intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de grande-bretagne
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par Phil Lawton, Grid Operations 2020, National Grid (UK)TRANSCRIPT
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Integrating Renewable Energy Into the GB System
Phil Lawton, Future System Operation Manager
6th September 2013
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We join everything up
Generators at one end – consumers at the other
Directly or indirectly connecting to our networks
At the centre of the industry
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National Grid
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The changing energy landscape
Decarbonise
electricity
80% CO2 reduction by
2050
Sustainability
Affordability
Security of
supply
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UK Future Energy Scenarios
Scenarios:
• Gone Green
• Slow Progression
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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
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100
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700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h/Y
r
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
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100
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2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h/Y
r
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
Adoption matches
available energy
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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
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2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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h/Y
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Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
Deployment too fast: High
Carbon Generation required
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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h/Y
r
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
Deployment too Slow: Low
Carbon Generation unused
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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h/Y
r
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
How big does the
network need to be?
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Role of the Network
Transmission Operator:
Adequate capacity
System Operator:
Balancing the Network
Overall Balance
Locational Balance
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Gas: The Challenges
2000 20102013 & beyond…
Changing Gas
Flows
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Gas: The Challenges
2000 20102013 & beyond…
Growing interaction:
Electricity to Gas
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Electricity: The Challenges
Increasing variable generation
and need for gas back-up
Increasing interconnection
Increasing distributed generation
– appears as greater demand
fluctuation
New demand patterns e.g. electric
vehicle charging and space
heating – large and volatile
So, need enhanced capabilities
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An orderly transition to 2020/30:
Reducing uncertainty and increasing flexibility
Rules
Commercial
Tools
New Assets
Information Flows
Work Areas
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0
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0 2 4 6 8
10
12
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Time
GW
Residual Demand
Uncertain Wind
Reliable Wind
Fixed Generation
Challenge 1: Obtaining additional Reserve
Reserve
Required
Where do we get the reserve to cover the uncertainty?
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0
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0 3 6 9
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Time
GW
"Surplus" Wind
Residual Demand
Wind
Fixed Generation
Challenge 2: Starting to decarbonise heat/transport
Available Low
Carbon Energy
Need active demand to “harvest” available energy
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Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat
Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012
0
50
100
150
200
1 101 201 301
Day
Avera
ge L
oad
GW
Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load
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Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat
Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012
0
50
100
150
200
1 101 201 301
Day
Avera
ge L
oad
GW
Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load
Attempting to supply all heat from
electricity will:
• Require huge investment in
generation, networks and heat pumps
•Much of which will operate with a very
low load factor
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Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat
Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012
0
50
100
150
200
1 101 201 301
Day
Avera
ge L
oad
GW
Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load
Meet lower demands
using low carbon
electricity & heat pumps
Meet peak demands by gas
using existing network
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Current work areas include:
Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate
System modelling to test proposals
Improved forecasting of renewable output
Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide
Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system
Demand Side Response
Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy
Involved in drafting of European Codes
Engaging with DNOs on voltage control
Future interaction between gas and electricity systems
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Current work areas include:
Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate
System modelling to test proposals
Improved forecasting of renewable output
Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide
Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system
Demand Side Response
Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy
Involved in drafting of European Codes
Engaging with DNOs on voltage control
Future interaction between gas and electricity systems
1. Mean 24 Hour Ahead Forecast Performance Over The Last 6 Months
Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Last Week
Total Capacity 5,560 5,723 5,902 5,934 6,090 6,090 6,090
Mean Absolute Error 333 357 384 314 229 307 369
as % of Capacity 5.99% 6.23% 6.50% 5.30% 3.75% 5.05% 6.06%
Mean Error 246 211 286 279 127 183 215
as % of Capacity 4.43% 3.69% 4.85% 4.71% 2.08% 3.00% 3.52%
Maximum Error 1,295 1,222 1,508 2,069 1,075 1,562 845
as % of Capacity 23.30% 21.35% 25.56% 34.87% 17.66% 25.65% 13.87%
RMS Error 404 432 493 431 292 398 432
as % of Capacity 7.27% 7.55% 8.35% 7.26% 4.79% 6.53% 7.09%
2. Last Week's 24 Hour Ahead Wind Power Forecast Against Actual
3. The Last 6 Months Mean Absolute Error Plotted Against Forecast Hours Ahead
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
22
-AP
R-
20
13
23
-AP
R-
20
13
24
-AP
R-
20
13
25
-AP
R-
20
13
26
-AP
R-
20
13
27
-AP
R-
20
13
28
-AP
R-
20
13
MW
20% Confidence Interval 40% Confidence Interval 60% Confidence Interval
80% Confidence Interval Mean Forecast Total Metered
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
22
-AP
R-2
01
3
23
-AP
R-2
01
3
24
-AP
R-2
01
3
25
-AP
R-2
01
3
26
-AP
R-2
01
3
27
-AP
R-2
01
3
28
-AP
R-2
01
3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240Hours Ahead
Mean A
bsolu
te E
rror
as %
of
Capacity
Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13
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Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate
System modelling to test proposals
Improved forecasting of renewable output
Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide
Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system
Demand Side Response
Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy
Involved in drafting of European Codes
Engaging with DNOs on voltage control
Future interaction between gas and electricity systems
Current work areas include:
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We are committed to working with
other stakeholders to deliver solutions
Ofgem DECC
ENTSO GB TOs
Gen Cos
Manufacturers
Suppliers
Distributors
Customer
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Questions and Discussion