Integrating Urban Models with Infrastructure and Environmental Systems

Steven P. French, Ph.D., FAICPAssociate Dean for Research

Professor of City and Regional PlanningDirector of Center for Geographic Information Systems

College of ArchitectureGeorgia Institute of Technology

Atlanta, GA 30332-0695

Presentation toDepartment of Geography and Earth Sciences

University of North Carolina-CharlotteJanuary 21, 2011

Background

Human population and environmental impact are increasing exponentially

• Steffen, W.; Sanderson, A.; Tyson, P. D., et al. Global Change and the Earth Systems: A Planet Under Pressure; Springer-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany, 2005

GreatAcceleration:

HumanActivities

• Steffen, W.; Sanderson, A.; Tyson, P. D., et al. Global Change and the Earth Systems: A Planet Under Pressure; Springer-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany, 2005

Environmentaland

EcologicalConsequence

s

All units are tons per day for a city of 1 million residents. Rectangle size is proportional to the mass. Suspended Solids are in Sewage. (Decker et al.)

Urban Metabolism

Problem

To design the anthrosphere to exist within the means of nature. That is, to use amount of resources that nature provides and generate waste nature can assimilate without overwhelming natural systems.

John Crittenden, 2010

7

• This is the first urban century

• A majority of the world’s population lives in cities

• Human impact on the environment is largely mediated through urban infrastructure systems

• The amount of urban infrastructure worldwide will double in the next 35 years

Urbanization

Premise

Considering infrastructure systems holistically creates a wider and more sustainable set of possible solutions than designing each system separately.

Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station

Atlantic Steel

138 acre steel mill

Founded in late1800s

Closed in 1990s

(Photo Courtesy of EPA)

Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station

1997

Abandoned Brownfield

Adjacent to Midtown Atlanta

No access to surrounding development

Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station

1997

Jacoby proposes redevelopment

Atlanta in nonconformity under Clean Air Act

Moratorium on Federal highway spending

Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station

Comparative Analysis

Analysis of travel demand and air pollution in four locations

Intown location performed best

EPA Project XL to allow

17th Street bridge

Source: Transportation and Environmental Analysis of the Atlantic Steel Development Proposal, EPA (1999) (http://www.epa.gov/projectxl/atlantic/index.htm)

Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station

Today17th Street Bridge built

Mixed Use Development

30,000 employees,10,000 residents

12 acres of public space

Less traffic and air pollution

Cleaned up brownfield site

Improved tax base

Vancouver Stormwater

Vancouver, BC had a combined sewer-stormwater system. Estimated cost to separate - $4B

Rather than separating pipes, the city daylighted the stormwater system and created open space

Open space increased the attractiveness of adjacent properties

Created an increase of $400M income in increased

tax revenue due to increase property values

Biofuels and Green House Gas

Current biofuels policies illustrate how ignoring a systems approach when dealing with complex systems produce unintended consequences-

• Food price spikes• Increased land is converted to agricultural production• Increased fertilizer use• Increase in N2O from fertilizers

N2O is 300 times more potent than CO2

as a GHG and lasts longer

Suboptimal Solutions

It appears that optimizing individual infrastructure systems produces suboptimal solutions at the metropolitan level and above.

Infrastructure systems are currently designed and operated as separate stovepipes.

Solutions typically seek to optimize performance within a single system.

Complex interactions among systems are largely ignored.

Most models do not consider long term sustainability

Current Situation

Metamodel Approach

To develop an integrated suite of models that can estimate the interaction among infrastructure systems and their relationship with the natural environment and social and economic systems.

A Metamodel will be designed to analyze alternative development scenarios at the regional scale, to evaluate infrastructure investments and to analyze proposed development projects.

This Metamodel will enable decision makers to envision and create more sustainable and resilient infrastructure solutions.

• Exogenous social and economic systems determine the amount and type of population and employment.

• The urban growth model estimates the future amount and locations of population, employment, and land uses.

• This produces the demand for services from the infrastructure system models by time and location.

• The infrastructure models estimate the resources required and the waste generated to meet the service demands of the urban area using various technologies.

Metamodel Design

• We believe that the best way to integrate urban infrastructure and environmental models is a loosely coupled set of domain specific models to create an overall systems model

• Must define key model interactions and interdependencies, data exchanges and complex, nonlinear relationships.

• The urban growth model should serve as the driver for the other models

Metamodel Development

Water Supply

Waste Water

Stormwater

Urban Growth

Transpor-tation

Energy

Supply

Infrastructure Systems Models

System

Integration

Framework

Water Supply

Waste Water

Stormwater

Urban Growth

Trans-portation

Energy

Supply

Infrastructure Systems Models

Modeling a System of Systems

Facility Aging

Demographic Changes

Natural Hazards

Fiscal ConstraintsClimate Change

TechnologicalHazards

Natural Environment SystemsAIR | WATER | HABITAT | LAND | MINERAL RESOURCES

Social and Economic Systems INCOME | HEALTH | EQUITY | ETHICS | SOCIAL STRUCTURE | POLICY

System

Integration

Framework

Water Supply

Waste Water

Storm

Water

Urban Growth

Trans-

portation

Energy

Supply

Urban Growth Model

Urban growth model for the 13-county Atlanta metro area (current population ~ 5 million)

Vector GIS-based model that allocates future land use to small areas

Allocates exogenously-determined housing and employment totals based on the suitability

Uniform Analysis Zones

Intersecting all Land Suitability Layers produces UAZs UAZ is the largest polygon that has a constant set of suitability factors

Uniform Analysis Zones

Uniform Analysis Zones

Uniform Analysis Zones

Importance factor X suitability produces a weighted suitability score for each UAZ

Housing and Employment are allocated to UAZs in order of their suitability

Allocation Scheme

Development Suitability Factors

Floodplain

HighwayProximity

Park Land

Freeway Exit Proximity

SewerService

Employment Centers

Employees /Acre

2004

2004

Land Use

2010

2010

2015

20152020

20202025

20252030

2030

Business as Usual Scenario

Employees /Acre

Land Use

2004

20042010

20102015

20152020

20202025

20252030

2030

Steve French

Compact Growth Scenario

Testing additional suitability rankings

Calibrating to past growth and with other forecasts

Including more detailed land use types

Integrating with water and electricity models

Ongoing Model Development

WaterSupply

ElectricPower

Urban Growth

Not only do the infrastructure models interact withurban growth, but they must interact with each other.

System Interactions

Model Inputs and Outputs

Urban Growth Model

InputsEconomic DemandTransport AccessEnvironmental Constraints

OutputsLand UseOpen SpacePopulation Employment by Location

Model Inputs and Outputs

Water Supply Model

InputsSurface/Ground Quantity & QualityPumpingTreatment andDistribution Technologies

OutputsQuantity by Location

Model Inputs and Outputs

Electric Power Model

InputsGenerationTransmissionDistribution Technologies

OutputsPower by Location

38

Model Inputs and Outputs

Electric Power Model

InputsDemandFuelWaterGenerationTransmissionDistribution Technologies

OutputsPower by Location

Water Supply Model

InputsDemandSurface/Ground Quantity & QualityPumpingTreatmentDistribution Technologies

Outputs Water by Location

Urban Growth Model

InputsEconomic DemandTransport AccessLand PriceEnvironmental Constraints

OutputsLand UseOpen SpacePopulation Employment by Location

Conclusions

An integrated model of infrastructure systems can be a powerful tool to explore and develop more sustainable urban areas.

The infrastructure models should be driven by an urban growth model.

An integrated analysis tool should consist of a loosely coupled set of domain specific models linked by well defined input and output requirements.

This understanding is a necessary, but not sufficient basis for more informed decision making and policy choices.

Remaining Challenges

Understanding and modeling complexity and interactions among infrastructure systems

Building models that are useful and meaningful to decision-makers

Resolving differences in geographic resolution and temporal scale among different models

Questions?

High Level Architecture

• The High Level Architecture is an example of an approach for realizing distributed simulations

• HLA Rules define general principles that pervade the entire architecture

• HLA Interface Specification defines a set of run-time services to support distributed simulations

• Data distribution is based on a publication / subscription mechanism

High Level Architecture (HLA)

• based on a composable “system of systems” approach– no single simulation can satisfy all user needs– support interoperability and reuse among DoD simulations

• federations of simulations (federates)– pure software simulations– human-in-the-loop simulations (virtual simulators)– live components (e.g., instrumented weapon systems)

The HLA consists of• Rules that simulations (federates) must follow to achieve proper

interaction during a federation execution• Object Model Template (OMT) defines the format for specifying the set

of common objects used by a federation (federation object model), their attributes, and relationships among them

• Interface Specification (IFSpec) provides interface to the Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI), that ties together federates during model execution

An HLA Federation

PassiveData

ViewersSimulations

Interfacesto Live

Components

Interface Specification

Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI)

Federates

Process for Creating a Federation

ExecuteFederation

andPrepareResults

6

DevelopFederationConceptual

Model

2

DesignFederation

3Develop

Federation

4

DefineFederationObjectives

1

AvailableResources

ProgramObjectives

FederationObjectivesStatement

Federation Requirements

FederationConceptualModel

FederationScenario

Initial PlanningDocuments

Allocated Federates

FederationDevelopmentPlan

FOM

FED file

Modified Federates

Scenario Instance

RTI RID File

TestedFederation

TestingData

Test EvaluationCriteria

Reusable Products

UserFeedback

IntegrateandTest

Federation

5

DefineFederationObjectives

DevelopFederationConceptual

Model

DesignFederation

Develop

Federation

IdentifyNeeds

DevelopObjectives

DevelopScenario

PerformConceptual

Analysis

DevelopFederation

Requirements

SelectFederates

AllocateFunctionality

DevelopFOM

EstablishFederation

ImplementFederation

ExecuteFederation

And AnalyzeResults

ExecuteFederation

ProcessOutput

PrepareResults

PlanExecution

IntegrateFederation

TestFederation

IntegrateAndTest

Federation

PreparePlan

Agreements

Modifications

Urban Growth – UrbanSim, PECAS, What-If?

Transportation – TRANSIMS, TranPlan, CUBE

Water/Stormwater – SWWM, BASINS, HEC-RAS, WASP

Energy – NEMS, MARKAL

Air Quality – CMAQ, CALINE3, UAM-V

Existing Models

Metamodel Steps

• Predict the demand and location for urban infrastructure for development and redevelopment, including the resulting economic flows and socioeconomic drivers based on emergent properties

• Determine the infrastructure system options (e.g., community design, net zero buildings, construction methods, material choices) available to meet this demand and (re)design the virtual city

• Choose a transportation options (e.g., walking, biking, automobiles, public transportation, automobiles) and simulate traffic flows and travel times using micro-simulation models (e.g., TranSims)

• Determine the materials and energy needed to construct and maintain the urban infrastructure

• Assess the infrastructure’s vulnerability to natural hazards (e.g., floods, earthquakes, hurricanes) and manmade challenges (e.g., resource constraints or supply chain disruptions)

• Determine the local, regional, and global impacts (e.g., carbon footprint) of various scenarios using life cycle impact assessment

• Predict heat island effects using microclimate models and determine increases to water and energy demands

• Visualize various sustainability and resiliency metrics (e.g., carbon footprint; water, material, and energy demands; and social and economic impacts)