international affairs division singapore climate change conference 2007 swiss confederation federal...

International Affairs DivisionSingapore Climate Change Conference 2007

Swiss Confederation

Federal Office for the Environment

Global perspective on climate changeGlobal perspective on climate change

Dr. José RomeroDr. José Romero

Swiss National Focal Point for the UNFCCC, the KP and the IPCC Swiss National Focal Point for the UNFCCC, the KP and the IPCC

Swiss Federal Office for the EnvironmentSwiss Federal Office for the EnvironmentBerne, SwitzerlandBerne, Switzerland

[email protected]@bafu.admin.ch


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OutlineOutline

• Weather, climate change and security in theWeather, climate change and security in the

mediamedia• Climate change: causes, projectionsClimate change: causes, projections• ConsequencesConsequences• Potential for conflictPotential for conflict• Dealing with the threats Dealing with the threats • Reasons for hopeReasons for hope• Web sitesWeb sites


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Climate changeClimate changeandand

security security in in

the mediathe media


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« Now the Pentagon tells Bush: « Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us »climate change will destroy us »

« Secret report warns of rioting « Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war. Britain will be and nuclear war. Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years. 'Siberian' in less than 20 years. Threat to the world is greater than Threat to the world is greater than terrorism »terrorism »

« Climate change over the next 20 « Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters»lives in wars and natural disasters»

The Guardian, UKThe Guardian, UK

Mark Townsend and Mark Townsend and Paul HarrisPaul Harris

New York, Sunday New York, Sunday February 22, 2004 February 22, 2004


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UNITED NATIONS -- During the first U.N. Security Council debate on climate change, Britain argued that global conflicts are ignited over the issue, while developing nations said the topic didn't belong on the council's agenda.

Security Council Tackles Climate Change

By EDITH M. LEDERERThe Associated PressWednesday, April 18, 2007; 6:33 AM


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10 October 2007

From Jaime FlorCruzCNN BEIJING, China (CNN) -- As Typhoon Krosa barreled toward eastern China over the weekend, every level of the Chinese government was whipped into action, evacuating 1.4 million people from the two coastal provinces on which Krosa set its sights.

Krosa stormed across Taiwan, reportedly killing five people, before hammering Zhejiang and Fujian provinces with ferocious winds, rain, flooding and general devastation. Roads were blocked with debris, residents were left without power, businesses closed, schools shut down -- but there were no official reports of deaths in China.Analysts and observers said China's ability to move hundreds of thousands of people out of harm's way speaks to the country's exceptional ability to mobilize resources and people to deal with disasters.


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Paramilitary officers evacuate residents Sunday on the outskirts of Cangnan in Zhejiang Province

Source: AP Photo10 Oct 2007


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How governments are How governments are informed aboutinformed aboutclimate changeclimate change


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The international The international community has community has established in 1988 a established in 1988 a scientific body:scientific body:

Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Panel on Climate Change, IPCCChange, IPCC

Its Secretariat is at WMO, Its Secretariat is at WMO, Geneva, SwitzerlandGeneva, Switzerland

To assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding:

- the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change

- its potential impacts and

- options for adaptation and mitigation.

The IPCC is open to all member countries of WMO and UNEP


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““Assessment” of scientific Assessment” of scientific research (not research):research (not research):

Assessment ReportsAssessment Reports(Science, Impacts, Socio-(Science, Impacts, Socio-

economic issues)economic issues)

Methodologies for Methodologies for greenhouse gas inventories greenhouse gas inventories (GHG)(GHG)

www.ipcc.chwww.ipcc.ch

What kind of works does the IPCC do?What kind of works does the IPCC do?


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Governed (i. e. logistical aspects only!) by Governed (i. e. logistical aspects only!) by the Governments’ the Governments’ representatives and a permanent Secretariat (5 staff) representatives and a permanent Secretariat (5 staff)

Scientists are proposed by Governments and chosen by the Scientists are proposed by Governments and chosen by the IPCC BureauIPCC Bureau

Thousands of scientists work freely, according to scientific Thousands of scientists work freely, according to scientific practices, without governmental interference and on a militia practices, without governmental interference and on a militia basisbasis

The finished IPCC works are extensively reviewed (peer The finished IPCC works are extensively reviewed (peer and and government) and comments are considered by government) and comments are considered by the authorsthe authors

The The Summary for PolicymakersSummary for Policymakers of the Reports is approved (i. e. of the Reports is approved (i. e. negotiated word by word) by the Governments’ representativesnegotiated word by word) by the Governments’ representatives

How does the IPCC work?How does the IPCC work?


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This year, the This year, the IPCC releases its IPCC releases its

Fourth Fourth Assessment Assessment ReportReport (AR4)(AR4)


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Evidence of climate changeEvidence of climate change

Presentation Presentation of of

the findings of the findings of the IPCC the IPCC

Fourth Assessment ReportFourth Assessment Report(AR4)(AR4)


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Global atmospheric

concentrations of

greenhouse gases

increased markedly as

result of human activities

In 2005, concentration of

CO2 exceeded by far the

natural range over the last

650,000 years

Human Human contribution to contribution to climate changeclimate change

Changes in CO2 from ice core and modern data

10000 5000 0

Time (before 2005)

Rad

iati

ve F

orc

ing

(W

m )

-2

Car

bo

n D

ioxi

de

(pp

m)


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Direct Observations of Recent Climate ChangeDirect Observations of Recent Climate Change

Gobal mean temperature 0.74 oC increase since 1906

Global averagesea level1.8 mm/yr since 1961 (and 3.1 mm/yr since 1993)

Northern hemispheresnow cover


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Glaciers and frozen ground are recedingGlaciers and frozen ground are receding

Area of seasonally frozen ground in NH has decreasedby 7% from 1901 to 2002

Increased Glacier retreat since the early 1990s


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Regions of disproportionate changes in heavy (95th) and very heavy (99th) precipitation

Proportion of heavy rainfalls: increasing in most land areas


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• Widespread changes in Widespread changes in extreme temperaturesextreme temperatures

observedobserved

• ColdCold days, cold nights and days, cold nights and frost less frequentfrost less frequent

• HotHot days, hot nights, and days, hot nights, and heat waves more frequentheat waves more frequent

• Observational evidence for an Observational evidence for an increase of intense increase of intense

tropical cyclone activitytropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since in the North Atlantic since

about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea

surface temperaturessurface temperatures

Other changes in Extreme EventsOther changes in Extreme Events


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CausesCausesof of

climate change: climate change: anthropogenicanthropogenic

greenhouse gas emissionsgreenhouse gas emissionsFourth Assessment ReportFourth Assessment Report

(AR4)(AR4)


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Anthropogenic GHG emissions by regionAnthropogenic GHG emissions by region


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Projections ofProjections of

future climate future climate

and and

impactsimpacts

Fourth Assessment ReportFourth Assessment Report

(AR4)(AR4)


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Ranges for predicted surface warmingRanges for predicted surface warmingMulti-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming


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Projected warmingin 21st century expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes

and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

Projections of Future Changes in ClimateProjections of Future Changes in Climate


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Projected sea level riseProjected sea level rise


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Human health: heat waves, spread of infectious diseases, etc.

Some regions will be more affected than others:

• The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)

• Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)

• Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)

• Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)

Some ecosystems are highly vulnerableSome ecosystems are highly vulnerable::

• Coral reefs, marine shell organisms

• Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions

• 20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction

Some key vulnerabilities to climate change


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Coastal settlements most at riskCoastal settlements most at risk


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Impacts on biodiversity Impacts on biodiversity


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PotentialPotential

for for

conflictsconflicts

resulting from resulting from

climate changeclimate change


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The The availability of essential elementsavailability of essential elements for life will be under stress and for life will be under stress and threatened:threatened:

food food coastal zonescoastal zones

water water forestsforests

arable landarable land soil soil

Extremes eventsExtremes events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts and storms, will such as hurricanes, floods, droughts and storms, will become more frequent and intense and will add stress to the societybecome more frequent and intense and will add stress to the society

The The availability of local energyavailability of local energy (e.g. hydro, biomass) may be (e.g. hydro, biomass) may be threatenedthreatened

These stresses will generate These stresses will generate environmental refugeesenvironmental refugees

Potential sectors in which climate changePotential sectors in which climate changemay induce conflicts (within and between countries)may induce conflicts (within and between countries)


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Security risks resulting from climate change(fom Manfred Stock, Potsdam-Inst. für Klimafolgenforschung, 2007)


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What What

has to be donehas to be done

Fourth Assessment ReportFourth Assessment Report (AR4)(AR4)


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Pathways towards stabilizationPathways towards stabilization

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

Global mean temp. increase at equilibrium

(ºC)

Year CO2

needs to peak

Year CO2 emissions

back at 2000 level

Reduction in 2050 CO2 emissions

compared to 2000

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60

710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85

855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower

stabilization levels

Characteristics of stabilization scenarios


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Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 for least-cost trajectoriesEstimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 for least-cost trajectories towards different long-term stabilization levelstowards different long-term stabilization levels

Mitigation costs in 2030Mitigation costs in 2030

< 0.12< 3Not available 445-535

<0.10.2 – 2.50.6 535-590

< 0.06-0.6 – 1.20.2 590-710

Reduction of average annual

GDP growth rates(percentage points)

Range of GDP reduction

(%)

MedianGDP

reduction(%)

Trajectories towards

stabilization levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP


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TTIllustration of cost numbersIllustration of cost numbers

GDP

TimeCurrent ~1 Year

GDP without mitigation 80%

GDP with stringent mitigation

77%

2030


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MitigationMitigation

and and

adaptationadaptation


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Carbon-price signal and investments

• There is a significant mitigation potential by 2030 and beyond at costs<$100/tCO2

• For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices shouldreach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030 to achieve shift into low carbontechnologies

• Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment, althoughthe net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5-10%

• “Upfront” investments reduce longer-term mitigation costs andincrease potentials

• Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030)will have long term impacts on GHG emissions


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Economic mitigation potential could offset

projectedgrowth or reduce emissions below current levels

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes

In 2030


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Beyond adaptationBeyond adaptation

Adaptation to climate change is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions

However:• Adaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impacts

of climate change

• The costs of adaptation and impacts will increase as global

temperatures increase

Making development more sustainable can enhance both mitigative and adaptive capacity, and reduce emissions and vulnerability to climate change


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There are many There are many

reasons for hopereasons for hope


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Reasons for hopeReasons for hope

The lessons learnt are:

Human activities (mainly the use of fossil fuels, deforestation and agriculture) contribute to climate change

The impacts of climate change are a threat

But there is no fatality

We have undertaken the appropriate steps to solve this problem and its negative consequences

HOW?


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Tackling Tackling

climate change:climate change:

thethe

institutionsinstitutions


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The world is becoming wiserThe world is becoming wiser

In fact, climate change – like other environmental issues – is dealt with rationally by governments and the whole society:

Detection science (evaluation of the threats and evaluation of the threats and proposal of solutions)proposal of solutions)

Information science, media, authorities, NGOs

Prevention reduction of GHG emissions, adaptation

Cooperation UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and GEF

Implementation national and international measures

This approach avoids / minimises the conflicts resulting from the impacts of climate change


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Strong international cooperation mechanisms Strong international cooperation mechanisms have been established to tackle climate changehave been established to tackle climate change

The international community has established The international community has established international international governance mechanismsgovernance mechanisms to address the threat of global climate to address the threat of global climate change:change:

Scientific bodiesScientific bodies IPCCIPCC ConferencesConferencesConsultation mechanismsConsultation mechanisms

Political agreements Political agreements Financial mechanismsFinancial mechanisms GEFGEF

Its has elaborated and extended Its has elaborated and extended international environmental lawinternational environmental law::

International treatiesInternational treaties UNFCCC, Kyoto ProtocolUNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol


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The two international treaties for climate changeThe two international treaties for climate change

• The The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)(UNFCCC) was adopted at the «Earth Summit» in 1992 in Rio was adopted at the «Earth Summit» in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro. It entered into force in 1994. It has been ratified by de Janeiro. It entered into force in 1994. It has been ratified by 189 Parties (2007)189 Parties (2007)

• In 1997 the Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the In 1997 the Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Kyoto ProtocolProtocol. I has been ratified by 168 Parties (2007). I has been ratified by 168 Parties (2007)

• The Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol shares the Convention’s objective, shares the Convention’s objective, principles and institutions, but significantly strengthens the principles and institutions, but significantly strengthens the Convention by Convention by committing industrialised countries to committing industrialised countries to individual, legally-binding targets to limit or reduce their individual, legally-binding targets to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissionsgreenhouse gas emissions

• The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005


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Objective of the Climate ConventionObjective of the Climate Convention

The ultimate objective of the Convention is stated in its Art. 2: The ultimate objective of the Convention is stated in its Art. 2:

« … to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions « … to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Conventionof the Convention, , stabilization of greenhouse gas stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate climate systemsystem. Such a level should be achieved within a . Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate to climate change, to ensure that food production is not change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and threatened and to enable economic development to proceed to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable in a sustainable manner.» manner.»


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Main features of the Kyoto ProtocolMain features of the Kyoto Protocol

• Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectivesQuantified emission limitation and reduction objectives for the for the greenhouse gas for each industrialised country (aggregated greenhouse gas for each industrialised country (aggregated reduction for the Annex I Parties: - 5.2 % in 2008-reduction for the Annex I Parties: - 5.2 % in 2008- 2012 2012 compared to 1990 levels)compared to 1990 levels)

• Six gasesSix gases (« basket »): CO(« basket »): CO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O, HFC, PFC, SFO, HFC, PFC, SF66

• FlexibilityFlexibility: carbon sinks and flexible mechanism : carbon sinks and flexible mechanism ((Joint Joint Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism, Emissions Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism, Emissions TradingTrading))

• ReportingReporting process on: national policies and measures, and process on: national policies and measures, and emissionsemissions

• Compliance mechanismCompliance mechanism with penalty in case of non-compliancewith penalty in case of non-compliance


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Principles and approachPrinciples and approach

• TheThe precautionary principleprecautionary principle and the ofand the of common but common but differentiated responsibilitiesdifferentiated responsibilities principle are the basis for the principle are the basis for the cooperation under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol: cooperation under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol:

developed countries recognise their developed countries recognise their responsibilities in past and current GHG emissions and responsibilities in past and current GHG emissions and accept to take the lead in combating climate changeaccept to take the lead in combating climate change

developing countries are allowed to increase developing countries are allowed to increase their emissions for development purposestheir emissions for development purposes

• MitigationMitigation andand adaptationadaptation are the two approaches to tackle are the two approaches to tackle climate change threatsclimate change threats • Financial and technical assistanceFinancial and technical assistance is provided to developing is provided to developing countries countries


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The GEFThe GEF

The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was established in 1991The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was established in 1991

ItIt helps developing countries fund projects and programshelps developing countries fund projects and programs that that protect the global environment, in particular climateprotect the global environment, in particular climate

As the financial mechanism of the Climate Convention, GEF As the financial mechanism of the Climate Convention, GEF allocates and disburses aboutallocates and disburses about USD 250 million dollars per year in USD 250 million dollars per year in projectsprojects in energy efficiency, renewable energies, and sustainable in energy efficiency, renewable energies, and sustainable transportationtransportation

Moreover, it managesMoreover, it manages two special funds two special funds under the UNFCCC – the under the UNFCCC – the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund – as well the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto ProtocolFund – as well the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol


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High level representation at the COPs and SBs sessionsHigh level representation at the COPs and SBs sessions

Source: Benito Müller, 2001Source: Benito Müller, 2001

H. E. Mr. Moritz LeuenbergerPresident of the Swiss ConfederationUNFCCC COP 7 Marrakech, 2001


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ConclusionsConclusions

1.1. Fossils fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, synthetic Fossils fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, synthetic gases: human activities influence the climate systemgases: human activities influence the climate system

2.2. Global warming is projected to impact the environment but Global warming is projected to impact the environment but also to have economic and social consequencesalso to have economic and social consequences

3.3. There will be more losers than winners, in particular in There will be more losers than winners, in particular in developing countries and among the poors developing countries and among the poors

4.4. These consequences may disrupt social and economic These consequences may disrupt social and economic structures and entail security issuesstructures and entail security issues

5.5. To tackle climate change, the international community has To tackle climate change, the international community has established international institutions and undertaken national established international institutions and undertaken national and international actions for mitigation and adaptationand international actions for mitigation and adaptation


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Web SitesWeb Sites

http://www.unfccc.inthttp://www.unfccc.int:: Climate Convention and Kyoto ProtocolClimate Convention and Kyoto Protocol

http://www.ipcc.chhttp://www.ipcc.ch: : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Change

http://www.environnement-suisse.chhttp://www.environnement-suisse.ch: :

Swiss Federal Office for the Environment Swiss Federal Office for the Environment

http://www.iisd.cahttp://www.iisd.ca: : V Verbatimerbatim reports on the negotiations reports on the negotiations


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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

Glaciar Perito Moreno (Argentina)Glaciar Perito Moreno (Argentina)

Copyright http://www.tekel.com.ar/Canales/Tur/S2.a.htm Copyright http://www.tekel.com.ar/Canales/Tur/S2.a.htm

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