integrated assessment contribution to twi 2050 - · pdf fileintegrated assessment contribution...

Integrated Assessment Contribution to TWI 2050

The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Interactive Science Meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 10-12 March 2015

Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology

Strategic objective of TWI2050 initiative

The World in 2050 project will explore the design of sustainable development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic and social development within planetary boundaries

2015 #3 Nakicenovic

Mob

ility

CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.

“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development

Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms

Distribution of the Global Population

Source: WBGU, 2014

Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)

2015 #4 Nakicenovic

Mob

ility





Source: WBGU, 2014


2015 #5 Nakicenovic

B

Mob

ility





Source: WBGU, 2014


2015 #6 Nakicenovic

B

Mob

ility


Unsustainable Development



Source: WBGU, 2014


“Safe Space”

2015 #7 Nakicenovic

The World in 2050 Ü  How to secure global development within a safe

and just operating space

Ü  Planetary boundaries: e.g. Food; Water; Energy; Biodiversity; Climate Change

Ü  “Safe Space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives to integrated models

Ü  Transformational and BAU scenarios based on existing literature e.g. SSPs, GEA, DDPP

Ü  Multiple-benefits of transformational pathways toward the “safe space” compared to BAU

2015 #8 Nakicenovic

Possible Unified Analytical Approach

Ultimate Drivers

Knowledge and Understanding

Power Structure

Culture Values and Needs

Proximate Drivers

Population Economy Technology Governance

Source: Paul Raskin, 2002

Scenario Narratives

Integrated Models

2015 #9 Nakicenovic

Historical (UN)

IIASA SRES B1 scenario


IIASA SRES A2r scenario

Urbanization World

Source: Grubler et al. 2012

Pop

ulat

ion

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

2015 #10 Nakicenovic

Historical (UN)



IIASA SRES A2r scenario

Urbanization World, UK, BRICs

UK

BRICs

Pop

ulat

ion

Source: Grubler et al. 2012

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Primary Education+

Secondary Education+

Global Educational Attainment

Source: Lutz et al., 2007

Pop

ulat

ion

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Participatory Governance

Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010

Participatory

Pop

ulat

ion

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment

Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012;

Participatory

Abolishment

1863 United States

of America

1906 China

1948 UN Declaration

of Human Rights

Pop

ulat

ion

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 #14 Nakicenovic 2015 #14 Nakicenovic

Cumulative Carbon Emissions

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6



1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6


Net-negative emissions


Legitimacy of BAU eroding

Vision: Sustainable Future → Growing number of

actors of change: •  green businesses •  cities •  civil society •  science •  IGOs (eg, GEF, UNIDO)

Sustainability Transformation “Doing More with Less” within (Planetary) Boundaries

Time

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

Source: WBGU, 2011

→ Increasing problem perception

→ Policy regimes

→ Values and norms


Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation costs

Source: IPCC, Figure 6.33 and TS


Water

Food Energy

IIASA-GEF Nexus Research Partnership

2015 #20 Nakicenovic 2015 #20 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

MikrochipKommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

VakuumröhreOttomotor

Elektrischer Motor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear-energie

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution


EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

Nuclear phase-out (policy)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Einsparungen Andere E Nuklear Gas Öl Kohle Biomasse

Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear

Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

~55% renewables by 2030


Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Global Water Withdrawals no CCS, no Nuclear

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Source: Fricko et al, 2014


EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas


Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway


EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2


Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas


Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway


Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2


Source: Fricko et al, 2014

Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway


Science for Transformation ●  Better integration across science communities

“Climate or development first” approach too narrow ● More integrated & holistic assessment of climate

change policy in the context of other priorities: – Multi-objective & multi-policy framing to better

understand climate policy tradeoffs & benefits –  “Nexus” approaches to reach multiple objectives

simultaneously: energy, water, food & urbanization ●  Challenges are huge:

– Different constraints and priorities across scales – Normative goals involved in policy prioritization

Source: Nakicenovic & Riahi, 2014

THANK YOU

[email protected]

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