intelligent resource investing - kaiserbottomfish.com · intelligent resource investing geneva,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Intelligent Resource InvestingIntelligent Resource Investing
Geneva, Switzerland
June 10, 2009
Zurich, Switzerland
June 11, 2009
Presented by John Kaiser
Forces shaping the resource Forces shaping the resource
sector during the next decadesector during the next decade
www.KaiserBottomFish.comwww.KaiserBottomFish.comwww.KaiserBottomFish.comwww.KaiserBottomFish.com
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A Perfect Storm of Cyclical DownturnsA Perfect Storm of Cyclical Downturns
� History Cycle
� Economic Cycle
� Commodity Cycle
� Market Cycle
� Sectoral Cycle
� Story Speculation Cycle
� Life Cycle
� Seasonal Cycle
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?
Happy Days are here again?
Krugman’s Hockey Stick?
Great Depression Two?
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Catastrophic Collapse has created a once in a life Catastrophic Collapse has created a once in a life time bottomtime bottom--fishing window for the resource sectorfishing window for the resource sector
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Three Shaken AssumptionsThree Shaken Assumptions
� American Hegemony & the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency
� Mortgage Securitization as Wealth Creation
� Globalization & the virtue of the China Price
Three ImplicationsThree Implications
� A rising real price for gold as investment demand responds to currency volatility
� Fragmentation of the Global Economy as environmental protectionism leads to geographically constrained economic zones
� Strategic Logic eclipses Economic Logic in the valuation of raw material assets as Security of Supply concerns escalate
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Project for a New American CenturyProject for a New American Century
� Bush “elected” in 2000
� September 11 terror attack
� Neo-Cons push PNAC
� Permanent War on Terror
� Homeland Security
� Weapons of Mass Destruction
� My Way or the Highway
� Shock & Awe
� Intelligent Design
� Taliban surges in Pakistan
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“Eyes in the Sky”
“32 million surplus males”
Petro-Dollar Recycling?
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AmericaAmerica’’s Eyes in the Sky:s Eyes in the Sky:
Will a minefield of satellite Will a minefield of satellite
debris eventually poke debris eventually poke
them out?them out?
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GreenspanGreenspan’’s American Innovation Windfallss American Innovation Windfalls
� Productivity Boost created by the Internet Revolution
� Financial Stability boost created by Quantitative Finance
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The rise of the Financial The rise of the Financial QuantsQuants as the new as the new
Geniuses of Wall StreetGeniuses of Wall Street
� Derivative Explosion
� Slicing & Dicing Debt
� Re-assembling into structured products
� Unique creations marked to model
� Sold to managers of OPM
� Reliance on Bell Curve distributions
� Reliance on historical data sets
� “Ignorance” of circular feedback loops
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Mortgage Securitization:Creating a Global Real Estate
Bubble and a Consumption
Boom by dissolving the
traditional self-regulating
relationship between lender
and borrower
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Real Estate Bubble CollapseReal Estate Bubble Collapse
Oh Crap
Fannie Mae
I hope Obamawins!
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Another big real estate crunch coming!Another big real estate crunch coming!
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The China PriceThe China Price� Cheap Labor – urbanization of
rural China and the dismantlement
of state run enterprises
� No Health & Safety for Workers
� No environmental emission
controls
� No Unions to secure medical or
pension benefits
� US Dollar Peg: the devil’s bargain
of maintaining an undervalued
yuan by bankrolling the US trade
deficit through the accumulation of
US treasury debt
� Piracy and Counterfeiting
� FDI: foreign direct investment and
technology transfer
Made in China and Packed with Pride in America
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Super Cycle or Business Cycle?Super Cycle or Business Cycle?
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What will Americans do that is of What will Americans do that is of
value to the rest of the world?value to the rest of the world?
What will the Chinese do to keep What will the Chinese do to keep
their economy growing?their economy growing?
In a New World Order where military In a New World Order where military
power is impotent, onepower is impotent, one--way trade in way trade in
IOUs is no longer an option, and the IOUs is no longer an option, and the
China Price remains cheapest:China Price remains cheapest:
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Republicans orchestrate
Obama election victory
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Wealth & Power in the US Demographic FutureWealth & Power in the US Demographic Future
� Boomers born 1946-1964
� Will all be 65 & over by 2030
� Will be 20% of US population
� Minorities 18-64 will be 46% of population by 2030
� Retired boomers will control the majority of real estate & equity wealth
� Hispanics projected 1 in 3 by 2050
Beast of Burden
Voting Bloc
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A Matter of PerspectiveA Matter of Perspective
1 Billion OECD1 Billion OECD 3 Billion BRIC3 Billion BRIC
Is your standard of living shrinking or growing?Is your standard of living shrinking or growing?
Is your footprint growing or shrinking?Is your footprint growing or shrinking?
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ChinaChina’’s Solution: extending s Solution: extending
infrastructure into the hinterland infrastructure into the hinterland
to boost its domestic economy to boost its domestic economy
and reduce dependency on and reduce dependency on
exportsexports
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Footprint Consciousness & the Green EconomyFootprint Consciousness & the Green Economy
� Reduce
� Re-Use
� Repair
� Renewables
� Recycle
� Rethink
� Relearn
� Quality over quantity
� Durability
� Efficiency
� Net Giver
� Zero Summer
� Net Taker
Footprint Reduction Footprint Reduction
StrategiesStrategies
Footprint Transformation Footprint Transformation
StrategiesStrategies
Changing Me into UsChanging Me into Us
Uncharted Territory
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AmericaAmerica’’s Solution: Transformatives Solution: Transformative Infrastructure RenewalInfrastructure Renewal
American Society of Civil Engineersestimates $1.6 trillion needed over next 5 years just for infrastructure maintenance!
� Footprint Consciousness as a response to the end of debt fueled consumption
� Repatriation of manufacturing through green protectionism – carbon trading
� Geopolitical strategies geared toward long term balance of power shifts
� Indebting future generations by creating legacy rather than looting for the benefit of boomers
� R&D boom in materials science and process engineering
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EurAsia
NoSoMerica
AustralAsia
UpForGrabs
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Security of Supply for Critical Materials is becoming Security of Supply for Critical Materials is becoming
an issue for Europe, Japan and the United States as an issue for Europe, Japan and the United States as
China moves to secure its own needs.China moves to secure its own needs.
Source: EC Commission – The Raw Materials Initiative
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Source: The National Academy of Sciences
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China investing in China investing in
nonnon--Chinese rare Chinese rare earth projects as it earth projects as it
prepares for a prepares for a
future of electric future of electric
cars and windmill cars and windmill energy!energy!
Lynas CorpArafura Resources
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� electric cars and windmills – neodymium, dysprosium, terbium – not enough existing supply to justify large scale commercialization
� Metallurgy – cracking the minerals to get the metals out on a cost effective basis
� Significant investment in process R&D required
� Significant growth potential in developing downstream capacity
� $1-2 billion current market can expand to $10-20 billion in 10 years
Solving the Chicken & the Egg ProblemSolving the Chicken & the Egg Problem
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Is Strategic Logic trumping Is Strategic Logic trumping
Economic Logic?Economic Logic?
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30 years of new mine supply in 30 years of new mine supply in
response to a tenfold increase in the response to a tenfold increase in the
real price of gold, coupled with real price of gold, coupled with
systemic central bank liquidation, has systemic central bank liquidation, has
reached its limit just as ETF gold is reached its limit just as ETF gold is
emerging as a legitimate gold emerging as a legitimate gold
investment vehicle.investment vehicle.
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Major Producer Major Producer
Growth by Growth by
Acquisition & Acquisition &
DevelopmentDevelopment
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Intermediate Producer Growth by Internal Intermediate Producer Growth by Internal
Development of Existing DepositsDevelopment of Existing Deposits
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Intermediate Producer Strategy: Growth by Intermediate Producer Strategy: Growth by
Production Expansion of Existing MineProduction Expansion of Existing Mine
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Intermediate Producer Intermediate Producer Growth by Acquisition Growth by Acquisition
of Marginal Producers of Marginal Producers
to achieve the critical to achieve the critical
mass that makes the mass that makes the
stock an institutional stock an institutional favorite when gold is favorite when gold is
on the move.on the move.
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Junior Producer Junior Producer
Growth by Multiple Growth by Multiple
Small Scale Mine Small Scale Mine DevelopmentDevelopment
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NonNon--Producer Producer
Strategy: mines are Strategy: mines are
made, not found made, not found ––
rethinking the scale of rethinking the scale of a deposit.a deposit.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: wait for higher gold price to Producer Strategy: wait for higher gold price to
make existing ounces profitable while conducting make existing ounces profitable while conducting
brownfields exploration for new ouncesbrownfields exploration for new ounces
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: waiting for the courts Producer Strategy: waiting for the courts
to confirm title.to confirm title.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: waiting for the price Producer Strategy: waiting for the price
of gold to rise, increasing drill density to of gold to rise, increasing drill density to identify starter pit, and working on metallurgy.identify starter pit, and working on metallurgy.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: consolidating and exploring a Producer Strategy: consolidating and exploring a
new trend while pushing the flagship project to the new trend while pushing the flagship project to the
point where the major must backpoint where the major must back--in or drop out, and in or drop out, and
hoping gold does not go up too soon.hoping gold does not go up too soon.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: solving title issue and Producer Strategy: solving title issue and
overover--coming perception of geopolitical risk.coming perception of geopolitical risk.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: putting a small high Producer Strategy: putting a small high
grade deposit into production as a credibility grade deposit into production as a credibility building stepping stone for bigger projects.building stepping stone for bigger projects.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: resource expansion & Producer Strategy: resource expansion &
upgrading through infill and exploratory drilling upgrading through infill and exploratory drilling
while waiting for a higher gold price.while waiting for a higher gold price.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: farmout of gold potential to a Producer Strategy: farmout of gold potential to a
major while delineating 100% owned nonmajor while delineating 100% owned non--gold resource. gold resource.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: delineating a discovery to build Producer Strategy: delineating a discovery to build
ounces while preparing for small scale production.ounces while preparing for small scale production.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: optioning or acquiring nonProducer Strategy: optioning or acquiring non--
core projects from a larger company.core projects from a larger company.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: drilling for the source Producer Strategy: drilling for the source
of gold in till anomalies.of gold in till anomalies.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: Producer Strategy:
prospect generator prospect generator
farmout model.farmout model.
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NonNon--Producer Strategy: grassroots Producer Strategy: grassroots
exploration with a new target generation tool. exploration with a new target generation tool.
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