intergovernmental panel on climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation charles w. rice soil...
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Impacts, Adaptation and MitigationImpacts, Adaptation and Mitigation
Charles W. RiceCharles W. RiceSoil MicrobiologistSoil Microbiologist
Department of AgronomyDepartment of Agronomy
Lead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIIILead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIII
K-State Research and ExtensionK-State Research and Extension
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Source: Petit et al. 1999Thousands of years
Atm
osp
he
ric
CO
2 (
pp
mv
)Human perturbationHuman perturbation
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
Figure 10.9
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
Impact
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
2020s
2050s
2080s
Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees
North America: Key messages• A wide range of impacts of climate change are now clearly
documented• Risks from future impacts concentrated on extreme events• Vulnerable people and activities (including ag) in almost
every region– Increase number, intensity, and duration of heat waves– Changes in precipitation patterns
• Water resources will constrain potential crop yield increases and increase competition for water resources
• Warmer nights and winters may increase pest and disease in agriculture
• Opportunities for improving adaptation• Opportunities for mitigation
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
Mitigation
Fillin
g Th
e T
echn
ology Gap
Tg C yr-1
Slide courtesy of Jae Edmonds
Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means…• Changing the global energy system
• Developing a least-cost technology portfolio
Source: Socolow & Pacala; Sci. Am., Sept. 2006
Each “De-carbonizing Wedge” represents 25 billion tons of carbon avoided or reduced. 7 wedges needed to reach stabilize carbon emissions
Energy supply
0
1
2
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7GtCO2-eq
Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste
Non-OECD/EI TEITOECDWorld total
US$/tCO2-eq
Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices
IPCC, 2007
Agriculture• A large proportion of the mitigation potential of agriculture
(excluding bioenergy) arises from soil C sequestration, which has strong synergies with sustainable agriculture and generally reduces vulnerability to climate change.
• Agricultural practices collectively can make a significant contribution at low cost – By increasing soil carbon sinks, – By reducing GHG emissions, – By contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007
Soil Microbial ActivitySoil Microbial ActivitySoil Organic Matter (C)Soil Organic Matter (C)
CO2
Harvestable Yield
Sunlight
Climate
Soils Management
No-Tillage Cropping SystemsNo-Tillage Cropping Systems
Conservation AgricultureConservation Agriculture
•Restores soil carbon•Conserves moisture•Saves fuel•Saves labor•Lowers machinery costs•Reduces erosion•Improved soil fertility•Controls weed•Planting on the best date•Improves wildlife habitat
CCX voluntary offset market
Contracts120,000 acres in KS, >2 million acres in the US
CCX Carbon Offset Prices
Vin 2003
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
01/14/04 04/23/04 08/01/04 11/09/04 02/17/05 05/28/05 09/05/05 12/14/05 03/24/06 07/02/06
Relative Yield, Economic, and Sequestration Characteristics for adopting NT continuous Corn, NE Kansas
NT
Mean Yield (bu/a) 86 CT 87.7
ΔNet Return ($/a) 26.50
Δ Soil Carbon (tons/a/y) 0.465
Δ Total Emissions (tons/a/y) -0.0087
Δ Net Carbon (tons/a/y) 0.481
Soil C Value ($/a/y) $4.00 value $2.76
Soil C Value ($/a/y) $20.00 value ~$14.0010% additional incomePendell et al., 2006
Soil OrganicCarbon
MicrobialActivity
Nutrient Cycling
Soil Structure
Soil Biodiversity
WaterErosion
&Availability
Gaseous Gaseous EmissionsEmissions
Plant GrowthYield
Environmental Environmental ServicesServices
SustainabilitySustainability
Additional mitigation from agriculture
• Additional mitigation of 770 Mt CO2-eq. yr-1 could be achieved by 2030 by improved energy efficiency in agriculture
• Feed-stocks for bio-energy.
Smith et al. (2007a)
Biofuel Production Concerns• Changes in land use, and potential conversion of
conservation lands to biomass production.
• Impact on soil carbon
• Changes in water needs, availability, and water quality impacts.
• Competition for grains and oilseeds and impacts on food and feed availability and prices.
• Lifecycle analyses and GHG/C accounting for biofuels production.
• • Assessing co-benefits of biofuel production, such as soil
quality, reduced erosion from marginal crop lands, and enhanced wildlife benefits.
So What is the Potential?• Globally
– It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 30% of the annual CO2 emissions
• United States– It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 15% of
the annual CO2 emissions– Additional options for N2O and CH4
• The economic potential is ~30-50% of that value
Conclusions: Mitigation• Agriculture has a significant role to play in climate mitigation
• Agriculture is cost competitive with mitigation options in other sectors
• Many mitigation options improve sustainability
• Bio-energy crops and improved energy efficiency in agriculture can contribute to further climate mitigation
• Agricultural mitigation should be part of a portfolio of mitigation measures to reduce emissions / increase sinks while new, low carbon energy technologies are developed.
• Websites
www.soilcarboncenter.k-state.edu/
www.casmgs.colostate.edu/
K-State Research and ExtensionK-State Research and Extension
Chuck RicePhone: 785-532-7217Cell: 785-587-7215 [email protected]