AN INTEGRATED SUSTAINABLE TOURISM FOR SMALL ISLANDS*

Jerorne L. McEl roy Professor of Economics Saint Mary's College Notre Dame, IN 46556

and

Klaus de A1 buquerque Professor of Sociology College of Charleston Char1 eston, SC 29424

Introduction

Small t ropical i s lands worldwide can be divided roughly in to two groups according t o the timing and in tens i ty of t h e i r contact with the outside world. The f i r s t group primarily in the Paci f ic possesses "long indigenous t r ad i t i ons of se l f -suff ic iency and cu l tu re t h a t a r e well adapted t o the special is land environment" (Hein, 1990:60), and t ha t predate metropolitan contact. In con t ras t , the second group primarily in the Caribbean acquired t h e i r populations in recent centur ies precisely as the r e s u l t of European colonization and as an extens ion of the global network of center-periphery trade. This outward or ien- t a t ion l ~ a s indel ib ly stamped the his tory of these l a t t e r is lands characterized by monocul tura l export dependence, boom-bust economic cycl es , para1 1 el demo- graphic f luc tua t ions , a l t e rna t ing environmental degradation and neqlect , per- s i s t en t migration, and periodic natural d i s a s t e r s (McEl roy and others , 1990).

The f i r s t generation of is land research has focused on defininq in- su la r s t ruc tu re and behavior as a separate and legit inlate f i e l d of enq~i i ry (Demas, 1965; Benedict, 1967; Bertram Matters, 1984; Dommen and Hein, 1985; Shand, 1980; Selwyn, 1975; Jalan, 1982; Brookfield, 1990). These wr i t e r s , using conventional narrow disc ipl inary models, have emphasized short-run socio-economic t r a i t s t o the exclusion of long-run processes. The challenge of sustainabie development, however, with i t s emphasis on renewable resource uses and a legacy of intcrqener- a t ional economic and cul tura l equity (Bel ler , 1990), h2s spawned a new l i t c ra tu re t r e a t i ng islands as t o t a l and integrated systems in a framework especia l ly tiesigned t o capture the dynamics of long-run change (Brookfield, 1980; Towle, 1985; Giavcll i and Rossi , 1990; Vernicos, 1990).

These systems models envision island socie ty as a complex of linked subsystems--economic, demographic, po l i t i c a l and environmental--whose in teract ion deterniines the s t ab i l i t y of the overall syste~iis in the context of external shocks and internal adjustments. Such formulations tend t o be highly descr ip t ive ar~d aggregative and t o focus on the inherent i n s t a b i l i t y of the components: the vulner- abi 1 i t y of the open economy because of i t s excessive special iza t ion; the f rag i 1 i t y of the ecosystem because of i t s endernisl?i, lack of species d ivers i ty and i so la t ion ; the f l u i d i t y of the population because of i t s propetlsity t o migrate; and the im- potence of policy because of po l i t i c a l dependence. These macro-type const ructs

*Paper prepared fo r the XVI Annual Conference, Caribbean Studies Association, Ilavana, Cuba, May 21-24, j991.

a l s o seek t o i d e n t i f y t h e conf luence o f subsystem f r a g i l i t i e s t h a t t oge the r produce fundamental change and a l t e r t h e cha rac te r o f i n s u l a r soc ie t y .

The Postwar Car i bbean

Dur ing t he postwar era, t h e r e have been fundamental changes i n t h e f o u r ma jo r components o f smal l Caribbean i s l a n d systems. Since 1960 t e n of t h e 23 smal l e s t i s l a n d s ( l e s s than 500,000 p o p u l a t i o n ) have become p o l i t i c a l l y inde- pendent w h i l e many o t h e r t e r r i t o r i e s have achieved s i g n i f i c a n t i n t e r n a l autonomy (see Table 1). Second, major r e s t r u c t u r i n g has taken p lace away from t r a d i t i o n a l crops toward more income-e las t i c tour ism, and t o a l e s s e r ex ten t , l i g h t i n d u s t r i a l expor ts . Accord ing t o C u r t i n (1987), t ou r i sm has become t h e l e a d sec to r i n t h e reg ion . Th i rd , these tourism-dependent m ic ros ta tes a r e undergoing sudden demo- g raph ic expansion through a m i g r a t i o n t r a n s i t i o n whereby former l a b o r expor te rs become l a b o r impo r te r s i n response t o t h e l a b o r - i n t e n s i v e demands o f tour ism, c o n s t r u c t i o n , and manufactur ing (McElroy and deAl buquerque, 1988).

Four th , t h e r i s i n g popu la t i on d e n s i t i e s and t h e r a p i d growth o f mass tour i sm- -h igh volume t r a f f i c e f rom l a r g e habor and a i r p o r t f a c i l i t i e s t o l a r g e - sca le h o t e l s concen t ra ted a long de l i c a t e coast1 ines--have caused i r r e v e r s i b l e a l t e r a t i o n s i n many f r a g i l e i s l a n d ecosystems. There i s mount ing evidence of beach e ros ion , r e e f d e s t r u c t u r i o n , inshore p o l l u t i o n , and t h e l o s s of scenic amen i t ies (Tow1 e, 1985; Jackson, 1986; Edwards, 1987; McElroy and o the rs ,1990a). These env i ronemnta l s p i l l o v e r s p l us assoc ia ted d e c l i n e s i n f i s h and farm a c t i v i t y and t h e widespread l o s s o f renewable resource uses and management s k i 1 1 s (Imamura, 1988) have r a i s e d t h e c e n t r a l ques t ion whether Caribbean t o u r i s m i s s u s t a i nab1 e (Holder , 1988), o r j u s t t h e newest chap te r i n t h e boom-bust c y c l e s o f t h e pas t (McKee and T i sdel 1 , 1990). .

Scope

Tour ism's long- te rm v i a b i l i t y forms t h e c o r e o f t h e d i scuss ion t o f o l l o w . The pe rspec t i ve i s a p a r t i a l systems a n a l y s i s f ocus ing l o o s e l y on t he t ou r i sm-ag r i cu l t u ra l - env i r onmen ta l l i n kages d u r i n g postwar modern izat ion. Data f o r d e t a i l i n g t h e processes o f change a r e taken f rom 23 smal l Caribbean i s l a n d s a t va r i ous s tages o f t ou r i sm development. The t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e high-volume mass- market s t y l e o f t ou r i sm c u r r e n t l y i n p r a c t i c e i n t h e r e g i o n i s nonsus ta inab le be- cause i t i n e v i t a b l y damages t h e amenity base f r om which i t de r i ves , and marg ina l - i z e s domest ic a g r i c u l t u r e / f i s h i n g i n t h e process. The paper concludes w i t h a s e t of i n t e g r a t i v e po l i c i e s f o r r e v e r s i n g these t r ends and c r e a t i n g an ecotour ism s t y l e more compat ib le w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l renewable resource uses.

D e s t i n a t i o n L i f e -Cvc le Model

The 23 i s l a n d s comprise t h r e e geographic groupings: (1) t h e four Nor thern I s l a n d s o f Bahamas, Bermuda, Caymans and Turks and Caicos; ( 2 ) a l l 16 Leeward and Windward I s l a n d s except T r i n i dad ; and (3 ) t h e t h r e e Dutch ABC I s l ands o f f t h e Venezuelan coast--Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. The e a r l y exper iences of t o u r i s m i n Bahamas, Bermuda, USVI and Barbados i n v o l v e d l ong -s tay ing a f f l u e n t v i s i t o r s who came f o r t he d u r a t i o n o f t h e w i n t e r season. Wi th t h e c l o s u r e o f Cuba t o US v i s i t o r s i n 1960, t h e advent o f j e t t r a v e l and t h e i n f l o w of f o r e i g n investment i n h o t e l s and a id - f inanced i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , Caribbean t ou r i sm was r e - o r i e n t e d toward t h e mass market and new d e s t i n a t i o n s were penet ra ted (Seward and Spinrad, 1982). Tourism d i f f u s e d outwards f rom t r a d i t i o n a l t o newer nearby areas : from Bahamas t o Caymans, t h e USVI t o t h e BVI, and more r e c e n t l y St. Maarten t o

Anguilla and S t . Kitts-Nevis. Since 1970 a l l the smaller i s lands have been penetrated including the l a rge r and more d ivers i f i ed Windwards: Dominica, Gre- nada, St . Lucia and St . Vincent.

The patterns of tourism indicators analysed below suggest t h a t the 23 des t inat ions form three r e l a t i ve ly d i s t i n c t groups t h a t generally conform to But le r ' s (1980) des t inat ion l i f e -cyc le model. This theory suggests t ha t des t ina- t ions pass through a predictable s e r i e s of stages from discovery t o decline along an S-shaped growth curve. The simp1 e version exempl i f ied here postula tes only three c l e a r l y i den t i f i ab l e stages: (1) emergence o r i n i t i a l discovery, ( 2 ) f o l - lowed by the t r an s i t i on t o rapid expansion and in ternat ional recognit ion, and (3 ) culminating in maturity defined by v i s i t o r sa tura t ion and often environmental ae- t e r i o r a t i on .

Table 1 shows the importance of the mature Stage I11 des t inat ions . Seven of the 23 is lands accounted f o r over two-thirds of a l l v i s i t o r spending in 1989: Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, Curacao, St . Maarten, and USVI. The same is lands accounted fo r roughly 38,000 or 60 percent of a l l hotel rooms in the island sample (see Table 2 ) . They a l so tended t o have r a t i o s of t o u r i s t spending t o G D P above 60 percent confirming t h e i r tourism in tens i ty . In con t ras t , the more d ivers i f i ed and l a rger economies had r a t i o s l e s s than 40 percent. The mature des t inat ions a r e a l so the most a f f l uen t , generally averaging between US$7,000 and US$10,000 in per capi ta G D P . With some exceptions, the next group of rapidly growing des t inat ions averaged between $3,000 and $5,000, whi 1 e the newest and l e a s t tourist-dependent islands--Dominica, Montserrat, Saba, St . Eustat ius and St . Vincent--generally range l e s s than $3,000.

The demographic and other indicators in Table 2 tend t o d i s t r i b u t e the is lands in to the same three loose groupings according t o tourism's h i s to r ica l evolution across the region. Most of the older more mature des t inat ions have ex- perienced re la t ive2y slow annual population growth corresponding t o t h e i r advanced development. Aruba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Barbados and USVI have a l l grown l e s s than o l e percent between 1984-88. Likewise, the small emerging islands have remained v i r t u a l l y a t a s t a n d s t i l l . On the other hand, population growth in the rapidly expanding areas has averaged about two percent per year.

The mature is lands a l so exh ib i t the highest l eve l s of population density. The number of persons per square kilometer ranges above 300 f o r these des t ina t ions while dens i t i e s a r e roughly 100 o r fewer persons f o r the emerging des t ina t ions . The f igures f o r the growth des t inat ions vary but generally f a l l between the other two groups. The mature islands a r e c l e a r l y the dominant tour- ism leaders . They accounted f o r 4.0 mil l ion o r 71 percent of the t o t a l 5.6 mi l l ion hote ls v i s i t o r s t o the 23 des t inat ions in 1989. As a group they averaged over half mi l l ion stayovers per is land. The smallest and/or newest areas had 50,000 stayovers o r l e s s while the Stage I1 is lands l i k e Antigua, Caymans, Guade- loupe and Martinique, St . Ki t t s and Sto. Lucia averaged between 100,000 and 300,000 overnighters. The analys is of c ru i se passenger data reveals the same general pat tern . In 1989 the seven mature des t inat ions accounted f o r 3.8 mil l ion or 70 percent of t o t a l excurs ionis ts t o the 23 is lands . The f i ve emerging islands accounted f o r only 81,000 or l e s s than three percent of a l l c ru i se v i s i t o r s .

According t o Table 3, these Stage I1 is lands a r e characterized by high v i s i t o r volume, high-density mass marketing and well-developed in f ras t ruc - ture a n d h o t e l p l a n t . The f i v e emerging Stage I i s lands a r e characterized by low-density long-staying t o u r i s t s who require l imited hotel capacity and in- f r a s t r uc tu r e . The l a rge s t group of 11 is lands i n the Stage I1 range--the four

TABLE 1. BASIC INDICATORS FOR SMALL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS (1989 or 1 atest year avail able)

Visitor GDP Spending Visitor Political

Population Land grea (IU. Si ($ U. S .. Spend i ng Status Is1 and(s) (000s) Km Mil .) Mii . ) GDP Affil iation2

Angui 11 a 7 Antigua/Barbuda 7 9 Aru ba 66 Bahamas 245 Barbados 254 Bermuda 59 Bona i re 10 British Virgin Is. 12 Cayman Is1 ands 2 6 Curacao 193 Dominica 81 Grenada 103 Guadel oupe 335 Martinique 330 Montserrat 12 Saba 1 St. Eustatius 1 St. Kitts/Nevis 45 St. Lucia 142 St. Maarten 2 8 St. Vincent/Gren. 113 Turks & Caicos 14 U.S. Virgin Is. 106

U K IN (1981) Dutch (IN 1995) IN (1972) IN (1966) U K UK Dutch IN (1978) IN (1974) French French UK Dutch Dutch IN (1983) IN ii979j Dutch IN (1979) Dutch IN (1979) UK US

SOURCE: 1988 and 1989 Caribbean Tourism Statistical Report (1990).

NOTE: ' All figures at current factor cost. Except for Aruba, figures for the Netherland Antilles - - Bonaire, Curacao, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten - - are author's estimates.

IN signifies and independent country.

TABLE 2. OTHER SELECTED INDICATORS FOR SMALL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS

Simp1 e Annual Per

Population Capita Popul atiqn Total Total No. Growth GDP Per Km Stayovers Crui se Hotel

(1984-88) (U.S. '89) (1988) (000s '89) (000s '89) Rooms

Anguilla 1.5 Ant igua/Barbuda 0.2 Aruba 0.0 Bahamas 0.9 Barbados 0.1 Bermuda 0.7 Bonai re 2.2 British Virgins 1 .O Caymans 6.9 Curacao 2.4 Dominica 2.4 Grenada 0.0 Guadel oupe 0.1 + Martinique 0.1 Montserrat 0.3 Saba 0.0 St. Eustatius 0.0 St. Ki tts/Nevi s 0.0 St. Lucia 4.6 St. Maarten 10.2 St. VincentiGren. 3.0 . Turks & Caicos 8.0 U.S. Virgins 0.0

SOURCES: 1. 1988 and 1989 Caribbean Tourism Statistical Report (1990). 2. J. Hopki ns (ed. ) , Latin American and Caribbean Contem~orarv Record,

Vol. IV 1984-85 (1986).

NOTE: ' IN signifies an independent country.

TABLE 3. Selected Tourism Performance I n d i c a t o r s by Tourism S t y l e , 1989

Annual Annual Annual Percent Percent Percent .

Change i n Change i n Change i n Avg. D a i l y Number Stayovers Cru ise Hote l Rooms V i s i t o r o f Roops (1980-89) j 1980-89) 11982-89) D e n s i t i e s Per Km

Per 1000 Pop. 2 ' Km

Mature I s l a n d s (Avg.) 3.7 Aruba 6.9 Bahamas 3.3 Barbados 2.5 Bermuda -1.8 Curacao -0.3 S t . Maarten 12.2 U.S. V i r g i n s 2.9

I n te rmed ia te I s . (Avg.) 9.2 A n g u i l l a 18.9 An t igua 9.6 Bonai r e 4.4 B r i t i s h V i r g i n s 6.8 Caymans 6.4 Grenada 9.6 Guadel oupe 5.6 M a r t i n i q u e 7.8 S t . K i t t s 9.2 S t . Luc ia 5.8 Turks & Caicos 16.6

Emerg i ng I s 1 ands (Avg . ) 5.7 Domi n i ca 10.4 Mon tse r ra t 1.0 saba3 12.8 S t . ~ u s t a t i u s ~ 1.4 S t . V incen t 3.0

SOURCES: Computed f rom bas i c da ta i n sources l i s t e d i n Tab le 1.

NOTES : R a t i o = (No. s tayovers x avg. s tay ) t No. c r u i s e / ( p o p u l a t i o n x 365)

R a t i o = (No. s tayovers x avg. s t a y ) t No. c r u i s e / ( ~ m ~ x 365) F igu res b iased upwards because t hey i n c l u d e r e t u r n i n g r e s i d e n t s .

remain ing Windwards o f Grenada Guadeloupe, Mar t i n i que and S t . Luc ia , p l u s t h e f o u r remain ing Leewards o f Angu i l l a , Ant igua, BVI, S t . K i t t s -Nev i s , as w e l l as t h e Caymans, Turks and Caicos and Dutch Bonaire--are cha rac te r i zed by ve ry r a p i d v i s i t o r growth and burgeoning ho te l and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e c o n s t r u c t i o n .

The t h r e e p r o f i l e s c o n s i s t e n t l y emerge i n - t h e data. The mature i s - lands, except f o r St. Maarten, exper ienced r e l a t i v e l y s low v i s i t o r growth over t h e pas t decade, averaging l e s s than 4-6 percen t r e s p e c t i v e l y i n annual growth i n h o t e l and c r u i s e v i s i t o r s . The newly emerging i s l a n d s averaged much h ighe r r a t e s a t 6 and 9 percen t r e s p e c t i v e l y pe r year , w h i l e t h e i n te rmed ia te des t i na - t i o n s averaged 9 and 10 pe rcen t r e s p e c t i v e l y pe r annum. I n a d d i t i o n , annual ho- t e l room c o n s t r u c t i o n between 1982-89 f o l l owed t he same p a t t e r n . Stage I 1 1 i s - lands averaged t h e s lowest annual growth o f about 4 percent ; Stage I d e s t i n a t i o n s averaged n e a r l y 6 percen t w h i l e Stage I 1 areas averaged over 11 pe rcen t pe r year .

As expected, Stage I 1 1 areas recorded t h e h i ghes t average number of d a i l y v i s i t o r s ( h o t e l and c r u i s e ) pe r 1,000 r e s i d e n t popu la t i on . The f i g u e of 136 was a lmost double t he 76 r e g i s t e r e d f o r t h e Stage I 1 group. L ikewise, Stage I 1 d e s t i n a t i o n s averaged 66 d a i l y v i s i t o r s pe r square k i l ome te r . The i n - t e rmed ia te and emerging groups averaged o n l y 8 and 7 v i s i t o r s pe r Km2 respec t - i v e l y . Stage I 1 i s l a n d s a l s o averaged 3 1 rooms per Km2. a f i g u r e 6 and 10 t i n e s l a r g e r than t h e average 5 and 3 rooms per Km2 r e s p e c t i v e l y f o r Stage I 1 and Stage I groups.

The i n d i c a t o r s o f Table 4 f l e s h o u t o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s assoc ia ted w i t h t he t h r e e d e s t i n a t i o n 1 i f e - c y c l e stages. The mature i s l a n d s d i s p l a y t h e h i ghes t average v i s i t o r spending o f approx i inate ly $5,000 per c a p i t a . Staqe I 1 d e s t i n a t i o n s average rough l y $2,700 w h i l e Stage I i s l a n d s average about $2,000. Stage I 1 1 d e s t i n a t i o n s a l s o e x h i b i t t he s h o r t e s t average h o t e l v i s i t o r s t a y o f 7 days, p a r t l y because of crowding, a h i g h inc idence o f package t o u r s and bus i - ness t r a v e l , and t h e t r a n s i e n t cha rac te r o f some pr imary a t t r a c t i o n s ( d u t y - f r e e shopping, cas ino gambl ing, convent ions ) . Stage I 1 i s l a n d s average somewhat l onge r s tays o f 7.4 days because o f t h e s i g n i f i c a n t p o p u l a t i o n o f l onge r - s tay ing European v i s i t o r s , w h i l e t h e more unspo i l ed Stage I d e s t i n a t i o n s e x h i b i t t h e l o n g e s t average s t a y of 9 days.

The l i f e - c y c l e model a l s o d i s c r i m i n a t e s w e l l on t h e c h a r a c t e r o f h o t e l f a c i l i t i e s . Only 26 percen t o f a l l s tayover v i s i t o r s t o t h e emerging i s - lands s t a y i n h o t e l s w h i l e 51 percen t a r e ho te l guests i n Stage I 1 areas, and n e a r l y 70 percen t o f Stage I 1 1 ove rn igh te r s f requent h o t e l s . The emerging i s - lands have no l a r g e h o t e l s w i t h 100+ rooms. I n c o n t r a s t , Stage I 1 i s l a n d s aver - aged 4 such f a c i l i t i e s t h a t i n c l u d e over o n e - t h i r d o f a l l h o t e l rooms w h i l e Stage I 1 1 i s l a n d s averaged 13 l a r g e p r o p e r t i e s t h a t i n c l u d e ove r 60 percen t o f a l l rooms a v a i l a b l e . C l e a r l y t h e more developed t h e i s l a n d t h e l a r g e r and more i n t r u s i v e t h e sca le of t h e b u i l d environment and t h e more s i g n i f i c a n t t h e r o l e o f i n t e r n a - t i o n a l s tandards i n accommodations and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . The h igne r d a i l y f i x e d cos t s of these l a r g e h o t e l complexes a l s o p a r t l y e x p l a i n s which such d e s t i n a - t i o n s a r e t y p i f i e d by h i ghe r average h o t e l occupancy r a t e s .

Accord ing t o Table 5, each s tage a l s o possesses i t s own r a t h e r un ique v i s i t o r p r o f i l e . Stage I 1 1 i s l a n d s tend t o be h e a v i i y dependent on t h e Nor th American ( p r i m a r i l y US) market. Th is o r i e n t a t i o n i s p a r t l y due t o geographica l p r o x i m i t y and d i r e c t a i r l i n k s , b u t i t a l s o de r i ves f rom t h e midd le -c lass Ameri- can penchant f o r t h e f a m i l i a r . Stage I 1 d e s t i n a t i o n s average cons ide rab l y lower Nor th American dependence, t h e excep t ions be ing those Nor thern I s l a n d s i n c l o s e r

TABLE 4. Selected Tourism Spending and Hotel Characteristics by Tourism Style (1989 or latest year)

Percent Per Capita Percent Rooms in No. Hotels Hotel Visitor Average Hotel Staying in Large Hotels with rooms Occupancy

Spendi ng ($US) Stay (days) Hotel s (100 trms . ) of 100t Rate

Mature (Avg.) Aru ba Bahamas Barbados Bermuda Curacao St. Maarten U.S. Virgins

Intermediate (Avg.) Angui 11 a Antigua Bonaire British Virgins Caymans Grenada Guadel oupe Martinique St. Kitts St. Lucia Turks & Caicos

Emerging (Avg . ) Dominica Montserrat Saba St. Eustatius St. Vincent

SOURCES: ' Computed from basic data in sources listed in Table 1.

NOTES : Figure includes apartments. Authors' estimates.

9

TABLE 5. Other Selected Measures of Tourism Style (1989)

Per Capita Promotional Ratio of

Stayover Market Shares (%) Spend i ng Crui se/ Index of U.S./Can. Europe Caribbean Other ($US) Popul at i on Seasonal i tyl

Mature (Avg . ) Aruba Bahamas Barbados Bermuda Curacao St. Maarten U.S. Virgins

Intermediatp (Avg.) 49 Anguilla 62 Antigua 53 Bonai re 53 British Virgins 0 Caymans 8 2 Grenada 24 Guadel oupe 14 Martinique 9 St. Kitts 55 St. Lucia 40 Turks & Caicos 79

Emerg i ng (Avg . ) 2 9 Dominica i 6 ~ontserrat' 4 8 Saba i A St. Eustatius 16 St. Vincent 3 5

SOURCES: Computed from basic data in sources listed in Table 1.

NOTES : 1 Number of stayovers during winter (December-May) divided by the number of stayovers during summer (June-November). Bermuda's high season is from April to September. Calculated as a residual, not an average. Included in "Other" category. Includes residents of the French West Indies. Data are for 1988. Includes Grenadians 1 iving abroad returning on hol iday. Includes returning residents.

proximity to the mainland. The most distinct feature of the intermediate pro- file is the importance of European visitors, especially British and French, who average nearly a third of the total. These tourists are traditionally more af- fluent and longer-staying than Americans. For example, in 1989 the average stay for Europeans to the Caribbean was 10.7 days while it was only 6.7 for US visi- tors (CTO, 1990:78).

Stage I islands tend to be least oriented to the North American market largely because of their lack of jet airports and internatinal visibility and their small unsophisticated accommodation and asset structure. These islands are the most dependent on West Indian travellers, primarily businessmen and emigrants to other islands who generally return in the summer and at Christmas. This West Indian orientation is partly responsible for the low preference for hotel lodging and long average visitor stays.

The other tourism indicators in Table 5 suggest the same life-cycle behavior of increasing penetration. The mature destinations spend the most on promotion, i .e. $132 per capita. The figure is lowest for the emerging areas, less than $10, and falls in between ($53) for the transitional destinations. The older high-density mass-market destinations tend to spend heavily to main- tain visitor flow in the face of crowding, intense competition, and environ- mental overrun. Such spending is necessary to inform markets of the latest man-made attractions established to replace the declining quality of amenities. Such advertising is least imperative among emerging islands because of their heavy reliance on the Caribbean traveller and because growth is effectively fostered in non-regional markets by word of mouth.

Similarly, the gross ratio of cruise visitors to total resident population is another rough index of tourist epentration. For 1989 there were on the average between 5-6 cruise visitors per resident in the Stage I11 is- lands, between 2-3 in the Stage I1 islands, and, with the exclusion of Saba, less than 2 cruise visitors per resident in Stage 1 destinations. These re- sults are cot surprising since it is the more mature and visible areas that possess well-developed natural and man-made attractions that appeal to the one-day cruise excursionists.

Seasonality has persistently affected Caribbean tourism with the highest visitor flows predictably during the December through May winter season. The remaining months often witness low visitation, reduced hotel staffing and, in some areas, routine hotel closings. Although the island differences are quite minor, an index of seasonality based on 1989 data indicates that average seasonality is lowest among mature destinations and highest among transitional areas. This is expected since the more developed islands adopt numerous off- season promotions to create year-round activity. These packages include summer carnivals, sailing regattas, sporting events, honeymoon weekends, cruise tours and the like.

Caribbean Small -Island Tourism Styles

The foregoing suggests small-island Caribbean tourism generally confcrn:~ t o the three basic stages of the life-cycle model. The low-density emerging islands are visited primarily by long-staying West Indian business- men and emigrants returning home, long-term winter vacationers, North American retirees, as well as the more intrepid few attracted by the unspoiled quality

of undamaged n a t u r a l asse ts and scenic ameni t ies . These areas a r e a l s o t y p i - f i e d by modest t o u r i s t growth, sma l l -sca le accommodations and t h e absence o f j e t p o r t s . Because o f t h e i r l i m i t e d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and b u i l t assets , t hey a l s o exper ience low per c a p i t a v i s i t o r expend i tu re and c r u i s e t r a f f i c . Stage I i s - lands i n c l u d e Dominica, renowned f o r i t s n a t u r a l rugged beauty, t h e r e t i r e m e n t haven o f Montser ra t , Saba and S t . Eus ta t i us appeal i n g . t o w i n t e r vaca t ioners , d i v e en thus ias ts , and day - t r i ppe rs f rom St. Maarten, and S t . Vincent-Grenadines s p e c i a l i z i n g i n s a i l i n g and snorke l ing .

I n te rmed ia te d e s t i n a t i o n s a r e cha rac te r i zed by a r e l a t i v e l y balanced v i s i t o r p r o f i l e of Nor th Americans, Europeans and West I nd ians . They a r e unique- l y recognized f o r t h e i r r a p i d t o u r i s t expansion, h o t e l c o n s t r u c t i o n , and popula- t i o n growth. They have a h i ghe r r a t i o o f Nor th American v i s i t o r s and a s h o r t e r average s t a y than Stage I d e s t i n a t i o n s . I n c o n t r a s t t o Stage I 1 1 i s l ands , t hey e x h i b i t h i ghe r r a t e s o f seasona l i t y and lower l e v e l s o f pe r c a p i t a promot ional spending and c r u i s e t r a f f i c . They i nc l ude recen t e n t r a n t s l i k e Grenada, St. K i t t s , A n g u i l l a , and St. Luc ia and t he more developed areas: Ant igua BVI, Bonaire, Cay- mans, Guadeloupe, Mar t i n i que , and Turks and Caicos. Together they occupy t h e midd le o r exponent ia l segment o f t h e S-shaped l i f e - c y c l e cont inuum (see Table 6) . Some may move i n t o Stage 111 by t h e t u r n o f t h e cen tu ry .

Stage 111 i s l a n d s a re cha rac te r i zed by h i g h v i s i t o r and h o t e l room d e n s i t i e s b u t s low popu la t ion , t o u r i s t , and room c o n s t r u c t i o n growth r a t e s . T h e i r mass-market p r o f i l e i s dominated by sho r t - s tay i ng No r th Americans w i t h a h i g h p re fe rence f o r h o t e l s , l a rge -sca le f a c i l i t i e s , and o t h e r man-made a t t r a c - t i o n s . As i n d i c a t o r s o f t h e i r i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n , t h e y a l s o e x h i b i t t h e h i ghes t l e v e l s o f h o t e l occupancy and v i s i t o r and promot ional spending per cap- i t a , and t h e l owes t degree o f seasona l i t y . They a r e t h e most pene t ra ted i s l a n d s and occupy t h e n o r t h e a s t end o f t h e l i f e - c y c l e continuum. They i n c l u d e t h e n a t u r e d e s t i n a t i o n s o f St . Maarten, Curacao, Aruba, Barbados and t h e most est&b'i i shed areas o f Bailamas, Bermuda, and U S V I . They a r e most def ined by t h e i r nass-market, high-volume o r i e n t a t i o n , crowding, and t h e i r b u i l t up i n - f r a s t r u c t u r e and asse t base.

Resource Impacts

I n t h e c o n t e x t o f sus ta i nab le development, t h e growth dynamic un- covered by t h e l i f e - c y c l e model poses se r i ous long- run problems f o r smal l Car ib - bean i s l ands . Danger i s most immediate f o r t h e most developed Stage I 1 1 i s l a n d s because t h e i r f u t u r e v i a b i l i t y depends u l t i m a t e l y on t h e e c o l o g i c a l i n t e g r i t y of o f t he n a t u r a l asse t base, t h e t r a d i t i o n a l l u r e of t r o p i c a l i s l a n d tour i sm. v e t t h e l i t e r a t u r e suggests i t i s p r e c i s e l y these h igh- impact mature d e s t i n a t i o n s t h a t have undergone t h e most v i s i b l e ecosystem a l t e r a t i o n s i n t h e postwar e r a of r a p i d t o u r i s t expansion (Beekhuis, 1981; Archer, 1955; Towle, 1985; Jackson, 1986; Edwards, 1987 ; McEl r o y and o thers , 1990a). These i n t r u s i o n s i n c l u d e ree f damage and mangrove d e s t r u c t i o n , l o s s o f spec ies d i v e r s i t y and b i o l o g i c a l p ro - d u c t i v i t y , d e t e r i o r a t i n g i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , mar ine p o l l u t i o n , over-crowding, land- use c o n f l i c t s and r e a l e s t a t e i n f l a t i o n , growing s o c i a l tens ions , and q u a l i t y d e c l i n e s i n t h e v i s i t o r exper ience. I n some instances, v i s i t o r a r r i v a l s have f l u c t u a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y , r epea t v i s i t a t i o n and l e n g t h o f s t a y a r e d e c l i n i n g , and increased promot ion and ever-new man-made a t t r a c t i o n s a r e needed t o s u s t a i n demand i n t he f ace o f l o s t o r degraded n a t u r a l ameni t ies .

I n a l o n g e r te rm hor izon, however, t h e l i f e - c y c l e model a l s o has s t r ong p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e l e s s pene t ra ted i s l ands . Resu l ts i n d i c a t e

and Sty1 es

STAGE I 1 1 (Mature) High Densi ty Shopping Mass Market Gambl i ng Short -Stay ing Conventions N. Americans Large Hotels S l ow Growth

Bermuda

Bahamas

U.S. V i rg ins

Barbados

Aruba

Curacao

S t . Maarten

TABLE 6. Caribbean

STAGE I (Emersinq) Low Densi ty Retirement Long-Staying Nature Tourism West I nd ian Small Hotel s Winter Residence Local Contro l

S t . Vincent

S t . Eus ta t ius

Saba

Montserrat

Dominica

Small - I s 1 and Tourism Stages

STAGE I1 ( In te rmed ia te1 Rapid Growth Sub-Stvles European F i sh ing High Seasonal i t y Sai 1 i ng

D iv ing .

Ant igua

M a r t i n i que

Guadel oupe

Caymans

B r i t i s h V i r g i n I s .

Turks/Caicos

Bonai r e

S t . Lucia

A n g u i l l a

S t . K i t t s /Nev i s

Grenada

t h a t t h e g e s t a t i o n o f t ou r i sm i n t he r e g i o n i s dynamic, t h a t d e s p i t e wide d i f - ferences i n s i z e , economic s t r u c t u r e , l e v e l s o f a f f l uence and c o l o n i a l h i s t o r y , a l l d e s t i n a t i o n s over t ime tend t o t r a c k through t h e r e l a t i v e l y p r e d i c t a b l e stages o f t o u r i s t development. The h igh-dens i ty slow-growing mass-market i s l a n d s o f t o - day were t h e low-dens i ty emerging d e s t i n a t i o n s of t h e 1950s. They subsequent ly advanced th rough t h e i r t r a n s i t i o n a l boom and c o n s o l i d a t i o n phase i n t h e 1960s and e a r l y 1970s. L ikewise, t h e Stage I 1 d e s t i n a t i o n s o f today were j u s t emerging on t h e t o u r i s t ho r i zon i n t h e 1960s and 1970s. These t r a n s i t i o n a l areas pre- s e n t l y face ma jo r i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l dec i s i ons which may push them across t h e Stage I 1 1 t h r e s h o l d d u r i n g t h i s decade.

I n a d d i t i o n , t h e growth o f t o u r i s m i n a l l Caribbean i s l a n d s has com- peted l and and l a b o r resources away f rom t r a d i t i o n a l renewable uses. Th is has been due t o t h e smal l s i z e o f t h e ecnomies. t h e r a p i d growth of tour i sm, and t h e wide s e c t o r a l wage and income imbalances between t h e v i s i t o r i n d u s t r y and t h e t r a - d i t i o n a l sec to r s (McEl r o y and deAl buquerque, 1990b). Th is process of a g r i c u l t u r a l m a r g i n a l i z a t i o n has exacerbated dependence and s e r i o u s l y b l u n t e d t h e success of postwar t o u r i s t d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n and t h e long- run s t a b i l i t y o f i n s u l a r economies.

The d e c l i n e i n a g r i c u l t u r e and f i s h i n g i s c l e a r f rom a revew o f t h e pub l i shed da ta a v a i l a b l e on a subset o f 8 o f t h e 23 i s l a n d s a t va r i ous stages on t h e l i f e - c y c l e continuum. Al though t h e y v a r y i n s ize , economic s t r u c t u r e and l e v e l o f development, a lmost w i t h o u t excep t ion a l l have exper ienced major losses i n r u r a l a c t i v i t y . Accord ing t o Table 7, t h e percentage c o n t r i b u t i o n of a g r i c u l - t u r e ( i n c l u d i n g f o r e s t r y and f i s h i n g ) t o G D P d e c l i n e d p r e c i p i t o u s l y f o r a l l i s - lands except Dominica. Reductions were sharpest f o r t h e s m a l l e s t i s l ands : A n t i - gua w i t h i t s d r y c l i m a t e and e a r l y e n t r y i n t o t o u r i s m i n t h e 1960s; Montser ra t plagued by l i m i t e d a r a b l e l a n d and steep topography; and St. K i t t s p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h t h e d e c l i n e i n sugar expo r t s t o t h e US i n r ecen t years. The most r a p i d de- c l i n e s co inc ided w i t h l a rge -sca le em ig ra t i on i n t he 1960s and t o u r i s m growth i n the 1970s. T l ~ e s teepes t d e c l i n e s occur red i n t h e most developed t o u r i s t area, t h e USVI.

For t h e b e t t e r endowed and l a r g e r Windwards, d e c l i n e s were more marked i n t h e 1970s because o f em ig ra t i on and t h e 1980s because of t o u r i s t expansion. I n every case except Dominica, where fa rming remains a dynamic sec to r , a g r i c u l t u r e ' s c o n t r i b u t i o n i n 1987 was l e s s than h a l f t h e 1961 l e v e l . A t p resen t on t h e average a g r i c u l t u r e accounts f o r n e a r l y o n e - f i f t h of G D P i n these l a r g e r i s l a n d c o u n t r i e s and rough l y one - fou r t h o f a1 1 employment. Th i s s t i l l r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e c o n t r i bu- t i o n i s ma in l y a f unc t i on o f t h e s t r ong r o l e of commercial a g r i c u l t u r e expor ts (bananas) i n these m ic ros ta tes as w e l l as t h e i r l e s s e r l e v e l s o f t o u r i s m i n t e n s i t y .

S i m i l a r p a t t e r n s o f renewable resource d e c l i n e s a r e e v i d e n t i n t h e farm and acreage da ta f o r t h e f o u r sma l l e r Leeward I s l ands . For Ant igua, f lont- s e r r a t , St. K i t t s , and USVI on t he average between 1960 and 1987 t h e number of farms f e l l by over 50 pe rcen t and t h e acreage i n farms f e l l on t h e average 75 percent . These changes were a l s o assoc ia ted ( n o t shown) w i t h d e c l i n e s i n fa rm s i ze , f u l l - t i m e e f f o r t , and c rop land harvested, as w e l l as inc reases i n pas tu re - l and i n farms and t h e average age of fa rm opera to rs .

I n most cases t h e y a r e a l s o assoc ia ted w i t h ex t reme ly sharp s e s t o r a l wage and income imbalances. The USVI i s an i l l u s t r a t i v e case. I n 1987 t h e ave- rage va lue of p r o d u c t i o n pe r fa rm ac re i n c rop sa les was r o u g h l y $300 w h i l e t h e average p r i c e o f r e a l e s t a t e approached $30,000 per acre. Earn ings i n t o u r i s t se rv i ces and c o n s t r u c t i o n t r ades were t w i c e t h e wage o f h i r e d f a rm l a b o r and

TABLE 7. Selec ted A g r i c u l t u r a l I nd i ca to rs f o r Se lec ted S m a l l

Car ibbean l s lands

1 A ~ r i c u l t u r e as a Percent o f GDP

I s l a n d 1961 1970 1980 1987

An t i gua

Domin i ca

Grenada

M o n t s e r r a t

S t . K i t t s

S t . L u c i a

S t . V incen t

U.S. V i r g i n s

No. o f Fa rms Acreaae in Fa rms

A n t i q l ~ a

Mon t s e r r a t

S t . K i t t s

U.S. V i r g i n s

SOURCES: McElroy and de Albuquerque ( l99Cb ) .

NOTES: ' Inc ludes l i ves tock , f o r e s t r y , and f i s h i n g .

t h r e e t imes h i g h e r than t he p r e v a i l i n g wage i n Ant igua and St . K i t t s (McElroy and deAl buquerque, 1990b). Such v a s t d i f f e r e n c e s were l a r g e l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r competing resources away f rom t r a d i t i o n a l uses over t h e p a s t t h r e e decades.

Taken toge ther , t h i s evidence suggests t h a t a g r i c u l t u r e has de- c l i ned r e l a t i v e l y and a b s o l u t e l y d u r i n g postwar t o u r i s t d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n , and t h a t much of t h e r e g i o n ' s economic r e s t r u c t u r i n g has been a t t h e expense of renewable uses. Evidence a l s o suggests t h a t t h e most drammatic d e c l i n e s have occur red i n t h e most pene t ra ted d e s t i n a t i o n s l i k e t h e U S V I and Ant igua, w h i l e l e s s severe encroachment has occur red i n t h e newer emerging areas l i k e Domini- ca and t h e Windwards i n genera l . These case h i s t o r i e s a l s o i n d i c a t e t h a t e x i s t i n g p o l i c i e s t o r e t a i n sus ta i nab le uses have been i n e f f e c t i v e and t h a t a g r i c u l t u r a l m a r g i n a l i z a t i o n w i l l con t i nue un less new approaches a r e mounted.

!dew D i r e c t i o n s --

To e s t a b l i s h a sus ta i nab le a g r i c u l t u r e i n t he c o n t e x t of a durab le t ou r i sm t h a t respec ts t h e n a t i v e genius o f t he environment, a v a r i e t y o f broad p o l i c y d i r e c t i o n s a r e i nd i ca ted . A lower -dens i ty a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e mass t o u r i s m s t y l e (1) must become an i n s u l a r p r i o r i t y , ( 2 ) must i n v o l v e com- prehensive p lann ing , ( 3 ) must take a view beyond sho r t - t e rm po l i t i c a l hor izons, and ( 4 ) must emphasize i n c r e a s i n g l o c a l c o n t r o l i n dec i s i ons i n v o l v i n g f u t u r e n a t u r a l resource uses. For Stage I 1 1 d e s t i n a t i o n s where f o r c e f u l a c t i o n i s n o s t compel l ing, p o l i c i e s must focus on environmental r e s t o r a t i o n , more e f f i - c i e n t l y managing e x i s t i n g d e n s i t i e s , and t a r g e t i n g l e s s damaging ways t o r a i s e n e t t o u r i s t expend i tu re o t h e r than r i s i n g promotion, v i s i t o r volume, and i n - e v i t a b l e e c o l o g i c a l degradat ion.

L ikewise, f o r t h e m a j o r i t y o f small Caribbean i s l a n d s i n Stage I 1 of t h e l i f e - c y c l e , p a r t i c u l a r l y those engaged i n major i n f r a s t r u c t u r e dec is ions t h a t w i l l determine t h e l o n g - r ~ n des ign o f t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n i d e n t i t y f a r i n t o t h e fu tu re , a range of new s t r a t e g i e s must be dev ised t o f o r e s t a l l f u r t h e r movecent. up t h e S-curve and cumula t i ve damage t o t h e f r a g i l e ecosystem. Many new d i r e c t i o n s a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r se r ious cons ide ra t i on . The s tandard t o u r i s m expend i tu re impact equa t ion p rov ides a c l u e t o t h e i r con ten t :

where GDPt rep resen ts t o u r i s t GDP, N i s t he number of s tayover v i s i t o r s , L i s t h e average l e n g t h o f s tay, E i s per c a p i t a d a i l y expendi ture, and K i s t h e t o u r i s t GDP o r income m u l t i p l i e r . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h e t r a d i t i o n a l focus on r a i s i n g v i s i t o r d e n s i t i e s (N) , e f f o r t s must be found t o maximize t h e n e t ex- p e n d i t u r e impact o f t o u r i s m through r a i s i n g average l e n g t h of s tay , pe r c a p i t a d a i l y expend i tu re , and t h e t o u r i s t income m u l t i p l i e r .

Length of s t a y can be expanded by t a s t e f u l l y deve lop ing and care - f u l l y des ign ing v i s i t o r (and r e s i d e n t ) access t o un ique unexplored n a t u r a l and h i s t o r i c a l assets , c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s , and t r a d i t i o n a l a r t i f a c t s . Th is s t r a t e g y needs t o be bu t t r essed by two a d d i t i o n a l p o l i c i e s : (1) t a r g e t market - i n g n a t u r a l i s t s , d i v e r s , c t h e r spo r t s en thus ias t s and upscale t o u r i s t s w i t h a preference f o r 1 ong s tays and c u l t u r a l /nature-based exper iences; and ( 2 ) 1 e 9 a l l y p r o t e c t i n g c e r t a i n h e a v i l y s t ressed ecosystems and p r i s t i n e areas r i c h i n l o c a l assets f rom f u t u r e development t o avo id f u r t h e r degrada t ion and/or t o c r e a t e n a t u r a l sanc tuar ies i n areas o f 1 ow a g r i c u l t u r a l p o t e n t i a l .

Per capita daily v is i tor expenditure can be raised by establishing or raising user fees for access to these natural marine and t e r r e s t r i a l a t t rac- tions and protected areas, historical assets , and cultural ac t iv i t i e s . This in- crease in price will both l imit demand and overexploitation and provide ear- marked revenues to finance environmental monitoring and maintenance. This policy can be strengthened with the development of low-budget r e s t , recreation and con- cession f a c i l i t i e s that may include the conduct of sh0.t-t seminars on insular history and the native f lora and fauna with accompanying brochures.

The tour i s t income multiplier can be raised in a variety of ways: local promotion, tax incentives for local purchases by v is i tor f a c i l i t i e s , en- couraging small-scale f a c i l i t i e s which make local ownership more accessible and which tend to cater to local suppliers, and so on. Such e f fo r t s , even i f they lead to only marginal increases in the multiplier value, say 3-4 percent, in combination with similar increases i n length of v i s i to r stay and per capita daily expenditure, can over time t ranslate into noticeable increases in the net tourism impact: in th i s case approximately a 10 percent increase, or a l t e r - natively the same tour i s t impact with roughly 10 percent fewer v is i tors .

A compatible agricultural strategy will also need t o be integrated into the overall package. I t should focus more intensively on the production and marketing problems of the small -holder (under 10 acres) . Such small -scale operators comprise over 80 percent of a l l farmers/fishermen, service both the domestic and tour i s t markets, produce greater crop diversity (than larger farms) and minimize the use of imported chemicals and f e r t i l i z e r s . They also tend t o reduce intrusive spillovers on contiguous ecosystems. Such a strategy also favors agroforestry, a combination of perennial f r u i t trees and traditional root crops intercropped with nitrogen-fixing legumes. This type of polyculture i s well-adapted to small tourist-dependent economies i n the region for a vari- ety of reasons. I t tends to (1) reduce labor e f fo r t by maximizinq low-ti1 lage natural nutrietlt recycling, ( 2 ) preserve species diversity a n d scenic amenities, and ( 3 ) reduce erosion on steep slopes common in volcanic islands.

Finally, in search for an ecotourism s ty le that i s more environmen- t a l l y compatible, island policy must be suff ic ient ly forceful and persistent t o withstand local pressures for short-run successes and the powerful thrusts of the international a i r l i ne , cruise, hotel and travel agent interests that largely control the v is i tor business. This suggests tha t policy must be anchored to a rising community awareness of the long-term tour i s t i c value of the natural and cultural patrimony as well as the long-term recreational/cultura1 uses for fu- ture resident generations. This awareness i s most easi ly created when a l l seg- ments of the population have some share in the benefits of tourism and some voice in the industry's design and management. Such a community participation approach, even in i t s broadest out1 ines, provides a promising move towards a tourism s ty le that i s economically profitable, social ly acceptable, and environ- men ta bl y compa t i bl e .

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