integrating extreme precipitation into infrastructure design · amec foster wheeler, ... ontario,...
TRANSCRIPT
April 13 2016
Peter Nimmrichter, M.Eng., P.Eng.
Associate and Climate Change Specialist, Water Resources
Amec Foster Wheeler, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Integrating Extreme Precipitation
into Infrastructure Design
Presentation Overview
1. What data do we use
2. How do we use the data
3. What are the challenges?
2 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
3 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What data do we use …
What data we useToday – Return Period Rainfall / IDF
4 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What data we useToday – Recorded Rainfall Events
5 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
6 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What data we useToday – Radar
7 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What data we useFuture – Projected Daily Data
8 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What data we useFuture – Projected IDF
μ
x
x’
μ’
Linear
model
9 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What data we useFuture – Approved for use data
10 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What data we useCurrent/Future – Probable Maximum Precipitation
1961
1982
2006
11 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How do we use
the data …
12 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataCoronation Blvd, Cambridge Culvert Study
http://conf.tac-atc.ca/english/resourcecentre/readingroom/conference/conf2009/pdf/scheckenberger.pdf
2005/2006
2006-2008
13 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataWelland Ontario, CCVA (2010-2012)
PIEVC
14 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataFlood Risk Map Preparation for Three Watercourses in Newfoundland
15 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataTottenham Airfield
Tottenham Airfield
16 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataTottenham Airfield
Return
Period
24 Hour Rainfall Totals (mm)
2014 Environment Canada IDF Data
Wilcox Lake Oak Ridges Orangeville MOE Maple Egbert CS
2 year 45.9 49.3 39.7 44.5 40.9
5 year 66.0 67.5 50.9 54.8 51.8
10 year 79.4 79.6 58.2 61.5 58.9
25 year 96.2 94.9 67.6 70.1 68.0
50 year 108.7 106.2 74.5 76.5 74.7
100 year 121.1 117.5 81.4 82.8 81.4
Period of
Record
(years)
10 17 10 12 17
Return
Period
24 Hour Rainfall Totals (mm)
2007 Environment Canada IDF Data
Wilcox Lake Oak Ridges Orangeville MOE Maple Egbert CS
2 year 45.9 49.3 n/a 44.5 42.7
5 year 66.0 67.5 n/a 54.8 52.8
10 year 79.4 79.6 n/a 61.5 59.5
25 year 96.2 94.9 n/a 70.1 68.0
50 year 108.7 106.2 n/a 76.5 74.2
100 year 121.1 117.5 n/a 82.8 80.4
Period of
Record
(years)
10 17 n/a 12 13
Indicates no change between 2007 and 2014 IDF data
17 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataTottenham Airfield
Duration
(min)
Design Rainfall Depth (mm) by Return Period
2 year 5 year 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year
RCP 2.6
5 9.9 12.7 14.6 16.9 18.6 20.4
10 15.3 20.9 24.7 29.2 32.7 36.2
15 19.4 26.8 31.9 38.0 42.7 47.4
30 24.9 35.2 42.3 50.7 56.9 63.0
60 29.4 41.6 50.0 60.0 67.4 74.7
120 32.8 45.0 53.2 62.8 70.2 77.7
360 43.9 61.2 73.1 87.2 98.0 109.0
720 49.3 67.0 78.9 92.9 103.7 114.7
1440 58.0 79.3 93.6 110.6 123.6 136.8
RCP 4.5
5 10.2 13.0 15.0 17.1 18.9 20.6
10 15.9 21.5 25.4 29.6 33.1 36.6
15 19.9 27.5 32.8 38.5 43.2 47.9
30 25.7 36.2 43.4 51.3 57.9 64.4
60 30.3 42.8 51.3 60.8 68.5 76.3
120 34.1 46.2 54.5 63.6 71.1 78.6
360 45.2 62.9 75.0 88.3 99.4 110.3
720 51.1 68.7 80.8 94.0 105.0 115.9
1440 60.2 81.4 96.0 111.9 125.2 138.3
RCP 8.5
5 10.6 13.4 15.2 17.5 19.2 20.9
10 16.7 22.2 25.8 30.4 33.7 37.1
15 21.1 28.5 33.4 39.6 44.1 48.6
30 27.4 37.6 44.3 52.9 59.1 65.3
60 32.2 44.4 52.4 62.6 70.0 77.4
120 36.0 47.8 55.5 65.4 72.5 79.7
360 48.0 65.2 76.5 91.0 101.4 111.9
720 53.9 71.0 82.3 96.7 107.0 117.5
1440 63.5 84.2 97.8 115.1 127.6 140.2
Duration
(min)
Design Rainfall Depth (mm) by Return Period
2 year 5 year 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year
10th Percentile
5 4.3 6.9 8.7 10.9 12.6 14.3
10 6.8 11.0 13.8 17.4 20.0 22.6
15 8.6 13.9 17.4 21.9 25.2 28.4
30 12.2 19.6 24.4 30.4 34.9 39.3
60 16.6 26.0 32.1 39.7 45.3 50.8
120 22.0 33.3 40.6 49.8 56.5 63.1
360 33.4 47.5 56.6 68.2 76.7 85.1
720 43.1 58.7 69.0 82.0 91.8 101.4
1440 55.4 72.4 83.7 98.3 109.2 120.2
50th Percentile
5 5.8 9.3 11.7 14.7 16.9 19.0
10 9.2 14.9 18.7 23.5 27.0 30.4
15 11.7 18.9 23.7 29.7 34.1 38.4
30 16.6 26.7 33.3 41.6 47.7 53.8
60 22.3 35.5 44.0 54.7 62.6 70.5
120 29.1 45.4 55.9 69.2 79.0 88.7
360 42.8 63.9 77.7 94.9 107.4 119.7
720 53.4 77.5 93.2 112.9 127.3 141.7
1440 65.3 93.1 111.3 133.7 150.3 166.7
90th Percentile
5 6.9 11.1 13.8 17.3 19.9 22.5
10 11.1 17.6 21.9 27.4 31.5 35.6
15 14.1 22.2 27.6 34.4 39.5 44.5
30 19.7 30.9 38.2 47.5 54.3 61.2
60 26.1 40.3 49.6 61.4 70.1 78.8
120 33.2 50.5 61.8 76.2 86.8 97.4
360 46.5 69.2 84.1 103.1 117.2 131.2
720 57.2 83.6 101.2 123.6 140.3 156.8
1440 70.5 100.9 121.4 147.6 167.2 186.5
IDFCC Tool Ontario CCDP Tool (A1B)
18 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataTottenham Airfield
Duration
(min)
Design Rainfall Depth (mm) by Return Period2
2 year 5 year 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year
5 7.9 10.4 12.5 14.6 16.3 17.9
10 13.2 16.7 19.2 21.7 24.2 26.7
15 15.5 20.5 23.8 27.5 31.3 33.8
30 20.0 26.5 31.0 36.5 40.5 44.5
60 25.0 34.0 41.0 49.0 55.0 61.0
120 28.0 38.0 46.0 54.0 60.0 66.0
360 36.6 50.4 60.0 72.0 78.0 90.0
720 39.6 55.2 66.0 79.2 88.8 98.4
1440 50.4 64.8 74.4 86.4 96.0 105.6
Notes:
1. The IDF curve information is in accordance with Design Chart 1.01(e): District IDF Curves, District 5 -
Owen Sound: for Basins East of Collingwood; Ontario Ministry of Transportation, “MTO Drainage
Management Manual 1997”
2. From Design Chart 1.01(e): District IDF Curves, District 5 - Owen Sound: for Basins East of Collingwood;
Ontario Ministry of Transportation, “MTO Drainage Management Manual 1997”
Town of New Tecumseth
19 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataConfidential Client
Development of short timestep projected rainfall data to support continuous modelling to investigate future LID performance
20 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
How we use the dataSummary
Past and Current data:
Near term trend analysis
Infrastructure design
Development of extreme event hyetographs
Development of future rainfall statistics
Future data:
Sensitivity analysis or stress testing of infrastructure design
Vulnerability analysis
Supports guideline development
21 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What are the
challenges…
What are the challenges
Existing Data
1. Data accessibility
2. Common platform / GIS geodatabase of rainfall
measurements
3. Standard measurement protocol
4. More stations and more stations
5. Research into inter-station interpolation methods
6. More frequent updating of IDF data
22 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
What are the challenges
Projected Data
1. Understanding different methods / tools
2. Better interoperability amongst tools
3. Understanding models best suited to circumstance
or location
4. Need research into potential impacts of climate
change on PMP
23 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
24 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.
"It is often said there are two types of
forecasts ... lucky or wrong!!!!"
in "Control" magazine published by
the Institute of Operations Management
What are the challenges
This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use them …
but we need to understand the issues
attributed to Rear Admiral Grace Hopper
25
Thank you!
Peter Nimmrichter
Associate and Climate Change Specialist, Water Resources
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
1-905-335-2353
26 © Amec Foster Wheeler 2016.