Inter-American Network of Academies of ScienceInter-American Network of Academies of ScienceEnergy Policy meetingEnergy Policy meeting

Inter-American Network of Academies of ScienceInter-American Network of Academies of ScienceEnergy Policy meetingEnergy Policy meeting

Bogota, ColombiaBogota, Colombia99thth -10 -10thth June 2011 June 2011

Professor Anthony ClaytonProfessor Anthony ClaytonUniversity of the West IndiesUniversity of the West Indies

Energy policies (and problems) in Energy policies (and problems) in Jamaica: update June 2011Jamaica: update June 2011

Part 1: new reasons for concern

Spikes not driven by fundamentals, but by politics

65%

The 21 Arabic-speaking nations/territories: May 2011

Revolution War Insurrection RepressionSecession

Protests18/21 affected

Part 2: Recap of the situation in Jamaica

Energy (in)efficiencyEnergy (in)efficiency Jamaica’s energy intensity index (EII) has increased

for ~2 decades. Despite high oil prices, energy consumption grows faster than the economy.

Jamaica uses >21,000 BTU to produce US$1.00 of output; global average is 4,600 BTU.

Jamaica consumes ~60,000 barrels of oil/day, imported 22.1 million barrels in 2009.

In 2009 87% of Jamaica’s foreign exchange income was used to buy imported oil.

Energy mix in Jamaica (2009)•Imported oil: ~91%.•Renewable: ~9%.

Indicator 2009 2012 2015 2030

% renewable in energy mix 9% 11% 12.5% 20%

% diversification energy supply 9% 11% 33% 70%

Energy intensity index (BTU/US$1 output) in constant year 2000 $US

21,152 14,000 12,700 6,000

Jamaica: energy policy timetable

Still more than world average in 2010

By importing LNG

In summary….In summary….

1. Standards of energy efficiency in Jamaica are extremely low.

2. Jamaica is heavily dependent on imported oil, a finite resource that is likely to be increasingly expensive in future; consumption also has significant environmental costs.

3. Jamaica has a serious balance of payments problem; much of which stems from (2).

Energy policy goalsEnergy policy goals

1. Import LNG to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on oil.

2. Reduce energy intensity of economy by increasing efficiency of energy production and consumption.

3. Reduce barriers to uptake of energy conservation and efficiency technologies.

Energy policy goalsEnergy policy goals

1. Import LNG.

(in principle)(in principle)

(in practice)(in practice)

Part 3: Update

November 2010: James Robertson, Minister of Mining and Energy, accused of soliciting murder

May 2011: USA withdraws visa from James Robertson, UK and Canada reported to be considering similar action

May 2011: James Robertson resigns as Minister

May 2011: Contractor-General reports LNG project was corrupt

2010: LNG project removed from Ministry of Mining and Energy

Consequences•LNG project now to be renegotiated•Growing doubts about costs and benefits•Lobbies for coal, possibly nuclear

Most likely outcome?

Business as usual: continued dependence on oil.

Part 4: the good news….

Zero net energy buildings

It is now possible to construct buildings with zero net energy demand; produce same amount of energy they consume.

Does not mean self-sufficient; buildings buy energy from grid when loads exceed generating capacity, sell energy to grid when loads are low.

If all buildings were ZNE would displace ~25% global energy demand.

March 2008: UK Government set target: all new schools and domestic buildings zero-carbon by 2016all non-domestic buildings by 2019.April 2009: European Parliament amended Energy Performance of Buildings Directive to require that by 2019 all new buildings must be net zero energy

Net Zero Energy Building Net Zero Energy Building (NET ZEB)(NET ZEB)

ZEB IN MALAYSIA

The University of Copenhagen Faculty of Science buildingOpened October 2009

The University of Copenhagen Faculty of Science building

•Natural ventilation and shading reduce cooling load•High windows and skylights provide natural lighting•PV cells produce electricity•Small façade reduces heating load

The University of Copenhagen Faculty of Science interior

ZNE/EP prototype building in Jamaica

UWI research project will construct a ZNE/EP building as pilot project

Final stage of negotiating fundingExtensive buy-in from major stakeholders

(utilities, professions, financial institutions)

Thank you !Thank you !Thank you !Thank you !