intergovernmental oceanographic commission of unesco · transfer: alexandria case study...
TRANSCRIPT
Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commission of UNESCO
Thorkild Aarup - Stefano Belfiore
IOC Secretariat
Regional Workshop on Disaster Risk
Reduction and Climate Change
“Challenges and Future Actions”
Cairo, 21-23 November 2009
Founded in connection with the International Indian Ocean
Expedition in 1960 as an UN body with functional autonomy
the IOC since then has worked to promote international
cooperation in marine research and protection.
• Monitoring the ocean and facilitating data exhange through
the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Developing tsunami and other sea level-related warning
systems in vulnerable regions
• Building capacities in marine sciences and coastal planning
and adaptation
One planet, one ocean
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
(IOC) of UNESCO
UNESCO and climate change
Climate knowledge:
science, assessment,
monitoring and early
warning:
• WMO and UNESCO
convenors
UNESCO Plan of Action
on Climate Change
• Building and
maintaining the climate
change knowledge
base
• Promoting mitigation
and adaptation to
climate change
• Moving towards a
climate neutral
UNESCO
Global Ocean Observing System
GOOS is a series of observation and monitoring
programmes designed to:
• Monitor, understand and predict weather and climate
• Describe and forecast the state of the ocean,
including living resources
• Improve management of marine and coastal
ecosystems and resources
• Mitigate damage from natural hazards and pollution
• Protect life and property on coasts and at sea
• Enable scientific research
Implementation agents: GOOS
Regional Alliances
1st GOOS Regional Forum, Athens, Greece, 2002
2nd GRA Forum, Nadi, Fiji, 2004
3rd GRA Forum, Cape Town, S. Africa, 2006
4th GRA Forum, Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2008
SAON
SOOS
The Global Sea Level Sea Level Observing System
Core Network
Sea Level Station Monitoring Facility
Alexandria
The IOC has successfully coordinated the Pacific Tsunami
Warning System (PTWS) since 1965. In the aftermath of the
Sumatra tsunami on December 26, 2004, the IOC received the
mandate to assist all Member States in establishing three
more tsunami and other ocean related hazards EWS.
IOTWS
CARIBE-EWS
NEAMTWS
(NE Atlantic,
Mediterranean
and connected
seas)
IOC Coordination of Tsunami Warning Systems
Tsunamis in the NEAM zone Stefano Tinti
Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the
North Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS)
Pacific Ocean
73%
Indian Ocean
5%
Caribbean Sea and
Atlantic Ocean
6%
Mediterranean Sea
14%
Black Sea
2%
Regional Distribution of tsunamis 1650 BC to A.D 2008
~ 1100 events
Elevation maxima
Elevation minima
Stefano Tinti
End-to-End Tsunami Warning System
b
Seismology /
GPSSea Level
Simulation/
Modelling
RTWC
NTWC
Data collection
Data processing
Quality control
Network Management
Tsunami Watch
Network supervision
Focal Points
Tsunami Warning
All
Data
National Data Centers
Redundant Redundant
RTWC RTWC
NTWC NTWC
TWS ARCHITECTURE
Virtual seismic network for NEAMTWS for RTWCs
Existing RT station
Existing dial-up station
Existing off-line station
Non-public RT station
Required RT station
Seismic network of the ITWS
Coastal sea-level network of the ITWS
Status of TNCs and TWFPs
RTWCs
Centre Core coverage 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
IM (PT)Portugal, North-
eastern Atlantic
CEA (FR) France, Western
Mediterranean
DPC (IT) Italy, Adriatic Sea,
Malta, Libya, Tunisia
NOA (GR) Greece, Aegean Sea
KOERI (TK)
Turkey, Eastern
Mediterranean,
Black Sea
NTWC RTWCGFZ acting as back-up and data centre
Coastal flooding and erosion
Changes in mean sea level result in
changes in the frequency of flooding events
For San Francisco, a 1-in-100 year flooding event
has become a 1-in-10 year event!Courtesy of John Hunter, CSIRO Hobart
Coastal inundation hazards
Hazard Tsunami Storm surge Wind-driven
waves
Sea level
rise
Coastal
erosion
Frequency Decades to
centuries
Annual to
decadal
Annual to
decadal
Ongoing but
accelerating
Ongoing but
accelerating
Magnitude
(run-up)
From cm to
meters
1-2 meters or
more
1-2 meters or
more
Average
+0.5-1.7 cm
Several m/yr
Duration Hours to 1
day
Few hours to
few days
Hours to
many days
Ongoing Ongoing
Impact Inundation
and drainage
surges
Single event
inundation
Multiple
localized
inundations
Progressive
sea level rise
Progressive
Area Local run-up Hydrological
modelling
Terrain
modelling
Terrain
modelling
Long-term
trends
Warning Minutes to
hours
12 hours to 2
days
1-3 days Decades Decades
IOC
programme
TSU JCOMM JCOMM GLOSS ICAM
Coastal inundation end-to-end systems C
oas
tal
Flo
odin
g
Climate Change
Tsunamis
Storm Surges
Extreme Waves
Sea
Lev
el
Ob
servati
on
s
Co
ast
al B
ath
ym
etry
an
d i
nn
un
da
tion
Mo
del
lin
g
Sei
smic
Obs
Da
ta t
ran
smis
iso
n o
f
ob
serv
ati
on
s in
rea
l ti
me
Dis
sim
ina
tio
n o
f
wa
tch
& w
arn
ing
s
Wa
ve
pro
pa
ga
tio
n
mo
del
lin
g
ICZ
M/I
CA
M
Pla
nn
ing
Ad
ap
tati
on
Adaptation to climate and coastal
change
Objectives
• Identification of
vulnerable sites
• Implementation of
pilot projects in
adaptation
• National and
regional adaptation
strategies
Cape Verde, Gambia,
Guinea-Bissau,
Mauritania, Senegal
UNDP & IOC
$4 million (2008-2011)
CONTENT OF THE
GUIDELINES
The production of the guidelines has
been facilitated with the generous
support of the NOAA, the Government of
Flanders and the WMO.
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001832/183253e.pdf
THE ICAM CONTEXT
THE HAZARDS DESCRIBED
Rapid-onset hazards
Tsunami
Storm surge
Extreme wind-forced
waves
Cumulative, progressive
or “creeping” hazards
Long-term sea-level rise
Coastal erosion
IDENTIFYING AND QUANTIFYING THE HAZARDS
Define the geographical limits of the coastal management area.
Examine the historical records of coastal hazard impact events and shoreline change, also
the regional and ocean-wide seismic records.
Access information on hazard origins and propagation patterns, local, regional and far-field.
Acquire and compile data on nearshore bathymetry and coastal
topography.
Determine the spatial parameters of hazard impact – the exposure
(e.g., by modelling or post-impact observation).
Determine probabilities for hazard scenarios.
Display exposure and probability results as hazard maps.
Convey results of hazard assessment to risk and emergency
managers.
MEASURING VULNERABILITY
This section aims to guide the determination of the
social, physical, economic and environmental
vulnerabilities of coastal communities who may be
affected by the possible impacts of inundation. It
identifies the data requirements that are
appropriate to the scale the management unit and
the specific thematic dimension of vulnerability. It
describes how these data may be gathered then
processed to provide vulnerability levels for defined
inundation scenarios.
Procedures for vulnerability assessment in
respect of natural hazards are documented in
publications such as those of ISDR. While many
aspects of the vulnerability of coastal communities
to coastal hazards are common to community
vulnerability to natural hazards in general, the
section highlights consequences of hazard
impacts of particular relevance to coastal areas.
TRANSFER: Alexandria case study
•Vulnerability assessment of
coastal population based on
local statistics and survey data
(UNU-EHS) and the
assessment of physical fragility
via high-resolution earth
observation data (< = 1m)(EC-
JRC)
•Combination of satellite
imagery data and socio-
economic data based on local
statistics and survey conditions
within a city
Partners: EC/JRC, University of
Bologna, University of Alexandria,
National Authority for Remote
Sensing and Space Sciences
(NARSS)
ASSESSING THE RISK
This section provides guidance
in determining the likelihood of
specified loss and damage to a
coastal community, including its
population, economy,
supporting environment and its
institutional structures caused
by the impacts of the coastal
hazards.
ENHANCING AWARENESS AND PREPAREDNESS
Identify an appropriate early warning framework.
Raise awareness of the risk at all levels in the community.
Establish the key operational requirements of the early
warning system.
Prepare all levels of the community for emergency responses.
• MITIGATING THE RISK
Procedures and information that policy makers
should consider within ICAM when developing
a risk mitigation strategy for the coastal
hazards.
Summary of socio-
economic,
environmental and
institutional/political
trade-offs of various
hazard management
approaches.
www.ioc-unesco.org
Plan of action for the 50th Anniversary
Expo 2010
Shanghai
Exhibition with
UNESCO on “Safety
of settlements at risk
from the effects of
marine natural
hazards”
Expo 2012
Yeosu
2nd International
Symposium on the
“Effects of climate
change on the World’s
ocean”
JCOMM-IV
The IOC contribution
•Sustained efforts in
ocean and coastal
observations underpinning
climate monitoring and
adaptation
•Multi-hazard approach in
addressing coastal
hazards and extreme
events
Manuals and guides