Sources: Korea national Oil Corporation (KNOC)
(1,000 Cars)
(Year)
Threats – New PX Projects
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,00013
14
15
16
Production Increase Estimation
(Year)
ETC
2,145
1,096
C41,729
C3978
2,351
1,090
2,301
1,054
(1,000MT)
Threats – New PX Projects
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
13
14
15
16
Import Demand Estimation
C43,106
C32,599
2,857
2,3912,200
2,418
2,023
(Year)
(1,000MT)
2,628
Threats – KOGAS
LNG Kcal standard change
(Year)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
9,500
9,600
9,700
9,800
9,900
10,000
10,100
10,200
10,300
10,400
10,500
10 11 12 13 14 15
0
150
300
450
600
750
900(Kcal)
LPG Consumption
(1,000MT)
306
428477
39 10 10
10,400
10,200
9,800
10,100
Threats – LNG
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,00001
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
LNG vs LPG Households
LNG
LPG
(1,000 households)
(Year)
THREATSOPPORTUNITIES
Opportunities – Propane Market
Transition from Cylinders to..Small Package(Bulk) Tanks
LPG Pipelines in Rural CommunitiesLPG Pipelines in Rural Communities
Opportunities – Butane Market
Pill shape LPG Car Cylinders
Donut shape
LPLi => LPGi Engine( Fuel Efficiency 10~20% increase)
Outdoor Activity
2008 – 2013 Camping Market
571% Increase ↑
Conclusion
Homework ..
3 COMPACT CARS
We need more LPG Car models by car makers .. Only 6 cars to choose from out of 60
2 RVS 1 SUV
More Tax benefits on LPG => Less CO2 = Clean EnergyGovernment Funds and Subsidy to LNG pipeline constructions, but almost none for LPG Pipelines
Price Sensitive
(USD)
(Year)
‘95 avgC3: $177C4: $183
‘13 avgC3: $858C4: $885
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
C3
C4
Thank You
ありがとうございます