international coffee organization - bienvenue à yamoussoukro · 2019-03-07 · coffee statistical...
TRANSCRIPT
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Statistical WorkshopKigali, Rwanda12 February 2019
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Item 1Welcome
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• Role of ICO Members in providing data on the global coffee sector
• Coffee sector balance sheet
• Review of the global coffee market situation
• ICO statistical reporting requirements
Overview of the Workshop Agenda
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Item 2Role of ICO Membersin providing data on
the global coffee sector
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‘Delivering world-class data, analysis and information to the industry and policy makers.’
‘A core function of the Organization is to be the world’s most respectedcoffee statistical authority, enhancing market transparency by providingMembers and third parties with easy access to accurate and comprehensivestatistical data, and high quality analytics related to the world coffeeeconomy to the benefit of all stakeholders in the coffee supply chain,including decision-makers responsible for coffee policy.’
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‘The quality of the Organization’s statistical work depends heavily on data submitted by Members.’
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Africa’s share of global coffee production
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Afri
ca’s
pro
duct
ion
as s
hare
in to
tal
mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Africa Rest of World
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Global coffee exports by region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Africa Asia & Oceania Central America & Mexico South America
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Green coffee exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Africa Asia & Oceania Central America & Mexico South America
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Soluble coffee exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Africa Asia & Oceania Central America & Mexico South America
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Africa’s share of global consumption
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Afri
ca’s
con
sum
ptio
n as
sha
re in
tota
l
mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Africa Rest of World
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• Responding to requests for information from the general public and media
• Providing data on the coffee sector to researchers from around the world (http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2018-19/ed-2295e-call-for-award-competition.pdf )
• Presentations and talks at various forum
• Market reports on the coffee sector
• Background information for development projects
How the Secretariat uses the data it collects
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3.Coffee sector balance sheet
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• Ensures internal consistency of data at both country-level and global level
• Ensures consistency of data over time
• Analysis of the fundamentals of the coffee market
Why understand the balance sheet?
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Supply = Demand
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opening stocks + production=
consumption + ending stocks
or
production – consumption = change in stocks
Global Balance Sheet
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Global Balance Sheet (2017/18)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Supply Demand
mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Production Consumption
Change in stocks
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beginning stocks + production + imports
=consumption + ending stocks + exports
Country level balance sheet
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Colombia balance sheet (2017/18)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Supply Demand
Mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Production
Consumption
Exports
ImportsOpening stocks Ending stocks
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Item 3.1Production, area,
productivity
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Supply: Production
Production
Area Yield
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Supply: Area and YieldArea
Non-producing vs ProducingClimate ChangeCompeting crops
YieldFarm management/agronomic techniquesLevel of inputs used (fertilizer/insecticide etc)PestsDiseasesAge of treesWeather
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Item 3.2Trade
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Supply: ImportsOnly source of supply for non-producingcountries
For producing countries, imports cancover supply shortages due to:• Delays in harvesting • Lower output • Type not produced in the country
At the global level imports are matchedby exports so do not contribute to globalsupply or demand
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Demand: (Re)Exports Exports and re-exports are essentially external demand
Timing and volume affected by:• International prices vs. domestic• Exchange rates• Trade policy• Domestic policy• Shipping
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Item 3.3Consumption
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Demand: ConsumptionOften the hardest parameter to estimate or obtain direct data for
Can be calculated based on the values of the other parameters
Is affected by the following factors:• Growth in population • Growth in per capita income• Investment in infrastructure• Government policies• Prices of competing goods• Culture
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Item 3.4Stocks
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StocksOpening stocks are carried over from previous season while ending stocks is the amount of coffee that is
Under quotas more stocks were held by exporters
In the last two decades importers tend to have more of the stocks, usually keeping on hand around 2-3 months of supply.
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Item 4Review of the global
coffee market situation
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Supply
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-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Milli
on 6
0-kg
bag
s
Robusta Arabica
COFFEE PRODUCTION BY TYPE(coffee years 1990/91 to 2017/18)
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Africa
Asia & Oceania
Central America &Mexico
South America
million 60-kg bags
2015/162016/172017/182018/19
Coffee production by region
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Production in the global top six
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Brazil
Vietnam
Colombia
Indonesia
Ethiopia
Honduras
India
Million 60-kg bags
2015/162016/172017/182018/19
Crop year production
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ethiopia
Uganda
Côte d'Ivoire
Tanzania
Kenya
Million 60-kg bags
2015/162016/172017/182018/19
Production Africa’s top fiveCrop year production
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Trade
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115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
Non-producers Producers
Imports (January to October)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Milli
on 6
0-kg
bag
s
2015 2016 2017 2018
GLOBAL MONTHLY EXPORTS OF ALL FORMS
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Brazil
Vietnam
Colombia
Honduras
India
Uganda
Million 60-kg bags
2015201620172018
Total exports for January to December
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
billio
n U
S $
milli
on 6
0-kg
bag
s
Volume Value
Annual export volume and value
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Consumption
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LOOKING AHEADGLOBAL COFFEE CONSUMPTION
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16
Milli
on 6
0-kg
bag
s
Producing countries Importing countries
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0 10 20 30 40 50
Europe
Asia & Oceania
North America
South America
Africa
Central America &Mexico
million 60-kg bags
15/1616/1717/1818/19
Consumption by region
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Annual consumption in top 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
European Union USA Brazil
Mill
ion
60-k
g bg
s
2015 2016 2017 2018
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Annual consumption
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Japan Indonesia Russian Federation Canada Ethiopia
Mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
2015201620172018
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Prices
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COFFEE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION(coffee years 1990/91 to 2018/19)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16
Milli
on 6
0-kg
bag
s
Production Consumption
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DAILY COMPOSITE INDICATOR PRICE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18
US
cen
ts/lb
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GROUP INDICATOR PRICES
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
US
cent
s/lb
Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robusta
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40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Inde
x: S
epte
mbe
r 201
6 =
100
Brazilian Real USD
Brazilian Natural Indicator Price
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60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Inde
x: S
epte
mbe
r 201
6 =
100
Indonesian rupiah Vietnamese dong USD
Robusta Indicator Price
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INVENTORIES IN IMPORTING COUNTRIES
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-18
Mill
ion
60-k
g ba
gs
EU USA Japan
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COFFEE PRICES AND GLOBAL COFFEE BALANCE
-
50
100
150
200
250
-10
-5
-
5
10
15
20
1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16
US
cen
ts/lb
Milli
on 6
0-kg
bag
s
Balance Season-average price
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5.ICO statistical
reporting requirements
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Reporting requirements according to the Rules on Statistics
Exporting Members
Monthly1. Preliminary totals of monthly exports2. Report on exports3. Report on imports4. Certificates of Origin5. Prices paid to growers6. Retail prices
Annual7. Opening stocks8. Production9. Domestic consumption10. Crop percentage distribution11. Area under coffee
Importing Members
Monthly1. Imports2. Re-exports3. Retail prices
Annual/Quarterly4. Roastings5. Inventories
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Item 5.1Certificates of
Origin
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http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2017-18/icc-102-9-r1e-rules-certificates-origin-final.pdf
Annex II (page 13)
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CERTIFICATES OF ORIGIN[MONTH/YEAR]
Coffee year
Country of
Origin
Port of Origin
Serial Number
Net weight
Unit of
weight
Date of customs
(DD/MM/YY)
Country of destination (name or
code)
Form of
coffee
Type of
coffee
Methodof
processing
Mode of shipment
Additional information
Quality (Res. 420)
Special characteristics
Harmonised System
code
Value national
currency ( ) US$ ( )
€ ( )
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Certificates of Origin-part 1Coffee Year Country of
OriginPort of Origin Serial
2018 028 15 44
2018 028 15 46
2018 028 15 47
2018 028 15 48
2018 028 15 49
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Certificates of Origin-part 2Net weight Unit of Weight Date Country of
destination19200 kg 05/10/2025 44
20500 kg 05/10/2025 46
17500 kg 12/10/2025 47
19200 kg 14/10/2025 48
7500 kg 23/10/2025 49
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Green coffee combinations• Green (G)Form
• Arabica (A)• Robusta (R)Type
• Wet (W)• Dry (D)Process
• Decaffeinated (D)• Organic (O)• NA
Additional information
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Green coffee combinations• Roasted (R)Form
• NAType
• NAProcess
• Decaffeinated• Organic• NA
Additional information
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Roasted coffee combinations• Soluble (S) Form
• NAType
• Spray-dried (SD)• Freeze-dried (FD)• Preparation (P)
Process
• Decaffeinated• Organic• NA
Additional information
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Certificates of Origin-part 3Form Type Method of
processingAdditional information
G A W
G A W O
G A W
R D
S SD
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Certificates of Origin-part 4Quality (Res. 420)
Special Characteristics
Harmonised System Code
Value (currency US D)
S fairtrade 090111 123 456
XD gourmet 090111 123 456
XM 4C 090111 123 456
XDM Rainforest/Utz 090122 123 456
UNSP 210111 123 456
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Coffee and HS Codes
Form of Coffee
0901 or 2101
Green/Roasted
0901
Soluble
2101
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HS Codes: Green and Roasted
Form of Coffee
Green/Roasted
0901
Green
0901.1X
Green
0901.11
Green decaffeinated
0901.12
Roasted
0901.2X
Roasted
0901.21
Roasted decaffeinated
0901.22
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HS Codes: SolubleForm of Coffee
0901 or 2101
Green/Roasted
0901
Soluble
2101.1X
Extracts (freeze-dried or
spray dried )2101.11
Extracts decaffeinated
2101.11.21.30
Preparations with a basis of
extracts2101.12.92
Preparations with a basis of
coffee2101.12.98
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Item 5.2Statistical Reports
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MONTHLY REPORT: EXPORTS BY DESTINATION
Statistical Information to be sent by email or by fax:
Month/year:
Country ofVolume
(net weight)Unit of weight
Form of Type of Method of processing
3/
Value 4/ Harmonised Other
destination 1/ coffeecoffee
2/ National US$ or €System relevant
Code Name (G/R/S) (A/R) currency Code 5/ information
1/ Either name and/or ICO, EU or ISO code (please specify)2/ Green coffee only3/ Dry (D) or Wet (W) for green coffee; Spray-dried (SD) or Freeze-dried (FD) for soluble coffee4/ In national currency and/or in either US$ or €uro (please indicate)5/ OptionalOther relevant information: decaffeinated (D) or organic (O)
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MONTHLY REPORT: IMPORTS BY ORIGINStatistical Information to be sent by email or by fax:Month/year:
HS codeCountry of origin 1/ Unit of
weightVolume
(net weight)Value 2/
Code Name National currency US$ or €
1/ Either name and/or ICO, EU or ISO code (please specify)2/ In national currency and/or in either US$ or €uro (please indicate)
SUMMARY (if available)HS code Volume Value
Green coffee: 090111090112
Roasted coffee: 090121090122
Soluble coffee:210111
2101129221011298
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QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL REPORTS: PRODUCTION ESTIMATE; CROP DISTRIBUTION; GROSS CLOSING STOCKS; AND AREA UNDER COFFEE
I. Quarterly information: production estimatePreliminary estimate for crop
year ________/____Total Domestic Exportable
production consumption production Unit of weight000 bags ( ) metric ton ( )
(______) % Arabica (______) % Arabica(______) % Robusta (______) % Robusta
II. Annual informationa. Percentage distribution of crop by quarter
1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter
% % % %
b. Annual data: Gross closing stocks at the end of the crop year:Estimated gross closing stocks on the last day of the crop year ( 31 March/30 June/30 September)
Arabica coffee Robusta coffee 000 bags ( ) metric ton ( )Total stocks held: (a) + (b)
1/1/ Stocks held by roasters, exporters, central marketing and regulating organizations and cooperatives
a. Stocks of green coffee
i. Public 2/ 2/ Stocks held by the Government or government controlled agencies/bodiesii. Private
b. Stocks of processed coffee 3/ 3/ in Green Bean Equivalent: the following conversion factors: 1.19 for roasted coffee and 2.6 for soluble coffee, to be appliedi. Public 2/
ii. Private
c. Area under coffee
Region/StateCoffee trees
New trees Trees in productionArea (ha) Trees (000 trees) Area (ha) Trees (000 trees)
Total
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REPORT ON PROVISIONAL EXPORTS,
PRICES TO GROWERS AND RETAIL/WHOLESALE PRICES
Statistical information to be sent by email
I. Information to be transmitted within 30 days after the close of the month:
b. Average price paid to growers* in the previous month:
* In national currency per unit purchased (please specify)
c. Retail/wholesale prices (where available)
c.1. Roasted coffee
Month/year
c.2. Soluble coffee
Month/year
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Item 5.3Compliance
with Rules on Statistics
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Summary Strict Compliance• Exporting Members
account for 98% of world coffee exports
• Compliance for 2016/17• Information provided:
– Monthly export & certificate of origin data (36)
– Monthly prices paid to growers (12)
– Annual stocks, production and consumption (3)
– New information included in ICA 2007(4)Good
Partial (score <30)Non-compliance
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Compliance with additional information included in ICA 2007
05
101520253035404550
Area Retail prices Quaterly crop distribution
Import volume and value
Num
ber o
f Mem
bers
Compliant Compliant in previous years No information received
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New compliance indicators
• Compliance would be measured on a scale from 0 to 100 with 100 indicating full compliance.
• The following indicators would be published in an annual Compliance Report for the most recently completed coffee year:
• Total for both importing and exporting Members• Total for all exporting Members• Total for all importing Members• Individual score for each Member
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Basic dimensions of compliance for indicator
1. Timeliness: Are reports submitted on time? On time = 1 Late submission = 0
2. Completeness: Are individual reports provided? Report provided = 1 Report not provided = 0
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Scoreie
1/11
1/11
Annual
Monthly
Certificates of Origin
Completeness
0/1
Certificates of Origin
January
Compliance x 1/2 + Timeliness x 1/2
Certificates of Origin
February
...
Certificates of Origin
March
…
Certificates of Origin
Timeliness
0/1
1/2 1/
2
… …
Preliminary
exports
… …
1/121/12 …
Monthly reportsCertificates of Origin /Prelim. exports / Exports / Imports / Prices paid to growers / Retail
prices
Annual reportsOpening stocks / Production / Domestic consumption / Crop percentage
distribution / Area under coffee
…Openingstocks
1/2
1/2
n = number of reportsie = exporting country
Openingsstocks
Completeness
0/1
Openingstocks
Timeliness
0/1
ComplianceIndividual exporting Members
Exports
1/11 1/1
1Production
1/11
… …
…
1/11
Certificates of Origin
1/12
1/11
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Scoree1/44
Scoreie … Scoreie
n = number of exporting Membersie = Exporting country
ComplianceGroup of exporting Members
Scoreie Scoreie
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑒𝑒 =∑𝑖𝑖𝑛𝑛 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖𝑒𝑒
𝑛𝑛
1/44 1/44 1/441/44
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Scoretotal1/2 1/2
Scoree
ComplianceAggregated for all ICO Members
Scorei
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 =𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑒𝑒 + 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖
2
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Rebecca PandolphChief, Statistics Section, ICO
Tel. +44(0)20 7612 0628Email: [email protected]
Website: www.ico.org