Instability In Afghanistan

Shane Smith - PowerPointAlexis Yurcon - Moderator

Jeff Kulchar - JournalistRebecca Fritsch - Editor

Problems

In recent years, political decisions have been influenced by the war on terror

These decisions have led to many problems Government Security Ethnic conflicts Struggles with peace Narcotics

Bonn Agreement

Pros Created a roadmap and timetable for

stabilizing the country Contained provisions for demobilization and

peacekeeping Proposed that ISAF be used to create

security within the country ISAF - International Security Assistance Force, led by

NATO

Bonn Agreement

Cons Made in haste, did not plan for the future of

Afghanistan Departments were distributed to political

factions as incentives Created a spoils system of appointment to public

office The competition worked against development of

a unified political elite

Pakistan's Failure to deal with the Taliban

General Musharraf's administration initially supported United States right after 9/11

Pakistan later proved to be a less than adequate ally in the war on terrorMusharraf was a patron of the TalibanAt the onset of Operation Enduring Freedom, key

Taliban leaders and thousands of troops relocated to Pakistan, occupying Quetta

Musharraf acknowledged the occupation in 2007, and stated that Afghan militants are supported from Pakistani soil

Problems in Government

2002-Bush blocked ISAF expansion beyond Kabul, Afghanistan's capital and largest city Helped Taliban Propaganda Led to further distrust of western countries

The Afghan people are not satisfied with their current government Voting system is flawed

Encourages vote buying and intimidation Easy to understand, but also easy to manipulate Works against the formation of organized political parties

Corruption

Many officials are corrupt Officials are elected with very few votes and are not

fit to be in office. They care more about themselves and their ethnic

interests than Afghanistan Corruption is worst in the judicial branch

Justice cannot be exercised when corruption is so common

It is difficult to change corrupt practices when those in power are benefiting from them

Best Case Scenario

Bonn agreement is changed Spoils system is eliminated or reduced Unneeded departments of government are

destroyed A primary election is held to limit the number of

candidates in an election ISAF is allowed to expand its influence, bringing

stability to the country

Worst Case Scenario

Corrupt individuals continue to be elected to public office Conditions degrade and the Taliban would regain

control of Afghanistan ISAF does not expand its area of influence, and

most afghans are not protected from drug lords and militants

Most Probable Case

Spoils system and election process will be modified and considered to be improved' Government may not change for several years ISAF expansion will take place very slowly unless

Obama makes it a priority Progress will be slowed by the economic situation

in the United States

Narcotics

Opium production has gotten out of control since the overthrow of the Taliban Wage Laborers are forced to harvest opium to

survive Eradicating crops may cause many laborers to join

the Taliban Alcohol is viewed as a worse substance that

opiates in Afghanistan, and the United States is seen as hypocritical for calling for the eradicating of opium while we allow alcohol

Best Case Scenario

Eliminate the causes of opium production Those who depend on opium profits can be

introduced to cereal crops A banking system needs to be established whereby

farmers can get loans to plant such crops

Worst Case Scenario

Complete crop eradication This would be a last resort to stop the production of

opiates Almost all farmers would become recruits for the

Taliban Very few farmers would switch to legal crop

production Funds for cereal crops will be rerouted by corrupt

politicians

Most Probable Case

The most probable case will most likely consist of many crops being eradicated and relatively few farmers switching to cereal crops

Some may join the Taliban, though not a majority

A banking system will be set up, but may fail if not properly engineered

Security

The strength of the Afghan government is directly related to how much security the government is able to provide its people

Afghans are not usually victims of the war on terror, except when in the wrong place at the wrong time

Afghans do, however, need protection from criminal gangs, militia men, and insurgents from out of the country

Security

The ISAF needs to expand its areas of influence to protect those living in small villages

A troop surge may help to bring security to many more Afghan people in remote villages

Best Case Scenario

A troop surge that has positive effects is the best outcome More troops would help secure hostile areas and

train Afghanistan's army More troops would also make more progress on the

war on terror

Worst Case Scenario

The worst outcome would be that a troop surge causes many casualties or increases the citizens' distrust of western countries

A surge could lead to Afghan protests and riots and increased conflicts with the Taliban

A troop surge may idea in Afghanistan because it would increase distrust of western countries

Funding their army may also be harmful because the Afghan people do not want to seem like a puppet of America

Most Probable Case

Obama will most likely focus on strengthening the Afghan army

He will also confront Pakistan, trying to keep the Taliban out of Afghanistan

Peace

The US has not placed a lot of public pressure on Pakistan

Pakistan is not convinced that the war on terror should be a joint effort for them

These policies create the idea that the united states has sided with Pakistan instead of with Afghanistan

Best Case Scenario

Pressure Pakistani leaders to take action against Taliban leaders This will decrease the number of conflicts in the

region Taliban forces will lose their control over

Afghanistan This could also motivate Pakistan to deal with their

own Taliban problem

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case would be violence between ethnic groups as a result of the attempted peace

There may also be many civilian casualties inflicted by the Taliban if we engage them

Most Probable Case

The most likely outcome of military force against the Taliban and pressure on Pakistan is the capture of some Taliban leaders, but not all

The arrests of these leaders could spark additional rebellion and conflict

Summary

Afghanistan is the victim of many poor decisions made in response to dire problems

Problems in countries like Afghanistan cannot be ignored, or they will worsen with time

The complex problems of Afghanistan have no simple solutions

This is why Afghanistan should be one of the top priorities of Barack Obama's administration

Study Guide

The study guide is available on the smittycorp wiki at http://smittycorp.wikispaces.com/