interim results 2013 - marston's plc · 2017. 12. 19. · embedded growth for h2. 13. 12. 11....

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Interim Results 2013

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Page 1: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Interim Results 2013

Page 2: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Highlights

Confident in meeting full year expectations • Embedded management actions • Good start to H2

Underlying performance remains strong • New-builds driving Destination and Premium growth • Revenue growth in Brewing • Q2 snow has impacted trading

Interim dividend up 4.5%

Board and senior management changes • Roger Devlin appointed Chairman from 1 September • Stephen Oliver to retire, succeeded internally by Richard Westwood

Clear strategy, continued progress Page 2

Page 3: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Andrew Andrea CFO

Page 4: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Financial summary

26 weeks 2013 2012 vs. LY

Revenue £358.1m £342.1m +5 %

Operating Profit* £66.6m £67.6m (1)%

Interest* £(39.0)m £(34.1)m (14)%

Profit before tax* £27.6m £33.5m (18)%

Adjusted EPS* 3.8p 4.7p (19)%

Interim Dividend 2.3p 2.2p +5 %

* before exceptional items

Dividend growth reflects full year confidence Page 4

Page 5: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Embedded growth for H2

13

12

11

10

9

8Operating

7profit £m 6

5

4

3

2

1

0

£3m £12m

£2m

£3m

Operating profit

£4.5m less interest £(1.5)m

£4m

2012 New-builds 2013 New-builds Cost savings Week 53 Total

Clear management actions to grow in second half Page 5

Page 6: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Pub segmentation

H1 2013 Operating profit £m

No. of pubs

Average no. pubs

% of profit

% of pubs

Destination & Premium 24.2 339 334 36% 16%

Taverns 29.8 1,398 1,414 44% 66%

Leased 13.1 391 392 20% 18%

Total 67.1 2,128 2,140 100% 100%

Increasing proportion of direct control Page 6

Page 7: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

+7%

Destination and Premium – sales performance

LFL % Reported H1 excl. snow

Weeks 27-32

Weeks 1-32

Food 2 4 9 4

Drink (2) 2 3 (1)

Total - 3 6 1

2013 2012 YOY

Food mix 52% 50% +2%

Solid underlying performance Page 7

Page 8: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Destination and Premium profit

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

H1 2012

£22.1m

£2.0m

£0.5m (£0.2m) (£0.2m)

£24.2m

Operating profit £m

2012 New- 2013 New- Premium LFL Refurbishment H1 2013 builds builds Profit Closure

New-build performance strong, mitigates snow Page 8

Page 9: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Taverns profit

28

29

30

31

32

33

H1 2012 Franchise Managed and Tenanted LFL

Disposals H1 2013

£32.1m

£0.5m (£2.3m)

(£0.5m)

£29.8m

Operating profit £m

Lower managed and tenanted LFL partly offset by franchise growth Page 9

Page 10: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

2014 cost outlook

Drink Food Labour Utilities Drink Food Cost Menu Energy cost cost & Carbon Levy prices prices savings management usage

£2.0m

£1.5m

£1.5m

£2.0m

£1.5m

£1.0m

£1.0m+3%

+2-3%

£1.5m

+1%

<1%

£1.0m

Inflationary changes stable, less pressure to increase food prices Page 10

Page 11: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Continued market outperformance

Revenue and volume growth • Revenue up 12% • Ale volume up 8% • Strong growth in off-trade • Market share growth

Robust financial performance • Margins lower due to higher off-trade mix • Operating profit flat • Strong cash generation

2014 cost outlook • c.£1m of cost inflation • Mitigated through price and efficiencies

Revenue growth outperforming market Page 11

Page 12: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

H1 interest charges

30

32

34

36

38

40

H1 2012 2012 swap Securitised step-up Other H1 2013

£m

£39m

£2m

£2m £1m

£34m

62

58

62

59 57

56

Securitised Interest £m

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Short term increase in interest costs Page 12

Page 13: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Cashflow summary

£m H1 2013 H1 2012 Comments

Operating cashflow

Net interest

Pre-investment FCF

Organic capex

Disposals

Final dividend

FCF pre new-build

New-build

Net cashflow

69

(44)

25

(39)

18

(22)

(18)

(40)

(58)

75

(41)

34

(33)

23

(21)

2

(26)

(23)

Front-ended capex programme

£40-50m full year guidance

Evenly phased opening profile

FCF = Free cashflow

Phased capital programme to exploit H2 opportunity Page 13

Page 14: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

£108m long-term lease financing

Extend debt maturity 35-40 year term

Low cost of debt

Initial cash cost 5.10 - 5.65% P&L cost of debt c.6.8%

Freehold preference Freehold reverts at end of term

Flexible, efficient

No covenant reporting, asset substitution 6x EBITDA, less geared than traditional s&l

Key accounting difference: classified as debt because of freehold reversion

Benefits of sale and leaseback whilst retaining freehold Page 14

Page 15: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Finance structure

As at 30 March 2013 Total £m

Securitisation 954 Visible, consistent debt service profile

Bank 139 £257.5m facility to May 2016

Net debt excluding lease finance 1,093

Lease finance 101 35-40 year financing

Net debt 1,194

Flexible finance structure, 90% long dated maturity Page 15

Page 16: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Ralph Findlay CEO

Page 17: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Market dynamics

Consumer backdrop • Confidence remains weak, pay subdued • Positive – increased tax-free allowance

‘Flight to value’ offers opportunity for Marston’s • Established trend • Pubs well placed • Better quality + good service + price = consumers win

Government – mixed messages • HM Treasury getting the message • BIS ‘consultation’: ongoing intervention likely • Of growing interest : food – obesity, salt, calories

Well placed in current consumer environment Page 17

Page 18: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

-

Sustainable growth; increase ROC; reduce leverage Ta

rget

s St

rate

gyA

ctio

n

Pubs “The best pub around here”

Brewing “National distribution, local

appeal”

Format range Agreements

Simple structure

New build Pub standards

Disposals

‘F-Plan’ Value

Service

Free Trade growth

Local marketing

Category champions of premium ale Innovation

Operating Flexibility

Estate Development

Consumer Focus Localness Premium

Lfl sales Margin ROC

20-25 new pubs Disposals £30-

40m pa

Food sales Margin ROC

Increase FT account base Local brands outperform

market

Maintain market leader status Grow market

share

Consistent strategy maintained Page 18

Page 19: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

-

Pub segmentation

Destination & Premium Food sales mix 52%

Taverns Food sales mix 25% Leased

Destination – 2 value formats • Milestone, Two for One Premium • Pitcher & Piano , Revere

Community pubs • Franchise strategy • Flexible formats • Local engagement

Independent, individual • Distinctive pubs • Strong locations • Both food-led and drink-led

90% of growth capital 7% of growth capital 3% of growth capital

New build investment Revere expansion

Franchise conversion Turnover focused licensees

Developing partnership Improve engagement

Flexible operating model, consumer focused Page 19

Page 20: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

-

Destination – four ingredients

Service ‘Smile’

Technology Constant improvement

Consumer ‘F-Plan’

Independent research Competitor analysis

Focus groups

Value Food spend c.£6.30 Service standards

Food quality

Standards New builds

Refurbishments

Average sales per week £19k, profit per pub £230k Page 20

Page 21: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

New-build plans well established

2013 programme • Nine sites completed • 1st site in Scotland – Dunbar; Glasgow and Edinburgh Summer 2013 • Two lodges open – Chepstow, Aberystwyth • Turnover and returns strong • At least 20 projected for the full year

2010-2012 sites • Continue to perform well • LFL remain strong • Returns c.18%

Future pipeline • 20-25 sites per annum • Strong visibility for 2014-17

Current year plans on track, secure future pipeline Page 21

Page 22: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

New-build 2014 visibility

Two for One

Milestone Rotisserie

Milestone Carvery

Geographical split

• South East 6 • South West 6 • Scotland 4 • North 4 • Midlands 3

23

35% 9%

57%

National programmePage 22

Page 23: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Premium – 38 pubs

• 20 bars • Average turnover per week £23k • Expansion potential

• Four sites established • Initial signs encouraging • Further six sites identified

for 2014 investment

Improving the strength of our premium offerPage 23

Page 24: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Taverns: community pubs – new approach

Political Consumer Competition Economy

Stability Sustainability Profitability

Adding value = better experience for customers Page 24

Page 25: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Franchising - background

£13.4bn industry 91%* providing profitable businesses 90%* have satisfactory relations with their franchisor Franchisees feel they have a competitive advantage*

*Source: NatWest BFA Franchise Survey

Page 25 Minimal pub competition

Page 26: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Taverns: why franchise works

Buying power

Insight

Brand

DevelopmentInvestment

Resources

Systems

Franchisee

Consumer engagement

Local knowledge

FlexibilityMotivation

Rent N/ABeer prices N/ASimplicityAffordability Flexibility

A model which combines the best of managed and tenancy Page 26

Page 27: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Leased estate

391 Pubs Food orientated

Average Rent £40k Average EBITDA c.£80k

Smaller, high quality estate Page 27

Page 28: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Evolution of leased relationship

Smaller focused estate

Being a betterretail partner

• Industry engagement scores correlated to size of estate

• Team dedicated to leased model only

• Identify investment opportunities • Aligned with lessee requirements • Develop operational skills

• Capital investment in pubs• Revenue investment in products Growing sales

Better partner - true engagement Page 28

Page 29: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

BIS Review

Marston’s will have fewer tenancies • Conversion to franchise model

Smaller, high quality leased estate • Emphasis on service, support and relationships • Long-term commitment to fair, sustainable rents and transparency • Cellar monitoring: not required in the medium term

Adjudicator/statutory code – little concern to good landlords • We are cautious about interference in rent setting/the tie

Economic impact on Marston’s is limited Page 29

Page 30: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Localness

Localness very relevant to consumers* Two out of three beer drinkers want local and regional beers

Local beers

2013 vs 2009 Free Trade

+25% +10% +43% Accounts Cask ale +17% +14%

* Source: RBD Research

Local strategy achieving growth in a declining market Page 30

Page 31: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Premium

Page 31 Repositioned as a higher quality business

% Volume change

£7 million bottling line investment H2 2013

Other 23%

External beer sales

Std Ale 31%

Prem Ale 46%

Std Ale 28%

Prem Ale 52%

Other 20%

2009

2013

2013 vs 2009

19%

83%

61%

0%

90%

Premium Ale Bottled ale Export

Page 32: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Summary

Confidence in full year out-turn • New-build momentum • Cost reduction • Solid start to H2

Strategic plans well advanced • New-builds • Franchise development • Local and premium beers

Dividend increase reflects confidence

The right strategy Page 32

Page 33: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Appendices

Page 34: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Pub numbers

Destination and Premium

Taverns Leased Total

2012 Opening 303 1,452 393 2,148

New-Build Additions 25 25

Disposals (23) (23)

2013 Opening 328 1,429 393 2,150

New-Build Additions 9 9

Transfers 2 (2) 0

Disposals (31) (31)

2013 H1 339 1,398 391 2,128

2013 Average Numbers 334 1,414 392 2,140

Page 34

Page 35: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Average number of shares in 2013 569.2m

Number of shares in issue as at 30 March 2013 569.3m

Additional dilutive number of shares 6.8m

Forecast Forecast 2013 2014

Tax rate 21% 21 - 23%

Capex £120 - 130m £120 - 130m

Disposal proceeds c.£40 - 50m c.£40 - 50m

Page 35

Page 36: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Securitisation as at 30 March 2013

Securitisation results £m Actual

Gross debt outstanding as at 30 March 2013 1,007.3

EBITDA 128.6

Free cashflow (FCF) 117.8

Debt service (DSCR) 80.6

Financial covenants Actual Covenant

FCF : DSCR 1.5x >1.1x

EBITDA : DSCR 1.6x >1.5x

Net worth £577m £90m

Page 36

Page 37: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Securitised debt profile

Tranche Type Principal outstanding

at 30 March 2013

Step-up Date

Final Maturity Date

A1 Floating £139.4m July 2012 2020

A2 Fixed/Floating £214.0m July 2019 2027

A3 Fixed/Floating £200.0m April 2027 2032

A4 Floating £218.9m October 2012 2031

AB1 Floating £80.0m October 2012 2035

B Fixed/Floating £155.0m July 2019 2035

Total £1,007.3m

Page 37

Page 38: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

Securitisation profile

Page 38

Page 39: Interim Results 2013 - Marston's PLC · 2017. 12. 19. · Embedded growth for H2. 13. 12. 11. 10 9 8. Operating . profit 7 £m . 6 5 4 3 2 1 0. £3m £12m . £2m . £3m . Operating

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