integrated resource planning: an overview mark howells & bruno merven energy research centre...
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Integrated Resource Planning: Integrated Resource Planning:
An overviewAn overview
Mark Howells & Bruno MervenMark Howells & Bruno Merven Energy Research CentreEnergy Research CentreUniversity of Cape TownUniversity of Cape Town
OutlineOutline
IntroductionIntroduction
Aims of resource planningAims of resource planning
The National Integrated Resource PlanThe National Integrated Resource Plan
NIRP outputsNIRP outputs
NIRP methodologyNIRP methodology
Future planningFuture planning
IntroductionIntroductionWhy electricity as a source of energy?Why electricity as a source of energy?
Electricity - a driver of our economyElectricity - a driver of our economy
The Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) is The Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) is very capital intensive – economies of scalevery capital intensive – economies of scale
Electricity is hard to storeElectricity is hard to store
Aims of Resource PlanningAims of Resource Planning
Meet electricity demand reliably at the Meet electricity demand reliably at the cheapest cost cheapest cost
Be consistent with environmental, social Be consistent with environmental, social and economic policiesand economic policies
Meeting increasing demand:Meeting increasing demand: Expanding generating capacityExpanding generating capacity Reducing load via demand side managementReducing load via demand side management
The NIRPThe NIRP
National Energy Regulator initiative the National Energy Regulator initiative the driven by the Energy Policy White driven by the Energy Policy White Paper for SAPaper for SANIRP 1 in March 2002NIRP 1 in March 2002NIRP 2 in September 2004NIRP 2 in September 2004 Advisory board: NER, DME, ESKOM, Advisory board: NER, DME, ESKOM,
ERC, IPP, …ERC, IPP, … Project team: NER, ESKOM, ERCProject team: NER, ESKOM, ERC
NIRP 2 outputs:NIRP 2 outputs:1. Capacity Plans1. Capacity Plans
Capacity PlansCapacity Plans
NIRP 2 Outputs:NIRP 2 Outputs:2. Sensitivity to possible scenarios2. Sensitivity to possible scenarios
Cost and ReliabilityCost and Reliability
MethodologyMethodology
1.1. Demand and projectionsDemand and projections
2.2. Current generation capacityCurrent generation capacity
3.3. New generation capacity optionsNew generation capacity options
4.4. Demand Side Management optionsDemand Side Management options
5.5. Identify constraints – define scenariosIdentify constraints – define scenarios
6.6. Include all this into the computer modelInclude all this into the computer model
7.7. Run optimizationRun optimization
Primary energye.g. Coal
Electricity generation
GridDemand process
e.g. Electric HeaterFinal Energy
e.g. Heat
The Energy System
1. Establish current demand and 1. Establish current demand and projectionsprojections
2. Establish current generation capacity2. Establish current generation capacity3. Identify suitable new generation capacity options3. Identify suitable new generation capacity options
Be technologically feasibleBe economically viableBe socially, politically and environmentally acceptableHave suitable production pattern Have site availability – close to demandUnder some level of suitable control
3. Identify Demand Side 3. Identify Demand Side Management optionsManagement options
4. Program the Computer Model4. Program the Computer Model
Coal
Existing Capacity
Nuclear PP
Wind PP
Transmission and
Distribution
New Capacity Options
Coal PP
NormalDemand
Technology
EfficientDemand
Technology
Useful energyper sector
HeatLight…
CoalGas
Nuclear… Gas PP
Primary Energy
Specified:Specified:• Capital costs per MWCapital costs per MW• Fuel costs (as specified by mining/importing)Fuel costs (as specified by mining/importing)• Operation costs per MWhOperation costs per MWh• Lifetime (years)Lifetime (years)
• Operating conditions: Peaking, base loadOperating conditions: Peaking, base load• Constraints: Technical e.g. Capacity, Constraints: Technical e.g. Capacity, availabilityavailability• Constraints: Policy e.g. share of Constraints: Policy e.g. share of renewables, renewables, Emissions Emissions
Model outputs after optimizationModel outputs after optimization
Capacity and activity of selected Capacity and activity of selected processes (including timing + choice of processes (including timing + choice of investments) i.e. The Planinvestments) i.e. The Plan
Total CostsTotal Costs
Marginal cost of electricityMarginal cost of electricity
Total emissionsTotal emissions
Weaknesses of this approachWeaknesses of this approach
Deterministic approach, uncertainty: Deterministic approach, uncertainty: handled in reserve marginhandled in reserve margin discount rates and scenario based constraintsdiscount rates and scenario based constraints
Suitable for finding a robust plan but not Suitable for finding a robust plan but not necessarily a flexible plannecessarily a flexible planTechnology diversity must be forced onto the Technology diversity must be forced onto the system as a constraintsystem as a constraintBottom up approaches tend to be bulkyBottom up approaches tend to be bulkyDifficult to asses impact of plan on overall Difficult to asses impact of plan on overall economyeconomy
Possible alleys to be explored in Possible alleys to be explored in the futurethe future
To account for flexibility:To account for flexibility: Decision analysis type approachesDecision analysis type approaches Stochastic programmingStochastic programming
Link to general equilibrium modelsLink to general equilibrium models