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Interagency Performance Evaluation Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET)Task Force (IPET)
Summary & StatusSummary & Status
Dr. Ed Link, Director
IPET MissionIPET Mission
HAZARD
SYSTEM
CONSEQUENCES
Forensic Analysis and Risk Based System Wide Assessment
https://ipet.wes.army.mil http://www.mhclibrary.com
Results are “in the Ground”
IPET Final ReportIPET Final Report
DOJ for Release by 31 JanVOL IX - Appendices
Draft Final being prepared, initial release by early Mar, final by Jun
VOL VIII – The Risk and Reliability Analysis
DoJ for release of Final by 31 JanVOL VII – The Consequences
Draft Final being completed, Release expected by end of Feb
VOL VI The Performance –Drainage and Pumping
Draft Final in edit, Release expected by end Feb
VOL V The Performance - Levees and Floodwalls
Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb
VOL IV The Storm
Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb
VOL III The Hurricane Protection System
DOJ for Release of Final 31 JanVOL II Geodetic Vertical and Water Level Datums
DOJ for Release of Interim Final 31 Jan
VOL I Executive Summary And Overview
StatusVolume
Performance Evaluation of the New Orleans and Performance Evaluation of the New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Protection SystemSoutheast Louisiana Hurricane Protection System
Final Report of the Interagency Final Report of the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task ForcePerformance Evaluation Task Force
DOJ for Release by 31 JanVOL IX - Appendices
Draft Final being prepared, initial release by early Mar, final by Jun
VOL VIII – The Risk and Reliability Analysis
DoJ for release of Final by 31 JanVOL VII – The Consequences
Draft Final being completed, Release expected by end of Feb
VOL VI The Performance – Drainage and Pumping
Draft Final in edit, Release expected by end Feb
VOL V The Performance - Levees and Floodwalls
Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb
VOL IV The Storm
Draft Final in edit, Release expected by 15 Feb
VOL III The Hurricane Protection System
DOJ for Release of Final 31 JanVOL II Geodetic Vertical and Water Level Datums
DOJ for Release of Interim Final 31 JanVOL I Executive Summary And Overview
StatusVolume
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Time (days)
Elev
atio
n (ft
)
The HazardThe Hazard
Issues: Climate DynamicsCoastal Dynamics
Probability of Surge and Wave Levelsby Locale
Surge
Waves
Rain
Central PressureMax WindsRadius to max windsSpeedTrack
Fore
nsic
Ana
lysi
sSy
stem
Wid
e A
sses
smen
t
Katrina Time History of Forces by Locale
Probability Characteristics for Set of PBL Parameters and Tracks(including potential climate variability)
Wind Field – Wind Stresses
Surge Models Wave Models
Water Levels, Overtopping, Loads on Structures, etc.
Winds:Oceanweather PBL
Offcoast Waves:WAM/Wavewatch
Nearshore Waves:STWAVE/SWAN
Local Scale Waves:Boussinesq - Parametric
Unified GridSurge model:ADCIRC withwave set-up(version 46.50)
Coupling
Integration of JPM Probabilities for Inundation Threat
Plus effects on leveesdue to waves
Joint Probability Method Joint Probability Method –– Optimum SamplingOptimum Sampling
The 2 primary dimensions for estimation of surge maxima along coast: Storm Intensity and Storm Size. Katrina is about a 400-year storm and Rita isAbout a 90-year storm in their areas of maximum effect
NOAA chart with storms versusintensity only
Chart from ADCIRC simulationsshowing that both intensity andsize affect surges at the coast
Plot of estimated cumulative kinetic energy for all storms: 1941-2005.
The Hazard is DynamicThe Hazard is Dynamic
The SystemThe System
Distribution of Types of StructuresDistribution of Types of Structures
PrePre--Katrina Katrina vsvs Authorized ElevationsAuthorized Elevations
Breach Sites and CharacterizationBreach Sites and Characterization
Post Katrina Post Katrina vsvs Authorized ElevationsAuthorized Elevations
System PerformanceSystem PerformanceFo
rens
ic A
naly
sis
Syst
em W
ide
Ass
essm
ent
CL
RainfallOvertoppingBreaching
RainfallOvertoppingBreaching
Expected Performanceby Event andArea
Katrina Performanceby Component
0.5 ft1 ft2 ft3 ft
Elevation (NAVD88 (2004.65))
Prob
abili
ty o
f Fa
ilure
1
0Global Stability
Erosion
Design
+0.5 ft
+1.0 ft
+2.0 ft+3.0 ft
Erodibility Index Factor
EpistemicUncertainty
Correlation of Levee Performance and Correlation of Levee Performance and Quality of MaterialsQuality of Materials
LegendLevee Footprint
Levee Breaches
LegendLevee Footprint
Hydraulic Fill
Hauled Fill
Drainage and Pumping Drainage and Pumping
ConsequencesConsequences
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Stage
Dire
ct E
cono
mic
Los
ses
(mill
ions
)
5% LCMean95% UC
Katrina
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-9.9 -7.9 -5.9 -3.9 -1.9 0.1 2.1 4.1 6.1 8.1 10.1
12.1
14.1
16.1
18.1
20.1
22.1
24.1
Flood Water Elevation Nav88(2004.65)
Estim
ated
Fat
aliti
es
KatrinaDistributedLife, Cultural,Economic & EnvironmentalLossesFo
rens
ic A
naly
sis
Syst
em W
ide
Ass
essm
ent
Distributed Life and EconomicLossesby Event & Scenario
Flooding
Losses
Elevation -Exceedance
IPET Risk ModelIPET Risk Model
Hazard Reliability Flooding Losses
Scenario B
Scenario A
Risk = P(bad) x Loss Illustrative Only
Sources of RiskSources of RiskRelative Risk
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent of Reach Risk
A B C
Scenario
BreachingOvertoppingFeatureTransition
Sources of Risk
0
5
10
15
20
25
$M/year
A B C
Scenario
NOEOrleans EastJefferson EastJefferson WestSt. BernardsSt. CharlesPlaquemines
NOAA Inundation MappingNOAA Inundation MappingRisk Model TestingRisk Model TestingKatrina Katrina –– PrePre--Katrina SystemKatrina System
Chance of InundationChance of Inundation
Vulnerability AnalysisVulnerability Analysis
Risk Informed Decisions Risk Informed Decisions
NOE5 – Reach 2
NOE4 – Reach 3
SB2 – Feature 1
OM4 – Feature 3
JE3 – Reach 4
OM5 – Reach 7
Ann
ual F
ailu
re P
roba
bilit
y, p
f
1.E-09
1.E-08
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Loss of Life, N
1.E-09
1.E-08
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E-001.E-00
1000000
High Justification
Increased Justification
Low Justification
Illustrative Only
POLICY !!