integrated program assessment status 28 february 2008
DESCRIPTION
Air Armament Center. Integrated Program Assessment Status 28 February 2008. Mr. Deryl Israel AAC/EN. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A : Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Outline. Integrated Assessment (IA) Update IA purpose & background Progress since 2007 Industry Day - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Air Armament CenterAir Armament Center
Mr. Deryl IsraelAAC/EN
Integrated Program Integrated Program
Assessment StatusAssessment Status
28 February 2008 28 February 2008
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Outline
• Integrated Assessment (IA) Update IA purpose & backgroundProgress since 2007 Industry Day
• Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) summaryFY06-07 activity & resultsLessons learned: How to do better SRsLessons learned: How to build better programs
• Way Ahead: Plans for 2008
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Assessment Purpose & Background
• Historically, Eglin programs haveCost overruns of 15%-30% Schedule slips of 6-12 months
• Since FY06, deployed and integrated a suite of assessments to execute AAC’s vision--War-winning capabilities… on time, on cost
• Intent is to create and maintain a high-confidence portfolio
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
High-Confidence ProgramsKey Characteristics*
* As Defined by D&SWS design teams
• Good “Should-Cost” Estimate
• Budget/Cost Estimate alignment
• Approved time-phased CDD requirements
• Program office resourcing
• Requirements stability
• Budget stability mechanism
• Incremental program plan
• Short-duration capability release/production schedules
• SDD phase no greater than 6 years
• Tech / manufacturing maturity assessment thresholds met
• Integrated sustainment and depot strategy
• Realistic test planning, Approved IOT&E plan
• Life-cycle acquisition strategy—time certain success incentive
• Executing according to “plan”
• Probability of Program Success (PoPS) measures
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
AFPEO/WP Policy, 23 May 07AAC Integrated Assessments
• These assessments will help us collaborate with our government stakeholders and industry to improve our acquisition processes and align expectations.
• AAC acquisition commanders/directors must effectively employ the assessments during program planning and execution
• Assessment leaders will provide results to the PEO/Deputy PEO, Weapons; commanders or directors of appropriate AAC line units; and the AAC Center Senior Functional owning the assessment being reported.
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
LogisticsHealth
Assessment(LHA)
CostSufficiency
Review(CSR)
Systems Engineering Assessment
(SEA)
ProgramSufficiency
Review(PSR)
TechnologyReadiness & IntegrationAssessment
(TRA)
Probability of Program
Success(PoPS)
Spiral 2 Assessment Engine I
NP
UT
S (
FR
OM
ST
D A
AC
PR
OD
UC
TS
)
Rollout Spring
‘08
ManufacturingReadiness
Assessment(MRA)
Probability of Program
Success(PoPS)
LogisticsHealth
Assessment(LHA)
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
AAC Assessment Life Cycle
CSR
PSR
POM Input MS A MS B MS C Sustainment
PSR(As Required)
MonthlyUpdated
QuarterlyUpdated
TRA’/MRA’
PSR
TRA/MRA’
CSR
SEA
PoPS
PSR
TRA/MRA’
CSR
PoPS
LHA
PoPS
MRA/TRA’(As Required)
CSR(As Required)
SEA
MonthlyUpdated
PoPS
SEA
LHA
PSR
LHA
MRA/TRA’
CSR
SEA
PoPS
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Progress Since 2007 Industry Day
• Probability of Program Success (PoPS) Consistent monthly updates in SMART Internal audits drive process compliance
• Cost Sufficiency Review Earlier collaboration between staff & programs
• Manufacturing Readiness Assessment Updated guide published 30 Nov 07
• Logistics Health Assessment Increment 1 design complete; approved by AFMC/A4 Increment 2 design to include Pre MS B coverage
• Sufficiency Reviews Co-chaired by AAC/EN, 308th ARSW/CL PoPS-based template; promotes standard work Action item status reported at program reviews
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On CostO N D J F M A M J J A S
AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS
AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS
Realistic Realistic, Carries Risk
FY06 AAC Sufficiency ReviewsFY06 AAC Sufficiency Reviews
COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS
NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS
AAC Totals 20 (13 7 )
G / None
1 2 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 0 2 3
Canceled- major redesign req’d
Contract award: FY10Plan presented at EWSR
AAC/CA Approved Prod
Y / None
User did not include in POM
PDRR on track; JCTD starts FY08
Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes
G / NoneUser requirement withdrawn
Canceled- producibility issues
R / None / FY08 funding issue
Concept provided to SECAFConcept provided to AFSOCConcept provided to ACCConcept provided to ACCAssessment sent to AFMC/CCConcept provided to SOCOMConcept provided to AFSOC
Focused Lethality MunitionWind-Correct Mun Disp-Ext RangeLaser JDAMCovert Resupply (COVERS)BLU-122 Rebaseline
AMRAAM FY08 POMMALD SDD RebaselineAMRAAM RebaselineAir Superiority Target FY08 POMMALD Universal Armament Interface
Munition Assy Conveyor II MS C
ALM MK82 DIMEVery Small MunitionTactical Laser for Airfield DefenseI-500 PenetratorSmall Concept Weapon on PredatorAdaptive Carriage EnterpriseClose Air Support WeaponsHd Tgt Void Sens Fuze Risk Reduct
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On CostO N D J F M A M J J A S
AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS
AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes
Realistic Realistic, Carries Risk
FY07 AAC Sufficiency ReviewsFY07 AAC Sufficiency Reviews
COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS
NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS
AAC Totals 22 (6 16 )
G / None
3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 2
R / None – Awaiting N-M decisionR / None – Awaiting N-M decision
User requirement withdrawn
G / None
Contract award: FY08
Contract award: FY10
AoA eliminated concept
PDRR Contract award: FY10G / None
G / None
G / NoneG / None
G / NoneG / None
Prototype effort: on track
Extended User EvalJCTDUser requirement withdrawnFY08 JCTD; SDD start: FY10
AMSTE-JDAMJASSM-ER RestructureJASSM Maritime InterdictionJDAM ProductionLaser JDAMSDB II Cost (prior to DoD CAIG rvw)SFW Production FY10 POM
AST Business Jet AoAMALD-J SDDAST QF-16 Update
CRIIS Rapid PrototypeJoint Threat EmitterCRIIS Risk Reduction & SDDP5 Combat Training SystemAutomated Remote Transport SysCRIIS Test & Training
Adv Tactical Laser Ext User EvalHard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze JCTDMassive Ordnance Penetrator QRCHard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
AAC Portfolio Performance
2006 Overall Program Health
13
11
89
1112 12
14
1211 11
12
6
7
98
87
6
5
67
87
01
2 21 1
32
3 32 2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months Red ProgramsYellow ProgramsGreen ProgramsProgram Rebaselines: 3
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
2007 Overall Program Health
1011 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
12 12 12
54 4
34 4 4 4 4 2 2 2
1 1 12
1 1 1 1 12 2 2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MonthsRed ProgramsYellow ProgramsGreen Programs
AAC Portfolio Performance
Program Rebaselines: 2
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Lessons LearnedHow to do better Sufficiency Reviews
Do:• Employ cross-functional approach when completing assessments• Use proper versions of process guides/tools (e.g. PoPS spreadsheet)• Conduct sufficient “deep dives” into appropriate individual assessments• Address weaponeering & mission planning across entire life cycle• Present efficient and effective test plans built with CTA & RTO inputs• Incentivize supplier decision processes when transitioning to production • Identify opportunities to validate manufacturing processes• Carefully select cost/schedule benchmarks• Conduct thorough Cost SRs prior to Program SRs• Use PoPS results in Program SRs to identify, communicate risks
Don’t:• Assume all AAC programs will be low-risk efforts • Over-optimistically evaluate programs• View Cost and Program SRs as the IG; they are home team help
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Assessments Becoming AF Tools
• AAC leaders assigned to AFSO21 Develop & Sustain Warfighting Systems (D&SWS) teams
Ms Stokley, AAC/CA, co-sponsored Life Cycle Management; Oversight/Command & Control teams
Ms Rutledge, 708ARSG/CL; Mr Mistretta, AAC/EN; Tech Development team Mr Walley, 918ARSG/DD; Life Cycle Management team
• Assessments endorsed by AFMC/CC; SAF/AQ to create & maintain high-confidence programs
PoPS: key risk management tool & metric TRAs/MRAs: enable “stage gating” milestones SEA: moving toward AFMC-wide application LHA: Sponsored by AFMC/A4 Sufficiency Reviews: req’d at key decision points AF-level Implementation planning now underway
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Building Better ProgramsAttaining High Confidence
* Proposed by D&SWS design teams
• Better transition planning, decisions via technology and manufacturing assessments, PoPS, Pre-MS B risk reduction phase*
• Iterative requirements that evolve, provide trade space prior to MS B*
• Stable requirements for a given increment*• Realistic resourcing ($$ and people)*• Risk-based source selections*• Strong, consistent Systems Engineering processes*• Incremental development w/ discrete offramps*• Incentivize sustainment (affordability/availability)*• Proactive risk management*• Early, active test community involvement in test planning• Up-front weaponeering & mission planning—and resources
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Way Ahead: 2008 Plans
• Share AAC processes/lessons learned via D&SWS Enable running start at other centers Facilitate PoPS training at other Centers Personnel from other Centers attend AAC IA events
• Design LHA Increment 2 (supports pre-MS B efforts)• Align AAC IA improvements with D&SWS
Integrate near-term AFMC; SAF/AQ decisions Minimize scrap & rework as AF standards adopted Continue process standardization
• Leverage assessments to streamline doc prep Summarize key results in AAC Expectation Mgt Agreements Use assessment products to streamline Life Cycle Mgt Plan
creation/updates via Zero Based Documentation pilots