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  • 7/28/2019 International Enviornment Exam Grid.all Countries Done

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    Factor Detail

    Details Rating

    Economic Headline

    Economy is based on 1) exports and 2) FDI. 2001 WTO

    accession catalyzed 3 major reforms - facilitating foreign

    enterprise, promoting free trade, and improving legal

    transparency and predictablity (see write up, p1)- whichspurred strong growth; now 2nd largest economy after US

    PosHigh growth: Forecas

    2030

    GDP Size, breakdown by segment $7.2T (2nd largest, after US) Growth Rate highest in the

    world: 8-9% prior to WTO accession, 10-11% after)Pos

    2002: $504B, 2011: $

    consumption: 60%, H

    Labor productivityAnnual growth rate

    (GDP/ppp)

    Highest growth rate in world (1995-2005 average 8.43%

    annual growth (US: 2.8%)); spurred by migration from rural

    to urban areas, FDI brought new technologies and

    management practices, massive infrastructure

    investments, increased access to international markets

    incentivized entreprenuership and investment

    PosLow growth rate, ham

    workforce (1995-200

    Leading industriesGeneral manufactoring (44% of GDP); technology

    manufactoring, construction, powerPos

    Primarily agricultural

    industries; airplanes,

    and telecom equipme

    them back to commo

    Fiscal policyBudget: balanced, surplus,

    deficit?2011: deficit (1.1% of GDP) Nuetral

    With permanent bud

    debt almost 60% of G

    borrow domestically,

    Exchange rate

    controls

    Rate? Float freely or

    manage?

    Fixed to the dollar; large FDI triggered by WTO accession

    caused exchange rate to soar; as a result, government

    established the China Investment Group ($200B) to invest

    in foreign equities. (High rate improved their purchasing

    power of foreign assets; however, puts a drag on their

    export-based economy

    (Mostly) Pos

    Late 1990s: Asian cris

    Led to 33% crash of B

    reserves due to fixed

    It remains high, whic

    Inflation rate (rate, how

    control?)General ly well-controlled inflation rate (3.3% in 2011) Pos

    History of high inflati

    and continued for ma

    Interst rates Generally well-controlled interest rate (6.2% in 2011) Pos Rose interest rates ("

    Trade policyTarffs, quotas, and other

    restrictive agreements

    Promoted export focused economy. WTO reforms

    brought about 27% and 24% annual growth in exports and

    imports, respectively. Trade surplus grew to $360B by

    2010 - China ran a trade deficit with Asian countries but

    large surpluses with EU, Japan and US

    Pos

    Historically (as of 196

    dramtically reduced t

    international players

    for international trad

    round, US cotton disp

    Nationalization v.s

    privatization

    Strong state ownership of businesses (Sharp decline over

    years to 48% in 2002)Mixed Strong state ownersh

    Due to WTO acession: Strong reliance on FDI (FDI exploded

    Monetary Policy

    Ratings = Postive (+), Negative (-), Mix, NuetralCountry Comparison

    China

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    SubsidiesGovernment subsidize? If so,

    what?

    Strong govt subsidies, mostly in SEZs - been highly

    effective in attracting business investmentPos

    High industry subsidie

    owned companiess, w

    Economic

    regulation

    As viewed through recent

    global financial crisis

    2008: Caused value of Chinese exports and imports to

    reverse which shrank ecoomy from 25% growth to -1.65%.

    Swift govt intervention was very successful: central bank

    cut interest rates, halted currency appreciation, increased

    export tax rebate on labor-intensive goods to supportexports. Also invested larger stimulus package than US

    and EU, resulting in expanded consumer spending, rapid

    investment growth, strengthened agriculture, and by 2009

    GDP grew by 8.7%.

    Pos

    While policies enacte

    aggregate demand, t

    questionable. Jorge G

    Gerdau, explained: L

    consumption and get

    with our level of savin

    problem is cultural; w

    themselves out, [but]

    years. We do not hav

    2010, Armnio Fraga,

    warned, Brazils infra

    saving and investing e

    Natural resources Abundance

    Limited abundance - requires signficant importing,

    particularly from Brazil, to fuel its export-led growth

    strategy and growth in domestic consumption

    Neg Strong abundance an

    Relationshp with

    international

    institutions

    IMF, WTO, etc WTO accession sparked economic boom PosWTO win againt US co

    leader of LATAM; tryi

    Government One line headline

    High government role in leading growth through

    authoritarain control; quickly adoption capitalist

    fundamentals; been highly effective in driving growth, but

    at high social cost

    Mixed

    High government role

    owned enterprises an

    research.

    Structure Socialist, democratic, etcSingle party authoritarian republic; communist with

    capitalist elements.Neg

    From military regime

    in 1988). Known for

    Protection IP, contracts Extremely weak IP protection, corruption NegWeak IP protection -s

    infringement (particu

    Security Policing, army, etc Low crime rate; largest military in Asia, #3 in world Pos High crime rate, stron

    Backs risk

    Back extraordinary risk (e.g.

    unemployment insurance,retirment pensions, etc)?

    Significant state control assumes risk across several areas,

    though a number of services are limited (e.g. pension,healthcare)

    Mixed

    Backs a variety of ent

    unemployment, retir

    NGOs Role, degree of reliance

    Historically immature sector is now growing, though

    government censorship continues to challenge their

    progress.

    MixedHigh reliance on NGO

    degree of NGO influe

    International

    strategy

    Vying to become #1 global superpower. Working with

    WTO and other global instutions to improve positioning.

    Encouarging high FDI as cornertone of economic

    development (mostlylow cost manufactoring). Investingheavily in: a) oversease assets to secure global supply

    chain due to high resource importation needs and b)

    military to solidify regional and global power

    Pos

    Aggressively position

    developing countriesrelationships with int

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    Institutional One line headlineCovered in other sections. Home ownershiop purchased

    with personal/family savingsDo you think this sect

    How deveoped are its

    institutions?

    Leading areas

    Deficits

    How developed is itsinfrastructure?

    Improving at an accelerated rate due to high investment,

    particularly in SEZs. Rapidly reducing transaction costs forbusiness, though leading to significant envrionment

    challenges. Good ports.

    Pos Weak infrastructure le

    Leading areas Energy (mostly coal), transportation, communications PosPoor all around, thoug

    13B more on infrastru

    Telecom is lagging but

    Deficits Rural, interior infastructure Neg Domestic transportati

    Social One line headline

    Rising middle class, but enormous inequalities remain

    leading to increased tension. Aging population and slow

    population growth (due to one child policy) pose

    signficant challenges

    Mix Rising middle class (30

    GINI Coefficient Baseline: US is .477 High income inequality: .48 Neg High income inequalit

    WorkforceLevel of skill, blue vs. white

    collarLow skilled, still mostly blue collar Neg Low skilled, still mostl

    Consumer basePurchasing power, degree of

    consumerism

    Growing middle and uppper class with strong consumer

    culture in urban areas. High savings rate due to concern

    for future - this will drag consumption

    PosGrowing middle and u

    minimum wage, good

    Social

    strife/conflictReligious, racial, etc

    Strong economic disparity, particulary between rich

    coastal urban and poor rural farming interior. Perceived

    lack of gov't effort to address this leading to significant

    social tension - when will the country "snap"?

    NegStrong economic dispa

    Generous entitlement

    EntitlementsQuality of healthcare,

    education, retirment, etc

    Outdated Hukuo system controlled population movement

    to maintain farming population. Skills, capital and

    education were required to move to leave farming to

    affluent cities. This outdated system is limiting education,

    retirment, housing and healthcare access. Economic

    reforms led to healthcare price inflation, further

    decreasing access and affordability. Govt pensions are

    inadequate, with great disparity between urban and rural.

    Neg

    Poor education; gener

    unsustainable. Infring

    meds (good from a he

    Infrastructure

    Maturation of

    institutions

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    Overall favorability High favorabilty for many businesses High growth potential, but has a num

    Business Risk/Challenges

    Lack of IP protection, unskilled workforce, poor GINI score

    and human rights could lead to social unrest, high state

    involvement (e.g. media restrictions), lack of natural

    resources, limited access to resources in several key areas

    (e.g. business analysis, architecture) (ranked 91/185

    easiest place to start a business)

    Hi cost of capital and interest rates, p

    exports), weak IP protection, regulatio

    cost of business, and lower skilled wo

    of buerocracy and complex tax code:

    starting a new business

    Business

    Opportunities/Strengths

    Signficant incentives for FDI (e.g. SEZs), cheap labor, weak

    regulations (this has an eventual downside), high

    subsidies; strong work ethics of the workforce, well

    organized / highly disciplined organizations, workforce

    desire to succeed (learning and becoming stronger

    professionally rather than pure career move)

    Most interest is based on anticipation

    growing economy (now 10th largest, s

    resources, agriculture, large populatio

    funding and other incentives all pluse

    industrial sector in Americas, and clos

    one of their leading industries (see ab

    China

    Learnings: What does each country teach us?

    Worth Doing Business?

    Open your markets: Key to catalyzing strong GDP growth can be to focus on an export economy and foreign investment

    Avoid foreign debt

    If lacking domestic innovation, import it through FDI

    Trade offs: Policies enabling strong economic growth can come at a social cost, which can backfire. Chinas policies are sending

    contrast, Brazil makes heavy social investments but at a high economic cost (note: interestingly, Brazil nonetheless has a higher G

    If lacking natural resources, build strong trade relations and purchase foreign assets (e.g. oil production capacity in middle east)

    Responded well to global recession

    Send clear signals to market regarding intention on economic policy

    Future growth will hinge in part on to important factors: (1) labor investments - they have done well with minimal investment

    cheap labor) so investors have largely overlooked this; however, labor costs will rise as their economy matures, thus making IP pro

    Despite rapid growth, Brazil was the underperformer of the BRICs in many areas. It ranked among the most challenging countries

    to start companies, and labor laws made it costly for companies to hire or fire workers (see Exhibit 7). Global analysts suggested th

    rates, and cumbersome red tape. High interest rates and barriers to borrowing blocked market entry for entrepreneurial Brazilian

    funding.

    Economy:

    History of economic boom and bust, hampered by high foreign debt and inflation. Lesson: reforms of 90's (Plano Real) generate

    International

    Build international coalitions, particularly among equal or lesser countries - position yourself as their leader on global stage.

    Leverage international agreement policies to gain advantage (WTO, cotton dispute)

    Careful not to align with "wrong countries" (Iran) - could hurt relationship with stakeholder countries

    Need to improve workforce and infrastructure

    Related thought: government is trying to create more sophisticated (e.g. high tech) industries and does this through a great dea

    Labor productivity is a leading indicator of long-term country stability/growth, and this figure is closely tied to infrastructure.

    Social:

    Invest in your people (e.g. healthcare, retirement), even if fails to meet full scope of need. It sends the right signal and helps mi

    Democracy ensures public voice in politics.

    Government:

    Watch out for government corruption and bureaucracy it will impede business growth and investment

    What do we want to say about business incentives? They have some generous incentives, but overall cost of business is still high

    Need to mind you overall ease of starting a business score build policy around this.

    Brazil

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    Spain

    Japan

    Spains banking problems lie with the regional banks (the cajas) that lent all the money to property developers to fuel the boom times.

    In theory, the cajas sound good they are small, local and focus entirely on retail and commercial banking, lending to local businesses.

    Almost all of these banks were controlled or influenced by one of Spains local governments. The politicians in power would have voting

    There were about fifty cajas now reduced to ten. It is now becoming clear that the local developers were in cahoots with the local po

    2008-5th largest economy in the world

    Population 46 million

    GDP: 5% agriculture, 29% industry and 67% services, tourism (2nd highest in the world) 10.7% and construction 11%

    Trade: 61% imports and 72% exports

    Democracy (since 1978), governed by parliamentary system under a constitutional monarchy

    Decentralized- autonomous communities had their own elected parliament/government

    Universal healthcare GIni coefficient 34.7%

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    How Countries Compete: Strategy, Structure, and Context

    Introduction

    1. Ten Strategies

    Category Types of Strategy Description

    Fiscal policy The governments budgetary stance: surplus, deficit, balanced. Managed through spending and taxation policie

    Monetary policyControls supply of money via interest rates, open market operations, and reserves to ensure healthy economic

    foreign exchange.

    Control exchange ratesSome countries allow their currency to float freely (open market) while others fix the price or manage their app

    manage their currencies instead control flow of capital in and out of the country (capital accounts)

    Income policy Direct control over wages and prices: rarely used and rarely effective. Used primarily in emergencies inflationa

    Trade policy Use of tariffs, quotas, and other restrictive agreements. Most common microeconomic policy.

    Restriction or promotion

    of federal direct

    investment (FDI)

    Designed to protect domestic firms from foreign ownership or from foreign competition. Historically, countries

    foreign direct investment. Today, most countries have significantly lowered the barriers to FDI, following the su

    many countries eagerly encourage FDI by offering tax remissions and creating industrial parks or business cluste

    Nationalization and

    privatization

    Mirror policies deployed by countries wishing to affect the ownership of firms. Historically, often include utilitie

    trend has been to privatize.

    Economic regulation

    Economic regulation, which is usually implemented to correct some perceived economic flaw (such as a natural

    a major impact on development. Has been applied to many vital industries: transportation, energy; telecommun

    can amount to 25% of an economy and have large affects on infrastructure).

    Competitive policyLarge affects on national output. Can range from strong antitrust provisions designed to encourage competition

    pricing, as in Japan before the 1970s.

    Provision of subsidy

    There is a wide range of subsidies, varying from direct grants, to tax reimbursements to help with inputs (e.g. la

    defense contracting and government purchasing. When such policies are coordinated with a broad developmen

    policy.

    Every country has a (1) strategy for economic development. It may be explicit or it may be implicit-a loose collection of goals and policies that merely appears as s

    enough. Countries must have an (2) organizational structure that can effectively implement their strategy. A mismatch between strategy and structure invariably

    strategy and structure must fit each country's (3) context - the national and international conditions in which the country operates. In business, context would be

    level of corruption, natural resources, education, income distribution, and international security are key among these contextual factors.

    Macroeconomic

    Strategies

    Microeconomic

    Strategies

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    2. Structures

    Types of Structure

    Political

    Economic

    3. Context

    Developing Resources

    Resource

    Natural

    Human

    Technology

    Abundance varies greatly across countries. Regardless, it must be managed very carefully to avoid excessive environmental damage, waste

    China: Limited arable land to feed large population. If land is deforested, over fertilized, or allowed to erode, it will adversely affect the c

    abundance of coal for energy, but is now suffering from significant air quality issues.

    U.S.: Has one of the largest abundances of resources in the world, particularly fossil fuels. Years of underpricing and overuse have great

    emissions are most inefficient in the world (per capita)

    Saudi Arabia: Abundant oil has fueled a wealthy, powerful monarchy that sustains power by subsidizing critics and opposition groups and

    Wealth is concentrated, resulting in weak GDP growth (1.8%).

    South Africa: Great abundance led to over-reliance on raw material exports

    UK and Singapore: Small islands with minimal resources, they compensate by investing in financial and intellectual resources.

    Both quantity and quality are vital:

    Quantity: Chinas workforce is immense and unskilled, creating downward pressure on wages. In contrast, declining birthrates (e.g. Sing

    keep economy growing.

    Quality is a bigger issue: Countries with highly developed education system (U.S.) leverage this to drive economy (e.g. scientific advances

    Indias economic rise. Aside from formal education, informal education also helps (foreign direct investment by western firms in China has

    Chinese workers).

    Educational institutions, corporate research labs, and patent offices are critical technology drivers (e.g. U.S. and France). Absorbing techno

    is a secondary path (e.g. China).

    Foremost structure to differ across countries: democratic, communist, autocratic, etc. Can be a two party system (U.S., UK) or dozens (Ital

    The more parties, the more difficult to enact broad policy changes. The fewer parties, the more likely to see sharp policy changes with eac

    for long term objectives)

    Description

    At a macro-level, deals with relative weight of consumption, investment, government and trade (in U.S, consumption is 70% of GDP; in Sing

    50%). At a micro-level, economic structure varies sharply with private v. public ownership, concentrated v. fragmented incomes, and manu

    Description

    Institutional

    Includes structure of banking system, court systems, policy and military, and rule of law (particularly property rights). Further, several instifor the country to develop: labor management, savings systems, nature of bureaucracies, separation of power between legislative and exec

    federal government and states. e.g. Singapores Central Provident Fund guaranteed high enough savings to fund domestic investment, m

    has no such system, therefore savings are among lowest in the world.

    To grow, every country must make choices about the use of scarce resources. If economic growth is to occur, these must be increased and must be used efficient

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    No country can accelerate economic growth if consumption and imports absorb all available resources, as there would be no surplus capita

    capital:

    1. Debt from domestic banks: Savings rates vary dramatically across countries.

    For example, Asians are savers (30-40% of GDP): for retirement, as there are no support programs; tax benefits; cultural trends, legal requi

    compulsory 40% down on home mortgages in some countries. Westerns, in contrast, are spenders.

    Therefore, the structure of institutions is crucial. If equity markets are weak (as they were in japan) or nonexistent (as in China), and if capit

    savings flow to domestic banks. With a limited number of banks and nationwide branching, it is possible for government to channel savings

    industries targeted for success.

    2. Domestic equity: The U.S. has long maintained well-developed equity markets with widespread access through investment banks, disco

    Combined with a healthy venture capital market, raising funds through equity has been far easier than in any other country. Domestic equ

    3. Foreign direct investment (FDI): Historically, most comes from and goes to developed countries. Since the early 1980s, FDI has increasing

    countries -especially as they opened domestic ownership to foreigners and privatized. Canada and Singapore are good examples of sourcin

    special economic development zones.

    4. Intentional foreign debt financing: In many developing countries, where living standards are low and capital scarce, public and private d

    its railroads and canals by selling bonds to affluent British savers). Foreign debt reliance first took off after oil shock of 1974: oil price incre

    countries that banked it. The global economic slow down forced countries to borrow heavily from these multi-national banks. This continu

    broke, unable to service their debt. This led to expansion of IMF (International Monetary Fund) to become lender of last resort: they lend

    5. Unintentional foreign borrowing: Some countries (India and Poland) had no intention of borrowing: India aimed for autonomy from the

    finance. But because of the oil shock (in India's case) and asymmetrical trade with the USSR (in Poland's case), both countries began borrow

    payments deficits. The result was the same-debt crisis.

    As a consequence of these continuing problems, foreign debt became a less acceptable way to finance economic growth. Increasingly, cou

    domestic finance and foreign equity were less leveraged, sounder channels to finance economic growth.

    Capital

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    Efficient Usage of Resources

    Source

    Foreign competition

    Domestic competitio

    Competition for FDI

    Administrative allocat

    Role of Government

    Role

    Security

    Creating contracts,

    protecting property

    rights, and enforcing

    laws

    Backing risk

    Managing macro

    economy

    Implementing

    industrial policy

    Many larger countries have competitive markets, but U.S. sets the standard. With almost no state-owned firms and a powerful antitrust tra

    near constant pressure on firms to innovate, minimize costs, reinvest, and pursue competitive advantages.

    Countries that seek foreign capital compete in a world market for POI. Examples:

    Canada: successful in courting U.S. investors, mostly in minerals-related sectors

    NAFTA: Reduced North America trade barriers and amplified U.S. investment in Mexico

    China: best example, via economic and technological development zones

    Deemed to be wasteful, inefficient and corrupt by many western countries, particularly U.S. and U.K. History has shown, globally, that this

    Has worked in a few occasions: government owned 25% of GDP in Singapore across many industries, which led to over 9% GDP growth for

    Description

    Government must provide security-both domestic and international security-so that markets can work. Crime interferes with market trans

    and organized crime controls and distorts whole sectors of commerce.

    Description

    Countries that expose themselves to international competition experience one of two results: either efficient use of resources or failure. E

    Italy: developed a host of craft industries in regional clusters that could not have succeeded without constant pressure of foreign compet

    South Africa: BMW makes vehicles for export here - foreign competition pushed both the firm and the country to be efficient.

    Every country needs a legal system that is trusted by people and institutions, and that works to settle commercial disputes. Where propert

    1990), credit is uncertain, property markets do not function, and investment is damaged. Countries need a system of tax collection that wo

    works. Securities laws that facilitate investment, banking regulations that secure deposits, and legitimate relations between nation states a

    function.

    Government backs risks of all sorts. While markets can handle ordinary risks through insurance systems, government is needed to absorb e

    eighteenth century and environmental regulation, health insurance, regulation of nuclear facilities, unemployment insurance, and retirem

    the sectors that only government, as the sovereign, can effectively back.

    Government manages the macro-economy through fiscal and monetary policy. But even more significantly, ALL governments create, legitim

    occur, and markets cannot work, without a reliable medium of exchange (e.g. managing hyperinflation, bank authority, etc.)

    Affects change via explicit policy and as an implicit result of microeconomic policy. For example:

    Tariffs: to manage trade and regulate foreign investment, externalities, and competition

    Subsidies: to aid particular firms and industries

    These are often effective, but can also produce conflict internally, weaken productivity, and maldistribute income.

    Thought to be crucial in influencing economic development. There are more negative examples than positive ones; however, there are five things all governmen

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    Efficient Usage of Resources

    Efficiency Source

    Domestic

    competition

    Countries that expose themselves to international competition experience one of two results: either efficient use of resources or failure. E

    industries in regional clusters that could not have succeeded without constant pressure of foreign competition; (2) South Africa: BMW mak

    pushed both the firm and the country to be efficient.

    Deemed to be wasteful, inefficient and corrupt by many western countries, particularly U.S. and U.K. History has shown, globally, that this

    Countries that seek foreign capital compete in a world market for POI. Examples: (1) Canada: successful in courting U.S. investors, mostly i

    North America trade barriers and amplified U.S. investment in Mexico; (3) China: best example, via economic and technological developm

    Many larger countries have competitive markets, but U.S. sets the standard. With almost no state-owned firms and a powerful antitrust tr

    near constant pressure on firms to innovate, minimize costs, reinvest, and pursue competitive advantages.

    Foreign competition

    Description

    Administrative

    allocation

    Competition for

    foreign direct

    investment

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    Role of Government

    Role

    Security

    Creating contracts,

    protecting property

    rights, and enforcing

    laws

    Backing risk

    Managing macro

    economy

    Description

    Affects change via explicit policy and as an implicit result of microeconomic policy. For example: (1) Tariffs to manage trade and regulate fo

    and (2) Subsidies to aid particular firms and industries . These are often effective, but can also produce conflict internally, weaken product

    Implements

    industrial policy

    Every country needs a legal system that is trusted by people and institutions, and that works to settle commercial disputes. Where propert

    1990), credit is uncertain, property markets do not function, and investment is damaged. Countries need a system of tax collection that wo

    works. Securities laws that facilitate investment, banking regulations that secure deposits, and legitimate relations between nation states a

    function.

    Government backs risks of all sorts. While markets can handle ordinary risks through insurance systems, government is needed to absorb e

    eighteenth century and environmental regulation, health insurance, regulation of nuclear facilities, unemployment insurance, and retirem

    the sectors that only government, as the sovereign, can effectively back.

    Government manages the macro-economy through fiscal and monetary policy. But even more significantly, ALL governments create, legitim

    occur, and markets cannot work, without a reliable medium of exchange (e.g. managing hyperinflation, bank authority, etc.)

    Government must provide security-both domestic and international security-so that markets can work. Crime interferes with market trans

    and organized crime controls and distorts whole sectors of commerce.

    Thought to be crucial in influencing economic development. There are more negative examples than positive ones; however, there are five things all governmen

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    Short term

    Brazil China Spain Japan

    Brazil China BrazilChina China China

    Spain Brazil China Japan

    Japan Japan Either Japan

    Long Term

    Brazil China Spain Japan

    Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil

    China Brazil TBD China

    Spain Brazil China

    TBD

    (dependingon industry)

    Japan Brazil Japan

    Return on Investment Comparison: Short v. long term across each country

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    Brazil

    16th

    Century Colonized by the Portuguese, exports of lumber, gold, sugar and tob

    1822 Brazil declared freedom, still focus on commodity export

    1888 Abolition of slavery

    1889 Rebellion forming a republican government. Created a coffee cartel1930 Overthrow of republican government by Getulio Vargas. He became dictator.

    Instituted exchange rate controls and import tariffs

    Expanded into mining and oil

    Restrictive labor market policies made it costly for firms to hire/fire

    Still relied on agricultural exports for economy

    1950s Coffee prices dropped and balance-of-payments crisis occurred, stabilizatio

    1955 Juscelino Kubitschek continued state run industrialization

    1960-1964 Inflation of went from 25% in 1960 to more than 100% in 1964

    1964 Military coup, continued the ISI growth strategy but opened it up to direct fore

    1982- disastrous end to Brazilian miracle driven by skyrocketing currency

    1985 collapse of military regime

    Inflationary to Real Growth

    1989 Fernando Collor de Melo elected, Inflation rose to over 1,000%

    1990 1/3 of population below poverty line

    1992 Collor impeached, Fernando Henriques Cardoso introduced Plano Real cre

    1993 inflation peaked at 2,700%

    1994 Cardoso elected on success of Plano Real

    1997/1998 Asian crisis and Russian government default led investors to pullout of

    1999 Cardoso forced by IMF to make the real have a floating (not fixed) exchange

    Brazil under Lula and Dilma

    2002 Lula campaigned as a moderate even though he had a left wing background and wonTrade and Globalization

    During numerous meetings of trade ministers for more than 140 countries Brazil sto

    1995 Joined WTO after lowering tarrifs on imported goods. This helped national fir

    2001 WTO Doha Brazil took a leading role in negotiations with the WTO and was

    2008 Support disappeared for the Doha round as the US (and then global econom

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    cco and then farmed coffee (using slaves from Africa and indigenous people). Exporting of co

    n program driven by IMF implemented.

    ign investment. Reforms called Brazilian miracle created GDP growth averaging more than

    ating high interest rates to restrain inflation

    emerging economies. Brazils tock market dropped 33% and cash reserves fell from $60B to $3

    rate

    the election easily. He came from a poor family, worked in a factory, and climbed the ranks of the metalwo

    od out as a leading voice of emerging markets. Specifically, Lula led the creation of the WTO G

    ms become global and it was driven by efficiency.

    ogged down in disputes over agriculture and Trade Related IP Rights (TRIPS). They were at th

    ) tanked.

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    modities was the focus

    10%. Elimination of political parties

    B due to trying to maintain a fixed exchange rate.

    rkers union. Easily re-elected in 2010 and endorsed Dilma. This endorsement gave her the 2010 election

    -21, a block of developing countries that negotiated collectively at WTO meetings.

    e forefront instead of the US etc. One goal of the Doha round was to minimize agricultural sub

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    as she was behind her competition until then. Her background was different as she was from a middle cla

    idies in the US and other established countries.

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    ss family

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    1970s Japan had recovered from post war devastation and citizen1980s USA had large trade deficits with Japan1990 Japan economy began to suffer with through economic down

    Early 1980s US has large trade deficit with Japan

    1985, the 5 leading industrial countries formed the 1986, Japan dropped the discount rate to combat t 1987, Discount rate hits 2.5% (its lowest post war l 1989, Discount rate was raised to 3.5%, which cau 1996, Urban property values fell 56%. 07/1998 Government announced setting up bridg 1999 The discount rate reached 0.1%2002 The Japanese economy began to pick up2005 The economy was doing well.2006 Short term interest rates rose.2007 Post war baby boomers began to retire2010 Japan comes out of the economic crisis of 202011 GDP then fell by 0.7%.2011, Chinas GDP overtook Japans. China is also2012 The growth forecast was 2%.

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    were living comfortably.

    urn and corruption

    nd West Germany.plaza accord to drive down the dollar.

    e falling growth rate, causing the bubble

    vel)

    ed the Nikkei to drop from an all-time high of 38,915 by 48%. This was almost a value of $4.9

    e banks to help sick banks

    08 with a 4.5% GDP growth in 2010.

    xpected to overtake that of the US in 2027. Indias is expected to match Japans in 2012.

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    rillion in two years.