international energy outlook · 2014. 11. 18. · -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8 2010 2015 2020 2025-4-2. 0. 2....

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

International Energy Outlook

For Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014 | Houston, TX By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration

Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing sources of energy consumption; oil still dominates

2

world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Liquids (including biofuels)

Renewables (excluding biofuels)

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear

History Projections 2010

34%

28%

22%

11%

5%

28%

27%

23%

7%

15%

Share of world total

Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014

World energy consumption growth is concentrated in non-OECD countries

3

world energy consumption, 1990-2040 quadrillion Btu



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD

Non-OECD

History Projections

Results from the IEO2014 Reference case

• World petroleum and other liquid fuels use increases by 38% between 2010 and 2040, all in the non-OECD

• Developing Asia (including China and India) and the Middle East account for 85% of the increase

• Increased demand requires 33 MMbbl/d of additional liquid fuels supplies to reach 119 MMb/d by 2040

– OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 14 MMbbl/d

– Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 10 MMbbl/d

• Other liquid supplies (from NGPL, biofuels, CTL, GTL, and refinery gain) grow in importance, supplying 17% of total liquids production by 2040

Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014 4

5 Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014

These seven regions accounted for 95% of U.S. oil production growth and all U.S. natural gas production growth from 2011-2013

Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report

The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources

6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Eagle Ford (TX)Bakken (MT & ND)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Delaware (TX & NM Permian)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)HaynesvilleUtica (OH, PA & WV)MarcellusWoodford (OK)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Monterey (CA)

U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Marcellus (PA & WV)

Haynesville (LA & TX)

Eagle Ford (TX)

Fayetteville (AR)

Barnett (TX)

Woodford (OK)

Bakken (ND)

Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)

Utica (OH, PA & WV)

Rest of US 'shale'

U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through August 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).


Resource and technology assumptions have major implications for projected U.S. crude oil production beyond the next few years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2000 2010 2020

7

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014; Short Term Energy Outlook, November 2014

Alaska

tight oil

other lower 48 states onshore

lower 48 states offshore

STEO November 2014 U.S. crude oil projection

2012 projections history projections history

2012

Alaska

tight oil

other lower 48 states onshore

Reference case million barrels per day

High Oil and Gas Resource case million barrels per day

lower 48 states offshore


EIA Reference scenario shows world tight oil production increasing to almost 8 million b/d in 2025

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

tight oil production million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 and International Energy Outlook 2014


projections history 2012

U.S. (AEO2014 & IEO2014 Reference case)

World (IEO2014 Reference case)

Tight oil production will spread to nations outside of the United States and Canada over the projection

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

United States Canada Mexico Russia Argentina China Rest of world

2010 2025 2040

tight oil production, Reference case million barrels per day



2.9 MMbbl/d in 2013

3.9 MMbbl/d in 2014 (STEO)

AEO2014 High Resource case

5.0 MMbbl/d in 2015 (STEO)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

U.S. is the largest producer of petroleum and natural gas in the world


estimated U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia petroleum and natural gas production quadrillion Btu million barrels per day of oil equivalent

United States

Russia

Saudi Arabia

petro-leum

natural gas

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Petroleum production includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensates, refinery processing gain, and other liquids, including biofuels; barrels per day oil equivalent were calculated using a conversion factor of 1 barrel oil equivalent=5.55 million British thermal units (Btu)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014

Other Non-OPEC

Syria

Sudan / S. Sudan

Iraq

Nigeria

Libya

Iran

U.S. oil production growth helping to offset unplanned outages

11

estimated unplanned crude oil production outages million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2014 *monthly production delta versus Jan. 2011 production level

Non- OPEC

OPEC


U.S. Production growth*

Effect of low oil prices on U.S. shale oil production


Source: Rystad Energy North America Quarterly Shale Report

US+CA, oil+NGLs from tight plays (kbbld)

Brent-indexed breakeven prices:

U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040, when production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day

13

U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Associated with oil Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

Alaska Non-associated offshore

Non-associated onshore



billion cubic feet per day

14

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2005 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case

projections history

industrial*

electric power

commercial

residential

transportation**

11.2

4.1

1.7

11.0

3.6

9.1

4.2

0.7

8.5

2.9

*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel

Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use


U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future

15

U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case


-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


Consumption

Domestic supply

Net exports

100

75

50

25

0

-25


Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case and High Oil and Gas Resource case


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2010 2015 2020 2025-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2010 2015 2020 2025

Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances

Reference case trillion cubic feet per year

exports to Mexico exports to Canada

lower 48 LNG exports

imports from Canada

LNG imports

High Oil and Gas Resource case trillion cubic feet per year


0

5

20

15

10

-5

-10

Most of the growth in production between 2011 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

API 50+API 40-50API 35-40API 27-35API below 27

U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/


forecast history

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/


Crude oil and associated liquids contain a wide variety of hydrocarbons

Source: EIA via Harvey Crude Assay Management System

EIA projects declines in carbon dioxide emissions for all sectors except industrial relative to 2005


Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Coal continues to account for the largest share of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection

20

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons

Coal

Natural gas

Liquid fuels

2010 History Projections



Areas of uncertainty in the outlook

• Oil prices

• China’s energy demand growth; particularly in transportation

• Increasing global trade of natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids in addition to oil

• Global development of tight oil and shale gas resources

• Policy decisions on crude oil exports

• Impact of geopolitical tensions on energy supply

• Constraints on CO2


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2014

AEO 2013

AEO 2004 actual production history

EIA natural gas production forecasts were revised up significantly between 2013 and 2014


forecasted dry natural gas production billion cubic feet per day

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; EIA Monthly Natural Gas Production Report

EIA crude oil production forecasts were also revised up substantially between 2013 and 2014


forecasted crude oil production million barrels per day

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; EIA via state agencies

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2014

AEO 2013

AEO 2004 actual production history

For more information


U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/state

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

international energy outlook · 2014. 11. 18. · -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8 2010 2015 2020 2025-4-2. 0. 2....

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