integrated assessments: using cmaq/camx to evaluate health impacts of air pollution in the united...
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Integrated Assessments: Integrated Assessments: Using CMAQ/CAMx to Evaluate Using CMAQ/CAMx to Evaluate
Health Impacts of Air Pollution in Health Impacts of Air Pollution in the United States and Chinathe United States and China
Denise L. MauzerallDenise L. MauzerallXiaoping WangXiaoping WangQuansong TongQuansong Tong
Science, Technology and Environmental Policy programScience, Technology and Environmental Policy programWoodrow Wilson SchoolWoodrow Wilson School
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University
Presented at Models-3 Workshop, RTP, NC, Oct. 28, 2003
Overall ObjectivesOverall Objectives
Utilize science to inform air quality policyUtilize science to inform air quality policyMethodology: Methodology: – Use atmospheric modeling and available data to Use atmospheric modeling and available data to
describe air qualitydescribe air quality– Evaluate impacts of air pollution on human health and Evaluate impacts of air pollution on human health and
agriculture using exposure-response functions from agriculture using exposure-response functions from literatureliterature
– Monetize the costs of the impactsMonetize the costs of the impacts– Examine alternative energy/pollution control Examine alternative energy/pollution control
technologies and policies for optimal cost-effective air technologies and policies for optimal cost-effective air quality control strategies quality control strategies
Ongoing Integrated Assessment Projects Ongoing Integrated Assessment Projects
at Princeton Using Models-3/CMAQat Princeton Using Models-3/CMAQ
Evaluate effectiveness of the current NOEvaluate effectiveness of the current NOxx emissions cap-and-trade program in the North-emissions cap-and-trade program in the North-Eastern United States on reducing surface OEastern United States on reducing surface O33 levels and resulting health effects. levels and resulting health effects.
Evaluate impact of air pollution on health in the Evaluate impact of air pollution on health in the Shandong region of China.Shandong region of China.
Evaluate long-term impacts of air pollution on Evaluate long-term impacts of air pollution on health and the environment in the United States.health and the environment in the United States.
Integrated Assessment ApproachIntegrated Assessment Approach
Technology
Pollutant Emissions
Ambient Concentrations
Human Exposure
Health Effects
Social Benefits
SMOKE
Epidemiological Exposure-Response
Functions
MM5 / RAMS
CMAQ / CAMx
Population Distribution
Economic Analysis
Policy ControlOptions
Charging NOx Emitters for Health Damages:Charging NOx Emitters for Health Damages:An Exploratory AnalysisAn Exploratory Analysis
Denise L. Mauzerall, Denise L. Mauzerall,
Babar Sultan, David BradfordBabar Sultan, David Bradford
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University
OutlineOutline
Description of NODescription of NOxx Emissions Trading in NE United States Emissions Trading in NE United States
Evidence that NOEvidence that NOxx Cap-and-Trade program has failed to Cap-and-Trade program has failed to reduce surface Oreduce surface O33 concentrations concentrations
Free trades permitted between May – September Free trades permitted between May – September regardless of: regardless of: – temperature variability temperature variability – Biogenic hydrocarbon emissionsBiogenic hydrocarbon emissions– Population densityPopulation density
Modeling to answer questions of how OModeling to answer questions of how O33 production and production and mortalities changes with:mortalities changes with:– high / low temperatures on the days of NOhigh / low temperatures on the days of NOxx emission? emission?– Regions of high / low isoprene emission? Regions of high / low isoprene emission? – Regions of high / low population density?Regions of high / low population density?
OTC NOx Budget Cap and Trade ProgramOTC NOx Budget Cap and Trade Program
Goal:Goal: Reduce summer NOx emissions within 13 north-eastern Reduce summer NOx emissions within 13 north-eastern U.S. states in order to attain NAAQS for surface OU.S. states in order to attain NAAQS for surface O3 3 (85 ppb (85 ppb over 8-hour average).over 8-hour average).
Regulatory Approach:Regulatory Approach: – Limit total Limit total NOxNOx emissions from stationary sources such as emissions from stationary sources such as
power plants and industrial boilers, but permit trading power plants and industrial boilers, but permit trading among emission sources.among emission sources.
– Program capped summertime NOx emissions in 1999 at Program capped summertime NOx emissions in 1999 at less than half of the 1990 baseline emissions of 490,000 less than half of the 1990 baseline emissions of 490,000 tons.tons.
Question:Question: Do O Do O33 concentrations in the region decrease after concentrations in the region decrease after the emissions cap-and-trade program is put in place in the emissions cap-and-trade program is put in place in summer 1999?summer 1999?
EPA-AIRS O3 Data
In 13 eastern U.S.OTC states May - September
Black = 1995-1998 (pre-cap)
Red = 1999-2001 (post-cap)
There is no significant reduction in O3
concentrations after the cap-and-trade program isin place!
Modeling AnalysisModeling Analysis
For each scenario, two CAMx simulations are For each scenario, two CAMx simulations are conducted for July 7-18, 1995:conducted for July 7-18, 1995:– Standard simulation with all regional emissions.Standard simulation with all regional emissions.– Perturbation simulations (NOx emissions from Perturbation simulations (NOx emissions from
individual power plants are reduced by a fixed amount) individual power plants are reduced by a fixed amount) during conditions of:during conditions of:
high/low temperature, high/low temperature, high/low isoprene, high/low isoprene, High/low population.High/low population.
CalculateCalculateOO33 resulting from difference between resulting from difference between standard run and each perturbation run standard run and each perturbation run Estimate change in mortality resulting from Estimate change in mortality resulting from change of Ochange of O33 distribution and exposed distribution and exposed population. population.
NOx emissions = 1.77 x 106 moles from one power plant in 24-hours results in the following change in O3 concentration and mortalities.Mean Temp = 302 K +/- 3.6 K (83.5 F)
High Temperature Period
Total O3 increase = 36 ppb Total Increase in Mortality = 0.17
NOx emissions = 1.77 x 106 moles from one power plant in 24-hours results in the following change in O3 concentration and mortalities.Mean Temp = 296 K +/- 4.3 K (72 F)
Low Temperature Period
Total O3 increase = 22 ppb Total Increase in Mortality = 0.0
NOx emissions = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx from one power plant in 24-hours results in the following change in O3 concentration and mortalities.
High Isoprene Emission Region
Total O3 increase = 170 ppb Total Increase in Mortality = 0.13
Change in O3 concentration andresulting change in Mortality for unit change in NOx emissions from a single power plant in 24-hours.
NOx = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx.
Low Isoprene Emission Region
Total O3 increase = 46 ppbTotal Increase in Mortality = 0.09
Change in O3 concentration andresulting change in Mortality for unit change in NOx emissions from a single power plant in 24-hours.
NOx = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx
High Population Region
Total O3 increase = 40 ppb Total Increase in Mortalities = 0.21
Change in O3 concentration andresulting change in Mortality for unit change in NOx emissions from a single power plant in 24-hours.
NOx = 1.77 x 106 moles NOx
Low Population Region
Total O3 increase = 121 ppb Total Increase in Mortalities = 0.19
Conclusions on Emissions TradingConclusions on Emissions Trading
NOx emissions in locations of high temperature NOx emissions in locations of high temperature and high isoprene emissions result in higher Oand high isoprene emissions result in higher O33 concentrations.concentrations.
NOx emissions near regions of high population NOx emissions near regions of high population result in greater mortalities.result in greater mortalities.
Controls on temporal and spatial location of NOx Controls on temporal and spatial location of NOx emissions are critical, even within the May-emissions are critical, even within the May-September OSeptember O33 season, to reduce damage season, to reduce damage resulting from increased Oresulting from increased O33 concentrations. concentrations.
Future WorkFuture Work
Estimate economic costs of mortalities and Estimate economic costs of mortalities and morbiditymorbidityEvaluate feasibility of: Evaluate feasibility of: – charging emitters for the damage they cause charging emitters for the damage they cause – adjusting number of pollution permits available in adjusting number of pollution permits available in
locations of high ozone production potential and large locations of high ozone production potential and large population density.population density.
Examine ability of chemical weather forecasting Examine ability of chemical weather forecasting system to predict future damage from emissions system to predict future damage from emissions so that emitters may adjust their emissions to so that emitters may adjust their emissions to minimize their total costs.minimize their total costs.
Evaluating Adverse Health Impacts of Air Evaluating Adverse Health Impacts of Air Pollution in Eastern China-- Pollution in Eastern China--
the Price of Clean Airthe Price of Clean Air
Xiaoping Wang, Denise MauzerallPrinceton University
Yongtao Hu, Armistead RussellGeorgia Institute of Technology
Questions to be addressedQuestions to be addressed
How much health damage does current air pollution How much health damage does current air pollution cause in eastern China based on year 2000 emissions cause in eastern China based on year 2000 emissions using conventional energy technologies? using conventional energy technologies?
To what extent can alternative energy and pollution To what extent can alternative energy and pollution control technologies mitigate air pollution damage to control technologies mitigate air pollution damage to human health? human health?
What are the conditions and constraints for China to What are the conditions and constraints for China to adopt a coal gasification-based energy system in both adopt a coal gasification-based energy system in both the near- and long- term? the near- and long- term?
Integrated Assessment ApproachIntegrated Assessment Approach
Link emissions from a particular energy end-use sector/activity Link emissions from a particular energy end-use sector/activity to the health effects. to the health effects.
Four parts: Four parts:
I. Develop high-resolution regional anthropogenic emission I. Develop high-resolution regional anthropogenic emission inventory inventory
II. Simulate ambient concentrations of PM and gaseous species, II. Simulate ambient concentrations of PM and gaseous species, including secondary PM using Models-3/CMAQincluding secondary PM using Models-3/CMAQ
III. Estimate physical health impacts associated with air pollution III. Estimate physical health impacts associated with air pollution exposureexposureIV. Quantify costs resulting from health effects of ambient air IV. Quantify costs resulting from health effects of ambient air pollution exposurepollution exposure
PART I
Emission Inventory Development
Emission Inventory (1)
8 species(j): CO, NH3, SO2,NOx,PM10,PM2.5,NMVOC,CO2 87 municipalities (k), 72 source categories (l*m*n)
EFAE nmlkjnmlkjnmlkj * ,,,,,,,,,,,, E—emissions A—activity rateEF—emission factor j—species k—municipality l—sector m—fuel or activity typen—abatement technology
Emission Inventory (2)
Emissions by SectorEmissions by Sector
II Model Simulations
Model Boundary and Location of the Case Region
CMAQ domains (solid squares) and MM5 domains (dashed squares)
Core region
Model configurationModel configuration
Map projectionMap projection: Lambert Conformal, central meridian: 116: Lambert Conformal, central meridian: 116ºº, , latitude of origin: 35latitude of origin: 35ºº, 1st standard parallel: 25, 1st standard parallel: 25ºº, 2nd standard , 2nd standard parallel: 47parallel: 47ºº
Model domainsModel domains: two with 12km and 36km resolutions: two with 12km and 36km resolutions
MM5MM5: 54 * 54 grid cells for the 36km domain, 60*72 grid cells : 54 * 54 grid cells for the 36km domain, 60*72 grid cells for the 12km domain, 34 vertical layers from surface to 100mbfor the 12km domain, 34 vertical layers from surface to 100mb
SMOKE and CMAQSMOKE and CMAQ: 48*48 grid cells for the 36km domain, : 48*48 grid cells for the 36km domain, 54*66 grid cells for the 12km domain, 13 vertical layers54*66 grid cells for the 12km domain, 13 vertical layers
Carbon Bond 4 – ae3 – aq chemical mechanism Carbon Bond 4 – ae3 – aq chemical mechanism
Running periods: January, April, July, and October 2-18, 2000.Running periods: January, April, July, and October 2-18, 2000.
Midnight 1pm
1) Mobile
2) Area
3) Total
Emissions 4/8/2000
Air Temp
Wind
ASO4
Midnight 1pm4/8/2000
Comparison of Simulated Concentrations with Observations
PART III Health Impact AnalysisPART III Health Impact Analysis
Methods for Health Impact AnalysisMethods for Health Impact Analysis
cases = Icases = Iref ref * Pop* [exp (* Pop* [exp (**c)-1] c)-1]
Cases = annual change in mortalities or morbidities Cases = annual change in mortalities or morbidities resulting from air pollution exposureresulting from air pollution exposure
IIrefref = annual baseline mortality /morbidity rate = annual baseline mortality /morbidity rate
Pop = size of affected populationPop = size of affected population
= relative risk per unit change in concentrations = relative risk per unit change in concentrations
c = annual change in ambient concentrationsc = annual change in ambient concentrations
Changes in PM2.5 and mortality associated with anthro emissions
Population PM2.5 in 2000
Chronic mortality associated with PM2.5
Domain Population: 281 million
Total PM2.5-related chronic mortality: 840,000 deaths
PM2.5-related chronic mortality by sectorPM2.5-related chronic mortality by sector
Further WorkFurther Work
A.A. Conduct an economic analysisConduct an economic analysis
B.B. Construct two alternative energy technology Construct two alternative energy technology and emission scenarios for the year 2020 in and emission scenarios for the year 2020 in the study regionthe study region
C.C. Conduct a sensitivity analysis for health Conduct a sensitivity analysis for health impacts to various input variables such as impacts to various input variables such as emissions and exposure-response coefficientsemissions and exposure-response coefficients
SummarySummary
Developed an anthropogenic emission inventory for the Developed an anthropogenic emission inventory for the Shandong region of China.Shandong region of China.Conducted MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ simulations and comparison Conducted MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ simulations and comparison of calculated and observed pollutant concentrations for the of calculated and observed pollutant concentrations for the regionregionCalculated health damages associated with the year 2000 Calculated health damages associated with the year 2000 pollution levelspollution levelsDemonstrated the benefit of using an integrated approach for Demonstrated the benefit of using an integrated approach for examining the environmental externalities associated with examining the environmental externalities associated with human activities human activities
Will examine potential gains in health benefits by adopting Will examine potential gains in health benefits by adopting advanced, cleaner energy technologies in 2020advanced, cleaner energy technologies in 2020
Stay Tuned!
An Integrated Assessment Model:Architecture, Development and
Application
Quansong Tong and Denise MauzerallPrinceton University
Robert MendelsohnYale University
Presented at CMAS Models-3 Workshop, RTP, NC, Oct. 28, 2003
Overall Objectives
• Quantify the damage caused by air pollution over the continental U.S.
• Monetize these damages so that their impact can be included in national economic accounting.
• Develop a user-friendly integrated assessment model for community use.
Strategy Design Module
Emission Module
Health ModulePopulation
& Dose Response
Chemistry Transport Module
Meteorology Module
Socio-economic Module
Reanalysis Visualization
Model Framework
Integrated Assessment Model:Model Flow Chart
Strategy
Design
Module
Meteorology
Module
Emission
Module
Chemical
Transport
Module
Health
Module
Economic
Valuation
Module
Input Output
For streamline above,
Provide interface to utilize state-of-the-art models
Develop needed additional modules based on literature review
• Emission Module: SMOKE version 1.5
• Meteorology module: MM5 version 3.5
• Chemical transport module: CMAQ 4.3
• Health module: Under construction
• Economic module: Yale Microeconomics
• Others: SAS/S-Plus, arcGIS, JSP/ Servlet container, etc.
Current Model Components
Health Module
Current version includes an exposure response function for O3;
PM2.5 and SO2 exposure-response functions are being added;Plan to include estimates of visibility losses, material damage, ecosystem losses, and crop losses in future versions.
Chemical Transport Module Output
Population Census
Mortality and
Morbidity
Exposure
Dose Response
GIS Information
32-node Beowulf Linux cluster 2 x 2.4 GHz / 512K cache Xeon; 2GB DDR, 200 MHz RAM 1 TB SCSI hard disks; 1 fast-Ethernet and 2 Gigabit switches
Portland and Intel Fortran/C/C++ compiler
MPICH/PVM compiled with PGF/Intel
openPBS job scheduler
MPIEXEC workload manager
Hardware & Software
Scalability Analysis
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538
657
736
845
1081
1326
0
200
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600
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1200
1400
1 2 3* 4 6 8 10 12 16 20
Number of Processors
Ru
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ec)
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5000
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25000
30000
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# o
f C
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Runtime Runtime x NP
Distributed to 3 nodes
1 node
3 nodes
Integrated Assessment Model
Hardware/Software Approach
Validation
Filter
Jobs Submission
Online Strategy Design
HTTP Server
Master Node
Dynamic Workload Generator
User Database
Scheduler &
Workload Manager
Bulk Computation
Beowulf Cluster
Model
Outpu
t
Analysis Tools
User Database
Intermediate Final Results
Integrated Modeling System
Potential Benefits to the Community
A platform to bridge different scientific disciplines with end-users outsides the community;
Make use of state of the art models provided from different scientific communities;
Provide the full functions to users without locally installing the system.
User friendly and transparent to those not model experts;
Centralized data storage and better utilization of model data;
Enhanced concept of “One-Community” modeling!
Summary / Future DirectionsSummary / Future Directions
We have incorporated the latest research from We have incorporated the latest research from atmospheric science, epidemiology and economics into atmospheric science, epidemiology and economics into an integrated framework useful for informing policy.an integrated framework useful for informing policy.
Plan to make the integrated assessment modeling Plan to make the integrated assessment modeling system more user-friendly and flexible to facilitate system more user-friendly and flexible to facilitate additional applications.additional applications.
Potentially make the model available for use by the Potentially make the model available for use by the community.community.
Challenge is to minimize uncertainties involved in Challenge is to minimize uncertainties involved in individual model components in order to maximize the individual model components in order to maximize the utility of the coupled integrated assessment model.utility of the coupled integrated assessment model.