MA Security and Diplomacy

The importance of a constructivist view in data analysis: keeping up with times

Student: Oana Ria Nsudeanu GhineaTeacher: Valentin Filip

National School of Political and Administrative Studies2014INTRODUCTIONData analysis practice has enjoyed much development in the last two decades or so because of the relaxing of international relations with the end of the Cold War and thus the increased sharing of information to the academia environment allowing for the making of a theoretical framework of intelligence practice. With this the information liberated for study has met the theoretical approach of international relations, inevitably, the major field that gave birth to intelligence practice as we know it today. In this paper I wish to study briefly how the constructivist approach, the mainstream international relations theory, has changed the way data is being analyzed. In doing so I will use the Outside-In Thinking method to write my argument because the theory to be approached is only of secondary importance in data analysis as research in the matter suggests. Although the paper is not about a situation per s but about the theory that analyzes a situation the said method proves useful to frame the concepts being approached and offers indicators on how this theory must be handled. As any theory it can only be considered an option in the way to view a situation proposed but nonetheless important.

ABOUT DATA ANALYSIS SHORT DESCRIPTION AND HISTORYFirst of all in order to understand analysis we must understand the role of intelligence in states. Since the official beginning of international relations with the Peace of Westphalia[footnoteRef:1] there has been an increased need of knowledge about the intentions of neighbouring countries and with the passing of time and the development of international relations to a global level, even more. Intelligence has successfully carried out this mission but not always in the right manner because of faulty data analysis and the lack of a framework for training analysts.[footnoteRef:2] With the creating of a framework for analysis came greater accuracy in suggestions for possible outcomes. The four stages of analysis have been established at requirements, collection, analysis and dissemination, with analysis being the most important step because of tying together of collected data. [footnoteRef:3] [1: Barry Buzan, From International to World Society?, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004, p. 46] [2: Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence. From Secrets to Policy., CQ Press, Washington, 2003, IInd edition, pp.2-9] [3: Michael Herman, Intelligence Power in Peace and War, University of Cambridge Press, UK, 1996, pp.100-101]

Because intelligence is used to inform governments about how to shape policies according to the international arena status it bears a great responsibility and thus must be short, concise, clear and well argued. The final analyzed data that is presented to the consumer of intelligence is an aid to policy making and requires that it be considered from a political standpoint by the receiver. [footnoteRef:4] [4: Richard K. Betts, Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable, in Loch K. Johnson, James J. Wirtz, Strategic Intelligence: Windows Into a Secret World, Roxbury Publishing Company, LA, California, 2004, p.97]

Error-making in analyzing data is common because of the enormous information that has to be passed through the process mentioned above and because of biases such as a particular mind-set which can dismiss possibilities, or the unlikeliness of a certain scenario occurring, or even politicians tending to disregard data received.With technological developments after World War I and II, the Cold War until the present day the sources of intelligence acquiring multiplied, SIGINT being added to HUMINT and OSINT. SIGINT now makes up a great part of data that is collected. Because of this change though data analysis has become even more hard to decipher because of the massive amount the media, communications, satellite imagery, a.s.o., produce. [footnoteRef:5] [5: Mark M. Lowenthal, op.cit. p. 63-70]

Most analysis methods use key factors and opposing or plain different hypothesis to determine the most probable outcome or confirm the winning hypothesis, such as Key Assumptions Check, Indicators or Signposts of Change, Devils Advocacy, What If analysis, assisted by Brainstorming technique, Outside-In Thinking ecc. All of these methods take into account any detail or piece of information which might prove useful for the situation at hand, reporting to a set of rules or assumptions derived from that very situation, from other cases used as comparison and from statistics proving probability.[footnoteRef:6] Solutions derived from these methods for the final prediction are prone to being faulty because of the risk of politicization of the matter and/or errors in policy making. Healthy communication between intelligence services and the policy makers reduce this risk.[footnoteRef:7] [6: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf, accessed 22.06.2014 h15.32] [7: Richard K. Betts, op cit. p. 98]

ABOUT CONSTRUCTIVISMConstructivism is now the mainstream theory that affects the understanding of international relations. It is a response to realism and neo-realism, the two closely linked theories that have ruled the view on international relations throughout the whole of the period between World War I up to the Cold War. If the basic principle of realism and neo-realism is that states live in anarchy, participating in relations with other states only to pursue their own selfish interests.[footnoteRef:8] This definition manages to explain relations only between states since they are the main actors here, but constructivism on the other hand manages to shed some light on new developments in the international arena to which the neo-realist theory cannot provide explanations and that is the apparition of non-state actors. Constructivism basically states that power and international relations are socially constructed in that the international relations and shifts in power are built by interaction and dynamics between actors. This theory manages to comprise many new elements that have formed due to the phenomenon of globalization such as the emergence of non-state actors (NGOs, terrorist groups, international institutions, ecc.), the shifting from a purely military view of security to a much broader one, the changing of the ways in which wars are fought. [footnoteRef:9] [8: Kenneth Waltz, Teoria Politicii Internationale, trad. Nicoleta Mihailescu, Editura Polirom, Bucureti, 2006, p.262] [9: Alexander Wendt, Anarchy is what states make of it: The Social Construct of Power Politics, article in International Organization, MIT Press, USA, 1992, pp. 396-397]

The major limitations of neo-realism, according to Alexander Wendt, one of the most pertinent voices of social constructivism, is that by attributing states inflexible characteristics the type of relations that states will have cannot be foreseen[footnoteRef:10] thus increasing the notion commonly known as the security dilemma which states that increasing security by one party can be misinterpreted by another as an action of preparing for conflict which stimulates the same response from others leading eventually to an arms race.[footnoteRef:11] [10: Idem.] [11: John Herz, Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma, article in World Politics, vol.2, nr.2, 1950, Cambridge University Press, UK, pp. 157-159]

LINKING THE CONCEPTS Outside-In ThinkingThe method of outside-in thinking is often used to identify external factor over which there is not much control but that can still influence an outcome and that should be considered for a more accurate approach of a situation. Further on I will apply the necessary steps in analyzing the information above.The main topic is, as stated above, the importance of a constructivist view on data analysis.The major key forces that have an impact on the topic: data analysis; evolution of methods of data analysis; errors in data analysis (specifically the mind-set error); theories of international relations; theory of constructivism in particular (main affirmation); emergence of new actors in international relations;Some influence could be exerted on data analysis by: emergence of new actors in international relations;How do these elements affect data analysis: evolution of methods of data analysis;It has been argued by some authors that a shift in paradigm in the practice of politics and policy can lead to errors being made that can lead to shifting paradigms in intelligence theory. Paradigm crises on an international relations and political level demand for new theories to explain phenomena occurring so rapidly and to provide a basis for solutions to be used to adapt to changes. If governments and academia members change thus the way they perceive the world and each other then the ripples affect all domains including data analysis.[footnoteRef:12] [12: David T. Moore, Sensemaking. A Structure for an Intelligence Revolution, NDIC, Washington, 2011, pp.47-50]

errors in data analysis (specifically the mind-set error);The moment analysts remain embedded in the old mind-set errors of analysis occur. Understanding the principles by which the studied environment functions leads to more accurate collecting and from there further avoiding of errors.[footnoteRef:13] [13: Idem.]

theory of constructivism in particular (main affirmation);In particular constructivism, by embodying in its definitions the challenges stated above (non-state actors, NGOs, etc), offers a theoretical solution on how to manage change in this particular case by starting from the concept that what is happening is socially constructed thus influencing the way in which mind-sets form. emergence of new actors in international relations;Until the 21st century analysts and states alike have never been confronted with other actors than themselves but the changing social structures, the crisis that some states faced because of different reasons, created a unique situation in which some power shifted from states to non-state actors, from NGOs that managed difficulties in poor states or conflict zones or policies, to terrorist groups seeking what they believed was justice. With the state in the situation of sharing power, basically, analysts had to adapt to include the new elements into statistics and analysis.

CONCLUSIONThe constructivist theory gives more flexibility and understanding to changes that have shaped the 21st century from its beginning. By this way the analysis of data changes its rules also, from old patterns with state-to-state relations to new patterns which include a multitude of actors which influence subtly outcomes. By changing the definition of power also the target of data analysis changes because of new elements gaining greater significance in collecting raw data. The changes brought by constructivism do not completely change structures but refresh and sync ways of analysis.

BIBLIOGRAPHYBooks and articles BETTS, Richard K. ,Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable, in Loch K. Johnson, James J. Wirtz, Strategic Intelligence: Windows Into a Secret World, Roxbury Publishing Company, LA, California, 2004 BUZAN, Barry, From International to World Society?, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004 HERMAN, Michael, Intelligence Power in Peace and War, University of Cambridge Press, UK, 1996 HERZ, John, Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma, article in World Politics, vol.2, nr.2, 1950, Cambridge University Press, UK LOWENTHAL, Mark M., Intelligence. From Secrets to Policy., CQ Press, Washington, 2003, IInd edition MOORE, David T. ,Sensemaking. A Structure for an Intelligence Revolution, NDIC, Washington, 2011 WALTZ, Kenneth, Teoria Politicii Internationale, trad. Nicoleta Mihailescu, Editura Polirom, Bucureti, 2006, p.262 WENDT, Alexander, Anarchy is what states make of it: The Social Construct of Power Politics, article in International Organization, MIT Press, USA, 1992

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