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INTENDED NATIONALLYDETERMINED CONTRIBUTION
OF MONGOLIA
TO THE 2015 AGREEMENT UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
(UNFCCC) AND SUBMITTED TO THE UNFCCC SECRETARIAT ON 24TH OF SEPTEMBER 2015
ULAANBAATAR 2015
Section I
Section II
The development and publication of the “Mongolia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the 2015 Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)” was supervised by the Climate Change Project Implementing Unit of the Nature Conservation Fund (NCF) under the Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism of Mongolia with financial and technical support from the Global Environmental Facility, United Nations Environment Programme and Global INDC Support Programme implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.
The official document of Mongolia’s INDC was submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat on September 24th 2015.
Editor-in-chief: Batjargal ZambaProject director: Batjargal KhandjavNational Working team: Tegshjargal Bumtsend (project manager), Solongo Byambadorj (project administrative assistant), Saruul Dolgorsuren (development of project proposal)
International consultants: GIZ supported consultants: Inga Zachow (Global INDC Support Programme, GIZ), Koen Smekens, James Falzon, Matthew Halstead (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, ECN), Thomas Day (New Climate Institute, NCI) Consultants from UNEP-DTU Partnership: Sudhir Sharma, Prakriti Naswa
Leaders of the Thematic Working Groups: Batimaа P., Natsagdorj L.
Members of the Thematic Working Groups: Dorjpurev J., Namkhainyam B., Bolortsetseg B., Bynie B., Davaa G., Davaadorj G., Dorjsuren Ch., Gomboluudev P., Erdenetsetseg B.
Designed by: Batzorig.B
© Disclaimers
This document may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT) of Mongolia would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this document as a source.
No use of this document may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the MEGDT of Mongolia.
Section I
Section II
Section III
Foreword ............................................................................................................. 8Preface ................................................................................................................ 9
CHAPTER 1. RATIONALE AND PROCESS FOR DEVELOPING INDCs ON ADAPTATION ............................................................................................ 121.1. Adaptation Rationale ................................................................................. 12
CHAPTER 2. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS, IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES ................................................................ 132.1. Current climate change and future scenarios ............................................. 132.2. Impact of climate change, vulnerability and risks ....................................... 15
CHAPTER 3. REPORTING ON LONG-TERM AND NEAR-TERM ADAPTATION VISIONS, GOALS AND TARGETS .................. 213.1. Adaptation goals and targets ...................................................................... 213.1.1. National and sectoral adaptation goals and targets ................................ 213.1.2. Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets .......................................... 263.1.3. Adaptation-mitigation benefits ................................................................ 26
CHAPTER 4. CURRENT AND PLANNED ADAPTATION UNDERTAKINGS AND SUPPORT .................................................................. 274.1. Financial ..................................................................................................... 274.2. Capacity...................................................................................................... 334.3. Technical ..................................................................................................... 36
CHAPTER 5. GAPS AND BARRIERS .............................................................. 39
CHAPTER 6. SUMMARY OF NEEDS ............................................................... 41
CHAPTER 7. MONITORING AND REPORTING PROGRESS ........................ 43
ANNEX I. Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets ................................... 44
CHAPTER 8. GHG MITIGATION ..................................................................... 488.1. Existing national GHG emissions and BAU projections of GHG emissions ................................................................................................. 488.1.1. National GHG inventory for the latest year available............................... 488.2. National BAU GHG emission...................................................................... 568.3. Assumptions and methods for establishing BAU emissions in the energy sector .......................................................................... 59
Table of contents
8.3.1. Method..................................................................................................... 598.3.2. Assumptions ............................................................................................ 598.3.3. Energy sector (power and heat) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario ...................................................................................... 608.3.4. Energy sector (transport) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario ...................................................................................... 618.4. Non-energy sector ...................................................................................... 618.4.1. Industrial sector ....................................................................................... 618.4.2. Agriculture................................................................................................ 628.4.3. Land use, land-use change and forestry ................................................. 628.4.4. Waste ...................................................................................................... 62
CHAPTER 9. OPTIONS FOR MITIGATION COMPONENT OF THE INDC ..... 639.1. Type and format of mitigation contribution .................................................. 639.1.1. Type of mitigation contribution ................................................................. 639.1.2. Economy-wide GHG emission target ...................................................... 649.1.3. Sectoral GHG emission target ................................................................. 649.1.4. Decarbonization indicator ........................................................................ 649.1.5. Policies and measures ............................................................................ 659.1.6. Format of mitigation contribution ............................................................. 659.2. Timing considerations for mitigation contribution........................................ 669.2.1. Target year for activities ........................................................................... 669.2.2. Period of implementation ......................................................................... 669.3. Unilateral and supported contributions ....................................................... 669.4. Political and legal implications of the mitigation component....................... 679.5. Type and format of Mongolia’s mitigation contribution ............................... 67
CHAPTER 10. MONGOLIA’S INDC: MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION.............. 70
CHAPTER 11. ASSESSMENT OF MITIGATION IMPACT, FAIRNESS AND AMBITION OF THE INDC ..................................................... 7111.1. Mitigation impact of INDC ........................................................................ 7111.1.1. GHG Mitigation Scenarios in energy sector .......................................... 7111.1.2. Energy (transport) emissions reductions calculation ............................. 7311.1.3. Industrial measure (cement) emissions reductions calculation ............. 7411.1.4. Agriculture emissions reductions calculation ......................................... 7411.2. Net emissions reductions .......................................................................... 7411.3. Fairness and ambition of INDC ................................................................ 74
CHAPTER 12. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION ......................................................................... 7512.1. Anchoring the mitigation contribution in legislation ................................... 7512.2. Obtaining international support................................................................. 7512.3. Next steps for implementation .................................................................. 76
CHAPTER 13. TRACKING AND MONITORING PROGRESS ......................... 7813.1. Sectors and gases covered ..................................................................... 7813.2. Accounting Methods for tracking the mitigation contribution ................... 7813.3. Accounting method used for forest mitigation actions .............................. 7813.4. Institutional arrangements for INDC implementation (mitigation part) ...... 78
REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 81
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1. Changes in a) annual mean temperature, and b) annual precipitation in Mongolia between 1940 and 2014 ....................13Figure 2.2. Future temperature changes in a) winter and b) summer seasons, oC (in comparison with the average temperatures during 1986-2005) ..................14Figure 2.3. Future changes in precipitation in a) winter and b) summer seasons, % (in comparison with the average of period of 1986-2005) ................................15Figure 8.1. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the energy sector, by fuel type ..........49Figure 8.2. Total GHG emissions from the energy sector by gases in Gg CO2-eq. ............50Figure 8.3. Projections of GHG emissions and removals (sector) .....................................57Figure 8.4. GHG emission projections (by gas types) ........................................................58Figure 8.5. Comparison of GHG emission projections prepared in three different studies .59Figure 8.6. GHG emissions from energy demand and energy transformation ...................60Figure 8.7. GHG emissions from power plants ...................................................................61Figure 11.1. Indicative potential emissions reductions of the measures compared to BAU emissions ...........................................................74Figure 13.1. Simplified chart of Institutional arrangement for GHG mitigation analysis and implementation ............................................................................79
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1. Summary of climate change impacts, vulnerability and risk assessment ..........17Table 3.1. National and sectoral adaptation goals and targets ...........................................22Table 3.2. Possible adaptation co-benefits .........................................................................26Table 4.1. Implementation of climate change adaptation undertakings and supports ........28Table 4.2. Capacity of current and planned undertakings...................................................33Table 4.3. Current and planned adaptation undertakings ...................................................36Table 5.1. Gaps and barriers ..............................................................................................40Table 6.1. Adaptation needs (2021-2030) ...........................................................................41ANNEX I Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets (Scores: Very high-3, High-2, Medium-1) ...........................................................44Table 8.1. CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion, Gg ..................................................48Table 8.2. Total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in Gg CO2-eq. in the energy sector ............50Table 8.3. All types of cargo transport turnover and passenger turnover ...........................50Table 8.4. Number of cars, types and used period .............................................................51Table 8.5. Improved roads by length ...................................................................................51Table 8.6. CO2 emissions from lime production, Gg ...........................................................52Table 8.7. Total NMVOC emissions from food and beverages production in the industrial sector, Gg ..................................................................................52Table 8.8. Total emissions related to halocarbons, Gg .......................................................53Table 8.9. GHG Emissions from the agricultural sector, Gg ...............................................53Table 8.10. GHG emissions from the waste sector, Gg ........................................................54Table 8.11. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by gases (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.) ..............................................................55Table 8.12. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by sectors (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.) ..............................................................56Table 8.13. Aggregated projections of GHG emissions by sector ........................................57Table 8.14. GHG emission projections from Energy sector prepared in three different studies, million tonnes CO2-eq ............................................................58Table 8.15. GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.) from energy sector for BAU scenario .... 60Table 8.16. GHG emissions caused from transportation sector, kt CO2 ...............................61Table 10.1. Proposed policies and measures for Mongolia’s INDC ......................................69Table 10.2. List of NAMAs of Mongolia to the Copenhagen Accord .....................................70Table 11.1. Capacity of renewable energy sources for electricity generation, MW ..............71Table 11.2. Assumptions for reduction of electricity transmission and distribution of power plant own use losses and building energy efficiency ...........................72Table 11.3. Assumptions for power plant electric efficiency improvement, % ......................72Table 11.4. GHG emissions in different scenarios, million tonnes CO2-eq. ..........................73Table 11.5. GHG emission reduction, million tonnes CO2-eq. ..............................................73Table 12.1. Policies and measures for implementation up to 2030 ......................................76
ABBREVIATIONS
ADB Asian Development BankBAU Business as usual scenarioCC Climate changeCHP Combined heat and power plantDTU Technical University of Denmark ECN Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands GCF Green Climate FundGEF Global Environmental FacilityGHG Greenhouse gasHPP Hydro power plant IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JCM Joint Crediting Mechanism between Mongolia and JapanLULUCF Land use, land-use change and forestry MEGDT Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism of Mongolia NAMAs Nationally appropriate mitigation actions NAPCC National action programme on climate change NCF Nature Conservation Fund NMVOC Non-methane volatile organic compounds UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WB World Bank
UNITS°C Degree celsiusСО2-eq. Carbon dioxide equivalentGg Gigagram = 109 gram ha Hectares km KilometreMW Megawatt = 106 watt mln Milliont Tonnes
Foreword
8
According to Mongolia’s Second Assessment Report on Climate Change 2014, the impacts and consequences of climate change are eventually visible in Mongolia through environmental degradation with the change in water resources and regimes, shrinking lakes, ponds and springs in non-permafrost areas, depletion of groundwater tables, pasture and soil degradation due to aridity and extreme heat in the summer, a loss of biodiversity, intensified desertification, the changes of wildlife habitat, and the increasing frequency of forest and steppe fires.
In the assessment report, issued by the international organization, Mongolia has ranked at 8 out of the 10 world’s most vulnerable countries to the climate change by its long-term index, based on data between 1993 and 2012. Future climate change projections indicate that there is a higher possibility of increased intensification of drought
and ddzud throughout the country. Such frequent occurrences of drought and ddzud and decline of livestock productivity will have adverse impact on livelihood of local communities, and thus migration might exacerbate the challenges faced by the urban settlements and cities.
The amount of machinery, technology, fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides in the arable farming has multiplied since the rapid development of agriculture sector in 1980s; however, the crop yield per hectare fluctuated around 50 percent depending on weather conditions. Current year’s poor harvest shows that such situation is actual in nowadays as well. Moreover, climate change might have adverse impact on human health. For instance, due to climate zone shifts, outbreaks of new emerging infectious diseases might spread among the population.
In this respect, there is a strong need to develop long term strategies on response and adaptation to climate change, covering all possible impacts on livelihood of local communities, on the trend of economic development at the national and regional levels, as well on the urban planning and infrastructure development in the country. Considering the equality in mitigating global and regional climate change, Mongolia convinced that as a UN member country it has responsibility to make its contribution to the climate change mitigation activities, mobilizing own potential and with the financial and technical support from the international organizations and donor community.
As the world marches toward the United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP21) in December 2015, together with the move from the Millennium Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals, governments have prepared their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) setting efforts towards limiting the rise of the global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Reaffirming its commitment to support the efforts of international community in reaching the multi-lateral agreement to fulfil the main goal of the Convention, Mongolia has developed its INDC, which reflect Mongolia’s endeavours towards the reduction of emissions. The INDC of Mongolia respectfully addressed both mitigation and adaptation challenges, and was officially submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat on 24th of September, 2015.
I strongly believe that, by implementing actions included in the INDC, Mongolia will not only strengthen the capacity of surmounting the adverse impacts of global climate change but also will contribute to global climate change mitigation actions.
Battsereg Namdag
Member of the Parliament, Minister of Environment, Green Development and Tourism
Foreword
9
Preface
PrefaceNational context
Mongolia is a landlocked country located in the centre of the Eurasian continent in a temperate climate zone. The climate is characterised by high fluctuations and extremes in temperature and precipitation. The annual mean temperature ranges from -8°C to 8°C across regions and the annual precipitation varies from 50mm in the Gobi desert to 400mm in the northern mountainous area. Climate change assessments undertaken in Mongolia in 2009 and 2014, demonstrated that fragile ecosystems, a reliance on pastoral animal husbandry and rain-fed agriculture, and the growing population with a tendency of urbanization, all combine to make Mongolia’s socio-economic development vulnerable to climate change.
Development of Mongolia’s INDC
Mongolia’s INDC has its conceptual roots in the Green Development Policy of Mongolia, approved by the Parliament in 2014, to which key sectoral action plans at the national level, including energy sector, are being adjusted. Key indicators for measuring progress in the implementation of the Green Development Policy include, among others, efficient use of energy, GHG emissions and ecological footprint per unit of GDP. The National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) endorsed by the Parliament 2011 includes concrete measures in response to climate change covering all principal sectors of the economy. These and other relevant national level policy documents served as a basis for the development of Mongolia’s INDC, which was shaped and finalized through comprehensive consultation exercises with a broad range of stakeholders.
Adaptation component
The melting of permafrost and glaciers, surface water shortages, and soil and pasture degradation have been identified as particular challenges faced by Mongolia as a result of climate change. Due to a high degree of vulnerability to climate change, adaptation is particularly important for Mongolia, and as such a distinct adaptation component is therefore included in the INDC. The selection of priorities for the adaptation component is based on a detailed analysis of the expected impacts, potential solutions and challenges, and of possible synergies between adaptation and mitigation activities (Part I).
Mitigation contribution
In its INDC, Mongolia has outlined a series of policies and measures that the country commits to implement up to 2030, in the energy, industry, agriculture and waste sectors. The expected mitigation impact of these policies and measures will be a 14% reduction in total national GHG emissions excluding Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 2030, compared to the projected emissions under a business as usual scenario. Those and other potentially more ambitious commitments are contingent upon gaining access to new technologies and sources of finance through internationally agreed mechanisms and instruments under the auspices of the UNFCCC (Part II).
Preface
10
Acknowledgement
Development of this document was undertaken by experienced national teams of specialists and professionals lead by Dr. Natsagdorj L. (Adaptation team: Bolortsetseg B., Bynie B., Davaa G., Davaadorj G., Dorjsuren Ch., Erdenetsetseg B., Gomboluudev P.), Dr. Batima. P. (Mitigation team: Dorjpurev J., Namkhainyam B.) and Dr. Batjargal Z. served as a lead advisor on the content and methodology of the work and essential contributions were made by the Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) supported international consultants: Inga Zachow (GIZ, Global INDC Support Programme), Koen Smekens, James Falzon and Matthew Halstead (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, ECN) Thomas Day (New Climate Institute, NCI) and the consultants from the UNEP-DTU Partnership Sudhir Sharma and Prakriti Naswa.
Preparation and compilation of this document were coordinated by the Climate Change Project Implementing Unit (CCPIU) of the Nature Conservation Fund (NCF) under the Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT) of Mongolia with technical and financial support from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Ms. Tegshjargal B. (project manager) and Ms. Solongo B. (project administrative assistant) were responsible for overall coordination activities on the implementation of the project under general guidance Mr. Batjargal Kh., director of the NCF. The rest staff of the CCPIU of NCF have provided invaluable support and contributed significantly to the success of the work. The policy support from the MEGDT and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and guidance of the relevant departments of these and other ministries have played an important role in the successful completion and authorization of the work. The valuable contribution of every entity and individual to this time consuming task and the skill and knowledge they have provided is highly appreciated.
Batjargal Zamba
National Focal Point for the UNFCCC
11
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 1
Climate Change AdaptationII
Climate Change Adaptation
12
Chapter 1
CHAPTER 1. RATIONALE AND PROCESS FOR DEVELOPING INDCs ON ADAPTATION
1.1. Adaptation Rationale
Mongolia is a landlocked country located in the centre of the Eurasian continent and in a temperate climate zone. Because of its location, ecosystems in Mongolia are unique and fragile to the livelihood of people. Therefore, socio-economic development of the country is highly vulnerable to climate change.
In the last 50 years, Mongolia faced challenges such as pasture degradation and desertification, shrinkage of habitats, decrease in the number of plant species and wild live, regular outbreaks of fires and water resource deficit in the steppe region as well as increased frequency and magnitude of climate disasters including drought and dzud. As a result, socio-economic negative impacts have been visible in ways of unstable variations in crop production, animal loss, increased migrant or “ecological refugees” from rural to urban, outbreaks of new diseases, epidemics and public health issues.
Apparently, adaptation strategies are required to be aligned with the country and sector development policies and planning under such climate change impacts on the environment, natural resources and socio economic sectors.
Although, separate laws do not regulate climate change issues, the concept and principles related to climate change are streamlined in the Comprehensive national development strategy. The “Technology Needs Assessment for Adaptation” emphasized 8 strategies and policies of development at national and sectoral level including climate change related chapters and articles (TNA, 2013). One of the framework documents is the National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC, 2011), which was updated and endorsed by the Parliament. The programme has defined 5 strategic objectives in two phases covered 2011-2021. Action plan for the first phase for 2011-2016 was approved by the Government Resolution No. 317. Within second strategic objective of the NAPCC, 13 actions have been reflected to improve adaptation capacity, ensure environmental sustainability and reduce vulnerability and risks of socio-economic sectors. Furthermore, Green Development Policy approved by the Parliament in 2014 includes climate change adaptation issues is one main target of the country development (MARCC, 2014).
The Long term Development Strategy (2015-2040), where climate change adaptation has been greatly emphasized, is under consideration for an approval by the Parliament. Fourth strategic direction of the strategy is entirely focusing on eco-friendly society through adapting to the climate change and risks prevention.
As above strategic documents and policies highlighted, adaptation requires more focus rather than mitigation because of high vulnerability of natural resources and socio-economic sectors to climate change. Accordingly, adaptation chapter has been included in the INDC report based on existing studies, analysis of adaptation processes, challenges faced and gaps. Through the gaps and barriers, corrective/priority actions and the support required to execute them in terms of finance, capacity and human resources has been defined. As a result, it will contribute to reduce vulnerability of the country to climate change and improve resilience of the nation.
13
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 2
CHAPTER 2. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS, IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES
2.1. Current climate change and future scenarios
The climate in Mongolia has a distinct four seasons, a wide range of temperature variation and low precipitation. Clear geographical pattern of climate variables can be seen depending on latitude and longitude. The annual mean temperature is -8oC to 8oC, the summer average is 10oC to 26oC and the winter average is -15oC to -30oC. The annual precipitation is about 50-400mm and 85% out of it falls in the warm season when intense rainfalls occur from convection process.
The climate change (as observed in the last 70 years) in Mongolia has the most intensified changes in thousands of years while Mongolians herd pastoral livestock. Consequently, these changes will cause serious risks and damage into socio-economic aspects that are highly dependent on weather and climate.
Observation records of 48 meteorological stations evenly scattered over Mongolia between 1940 and 2014 show that the annual mean temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 2.07oC, whereby more warming has occurred in mountainous areas and less increase in temperature has been observed in steppe and the Gobi desert. The warmest 10 years in last 74 years have occured since 1997 (Figure 2.1.a). Furthermore, average seasonal temperatures increased and summer warming has been in its highest rate (MARCC, 2014).
-3-2-101234
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Annu
al a
ir te
mpe
ratu
re, 0 C
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Annu
al p
reci
pita
tion,
mm
Figure 2.1. Changes in a) annual mean temperature, and b) annual precipitation in Mongolia between 1940 and 2014
Climate Change Adaptation
14
Chapter 2
For the same time period, the annual precipitation has experienced little decrease while winter precipitation has gradually increased and summer rain has slightly dropped (Figure 2.1.b). The highest precipitation decrease has been recorded in the central region of the country. Percentile of intensive rainfall has risen in the total precipitation of the growing season.
In general, climate extreme events such as number of days and duration of hot spells has grown and the number of cold days has reduced. Accordingly, the recorded maximum temperatures have changed in the recent years at meteorological stations.
The aridity index, defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (UNEP, 1992), estimated with 41 meteorological station’s data, shows a decline by 0.003 in the last 74 years. A declining aridity index signifies that the aridification has intensified in Mongolia.
Based on scenarios estimated by global models (10 Global Climate Models), air temperature in all four seasons continue to grow in the country. In comparison with the base period (1986-2005), temperature increases are expected to be 2.2oC in the near future (2016-2035); and 2.5oC, 3.5oC and 6.0oC in the future period of 2081-2100 depending on low, medium and high emission scenarios respectively. Figure 2.2 shows future changes in winter and summer temperatures under three emission scenarios.
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge,
0 C
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge,
0 C
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge,
0 C
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge,
0 C
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
Figure 2.2. Future temperature changes in a) winter and b) summer seasons, oC
(in comparison with the average temperatures during 1986-2005)
15
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 2
In the near future the seasonal precipitations will increase by 12% in winter, 9% in spring, 3% in summer and 7% in autumn. This trend will continue to grow in the end of the century and is estimated to be 15-50% increase in winter, 12-28% increase in spring, 5-8% increase in summer and 8-24% increase in autumn depending on emission scenarios.
Winter and summer seasons precipitation changes under three future emission scenarios are displayed in Figure 2.3.
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pre
cpita
tion
chan
ge,%
-50
0
50
100
150
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pre
cipi
tatio
n ch
ange
,%
-50
0
50
100
150
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pre
cpita
tion
chan
ge,%
-50
0
50
100
150
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pre
cipi
tatio
n ch
ange
,%
-50
0
50
100
150
RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP2.6
Figure 2.3. Future changes in precipitation in a) winter and b) summer seasons, %
(in comparison with the average of period of 1986-2005)
2.2. Impact of climate change, vulnerability and risks
The second Assessment report on climate change (MARCC, 2014) summarized current observed climate change, future estimation, and impact of climate change on nature, socio-economic sectors, vulnerability and risk assessment in Mongolia.
Although, there could be some positive impacts of climate change for Mongolia, the negative impacts are likely to dominate and pose serious threats to the sustainability of the socio-economic systems. Table 2.1 summarizes impacts and risks caused by climate change on
Climate Change Adaptation
16
Chapter 2
natural resources and socio-economic sectors and addresses the following:
• Change of climate variables under current climate change
• Key changes and impacts in the sectors
• Major results of expected impacts, vulnerability and risks assessment
• Actions and measure required to be taken
Based on the assessment, continuous warming in all seasons and decreased precipitation (especially in summer season) will lead to intensified droughts and dryness, which will adversely affect environmental and socio-economic sectors.
Ultimately, adaptation goal, objectives and actions should aim to reduce vulnerability and climate-induced risks of these sectors in alignment with development strategies, policies and plans of the country as well as international development directions.
Assessment of current and future impact of climate change confirms that animal husbandry, arable farming, human health, and natural resources including water, forest, pasture and soil are the most vulnerable sectors in Mongolia, and also reinforces the importance of natural disaster management.
17
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 2
Tab
le 2
.1. S
umm
ary
of c
limat
e ch
ange
impa
cts,
vul
nera
bilit
y an
d ris
k as
sess
men
t
No
Cha
nges
in c
limat
e an
d ris
k fa
ctor
s
Affe
cted
ar
ea/
sect
orC
urre
nt a
nd p
ast i
mpa
cts
in re
late
d ar
eas/
sec
tors
Futu
re im
pact
s, v
ulne
rabi
lity
and
risk
asse
ssm
ent
Act
ions
requ
ired
1. N
atur
al re
sour
ces
and
ecos
yste
ms
1.1
-Incr
ease
d te
mpe
ratu
re
in w
arm
sea
son
whi
ch
led
to h
ighe
r pot
entia
l ev
apot
rans
pira
tion
and
decr
ease
d pr
ecip
itatio
n,-E
xten
ded
num
ber o
f da
ys a
nd d
urat
ion
of
hot s
pells
,-M
ore
inte
nsity
and
m
agni
tude
of d
roug
hts
and
long
er d
ry s
pells
.
Pas
ture
an
d so
ils-P
astu
re p
rodu
ctio
n ha
s de
crea
sed
by 2
0-30
% in
the
past
40
year
s ba
sed
on p
astu
re o
bser
vatio
n da
ta,
-Abo
ut 7
0% o
f pas
ture
has
cha
nged
in c
erta
in a
spec
ts,
-Pas
ture
pla
nts
com
posi
tion
has
cha
nged
, eco
syst
em
zone
s ha
ve s
hifte
d an
d pl
ants
tole
rant
to d
roug
hts
have
be
com
e do
min
ant,
-Soi
l fer
tility
and
qua
lity
has
degr
aded
.
-Res
ults
from
“Cen
tury
” ec
osys
tem
mod
el s
how
ed th
at
for a
bove
grou
nd b
iom
ass,
net
pr
imar
y pr
oduc
tion
and
past
ure
biom
ass
wou
ld d
ecre
ase
by
10-4
0% fr
om c
urre
nt le
vels
in
natu
ral z
ones
,-S
oil o
rgan
ic c
arbo
n is
es
timat
ed to
be
redu
ced
by 6
.3-
9.5%
in th
e 20
50s
in th
e fo
rest
st
eppe
and
the
step
pe re
gion
s.
-Pas
ture
m
anag
emen
t,-E
cosy
stem
ba
sed
adap
tatio
n m
easu
res,
-Pas
ture
re
stor
atio
n.
1.2
-Dec
reas
ed
prec
ipita
tion
in w
arm
se
ason
s an
d in
crea
sed
evap
otra
nspi
ratio
n ra
tes,
-Ext
ende
d dr
y pe
riods
, an
d in
tens
e an
d lo
nger
dr
ough
ts,
-War
mer
soi
l dep
th
tem
pera
ture
s,-M
ore
visi
ble
war
min
g in
the
high
mou
ntai
ns
zone
s.
Fore
st e
co
syst
ems
-Are
a co
vere
d by
fore
sts
has
decr
ease
d by
4.1
% in
the
perio
d of
199
9-20
12,
-Fre
quen
cy o
f for
est fi
res
has
incr
ease
d an
d ar
ea b
urnt
by
fore
st fi
re h
as e
xpan
ded
by 1
3.3%
in 1
999-
2012
,-R
ecur
rent
dro
ught
and
dry
spe
lls a
ffect
neg
ativ
ely
the
fore
st b
iom
ass
accu
mul
atio
n an
d bi
omas
s an
nual
gro
wth
te
nd to
be
slow
er,
-For
est i
nsec
ts a
nd p
ests
tend
to c
over
mor
e ar
eas.
-In 2
050,
are
a af
fect
ed b
y ha
rmfu
l for
est
inse
cts
will
ex
pand
by
1.4–
13 ti
mes
hig
her
than
cur
rent
leve
l, -F
ores
t fire
will
cov
er m
ore
area
s by
512
thou
sand
hec
tare
in
203
0 w
ithou
t any
mea
sure
ag
ains
t fire
s,
-Are
as o
f the
hig
h m
ount
ains
an
d th
e fo
rest
ste
ppe
will
de
crea
se b
y 70
-80%
and
8-
41%
resp
ectiv
ely,
-P
erm
afro
st w
ill c
ontin
ue to
m
elt a
nd fo
rest
stri
ps b
orde
r in
the
high
mou
ntai
ns w
ould
shi
ft to
war
d th
e to
p of
mou
ntai
ns.
-For
est
man
agem
ent,
-Exp
and
fore
st
plan
tatio
ns.
Climate Change Adaptation
18
Chapter 2
1.3
-Incr
ease
in a
vera
ge
tem
pera
ture
in th
e co
ld
seas
on,
-Dec
reas
ed n
umbe
r of
cold
day
s,
-Red
uced
pre
cipi
tatio
n in
war
m s
easo
n an
d in
crea
sed
evap
otra
nspi
ratio
n,-S
now
cov
er a
nd ic
e m
eltin
g oc
cur e
arlie
r an
d riv
er ic
e du
ratio
n ha
s sh
orte
ned,
-D
ecre
ased
ice
dept
h in
rive
rs,
-An
inte
nsity
of r
ainf
all
incr
ease
d.
Wat
er
reso
urce
s,gl
acie
r, pe
rmaf
rost
-Sur
face
wat
er re
gim
e is
bei
ng c
hang
ed. L
ake
area
s ar
e de
crea
sing
and
dry
ing
up s
mal
l lak
es, s
prin
gs a
nd e
ven
som
e riv
ers,
-N
egat
ive
mas
s ba
lanc
e an
d sh
rinka
ge o
f gla
cier
s oc
cur
and
tota
l gla
cier
are
a ha
s re
duce
d by
27.
8% in
last
70
year
s,-Ic
e th
ickn
ess
of ri
vers
, dra
inin
g fro
m g
laci
ers
has
incr
ease
d by
4oC
m a
nd c
onse
quen
tly d
urat
ion
of
ice
cove
r per
iod
has
incr
ease
d by
10-
20 d
ays
and
decr
ease
d its
wat
er te
mpe
ratu
re,
-Dur
atio
n of
ice
cove
r per
iod
and
ice
thic
knes
s ha
ve
decr
ease
d by
20
days
and
by
35cm
resp
ectiv
ely
in
rest
of r
iver
s dr
aini
ng fr
om n
o gl
acie
r are
as. W
ater
te
mpe
ratu
re h
as in
crea
sed
by 2
°C,
- A g
roun
d w
ater
tabl
e is
tend
ing
to d
ecre
ase.
-The
ave
rage
wat
er
tem
pera
ture
of t
he p
erio
d of
A
pril
to O
ctob
er w
ill in
crea
se b
y 3.
1-4.
2o C b
y 20
80,
-Riv
er ru
n-of
f wou
ld in
crea
se
by 8
-13
mm
in 2
080,
whi
le
pote
ntia
l eva
pora
tion
will
in
crea
se s
ever
al ti
mes
,-T
he a
nnua
l gla
cier
mel
t rat
e or
nar
rativ
e m
ass
bala
nce
will
in
crea
se b
y 67
% c
ompa
red
to
mel
t rat
e of
198
2-20
10 p
erio
d,-T
empe
ratu
res
in th
e gr
ound
de
pth
of 1
0 an
d 15
m h
ave
been
incr
easi
ng in
the
north
ern
perm
afro
st re
gion
and
it te
nds
to d
ecre
ase
and
disa
ppea
r in
the
sout
hern
regi
on o
f the
co
untry
.
-Con
stru
ctio
n of
w
ater
rese
rvoi
rs
for r
iver
flow
re
gula
tion,
-Inte
grat
ed
wat
er re
sour
ces
man
agem
ent
of ri
ver b
asin
s (W
ater
law
, 20
12).
1.4
-Inte
nsifi
ed a
tmos
pher
ic
phen
omen
a ca
used
by
conv
ectio
n,-R
e-cu
rren
t ano
mal
ies
of a
tmos
pher
ic
circ
ulat
ion.
Nat
ural
di
sast
ers
-Fre
quen
cy o
f dis
astro
us p
heno
men
a in
the
last
two
deca
des
wer
e co
mpa
red:
ann
ually
, abo
ut 7
5 ph
enom
ena
wer
e ob
serv
ed in
the
prev
ious
ten
year
s an
d it
has
doub
led
in th
e la
st d
ecad
e,
-Rap
id o
nset
phe
nom
ena
such
as
heav
y ra
in, fl
ash
flood
, stro
ng w
ind,
thun
ders
torm
, and
hai
l hav
e be
en
mor
e fre
quen
t and
inte
nse
and
econ
omic
loss
due
to
disa
ster
s ha
s do
uble
d,-F
requ
enci
es o
f dro
ught
and
dzu
d ar
e in
cres
ing
and
the
bigg
est d
dzud
occ
urre
d in
win
ters
of 2
002/
2003
and
20
09/2
010
whe
n G
DP
has
decr
ease
d by
at l
east
6%
, -A
bout
77.
8% o
f the
tota
l lan
d of
Mon
golia
has
ex
perie
nced
deg
rada
tion
and
dese
rtific
atio
n at
the
certa
in e
xten
t.
-Fre
quen
cy o
f atm
osph
eric
ha
zard
ous
phen
omen
a w
ill
incr
ease
by
23-6
0% th
an
curr
ent l
evel
in th
e m
iddl
e of
the
cent
ury,
-Liv
esto
ck lo
ss d
ue to
dro
ught
an
d dz
ud is
exp
ecte
d to
in
crea
se b
y 9.
4% in
205
0 w
hich
is
abo
ut 2
.1%
as
of 1
981-
2000
,-L
and
degr
adat
ion
and
dese
rtific
atio
n w
ould
lead
to
incr
ease
d ev
apot
rans
pira
tion
and
decr
ease
d ra
infa
ll as
a
resu
lt of
reve
rse
feed
back
m
echa
nism
.
-Ear
ly w
arni
ng
syst
em
of n
atur
al
disa
ster
s,-In
dex
base
d in
sura
nce,
-C
ontin
genc
y pl
an/ G
uide
line
for E
mer
genc
y E
vacu
atio
n.
19
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 2
2. M
ajor
soc
io-e
cono
mic
sec
tors
2.1
-Incr
ease
d w
inte
r pr
ecip
itatio
n,-F
requ
ent d
roug
hts
and
dzud
, -In
crea
sed
tem
pera
ture
and
ev
apot
rans
pira
tion
in w
arm
sea
son
and
decr
ease
d pr
ecip
itatio
n,-L
onge
r hot
spe
lls a
nd
heat
wav
es.
Ani
mal
hu
sban
dry
-Cur
rent
leve
l of a
nim
al lo
ss is
abo
ut 2
%
and
this
rate
has
incr
ease
d by
0.2
5% p
er
year
in th
e pe
riod
of 1
991-
2011
, -T
he a
vera
ge a
nim
al w
eigh
t has
de
crea
sed,
-P
astu
re p
rodu
ctio
n ha
s re
duce
d an
d nu
mbe
r of h
ot d
ays
whi
ch m
ake
graz
ing
diffi
cult
for l
ives
tock
hav
e in
crea
sed,
-Dat
es fo
r goa
t cas
hmer
e an
d sh
eep
woo
l sh
earin
g ha
ve a
dvan
ced
by 5
-10
days
,-In
the
last
yea
rs, 2
6 ne
w d
isea
ses,
8
re-o
ccur
ring
and
6 ex
tend
ing
dise
ases
of
ani
mal
s ha
ve b
een
reco
rded
in th
e co
untry
.
-Ani
mal
loss
es c
ause
d by
dro
ught
an
d dz
ud w
ill in
crea
se a
nd h
ave
been
es
timat
ed a
t 8.2
% a
nd 9
.4%
in 2
020
and
2050
resp
ectiv
ely,
-S
now
in w
inte
r is
pred
icte
d to
in
crea
se b
y 40
-50%
and
hea
vy s
now
w
ill c
ause
neg
ativ
e im
pact
on
graz
ing
and
decr
ease
d an
imal
wei
ght,
-Due
to a
nim
al w
eigh
t los
s, th
e to
tal m
eat p
rodu
ctio
n is
exp
ecte
d to
de
crea
se b
y 5.
4% in
205
0s,
-Pas
ture
wat
er s
uppl
ies
will
be
chal
leng
ing
beca
use
of d
ecre
ased
sm
all l
akes
and
wat
er p
onds
cau
sed
by in
tens
ified
dry
ness
.
-Impr
oved
ani
mal
br
eeds
,-R
egul
ate
and
man
age
anim
al
num
bers
in a
lignm
ent
with
pas
ture
car
ryin
g ca
paci
ty,
-Inte
grat
ion
of
tradi
tiona
l pas
tora
l liv
esto
ck w
ith
inte
nsifi
ed fa
rmin
g of
an
imal
s,-M
aint
ain
appr
opria
te
ratio
bet
wee
n ty
pes
of a
nim
als
and
herd
s co
mpo
sitio
n.
2.2
-Lon
ger h
ot s
pells
and
he
at w
aves
, -In
crea
sed
dryn
ess
and
decr
ease
d so
il m
oist
ure,
-Mor
e fre
quen
t dr
ough
ts.
Ara
ble
farm
ing
-Hot
spe
lls (a
bove
26o C
) inh
ibit
phot
osyn
thes
is p
roce
ss in
cro
ps a
nd
redu
ce p
rodu
ctio
n,-D
ryne
ss p
roce
ss h
as b
een
inte
nsifi
ed in
th
e ar
able
farm
ing
regi
on in
the
last
70
year
s. P
rodu
ctiv
e m
oist
ure
in 1
m la
yer o
f so
il ha
s re
duce
d by
abo
ut 3
0%,
-Alth
ough
, cum
ulat
ive
heat
has
bee
n su
ffici
ent,
moi
stur
e ha
s be
com
e la
ckin
g fo
r cro
p gr
owth
and
dev
elop
men
t.
-Res
ults
of D
SS
AT 4
.0 c
rop
prod
uctio
n m
odel
dem
onst
rate
d th
at w
heat
pro
duct
ion
per h
ecta
re is
es
timat
ed to
dec
reas
e by
13%
in th
e 20
30s.
-Incr
ease
drip
irr
igat
ion
syst
em
cove
rage
,-A
ppro
pria
te c
rop
rota
tion
syst
ems,
-Incr
ease
min
imum
til
lage
for c
rops
,-In
trodu
ce d
roug
ht
resi
stan
t cro
p va
rietie
s.
Climate Change Adaptation
20
Chapter 2
2.3
-Lon
ger h
ot s
pells
and
he
at w
aves
,-In
tens
ified
hea
vy
rain
s,-L
onge
r gro
win
g se
ason
for c
rops
.
Hum
an h
ealth
-Car
diov
ascu
lar d
isea
se h
as in
crea
sed
in th
e la
st 3
1 ye
ars
(Bur
maa
jav
B. e
t al.,
20
10),
-Car
diov
ascu
lar d
isea
ses
case
s in
U
laan
baat
ar c
ity h
as in
crea
sed
whi
le
the
num
ber o
f hot
day
s ab
ove
30 o C
has
be
en in
crea
sed,
-A n
umbe
r of a
ffect
ed p
opul
atio
n by
na
tura
l dis
aste
rs te
nd to
incr
ease
.
-Cas
es o
f car
diov
ascu
lar d
isea
ses
will
con
tinue
to in
crea
se d
ue to
hot
sp
ells
and
hot
wav
es,
-Vec
tor-
born
e in
fect
ious
dis
ease
s w
ould
incr
ease
.
-Res
earc
h an
d de
velo
pmen
t (R
&D
) in
hea
lth c
are
syst
em fo
r clim
ate
rela
ted
mor
bidi
ty a
nd
mor
talit
y,
-Ear
ly w
arni
ng fr
om
hot s
pells
and
hot
w
aves
. 2.
4-In
crea
sed
num
ber
of in
cide
nts
of h
eavy
sn
ow a
nd ra
ins,
-Mor
e fre
quen
t stro
ng
snow
and
dus
t sto
rms.
Infra
stru
ctur
e-F
requ
ency
of e
xtre
me
even
ts a
nd th
eir
mag
nitu
de h
as in
crea
sed
sign
ifica
ntly
in
the
last
20
year
s.
-Incr
ease
d he
avy
rain
falls
and
flo
ods
will
cau
se d
amag
es to
road
s,
build
ings
, brid
ges
and
cons
truct
ions
th
ereb
y re
duci
ng th
eir u
sefu
l life
span
, -E
lect
ricity
tran
smis
sion
cab
les
and
syst
ems
can
be b
roke
n do
wn
by
heav
y sn
ow a
nd ic
e fre
ezes
,-F
lood
pro
tect
ion
cana
ls, h
ydro
pla
nt
cons
truct
ions
and
nor
mal
wor
king
re
gim
e ca
n be
dam
aged
by
wat
er
regi
me
chan
ges.
-Ren
ew c
onst
ruct
ion
andd
evis
e ap
prop
riate
tech
nica
l st
anda
rds,
-Impr
oved
des
igns
an
d re
trofit
s fo
r m
ore
resi
lient
in
frast
ruct
ure.
21
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 3
CHAPTER 3. REPORTING ON LONG-TERM AND NEAR-TERM ADAPTATION VISIONS, GOALS AND TARGETS
3.1. Adaptation goals and targets
Adaptation aims to increase adaptive capacity and to reduce risk and vulnerabilities of the most vulnerable sectors of Mongolia. Therefore, vision, goal and objectives have been defined as followed. Here, infrastructure and human health are not considered, because there is a lack of future impact study.
Vision of adaptation
Increased adaptive capacity to overcome negative impacts of climate change, and to strengthen the resilience of ecosystem and socio-economic sectors. The climate change adaptation aims to reduce risks and vulnerabilities for the following sectors:
• Animal husbandry aims to maintain ecosystem balance through improving pasture management.
• Arable farming aspires to meet the total national need in crops by reducing bare fallow and soil moisture loss, introducing medium and long-term maturity varieties of crops, increased irrigation with water saving technologies including snow, and rainwater harvesting.
• Water resources sector’s objectives are to expand state protected areas covering especially headwater areas of river basins, where 70% of total runoff are formed, to ensure proper use of water resources, and to strengthen integrated water resource management in river basins.
• Forest resource aims to reduce forest degradation, and to implement reforestation and sustainable forest management strategies.
• Natural disaster management seeks to build effective disaster management to prevent environmental and socio-economic losses.
3.1.1. National and sectoral adaptation goals and targets
Adaptation goals and targets for each sector have been defined based on outcomes, process and needs (Table 3.1).
Climate Change Adaptation
22
Chapter 3
Tab
le 3
.1. N
atio
nal a
nd s
ecto
ral a
dapt
atio
n go
als
and
targ
ets
Goa
ls ty
pes
Leve
lTa
rget
sTi
mef
ram
e
1. A
nim
al h
usba
ndry
and
pas
ture
Pro
cess
bas
ed
Nat
iona
l -R
educ
e pa
stur
e de
grad
atio
n th
roug
h re
gula
ting
head
coun
ts o
f ani
mal
and
mat
chin
g ca
rryi
ng c
apac
ity:
• Cre
ate
a le
gal e
nviro
nmen
t and
form
ulat
e pa
stur
e la
w fo
r pas
ture
rela
tions
regu
latio
n.
-Dev
elop
inte
nsifi
ed a
nd tr
aditi
onal
live
stoc
k in
inte
grat
ed a
nd c
ombi
ned
way
s:• F
orm
ulat
e po
licy
to d
evel
op tr
aditi
onal
pas
tora
l liv
esto
ck in
the
wes
tern
and
the
Gob
i des
ert r
egio
ns
and
grad
ual a
dvan
ce to
inte
nsifi
ed a
nd in
dust
rial f
arm
ing
in th
e ot
her r
egio
ns.
2018
-202
5
Sec
tora
l -S
et u
p ta
xatio
n m
echa
nism
for p
astu
re u
sage
dep
endi
ng o
n an
imal
type
and
regi
onal
con
text
and
use
fin
anci
al re
sour
ces
for p
astu
re im
prov
emen
t act
ions
: • A
t lea
st 7
0% o
f the
abo
ve m
entio
ned
reve
nue
shou
ld b
e sp
ent f
or p
astu
re re
stor
atio
n.• I
mpr
ove
loca
l leve
l coo
rdin
atio
n m
echa
nism
for a
nim
al m
igra
ting
from
oth
er s
oum
s fo
r bet
ter p
astu
re.
2020
-202
5
Nee
ds b
ased
N
atio
nal
-Cap
acity
bui
ldin
g an
d aw
aren
ess
rais
ing
cam
paig
ns o
n po
licie
s an
d gu
idel
ines
abo
ut p
astu
re c
arry
ing
capa
city
, for
age
capa
city
and
goo
d pr
actic
es fo
r pas
ture
:• I
ncre
ase
citiz
en p
artic
ipat
ion
in u
sage
and
impr
ovem
ent f
or n
atur
al g
reen
pas
ture
of M
ongo
lia.
• Bui
ld c
apac
ity o
f pas
ture
spe
cial
ists
and
exp
erts
and
re-tr
ain
them
.• D
evel
op p
astu
re m
anag
emen
t cou
rses
and
incl
ude
in th
e cu
rric
ulum
for a
gric
ultu
re s
peci
alis
ts
train
ing
of re
late
d un
iver
sitie
s an
d in
stitu
tes.
2018
-202
5
Sec
tora
l-M
aint
ain
and
cont
rol n
umbe
r of a
nim
als
and
herd
s co
mpo
sitio
n ac
cord
ing
to lo
cal p
astu
re c
apac
ity a
nd c
onte
xt:
• Tra
in h
erde
rs a
nd lo
cal s
peci
alis
ts a
bout
pas
ture
con
ditio
n an
d pr
actic
es fo
r app
ropr
iate
usa
ge in
al
ignm
ent w
ith c
arry
ing
capa
city
of p
astu
re.
• Dev
elop
gui
delin
es fo
r coo
rdin
atio
n of
ani
mal
s an
d lo
cal p
astu
re c
arry
ing
capa
city
and
pro
vide
te
chni
cal s
uppo
rt.
• Im
prov
e m
arke
t acc
ess
at n
atio
nal a
nd in
tern
atio
nal m
eat p
rodu
ctio
n.• P
rovi
de te
chni
cal s
uppo
rt an
d re
com
men
datio
ns fo
r res
torin
g tra
ditio
nal b
est p
ract
ices
and
m
aint
aini
ng h
erds
com
posi
tion
in a
lignm
ent w
ith p
astu
re c
ondi
tion.
2020
-203
0
23
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 3
2. A
rabl
e fa
rmin
g
Out
com
e ba
sed
Nat
iona
l-In
crea
se c
rop
prod
uctio
n to
fulfi
l nat
iona
l con
sum
ptio
n fo
r cro
ps (e
xcep
t sug
ar p
lant
s an
d ric
e) th
roug
h pr
otec
tion
of s
oil f
ertil
ity:
• Soi
l moi
stur
e m
aint
enan
ce, r
educ
ing
bare
fallo
w a
rea
dow
n to
30%
, app
lyin
g pr
oper
irrig
atio
n m
etho
ds
and
wat
er s
avin
g te
chno
logi
es; a
nd s
uppl
y an
d pr
oduc
e an
imal
fora
ges.
• Red
uce
soil
degr
adat
ion
by a
t lea
st 4
0%; r
e-us
age
of a
ll ab
ando
ned
agric
ultu
re la
nd.
• Inc
reas
e irr
igat
ed c
ropl
and
and
redu
ce p
rodu
ctio
n va
riatio
ns b
y 40
% fo
r cer
eals
and
60%
for
vege
tabl
es.
• Inc
reas
e irr
igat
ed a
reas
by
2-2.
5 tim
es th
an c
urre
nt le
vel;
appl
y w
ater
sav
ing
tech
nolo
gies
in a
t lea
st
50%
of p
otat
o pl
antin
g an
d in
70%
of f
ruit
bush
es a
nd tr
ee p
lant
atio
ns a
nd re
duce
wat
er u
sage
by
50%
in
ara
ble
farm
ing.
2018
-203
0
Nee
ds b
ased
S
ecto
ral
-Incr
ease
ann
ual c
rop
prod
uctio
n at
leve
l of 1
00 th
ousa
nd to
nnes
of m
illet
, oil
plan
ts a
nd ry
e fo
r eac
h an
d 30
th
ousa
nd to
nnes
of b
eans
and
pea
s fo
r foo
d to
mee
t pop
ulat
ion
cons
umpt
ion:
• Inc
reas
e ty
pes
of c
rops
for r
otat
ion
syst
em.
• Stre
ngth
en a
nd s
uppo
rt sp
ecia
lized
ent
ities
who
man
ufac
ture
and
impo
rt ag
ricul
ture
mac
hine
ry,
equi
pmen
t, fe
rtiliz
ers
and
crop
pro
tect
ion
prod
ucts
.• I
ntro
duce
win
ter c
rops
suc
h as
whe
at a
nd ry
e in
ord
er to
redu
ce re
lianc
e on
onl
y su
mm
er c
rops
.• I
ntro
duce
sno
w w
ater
har
vest
ing
tech
nolo
gies
in o
rder
to e
nsur
e su
stai
nabl
e ha
rves
ting.
• Exp
and
prod
uctio
n of
fora
ge p
lant
s, o
il an
d le
gum
es fo
r foo
d as
wel
l as
fora
ges
at le
ast t
wic
e th
an th
e cu
rren
t lev
el.
•Est
ablis
h br
anch
es o
f Pro
mot
ion
Fund
of A
rabl
e Fa
rmin
g (P
FAF)
in th
e ea
ster
n an
d th
e w
este
rn
agric
ultu
re re
gion
s an
d st
orag
e co
mpl
exes
with
a c
apac
ity o
f 70-
150
thou
sand
tonn
es fo
r Sta
te
Res
erve
s of
cer
eals
.
2020
-203
0
3. W
ater
reso
urce
s
Out
com
e ba
sed
Nat
iona
l-M
aint
ain
avai
labi
lity
of w
ater
reso
urce
s th
roug
h pr
otec
tion
of ru
n-of
f for
mat
ion
zone
s an
d th
eir n
ativ
e ec
osys
tem
s in
rive
r bas
ins:
• Inc
reas
e st
ate
prot
ecte
d ar
eas
up to
25-
30%
of t
he to
tal t
errit
ory
incl
udin
g up
stre
am a
rea
of ri
vers
in
orde
r to
mai
ntai
n na
tura
l eco
syst
ems
and
wat
er re
sour
ces
and
ensu
re s
usta
inab
le fi
nanc
ial m
echa
nism
.
2020
-203
0
Sec
tora
l-In
trodu
ce w
ater
sav
ing
and
wat
er tr
eatm
ent t
echn
olog
ies.
2020
-203
0C
ross
cut
ting
risks
and
im
pact
s
-To
enha
nce
hydr
olog
ical
and
wat
er q
ualit
y m
onito
ring
syst
ems
and
serv
ices
thro
ugh
intro
duci
ng a
dvan
ced
mon
itorin
g te
chni
ques
:• T
o es
tabl
ish
flood
and
wat
er s
horta
ge e
arly
war
ning
sys
tem
and
pro
tect
ion,
wat
er a
lloca
ting
infra
stru
ctur
es to
enh
ance
risk
man
agem
ent.
2020
-203
0
Climate Change Adaptation
24
Chapter 3
Pro
cess
ba
sed
Nat
iona
l-In
tegr
ated
wat
er re
sour
ce m
anag
emen
t and
mul
ti-st
akeh
olde
r inv
olve
men
t will
be
enha
nced
thro
ugh
impr
oved
lega
l pol
icie
s, e
ffici
ent m
anag
emen
t and
cap
acity
bui
ldin
g:• I
mpl
emen
tatio
n of
Inte
grat
ed w
ater
reso
urce
s m
anag
emen
t pro
gram
mes
and
pla
ns in
29
river
bas
ins.
2020
-202
5
Sec
tora
l-T
o co
nduc
t fea
sibi
lity
stud
ies
for t
he c
onst
ruct
ion
of h
ydro
pow
er s
tatio
ns a
t Sel
enge
(380
MW
), E
g (3
15M
W)
and
Ork
hon
(100
MW
) riv
ers
and
poss
ible
impl
emen
tatio
ns.
2020
-202
5
Cro
ss c
uttin
g ris
ks a
nd
impa
cts
-Con
duct
det
aile
d as
sess
men
t of w
ater
reso
urce
s in
the
mos
t vul
nera
ble
regi
ons
to c
limat
e ch
ange
; alig
n th
e re
gion
al a
nd s
ecto
ral d
evel
opm
ent p
olic
ies
and
plan
ning
and
impl
emen
t eco
syst
em b
ased
ada
ptat
ion
stra
tegi
es in
rive
r bas
ins
• Im
prov
e ec
osys
tem
ser
vice
s th
roug
h ta
king
mea
sure
s fo
r wat
er a
lloca
tion
to d
ryin
g la
kes,
loca
ted
in
flood
plai
n ar
eas
and
refo
rest
atio
n; fa
cilit
ate
awar
enes
s ra
isin
g ab
out b
enefi
ts a
nd re
sults
to p
ublic
and
in
crea
se fu
ndin
g fo
r nat
ure
cons
erva
tion
and
rest
orat
ion
by a
t lea
st 2
0%.
• Con
stru
ctio
n of
wat
er re
serv
oirs
of 2
0 cu
b.km
for h
arve
stin
g gl
acie
r mel
t wat
er in
Alta
i Mts
. and
rive
r w
ater
in A
rctic
rive
r bas
in in
Mon
golia
.
2020
-202
5
Nee
ds b
ased
Nat
iona
l-Im
prov
e w
ater
sup
ply
• Wat
er re
gula
tions
of r
iver
s (O
rkho
n, S
elen
ge, T
uul,
Kho
vd, B
ulga
n, K
halk
h, O
non,
Eg,
Kha
rkhi
raa,
Tu
rgen
, Shi
shkh
ed, E
roo,
Kha
raa,
Tam
ir an
d B
ogd
river
s), c
onst
ruct
ion
of w
ater
rese
rvoi
rs a
nd c
ondu
ct
stud
ies
on p
ossi
bilit
ies
to tr
ansf
er w
ater
to c
over
wat
er d
eman
d in
dry
regi
ons.
• Im
prov
ed w
ater
sup
ply
focu
sed
on b
eing
90%
and
san
itatio
n w
ill b
e 60
% o
f tot
al p
opul
atio
n.
• Con
stru
ctio
n of
wat
er p
onds
of 2
5.0
mln
cub
.m fo
r irr
igat
ion
of 1
0,00
0 ha
of c
ropl
and.
• T
o im
prov
e w
ater
sup
ply
to c
over
wat
er d
eman
d fo
r Ula
anba
atar
city
, ind
ustri
es in
the
Gob
i reg
ion
(coa
l m
inin
g of
Shi
vee-
Ovo
o an
d Ta
van
Tolg
oi, c
oal p
roce
ssin
g fa
ctor
y in
Cho
ir an
d N
yalg
a) a
nd o
ther
food
an
d co
nstru
ctio
n in
dust
ries.
2020
-203
0
Cro
ss c
uttin
g ris
ks a
nd
impa
cts
-Enc
oura
ge to
uris
m d
evel
opm
ent (
hiki
ng, b
ikin
g an
d ex
trem
e to
uris
ms)
and
requ
ired
infra
stru
ctur
e in
bas
ins
vuln
erab
le to
clim
ate
chan
ge a
nd w
ith h
igh
risks
of a
gric
ultu
re a
nd li
vest
ock
bree
ding
.20
20-2
030
4. F
ores
try
Out
com
e ba
sed
Nat
iona
l-In
crea
se a
rea
cove
red
by fo
rest
up
to 8
.3%
. -R
educ
e fo
rest
fire
affe
cted
are
as b
y 30
%.
-Set
ting
up m
onito
ring
and
cont
rolli
ng s
yste
m o
f for
est p
ests
and
inse
cts
whi
ch c
over
at l
east
60-
90%
in
affe
cted
are
as.
-For
est c
lear
ing
logs
/act
iviti
es w
ill b
e co
nduc
ted
in 3
0 th
ousa
nd h
a in
ord
er to
incr
ease
esp
ecia
lly re
lativ
ely
youn
g fo
rest
pro
duct
ion.
2020
-203
0
25
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 3
Pro
cess
ba
sed
Sec
tora
l-In
crea
se a
rea
of fo
rest
and
con
duct
refo
rest
atio
n ac
tiviti
es th
roug
h tre
e nu
rser
y us
ing
high
qua
lity
tree
seed
s an
d se
edlin
gs re
sist
ant t
o dr
ough
ts a
nd d
ryne
ss a
nd tr
ee p
lant
atio
ns in
def
ores
ted
area
s.-P
rote
ct fo
rest
s, it
s ec
osys
tem
s an
d bi
olog
ical
div
ersi
ties
from
hum
an in
appr
opria
te a
ctiv
ities
, for
est fi
res,
in
sect
s an
d di
seas
es a
nd re
duce
the
rate
of d
efor
esta
tion.
-Incr
ease
fore
st p
rodu
ctio
n th
roug
h pl
anta
tions
, cle
aran
ce a
nd n
urse
ry a
ctio
ns, a
nd s
usta
inab
le
man
agem
ent i
n or
der t
o m
aint
ain
prop
er c
ompo
sitio
n an
d de
nsity
ada
pted
to c
limat
e ch
ange
.-Im
prov
e fo
rest
reso
urce
usa
ge th
roug
h en
viro
nmen
t frie
ndly
tech
nolo
gies
and
man
agem
ent f
or lo
cal
cont
ext a
nd w
ood
prod
uctio
n ef
ficie
ncy.
-Im
plem
ent p
hase
d pr
ojec
ts a
nd p
rogr
amm
es to
redu
ce G
HG
em
issi
ons
caus
ed b
y fo
rest
dec
reas
e an
d de
grad
atio
n.-F
ully
impl
emen
t for
est s
usta
inab
le m
anag
emen
t thr
ough
sam
plin
g an
d gr
adua
l log
ging
met
hods
.
2020
-203
0
5. N
atur
al d
isas
ter m
anag
emen
t
Pro
cess
ba
sed
Nat
iona
l-E
nsur
e ef
fect
ive
disa
ster
risk
redu
ctio
n an
d re
spon
se s
yste
m th
roug
h m
ulti-
stak
ehol
der a
nd c
ross
-leve
l in
tegr
atio
n an
d co
ordi
natio
n.20
18-2
025
Cro
ss c
uttin
g im
pact
s an
d ris
ks
-Impr
ove
coor
dina
tion
of k
ey s
take
hold
ers
thro
ugh
real
tim
e an
d re
liabl
e da
ta a
nd in
form
atio
n sh
arin
g.20
18-2
020
Sec
tora
l-S
treng
then
pol
icie
s, s
yste
ms,
cap
acity
and
reso
urce
s to
ens
ure
bette
r res
ilien
ce to
ove
rcom
e di
sast
ers.
20
18-2
025
Nee
ds b
ased
Sec
tora
l-E
nsur
e pr
oper
dec
isio
n m
akin
g in
a ti
mel
y m
anne
r usi
ng re
al-ti
me
and
relia
ble
info
rmat
ion
base
d on
the
asse
ssm
ent o
f haz
ards
and
vul
nera
bilit
ies.
20
20-2
030
-Ens
ure
impl
emen
tatio
n of
dis
aste
r ris
k re
duct
ion
and
man
agem
ent a
ctiv
ities
at n
atio
nal t
o lo
cal l
evel
s.20
20-2
030
Climate Change Adaptation
26
Chapter 3
3.1.2. Prioritization of adaptation goals and targets
Sectors, adaptation goals and targets were prioritized based on impacts, urgency and likelihood defined in Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scores were given by sector experts in discussions (see Annex 1). This prioritization is an integrated analysis of adaptation goals and targets considering adaptation needs and reasons based on future impacts and risks assessment.
3.1.3. Adaptation-mitigation benefits
Adaptation actvities under the goal and target may lead to the reduction in GHG emissions/sink as mitigation co-benefits and maintain ecosystem balance as keeping resilience and adaptive capacity. Table 3.2 shows possible co-benefits in different sectors.
In general, carbon sinks of natural ecosystems will be increased with a capacity to absorb almost a half of the CO2 emissions from the energy sector in the country by implementing adaptation policies in agriculture, forestry, and water resource sectors.
Table 3.2. Possible adaptation co-benefits
Sector Adaptation activities Possible co-benefits
Livestock and pasture (land use)
Reducing pasture degradation through sustainable pasture management.
The sector targets to 29 million tonnes CO2 or 1/3 of GHG emission reduction per year through applying effective regulation of animals headcounts based on pasture carrying capacity and improved pasture management.
Forest Applying forest sustainable management, increase forest area up to 9% and reduce forest fire affected areas by 30%.
Increase forest carbon sink and reduce GHG emissions due to the fire by 2-5%.
Arable farming Reduce bare soil fallow down up to 30% in /rain-fed/ none irrigated cropland through increasing species crops, zero tillage and crop rotation.
This practice exacerbates the loss of soil organic decomposition and increases carbon sink.
Water Increase state protected areas up to 25-30% of the total territory.
Maintain natural wild ecosystems and water resources.
27
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 4
CHAPTER 4. CURRENT AND PLANNED ADAPTATION UNDERTAKINGS AND SUPPORT
Current and planned (until 2021) adaptation undertakings and support aim to maintain long-term ecological balance and to ensure streamlining economic and social development in alignment with climate change through reducing risks and vulnerabilities and improving adaptive capacity. Therefore, necessary adaptation undertakings have been included in National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) as cross-cutting actions and in strategies and plans, especially for vulnerable sectors.
In the following sections, current and planned undertakings and supports are summarized (Table 4.1 to 4.3).
4.1. Financial
Climate Change Adaptation
28
Chapter 4
Tab
le 4
.1. I
mpl
emen
tatio
n of
clim
ate
chan
ge a
dapt
atio
n un
derta
king
s an
d su
ppor
ts
Sec
tor
Cur
rent
and
pla
nned
un
derta
king
s S
trate
gy o
r P
rogr
amm
e na
me
Cur
rent
sta
tus
of im
plem
enta
tion
Res
ourc
e an
d fu
ndin
g
Nat
iona
lIn
tern
atio
nal
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e
To c
oord
inat
e a
num
ber
of a
nim
als
and
herd
s co
mpo
sitio
n al
igne
d w
ith
past
ure
carr
ying
cap
aciti
es a
t re
gion
al le
vels
.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
Gov
ernm
ent h
as p
ropo
sed
amen
dmen
ts in
Law
of
Mon
golia
on
Land
and
dev
elop
ed g
uide
lines
for p
astu
re
land
usa
ge ta
xatio
n ba
sed
on th
e nu
mbe
r of a
nim
als,
ty
pes
and
regi
onal
con
text
s.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To e
nsur
e an
effe
ctiv
e co
ordi
natio
n of
pas
ture
us
age
and
rese
rve
at
leas
t 10%
pas
ture
for o
tor
mov
emen
t at p
rovi
ncia
l and
lo
cal l
evel
s w
hich
can
be
used
dur
ing
disa
ster
s.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
Ther
e ar
e 7
site
s of
rese
rve
otor
pas
ture
for a
spe
cial
pu
rpos
e at
pro
vinc
ial l
evel
s w
hich
occ
upy
679
thou
sand
ha
or 0
.6%
of t
he to
tal p
astu
rela
nd. A
t sou
m (c
ount
ry
subd
ivis
ion)
leve
ls, t
here
is 1
.8 m
illio
n ha
pas
ture
whi
ch
can
be u
sed
as re
serv
e pa
stur
e du
ring
disa
ster
s.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To u
se e
nviro
nmen
t, hu
man
an
d an
imal
-frie
ndly
and
ad
vanc
ed te
chno
logi
es
agai
nst p
astu
re in
sect
s an
d ro
dent
s.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
Eve
ry y
ear,
the
Gov
ernm
ent b
udge
ts 1
mill
ion
US
D
and
faci
litat
e en
viro
nmen
t frie
ndly
mea
sure
s ba
sed
on
mon
itorin
g an
d su
rvey
s.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To c
ondu
ct w
ater
sur
vey
and
expl
orat
ion
base
d on
lo
cal h
erde
rs in
itiat
ives
and
es
tabl
ish
wat
er w
ells
with
w
ater
rese
rvoi
rs.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
In th
e re
cent
yea
rs, a
lmos
t 100
0 w
ater
wel
ls w
ere
esta
blis
hed
by th
e G
over
nmen
t bud
get a
nd in
tern
atio
nal
proj
ects
fund
ing
and
hand
ed o
ver t
o he
rder
s gr
oups
. In
the
step
pe re
gion
, ren
ewab
le e
nerg
y, li
ke s
olar
and
w
ind,
are
bei
ng u
sed
for g
roun
d w
ells
ope
ratio
ns w
hich
ar
e fin
anci
ally
effi
cien
t to
save
fuel
s an
d en
viro
nmen
t-fri
endl
y.
Gov
ernm
ent
Inte
rnat
iona
l pr
ojec
ts
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e
To b
reed
hig
h pr
oduc
tion
cattl
e to
incr
ease
mea
t pr
oduc
tion
and
ultim
atel
y to
redu
ce th
e nu
mbe
r of
past
oral
ani
mal
in w
inte
r.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
In 2
012,
mea
t pro
duct
ion
cattl
e an
d sh
eep
have
sta
rted
to b
reed
in 1
0 so
ums
and
abou
t 120
0 ca
ttle
of h
igh
prod
uctio
n w
ere
impo
rted
from
Fra
nce
and
Ger
man
y.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
29
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 4
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e
To in
trodu
ce m
oder
n, a
dvan
ced
tech
nolo
gies
in p
asto
ral a
nim
al
husb
andr
y an
d he
rder
s liv
elih
ood,
to
scal
e up
trad
ition
al b
est p
ract
ices
, to
impl
emen
t pro
ject
s an
d pr
ogra
mm
es
whi
ch a
im to
adv
ocat
e fo
r life
styl
es
and
man
agem
ent s
kills
alig
ned
with
ec
osys
tem
cha
nges
and
clim
ate
chan
ges
and
to ra
ise
publ
ic a
war
enes
s an
d tra
inin
gs.
“Nat
iona
l S
ecur
ity
Con
cept
”, 20
10
Sev
eral
inte
rnat
iona
l pro
ject
s ha
ve b
een
impl
emen
ted
in o
rder
to d
evel
op c
limat
e ch
ange
ad
apta
tion
know
ledg
e an
d sk
ills,
to im
prov
e pa
stur
e m
anag
emen
t, to
enc
oura
ge to
trad
ition
al b
est
prac
tices
and
mod
ern
adva
nced
met
hods
. As
a re
sult
one
third
of h
erde
rs h
ouse
hold
s ha
ve jo
ined
he
rder
s vo
lunt
ary
grou
ps a
nd a
ttend
ed in
trai
ning
s an
d aw
aren
ess
cam
paig
ns.
-
Wor
ld B
ank
(WB
), A
sian
D
evel
opm
ent
Ban
k (A
DB
), Fo
od a
nd
Agr
icul
ture
O
rgan
izat
ion
(FA
O),
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Mill
enni
um
Cha
lleng
e A
ccou
nt
(US
MC
A)
and
Sw
iss
Age
ncy
for
Dev
elop
men
t an
d C
oope
ratio
n (S
DC
) pro
ject
s To
ext
end
past
ure
and
dese
rtific
atio
n m
onito
ring
syst
em, t
o co
nduc
t sy
stem
atic
pas
ture
pes
ts a
nd in
sect
s ob
serv
atio
n an
d to
dev
elop
gui
delin
es
for p
astu
re h
ealth
ass
essm
ent.
The
first
ph
ase
of
NA
PC
C,
(201
1-20
16)
Nat
iona
l Age
ncy
for M
eteo
rolo
gy, H
ydro
logy
, E
nviro
nmen
t and
Mon
itorin
g ha
s im
plem
ente
d pr
ojec
ts fu
nded
by
dono
r age
ncie
s an
d te
chni
cal
guid
elin
e fo
r pas
ture
and
soi
l mon
itorin
g w
hich
is
done
at a
bout
150
0 po
ints
of t
he n
atio
nal m
onito
ring
netw
ork.
The
dat
abas
e ha
s be
en e
stab
lishe
d an
d N
atio
nal P
astu
re S
tatu
s ha
s be
en re
porte
d an
nual
ly. G
over
nmen
t40
0 th
ousa
nd
US
D fr
om
inte
rnat
iona
l pr
ojec
ts
To p
lan
popu
latio
n se
ttlem
ents
in
acco
rdan
ce w
ith c
limat
e ch
ange
, re
gion
al n
atur
al re
sour
ces
and
thei
r ca
paci
ties
to re
cove
r
“Gre
en
Dev
elop
men
t P
olic
y”,
(201
4-20
30)
“New
sou
m” p
roje
ct h
as s
tarte
d to
be
impl
emen
ted
in s
oum
cen
tres
to c
onst
ruct
inte
grat
ed g
over
nmen
t bu
ildin
gs w
ith c
entra
l hea
ting
and
wat
er s
yste
ms,
to
pro
vide
opp
ortu
nitie
s to
hav
e an
acc
ess
to w
ater
an
d sa
nita
tion
faci
litie
s fo
r hou
seho
lds
and
to
esta
blis
h gr
een
gard
ens
and
area
s.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
Sec
tor
Cur
rent
and
pla
nned
un
derta
king
s S
trate
gy o
r P
rogr
amm
e na
me
Cur
rent
sta
tus
of im
plem
enta
tion
Res
ourc
e an
d fu
ndin
g
Nat
iona
lIn
tern
atio
nal
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e
To c
oord
inat
e a
num
ber
of a
nim
als
and
herd
s co
mpo
sitio
n al
igne
d w
ith
past
ure
carr
ying
cap
aciti
es a
t re
gion
al le
vels
.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
Gov
ernm
ent h
as p
ropo
sed
amen
dmen
ts in
Law
of
Mon
golia
on
Land
and
dev
elop
ed g
uide
lines
for p
astu
re
land
usa
ge ta
xatio
n ba
sed
on th
e nu
mbe
r of a
nim
als,
ty
pes
and
regi
onal
con
text
s.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To e
nsur
e an
effe
ctiv
e co
ordi
natio
n of
pas
ture
us
age
and
rese
rve
at
leas
t 10%
pas
ture
for o
tor
mov
emen
t at p
rovi
ncia
l and
lo
cal l
evel
s w
hich
can
be
used
dur
ing
disa
ster
s.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
Ther
e ar
e 7
site
s of
rese
rve
otor
pas
ture
for a
spe
cial
pu
rpos
e at
pro
vinc
ial l
evel
s w
hich
occ
upy
679
thou
sand
ha
or 0
.6%
of t
he to
tal p
astu
rela
nd. A
t sou
m (c
ount
ry
subd
ivis
ion)
leve
ls, t
here
is 1
.8 m
illio
n ha
pas
ture
whi
ch
can
be u
sed
as re
serv
e pa
stur
e du
ring
disa
ster
s.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To u
se e
nviro
nmen
t, hu
man
an
d an
imal
-frie
ndly
and
ad
vanc
ed te
chno
logi
es
agai
nst p
astu
re in
sect
s an
d ro
dent
s.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
Eve
ry y
ear,
the
Gov
ernm
ent b
udge
ts 1
mill
ion
US
D
and
faci
litat
e en
viro
nmen
t frie
ndly
mea
sure
s ba
sed
on
mon
itorin
g an
d su
rvey
s.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To c
ondu
ct w
ater
sur
vey
and
expl
orat
ion
base
d on
lo
cal h
erde
rs in
itiat
ives
and
es
tabl
ish
wat
er w
ells
with
w
ater
rese
rvoi
rs.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
In th
e re
cent
yea
rs, a
lmos
t 100
0 w
ater
wel
ls w
ere
esta
blis
hed
by th
e G
over
nmen
t bud
get a
nd in
tern
atio
nal
proj
ects
fund
ing
and
hand
ed o
ver t
o he
rder
s gr
oups
. In
the
step
pe re
gion
, ren
ewab
le e
nerg
y, li
ke s
olar
and
w
ind,
are
bei
ng u
sed
for g
roun
d w
ells
ope
ratio
ns w
hich
ar
e fin
anci
ally
effi
cien
t to
save
fuel
s an
d en
viro
nmen
t-fri
endl
y.
Gov
ernm
ent
Inte
rnat
iona
l pr
ojec
ts
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e
To b
reed
hig
h pr
oduc
tion
cattl
e to
incr
ease
mea
t pr
oduc
tion
and
ultim
atel
y to
redu
ce th
e nu
mbe
r of
past
oral
ani
mal
in w
inte
r.
“Mon
golia
n Li
vest
ock”
Nat
iona
l P
rogr
amm
e,
(201
0-20
21)
In 2
012,
mea
t pro
duct
ion
cattl
e an
d sh
eep
have
sta
rted
to b
reed
in 1
0 so
ums
and
abou
t 120
0 ca
ttle
of h
igh
prod
uctio
n w
ere
impo
rted
from
Fra
nce
and
Ger
man
y.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
Climate Change Adaptation
30
Chapter 4
Ara
ble
farm
ing
To in
trodu
ce a
dvan
ced
agric
ultu
ral a
nd w
ater
sa
ving
tech
nolo
gies
and
to
esta
blis
h fo
rest
pro
tect
ion
strip
s in
ord
er to
impr
ove
soil
ferti
lity
and
re-s
tore
soi
ls, t
o pr
oduc
e an
d m
eet n
atio
nal
cons
umpt
ion
of c
erea
ls a
nd
vege
tabl
es, a
nd to
re-u
se
at le
ast 7
0% o
f aba
ndon
ed
crop
land
.
“Gre
en
Dev
elop
men
t P
olic
y”, (
2014
-203
0)
As
of 2
015,
the
tota
l cro
plan
d ha
s be
en a
ccou
nted
750
th
ousa
nd h
a in
clud
ing
450
thou
sand
re-u
sed
aban
done
d cr
opla
nd. T
here
is s
till a
qui
te b
ig a
mou
nt o
f aba
ndon
ed
crop
land
. Th
e G
over
nmen
t tho
ugh
Agr
icul
ture
Sup
port
Fund
ha
s gi
ven
soft
loan
s to
farm
ers
for w
heat
see
ds, f
uels
, so
il an
d cr
op p
rote
ctio
n pr
oduc
ts w
ith re
paym
ent a
fter
harv
estin
g an
d ag
ricul
tura
l mac
hine
ry w
ith a
repa
ymen
t te
rm o
f 3-5
yea
rs.
6.5
mln
U
SD
spe
nt
for s
oft
loan
s by
the
Gov
ernm
ent
1.5
mln
U
SD
from
G
over
nmen
t of
Chi
na
To re
-use
the
aban
done
d cr
opla
nd (a
bout
940
th
ousa
nd h
a) in
ord
er to
in
crea
se p
rodu
ctio
n of
whe
at
flour
, pot
ato
and
vege
tabl
es
to fu
lly m
eet n
atio
nal
cons
umpt
ion
dem
and.
“3rd c
ampa
ign
of
crop
pro
duct
ion”
, (2
008-
2010
)
As
a re
sult
of th
e ca
mpa
ign,
farm
ers
and
farm
ing
com
pani
es g
ot s
oft l
oan
for f
uels
, cer
eal s
eeds
an
d im
porte
d an
d eq
uipm
ents
and
pai
d ba
ck a
fter
harv
ests
. Con
sequ
ently
, cro
p pr
oduc
tion
has
incr
ease
d si
gnifi
cant
ly a
nd 1
00%
of w
heat
and
pot
ato
have
bee
n pr
oduc
ed lo
cally
and
57%
of v
eget
able
s ar
e pr
oduc
ed.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To in
crea
se ir
rigat
ed
crop
land
in o
rder
to re
duce
ha
rves
t var
iatio
n by
20%
for
cere
als,
40%
for v
eget
able
s by
201
5 an
d to
redu
ce
irrig
atio
n w
ater
con
sum
ptio
n by
50%
in 2
021
thro
ugh
intro
duci
ng w
ater
effi
cien
t te
chno
logi
es.
NA
PC
C,
(201
1-20
21)
Drip
irrig
atio
n sy
stem
s ha
ve b
een
star
ted
to b
e us
ed
sinc
e 19
97 a
nd a
s of
201
5, th
ese
syst
ems
have
bee
n ap
plie
d to
280
ha o
f veg
etab
le fa
rms.
Mul
ches
wer
e st
arte
d to
be
in p
ract
ice
in 2
007
and
have
bee
n ap
plie
d to
50
ha o
f veg
etab
le fa
rms
as o
f 201
5.
The
Gov
ernm
ent p
rovi
des
hous
ehol
d sc
ale
irrig
atio
n eq
uipm
ent w
ith a
cap
acity
of 0
.5-1
.0ha
to fa
rmer
s fre
e of
ch
arge
. P
roje
cts
such
as”
Mon
golia
n po
tato
” and
des
ertifi
catio
n pr
ojec
ts s
uppl
ied
grai
n pr
oduc
ers
and
hous
ehol
d ga
rden
ers
with
drip
irrig
atio
n sy
stem
s an
d pl
astic
m
ulch
es.
Gov
ernm
ent
Gov
ernm
ent
of S
witz
erla
nd
31
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 4
Ara
ble
farm
ing
-To
deve
lop
irrig
ated
cr
op p
rodu
ctio
n th
roug
h in
crea
sing
irrig
atio
n sy
stem
s,
and
intro
duci
ng a
dvan
ced
tech
nolo
gies
suc
h as
drip
irr
igat
ion,
wat
er re
serv
oirs
an
d pr
ecip
itatio
n ha
rves
ting.
-To
cond
uct w
ater
reso
urce
su
rvey
, exp
lora
tion
for
crop
land
and
pas
ture
, des
ign
and
esta
blis
h w
ater
sys
tem
s th
roug
h pu
blic
-priv
ate
and
indi
vidu
al fu
ndin
g.
“Sta
te p
olic
y on
Foo
d an
d A
gric
ultu
re”,
2003
Gov
ernm
ent f
unds
abo
ut 3
0% o
f fina
nces
to re
nova
te
and
cons
truct
pub
lic a
nd p
rivat
e irr
igat
ion
and
wat
er
syst
ems
for c
ropl
and.
Irrig
ated
cro
plan
d in
crea
sed
by 7
.2
thou
sand
ha
than
in 2
005.
8.75
mln
U
SD
in
the
last
10
year
s by
the
Gov
ernm
ent
4.9
mln
US
D
Wat
er
reso
urce
To fo
rbid
min
eral
exp
lora
tion
and
expl
oita
tion
in 3
0%
area
s of
ups
tream
of r
iver
s w
here
at l
east
70%
of w
ater
an
d ru
n-of
f are
acc
umul
ated
.
“Law
to p
rohi
bit
min
ing
expl
orat
ion
and
expl
oita
tion
in a
reas
of u
pper
st
ream
s of
rive
rs
and
wat
er s
ourc
es
and
fore
stry
”, 20
09
As
of 2
014,
sta
te p
rote
cted
are
as re
ache
d up
to 1
7.4%
of
the
tota
l lan
d in
clud
ing
the
uppe
r stre
am o
f riv
ers
and
wat
er s
ourc
es in
ord
er to
mai
ntai
n w
ildliv
es a
nd
ecos
yste
ms
bala
nce.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
To im
prov
e w
ater
reso
urce
an
d us
age
man
agem
ent.
“Wat
er” N
atio
nal
Pro
gram
me,
(2
010-
2020
)
Inte
grat
ed w
ater
bas
in m
anag
emen
t pla
n ha
ve b
een
impl
emen
ted
for 7
rive
r bas
ins.
G
over
nmen
tIn
tern
atio
nal
proj
ects
To ta
ke e
cosy
stem
bas
ed
adap
tatio
n m
easu
res.
P
roje
ct o
f “E
cosy
stem
-bas
ed
Ada
ptat
ions
in
high
ly v
ulne
rabl
e riv
ers
basi
ns”,
(2
012-
2017
)
The
proj
ect i
s be
ing
impl
emen
ted
in K
harh
iraa-
Turg
en
river
s ba
sin
in th
e w
este
rn re
gion
and
Ulz
rive
r bas
in in
th
e ea
ster
n re
gion
and
aim
s to
stre
ngth
en n
atio
nal a
nd
loca
l ada
ptat
ion
capa
city
thro
ugh
cons
erva
tion
of ri
paria
n an
d ba
sin
ecos
yste
ms
in th
e ar
eas.
-
Ada
ptat
ion
Fund
for
Kyo
to
Pro
toco
l
Fore
stry
To im
prov
e fo
rest
sec
tor
man
agem
ent,
stru
ctur
e an
d co
ordi
natio
n sy
stem
s.
“Nat
iona
l For
estry
P
rogr
amm
e”,
(200
5-20
15)
Com
mun
ity-b
ased
fore
stry
reso
urce
man
agem
ent w
as
intro
duce
d an
d as
of t
oday
, abo
ut 2
0% o
f the
fore
sts
is
unde
r the
pro
tect
ion
of c
omm
unity
fore
stry
gro
ups.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
Climate Change Adaptation
32
Chapter 4
Dis
aste
r m
anag
emen
tTo
inte
grat
e di
sast
er ri
sk re
duct
ion
into
clim
ate
chan
ge a
dapt
atio
n an
d su
stai
nabl
e de
velo
pmen
t.
Pla
n fo
r “S
tate
Pol
icy
on D
isas
ter
Pro
tect
ion”
an
d N
atio
nal
Pro
gram
me
for
Stre
ngth
enin
g D
isas
ter
Res
ilien
ce”,
(201
2-20
21)
Cer
tain
am
ount
of m
oney
is a
lloca
ted
to th
e G
over
nmen
t Res
erve
Fun
d fro
m th
e N
atio
nal
budg
et in
eve
ry y
ear.
For e
xam
ple,
25.
7 m
illio
n U
SD
w
as s
pent
from
this
Fun
d fo
r dis
aste
r rel
ief a
nd
reco
very
exp
endi
ture
in 2
013
and
2014
.
Gov
ernm
ent
-
33
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 4
4.2.
Cap
acit
y
Tab
le 4
.2. C
apac
ity o
f cur
rent
and
pla
nned
und
erta
king
s
Sec
tor
Indi
vidu
al le
vel
Inst
itutio
nal l
evel
Sys
tem
leve
l
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e-L
ocal
lead
ers,
her
ders
and
ot
her c
itize
ns h
ave
star
ted
to
real
ize
bene
fits
of a
dapt
atio
n un
derta
king
s.
-Loc
al c
omm
unity
pa
rtici
patio
n is
key
in th
e pa
stur
e us
age,
pro
tect
ion
and
coor
dina
tion
as s
ugge
sted
by
rela
ted
proj
ects
.
-“P
astu
re u
sage
con
tract
” was
in
itiat
ed b
y pa
stur
e m
anag
emen
t an
d he
rder
s liv
elih
ood
proj
ects
and
is
bei
ng d
evel
oped
by
past
ure
and
lives
tock
spe
cial
ists
.
-”P
astu
re L
aw” h
as b
een
draf
ted
and
disc
usse
d by
rela
ted
expe
rts a
nd m
embe
rs o
f the
Par
liam
ent,
but y
et h
as n
ot b
een
pass
ed. T
he b
ill w
as s
ubm
itted
in 2
011
to th
e P
arlia
men
t an
d su
rvey
pol
l fro
m 1
5,06
0 he
rder
s in
118
sou
ms
was
don
e ac
cord
ing
to th
e su
gges
tion
by th
e P
arlia
men
t. 68
% o
f the
tota
l pa
rtici
pant
s in
the
surv
ey a
gree
d se
para
te “P
astu
re L
aw” i
s re
quire
d (1
8% re
spon
ded
that
ther
e is
no
need
and
14%
they
do
n’t k
now
). B
ut th
e bi
ll w
as n
ot d
iscu
ssed
at t
he P
arlia
men
t. P
astu
re re
late
d ar
ticle
s w
ere
incl
uded
in th
e La
nd L
aw a
nd
subm
itted
to th
e P
arlia
men
t in
2013
. Yet
, am
endm
ents
in th
e La
nd L
aw a
gain
hav
e no
t bee
n di
scus
sed.
-P
astu
re la
w h
as b
een
unde
r an
unce
rtain
con
ditio
n, p
astu
re
rela
ted
artic
les
such
as
past
ure
usag
e ta
xatio
n, a
nd u
sing
fund
s fo
r pas
ture
con
serv
atio
n w
ere
incl
uded
in a
dra
ft of
the
“Ass
et
Law
” by
expe
rts a
nd g
over
nmen
t offi
cers
of r
elat
ed m
inis
tries
and
ag
enci
es fo
r the
Par
liam
ent d
iscu
ssio
ns.
Ara
ble
farm
ing
-Due
to re
mot
enes
s fro
m
mar
kets
and
lack
of h
uman
re
sour
ce a
nd te
chni
cal
capa
citie
s th
ere
is s
till s
ome
aban
done
d cr
opla
nd (a
bout
42
0 th
ousa
nd h
a) in
the
east
ern
and
the
wes
tern
re
gion
s.
-Gov
ernm
ent p
rovi
des
supp
ort t
o fa
rmer
s th
roug
h A
gric
ultu
re S
uppo
rt Fu
nd o
f the
Min
istry
of F
ood
and
Agr
icul
ture
, how
ever
in re
mot
e re
gion
s; a
cces
s to
the
fund
sup
port
is li
mite
d du
e to
lack
of s
truct
ure
and
capa
citie
s.
-In re
mot
e re
gion
s, la
ck o
f inf
rast
ruct
ure,
dis
tanc
e fro
m m
arke
ts,
scie
nce
and
rese
arch
cen
tres
and
low
fact
ory
capa
citie
s fo
r ce
real
s an
d ve
geta
ble
prod
uctio
n hi
nder
s ar
able
farm
ing
deve
lopm
ent a
nd e
xten
sion
s.
Wat
er
reso
urce
-The
re is
a la
ck o
f kno
wle
dge
and
skill
s re
late
d to
clim
ate
chan
ge in
the
curr
icul
um
of c
olle
ges,
inst
itute
s an
d un
iver
sitie
s. T
rain
ing
and
re-
train
ings
are
not
suf
ficie
nt.
-Dis
sem
inat
ion
of c
limat
e ch
ange
st
udy
is li
mite
d, th
eref
ore,
in
form
atio
n an
d re
sear
ch o
n ec
onom
ic b
enefi
ts o
f ada
ptat
ion
optio
ns a
re in
suffi
cien
t. Th
ese
hind
er e
ffici
ent i
mpl
emen
tatio
ns a
nd
mon
itorin
g of
ada
ptat
ion
optio
ns.
-
Climate Change Adaptation
34
Chapter 4
Fore
st-T
rain
ing
priv
ate
inve
ntor
y co
mpa
nies
to p
ursu
e be
tter
fore
st m
anag
emen
t pra
ctic
es,
and
fore
stry
uni
ts a
nd
envi
ronm
enta
l age
ncie
s to
co
nduc
t effi
cien
t mon
itorin
g of
fo
rest
ry m
easu
res.
-Pilo
ting
a co
mpr
ehen
sive
trai
ning
sy
stem
for s
usta
inab
le fo
rest
m
anag
emen
t, an
d ad
visi
ng th
e M
inis
try o
f Lab
our o
n w
ays
to
impr
ove
the
voca
tiona
l tra
inin
g sy
stem
for f
ores
ters
.
-
Nat
ural
di
sast
er
man
agem
ent
-
-In M
ongo
lia, t
here
is 1
m
eteo
rolo
gica
l sta
tion
per 1
1.8
thou
sand
squ
are
km a
nd th
e di
stan
ce b
etw
een
obse
rvat
ion
stat
ions
is 2
00-3
00km
from
eac
h ot
her.
Ther
e is
onl
y on
e ra
dar s
tatio
n in
Ula
anba
atar
city
whi
ch w
as
set u
p by
Jap
anes
e G
over
nmen
t fu
ndin
g in
199
8. T
hese
geo
grap
hica
l ga
ps in
obs
erva
tion
netw
ork
mak
e a
pred
ictio
n an
d ea
rly w
arni
ng o
f at
mos
pher
ic d
isas
trous
phe
nom
ena
diffi
cult.
-Dis
aste
r man
agem
ent i
s ca
rrie
d ou
t by
the
Nat
iona
l Em
erge
ncy
Man
agem
ent A
genc
y (N
EM
A) o
f the
Gov
ernm
ent a
ccor
ding
to
Dis
aste
r Man
agem
ent L
aw. H
owev
er im
plem
enta
tion
is
inad
equa
te a
t pro
vinc
ial a
nd lo
cal l
evel
s du
e to
lack
of k
now
ledg
e an
d sk
ills
and
depe
nden
cy m
inds
et o
f peo
ple.
-E
arly
war
ning
of r
apid
ons
et h
azar
dous
and
dis
astro
us
phen
omen
a is
del
iver
ed to
peo
ple
thro
ugh
publ
ic m
edia
in
gene
ral w
ays.
Nat
ural
di
sast
er
man
agem
ent
-
Eve
n th
ough
irrig
ated
cro
plan
d is
incr
easi
ng, i
rrig
atio
n an
d w
ater
ap
plic
atio
n is
not
bei
ng d
one
base
d on
rese
arch
and
sci
entifi
c ba
ses
whi
ch re
duce
the
bene
fit
of ir
rigat
ion.
Num
eric
al w
eath
er
pred
ictio
n es
peci
ally
for p
reci
pita
tion
is n
ot s
uffic
ient
ly a
ccur
ate;
rive
r run
-of
f for
ecas
t is
base
d on
floo
d w
ave
trans
fer m
etho
ds. W
eath
er s
tatio
ns
are
loca
ted
in s
ettle
men
ts, s
o th
ere
are
chal
leng
es to
pre
dict
fore
st a
nd
step
pe fi
res
and
river
floo
ds.
-
35
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 4
Nat
ural
di
sast
er
man
agem
ent
-
-Mes
o-sc
ale
mod
el o
f num
eric
al
wea
ther
pre
dict
ion
has
been
in
trodu
ced
in th
e M
eteo
rolo
gy
Age
ncy
sinc
e 20
06 a
nd p
redi
ctio
n ac
cura
cy h
as im
prov
ed s
igni
fican
tly.
But
the
fore
cast
of e
xtre
me
even
ts
(atm
osph
eric
haz
ardo
us a
nd
disa
stro
us p
heno
men
a) is
not
su
ffici
ent.
Esp
ecia
lly s
low
ons
et
phen
omen
a su
ch a
s dr
ough
t and
dz
ud a
re c
halle
ngin
g to
pre
dict
eve
n in
obj
ectiv
e w
ays.
-
-
-Cur
rent
ly, ri
sks
of n
atur
al
disa
ster
s ar
e no
t bei
ng d
one
due
to la
ck o
f mon
itorin
g in
form
atio
n of
atm
osph
eric
haz
ardo
us a
nd
disa
stro
us p
heno
men
a as
wel
l as
una
ccou
nted
eco
nom
ic a
nd
natu
ral l
osse
s. T
here
is n
o in
tegr
ated
dat
abas
e, w
hich
incl
udes
in
form
atio
n ab
out h
uman
ani
mal
ep
idem
ic s
ourc
es. E
ach
inst
itutio
n ha
s se
para
te d
atab
ases
, whi
ch
mak
es m
anag
emen
t and
dec
isio
n m
akin
g ch
alle
ngin
g.
-
Climate Change Adaptation
36
Chapter 4
4.3.
Tec
hn
ical
Tab
le 4
.3. C
urre
nt a
nd p
lann
ed a
dapt
atio
n un
derta
king
s
Sec
tor
Ada
ptat
ion
tech
nolo
gy n
eeds
C
urre
nt s
tatu
s
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e
Sea
sona
l to
inte
r-an
nual
pre
dict
ion
and
lives
tock
ear
ly
war
ning
sys
tem
-The
re is
a la
ck o
f coo
rdin
atio
n an
d in
tegr
atio
n be
twee
n m
onito
ring,
ass
essm
ent,
usag
e an
d m
anag
emen
t of p
astu
re
and
soil.
Info
rmat
ion
and
conc
lusi
ons
are
diffe
rent
, inf
orm
atio
n is
not
exc
hang
ed a
nd p
astu
re is
sues
are
not
suf
ficie
ntly
re
solv
ed a
t the
pol
icy
leve
l. -E
arly
war
ning
act
ions
nee
d to
be
impr
oved
thro
ugh
clar
ifyin
g fu
nctio
ns ro
les
of re
late
d in
stitu
tions
. Inf
orm
atio
n an
d di
ssem
inat
ion
stru
ctur
e sh
ould
be
clea
r and
regu
lar b
ased
on
past
ure
cond
ition
and
wea
ther
long
term
fore
cast
s.
(Impl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
Sel
ectiv
e br
eedi
ng
of li
vest
ock
-Cur
rent
ly, b
uild
ing
of N
atio
nal c
ompr
ehen
sive
cen
tre fo
r ani
mal
gen
etic
s fu
nd is
bei
ng c
onst
ruct
ed in
Kho
ngor
sou
m
and
Dar
khan
-Uul
aim
ag. A
s a
resu
lt, la
bora
torie
s fo
r liv
esto
ck p
rodu
ctio
n, g
enet
ics,
bio
tech
nolo
gy a
nd a
nim
als
bree
ds
will
be
esta
blis
hed
acco
rdin
g to
inte
rnat
iona
l sta
ndar
ds.
-In th
e fra
mew
ork
of m
aint
aini
ng g
enet
ics
pool
of b
reed
s of
live
stoc
k, N
atio
nal l
ives
tock
gen
etic
s ce
ntre
has
re
plen
ishe
d th
e fu
nd w
ith 7
,429
por
tion
of g
enes
in 2
012,
9,5
49 g
enes
in 2
013,
6,1
28 g
enes
in 2
014
and
the
tota
l 20
,402
gen
es a
ccor
ding
to te
chni
cal s
tand
ards
. (Im
plem
enta
tion
stat
us is
med
ium
)Li
vest
ock
Dis
ease
M
anag
emen
t-C
urre
nt p
ract
ice
is to
dev
elop
a p
lan
and
budg
et fo
r liv
esto
ck h
ealth
and
pre
vent
ion
mea
sure
s fo
r eve
ry y
ear.
With
in
such
pra
ctic
e, p
rovi
ncia
l gov
erno
rs a
nd U
laan
baat
ar c
ity m
ayor
app
rove
d pl
ans
and
budg
ets
for a
num
ber o
f ani
mal
s,
requ
ired
vete
rinar
y m
edic
ines
pro
duct
s to
pre
vent
epi
dem
ics
and
para
site
s.
-In o
rder
to e
ffect
ivel
y di
agno
se e
pide
mic
s an
d in
fect
ions
, fou
r ful
ly e
quip
ped
labo
rato
ries
cost
ing
295
thou
sand
US
D
have
bee
n ha
nded
ove
r to
vete
rinar
y de
partm
ents
of A
rkha
ngai
, Kho
vd, D
undg
obi a
nd K
hent
ii pr
ovin
ces.
(Im
plem
enta
tion
stat
us is
med
ium
)S
usta
inab
le
Pas
ture
M
anag
emen
t
-In o
rder
to a
ppro
pria
tely
man
age
past
ure
for w
inte
r and
spr
ing,
info
rmat
ion
abou
t dro
ught
, sum
mer
pas
ture
pr
oduc
tion,
pas
ture
cap
acity
, loc
al c
onte
xt n
umbe
r of a
nim
als
and
pred
icte
d w
inte
r wea
ther
nee
ds a
re a
naly
sed.
A
ssoc
iate
d ris
ks s
houl
d be
ass
esse
d an
d ba
sed
on th
at p
ublic
info
rmat
ion,
reco
mm
enda
tions
sho
uld
be d
isse
min
ated
. Th
ese
role
s ar
e re
quire
d to
be
syst
emiz
ed, c
larif
ying
func
tions
and
resp
onsi
bilit
ies.
Her
ders
and
loca
l com
mun
ity
parti
cipa
tion
shou
ld b
e en
sure
d in
pas
ture
man
agem
ent a
t all
leve
ls.
(Impl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
37
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 4
Live
stoc
k an
d pa
stur
e
Pro
duci
ng s
uppl
emen
t fe
ed fo
r win
ter a
nd s
prin
g-F
odde
r sto
rage
s w
ith a
cap
acity
of 1
00 to
nnes
wer
e bu
ilt in
the
wes
tern
regi
on Z
avkh
an a
nd G
obis
umbe
r ai
mag
s. (I
mpl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is g
ood)
Pla
ntin
g of
fora
ge
pere
nnia
ls re
sist
ant t
o dr
ough
t and
col
d w
inte
r fo
r fod
der p
rodu
ctio
n
(not
impl
emen
ted)
Rai
n an
d sn
ow w
ater
ha
rves
ting
for h
erde
r gr
oups
(not
impl
emen
ted)
Pro
duci
ng s
uppl
emen
t fo
rage
with
bac
teria
l en
zym
e fo
r liv
esto
ck
(not
impl
emen
ted)
Ara
ble
farm
ing
Sys
tem
of w
heat
in
tens
ifica
tion
thro
ugh
cons
erva
tion
tilla
ge
Min
imiz
ing
or z
ero
soil
tilla
ge w
as p
ilote
d in
the
1980
s fo
r cer
eals
and
fora
ge p
lant
atio
ns. S
ince
200
8 th
is
tech
nolo
gy h
as b
een
appl
ied
inte
nsiv
ely
and
abou
t 140
thou
sand
ha
of th
e fa
llow
fiel
d ha
s ha
d ze
ro-ti
llage
and
ro
und-
up h
erbi
cide
aga
inst
wee
ds a
s of
201
4. T
his
tech
nolo
gy h
elps
to m
inim
ize
expe
nses
, red
uce
soil
moi
stur
e lo
sses
and
win
d er
osio
n be
caus
e th
e so
il is
stil
l cov
ered
by
stra
ws.
Far
mer
s ar
e la
ckin
g th
e fin
anci
al c
apac
ity to
bu
y im
porte
d m
achi
nery
and
her
bici
de. (
Impl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
Vege
tabl
e pr
oduc
tion
syst
em w
ith d
rip ir
rigat
ion
Sin
ce 1
997,
drip
irrig
atio
n sy
stem
has
bee
n ap
plie
d an
d as
of t
oday
abo
ut 2
80 h
a of
veg
etab
le fi
eld
is u
sing
the
tech
nolo
gy. F
arm
ers
have
lim
ited
finan
cial
cap
acity
to b
uy d
rip ir
rigat
ion
and
know
ledg
e to
app
ly th
e te
chno
logy
. (Im
plem
enta
tion
stat
us is
med
ium
)P
otat
o se
ed p
rodu
ctio
n sy
stem
usi
ng a
erop
onic
s(n
ot im
plem
ente
d)
Pro
per r
otat
ion
syst
em o
f ce
real
s pl
antin
gB
efor
e th
e 19
90s,
live
stoc
k fo
dder
was
cen
trally
pla
nned
and
man
aged
by
the
Gov
ernm
ent,
so p
lant
ing
of fo
rage
pl
ants
suc
h as
bar
ley,
bea
ns a
nd o
ther
pla
nts
wer
e hi
gher
than
whe
at a
nd a
rota
tion
of “w
heat
– fo
dder
pla
nts”
w
ere
used
at l
east
33%
of f
allo
w fi
elds
. D
urin
g th
e tra
nsiti
on p
erio
d af
ter 1
990,
live
stoc
k w
ere
priv
atiz
ed a
nd h
erde
rs c
ould
not
buy
fodd
er fo
r the
ir an
imal
s. T
here
fore
, rot
atio
n sh
ifted
to “w
heat
– fa
llow
” tur
n w
hich
mea
ns 5
0% o
f cro
p la
nd w
as u
nder
fallo
w
proc
essi
ng. I
n th
e re
cent
yea
rs, r
ye a
nd o
il pl
ants
hav
e be
en p
lant
ed a
nd e
xpor
ted
due
to in
capa
bilit
y to
pro
cess
in
fact
orie
s. (I
mpl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
Cro
p pl
antin
g un
der
plas
tic m
ulch
esIn
the
fram
ewor
k of
inte
rnat
iona
l pro
ject
s st
arte
d in
200
7, u
sage
of p
last
ic m
ulch
es w
as p
ilote
d fo
r veg
etab
les
and
pota
to fi
elds
. As
of 2
015,
abo
ut 5
0 ha
of a
veg
etab
le fi
eld
has
been
app
lied
with
pla
stic
mul
ches
whi
ch h
elp
to s
ave
labo
r and
wat
er c
ost f
or ir
rigat
ion.
Far
mer
s ca
nnot
affo
rd im
porte
d pr
oduc
ts d
ue to
lack
of u
nder
stan
ding
th
e be
nefit
s an
d fin
anci
al c
apac
ity. (
Impl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
Climate Change Adaptation
38
Chapter 4
Ara
ble
farm
ing
Inte
grat
ed N
utrie
nt
Man
agem
ent
(not
impl
emen
ted)
Fore
st s
trip
prot
ectio
n of
ag
ricul
ture
land
(not
impl
emen
ted)
Pla
ntin
g w
inte
r cr
ops
Dur
ing
1970
, res
earc
h an
d ex
perim
ent o
n w
inte
r cro
ps s
uch
as w
heat
and
rye
wer
e do
ne in
agr
icul
tura
l reg
ions
, but
w
inte
r cro
ppin
g is
ver
y lim
ited
in th
e co
untry
due
to it
s lo
w p
reci
pita
tion
and
very
col
d w
eath
er.
War
min
g an
d ex
pect
ed w
inte
r pre
cipi
tatio
n in
crea
se a
fter 2
030
can
give
mor
e op
portu
nitie
s to
pilo
t som
e va
rietie
s of
w
inte
r whe
at a
nd ry
e.
Har
vest
ing
win
ter
snow
wat
er to
in
crea
se s
oil
moi
stur
e
Cur
rent
ly, w
inte
r sno
w is
ver
y lo
w w
hich
is li
miti
ng fa
ctor
to te
st a
nd a
pply
sno
w h
arve
stin
g. H
owev
er, t
echn
olog
ies
to in
crea
se s
now
den
sity
thro
ugh
mak
ing
dela
y in
sno
w m
eltin
g an
d re
serv
ing
mor
e sn
ow in
cum
ulat
ive
way
s ca
n be
pi
lote
d an
d ap
plie
d.
(Impl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
Bre
edin
g of
new
va
rietie
s of
cro
p us
ing
mar
ker
assi
sted
sel
ectio
n (M
AS
)
(not
impl
emen
ted)
Wat
er
reso
urce
Eco
syst
em b
ased
ad
apta
tion
Pro
ject
“Eco
syst
em-b
ased
ada
ptat
ion
appr
oach
to m
aint
aini
ng w
ater
sec
urity
in c
ritic
al w
ater
cat
chm
ents
in M
ongo
lia”
is im
plem
entin
g in
mou
ntai
n an
d st
eppe
eco
syst
ems
by in
tern
alis
ing
clim
ate
chan
ge ri
sks
with
in la
nd a
nd w
ater
re
sour
ce m
anag
emen
t reg
imes
, (20
12-2
017)
(Impl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
Fore
stB
iodi
vers
ity a
nd
adap
tatio
n of
key
fo
rest
eco
syst
ems
to c
limat
e ch
ange
Impr
ovem
ent o
f the
lega
l and
adm
inis
trativ
e fra
mew
ork’
is c
ontri
butin
g to
the
crea
tion
of s
uita
ble
cond
ition
s fo
r su
stai
nabl
e fo
rest
man
agem
ent,
(201
2-20
18)
(Impl
emen
tatio
n st
atus
is m
ediu
m)
39
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 5
CHAPTER 5. GAPS AND BARRIERS
Identified barriers per sectors were prioritized based on gaps between adaptation goals and targets, current status and required financial, capacity and technical supports. Two types of barriers which are very important and less important have been identified. Importance and easiness of removal of barriers were considered in the following four categories:
• High priority that require internal and external support • High priority that require internal support• Low priority that require internal and external support• Low priority that require internal support
Sector barriers according to the above mentioned categories are listed in Table 5.1. Barriers such as financial capacity and resources, technology, research, development and human capacity are belong to high priorities external barriers for all sectors. At the same time, insufficient legal environment, lack of coordination and integration, poor law enforcement and weak detailed research are in the category of high priority and internal barriers.
Climate Change Adaptation
40
Chapter 5
Table 5.1. Gaps and barriers
National priority: high Nature of support: external+internal
National priority: highNature of support: internal
1. Pastoral livestock-Inadequate investment and financial support;-Lack of facilities of veterinary centres and laboratories;-Not established an early warning system that prevent from drought and dzud.
2. Arable farming-Lack of financial resources for building of drip irrigation system;-Collaborative research work on new varieties of crops with drought and heat wave resistant;-All machinery, equipment and fuels are fully dependent on import;-Weak exchanging experiences and practices from other countries due to finance.3. Water resource management-Lack of financial support to implement water resource, usage and protection actions;-Products, equipment, materials and machinery are all imported;-Limited research and evidence of climate change studies and economic benefits.4. Natural disaster management-Low financial capacity to equip with advanced techniques and equipment; -Lack of research and development;-Poor infrastructure to disseminate disaster early warning to the public.
1. Pastoral livestock-Lack of laws, policies and coordination;-No existence of pasture usage coordination/otor movements in alignment with local contexts to overcome risks;-Poor enforcement of land use contracts and responsibilities at soum levels;-Pasture is more cross-sectoral issue and there is no integrated coordination;-The most importantly, pasture in Mongolia has no ownership and no value. 2. Arable farming-There are no legal requirements to use water efficiently by central and local government institutions and no water tariff which cause inefficient usage of water;-There is a low demand of other crops at national markets. Poor infrastructure to process, unavailability of appropriate varieties of alternative crops and related agricultural technologies are prevailing;-The current amount of winter precipitation is not enough for winter cropping. Winter rye is only a crop which can be planted in winter. Alternative crops do not exist, farmers have no knowledge and experience in winter cropping.
3. Water resource management-Lack of human capacity and being non producers;-Limited access to soft loans and bank loans have usually high interest rates;-Ineffective taxation policies, weak support to national productions and poor coordination on imports and exports;-Lack of monitoring of climate change adaptation implementations.
4.Natural disaster management-Lack of human resource capacity and trainings;-Non existence of integrated database of natural disasters, separate databases per agencies and institutions and no coordination between them;-Disaster management actions have poor implementation especially at provincial and local levels;-Rapid onset atmospheric disasters’ warnings are delivered in very general way without details to public through media.
National priority: lowNature of support: external+internal
National priority: lowNature of support: internal
1.Pastoral livestock-Cultural barriers of acceptance of pasture usage and protection issues.
1. Pastoral livestock-Low understanding about appropriate pasture usage and overgrazing.-Lack of knowledge and understanding of long term sustainability of pasture and prevention of soil degradation and social acceptance.
41
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 6
CHAPTER 6. SUMMARY OF NEEDS
Based on current adaptation undertakings and gaps, the needs to achieve adaptation goals and targets for 2021-2030 are given in (Table 6.1).
Rough estimations of adaptation measures, listed in Table 6.1, shows that in the future Mongolia will need around 3.4 billion USD for funding in technology and capacity building. Up to 80% of total need expected to be financed from international sources and donor institutions.
Table 6.1. Adaptation needs (2021-2030)
Sector Adaptation goals
Adaptation targets
Needs
Capacity Technology
Financial (international, investments), million USD
Animal husbandry and pasture
-To implement pasture sustainable management.
-Reduce rate of degraded pasture, -Regulate headcounts and types of animals including wild animals to match with pasture carrying capacities.
-To create legal regulation for pasture use, -To set up taxation system for pasture use,-To increase community participation in the proper use of pasture, its monitoring and conservation.
-To build up early warning system for drought and dzud to prevent animal loss,-To improve livestock quality and breeds,-To improve livestock health (epidemic and infectious diseases) management.
46
Arable farming
-To increase irrigated cropland, reduce soil water loss and decrease soil carbon emissions.
-To reduce bare fallow up to 30%, -Crop rotation system with 3-4 routes and 3-5 species crops will be introduced, -Irrigated cropland will be expanded by 2-2.5 times.
-To create legal regulation on soil protection (soil texture and moisture).
-To diffuse zero tillage technology,-To increase species of crops and rotation, -To transfer effective drip irrigation technology reducing water loss by 2.5-5.0 times.
150
Water resources
-To maintain the availability of water resources through protection of run-off formation zones and their native ecosystem in river basins.
-30 % of the territory will be state protected by 2030 and the sustainable financial mechanism will be introduced.
-To implement Integrated water resource management systems,-To coordinate multi-stakeholder relations through improved legal policies and efficient management,-Strengthen human resource capacity to deal with technical issues.
-To implement ecosystem- based technologies,-To support ecosystem services through hydrological monitoring, construction of water diversion canals to drying lakes located in flood plains and re-forestation actions.
5
Climate Change Adaptation
42
Chapter 6
Water resources
-To construct reservoirs for glacier melt water harvesting,-To regulate river streams and flow.
-To create water reservoirs at rivers and at outlets of lakes, and to construct multipurpose systems of water usage.
- To enhance hydrological monitoring and research for river flow regulation,-To construct water reservoirs and water diversion facilities to transfer water resource to dry regions.
- 1800
-To introduce water saving and water treatment technologies.
-To find solutions for sustainable water supply of Ulaanbaatar city and industries and mining in the Gobi region, and subsequently implement.
- To conduct a study and introduce sustainable water supply with closed systems preventing evaporation loss.
-To introduce new technologies for water saving, and treatment.
605
Forest resource
-To increase the efficiency of reforestation actions.
-Forest area will be increased to 9% by 2030 through reforestation activities.
-To build the capacity of community forestry groups to conduct modern technologies for forest seedlings and tree plantations.
-To introduce technology to plant seedlings.
11
-To reduce forest degradation rate.
-To reduce forest degradation rate caused by human activities, fires, insects and diseases.
-To set up fully equipped stations fighting forest fires and insects outburst and capacity building.
-To use airplanes to fight fires, -To introduce biological technologies against insects and pests.
13
-To improve the effectiveness of forest management.
-Resilient forests which are adapted to climate change, highly productive and have appropriate composition and structure will be created.
-To provide equipment and machinery to carry out forest cleaning activities,-To train human resources for forest management practices.
-To improve the efficiency of forest cleaning technologies.
7
Natural disaster manage-ment
-To enhance early warning and preven-tion systems for natural disasters.
-Strength-ening early warning system for natural disasters.
-To establish early de-tection and prediction system, -To conduct disaster risk assessment at the local area.
-To improve forecast-ing quality through increasing super computer capacity,-To establish Doppler radar network cover-ing the entire territory of the country.
65.4
43
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 7
CHAPTER 7. MONITORING AND REPORTING PROGRESS
Monitoring of climate change adaptations will be conducted in integrated ways of adaptation actions and measured included in “Long-term strategy of Mongolia development”, “Sustainable development programme”, “National action programme on climate change”, “Water” national programme, “Green development policy” and other sectoral strategies.
Required funding for adaptations implementation will consist of State budget, Government special funds (such as environment protection fund, special tax revenue, proposed funds for natural disaster risks, pasture fund and climate change adaptation etc), international funds and through other financial mechanism.
Monitoring will be based on achievements on adaptation goals and targets. Baselines and targets for indicators will be assessed quantitatively and qualitatively at every phase of implementation.
Climate Change Adaptation
44
Chapter 7
AN
NE
X I
An
nex
1. P
riorit
izat
ion
of a
dapt
atio
n go
als
and
targ
ets
(Sco
res:
Ver
y hi
gh-3
, Hig
h-2,
Med
ium
-1)
Cat
egor
yS
ecto
rS
ub s
ecto
rsP
redi
ctio
n of
im
pact
sS
igni
fican
ceU
rgen
cyC
onfid
ence
Ada
ptat
ion
goal
s an
d ta
rget
s
Agr
icul
ture
, w
ater
reso
urce
, fo
rest
ry a
nd
disa
ster
m
anag
emen
t
Ara
ble
farm
ing
Whe
atD
ecre
ase
of c
rop
prod
uctio
n an
d in
crea
se
of w
ater
co
nsum
ptio
n du
e to
dr
ough
ts
and
clim
ate
dryn
ess.
33
3-U
se w
ater
effi
cien
t and
wat
er s
avin
g te
chno
logi
es.
-Impr
ove
crop
rota
tion
and
incr
ease
cro
p ty
pes
in
the
syst
em.
-Pla
nt w
inte
r whe
at a
nd ry
e to
redu
ce re
lianc
e on
su
mm
er c
rops
.-In
trodu
ce s
now
wat
er h
arve
stin
g te
chno
logi
es
thou
gh k
eepi
ng s
now
cov
erag
e on
cro
plan
ds a
nd
abso
rbin
g sn
ow w
ater
into
soi
ls.
-Pro
tect
soi
l fer
tility
and
redu
ce p
erce
ntile
s of
bar
e fa
llow
are
as.
-Pla
nt d
roug
ht-r
esis
tant
var
iety
of c
rops
.-S
uppo
rt an
d st
reng
then
spe
cial
ized
ent
ities
who
m
anuf
actu
re a
nd im
port
agric
ultu
re e
quip
men
t and
m
achi
nerie
s, s
oil a
nd c
rop
prot
ectio
n pr
oduc
ts.
Pot
ato,
ve
geta
ble,
an
d be
rrie
s2
33
Oil
plan
ts a
nd
fora
ge
12
2
Ani
mal
hu
sban
dry
Pas
ture
Red
uctio
n of
pas
ture
bi
omas
s du
e to
dro
ught
an
d cl
imat
e dr
ynes
s.3
32
-Est
ablis
h a
lega
l env
ironm
ent f
or p
astu
re
rela
tions
.-C
ontro
l ani
mal
num
bers
in a
lignm
ent w
ith p
astu
re
carr
ying
cap
acity
.-D
evel
op c
o-ex
istin
g pa
stor
al li
vest
ock
and
inte
nsifi
ed fa
rmin
g.-Im
prov
e ba
lanc
e be
twee
n an
imal
type
s an
d he
rds
com
posi
tion.
-S
et u
p ta
xatio
n po
licie
s fo
r pas
ture
usa
ge a
nd
finan
cial
sup
port
for i
mpr
ovin
g de
grad
ed p
astu
res.
-Impr
ove
publ
ic a
nd h
erde
rs a
war
enes
s on
pro
per
usag
e of
pas
ture
thro
ugh
civi
c pa
rtici
patio
n an
d re
stor
ing
tradi
tiona
l bes
t pra
ctic
es.
Live
stoc
kIn
crea
se
of a
nim
al
loss
due
to
drou
ghts
and
dz
ud
32
3
-Stre
ngth
en e
arly
war
ning
sys
tem
for d
roug
hts
and
dzud
pre
vent
ion.
-Impr
ove
lives
tock
bre
eds.
Mor
e w
ater
de
ficit
due
to
river
wat
er
regi
me
chan
ges
23
2
-Reg
ulat
e riv
er fl
ow a
nd c
onst
ruct
sur
face
wat
er
rese
rvoi
rs a
nd c
lose
d w
ater
dis
tribu
tion
syst
ems.
45
Climate Change AdaptationChapter 7
Agr
icul
ture
, w
ater
reso
urce
, fo
rest
ry a
nd
disa
ster
m
anag
emen
t
Wat
er
reso
urce
Pop
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Climate Change Adaptation
46
Chapter 7
Climate Change MitigationIII
Climate Change Mitigation
48
Chapter 8
CHAPTER 8. GHG MITIGATION
8.1. Existing national GHG emissions and BAU projections of GHG emissions
8.1.1. National GHG inventory for the latest year available
8.1.1.1. Energy sector
The GHG inventory for the energy sector has been prepared for the period from 1990 to 2012 (MARCC, 2014). Three main gases were considered: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Indirect gases like carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and sulfur oxide (SO2) were also included. The GHG inventory considered the emissions resulting from fossil fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from the extraction of solid fossil fuels.
The activity data for the energy sector was taken from coal balances as well as data on imports of liquid fuels, which are issued annually by the National Statistical Office (NSO) of Mongolia. The energy balances and consumption data was taken from country statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other relevant ministries and organizations of Mongolia.
The energy sector is the most significant source of CO2 emissions in Mongolia. The contribution of different sectors to solid fuel combustion is illustrated in Table 8.1. In 1990, CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion were 8,135.04Gg; with energy industries the largest contributor at 63.2%. By 2012, CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion were slightly higher than 1990 levels at 8,771.49Gg, however with a larger share of 76.9% from the energy industry, due to declining emissions in manufacturing, transport, commercial, residential, and agricultural sectors.
Table 8.1. CO2 emissions from solid fuel combustion, Gg
Years
Sectoral Approach
Energy Industries
Manufacturing Industries
Trans port
Commer cial
Residen tial
Agricul ture Other TOTAL
1990 5,143.28 1,387.31 127.87 338.75 746.36 178.35 213.12 8,135.04
1995 4,599.77 850.56 108.80 265.79 176.50 31.41 257.99 6,290.82
2000 5,079.94 267.04 81.88 262.09 256.78 3.37 112.17 6,063.27
2005 5,254.11 132.56 112.50 216.74 443.15 20.53 132.12 6,311.71
2010 6,457.17 387.66 56.08 3.37 686.47 11.22 581.03 8,183.00
2011 6,302.89 423.01 59.45 2.24 717.88 10.10 538.41 8,053.97
2012 6,751.67 624.90 47.11 12.34 702.17 4.15 629.15 8,771.49
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
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Climate Change MitigationChapter 8
CO2 emissions from liquid fuel combustion result mainly from imported liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, jet kerosene and LPG. In 1990, CO2 emissions from liquid fuels were 2,518.17Gg, which accounted for 18.8% of total fuel combustion. While in 2012 CO2 emissions from liquid fuel combustion were 3,523.08Gg, which is 21.2% of the total (see Figure 8.1). CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are consequently rising.
Figure 8.1 shows the CO2 emissions by fuel type for the period of 1990-2012. The largest percentage of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion is from solid fuel, approximately 49-61%, liquid fuel, approximately 10-21%, and 20-32% from biomass. The CO2 emissions from biomass are relatively constant, but emissions from liquid fuel are tending to increase.
18.8%9.6% 12.5% 15.4% 16.3% 17.6% 18.6% 16.4% 16.6% 18.7% 21.2%
60.8%59.9% 57.8% 57.4% 57.4% 53.5% 52.1% 53.0% 54.7% 49.1% 52.9%
20.4%30.4% 29.7% 27.3% 26.3% 28.9% 29.3% 30.6% 28.6% 32.1% 25.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Years
Biomass
Solid Fossil
Liquid Fossil
Figure 8.1. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the energy sector, by fuel type Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
The sources of methane emissions in the energy sector arise from fuel combustion activities and fugitive emissions from coal mining. The main sources of N2O emissions are fuel combustion activities in the energy industry and the residential sector. In 1990, CH4 emissions from the energy sector were 494Gg CO2-eq. (23,520 tonnes) and decreased to 363Gg CO2-eq. (17,270 tonnes) in 2000. CH4 emissions have been increasing since 2001 and reached 997Gg CO2-eq. (47,460 tonnes) in 2012.
Table 8.2 shows total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in Gg CO2-eq. unit by using the Global Warming Potential (GWP) provided by IPCC. As a result, the total emissions of GHGs from the energy sector were estimated at 13,661Gg CO2-eq. in 2012, of which CO2, CH4 and N2O accounted for 91.7%, 7.3% and 0.01% respectively.
Climate Change Mitigation
50
Chapter 8
Table 8.2. Total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in Gg CO2-eq. in the energy sector
Gases 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012
CO2 10,653.21 7,301.87 7,371.49 7,999.67 10,671.26 11,124.59 12,530.81
CH4 493.87 373.08 362.63 414.04 906.78 1141.56 996.66
N2O 93.08 85.98 83.98 85.21 127.10 148.80 133.30
Total 11,240.17 7,760.93 7,818.11 8,499.93 11,705.14 12,414.95 13,660.77
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
Figure 8.2 shows the total GHG emissions from the energy sector by gases in Gg CO2-eq. units for the period 1990-2012.
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012
Gg
CO
2-eq
. CO2
CH4
N2O
TOTAL
Figure 8.2. Total GHG emissions from the energy sector by gases in Gg CO2-eq.Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
8.1.1.2. Transport sector
Due to a sparsely populated, geographically large national territory, the Mongolian transport sector is of strategic importance and consists of road, rail, air and water transport sub-sectors.
All types of cargo transport turnovers as well as passenger turnover, are shown in Table 8.3. According to the table, in 2014, the total cargo traffic rail freight turnover was 63%, transportation 37%, total passenger automobile circulation 55%, 22% for rail transport, and 23% for air transport.
Table 8.3. All types of cargo transport turnover and passenger turnover
No Specifications and types of transport 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 Cargo turnover, million t/km: 12,124.8 16,336.7 16,613.4 16,400.0 19,757.0
rail transport 10,286.7 11,418.7 12,142.7 12,076.5 12,473.7 automobiles 1,834.0 4,910.3 4,461.0 4,314.0 7,274.0 air transport 4.2 7.7 9.7 9.6 9.4
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Climate Change MitigationChapter 8
2 Passenger turnover, million passenger per km: 3,607.4 4,695.4 4,971.8 4,625.7 5,395.8
rail transport 1,220.0 1,399.7 1485.4 1,394.4 1,194.5 automobiles 1,480.2 2,321.6 2263.1 1,941.9 2,965.3 air transport 907.2 973.9 1,223.1 1,311.8 1,235.7 maritime transport 0.044 0.252 0.198 0.265 0.307
Source: Mongolian Statistical Yearbook, 2013.
Table 8.4 shows the total number of cars, their types, and classifications by used years. According to the table, in 2013 amongst the total vehicle fleet 10 and more years old cars accounted for 72.5%, while 4-9 years old cars accounted for 20.6%. In 2010 the number of cars less than 3 years old accounted for 3.4%, increasing to 6.9% by 2013.
Table 8.4. Number of cars, types and used period
No Specifications and types of transport 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 Type of car: 254,486 312,542 345,473 384,864 437,677
seat/sedan 172,583 208,514 228,650 259,309 303,724
truck 61,841 75,090 83,718 89,473 96,581
buses 16,366 22,547 21,642 20,400 20,650
special Purpose 3,696 6,391 11,463 15,682 16,722
2 Used period: 254,486 312,542 345,473 384,864 437,677
3 years 8,585 10,770 20,325 26,492 21,430
4-9 years 54,283 46,114 79,022 79,470 86,337
10 and above 191,618 255,658 246,126 278,902 329,910
Source: Mongolian Statistical Yearbook, 2013.
Table 8.5 shows the length of different types of the national road network in Mongolia. In 2010, 3,016km, or 45% of the total road length was paved road, increased to 5,838km, or 65% in 2013, and tending to increase in future.
Table 8.5. Improved roads by length
Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Improved road length, km 6,734.4 7,633.5 7,652.9 8,875.6 9,428.2
Paved road 3,015.6 4,063.5 4,082.9 5,838.2 6,461.0
Gravel top road 2,071.6 1,959.2 1,959.2 1,864.8 1,782.5
Improved soil road 1,647.2 1,610.8 1,910.8 1,172.6 1,184.7
Source: Mongolian Statistical Yearbook, 2013.
Climate Change Mitigation
52
Chapter 8
8.1.1.3. Industrial sector
GHG emissions in the industrial sector include CO2 and SO2 emissions from cement manufacturing, CO2 emissions from lime manufacturing, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions from food and beverage production, as well as different halocarbons that are also consumed in various applications such as air conditioners and refrigerators (Table 8.6).
Table 8.6. CO2 emissions from lime production, Gg
Production GasesYears
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012
CementCO2 219.74 54.24 45.71 55.78 70.19 160.77 212.26 174.18
SO2 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.10 0.13 0.10
Lime CO2 93.73 46.77 33.67 73.89 54.92 45.68 41.22 62.06
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
The relevant precursor gas emitted during food production is NMVOCs. They are produced during the processing of cereals and fruits in preparation for the fermentation processes. The estimates of emissions from food and beverages were made for the annual production of spirit, beer, wine, meat and meat products, bread, cakes and animal feeds. NMVOC emissions from beer production were not estimated in the period from 1990 to 1994 due to a lack of information on beer production. The NMVOC total emissions in 1990 were 1.208Gg and reduced to 0.802Gg in 2012. Table 8.7 shows the total NMVOC emissions by food and beverages categories for the period 1990-2012.
Table 8.7. Total NMVOC emissions from food and beverages production in the industrial sector, Gg
Products/Years 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
Beer - 0.0005 0.001 0.003 0.016 0.023
Spirit 0.521 0.318 0.569 0.464 0.541 0.496
Alcohol, wine 0.005 0.003 0.005 0.006 0.016 0.022
Meat, fish and poultry 0.019 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.005
Cakes, biscuits 0.038 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.013 0.015
Bread 0.506 0.294 0.162 0.181 0.174 0.203
Animal feed 0.119 0.047 0.011 0.016 0.066 0.038
TOTAL 1.208 0.675 0.747 0.681 0.830 0.802
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
Potential product halocarbon emissions (HFCs) were calculated and contained in various products such as refrigeration and air conditioning, which are imported, using the Tier 1b methodology of IPCC guidelines. The number of total refrigerators and cars with air conditioners is available in the Statistical Yearbooks of Mongolia. The quantity of material per unit (emission factor) selected from default factors in Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories. Table 8.8 shows total emissions related to halocarbons.
53
Climate Change MitigationChapter 8
Table 8.8. Total emissions related to halocarbons, Gg
Gases/Years 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
HFCs 0.01 0.03 0.15 0.56 1.36 1.92
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
8.1.1.4. Agricultural sector
CH4 and N2O emissions from livestock are directly affected by the number of livestock and the manure management practices employed. The amount of CH4 that is released depends on the type, age, weight of the animal, the quality and quantity of the feed, and the energy expenditure of the animal. Most Mongolian livestock is indigenous breeds that graze throughout the year on natural pastures with low productivity and a small size as compared to other breeds of animals in the world. Moreover, the climate of Mongolia influences the type of forage and the amount digested by livestock annually. Therefore, emission factors of CH4 for enteric fermentation and manure management have been developed for Mongolian specific conditions using a Tier 2 approach.
N2O emissions related to manure handling before the manure is added to soils are included in N2O emissions from manure management category. According to IPCC guidelines (1996, 2006) on manure management system categorization and definition, only pasture/range/paddock and daily spread systems occur in Mongolia. Therefore, during storage and treatment of these two systems, N2O emissions are assumed to be zero. N2O emissions from the land application of Mongolian livestock are covered under the agricultural soil category.
Agriculture residues were calculated for wheat and potatoes as these are the most common crops in Mongolia. However, GHG emissions from the field burning of agriculture residues were very small compared to other emissions from agriculture.
N2O emissions from agricultural soils are primarily due to the microbial processes of nitrification and denitrification in the soil. Direct soil N2O emissions of from animal production include those induced by grazing animals. Cultivation of organic soils may increase soil organic matter mineralization and, in effect, N2O emissions. Results of the GHG emissions calculation from the agricultural sector are shown in Table 8.9.
Table 8.9. GHG Emissions from the agricultural sector, Gg
Years
Methane Emissions from Domestic LivestockField Burning of Agricultural
ResiduesAgricultural
soilsEnteric
fermentation
Manure
Management TotalCH4 CH4 CH4 N2O NOx CO N2O
1990 274.89 7.04 281.93 0.22 0.0044 0.16 4.71 11.22
1995 296.93 7.73 304.66 0.08 0.0016 0.06 1.72 6.05
2000 296.69 7.64 304.33 0.05 0.0009 0.03 0.97 3.57
2005 257.50 6.24 263.74 0.03 0.0005 0.02 0.57 3.14
2006 286.84 6.81 293.65 0.05 0.0009 0.03 1.00 2.84
Climate Change Mitigation
54
Chapter 8
2007 326.14 7.58 333.72 0.04 0.0008 0.03 0.85 2.77
2008 344.73 7.83 352.56 0.07 0.0014 0.05 1.50 3.60
2009 356.39 8.04 364.42 0.13 0.0025 0.09 2.65 5.05
2010 276.29 6.47 282.76 0.12 0.0023 0.08 2.44 5.41
2011 301.58 7.08 308.66 0.15 0.0029 0.10 3.05 6.56
2012 340.99 7.92 348.91 0.16 0.0031 0.11 3.31 7.39
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
8.1.1.5. Waste sector
The GHG inventory of the waste sector is based on estimating CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal sites, CH4 emissions from wastewater handling, and N2O from human sewage. The urban population is used for the waste sector calculation since waste in rural areas is typically scattered on the land rather than in solid waste disposal sites (SWDSs). Mongolia has experienced trends towards increasing solid waste output, mainly due to a concentration of the population in urban areas, increased consumption and changes in the economic structure. In 2012, Mongolia had a total population of 2,867,744 people and 45.96% of the total population living in Ulaanbaatar, the capital city.
Methane emissions from wastewater handling were calculated for two basic types of wastewater treatment systems: domestic and commercial wastewater and industrial wastewater. In Mongolia, about one-third of domestic and commercial wastewater is treated by sewer systems with aerobic treatment. 30% of the population lives in apartments connected with central sewer systems, and the annual per capita protein intake is used for the nitrous oxide emission calculation.
Total methane emissions from waste were estimated at 7.51Gg (157.71Gg CO2-eq.) in 1990, and this amount increased to 11.27Gg (236.67Gg CO2-eq.) in 2012. During the period of estimations, about 95% of CH4 emissions came from solid waste disposal sites, about 1.7% came from industrial wastewater, and the leftover came from domestic wastewater. Total nitrous oxide from human sewage was estimated at 0.05Gg (15.5Gg CO2-eq.) in 1990 and this amount increased to 0.08Gg (24.8Gg CO2-eq.) in 2012. GHG emissions from the waste sector between 1990 and 2012 are summarized as Gg CO2-eq. and shown in Table 8.10.
Table 8.10. GHG emissions from the waste sector, Gg
Year
Methaneemissions from solid
waste disposal
sites
Wastewater handlingTotal
methane emission
Totalnitrous oxide
emission
Total GHG emissionsIndustrial
wastewater
Domestic and commercial wastewater
Sub-total
Human sewage
CH4 CH4 CH4 CH4 N2O CH4 N2OGg CO2-
eq.
1990 6.94 0.31 0.25 0.56 0.05 7.51 0.05 174.49
1995 7.03 0.08 0.27 0.34 0.06 7.37 0.06 173.05
2000 7.80 0.10 0.28 0.38 0.07 8.19 0.07 193.55
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Climate Change MitigationChapter 8
2005 8.75 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.07 9.14 0.07 215.11
2006 8.95 0.12 0.31 0.43 0.07 9.38 0.07 219.94
2010 9.98 0.21 0.33 0.54 0.08 10.52 0.08 245.68
2011 10.31 0.24 0.33 0.57 0.08 10.89 0.08 254.31
2012 10.66 0.26 0.34 0.60 0.08 11.27 0.08 262.82
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
8.1.1.6. Net GHG emissions
Total GHG emissions in Mongolia (energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste excluding land use land use change and forestry [LULUCF]) for the period 1990-2012 are presented in Table 8.11. In 1990, net GHG emissions were 21,145.5Gg CO2-eq., and GHG emissions reduced to 15,786.4Gg CO2-eq. in 2000. The reduction was mostly due to the socio-economic slowdown during the transition period from Mongolia’s central planned economy to a market economy from 1991 to around the year 2000. After 2000, total GHG emissions have steadily increased to 26,276.9Gg CO2-eq. in 2012.
The energy sector accounted for 53.2% of total GHG emissions in 1990 and 51.9% in 2012. The second largest source of GHG emissions is the agricultural sector, accounting for 44.5% of total GHG emissions in 1990 and 36.6% in 2012. The single largest emitter of CO2 is the energy sector. In 2012, 98.2% of total CO2 emissions were from the energy sector, which includes all types of fuel combustion activities (Table 8.11).
Total GHG emissions in Mongolia are comparatively low than other countries, but per capita GHG emissions are relatively high compared to other developing countries. This can be attributed to Mongolia’s extremely cold continental climate, the widespread use of fossil fuels for energy, and the low efficiency of fuel and energy use.
Table 8.11. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by gases (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.)
GHG source and sinks CO2 emissions CH4 N2O HFCs TOTAL
Gg CO2-eq.
1990
Energy 10,653.21 23.52 0.30 - 11,240.17
Industrial processes 313.47 - - 0.01 326.94
Agriculture - 282.15 11.22 - 9,403.91
Waste - 7.51 0.05 - 174.49
Total (excl. LULUCF sector) 10,966.68 313.18 11.58 0.01 21,145.51
2000
Energy 7,371.49 17.27 0.27 - 7,818.11
Industrial processes 79.38 - - 0.15 275.96
Agriculture - 304.38 3.57 - 7,498.82
Waste - 8.19 0.07 - 193.55
Climate Change Mitigation
56
Chapter 8
Total (excl. LULUCF sector) 7,450.87 329.84 3.91 0.15 15,786.43
2012
Energy 12,530.81 47.46 0.43 - 13,660.77
Industrial processes 236.24 - - 1.92 2,732.24
Agriculture - 349.07 7.39 - 9,621.11
Waste - 11.27 0.08 - 262.82
Total (excl. LULUCF sector) 12,767.05 407.80 7.90 1.92 26,276.94
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
Table 8.12. Mongolia’s total GHG emissions by sectors (excl. LULUCF sector) for the period 1990-2012 (Gg CO2-eq.)
Years/Categories Energy IndustrialProcesses Agriculture Waste TOTAL
1990 11,240.17 326.94 9,403.91 174.49 21,145.51
1995 7,760.93 139.29 8,275.05 173.05 16,348.32
2000 7,818.11 275.96 7,498.82 193.55 15,786.43
2005 8,499.93 857.67 6,511.29 215.11 16,084.01
2010 11,705.14 1,974.45 7,618.51 245.68 21,543.77
2011 12,414.95 2,892.48 8,518.62 254.31 24,080.36
2012 13,660.77 2,732.24 9,621.11 262.82 26,276.94
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
8.2. National BAU GHG emission
Projections of GHG emissions between 2006 and 2030 in Mongolia have been estimated in Mongolia’s Second National Communication in 2010 (MNET 2010). For the forecasting of emissions from energy sectors, which accounts for the majority of the GHG emissions and results from a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planing system (LEAP) model were used. LEAP is a scenario-based energy-environment modeling tool. Scenarios are based on a comprehensive accounting of how energy is consumed, converted and produced in a given region under a range of alternative assumptions on population, economic development, technology and other related measures. Projection of emissions from agriculture, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste sectors were calculated up to 2030 on the basis of previous trends, taking into account social and economic changes and currently implemented or adopted policies and measures. The aggregated projections of GHG emissions are shown in Table 8.13.
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Climate Change MitigationChapter 8
Table 8.13. Aggregated projections of GHG emissions by sector
SectorsGHG emissions in Gg CO2-eq. Average annual growth rate,%
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2006-2015
2015-2020
2020-2030
2006-2030
Energy 10,220 14,033 20,233 25,930 32,796 41,815 10.89 5.63 6.13 12.88
Industry 891 1,354 1,602 1,836 2,065 2,318 8.87 2.92 2.63 6.67
Agriculture 6,462 6,405 6,573 6,657 6,762 6,867 0.19 0.26 0.32 0.26
LULUCF -2,083 -1,932 -1,785 -1,420 -1,000 -680 -1.59 -4.09 -5.21 -2.81
Waste 138 158 183 209 254 294 3.62 2.84 4.07 4.71
Total 15,628 20,018 26,806 33,212 40,877 50,614 7.95 4.78 5.24 9.33
Source: MNET, UNEP: Mongolia Second National Communication, Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2010.
Total GHG emissions are projected to increase 3.25 times from 2006 to 2030. Generally, energy consumption is expected to increase rapidly due to economic and population growth. Energy consumption in the industrial sector is rapidly increasing due to the development of the mining and quarry industry in mining sectors. GHG emissions in energy sectors from 2006 to 2030 are expected to increase by 4 times.
According to the”Mongolian Livestock” National programme (State Great Khural 2010), the livestock population will be 36 million in 2021, in order to comply with the actual pasture carrying capacity and to prevent desertification. Therefore, GHG emissions are not expected to increase significantly. However, as of 2014, the total livestock population had already reached 50 million, causing a significant increase of GHG emissions, especially methane emissions, in the future.
In 2030, GHG emissions in the industry sector are expected to increase by a factor of 2.5, and in the waste sector by 2 times, compared to 2006. GHG removals in LULUCF will be reduced by a factor of 3 in the projected period (Figure 8.3 and Figure 8.4).
Several studies were undertaken to project GHG emissions after the publication of the Second National Communication in 2010. These include GHG emission projections in the energy sector prepared for a development of the national”Green Development Policy” (Dorjpurev, 2013), and also the energy sector projections prepared by Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) in 2014.The comparison of those projections is shown in Table 8.14.
050
100150200250300350400450
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Inde
x(2
006=
100)
Energy
Industry
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste
Figure 8.3. Projections of GHG emissions and removals (sector) Source: Mongolia Second National Communication, 2010.
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Inde
x (2
006=
100)
CO2
CH4
Figure 8.4. GHG emission projections (by gas types)Source: Mongolia Second National Communication, 2010.
Table 8.14. GHG Emission projections from Energy sector prepared in three different studies, million tonnes CO2-eq.
Documents 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
SNC
Consumption 7,8 10,4 13,7 17,7 -
Supply 12,5 15,6 19,2 24,1 -
Total 20,2 25,9 32,8 41,8 -
Green Strategy
Consumption 6,9 8,9 11,3 14,0 -
Supply 11,0 16,5 20,5 26,0 -
Total 17,9 25,4 31,8 40,0 -
GGGI
Consumption 9,0 11,9 14,8 18,2 21,8
Supply 11,4 24,8 27,8 30,1 33,8
Total 20,4 36,8 42,6 48,3 55,6
Source: MARCC-2014, Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change-2014
Figure 8.5 shows that previously stated three different projections are rather similar. The average of those projections shows that energy sector GHG emissions will reach 20 million
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2026
33
42
1825
32 4020
3743
4820
29
36
43
0
10
20
30
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50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sion
s, m
illio
n to
ns,C
O2-
eq
SNC Green strategy GGGI Average
Figure 8.5. Comparison of GHG emission projections prepared in three different studies
8.3. Assumptions and methods for establishing BAU emissions in the energy sector
8.3.1. Method
The study of energy sector BAU emissions employs a bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy and GHG-reduction scenarios. This type of analysis is commonly used by countries in their energy and climate change mitigation planning. In a bottom-up analysis, energy demand is specified according to assumptions on how underlying drivers (e.g. population, mineral production) may evolve, and does not take into account responses to economic changes (such as changes in consumer spending or other macroeconomic variables) that may result from the measures introduced. This approach is straightforward, and is more transparent to analysts and decision makers, than more complicated methods involving economic models. BAU scenarios were assembled in the LEAP model1.
8.3.2. Assumptions
The energy consumption in the household sector depends on the growth rates of the population, the number of households and income level. GHG emissions from the residential sector are projected to increase, largely due to the increase of population with a growth rate of 3%. Energy consumption in the household sector will increase by a factor of 1.84 in 2020 and by 2.55 in 2030 from the base year of 2006. Energy consumption in the industrial sector is rapidly increasing due to the development of the mining and quarrying industry in mining projects such as Oyu Tolgoi, Tavan Tolgoi and other mining projects, especially from 2014 to 2020.
The transportation sector is also projected to exhibit a high growth rate of GHG emissions in the energy sector due to the relatively high increase in the number of vehicles and the demand for freight transport.
In order to meet growing energy demand, new energy sources such as a Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP) in Ulaanbaatar with a capacity of 300MW, Wind farm in Salhit Uul near Ulaanbaatar with a capacity of 50MW, Mogoin Gol thermal power plant of 60MW, Hushuut thermal power plant of 36MW and Tavan Tolgoi thermal power plant of 300-600MW are expected
1 See http://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=47 for a full description of the LEAP model.
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to be established according to the infrastructure development programme of the Government planned to be realized in few years. It is also assumed to rehabilitate and increase the capacity of existing power plants.
8.3.3. Energy sector (power and heat) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario
During the preparation of the INDC submission, Mongolia decided to use BAU projections from the Second National Communication as the official BAU scenario for its INDC. According to this, BAU projection total GHG emissions in the energy sector accounts for 25.94Gg CO2-eq. in 2020 and 41.82Gg of CO2-eq. in 2030 (Table 8.15).
Table 8.15. GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.) from energy sector for BAU scenario
Specification 2010 2015 2020 2030
Demand 4.52 7.78 10.37 17.69
Transformation 8.10 12.45 15.57 24.13
Total 12.61 20.23 25.94 41.82
Source: LEAP calculation for Second National Communication
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2026 2028 2030
Thou
sand
tonn
es o
f CO
2-eq
.
Demand Transformation
Figure 8.6. GHG emissions from energy demand and energy transformationSource: LEAP calculation for Second National Communication
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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Thou
sand
tonn
es o
f CO
2-eq
.
Baganuur PP CHP2 CHP3 CHP4
CHPChoibalsan CHPDalanzadgad CHPDarkhan CHPErdenet
CPH5 Coal Fired PP Diesel Hushuut PP
Mogoin gol PP Tavan tolgoi PP Uhaa hudag PP
Figure 8.7. GHG emissions from power plantsSource: LEAP calculation for Second National Communication
8.3.4. Energy sector (transport) Business as Usual (BAU) or Reference Scenario
Table 8.16 shows expected growth of GHG emissions from the transport sector, caused by constant population growth and socio-economic development.
Table 8.16. GHG emissions caused from transportation sector, kt CO2
Branches 2015 2020 2025 2030
Freight 1,167.0 1,572.0 2,118.0 2,854.0Passenger 1,070.0 1,394.0 1,762.0 2,177.0Total 2,236.0 2,966.0 3,880.0 5,031.0
Source: Second National Communication, LEAP model calculations
8.4. Non-energy sector
8.4.1. Industrial sector
Energy consumption in the industrial sector is rapidly increasing due to the development of mining and quarrying, as well as other industries. The projection of GHG emissions from these industries is included in the energy sector above. Therefore, in this sector cement and lime production as well as potential emissions from consumption of HFCs are presented. Due to an increase in construction, urban and industrial development, cement production is expected to increase by 4.1 fold in 2020 and by 6 fold in 2030 compared to the 2006 level. While the production of lime is projected to increase
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by 2 fold in 2020 and by 3 fold in 2030 compared to the 2006 level. It is assumed that the potential emissions from the consumption of HFCs will be increased by 2.3 in 2030 from the base year 2006, due to an increase of different kinds of refrigerators and cooling systems.
8.4.2. Agriculture
The most GHG emissions emitted from agriculture is methane. Enteric fermentation and manure management are major sources of methane. The projection of methane emissions from agriculture sector depends on changes of livestock population. According to Mongolia National livestock programme, the population of livestock is intended to be decreased from the 43 million in 2008 down to 36 million in 2021 to comply with the actual pasture carrying capacity and to prevent the desertification (State Great Khural, 2010).
8.4.3. Land use, land-use change and forestry
Crop cultivation plays an important role in sustaining self-sufficiency in foodstuffs. After the privatization of the large state-controlled farms in the 1990s, crop production fell sharply, a decline blamed on a lack of management skills, funds, and technologies. However, as a result of “Third agriculture campaign” launched by the Government of Mongolia, the production of cereals, potatoes and vegetables is being increased rapidly since 2008. In 2009, Mongolia produced 255 thousand tonnes of cereals while the production of cereals was 138.6 thousand tonnes in 2006. It is projected that cultivated land for the crop would increase from 162,040 ha in 2006 up to 400,000 ha in 2020. However, the total cultivated area including crop rotation area would not exceed 650,000 ha in 2020. It is assumed that the lands used for industrial mining would be increased by 12% annually. Also, the forest plantation between 2010 and 2020 is proposed to increase by 10% per year while annual biomass consumption from stocks would be reduced by 4% annually.
8.4.4. Waste
GHG emissions from solid waste, domestic and commercial waste water are expected to increase by 3% annually between 2000 and 2020. Population, lifestyle, water consumption level and other relevant measures would directly affect the amount of GHGs emitted from domestic sewage. However, future changes in lifestyle and increase of urban population are projected to result in a growth rate of methane emissions from domestic sewage. GHG emissions from industrial wastewater, which is influenced by the amount of industrial water converted into wastewater, are also estimated to growth at a rate of 5% annually.
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CHAPTER 9. OPTIONS FOR MITIGATION COMPONENT OF THE INDC
The Lima Call for Action invited countries to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) in order to reach the achievement of the major objective as set out in Article 2 of the Convention. Article 2 of the Convention outlines the international agreement to achieve the stabilisation of GHG concentrations at a level which avoids dangerous anthropogenic climatic change. The INDC process, therefore, concerns itself first and foremost with climate change mitigation action; it is an opportunity for Parties to communicate what they consider to be their appropriate contribution to the achievement of the global goal, given their respective responsibilities and capabilities. It is also an opportunity, for Parties who wish to do so, to communicate the financial and technical support needs that are required in order to increase the contribution to emission reductions.
This chapter describes issues relevant to Mongolia on the possible types of INDC mitigation contributions, their format, and some technical and practical considerations relevant to the proposed INDC document.
9.1. Type and format of mitigation contribution
9.1.1. Type of mitigation contribution
Countries are free to propose any type of mitigation contribution that they consider to be most appropriate to their national circumstances.
The following list outlines the broadest categories of INDC types which Parties may consider using to structure their contributions. These types are explored in further details below:
• Economy-wide GHG emissions target: e.g. reduce national GHG emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels (e.g. EU target).
• Sectoral GHG emissions target: e.g. reduce emissions in the energy sector by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
• Decarbonization indicator: e.g. reduce national emissions intensity in terms of emissions per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels; increase the share of renewable electricity generation to 40% by 2030.
• Policies and measures: e.g. develop and/or implement specific policies or specific actions with a climate change mitigation impact.
These formats may also be used in combination with each other to provide further details and transparency. Although most existing submissions to the UNFCCC INDC portal include economy-wide GHG emission targets, NewClimate Institute research indicates that fewer than half of countries worldwide are eventually likely to develop such targets, with either countries likely to present their contributions either in the form of sectoral targets or a list of quantified or unquantified policies and measures.
The type of INDC chosen should be based largely upon the respective capabilities of the country. In this context, the capability may refer to resources available for INDC preparation, data availability, the availability of existing analysis on mitigation scenarios, and, to an extent, the resources available for the implementation of mitigation measures. The type of format for the INDC is not necessarily linked to the degree of mitigation ambition; Parties with limited resources for the implementation of mitigation measures may still present economy-wide targets if they have the required capability to do so. On the other hand, it should be considered that carefully planned and clearly communicated policies and measures may have a greater mitigation impact and may attract more international support than hastily constructed economy-wide targets which are unclear and/or less efficient in their implementation.
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9.1.2. Economy-wide GHG emission target
The use of an economy-wide target provides the clearest communication of the INDC impact, and as such it is generally preferred across the international community. However, such an expression requires the sufficient availability of data to create a reliable bottom-up calculation of emission scenarios for all sectors. Countries with limited capability in this regard are not expected to produce this type of target, as its formulation in the absence of sufficient baseline information may lead to INDCs that are unrealistic, unachievable, or incomparable.
The international community would consider the unconditional contribution fulfilled as long as the final result of the stated emissions reduction is achieved. Failure to reach the quantified target will result in the contribution being considered unfulfilled, regardless of the number of policies, measures and actions that have been implemented. Although this type of target provides the clearest information to the international community with regard to the 2°C goal, it was agreed that this was an unsuitable format for Mongolia by the national technical team for the following reasons:
• Mongolia is a country in transition; the future trajectory of the country’s development is less predictable than for most developed countries. An absolute emission target may over-burden Mongolia if the development of the economy continues at a rate much higher than planned. Similarly, this type of target could lock-in lower than intended ambition in the case that the actual development trajectory falls short of the projections.
• Whilst the data availability is very good for some sectors in Mongolia, such as the energy sector, in some others sectors the availability of data and emission reduction potential is not fully comprehensive. Proceeding with an economy-wide target would present a risk given the uncertainty of the supporting information.
9.1.3. Sectoral GHG emission target
Sectoral targets may be used by countries who wish to express an aggregated target, but do not have sufficient capabilities to do so in all sectors. In this case, mitigation scenarios can be expressed as aggregated GHG emission targets for one or several sectors, whilst other sectors that the country still wishes to include in its INDC could be included through the expression of individual policies and measures or excluded altogether.
As per the economy-wide target, the international community would consider the unconditional contribution fulfilled only if the final result of the stated emissions reduction is achieved. Due to the good detail of information available for the energy sector, this type of INDC could be technically feasible for Mongolia. However, it was not deemed the most appropriate construction for Mongolia, since the uncertainty regarding the development of national circumstances entails a risk if bound to a specific quantified target.
9.1.4. Decarbonization indicator
Use of a decarbonization indicator, such as the share of renewables in the energy system, or emissions intensity of energy, may be a suitable expression of the INDC for Parties that are interested to put forward a specific quantified decarbonization target, but who do not wish to be bound to a specific GHG emission outcome due to the unpredictability of national growth and development in the coming decades. This type of target is particularly suitable for developing countries with a great potential for short and mid-term economic growth, especially those where the energy sector continues to rely largely on traditional fuels. It provides a statement of intent to continue to grow a more sustainable economy. However, it does not provide the international community with assurances on the actual GHG emissions outcome.
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There could be several options for this type of target for Mongolia: energy emissions intensity target for the energy sector, emissions intensity per capita, emissions intensity per unit of GDP, or share of renewables in the electricity generation.
Fulfilment of the contribution in the eyes of the international community would be based upon reaching the decarbonization indicator target, not upon the implementation of the underlying policies from which is was calculated. This presents some potential risks/implications for Mongolia: if the complete implementation of these measures (e.g. new renewable capacity installation) does not create the anticipated effect in terms of the amount of energy generated, for example, Mongolia would need to take more actions to meet the target. Furthermore, if energy sector demand increased at a higher than expected rate, more renewable electricity generation would need to be installed to maintain the balance indicated by the decarbonization indicator. Due to the risk of being bound to the achievement of the target, this type was not considered the most appropriate construction for Mongolia.
9.1.5. Policies and measures
This option is suitable for countries where limited data availability prevents the development of reliable bottom-up calculations for emission reduction potential in any sectors. The format is also suitable for countries who do not wish to be bound to a quantified target, but would rather be bound”only” to the execution of activities. It is highly advisable if presenting policies and measures to include an illustrative indication of the potential scale of the mitigation impact, as far as the data allows. This enhances transparency and international understanding of the contribution, and will also attract much greater interest from potential funders.
The international community would consider the unconditional contribution fulfilled as long as the measures have been implemented, regardless of the outcomes of these measures or changes in uncertain factors such as economic development. Use of this format of INDC need not restrict the ambition of the contribution, as ambitious policies and actions can be put forward.
Due to limited data availability in some sectors, uncertain development of national circumstces, the risk entailed by specific quantified targets, and the potential for ambitious action through policies and measures, the mitigation team along with the consulted stakeholders deemed a ”policies and measures” approach to be the most appropriate construction for the mitigation contribution of Mongolia’s INDC.
9.1.6. Format of mitigation contribution
Countries are free to submit their INDCs in any format which they consider to be appropriate. However, for the sake of transparency and comparability it is preferable for countries to follow a common format. There is a general consensus on the elements that INDCs should ideally contain, and several organisations have developed templates for INDC submissions, which are likely to be widely used.
Most existing official submissions, as of August 2015, contained concisely summarised information on the mitigation contribution, occupying around 3-5 pages including a number of specific elements for transparent communication.
Mongolia’s proposed mitigation contribution also follows this format and uses international templates for maximum clarity and transparency.
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9.2. Timing considerations for mitigation contribution
9.2.1. Target year for activities
Countries can choose a post-2020 target year for their actions. To date, countries have chosen 2025 and/or 2030 as target dates. Some developing countries and environmental NGOs argue that a short timeframe for developed countries (i.e. 2025) allows for more frequent review and increasing ambition over time. On the other hand, a 2030 target provides longer-term strategy and investment signals.
The target dates for the individual policies and measures contained in Mongolia’s mitigation contribution vary depending on the target date of the original strategy. For the most important actions in the contribution, the target date for full implementation of the activities is 2030.
9.2.2. Period of implementation
The international climate change agreement to be reached in Paris in December 2015 is a post-2020 agreement. That is to say, that the agreement will be based around common post-2020 international targets.
However, this does not mean that the proposed national contributions should only include measures to be implemented post-2020. For countries with internationally-communicated climate change targets for 2020 it is logical that only post-2020 actions are relevant, since pre-2020 actions are covered under the existing target. However, for countries without existing internationally-communicated climate change targets for 2020, all activity that takes place up to the date of the target is relevant to the achievement of the target, including measures that begin pre-2020.
As Mongolia does not have a formal internationally communicated climate change target for any previous date, all activities are immediately relevant to the achievement of the implementation of the listed policies and measures. As such, the INDC includes the main policies and measures that will be implemented between 2015 and 2030.
9.3. Unilateral and supported contributions
Some countries have indicated that they wish to present a conditional contribution, based upon specific conditions regarding the availability of international finance, or the level of ambition proposed by other countries. For this reason, some countries are expected to put forwards two sets of potential contributions, typically referred to in the international community as unconditional or unilateral contributions, and conditional or supported contributions.
For these countries, a major challenge in determining an INDC is to identify how much should be done unilaterally by the country and how much could be done with the support of the international community.
A conceptual approach that could be used to identify both the conditional and unconditional pledge is by developing analysis to determine what should a country do, given its responsibility and capability, and what could the country do, given its national circumstances.
Many developing countries will define their unconditional contributions based on an assessment of the impacts of existing ongoing programmes and plans with climate/energy implications, alongside other measures that the country is able to put forward unilaterally under its best efforts. For many developing countries, additional measures put forward unilaterally are likely to be measures that align very closely to national development priorities, and therefore entail considerable other benefits for the country.
Other potential mitigation actions that cannot be covered as part of the unilateral contribution
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could be considered a conditional addition, based on the receipt of sufficient support. Here, a country has the opportunity to state a list of actions (or collectively, an enhanced target) that it may implement if sufficient external support is received. Showing ambition in the unilateral and the conditional parts makes a country attractive for international funding for the implementation of actions, and these actions may have major synergies with the national development agenda.
In Mongolia, stakeholders communicated concern at the wording of unilateral or unconditional contributions, since the ongoing national climate change strategy is dependent on the continuation of existing support from various sources. Therefore, the wording of this split contribution was adjusted: the ‘national contribution’, which contains the main policies and measures proposed under Mongolia’s INDC, is “contingent upon the continuation of international support to complement domestic efforts”; an ‘additional actions’ section highlights further measures that Mongolia would also be “interested to pursue”.
9.4. Political and legal implications of the mitigation component
INDCs are provisional contributions, not commitments. They are designed as an input to the negotiation of the 2015 climate change agreement in Paris. Upon their submission to the UNFCCC, these documents remain provisional contributions, not legally-binding commitments. It is quite probable, but not certain, that INDCs (intended NDCs) will become anchored in an agreement to be negotiated in Paris, but the original INDCs will not be legally binding, and can be adjusted at any time until a final agreement is reached. However, it is possible that final INDCs anchored in the Paris agreement may become legally binding (depending on how Parties choose to negotiate the structure of the agreement), and so it is of key importance that all Parties receive provisional political approval for their intended INDCs in advance. Countries are expected to go through this political process in advance of their submission to the UNFCCC.
9.5. Type and format of Mongolia’s mitigation contribution
A blend of approaches based on policies and measures, with illustrative information.
The mitigation component of Mongolia’s contribution is based on a policies and measures approach. That is to say, fulfilment of the INDC will be considered complete if the policies and actions listed in the INDC are implemented. The proposed policies and measures represent the ambitious plans of existing national strategy and legislation, including the state policy for the energy sector (Parliament resolution No. 63, 2015), Urban public transport investment programme (2015), the National action plan for climate change (Government resolution No. 171, 2012), and the “Mongolian Livestock” national programme (Parliament resolution No. 23, 2010).
Furthermore, Mongolia’s contribution includes elements of the other types of contribution, for illustrative purposes. The potential impacts of the proposed policies and measures are calculated and indicated, presenting the potential sectoral and economy-wide GHG emissions impact. Furthermore, the policies and measures themselves include a decarbonization indicator in the form of a renewable energy target.
The type and format of Mongolia’s mitigation contribution are a good practice for the following reasons:
• The proposed policies and measures are ambitious yet grounded in national strategy and legislation, and therefore realistic.
• The proposed policies and measures hold major synergies with the national development strategy and non-climate related objectives. Implementation of the INDC measures will assist with the achievement of these objectives, and the INDC plans will help to mainstream climate considerations in development planning in all sectors.
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• The type and format of the mitigation contribution are highly transparent in its potential impact (through illustration of potential sectoral and economy-wide GHG emission impact), whilst managing the risk by being bound only to the implementation of the actions rather than the achievement of the expected outcomes.
• The format for presenting the mitigation contribution follows closely the examples of existing submissions and uses international templates for maximum clarity and transparency.
• The INDC highlights, in addition to the main policies and measures that are included in the national contribution, additional areas of action that it would be interested to explore further in the case that resources and capacity are available. In doing so, the INDC shows both a way that Mongolia can be supported by international funds to increase its mitigation level and also shows how Mongolia intends to expand its existing targets and sectoral coverage in the future, as capacity and resources for climate change mitigation planning within other sectors is enhanced.
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CHAPTER 10. MONGOLIA’S INDC: MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION
By 2030, Mongolia intends to contribute to global efforts to mitigate GHG emissions by implementing the policies and measures listed in Table 10.1, contingent upon the continuation of international support to complement domestic efforts. These policies and measures were identified by technical experts, in consultation with key Mongolian stakeholders, and subjected to a series of validation meetings and workshops in 2015.
Table 10.1. Proposed policies and measures for Mongolia’s INDC
Sector Measure Policy/strategy document
Energy (power and heat)
Increase renewable electricity capacity from 7.62% in 2014 to 20% by 2020 and to 30% by 2030 as a share of total electricity generation capacity.
- State policy on energy (Parliament resolution No. 63, 2015);
- Green development policy, 2014
Reduce electricity transmission losses from 13.7% in 2014 to 10.8% by 2020 and to 7.8% by 2030.
Reduce building heat loss by 20% by 2020 and by 40% by 2030, compared to 2014 levels.
Reduce internal energy use of Combined Heat and Power plants (improved plant efficiency) from 14.4% in 2014 to 11.2% by 2020 and 9.14% by 2030.
Implement advanced technology in energy production such as super critical pressure coal combustion technology by 2030.
Energy (Transport)
Improve national paved road network. Upgrading/Paving 8000 km by 2016, 11000 km by 2021.
- National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC), 2011;
- Urban public transport investment programme, 2015;
- Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), 2010;
- Mid-term new development programme, 2010
Improve Ulaanbaatar city road network to decrease all traffic by 30-40% by 2023.
Increase the share of private hybrid road vehicles from approximately 6.5% in 2014 to approximately 13% by 2030.
Shift from liquid fuel to LPG for vehicles in Ulaanbaatar and aimag (province) centres by improving taxation and environmental fee system.
Improve enforcement mechanism of standards for road vehicles and non-road based transport.
Industrial sector
Reduce emissions in the cement industry through upgrading the processing technology from wet- to dry-processing and through the construction of a new cement plant with dry processing up to 2030.
- NAMAs, 2010;
- NAPCC, 2011;
- Government resolution No. 171, 2012: Building materials programme
AgricultureMaintain livestock population at appropriate levels according to the pasture carrying capacity.
- “Mongolian livestock” national programme, 2010
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Mongolia has also identified a series of additional mitigation actions in:• Reduce fuel use in individual households through improving stove efficiency (with
co-benefit of air pollution reduction), • Transport (development of Bus Rapid Transit [BRT] system and improvement of
the public transport system in Ulaanbaatar), • Agriculture (development of a comprehensive plan for emission reductions in the
livestock sub-sector for implementation between 2020 and 2030),• Waste sector (development of a waste management plan, including recycling,
waste-to-energy, and best management practices), and• Industry (motor-efficiency improvements, improved housekeeping).
Furthermore, for forestry, a programme is underway in Mongolia to develop a detailed inventory along with the identification of mitigation options for this sector. In future communications, Mongolia intends to include actions for mitigation in the forestry sector to reduce GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation by 2% by 2020 and 5% by 2030 (according to State Policy on Forest, 2015).
These measures are largely in-line with the NAMAs submitted at the Conference of the Parties (COP) 15 Meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark in December 2009. Mongolia expressed its intention to agree to the Copenhagen Accord, and subsequently Mongolia submitted a list of proposed NAMAs to the UNFCCC secretariat in January 2010. In its list of NAMAs, Mongolia submitted 22 mitigation options in six sectors towards reducing GHG emissions (Table 10.2).
Table 10.2. List of NAMAs of Mongolia to the Copenhagen Accord
Sectors Technologies
Energy supply
• PV and Solar heating• Wind power generators and Wind farms• Hydropower plants• Coal beneficiation• Coal briquetting• Improve efficiency of existing HOBs and install boilers with new design and high efficiency• Convert hot water boilers into small capacity thermal power plants• Change fuels for household stoves and furnaces• Modernize existing and implement the new design for household stoves and furnaces • Improve efficiency and reduce internal use in CHPs • Use of electricity from grid for individual households for local heating in cities
Building
• Improve district heating system in buildings• Install heat and hot water metres in apartments• Make insulation improvements for existing buildings and implement new energy efficient standards for new buildings• Improve lighting efficiency in buildings
Industry• Improve housekeeping practices• Implement motor efficiency improvements• Introducing dry-processing in cement industry
Transport • Use more fuel efficient vehicles
Agriculture • Limit the increase of the total number of livestock by increasing the productivity of each type of animal, especially cattle
Forestry• Improve forest management• Reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, improve sustainable management of forests and enhance forest carbon stocks
Source: http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/items/5265.php
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CHAPTER 11. ASSESSMENT OF MITIGATION IMPACT, FAIRNESS AND AMBITION OF THE INDC
11.1. Mitigation impact of INDC The emissions inventory for 2010 was compiled using IPCC 2006 guidelines and GWP values from IPCC AR4, as described in Mongolia’s Second National Communication. The BAU baseline was defined according to the methodology given in Mongolia’s Second National Communication. Indicative emissions reductions of the measures in table 10.1 were determined using LEAP modelling (energy: power and heat, energy: transport), 2006 IPCC GPG (energy: transport), and Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (industry). Agricultural emission reduction measures could not be estimated due to a lack of available background information, and are thus not included in the indicative estimate.
11.1.1. GHG Mitigation Scenarios in energy sector
The following mitigation measures have been modelled in a mitigation scenario using LEAP and correspond to the mitigation contribution of the INDC.
Renewable energy scenario
The RENEWABLE scenario comprises all individual measures listed in Table 11.1 and has been calculated separately as the effects of individual measures cannot be added up. Calculation results are shown in Table below:
Table 11.1. Capacity of renewable energy sources for electricity generation, MW
No. Name of energy sources
Newly installed capacity, MW
Source2015-2023 2024-2030
1
Hydropower plants:
Eg HPP 315 -State policy on energy sector (Parliament resolution No. 63, 2015), Ministry of Energy (MOE)
Erdeneburen HPP in Khovd river 60 - State policy on energy sector (Parliament
resolution No. 63, 2015), MOE
HPP in Selenge river - 300 State policy on energy sector (Parliament
resolution No. 63, 2015), MOE
2
Wind Parks:
Oyutolgoi wind park 102 - Feasibility study (FS) approved by MOE
Sainshand wind park - 52 MOE
Wind Park in Gobi region - 200 State policy on energy sector (Parliament
resolution No. 63, 2015), MOE
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3
Large scale solar PV:
Solar PV in Darkhan city 10 - FS approved by MOE
Large scale solar PV in Gobi region - 100 State policy on energy sector (Parliament
resolution No. 63, 2015), MOE
Solar PV in Taishir 10 - Government programme, MOE
Solar PV in Durgun 10 - Government programme, MOE
Solar PV in Western region 15 - Government programme, MOE
Energy efficiency scenario
Assumptions for energy efficiency measures are shown in Table 11.4 and Table 11.5.
Table 11.2. Assumptions for reduction of electricity transmission and distribution of power plant own use losses and building energy efficiency
Activities 2014 2023 2030
Electricity transmission and distribution losses 13.7 10.8 7.8
Power plant (station) own use 14.4 11.2 9.14
Building energy efficiency 0 20 40
Source: State policy on energy sector (Parliament resolution No.63, 2015)
Table 11.3. Assumptions for power plant electric efficiency improvement, %
Power plants Reference (BAU) scenario (high pressure technology)
Mitigation (EE) scenario(super critical pressure technology)
Tavan Tolgoi Power Plant 35 43
Baganuur Power plant 35 43
Source: Namkhainyam B., Environment, energy and technology, Ulaanbaatar, 2014, page 171.
Calculation results from LEAP are shown in Table 11.4.
Total GHG emission reductions in energy sector
The combined effect of the different measures elaborated above is represented in the following section. The total effect of each scenario is given separately as well as the effects of totalling scenarios as the effects of individual scenarios cannot be added up. The total effect results in an emission reduction of 4.9 million tonnes CO2-eq. by 2030. The table below illustrates the cumulative effects of all of the measures.
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Table 11.4. GHG emissions in different scenarios, million tonnes CO2-eq.
Scenarios 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference (BAU) scenario 20.23 25.93 32.80 41.81
Mitigation scenarios
Building Energy efficiency (EE) improvement 20.23 25.83 32.07 40.34
Transmission and distribution losses improvement 20.21 25.66 32.20 40.86
Station own use improvement 20.21 25.63 32.19 40.95
Power plant EE improvement 20.23 25.58 32.35 41.21
EE Total 20.19 25.03 31.14 39.52
Hydro Power Plant 20.23 25.87 32.21 40.68
Wind Park 20.23 25.78 32.58 41.21
Solar PV 20.23 25.90 32.74 41.56
RENEWABLE TOTAL 20.23 25.69 31.86 39.96
TOTAL 20.19 24.78 30.21 36.93
Source: LEAP calculation
11.1.2. Energy (transport) emissions reductions calculation
11.1.2.1 Business as Usual (BAU)
Mongolia has a wide territory with sparse population. Thus the transport sector is one of the important sectors in the economy. 2006 IPCC GPG and LEAP modelling were used for emissions and reductions estimates for the energy (transport) sector and results compared to the BAU baseline.
Based on the assumptions that as a result of an implementation of the policies listed in the Table 10.1, it is agreed among experts and stakeholder the emissions reduction will be 10% by 2020, 25% by 2025 and 35% by 2030. Assumption for the estimation include comparison of emissions from paved and unpaved roads, mid-to-low speeds (e.g. between 20km/h and 40km/h, decreases in emissions are roughly proportional to decreases in journey times (according to analysis from http://www.dcsc.tudelft.nl/~bdeschutter/pub/rep/09_004.pdf), percentage of population live in urban area and journeys in the city center etc.
Some countries without emissions standards have estimated emissions reductions from the introduction of fuel economy or emissions standards of around 25%-35%. Given the lack of information available for fuel economy or vehicle emissions in Mongolia, it is conservatively assumed that the design and implementation of an emissions standard could reduce road transport emissions by 20%.
Table 11.5. GHG emission reduction, million tonnes CO2-eq.
Sector 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy-transport 0 297 970 1760
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11.1.3. Industrial measure (cement) emissions reductions calculation
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories used for emissions reductions estimates for the industrial measure (cement processing). Calculation based on the following assumptions: (1) the recent annual use of cement, which is 3.5 million tonnes, (2) all planned dry technology plants are in place by 2030. This results in a 0.7 million tonnes CO2-eq. per annum reduction in 2030.
11.1.4. Agriculture emissions reductions calculation
Agricultural emission reduction measures could not be estimated due to a lack of available background information, and are thus not included in the indicative estimate.
11.2. Net emissions reductions
The cumulative impact of the measures listed in Table 10.1 is estimated to result in approximately an annual reduction of 7.3 million tonnes CO2-eq. of economy-wide emissions in 2030, corresponding to a 14% reduction compared to a BAU scenario, excluding LULUCF.
20
30
40
50
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Tota
l GHG
em
issio
ns (e
xcl.
LULU
CF)
(MtC
O2-e
q.)
BAUMitigation scenario
Energy: power and heat4.9 MtCO2-eq.
Industry0.7 MtCO2-eq.
Energy: transport1.7 MtCO2-eq.
Potential reductions
Figure 11.1. Indicative potential emissions reductions of the measures compared to BAU emissions
11.3. Fairness and ambition of INDC
Mongolia has a low responsibility for climate change mitigation in terms of its historic emissions, and limited capacity due to relatively challenging environmental conditions including a long lasting heating season, a coal-based electricity production system, a lack of access to cleaner fossil fuels and a highly dispersed population particularly in remote areas (lack of access to the electricity grid). This has led to a high emission per capita ratio. Mongolia is committed to the decarbonization of its growing economy and intends to reduce its emissions intensity by implementing the proposed measures.
The proposed targets have their origins in the Green Development Policy of Mongolia, which is an over-arching and comprehensive approach delivering low-carbon economic growth taking into account national circumstances in the context of its sustainable development. This ambitious strategy mainstreams both mitigation and adaptation in a way to reduce social and environmental vulnerability. Parliamentary approval of the most significant energy measures, and corresponding commitment to implement an important part of the mitigation actions with domestic means demonstrates the ambition of the Mongolian Government.
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CHAPTER 12. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION
12.1. Anchoring the mitigation contribution in legislation
Parties are free to determine how their INDC is embedded in national legislation. It is considered good practice for Parties to receive internal political approval for adoption of the INDC from the appropriate level of governance prior to submission to the UNFCCC, and for countries to embed the INDC in national strategy and/or policy after finalization of the Paris agreement. Parties are likely to do this in different ways: China embedded its pledge from Copenhagen in its Five Year Plan; South Korea and Indonesia have embedded their targets previously in a designated climate change policy; some other countries have embedded specific components of their targets in various different sector-specific policies, such as the energy policy. Embedding the INDC in national legislation in some form or another has the key advantage of reducing the risk of reversibility after government change. It also provides a strong signal and certainty to the market/investors as well as the donor community, who also consider this to be good practice.
For Mongolia’s mitigation contribution, it is a great strength that the proposed policies and measures have already been introduced as legislation and/or proposed in national development strategies or plans, including the following:
• Green development policy, 2014 (2014-2030)• National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC), 2011 (2011-2021) • State policy on energy, 2015 (2015-2030)• National agriculture development policy, 2010 (2010-2021) • State policy on forest, 2015 (2016-2030)• MDGs based comprehensive national development programme, 2008 (2008-
2021)• Law on renewable energy, 2015• Law on energy, 2015 • State policy on Industry, 2015 (2015-2030)
As such, the various policies and measures are well anchored in national strategy and the responsibilities for implementation are mostly already identified within each of the respective policy or strategy documents.
12.2. Obtaining international support
In order to successfully implement the mitigation contribution in the INDC, Mongolia will seek international funding and capacity to complement domestic allocations and efforts. For the additional measures listed outside of the main national contribution, new sources of support will need to be identified and engaged, in addition to the continuation of existing support streams which will be required to implement the main proposed national contribution.
In a first step to achieving this, it is anticipated that a detailed plan will be elaborated to articulate the specific needs of each proposed measure under the INDC contribution, and to communicate clearly the potential supportive role of the international community. As a preliminary indication, some specific measures that will be important to reach the proposed targets are described in Table 12.1, with estimates of investment needs. The cumulative investment needs of these measures for which costs could be identified is at least 3.5 billion USD. However, these preliminary indications are provided for transparency and initial planning purposes, and should be replaced by a more thorough analysis in the next steps. Such analysis should also articulate clearly the specific financing modalities: it is anticipated that the majority of the investment requirements will be met by the private sector, leveraged by public sector funds.
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Table 12.1. Policies and measures for implementation up to 2030
Stated contribution Specific measures Investment needs USD Source
Increase the share of renewable electricity capacity to 30% of total electricity generation capacity by 2030, from 7.62% in 2014.
Installation of 675MW capacity large hydro power facilities. 1,350 mln
LEAP analysis with costs based on average of IPCC data2
Installation of 354MW wind power facilities. 584 mln
Installation of 145MW solar PV power facilities. 573 mln
Reduce building heat loss by 40% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
Improved insulation of 300 existing panel apartment buildings in Ulaanbaatar.
90 mln
Technology Needs Assessment (TNA), 2013
Improved efficiency of coal fired heating plants and thermal power plants.
Improved efficiency of coal-fired power plants. 900 mln TNA, 2013
A large volume of finance for both climate change mitigation and adaptation is expected to become available through the Green Climate Fund (GCF). In this regard, Mongolia can already begin to communicate preliminary support needs to the GCF, and Mongolia could begin to undertake GCF-readiness activities so that it will be in a position to submit bankable support proposals to the GCF in 2016 and 2017.
Furthermore, the use of crediting mechanisms may be a potential means to finance and implement the proposed measures. A number of regional and international crediting mechanisms which may be attractive for Mongolia are under development, and discussions at the international level continue on the potential future global mechanisms, including the New Market Mechanism (NMM). More clarity on the likely trajectory of the international discussions in this regard will be likely following the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris, December 2015; Mongolia will then take stock of the options available from market mechanisms as part of its detailed implementation strategy.
12.3. Next steps for implementation
The INDC preparation process has built momentum and common understanding for climate change strategy and policy across broader governmental actors and non-governmental stakeholders. It is a key for the momentum of this multi-stakeholder and inter-ministerial process to be maintained following the COP21 in Paris. From early 2016 Mongolia should begin an inter-ministerial process for the development of a comprehensive plan for the implementation of the INDC. Activities for the development of this plan might include:
2 https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/SRREN_FD_SPM_final.pdf
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• More detailed analysis and development of each individual proposed policy and measure, including precise technical requirements, cost and impact analyses (including the analysis of potential non-GHG related benefits), development of potential financing models, and implementation plans.
• A detailed roadmap with a timeline for phased implementation and measurable milestones.
• Design and implementation of the framework and infrastructure required for effective MRV and progress review. In this regard, MRV infrastructure may hold major synergies with other non-climate related objectives and should be designed in parallel with other sector-specific processes.
• Plans should be devised for the sustainable earmarking of a proportion of the national budget for the continuation of national efforts to implement the activities.
• Proposals for support should be prepared and submitted to existing and new sources of climate and development finance.
A first step of the compilation of a comprehensive implementation strategy should be the identification of responsibilities. Experiences from Mongolia and other countries in the development of climate change strategies show that an inter-ministerial process, perhaps led by a high-level inter-ministerial steering committee, is a highly effective means of mainstreaming climate change policies within sectoral plans and ensuring the identification and exploitation of synergies where possible.
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CHAPTER 13. TRACKING AND MONITORING PROGRESS
13.1. Sectors and gases covered
In 2000, Mongolia has adopted the first National Action Plans on Climate Change and updated in 2010. Also, Mongolia has presented two National Communications with their respective greenhouse gas inventories and mitigation options to the UNFCCC. Mitigation options communicated in both National Communications covered energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors. Thus, Mongolia’s INDC aimed to also cover all of these sectors.
Mongolia’s INDC covers three main GHGs (as foreseen under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol): carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Generally, the base year was selected as 2010.
13.2. Accounting Methods for tracking the mitigation contribution
As described in Mongolia’s Second National Communication, the emissions inventory for Mongolia was compiled using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC 2006 Good Practice Guidance (GPG) and Global Warming Potential values from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The BAU baseline was defined according to the methodology given in Mongolia’s Second National Communication (see Chapter 8). Thus, these methods will be used for tracking the mitigation contribution.
13.3. Accounting method used for forest mitigation actions
Currently, the inventory of GHG emissions and sink of the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) is lacking because of data availability to comply with the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and IPCC Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF.
As such, Mongolia’s Inventory team will make all efforts to determine the data source and methodology to account GHG sink in forest sector during the preparation of ”Third National Communication”.
13.4. Institutional arrangements for INDC implementation (mitigation part)
The Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT) of Mongolia is the key ministry to develop, update and implement climate related policies. A simplified chart of Institutional arrangement for GHG mitigation analysis and implementation is shown in Figure 13.1.
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Government of MongoliaMinistry of energy
Ministry of industry
Ministry of food and acriculture
Ministry of road and transportation
Ministry of construction and urban development
Research entities
Ministry of mining
Individual consultants Estimation and analysis
Approval and Resolution for Implementation
Preparation for approval
Discussion and selection
Preparation for discussion
Preparation and approval
Implementation
Support and input
Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism
Climate Change Committee
Nature Conservation FundClimate Change Project
Implementation Unit
Figure 13.1. Simplified chart of Institutional arrangement for GHG mitigation analysis and implementation
The interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral National Climate Committee (NCC), now led by the MEGDT, coordinates and guides national activities and measures to adapt to climate change and mitigate GHG emissions. High-level officials such as Deputy Ministers, State Secretaries and Director-Generals of the main Departments of all related ministries, agencies and other key officials are members of the NCC. Therefore, the NCC is the main body to integrate implementation national as well as sectoral policies and measures specified in INDC. In addition, the government is working to raise public awareness on climate change and its impacts.
The Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO) has been established within the MEGDT to communicate with UNFCCC Secretariat and implement the commitments and duties under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, to manage and to integrate climate change activities at national level. The CCCO has been closed down according to the amendment (13th of November 2015) of the Law on Air. The Climate Change project implementation unit (CCPIU) has been established under the Nature Conservation Fund (NCF) in accordance with an Order No. A-118 of the Minister of Environment, Green Development and Tourism from 27th of February 2015.
Major entities involved in climate change and energy policy include the Ministry of Energy, CDM Bureau, the National Renewable Energy Centre, and the Clean Air Foundation. Ministry of Road and Transport, Ulaanbaatar Municipality, local transport authorities will look over transport sector. Ministry of Construction and Urban Development will be in charge of mitigation measures in construction and building sector. Other line ministries will be in charge of implementation and monitoring of their respective policies and measures.
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Mongolia is participating in the UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation). A National REDD+ Roadmap Taskforce in Mongolia was established in September 2011 and consists of 20 members representing different government, private sectors and civil society. The UN-REDD Programme will work with the Government of Mongolia to assess the institutional context and entry points for these instruments, and integrate them into national strategies for REDD+ and green development. The MEGDT coordinates UN-REDD+ activities and thus will also be responsible for mitigation in the forestry sector.
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