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Integrated modelling of the future electricity and gas supply in Germany
5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems, Copenhagen, 10-11 September 2019
Hans Christian Gils, Hedda Gardian
German Aerospace Center (DLR)Energy Systems Analysis
Research interest
• Evaluation of flexibility in integrated and sustainable energy systems• In MuSeKo: Contribution of synthetic gases to the system transformation
• Importance of flexibility in the production of these gases• Interaction with other flexibility options• Identification of the least-cost dimensioning of converters and storages • Analysis of the flexibility of the electrical equipment in the gas network
DLR.de • Chart 2
Source: Schick, C. et al. (2018) Energiesystemanalyse Baden-Württemberg. Project report, http://www.strise.de/projekte/
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
REMix energy system model
• Cost-minimizing model from an economic planner’s perspective• Hourly resolution, typically perfect foresight for one year (8760 time steps)• Simultaneous optimization of plant expansion and operation
Source: Gils, H.C, Scholz, Y., Pregger, T., Luca de Tena, D., Heide, D. (2017) Integrated modelling of variable renewable energy-based power supply in Europe. Energy, 123: 173-188. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.115
DLR.de • Chart 3 > 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Evaluation of flexible energy sector coupling with REMix
DLR.de • Chart 4 > 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
REMix enhancement for the gas sector
• Goal: reduced, linearized representation of the gas sector • Consideration of chemical energy only• No consideration of the gas composition• Aggregation according to model regions
• Modular structure for flexible combination of technologies • Generic modules representing similar technologies• Simplified modelling of gas transport between the model regions• Compression in pipelines and storages with gas or electricity (endogenous)• Optional feeding of hydrogen and biogas into the natural gas system
DLR.de • Chart 5 > 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Data basis for the gas system modelling in MuSeKo
• Salt domes for CH4 or H2 storage• Data on existing assets: storage locations and capacities• Evaluation of gas transport capacities• Assumption of reversible flows• Compressor capacities from literature and inquiries
DLR.de • Chart 6 > 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
REMix configuration in MuSeKo
• Myopic application: 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050• Capacity installation transferred to subsequent years• Decommissioning at end of lifetime• No construction time
• Consideration of existing capacities:• Power/Gas network and storage • Wind/PV capacity w/o decommissioning• CHP/conventional capacity w/ decommissioning
• Capacity optimisation of RE, gas power plants, CHP and electricity storage• Capacity optimisation of flexible sector coupling• Limited power grid expansion only from 2040 on
DLR.de • Chart 7 > 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Scenarios in MuSeKo
DLR.de • Chart 8
THG80 (80% CO2 reduction) THG95 (95% CO2 reduction)
• Exogenously defined demand for power, CH4, H2 and heat• Exogenously defined fuel and CO2 emissions costs
• Higher CO2 emission costs• Increased power and H2 demand
in transport and heat sectors
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Development of power supply 2020 – 2050
DLR.de • Chart 9
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Load balancing through various flexibility options
DLR.de • Chart 10
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Development of the gas sector in Germany
DLR.de • Chart 11
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
20502040203020202050204020302020
GHG
95
GHG
80
Capacity/Storage Size in GW/TWh
Electrolyzer
Methanation
H2-Cavern
H2-Grid
H2-Tankstorage
CH4-Grid
CH4-Cavern
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Balancing of weekly fluctuations
DLR.de • Chart 12
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
• High volatility in hydrogen (and methane) production
• Residual CHP operation driven by industrial demand
• Thermal energy storage buffers wind generation peaks
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Balancing of seasonal fluctuations
DLR.de • Chart 13
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
• Seasonal hydrogen storage becomes relevant in THG 95
• Heat pumps provide base load for district heating in winter
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Summary
• Integrated consideration of all sector coupling options desirable
• Simplified representation of the gas sector improves analysis capabilities
• Options of flexible sector coupling interact positively with each other
• Flexible H2 production can make a significant contribution to RE balancing
• Partial conversion of natural gas infrastructure to H2 is an attractive option
• Methanation and seasonal storage become relevant in THG 95 scenario
DLR.de • Chart 14 > 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
KontaktDr. Hans Christian Gils, Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR)Pfaffenwaldring 38-40 | 70569 Stuttgart | Germany Telefon +49 711 6862-477 | [email protected] | www.DLR.de/tt
This presentation is based on results of the project “Modellbasierte Analyse der Integration erneuerbarer Stromerzeugung durch die Kopplung der Stromversorgung mit dem Wärme-, Gas- und Verkehrssektor“ (MuSeKo) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) under grant number FKZ: 03ET4038B.
Transformation of district heat supply
DLR.de • Chart 16
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Synthetic fuel production (GHG 95)
DLR.de • Chart 17
0
50
100
150
200
0
2
4
6
8
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Mar
gina
l ele
ctric
ity p
rice
in €
/MW
h
Fuel
Pro
duct
ion
in G
W
Electrolyzer Methanation
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019
Behaviour of gas sector components
DLR.de • Chart 18
Preliminary results: do not cite or distribute
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
H 2-st
orag
e le
veli
n G
Wh
Hour of the year
GHG 80GHG 95
> 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems > Hans Christian Gils • Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 11.09.2019