international energy workshop june 22-24, 2004 the integrted national energy planning in iran a...
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International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
THE INTEGRTED NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING IN IRAN
A PROPOSED ENERGY MASTER PLAN
Alimorad sharifi (PhD)
Department of Economics Isfahan University
Isfahan-Iran
Mehdi Sadeghi (PhD)
Department of Economics Imam Sadiq University
Tehran-Iran
International Energy Workshop
22-24 June 2004, IEA, Paris, FRANCE
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Estimated Fossil Fuel Reserves in 2002 (BBOE)
25.7
99.06161.8
Coal Oil Natural Gas
Estimated Fossil Fuel Reserves in 2002 (%)
9%
35%56%
Coal Oil Natural Gas
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Primary Energy supply and Final Consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Year
Mb
oe
Final Consumption Primary Energy Supply
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Per Capita Primary Energy supply and Final Consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Year
Bo
e
/ year
Final Consumption Primary Energy Supply
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
0
4
8
12
16
20
Bar
rels
Per
Mill
ion
Ria
ls
Year
Energy Intensity ( 1990 constant Prices )
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
The Characteristics of Integrated National
Energy Planning in Iran
Planning horizons and uncertainty Integration of Top-Down and Bottom-Up approaches
Integration of national and regional approaches Autonomous Energy Efficiency Improvement (AEEI) Dual-rate discounting
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
The structure of Energy master plan model
Population
Macro
Energy Demand
Geographical Information
System
Energy Pricing
Energy Supply
Energy
Restructuring
International Trade
Environment
1
3
4
7 5
6
2
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Population Module
Population Module
Demographic data
Urban population growth rateRural population growth rateImmigration ““Labor supply ““Urban and rural household size
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Macro Module
Macro Module
Macroeconomic VariablesAlternative economic growth cases
GDP growth rateCapital-output ratioSocial discount rateSubstitution elasticitiesPrice indices and deflators
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Energy Demand Model
Energy
Demand
Model
Energy demand projectionsEnd-use growth ratePrice elasticitiesIncome elasticitiesEnergy efficienciesDemand curves
Macroeconomic variables Demographic dataEnergy use intensitiesAppliance stock efficienciesUnit energy consumption
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Energy Supply Model
Energy Supply Model
Installed Capacities data Energy production dataCapital and operation costsConversion efficienciesEnvironmental taxes (and subsidies)Operation parameters
Optimal capacity expansionsOptimal investmentsEnergy production projectionsEvaluation of energy technologiesAllocative efficienciesEnergy carriers pricing
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Energy Pricing Model
Energy
Pricing
Model
Energy demand dataEnergy supply dataLRMC prices of energy carriersGini coefficientTaxes (and subsidies)
Social costs of energyAdjusted marginal costs
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Geographical Information System Module
GIS
Module
Impact map analysisRegional energy resourcesRenewable energy resources
Land-use dataEmissions dataPopulation growth rateMeteoclimatic data
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Environment Module
Environment
Module
Social costs of energyAdjusted energy suppliesEmissions trading permit
GIS information setsEmissions factorsEnvironmental taxes
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
International Trade Module
International
Trade
Module
Energy carriers trade flowWTO impact analysisKyoto impact analysis
Domestic energy carriers productionEnvironmental tax ratesOPEC production quotasWorld oil price
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Energy Restructuring Module
Energy
Restructuring
Module
Regulatory impacts on energy prices
Marginal cost prices of energy carriersInstitutional requirementsContracts classifications
International Energy Workshop June 22-24, 2004
Population
Module
Macro Module
(Input-Output/CGE)
Energy Supply Model
Energy Demand Model
International
Trade Module
Geographical Information
System Module
Energy
Restructuring Module
Environment
Module
Energy Pricing Model
1 2
3
4
5
7
6