inserÇÃo de novas fontes renovÁveis no...

1 © Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

INSERÇÃO DE NOVAS FONTES RENOVÁVEIS NO PLANEJAMENTO ENERGÉTICO NACIONALThe Role of Flexible Power Plants

Global Network

2 © Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 Presentation name / Author

Wärtsilä Services’ global network

Widest range of offering and expertise

We are where our customers need us to be: 11,000

service professionals in 70 countries, 160 locations…

Installed base* – Wärtsilä Powering the World

Others

IPPs

Utilities

Industry

Europe:Output: 12.5 GWEurope:Output: 12.5 GW

Asia:Output: 19.8 GWAsia:Output: 19.8 GW

Africa & Middle East:Output: 12.5 GWAfrica & Middle East:Output: 12.5 GW

Americas:Output: 11.7 GWAmericas:Output: 11.7 GW

Total: 56,2 GWCountries: 169


This is Finland

EPG Summit, Prague, Dec 4 2012 Kenneth Engblom , Wartsila Corporation

Our nationalities

EPG Summit, Prague, Dec 4 2012 Kenneth Engblom , Wartsila Corporation

Finland India Italy China Netherlands Norway Great Britain Brazil Pakistan France Singapore Germany Philippines Spain Poland

South Korea Switzerland Denmark Bangladesh U.S. Indonesia Sweden Russia Japan Ecuador Kenya Myanmar Canada Turkey Malaysia

Dominica Guyana Greece South Africa Lithuania Senegal Colombia Nigeria Argentina Guinea Australia Sri Lanka Saudi Arabia Hungary Uganda

Cameroon Puerto Rico Tanzania Azerbaijan Estonia Zambia Portugal Madagascar Romania Gabon Taiwan Venezuela Mexico Ukraine Uruguay

Chile Jordania Antigua Panama Dominican Republic Vietnam Peru Yemen Iran Cuba Cyprus Guatemala Croatia Pap.New Guinea El Salvador

Thailand Egypt Ireland Serbia Morocco Slovenia Austria Bulgaria Jamaica Mozambique Nepal Netherlands Antilles Falkland IslandsGhana Latvia

New Zealand East Timor Albania Czech Republic Ethiopia Iraq Macau Mauritius Rwanda Somalia Cape Verde Surinam Syria Togo Zimbabwe

Unit.Arab Emirates Belgium Burkina-Faso Burundi Belarus Belize DR Congo Congo Australia Algeria Haiti Iceland Cambodia Cayman Islands

Kazakhstan Lebanon Macedonia Mauritania Namibia Paraguay Sudan Slovakia Tunisia

Faroe Islands

SPG references

STEC Pearsall, USAOutput: 202 MWFuel: Natural GasPrime movers: 24 x Wärtsilä 20V34 SGOperating mode: Wind followingStart of commercial operation: 2009


230 MW, USA

Plains End I and II, Colorado, USAFuel: Natural GasPrime movers: 20 x Wärtsilä 18V34 SG, 14 x Wärtsilä 20V34SGOutput: 231 MWOperating mode: Peaking / Wind followingYear of completion: 2001 & 2006


163 MW, USA

Humboldt Bay Generating Station, California, USAFuel: Dual (Natural Gas & LFO)Prime movers: 10 x Wärtsilä 18V50DFOutput: 163 MWOperating mode: Flexible BaseloadYear of completion: 2010Scope: EPC


176 MW, Brazil

UTE Viana, BrazilFuel: HFOPrime movers: 20 x Wärtsilä 20V32Output: 176 MW Operating mode: Grid stabilityYear of completion: 2009Scope: EPC


Market trends and challenges


• Economic growth, electrification and improving standard of living

• Growth in sustainable energy, reducing carbon emissions

• Rapid growth of intermittent renewable generation and escalating demand fluctuation

• Natural gas replacing other fossil fuels

• Ageing installed capacity driving investments in new technologies

Market trends and drivers

The world needs clean, affordable,and reliable power generation

World electricity consumption

-2,00%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

Electricity yearly cons. growth % GDP yearly growth rate %Source: Enerdata

World Electricity ConsumptionGWh

Reasons for growth of electricity demand • Electrification (heat pumps, appliances...)• GDP growth• Increasing standard of living


It is not different in Brazil


Annual change in GDP vs. increase in electrical energy consumption (% p.a.)

Source: EPE – Demand for Energy 2050; IBGE; MME

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

GDP Electrical Energy Consumption

2001 Rationing2008 Financial Crisis

%

� The Brazilian Energy Research Office (EPE) has estimated that the annual energy demand will more than triple during the 2013-2050 period, from 513 to 1624 TWh per year, but these figures are under evaluation to capture the impact of the economic crisis.

� The historically strong correlation between real GDP growth and the annual increase in electrical energy consumption suggests that the strong demand for electric power will continue in the coming years,after the recovery of the Brazilian GDP..

2013-2050 CAGR: 3.2%

Electrical energy demand (TWh / year)

Grid Demand Self-Generation Total (TWh)

2013-2050 CAGR: 3.2%

LNG is recognized as a bridge to link today's period to the future. 9.4 GW gas fired PP is the planned increment by 2023

The growing importance of renewables

Globally:• Demand for renewable energy continue to rise

– 2012: 1470 GW capacity

– 2011: 19% of final energy consumption

• Renewables (RES) accounted for >50% of total netadditions to electric generating capacity from all

sources in 2012

Source: RES21: Renewables 2013 – Global Status Report

• Solar photovoltaics (PV)

– 2007: <10 GW

– 2012: >100 GW

• Wind power

– 2007: <100 GW

– 2012: 275 GW


Wind power – cumulative capacity

Sources: GWEC,


Wind power – cumulative capacity


Solar power – cumulative capacity

Sources: statista.com/


World capacity mix 2010 & scenario 2030

Source: World Energy Outlook 2012 IEA, New Policies Scenario

Coal32%

Oil8%

Gas26%

Nuclear8%

Hydro20%

Bioenergy1%

Wind4%

Solar PV1%

Oher (Geothermal

, CSP, Marine)

0%

2010

5 183 GW

Coal26%

Oil3%

Gas26%

Nuclear6%

Hydro19%

Bioenergy2%

Wind11%

Solar PV6%

Other (Geothermal, CSP, Marine)

1%2030

8 588 GW


System impact of wind power

• Reaching 20% renewable power requires approximately 285 GW of installed wind

capacity in the EU

• A wind speed change from 9 -> 7 m/s could change wind power output with ~100 GW.

Such wind speed changes are barely notable and happen all the time.

Source: Vestas


Experiências – EUA, Texas

Texas has experienced 1h wind ramps of 3,039 MW increase and 2,849

decrease of 8,900 MW installed.

Experiências – EUA, Texas

~3,000 MW gone in <1h…

System impact of solar power

Source: CAISO


System impact of solar power


Wind chasing in Colorado, US

Coal power plants

Load

Wind generation

Gas generation

Plains End 1 & 2 power plantsFlexible generation

In systems with high wind penetration, the system faces• Lower average load & more part load operation of installed plants• Faster ramp up’s and down’s needs• More starts and stops

Grid operator data from:

EPG Summit, Prague, Dec 4 2012 Kenneth Engblom , Wartsila Corporation23 © Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

GW

Hour

Technical challenge

NUCLEAR

COAL

FLEXGEN 2

SOLAR

WIND

FLEXGEN 1

Quick Starts

& loading

Quick Stops &

de-loading

Part load & spinning reserves24 © Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

Flexibility is key!


Fonte: PDE 2022 (http://epe.gov.br/PDEE/20140124_1.pdf).

• Larga expansão de capacidade instalada de fontes sazonais e/ou intermitentes no sistema elétrico brasileiro, com destaque para a fonte eólica (+15GW).

• Novas usinas hidrelétricas (+36GW) usarão o conceito de fio d’água, não havendo nova capacidade de armazenamento, sendo a maioria a ser instalada na Amazônia.

• O Brasil perderá, ao longo dos próximos anos, a capacidade de armazenamento das hidrelétricas que possui. Haverá redução na relação entre energia armazenável e carga.

• Incerteza quanto as hidrologias futuras no NE brasileiro.

Again, not different here...


Como o sistema opera hoje


Como será que vai ficar?


Main topics for discussions

• There is no magic solution;

• Impacts (in Brazil) of intermitent and stochastic generation needs further study and developments;

• More fluctuations in load and generation will require more system flexibility;

• State-of-art forecast methodologies are a must;

• Planning of the operation has to be adapt;

• Auction process requires constant update;

• Natural gas supply issue must be adressed.


EPG Summit, Prague, Dec 4 2012 Kenneth Engblom , Wartsila Corporation30 © Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

inserÇÃo de novas fontes renovÁveis no...

Documents