International Cooperation toward National Action Plan

for Adaptation

1. Framework of Adaptation Planning2. Vulnerability Assessment for the Asia and

Pacific Region3. Conclusions

Nobuo Mimura Center for Water Environment Studies

Ibaraki University, Japan

Conditions for Adaptation Planning• Need to know the range and degree of the potential impacts,

and vulnerable sectors and areas(hot spots)

• Need to know what are needed to increase preparedness against the impacts

• Need to know strategy and tactics for adaptation

• The adaptation plan should be incorporated in the mainstream policies such as disaster prevention, environmental management, agriculture, forestry, and fishery, urban infrastructures, and national development plan.

• Adaptation is a part of sustainable development plan in each country

• Adaptation should meet the social acceptance. Therefore, need to raise people’s awareness on the vulnerability

Framework of Adaptation Planning1. Vulnerability Assessment

- Past works including IPCC TAR is an important contribution - So much information, mainly in a qualitative manner- Insufficient to use as a basis for the adaptation planning

2. Needs Assessment- Need to know what are needed for the vulnerable sectors

and areas

3. Adaptation Assessment- Strategies and measures of adaptation

4. National Action Plan for Adaptation

• Need more studies to prepare the adaptation plan, and capacity building for these.

Impacts of Global Warming

Water Cycle/Resources

Agriculture/Food Supply

Extreme Events

Urban/Energy/Industry

Climate Change

Ecosystem

Coastal Zone/Ocean

Insurance/Finance

Impacts on the Asia and Pacific Region

Assessment Method

Sea Level Scenarios１．Present HWL

２．Present HWL+ Maximum Storm Surge (past 40 yrs)

３．HWL in 2100 (1m SLR)

４．HWL in 2100 + Maximum Storm Surge (past 40 yrs)

Primary ImpactsInundated Areas, and Flooded Areas by Storm surge

Secondary ImpactsPopulation, Natural Systems, and Infrastructures

Sea Level Scenarios

Future Mean Sea Level

Present Mean Sea Level

HWL

Maximum Sea Level

Increase by SS

Design Water Level

DWL = SLR + HWL by Tide + Storm Surge

DWL

SLR(1m)

HWL by Tide

Global Database

Nation1996World BankLong-term Prediction

Future population

5’1994CIESEN (US)Gridded pop. of the World

Population

points on tracks

1842～1989

US NOAAWorld-wide Tropical Data Set

Cyclones

points1999Hydrographic Dep. Japan

Tide TablesTide

4.8’1982Global GRASS DataNations World Political Bound.

Boundary

5’1988Nat. Geographic Data Center (US)

ETOPO5Water Depth

0.5’1993EROS Data Center (US)

GTOPO30Topography

Global average

1992IPCC SARIPCC estimationSLR

Create a data set with a uniform 1’ grid

Topography of Target Area Height（GTOPO30，[m]）

Depth（ETOPO5，[m]）

----------

02050

100200500

1000200050007833

-270

2050

100200500

100020005000

----------

-9000-8000-7000-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000

0

-10376-9000-8000-7000-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000

60°

90°

90°

30°

60°

0°

30°

30°60°

180° 165°120° 150°

NORTH

SOUTH

EAST WEST

Land：65×106km2

SLR Scenario

1.0 m

Distribution of Tidal Amplitude - East Asia

------

1.02.03.04.05.0

5.28

01.02.03.04.05.0

120°EAST

30°NORTH Ariake Inland Sea 2.44m

Western Korea 4.08m

Amplitude（m）

Estimated Typhoon Parameters(1949～1988）

Lowest Center Pressure Maximum Wind Velocity

Lowest Cent. Press. [hPa]---------

860880900920940960980

1000

860880900920940960980

10001013

Maximum Wind Vel. [m/s]------

2030405060

172030405060

Characteristics of Typhoons（1949～1988）

Cumulative Effect of Typhoon

Average Wind Vel.(m／min)

Retention Time(min/typhoon)

Frequency(number/yr)× ×∑

Frequency [num./yr]-------

1.02.03.04.05.06.0

1.02.03.04.05.06.06.8

Retention Time [day]-------

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

1.02.03.04.05.06.0

Average Vel. [m/s]--------

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.0

5.010.015.020.025.030.035.038.8

Severity of Typhoon Effect（1949～1988）- Cumulative Effect

SeverityRank１

Rank２

Rank３

Rank４

Rank５

Rank６

Rank７

Rank８

Rank９

Maximum Storm Surge（Past 40 years）

Strom Surge（[m]）---------

1.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

8.68

01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

Hangchou （杭州）Bay 7.1mHong Kong～Reichou 8.6m

Inundated and Flooded Areas- East Asia

<Inundation> <Flooding by Storm Surge >

Inundated by HWL Flooded by HWL + SSInundated by HWL+1m SLR Flooded by HWL + SS

+ 1mSLR

Inundated and Flooded Areas- Southeast and South Asia

<Inundation> <Flooding by Storm Surge>

Equator

Inundated by HWL Flooded by HWL + SSInundated by HWL+1m SLR Flooded by HWL + SS

+ 1mSLR

Inundated and Flooded Areas- Kalimantan, New Guinea, North Australia

<Inundation> <Flooding by Storm Surge>

Equator

Inundated by HWL Flooded by HWL + SSInundated by HWL+1m SLR Flooded by HWL + SS

+ 1mSLR

Estimate of Future Population

Rate of Population Growth(country-based, 2100／1994）

Population Distribution in 1994×

Affected Areas and Pupolation

Inundated and Flooded Areas Affected Population

0

20

40

60

80

100

水没

・氾

濫面

積[万

km2

]

HWL HWL+SS HWL HWL+SS

0.48%

1.32%

0.95%0.94%

0

1

2

3

4

5

影響

人口

[億人

]HWL HWL+SS HWL HWL+SS

1.21%

5.33% 5.12%

11.68%

Present(No SLR)

2100（1mSLR）

Present(No SLR)

2100（1mSLR）

Distribution of Roads

Roads

SLR+HWL

SLR+HWL+SSRoad

FloodingInundation

7.4%38.8%57.6%

26.3%43.6%57.6%

Bangladesh

SingaporeBrunei

Distribution of Railways

Railways1.3%50.0%100%

Inundation

22.4%62.5%100%

Flooding

Bangladesh

SingaporeBrunei

SLR+HWL

SLR+HWL+SSRailway

Distribution of Utilities

Utilities

SLR+HWL

SLR+HWL+SS

Utility

6.2%4.8%Malaysia8.7%

57.3%5.9%

Inundation

62.5%

62.5%12.2%

Flooding

Bangladesh

VietnamBrunei

Mangrove42.8%74.3%

87.0%Inundation

68.1%75.4%

87.7%Flooding

Bangladesh

Vietnam

Indonesia

SLR+HWL

SLR+HWL+SS

Mangrove

Response Strategies

1.Protection

2.Accommodation

3.Planned Retreat

Some Thresholds of Impacts

Negative effects for 2-3 ℃increase

NationsEconomy

Increase of mortality rate for 33-35 ℃ of daily high temp.

Elder peopleHuman Health

Erosion of 57% beaches by 30cm SLR100 billion US$ of costs for 1mSLR

Sandy beach

Port and coastal structure

Coastal Zone

Bleaching by 1-2 ℃ increase in water temperature

CoralMarine Ecosystem

Heat effect by over 35 ℃during flowering

RiceAgriculture

Apparent effects for 2℃increaseCannot survive for 45cm SLR

Plants in high mountainMangrove

Ecosystem

Conclusions

We need to strengthen international cooperation in the following fields to promote developing National Action Plan for Adaptation.

1. Vulnerability Assessment2. Needs Assessment3. Adaptation Assessment4. National Action Plan for Adaptation

Collaborative Studies in the South Pacific

1991-1997 Assessment of Impact and VulnerabilityCoastal Zone Management

- Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, Tuvalu

#A New Stage from VA to Response

1999-2000 Needs Assessment to countries and stakeholders

2001-2002 Editing the Resource Book as a guidingmaterial for NAPS