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Panatapon Chongprasertying,Kannapon Phakdeesettakun

Center for Alcohol Studies, International Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public

Health Thailand

The density of liquor outlets: Case Study of The British

Columbia, Canada .

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Aim : To investigate the independent effects on liquor sales of an increase in (a) the density of liquor outlets and (b) theproportion of liquor stores in private rather than government ownership in British Columbia between 2003/4 - 2007/8.

Design : The British Columbia Liquor Distribution Branch provided data on litres of ethanol sold through different types of outlets in 89 local health areas of the province by beverage type.

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Statistical analyses : Multi-level regression

models were used to examine the relationship

between per capita alcohol sales and outlet

densities for different types of liquor outlet

after adjusting for potential confounding

social,economic and demographic factors as

well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation.

Setting: Liquor outlets in 89 local health

areas of British Columbia,Canada.-Interior- Northern- Vancouver Coastal- Vancouver Island- Fraser

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Variable name

Dependent : Monthly per capita litres of absolute alcohol from……

- Beers- Coolers- Spirits- Wines- beer, cooler, spirit and wine

otherwise known as‘alcopops’—mixed alcohol and soft drinks with thestrength of between 5% and 10% alcohol by volume

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Independent :1.Monthly number of..…per 10000

population aged 15+- restaurants- government stores- bars- private stores

• Fixed effect2.Season : - January–March - April–June - July–September - October–December

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3. Calendar year as continuous variable : 2003–2008

Ex : -2003/4 mean:1 April 2003 to 31 March 2004 -2007/8 mean:1 April 2007 to 31 March 2008

4. local health areas:89local health - Interior - Northern - Vancouver Coastal - Vancouver Island - Fraser

5. % of population aged 20–29 to population aged 15+ - <14 % - 14 -18 % - >18 %

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6.Sex ratio : % of male versus female aged 15+7. low income : % of low income versus all families8. Population density (residents/km2) - 0.08 – 1.77 - 1.78 – < 37.00 - ≥ 37.00

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• Per capita alcohol sales increased from 8.04 litres in 2003/04 to 8.63 litres in 2007/08

• The number of outlets of all kinds per 10,000 population increased from 19.18 in 2003/04 to 19.41

in 2007/08

Per Capita Alcohol Sales and Density of Liquor Outlets by Region and Time.

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Per Capita Alcohol Sales and Density of Liquor Outlets by Region and Time

• Restaurants and private stores increase• Government liquor stores decreased

• Bars remained unchanged

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Multi-level regression analysisRelationships between alcohol sales and outlet

density

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• Per capita sales of alcohol were associated significantly and positively with changes in monthly number of each kind of

liquor outlet per 10,000 residents.

• The direction of the relationship for government liquor stores was negative when adjustments were made for other

independent variables.

• All types of density measures were associated significantly with changes in per capita alcohol sales :

- Restaurants, bars and private stores were associated significantly and positively.

- Government stores was associated significantly and negatively.

• The density of private stores was associated positively and significantly with per capita sales of beer, coolers, spirits and

wine, while the density of government stores were related significantly negatively to per capita sales of beer, coolers or

spirits, but not wine.

• The density of restaurants per head of population was associated most strongly positively with all varieties of

alcoholic beverage sales.

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• A 10% increase in the density of restaurants results in a 2.33% increase in per capita alcohol sales.

• A similar increase in the density of private stores results in only a 0.28% increase in alcohol sales.

The estimated effect sizes are converted to an estimate of percentage change in per capita alcohol sales for all premises for a 10% increase in the population density of each type of

outlet, for example:

Multi-level regression analysisRelationships between alcohol sales and outlet

density

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Multi-level regression analysisProportion of private versus government stores and

alcohol sales

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• The proportion of stores in private hands was associated significantly with total alcohol sales (P < 0.01)

• Other independent variables which were related positively and significantly to per capita alcohol sales in this model

were:

- Financial year, the percentage of population aged 20–29 years in the local population aged 15 years and older (P =

0.05) and all annual quarters other than January to March (P < 0.0001 in each case).

- The proportion of low-income families in a local area was associated negatively with per capita alcohol sales (P <

0.001).

The multi-level regression analysis shown in Table 6 controlling or socio-economic and demographic variables

found:

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Multi-level regression analysisProportion of private versus government stores and

alcohol sales

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• Between the financial years 2003/04 and 2007/08 the number of private liquor stores rose by 33.4%, while the

number of government liquor stores fell by 9.9%.

• Overall, conclude that there is strong evidence for a connection between the number of liquor outlets overall per

population and per capita alcohol sales:- hypothesis 1 was supported for most varieties of liquor

outlet and beverage types.- hypothesis 2 was supported that private liquor outlets are somehow intrinsically more risky than government liquor

stores, both for total alcohol sales and for sales of beer, wine and spirits, although not coolers.

• This suggests some support for the observation that private stores enable some differentiation of the alcohol market,

putting further upward pressure on alcohol sales.

Discussion

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• The fully adjusted multi-level regression models found significant and positive associations for the number of

restaurants, bars and private stores with total per capita sales of alcohol and also separately for sales of most beverages.

• By contrast, the population density of government stores was associated significantly and negatively with total alcohol sales, as well as sales of beer, coolers and spirits, but not wine and the numbers of restaurants per 10 000 residents

aged 15 and over was associated the most closely with changes in per capita sales of alcohol.

• A 10% increase in numbers of different liquor outlets per 10 000 adult residents was associated with:

- A 2.33% increase in per capita sales of alcohol for restaurants.

- A 0.50% increase for bars.- A 0.28% increase for private stores.

- A 0.22% decrease for government stores.

These changes appear modest, it is important to bear in mind that they are changes in total per capita alcohol sales, not simply changes in sales for that particular type of liquor

outlet.

Discussion

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• Conclude that there was a stimulating effect on alcohol sales introduced by increasing proportions of private stores

over and above the increase in total number of liquor outlets that occurred during the study period.

• It is important to note that population density of liquor stores was less associated with total alcohol sales than was

population density of on premise outlets (bars and restaurants). This is a counter-intuitive finding, as liquor stores contribute a substantially larger proportion of all

alcohol sales than to bars and restaurants.

• This is also consistent with the finding that densities of private alcohol stores are associated significantly positively with changes in per capita alcohol sales, while densities of government alcohol stores are associated significantly and

negatively with per capita alcohol sales. Private outlets, both on- and off-premise, have typically more freedom of

economic response than government monopolies.

Discussion

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• Overall, findings support strongly a relationship between population density of liquor outlets and alcohol

consumption.

• One impact of the policy that has led to gradually increasing partial privatization of liquor stores has been an

increase in the overall number of outlets in many areas. This, in itself, has been associated clearly with increased

per capita alcohol sales

• The analyses presented here show that there was substantial variation across different regions of British

Columbia, both in density of liquor outlets and the population rate of alcohol sales. Further, these analyses

indicate that local variation in population density of liquor outlets is associated strongly with changes in per capita alcohol sales—and that increasing privatization of liquor

stores has further stimulated alcohol sales and consumption.

Discussion

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• As would be expected from international research, any increase in population density of outlets will put upward pressure on per capita alcohol consumption which will, in

turn, usually increase a wide range of serious alcohol-related harms.

• Main finding is that when controlling for liquor outlet density plus spatial, temporal, economic and demographic

characteristics across 89 local health areas, increasing privatization of liquor stores in British Columbia in recent years has been associated significantly with increasing

alcohol sales per head of population with probable adverse effects on public health.

• Thus, a fully privatized system might be expected to increase total alcohol consumption still further, along with

adverse alcohol-related consequences.

Discussion

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• Tim Stockwell and other. “Changes in per capita alcohol sales during the partial privatization of British Columbia’s retail alcohol monopoly 2003–2008: a multi-level local area analysis”. Addiction, 104, 1827–1836.

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