NOTE

This edition of "Living with Risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives" is a preliminary version of afinal publication, which will be published early 2003. The final revised version will consider comments receivedand will track further developments in risk and disaster reduction thinking. It will also elaborate more on thoseregions not fully addressed in this preliminary issue. It will propose a systematic and continuing process to moni-tor progress in this field. Comments, corrections and additional information are all welcomed and can be sent tothe ISDR Secretariat by 30 September, 2002, for them to be considered. Related information is available on a ref-erence database maintained by the ISDR Secretariat, and soon available online at: www.unisdr.org

The final version will contain a full thematic index, yet not available.

Please send comments and feedback to the ISDR Secretariat: isdr@un.org or molinvaldes@un.org, or by mail tothe ISDR Secretariat (see address below).

This publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement of the source is requested. The ISDR Secretariat would like to encourage the full utilization of this review and would appreciate

receiving a copy of any publication containing quotation or reprint of material from this report.

DISCLAIMERThe views expressed in this publication are those of the review team and do not necessarily

reflect the views of the United Nations Secretariat.

The designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the UN Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country,

territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Copyright © United Nations, 2002.All rights reserved.

Geneva, Switzerland.

United NationsInter-Agency Secretariat

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)Palais des Nations

CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerlandisdr@un.org

www.unisdr.orgTel: (41-22) 917-2759Fax: (41-22) 917-0563

Cover design: Mario BarrantesBased on the World Map of Natural Hazards, by MünichRe

Table of ContentsAcknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

CChhaapptteerr 11 LLiivviinngg wwiitthh rriisskk - ffooccuuss oonn ddiissaasstteerr rriisskk rreedduuccttiioonn .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..991.1 Setting the scene - understanding disaster risk reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111.2 Contexts and processes linked to disaster risk reduction: sustainable development . . . . . . .26

CChhaapptteerr 22 RRiisskk aawwaarreenneessss aanndd aasssseessssmmeenntt .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..33992.1 Understanding the nature of risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .412.2 Emerging trends in disaster impact, hazards and vulnerability patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .482.3 Risk assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66

CChhaapptteerr 33 PPoolliiccyy aanndd ppuubblliicc ccoommmmiittmmeenntt:: tthhee ffoouunnddaattiioonn ooff ddiissaasstteerr rriisskk rreedduuccttiioonn .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..77993.1 Institutional frameworks: Policy, legislation and organizational development for

national and local decision-making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .813.2 Regional cooperation, interaction and experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1133.3 Community action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141

CChhaapptteerr 44 BBuuiillddiinngg uunnddeerrssttaannddiinngg:: ddeevveellooppmmeenntt ooff kknnoowwlleeddggee aanndd iinnffoorrmmaattiioonn sshhaarriinngg .. .. .. ..1155334.1 Information management and communication of experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1554.2 Education and training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1784.3 Public awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .188

CChhaapptteerr 55 AA sseelleeccttiioonn ooff ddiissaasstteerr rreedduuccttiioonn aapppplliiccaattiioonnss .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..2200335.1 Environmental management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2055.2 Land use planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2215.3 Protection of critical facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2315.4 Networking and partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2455.5 Financial and economic tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2535.6 Early warning systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .261

CChhaapptteerr 66 RReellaatteedd iinntteerrnnaattiioonnaall ccoommmmiittmmeennttss aanndd tthhee UUNN rroollee iinn ddiissaasstteerr rriisskk rreedduuccttiioonn .. .. ..2288556.1 Selected international development agendas and commitments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2876.2 UN agencies and scope of activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .301

CChhaapptteerr 77 CChhaalllleennggeess ffoorr tthhee ffuuttuurree .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..332255

AAnnnneexxeess .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..3333551. Terminology: Basic terms of disaster risk reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3372. Directory: International, regional, national and specialized organizations involved in

disaster reduction and related issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3433. List of acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3654. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .375

Additional specific reference are available at the www.unisdr.org website,including the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action and the ISDR background paper for the World Summit on Sustainable Development: Disaster Reduction and Sustainable Development: understanding the

links between vulnerability and risk related to development and environment

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe ISDR Secretariat gratefully acknowledges the many individual and institutional contributions for the global review of dis-aster reduction initiatives received from around the world.

The material in this review was drawn from special ISDR studies carried out by regional partner organizations, solicitedinputs from UN agencies, experts and individuals, and from publicly available information. In addition, a questionnaire wascirculated by the Secretariat to all countries for self-assessment of their institutional and policy development, risk assessmentsand planning for disaster risk reduction. Valuable contributions were also made by members of the Inter-Agency Task Forceon Disaster Reduction. Additional contributions have been provided by participants in the on-line debate, held in preparationfor the World Summit on Sustainable Development, organized by the NGO network Multi Stakeholder Forum for Our Com-mon Future and the ISDR Secretariat during May, 2002 (see: www.earthsummit2002.org).

An Advisory Panel comprising experts from around the world (see below) met twice to provide guidance for the preparationof the report.

FundingSpecial appreciation is extended to the Government of Japan, the Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) and the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO) who kindly contributed funds and resources for the realisation of this project. Addi-tional ISDR resources were drawn from contributions received from the Governments of Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland,Germany, Iceland, the Philippines, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, and from the World Bank.

Regional contributors• Central America: Coordination Center for the Prevention of Natural Disasters in Central America (CEPREDENAC), with

supplementary input from North America• Andean nations: Andean Development Corporation (CAF) Disaster Prevention Programme (PREANDINO), with supple-

mentary input from South America• Caribbean: Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) • Asia: Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) with supplementary input from ADRC, Japan, Iran and Kazakhstan• Pacific island states: South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC)• Southern Africa: Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (DiMP) , University of Cape Town, with sup-

plementary input on the Horn of Africa and North Africa• Central Europe: Central European Disaster Prevention Forum (CEUDIP) • Europe: European Directorate General Joint Research Centre (JRC) with additional contributions from Germany and

Switzerland.

Advisory PanelGerhard Berz , Member of Executive Management, MunichRe, GermanyIan Davis, former Professor at University of Cranfield, UKCorazón de León , former Chair, Civil Service Commission, Government of the PhilippinesClaude de Ville de Goyet, former Chief of the Disaster Preparedness Program, PAHO/WHO, Washington D.C.Robert Hamilton, International Council for Science (ICSU) and National Academies, USA. Isabelle Milbert , Professor, University Institute for Development Studies (IUED), Geneva , SwitzerlandEvans A. Mukolwe , Director Coordinator, Scientific and Technical Programmes, WMO, GenevaSatoru Nishikawa, Executive Director, ADRC, Kobe, Japan

Individual contributorsThe ISDR Secretariat thanks all those individuals, country and agency representatives who have provided contributions orcomments and who have helped in reviewing the current preliminary text of this review. The list is long and not all are men-tioned by name. Special thanks are extended to Kenzo Oshima, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs,whose encouragement and support throughout the process have been very valuable, and to Professor Denis Martin Benn,former interim Director of the ISDR Secretariat, who launched the idea of a global review on disaster reduction initiativesin 2001.

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Bastien Affeltranger, FranceTom Alcedo, CARE, IndiaMargaret Arnold, DMF, World Bank, Washington D.C.Andrea Athanas, Shell Global Solutions Yasemin Aysan, UNDP, GenevaDjillali Benour, University of Bab Ezzour, AlgeriaNeil Britton, New ZealandJohn Campbell, University of Waikato, New ZealandBarbara Carby, ODPEM, Jamaica Ed Clay, ODI, UKHe Changchui, FAO, Rome Jeremy Collymore, CDERA, BarbadosLouise Comfort, University of Pittsburg, USA Claude De Ville de Goyet, PAHO, Washington D.C.Amod Dixit, NSET, Nepal Norberto Fernandez, UNEP, NairobiDaria Ferrari, OCHA, GenevaHenry Gaudru, Société Volcanologique Européenne, FranceMohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany, IIEES, IranJohann Goldammer, GFMC, Germany Robert Hamilton, National Research Council, National

Academies, USAMaria Hartl, former DAW/UNDESA, New YorkTom Harrer, Mozambique Ailsa Holloway, University of Cape Town, South Africa Kari Juhani Keipi, IADB, Washington D.C.Sylvester Kalonge, USAID, Zambia Kamal Kishore, ADPC, ThailandAllan Lavell, FLACSO and LA RED, Costa RicaAlessandro Loretti, WHO, Geneva Kirsi Madi, UNICEF, GenevaJean-Pierre Massue, EUR-OPA Major Hazards, Council of

Europe, Strassbourg, FranceAlan Mearns, SOPAC, FijiStefan Micallef, UNEP, NairobiTanya Miquilena de Corrales, PREANDINO/CAF,

VenezuelaStuart Mustow, Hazards Forum, UKJaromir Nemec, CEUDIP, Czech RepublicAli Neumann, SDC/PREVAC, Nicaragua

Christopher Newhall, University of Washington, USASaturo Nishikawa, ADRC, Kobe, JapanToshiyasu Noda, former Disaster Preparedness Office,

Cabinet Office, JapanEva von Oelreich, IFRC, GenevaKenji Okazaki, UNCRD, Kobe, JapanBrett Orlando, IUCN, Switzerland Mary Otto-Chang, York Centre for Applied Sustainability,

CanadaDennis Parker, Middlesex University, UKJean Luc Poncelet, PAHO, Washington D.C.Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Otero, Instituto de Planificación

Física, CubaTim Radford, UKBadaoui Rouhban, UNESCO, ParisJack Rynn, AustraliaJohn Scott, USARajib Shaw, UNCRD, Kobe, JapanJan Sheltinga, UNCCD secretariat, BonnJosephine Shields, IFRC, GenevaOwen Shumba, SAFIRE, ZimbabweAnil Sinha, National Centre for Disaster Management, IndiaFranz Stoessel, PLANAT, SwitzerlandKen Sudo, JICA, Japan, Institute of Seismology, KazakhstanJason Switzer, IISD, Geneva, SwitzerlandPablo Torrealba, CEPREDENAC, Panama Christopher Tucker, OCIPEP, CanadaJaime Valdés, UN-HABITAT, GenevaDewald Van Niekerk, African Centre for Disaster Studies,

South Africa Ana Lisa Vetere A., European Commission, JRC, ItalyCarlos Villacis, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard

University, USAFlorian Wieneke, CubaDonald Wilhite, National Drought Center, University of

Nebraska, USAZheng Yuan-Chang, National Committee ISDR, ChinaKarl-Otto Zentel, DKKV, GermanyDave Zervaas, CRID, Costa Rica

Replies to the ISDR questionnaire on disaster reduction were received from: Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands,Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Guam, Honduras,India, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Laos, Lebanon, Lithuania, Madagascar, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mexi-co, Monaco, Mongolia, Nauru, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Salomon Islands, Samoa, SriLanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Tonga, Tunisia, Turkey, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Viet Nam, Zimbabwe.

The production team for the global review ISDR Secretariat: Mohamed Abchir, Pedro Basabe, Marie-Lou Darricau, John Harding, Abdullahi Majeed, Helena Molin Valdés (editorial and project coordination), Marianne Muller, Elina PalmMain consultants: Terry Jeggle, Haris Sanahuja, Carmen SchlosserSpecial advisor: Ian DavisEditorial support/proof reading: Michelle Katz, Fabien Nathan, Cristian NitschDesign and layout: Mario Barrantes Züniga

Other current and former ISDR Secretariat staff contributed in many different ways:Christine Alessi, Nicole Appel, Sálvano Briceño (ISDR Director), Stephanie Boubault, Astrid Gallecier, Elena Dokhlik, Sam Hammond,Susanne Jacobsen, Francesco Pisano, Christel Rose, Etsuko Tsunozaki

Photos: ADRC, ISDR Secretariat, MünichRe, PAHO, GFMC

FOREWORD

In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters -- floods, storms,earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, causedmaterial losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particu-lar, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty.

Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at leastexacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural bal-ance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forestcover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm'sway in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seis-mically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live inflood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and alack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters.

Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the Unit-ed Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by thesecretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disastertrends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initia-tives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global,national and local.

Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Earlywarning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in helping to reduce significantly the num-ber of people who lose their lives to disasters. New planning and forecasting tools are helping to mitigate thedevastation regularly wrought by floods. We can and must build a world of resilient communities and nations.I hope that this publication reaches the widest possible readership and rouses the international community todo its utmost to better equip people everywhere for life in our hazard-filled planet.

Kofi A. AnnanSecretary-GeneralJuly, 2002

UNITED NATIONS NATIONS UNIES

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IntroductionThis is a preliminary version of Living with Risk - a global review of disaster reduction circulated for consulta-tion. It includes a compilation of initiatives and reference information. It focuses on disaster risk reduction asenvisioned in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Therefore, it does not discuss specific expe-riences of disaster preparedness, response or recovery. It is intended for practitioners in disaster management,environmental and sustainable development, to provide guidance, policy orientation and inspiration.

It is a first effort to collect and systematise information on disaster risk reduction initiatives, by illustrating thefull range of activities and some of the many actors involved. While it is still limited geographically, it has thegoal to reach common understanding of the issues.

The review is based on examples of activities and various applications, identifying trends where possible. Itstarts with the important contexts of sustainabledevelopment surrounding disaster risk reduction,followed by a chapter on risk trends and assessment.Sections then describe some of the different elementsof disaster risk reduction illustrated from global,regional and national examples. Policy and institu-tional frameworks; knowledge and informationmanagement; and the application of specific meas-ures, such as environmental management, land useplanning, engineering protection of critical facilities,financial tools and early warning systems are high-lighted elements. A section on relevant internationalagendas and the role of the different parts of theUnited Nations involved with disaster risk reductionprovides for fuller understanding of the linksbetween them. Finally, the report outlines some ofthe challenges for the future by suggesting the needfor setting specific targets and monitoring progress. The report provides users with reference material and adirectory of many international, national and educational organizations dedicated to risk reduction.

Some development organizations have published reports and adopted policies to address disaster risk in thecontext of development. These are valuable tools and help increase public and political interest in risk reduc-tion and the objectives of ISDR. For example, in 2001, UNDP prepared a vulnerability risk index for leastdeveloped countries and is currently preparing a World Vulnerability Report, which focuses on the links betweendevelopment and disasters. UNEP has released the Global Environmental Outlook, GEO3, in 2002 prior to theWorld Summit for Sustainable Development, which includes a thorough analysis of environmental changeand vulnerability with a special section on disasters. In its reports for 2001 and 2002, the World Bank analysedthe relations between environment, poverty and natural disasters. The International Federation of Red Crossand Red Crescent Societies publishes its World Disasters Report annually. This year 2002, the focus is on reduc-ing risk.

Yet, a comprehensive and systematic review of ongoing initiatives is still lacking. The elaboration of a com-prehensive framework to measure disaster risk reduction efforts over time, which could set the ground fordeveloping specific risk reduction targets and thereby contribute to enhancing capacities in governments andcommunities is also needed. This review is a step in that direction, inviting consultation and partnership.

In recent years, there has been a major conceptu-al shift in how people seek to cope with disastersfrom natural hazards. While humanitarianresponse capacities are vital and need continuedattention, the focus on addressing risk underlinesthe recognition that human interventiondesigned to reduce the vulnerability of commu-nities and assets can reduce the impact of disas-ters. Gradually environmental and developmentstakeholders are becoming more involved in themanagement of risk and vulnerability reductiondue to its close interaction with natural resourcesmanagement.

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PrefaceA journey to a safer world

Living with risk – disaster reduction strategy

A disaster reduction strategy is a global challenge today and for the future. It involves every humancommunity, and almost every human endeavour. It also involves almost every physical phenomenonon the planet, from the high stratosphere to the abyssal depths.

The challenge of a disaster reduction strategy – and the theme of this review – is to find a way tolive with these phenomena, rather than die from them. The earthly powers are not just a fact of life,but one side of the coin of a good life anda “natural” disaster is only a disasterbecause people happened to be in the way– or had no other choice – and were caughtunawares when it happened.

The UN International Decade for Natur-al Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), 1990-99, was a decade dedicated to promotingsolutions to reduce risk from natural haz-ards. At the doorstep of the new millenni-um, the decade ended with more deathsfrom more disasters, involving greater eco-nomic losses and more human dislocationand suffering than when it began. Butcould dedicating one decade to the topic beexpected to solve the consequences of cen-turies of mismanagement and of passivefatalism before the vagaries of nature?

What the IDNDR put in motion was anirreversible and beneficial political andsocial process. That is what this review andthe International Strategy for DisasterReduction will build upon: foster moreawareness, more public commitment, moreknowledge and partnerships to implementrisk reduction measures of all kinds, at alllevels.

Earthly powers that offer wealth – and hazard

This is the paradox of a living planet: The earthlypowers that create wealth and fuel human securitycan also destroy it, depending on the ability ofhumankind to cope and to live with risk.

The subterranean violence beneath the famousPacific “ring of fire” also created the sublimelandscapes of Japan and Kamchatka, Sumatra andNew Zealand, from Alaska, Seattle and PugetSound to San Francisco, Valparaiso and Tierra delFuego.

The heat of the sun evaporates the top metre ormore of all the oceans of the world, every year. Italso drives powerful winds, and clouds that carrytorrential rain. At intervals the swollen rivers floodand deposit rich silt on what geographers callflood plains and farmers call fertile soil. In time,such wind and rain will erode all mountains, andremove the differences that drive regional cli-mates. Fortunately, the process of mountain build-ing goes on, accompanied, of course, by earth-quakes that lift bedrock towards the skies and vol-canic discharges that deliver new minerals to thesoil and new moisture to the air.

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A more vulnerable world

The trend shows increasing losses from disasters (see chapter 2). The reason is both simple andcomplex – it has to do with how people and societies are becoming more vulnerable. Although thefrequency of dramatic natural events may be constant, human activities contribute to theirincreased intensity. It depends on development practices, environmental protection, regulatedgrowth of cities, distribution of people and wealth in the safest places, and government structures.Human activity also has an impact on the planet’s climate, which will result in increased sea lev-els and potential disasters.

The number of people at risk has been growing by 70 to 80 million per year. More than 90 percent of population growth is in the developing world, among people with the smallest share ofresources and the biggest burden of exposure to disasters.

In theory, natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, drought, storms, tropical cyclones andhurricanes, storm, wildfire, tsunami, volcanic eruptions and avalanches, can threaten everyone. Inpractice, proportionally, they tend to hurt the poor most of all. This is because the poor outnum-ber the rich, and live in greater density in more poorly built housing on land most at risk.

The price of life, like the price of liberty, is constant vigilance. Natural hazards are constant threats.But every year the potential loss to life and livelihood soars as people converge in cities, where nowhalf of the people of the planet live. With the growth of the cities, and population, come changesin the landscape – and the disruption of natural ecosystems.

Hillsides are cleared of trees for building materials andfirewood, but not replanted. Wetlands are drained tomake space for new housing or workplaces. Rivers areengineered to follow unnatural routes. But with no trees,there is more erosion, and more silt to clog the rivers. Allof these things make landslides, floods or drought morelikely – and when they happen, more devastating.

People who have to struggle every day just to survive donot have the time or the strength to worry about more dis-tant environmental and natural hazards. So a disasterreduction strategy is inseparable from social and econom-ic development, and from thoughtful environmentalmanagement. These three things are at the heart of sus-tainable development.

A disaster reduction strategy must therefore be built onsustainable development policies, which take into accountthe potential risks for disasters and plan to reduce theserisks, involving everyone and providing not just help buthope.

“Imagine all the people…”

It would be quite possible to imagine a community or even a nation that lived with a regard fornature, despite its hazards, thanks to a coherent disaster risk reduction strategy in place.

Housing would be built out of appropriate materials, adapted to local conditions and according tobuilding codes. Its houses, hospitals, schools, markets, factories, government offices, power sup-plies and other critical services would be on the sites least exposed to risk.

Inhabitants would maintain forested or wetland areas as a form of natural flood control, as sourcesof local renewable revenue, and as security against other threats such as erosion and landslide.

People and government officials would be aware that a hazard that threatened one family or set-tlement would also be a threat to all. They would maintain a network of early warning and watch-fulness, linked to the experts who monitored weather signals or seismic instruments.

Elected or traditional leaders would have regular dia-logue not just with local, regional or national govern -ment officials and citizens, but also with the governmentagencies and scientists. Village councils would haveensured structures that serve as safe shelters in acyclone, or ground safe for livestock in the event offlood. Schools would teach children what to do when theriver rises, or the earth begins to shake. Farmers wouldhave granaries or fodder stores safe from storm andabove any likely flood level.

Health facilities would be safe, and health centres wouldwork with communities to reduce risk from disaster.Householders would have small but secure savings tohelp them through disruption caused by storm or inun-dation.

These communities would accept that information andcommunication were the most important elements of all.People would routinely listen to daily weather reports,and follow local political and economic debate throughradio, newspapers or television. Such communitieswould be more likely to shore up their own flooddefences, maintain their drainage or secure their ownhousing against destruction, by communal action. Leg-islators would understand that public safety was part oftheir obligation and administrators, of course, would beexpected to police such legislation.

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It is possible...

Safer communities, living with acceptable risk, doexist in, among other places, New Zealand, Cali-fornia, Japan, along the Gulf of Mexico andamong the low-lying coastal regions of westernEurope. All these regions are potentially vulnera-ble to natural hazard. All have suffered from theimpacts of major natural disasters but have metthem with lower loss of life and greater economicresilience. The difference is that these placesbelong to richer nations – rich enough to believethat life can and will always improve. Economicwealth is not the only factor in reducing risk.Political will and a communal sense of hope arepart of the collective protection against calamity.

Chile and Colombia have local disaster risk man-agement committees watching for future trouble.Bangladesh long ago established a local earlywarning system to alert the millions at risk whenfloods and tropical cyclones threaten. Safer fromthe hazards of weather or tectonic forces, peoplecan begin to build more economically secure livesfor themselves and their children.

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Journey to a safer world

This review, aimed mainly at practitioners as a guide and reference, is about how we cancontinue to develop a “culture of prevention”. It is a voyage of both discovery and redis-covery, about how human decisions increase or reduce vulnerability to natural hazards. Itillustrates lessons and experiences in disaster risk reduction. It explores the way in whichthe understanding of disaster management and risk has evolved over recent years. It takesaccount of the technologies of the future – the satellite sensors that might read telltalesigns of volcanic activity, seismic shift or collapsing hillsides days or weeks before anycatastrophe occurs, or telemetry that can monitor the build up of soil moisture in a water-shed that could serve as a warning of sudden flooding downstream.

Most of all, it looks at how societies organize themselves, how communities interact witheach other, how civic and national authorities respond to the challenges of natural hazard.It will explore the mosaic of interests, the kaleidoscope of attitudes and the network ofactors that must be mobilised towards risk reduction and disaster prevention, rather thanassessing the need for disaster relief.

It is, at bottom, about foreseeing danger and averting it. It will consider how warningsproceed from the work of technical specialists to the government authorities and fromthese to the people at risk. It will consider the political short-sightedness and the errors ofthinking – the increasing vulnerabilities and the unmet challenges – that turn enviromen-tal degradation, natural and technologyical hazards into social and economic disasters indifferent cultures and societies.

It will begin to explore the different strategies demanded by different kinds of human andenvironmental conditions. But it will also address a set of universal truths. Any disasterreduction strategy demands first of all political will to recognise and address the issues ofrisk. This calls for statesmanship rather than political shrewdness. This commitment mustthen be linked to national and local development planning and sustainable action.

It builds on an understanding that risk reduction and disaster prevention always make bet-ter economic sense than reliance on disaster relief. Although small groups cooperate spon-taneously because of immediate shared danger, larger societies need coherent legal obliga-tions and responsibilities that foster the involvement of the community, and the participa-tion of its people to face long term risks.

None of these things can happen without some form of public debate and education atevery level of society. It will require shared thinking at both international and regional lev-els because nations often share a forested terrain, or a river, or two sides of a mountainchain. Inevitably, they have a common interest in disaster prevention. It will also requirenew ways of looking at the landscape, with an eye not just to how it might be exploited butalso at the price it might exact for the wrong kind of exploitation.

Secure societies are those that have learned to live with their land, as well as from it. Dis-aster reduction strategies will have succeeded when people – governments, specialists,leaders and citizens – understand that a “natural disaster” is more a failure of foresight orevidence of their own neglected responsibility rather than the presumed consequence ofnatural forces or some other-worldly act of god.