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Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016

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Page 1: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Interim statement Q1/2016

CEO Roeland Baan

CFO Reinhard Florey

April 27, 2016

Page 2: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Disclaimer

This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, statements that are not historical facts

but forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on the current plans,

estimates and expectations of Outokumpu’s management based on information available to it on

the date of this presentation. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and

uncertainties, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not

occur in the future. Future results of Outokumpu may vary from the results expressed in, or implied

by, the forward-looking statements, possibly to a material degree. Factors that could cause such

differences include, but are not limited to, the risks described in the "Risk factors" section of

Outokumpu’s latest Annual Report and the risks detailed in Outokumpu’s most recent financial

results announcement. Outokumpu undertakes no obligation to update this presentation after the

date hereof.

2

Page 3: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

3

Today‘s attendees of Outokumpu

Reinhard Florey

CFO

Johanna Henttonen

SVP

Investor Relations

Roeland Baan

CEO

Page 4: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Q1 in line with our expectations

• Delivery volumes up by 6%

• Operating cash flow EUR 74 million

• Net debt to below 1.6 billion

• Lower base prices

• Scrap costs increased

• Total of EUR 15 million write-downs

of trade receivables in Europe and

aged inventories in Americas

• Lower ferrochrome price

4

Underlying EBIT, EUR million

2

-25

-67

-11

-20

Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16

Due to change in D&A in Q4/15, the underlying EBIT’s of prior quarters are not comparable

Page 5: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

~1% demand growth expected for 2016

5

Americas

+5% +5%

-2% -1% +1% +4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

Europe

0%

+4%

+1% -2%

+1% +2%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

APAC

+9% +7%

+2% +2% +4% +4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

Global

+7% +6%

+2% +1%

+3% +4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

USA

+6% +6%

-2% -1% +4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

0%

OTHER AMERICAS

+3% +4%

-5% -1%

+4% +4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

OTHER EMEA

+8%

-4% -5% +1%

+4% +4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

CHINA +12%

+8%

+4% +3%

+4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

+4%

OTHER APAC

+4% +6%

-1% +1% +3%

+4%

13 14 15 16f 17f 18f

Data source: SMR, April 2016

Real demand for total stainless steel (rolled & forged products, excl. 13Cr tubes,

profiles)

Page 6: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

6

European base prices resilient

European base prices1, EUR/tonne Third-country imports2 into Europe, 1,000 tonnes

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Germany

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

From Asia

From rest of world

Import penetration

Import

penetration

decreased slightly

to 24.4% in Q1

1. 2mm sheet cold rolled 304 grade. CRU April 2016

2. Monthly average. SMR CR real demand February 2016. Source: Eurofer, March 2016

Page 7: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

7

American base prices turning the corner

US base prices1, USD/tonne Third-country imports2 into the US, 1,000 tonnes

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

From Asia

From rest of world

Import penetration

1. 2mm sheet cold rolled 304 grade. CRU April 2016

2. Monthly average. SMR CR real demand February 2016. Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, March 2016

Import

penetration

decreased to

20.7% in Jan-Feb

Page 8: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

8

13-year low in nickel price reflected in

stainless transaction prices

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Europe USA China

Nickel price, USD/tonne Transaction prices 304 stainless, USD/tonne

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Page 9: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Q1 key financials

9

Key figures Q1/16 Q4/15 2015

Stainless steel deliveries, 1,000 tonnes 610 574 2,381

Sales, EUR million 1,386 1,435 6,384

Underlying EBITDA, EUR million 38 50 196

Underlying EBIT, EUR million -20 -11 -101

EBIT, EUR million -12 341 228

Net result, EUR million -41 308 86

Operating cash flow, EUR million 74 2 -34

Net debt, EUR million 1,551 1,610 1,610

Capital expenditure, EUR million 32 65 154

Personnel at the end of the period 10,920 11,002 11,002

Deliveries grew in both

Europe and Americas

Sales down by 3.4%

driven by lower prices

Positives from higher

deliveries offset by

downward pressure on

prices, increase in scrap

costs and write-downs

Positive operating cash

flow of EUR 74 million

Page 10: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Updates in Outokumpu financial reporting

Reporting practices

• Interim statements in Q1

and Q3

• Q2 and Q4/FY reports

continue to follow IAS 34

format

Underlying EBIT as main

profitability measure

• Shows best underlying

profit drivers and

operational performance

• Adjustments to IFRS EBIT:

• Material income and

expense items earlier

labelled as

non-recurring items

• Raw material related

inventory gains/losses

and metal derivative

gains/losses

New business areas

• Q1 reported according to

new BA structure:

• Europe

• Americas

• Long Products

• Restated quarterly data

available for past two

years

10

Page 11: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

• End-demand stable, distributor demand

subdued

• Prices under pressure

• Operating environment for plate

products subdued

• Ferrochrome production 132,000

tonnes

• EMEA restructuring program savings of

EUR 15 million

• Adjustments: • EUR -8 million related to earlier site

closures

• EUR -2 million net effect of raw

material-related inventory and metal

derivative gains/losses

• Write-down of EUR 12 million trade

receivable

Europe’s performance stronger

11

Europe deliveries,

1,000 tonnes

Europe underlying EBIT,

EUR million

Deliveries up by 10.5%

reflecting seasonal pick-up

Stronger performance as a

result of higher deliveries and

lower costs, partly offset by

lower base prices and one-offs

410 413

375 381

421

27

41

-15

33

42

Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16

Due to change in D&A in Q4/15, the underlying EBIT’s of prior quarters are not comparable

Page 12: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Americas’ market dynamic started to improve

12

Americas deliveries,

1,000 tonnes

Americas underlying EBIT,

EUR million

• Apparent consumption up by 4.8%

• Antidumping and countervailing duty

petitions against Chinese importers

filed in February

• Announced price increases expected to

have a gradual positive impact from

April onwards

• Base prices in deliveries stable vs Q4

• Adjustments: • EUR 25 million insurance

compensation

• EUR -8 million net effect of raw

material-related inventory and metal

derivative gains/losses

• EUR 3 million aged inventory write

down at Calvert Deliveries increased by 11.8%

to all–time quarterly record

Underlying EBIT still at heavy

loss. Benefits from higher

volumes and better utilization

as well as implemented cost

improvements were offset by

price pressure

133

117

139 144

161

-28

-50 -44

-41 -43

Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16

Due to change in D&A in Q4/15, the underlying EBIT’s of prior quarters are not comparable

Page 13: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Long Products’ prices still under pressure

13

Long Products deliveries,

1,000 tonnes

Long Products underlying EBIT,

EUR million

• Operating environment overall weak

particularly in the US

• Prices under pressure in both Europe

and the US • low nickel prices

• subdued Oil & Gas -related project

activity

• import pressure

• tight competition

• Gradual pick up in order intake

• Net effect of raw material-related

inventory and metal derivative

gains/losses was EUR -3 million

Deliveries up by 19% due to

higher internal slab deliveries

Weaker underlying EBIT as a

result of low prices and a weak

product mix

52

62 58

42

50 3

4 3

-3 -4

Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16

Due to change in D&A in Q4/15, the underlying EBIT’s of prior quarters are not comparable

Page 14: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Positive operating cash flow

14

EUR million Q1/16 Q4/15 2015

Net cash from operating

activities 74 2 -34

Net cash from investing

activities -17 319 239

Free cash flow 57 321 205

Cash and cash

equivalents 166 186 186

• Change in working capital of

EUR 58 million

• Financing costs EUR 34 million

• Overall liquidity reserves EUR

900 million

• Net debt decreased by EUR 59

million

Page 15: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Net debt decreased to below EUR 1.6 billion

15

Net debt and gearing

3.56

1.97 1.61 1.55

188%

93%

69% 70%

Net debt, EUR billion Gearing, %

2013 2014 2015 Q1/16

Debt maturity profile, EUR million

Current debt Non-current debt Unutilized facilities

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+

Page 16: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

16

Real demand expected to remain

sequentially flat in Q2

EMEA total stainless steel real demand, 1,000 tonnes Americas total stainless steel real demand, 1,000 tonnes

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

Q12015

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12016

Q2

SMR Jun'15 SMR Sep'15SMR Feb'16 SMR Apr'16

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Q12015

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12016

Q2

SMR Jun'15 SMR Sep'15

SMR Feb'16 SMR Apr'16

1) Total stainless = rolled & forged products, excl. 13Cr tubes, profiles

+2% -2%

Page 17: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

17

Business and financial outlook for Q2/2016

Outokumpu estimates for Q2

Delivery volumes to be sequentially flat

Underlying EBIT to remain at a similar

level as in Q1

Results will be burdened by weaker

performance of the ferrochrome

business driven by low ferrochrome

price and US dollar

With current prices, net impact of raw

material-related inventory and metal

derivative gains/losses on profitability is

expected to be marginal, if any.

Market commentary

In Europe

• Underlying demand in key sectors

outside of Oil & Gas expected to

continue healthy

• Stock levels among distributors above

historical averages

In Americas

• Stock levels among distributors below

historical averages

• Price increases have been announced

• Chinese imports are being addressed

with antidumping investigation

This outlook reflects the current scope of operations.

Page 18: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Improving competitiveness and financial

performance

To be the

best value

creator in

stainless steel by

2020 through

customer orientation and

efficiency.

PORTFOLIO AMERICAS MANUFACTURING

EXCELLENCY

WORLD CLASS

SUPPLY CHAIN SAFETY

The best value in the industry

for customers,

shareholders and employees

through:

HIGH PERFORMING

ORGANIZATION

18

EBIT

EUR 500 million 1

Gearing

<35% 3

ROCE

12% 2

Financial targets for 2020

Page 19: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

19

Immediate actions for a step change in cost

and competitive position

SG&A cost reduction

EUR 100 million by

the end of 2017

NWC reduction

At least EUR 200

million by end of 2016

1

2

3

New organizational

set-up

Net debt

EUR 1.2 billion

by the end of

2017

Page 20: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

To be the best value creator in stainless steel by 2020 through customer orientation and efficiency.

20

Our new vision

Page 21: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Appendix

21

Page 22: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Balance sheet

Assets (MEUR) 31.3.16 31.12.15

Non-current assets

Intangible assets 496 498

Property, plant and equipment 2,924 3,005

Investments in associated companies

and joint ventures 62 63

Other financial assets 45 41

Deferred tax assets 22 16

Defined benefit plan assets 47 35

Trade and other receivables 36 40

Total non-current assets 3,632 3,698

Current assets

Inventories 1,147 1,251

Other financial assets 45 53

Trade and other receivables 694 686

Cash and cash equivalents 166 186

Total current assets 2,052 2,177

Total assets 5,684 5,874

22

Page 23: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Balance sheet

Equity and liabilities (MEUR) 31.3.16 31.12.15

Total equity 2,229 2,329

Non-current liabilities

Non-current debt 870 1,249

Other financial liabilities 9 9

Deferred tax liabilities 16 16

Defined benefit and other long-term

employee benefit obligations 388 369

Provisions 111 113

Trade and other payables 48 48

Total non-current liabilities 1,442 1,805

Current liabilities

Current debt 848 547

Other financial liabilities 38 50

Provisions 17 23

Trade and other payables 1,111 1,121

Total current liabilities 2,014 1,741

Total equity and liabilities 5,684 5,874

23

Page 24: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Cost analysis

• Raw materials account for around 60% of

the total operative costs of the Group

• Energy and other consumables account for

10-15% of the total operative costs

• Personnel expenses 10-15% of the total

operative costs

• Other cost of sales includes e.g. freight,

maintenance and rents and leases

Operative cost components in 2015 Comments

Raw materials

Personnel

Energy and consumables

Other cost of sales

SG&A (excl. personnel and D&A)

D&A total

24

Page 25: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

25

Headcount reductions

13,327

9,300

766

436

1,123

82 1,620

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

Total headcount reduction

Personnel per business area at the end Q1/16

7,709

2,263

656 292

Europe

Americas

Long Products

Other operations

Page 26: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

26

Balanced customer base across industries

End-customers

15%

17%

5% 4%

17%

22%

20%

Consumer goods & medical

Automotive

Architecture, building & construction

Chemical, petrochem. and energy

Metal processing & tubes

Heavy industries

Other

56%

44%

Distributors

Figures for full year 2015

Page 27: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Austenitic

(CrNi)

56%

Austenitic

(CrNiMo)

16%

Ferritic

21%

Duplex

4%

Other

3%

27

Broadest product portfolio across stainless steel

Deliveries by product grade in 2015 Outokumpu product forms

Ferrochrome Slab Quarto plate

Hot rolled

black coil

Hot and cold rolled

white coil Precision strip

Cast semis Rolled and

forged billet Bar

Rebar Wire rod Welded pipe

Page 28: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

28

Fully integrated production asset base

Europe Americas Long Products Total

Tornio Finland

Avesta Sweden

Krefeld Germany

Degerfors Sweden

Calvert USA

Mexinox Mexico

New Castle USA

Sheffield UK

Richburg USA

Degerfors Sweden

Wildwood USA

Melting 1,450 450 900 450 3,250

Hot rolling 1,450 900 870 3,220

Cold rolling 900 250 500 150 500 250 60 25 40 40 20 2,735

Page 29: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

29

Low capacity utilization in China, on

healthier level in Europe and Americas

Source: SMR Real Demand Feb 2016; CRU Capacity Feb 2016

* Using 2015 imports share as forecast for 2016-2019

Europe Americas

1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8

0.9 0.9

0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 2.3

2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7

2.8 2.8

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

f

20

17

f

20

18

f

20

19

f

Demand covered by Rest Americas

Demand covered by USA

CRU Capacity

2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9

0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0

3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9

4.9 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

f

20

17

f

20

18

f

20

19

f

Demand covered by Imports*

Demand covered by EU Mills

CRU Capacity

[CR, Mtonnes] [CR, Mtonnes]

Asia

10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15

5

5 6 6 6

6 6

7 15

17 18 18 19

20 21

21

18

19

22

23

24 25 25 25

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

f

20

16

f

20

17

f

20

18

f

20

19

f

Demand covered by Rest Asia

Demand covered by China

CRU Capacity

[CR, Mtonnes]

Page 30: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

30

Unbalanced trade flows

Source: Foreign trade statistics March 2016

CR in kt,

Factors supporting exports:

Exchange rate benefits

Cost advantages

Government subsidies

Different regulations

330

515

125

92

110

38

EU antidumping case

Indonesian nickel ore ban

Possible US antidumping

Game changers:

Page 31: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

,0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

[Ktonnes] [USD/t] LME stocks (rhs)

LME cash price (lhs)

31

Nickel price development

• Nickel prices slumped to 13-year lows below 8,000 USD/tonne in early February on the back of increasing fears over global

economy and subdued demand.

• In early March prices recovered to around 9,400 USD/tonne on improving sentiment among commodities general, but lost

most of the gains and ended the quarter at 8,280 USD/tonne, 4.4% lower than in the beginning of the quarter.

• The average price of the quarter of 8,504 USD/tonne, was 9.6% lower than 9,412 USD/tonne in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Update: April 8, 2016

Page 32: Interim statement Q1/2016 - Outokumpu...Interim statement Q1/2016 CEO Roeland Baan CFO Reinhard Florey April 27, 2016 . Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain,

Johanna Henttonen

Senior Vice President – Investor Relations

Phone +358 9 421 3804

Mobile +358 40 5300 778

E-mail: [email protected]

Tommi Järvenpää

Manager – Investor Relations

Phone +358 9 421 3466

Mobile +358 40 576 0288

E-mail: [email protected]

Päivi Laajaranta

Executive Assistant

Phone +358 9 421 4070

Mobile +358 400 607 424

E-mail: [email protected]

For more information, call Outokumpu Investor

Relations or visit www.outokumpu.com/investors

32