integrated resource plan public workshop 1...public comment opportunities inside & outside of...

Integrated Resource Plan Public Workshop 1 IRP Overview

February 24, 2020

WELCOME!We look forward to working with you.

Outline

Public Process

IRP Basics

Planning for Uncertainty

Major 2020 Focus Areas

Modeling Overview

Public Comment Period

Next Steps and Action Items

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Public ProcessWhat can you expect?

Public Process Overview

Working Group Selected to ensure commitment and balance of perspectives

Four workshops to review inputs, analyses and recommendations

Other Efforts All meeting materials posted on website

Public comment opportunities inside & outside of workshops

Occasional public surveys

Objectives Listen and understand stakeholder objectives and concerns

Provide a forum for productive stakeholder feedback

Increase community understanding of Tacoma Power’s planning process

5

What You Can Expect

Opportunity for input on…. What scenarios of the future we should include

What resources we should consider

Which portfolio should be the preferred portfolio

What our action items after the IRP should be

And more!

Materials Materials to be posted one week before workshop

Notes to be circulated 10 days after workshop

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IRP BasicsWhat is an IRP?

What is an IRP?

An integrated resource plan:

Is a roadmap for providing reliable and low-cost power in an uncertain future

Helps us make sure sufficient resource are available when needed and not before

Ensures we meet environmental regulatory requirements cost-effectively

Is required by Washington State law (19.280 RCW)

Is a plan for meeting clean energy mandates

20-year time horizon

IRP

BA

SIC

S

8

9Source Regulatory Assistance Project (2013)

Overview of IRP Process

Needs Assessment

Portfolio Analysis & Selection

Action Items

Do we have enough resources to meet our load

under most conditions?

Which set of resources best meet our needs, risk

tolerance and values?

What are our next steps?

IRP

BA

SIC

S

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Key Findings from Last TimeIR

P B

ASI

CS

1. Sufficient resources to meet load over next 20 years

2. Conservation is the only resource needed

3. State mandates for new renewables to be fulfilled through purchase of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)

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Action Plan from Last TimeIR

P B

ASI

CS

2017 Action Plan

Acquire 6.4 aMW of conservation in 2017-2019 biennium

Investigate future value of capacity

Explore expansion of IRP to include DER planning

Investigate resource planning tools and analysis methodologies

2017-2019 Actions

Acquired 8.4 aMW of conservation to date

Work began in 2018 and continues today

EV Study to understand charging patterns, DR potential study,

downtown network deferral study

Updated modeling tools & analysis approach

Planning for UncertaintyHow are we dealing with future unknowns?

If you are sure of tomorrow, there is no fool greater than you!

Mehmet Murat ildan

Who knows what the future holds?

Policy

Loads

Fuel

Technology

Markets

Prices

Electrification?

Industrial loads?

Retail competition?

Bad water year?

Climate impacts?

Gas pipelines?

Accelerated decarbonization?

Fish regulation changes?

Capacity markets?

Organized market?

Renewable hydrogen?

Molten salt storage?

Battery alternatives?

High or low?

Volatile or stable?

PLA

NN

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FO

R U

NC

ERTA

INTY

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How IRP will address uncertainty

Base Case

• Existing laws and trends

Alternative Scenario 1

• Alternative set of assumptions 1

Alternative Scenario 2

• Another alternative set of assumptions 2

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Run many simulations with

different weather & prices





Scenarios Random Variability

Major Focus Areas of 2020 IRPWhat are the major questions we need to answer this time?

What major changes have occurred since last time?

Make Near-Term Resource Decision

Columbia Basin Hydro (CBH) Contract Renewal

5 Irrigation Canals

~27 aMW in months of March through October

3% of portfolio on average

Staggered contracts expiring 2022-2026

2020 IRP will make a recommendation on whether or not to renew

MA

JOR

FO

CU

S A

REA

S

Key Questions

1. Should we renew the contracts?

2. If not, what resource (if any) will we need in order to replace them?

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Conduct Preliminary Analysis

BPA Contract Renewal/Product Selection

Federal Power Marketing Agency

Power sold at cost

Tacoma Power has been a BPA customer since 1940

Over 50% of Tacoma’s portfolio on average

Current contract expires 2028

2020 IRP will conduct preliminary analysis on value of renewing current contract vs. alternative product selection

MA

JOR

FO

CU

S A

REA

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Key Questions

1. Given current product offerings and expected policy framework, which product(s) seem likely to meet Tacoma’s needs in the future?

2. Is there any potential value in a more diverse portfolio (i.e. complementing BPA contract with another resource)?

3. What do we need to know before conducting a more definitive analysis?

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Incorporate New Laws

Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA)

100% of load met by non-emitting resources or alternative compliance 2030-2044 (up to 20% from alternative compliance)

100% of load met by non-emitting resources by 2045

Incorporate Social Cost of Carbon into planning and resource decisions

10-year Clean Energy Action Plan by 2020

4-year Clean Energy Implementation Plan by 2022

Ensure equitable distribution of benefits and reduction of burdens to vulnerable populations and highly impacted communities

Many details TBD in rulemaking

Initial analyses suggest

current portfolio will comply

With 2030-2044 mandate

MA

JOR

FO

CU

S A

REA

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Model Climate Change

Climate Change Impacts on Tacoma

Slightly higher temperatures (+1.8°F to +4.3°F), especially in summer

Little change in total inflows

More water in winter, less in summer

Higher peak flows, lower low flows

Impacts on Columbia River system (BPA) less extreme

MA

JOR

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CU

S A

REA

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Source: UW Climate Impact Group study prepared for Tacoma Power (2015)

Other Changes

•Discussed next

New Modeling Tools

•Discussed next time

New Portfolio Performance Metrics

• Its existence/absence could impact future prices and opportunity to buy and sell capacity products

Regional Resource Adequacy Program

•Not modeled in 2020 IRP but is likely to increase value of highly flexible resources

Tacoma Participation in CA Energy Imbalance Market

•Could impact expectations for future loads

Transportation Electrification Plan

MA

JOR

FO

CU

S A

REA

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Modeling OverviewWhat modeling tools are we using?

How do they fit together?

Tacoma’s Toolset

Portfolio Performance

Tacoma Resource Dispatch

Price Simulation

Western Resource

Build

SAM

MO

DEL

ING

OV

ERV

IEW

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How does Aurora work and what are the key inputs we use?

Aurora WECC Model

Aurora: Capacity Expansion

• Zonal Definition• Zones• Areas• Transmission

• Existing Resources• Costs• Physical

Properties• Operational

Constraints• Early Retirement

Resources• Candidate Resources• Demand Forecasts• Fuel Cost Forecasts• Policy Constraints• Other inputs

• Resource buildout by zone

• Economic resource retirement by zone

• Total build costs

Inputs:

Outputs:

Aurora: Capacity Expansion Model

Changes to AURORA’s Database:

- Separated “OWI” zone into separate “OR”, “WA”, and “ID” zones.

- Updated Early Coal Retirements

- Updated WECC RPS constraints

- Added CETA constraint

17 Zones36 Transmission Links 5700 Power Plant Units w/Properties







0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2019 2020 2023 2025 2026 2027 2028 Totalby

2030C

apac

ity

(MW

)

Announced Early Coal Retirements

Colstrip (2) Colstrip (3)

Colstrip (4) Colstrip(1)

Craig (2) Jim Bridger (1)

Jim Bridger (2) Naughton (1)

Naughton (2) Naughton (3)

North Valmy (1) Total







0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

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WECC RPS

RPS_WA RPS_CA

RPS_CO RPS_OR

RPS_NM RPS_MT

RPS_AZ RPS_NV

WECC Wgt Ave






- Added CETA constraints

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

CETA "Effective RPS"

All WA Hydro Counts for CETA

Hydro Net of Exports Counts for CETA (100% clean case)

Hydro Net of Exports Counts for CETA (80% clean case)

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$/t

on

Social Cost of Carbon (applied in WA for LT only)

Aurora: Production Cost Model

• Zonal Definition• Modified Resources

• Output from Capacity Expansion Step

• Demand Forecasts• Weather

Adjusted• Hydro Capability

• Weather/ “Water Year” Adjusted

• Fuel Cost Forecasts• Risk Simulations

• Other Inputs

• Hourly, Weather Adjusted, Long-Term Price Forecasts

Inputs:

Outputs:



• Included 1950-2007 water year adjusted hydro capability

• Simulated 5 natural gas risk iterations

• Adjusted demand forecasts to 1950-2007 water years




• Simulated 5 natural gas price risk iterations

• Adjusted demand forecasts to 1950-2007 water years

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$/M

mb

tu (

20

19

$)

Natural Gas Price




• Simulated 5 natural gas risk iterations

• Adjusted demand forecasts to reflect 1950 to 2007 temperatures

How will Tacoma’s system operate for a given weather simulation and market scenario?

IRP System Model (SAM)

PAST FUTURE

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Plug and Play Resources

Hydro-Electric

Solar Wind

Natural Gas

Pumped Hydro

Battery Storage

BPA Slice Contract

BPA Block Contract

Other Contracts

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Plug and Play Resources

Each Resource has set a parameters that define its constraints and determine its dispatch

A resource scenario consists of a set of resources and their resource parameters

For a given run the resource scenario defines Tacoma Generation

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Model Dispatches Tacoma Generation

Regional Generation

Tacoma Inflows

Weather

Regional Load

Regional Inflows

Prices Tacoma Generation

Tacoma Load

MO

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ING

OV

ERV

IEW

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IRP System Model S

Model Dispatches Tacoma Generation

Weather

Prices

Hourly Dispatch for each Resource

Meets all Resource Constraints

Resource Scenario

Meets all System Constraints

INPUTS OUTPUTS

MO

DEL

ING

OV

ERV

IEW

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Public Comment Period

Next Steps and Action ItemsWhat are we covering next?

Workshop PlanN

ext

Step

s an

d A

ctio

n It

ems

Background Information

Key Inputs & Assumptions

Current Resources and Future Options

Preferred Alternative and

Action Items

IRP Overview

Workshop 1Present key inputs

Present and discuss metrics

Present and discuss scenarios

Workshop 2Review current situation

Present and discuss resource alternatives

Workshop 3 Present analysis results

Present and discuss preferred portfolio

Discuss action items

Workshop 4

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Workshop 2

Key Inputs and Assumptions

Base Case

• Tacoma Conservation Potential Assessment

• Tacoma Load Forecast

• WECC Buildout Assumptions

• WECC Price Simulations

Resources • Tacoma’s Current Portfolio

Analysis Framework

• Portfolio Performance Metrics

• Preliminary Scenarios of the Future

Please complete our online survey to weigh in on scenarios of the future!

Nex

t St

eps

and

Act

ion

Item

s

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integrated resource plan public workshop 1...public comment opportunities inside & outside of...

Documents