Philip Lowe, Director General for Energy 10 November 2011

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin

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Outline of presentation

.Low carbon economy objective .Contribution of the energy sector .The Energy Roadmap 2050 .Implications for the EU .Implications for Ireland

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European Council, 4 February 2011

.EU objective for 2050 – GHG emissions

down to 80-95% below 1990 levels .Looks forward to elaboration of a low-carbon

2050 strategy – a framework for longer-term

action in energy and related sectors .Will require a revolution in energy systems

which must start now

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4

Basis of scenarios

80% domestic

reduction in 2050

Efficient

pathway: -25% in 2020 -40% in 2030 -60% in 2040

Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap (Mar 2011)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

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Sectoral milestones towards a low-carbon economy

GHG reductions

compared to 1990

2005 2030 2050

Power (CO2) -7% -54 to -68% -93 to -99%

Industry (CO2) -20% -34 to -40% -83 to -87%

Transport (incl. CO2 aviation,

excl. maritime) +30% +20 to -9% -54 to -67%

Residential and services (CO2) -12% -37 to -53% -88 to-91%

Agriculture (non-CO2) -20% -36 to -37% -42 to -49%

Other non-CO2 emissions -30% -72 to -73% -70 to -78%

-

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Energy Roadmap 2050 .To help in seeing what policy action needed in the next few years for an energy system transformation delivering energy security, competitiveness and decarbonisation .The post 2020 agenda, focused mainly on 2030, consistent with 2050 .To facilitate coherence of action by EU and MS .An exploration of possible futures for the EU energy system .Not a forecast, a beauty contest of scenarios, or a prescription

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Not starting from zero – energy system transformation already underway - 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns i

n M

t

Reference (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices)

Reference (frag. action, high fossil f. prices)

Reference (frag. action, oil shock)

Effect. Techn. (glob. action, low fossil f. prices)

Effect. Techn. (frag. Action, high fossil f. prices)

Effect. Techn. + lower EII effort (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices)

Delay. Clim. Act. (glob. action, low fossil f. prices)

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Energy Roadmap 2050 – scenarios analysed

.Business as usual (reference scenario) .Current Policy Initiatives (established

commitments) .High Energy Efficiency

.Diversified Supply Technologies .High RES .Delayed CCS .Low Nuclear

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Implications for the EU

Towards “no regrets” actions – indicated by all decarbonisation scenarios

- Need energy efficiency gains throughout

- Growing reliance on electricity

- Renewables – at least half of gross final energy consumption in 2050, at least 60% in electricity

- Need modernised intelligent infrastructure

- Need an efficient internal market

- A major long-term investment challenge throughout

- Fuel savings

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Energy demand – needs to be reduced

1 200

1 300

1 400

1 500

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

(Mto

e)

Reference (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices) Reference (frag. action, high fossil f. prices)

Reference (frag. action, oil shock) Effect. Techn. (glob. action, low fossil f. prices)

Effect. Techn. (frag. action, high fossil f. prices) Effect. Techn. (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices)

Delay. CCS (glob. action, low fossil f. prices) Delay. Electr. (glob. action, low fossil f. prices)

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Cost-effective energy saving potentials remain across all sectors

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Households Transport Industry Tertiary All sectors

Low Policy Intensity

High Policy Intensity

Technical potential

Source: Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2009.

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Electricity – growing importance

Graph 1: Share of electricity in current trend and decarbonisation scenarios

(in % of final energy demand)

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Range for current

trends scenarios

Range regarding

decarbonisation

scenarios

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EU renewable energy potential

Wind energy

onshore

Solar energy

Wave energy

Bioenergy

Simplified Map

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Investment needs – example of electricity and gas

Total investment needs in the electricity and gas sector

between 2010-20: over 1 trillion €

Power generation: ~ 500 bn Transmission and distribution: ~ 600 bn

Distribution: ~ 400 bn

Transmission: ~ 200 bn

RES: ~ 310 – 370 bn

Electricity: ~ 140 bn

(interconnectors: 70, offshore

grid: 30; smart grid installations

in transmission: 40)

Gas: ~ 70 bn

(import pipelines to the EU,

interconnectors, reverse flows,

storages, LNG)

NB: approximative figures, mainly from DG

ENER calculations based on data from

PRIMES, ENTSOs, KEMA etc.

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Priorities for 2020

Priorities beyond 2020

Electricity

Highways

CO2 transport

network

Priorities for 2020 and beyond

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Energy Roadmap 2050 – what can be expected? .Adoption 13 December 2011 .Should consolidate long-term investment

concerns in EU energy agenda and diminish

policy uncertainty for 2020-2030 .Should encourage deeper cooperation now

needed .Will be discussed in a range of fora .Danish Presidency - Council conclusions in May .European Parliament – rapporteur not yet

decided

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Energy Roadmap 2050 - Implications for Ireland

.Major low-carbon resources, need wider

European market to bring them properly into

play .EU framework

should facilitate

energy mix

and other

strategic

choices

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Ireland – already dealing with concrete issues in All-island, regional and EU contexts

.Efficiency .Infrastructure development, interconnections .Market integration .Coherence of support .System operation and integrity .Energy security .Financing .…