International Contemporary Conflict,

Complexity and the Hermeneutic Net

Armando Geller & Scott MossCentre for Policy Modelling

Manchester Metropolitan University Business School

{armando, scott}@cfpm.org

Afghanistan: anomie, neo-patrimonialism & qawm

• Qawm: Elusive term• Qawm are context-dependent and fluid solidarity

networks transgressing all kinds of spheres of Afghan social life.

• Competition among and within qawm• Qawm leaders need to be able to accumulate and to

redistribute resources• Neo-qawm emerge in an anomic and Hobbesian

situation• Neo-qawm are dominated by new elites• In neo-qawm neo-patrimonial mechanisms prevail• Neo-qawm tap on the criminal economy The neo-qawm preserved its functional character but

altered its rational amid a changing social context

A model of power structures (qawm ) in Afghanistan

Commander

Businessman

Farmer Civilian

Warrior

Drug farmerOrganised

criminal

Drug dealer

PoliticianReligious

leader

Growing qawm : Results from a representative simulation run

businessman-0

businessman-1

businessman-2businessman-3

businessman-4

businessman-5

commander-0

commander-1

commander-2

commander-3

commander-4

commander-5politician-0

politician-1

politician-2

politician-3

politician-4

politician-5

religious-leader-0

religious-leader-1

religious-leader-2religious-leader-3

religious-leader-4

religious-leader-5

organised-criminal-0

organised-criminal-1

organised-criminal-2

organised-criminal-3

organised-criminal-4

organised-criminal-5

Evolving small-world networks – in the model and in reality

Abdullah

Abdul Malik

Afzali

Ahadi

Akbari

Ali Hazrat

Anwari

Arsala

Atmar

Atta

Baba Jan

Balkhi

Brahui

Bin LadenDadfar

Danish

Dostum

Fahim

Farhang

Fatemi

Gailani

Gul Agha Sherzai

Hasanyar

HaqaniHekmatyar

ISI

Iran Jalal

Jalali

Jamiat-e Ulama

Karzai

Khales

Khalili

Ahmad Zia Masud

Masumi

Ismail Khan

Muhaqeq

Muhsini

Mujaddidi

Pakistan

Pashtun

Qaderi

Qanuni

Qarqin

Qasimi

Rabbani

Rahin

Ramin

Rasul

Russia

Safari

Sangeen

Saudi Arabia

Sayyaf

SediqSharani

Taliban

United States

WardakZahir

Network properties:• Sub-networks, characterised by the presence of connections between

almost any two nodes within them• Short path connection of nodes• Average geodesic distance: Fuchs 2.972, AfghanModel 3.331• Erdös-Renyi random networks have smaller clustering coefficients and

their geodesic distances are comparable to those of the Fuchs and the AfghanModel networks

Fuchs 2005 AfghanModel

The dynamics of endorsements, relations and…

... resources

Conflicting qawm

• Factional analysis allows unearthing possible fringe zones amongst and within qawm.

• We found 24 factions of which:– 10 factions are ethnically and religiously homogeneous– Only 14 factions incorporate also elites– The two most successful factions are also the ethnically and

religiously most diverse factions and incorporate a diverse spectrum of agents

• Inter-qawm conflict– Between / amongst radical factions– Between / amongst heterogeneous and radical factions– Between / amongst heterogeneous factions

• Intra-qawm conflict– Between / amongst competing strongmen– As a result of social conflict (wealth, alternative livelihood strategies)– Ethnic and religious conflict within heterogeneous qawm

An evolving hermeneutic net

• No independence between the modelling cycle and the social processes a model represents.

• An alternative is to repeatedly cross-validate results from evidence-driven and empirically validated social simulation models against stakeholders’ narratives so that the modelling itself becomes embedded in the social processes as the modeller’s and stakeholders’ and domain experts’ perceptions of reality co-evolve.

• This is not so much a hermeneutic circle as it is itself a constantly evolving hermeneutic net.

• Epistemological value: Uncovering, dissecting and explaining social mechanisms, processes and structures

Conclusions

• Cross-validation between the AfghanModel and Fuchs (2005) suggest that the model captures aspects of reality.

• Neo-patrimonial behaviour of Afghan actors leads to the emergence of neo-qawm with small-world network characteristics.

• Hermeneutic net helps to uncover, dissect and explain complementary notions of mechanisms, processes and structures.

• The notion of qawm (and its factional analysis) allows for identifying potential fields of conflict; this also implies that mono-causal explanations fall short.

• In general: The Afghan conflict is a complex and complicated social phenomenon that is generated from traditional and new forms of politico-socio-economic cooperation and competition within and amongst traditional and new forms of organisational entities.