inpe-cptec’s effort on coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling
DESCRIPTION
Paulo Nobre INPE-CPTEC. INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling. Apoio:. Outline. Background development coupled O-A model at CPTEC Current operational version 1.0 Seasonal and extended weather examples Skill assessments Climate studies Development of version 2.0 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere ModelingOcean-Atmosphere Modeling
Paulo NobrePaulo NobreINPE-CPTECINPE-CPTEC
Apoio:Apoio:
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Outline
• Background development coupled O-A model at CPTEC
• Current operational version 1.0– Seasonal and extended weather examples– Skill assessments– Climate studies
• Development of version 2.0• Future plans
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Background
• Originated from COLA coupled ocean-atmosphere model
• V. 0: COLA AGCM, RAS, SIB, T42L18, anomaly coupling to MOM_2 at 1/3 degree deep global tropics, L20.
• Version 1.0: CPTEC/COLA AGCM, RAS, SSiB, T062L28, fully coupled to MOM_3 at ¼ degree deep global tropics, L20.
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Development of INPE’s CPTEC CGCM 2.0
• AGCM: – CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T213L64– Kuo/RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection – Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…),– improved solar radiation algorithm– LSM: SSiB/IBIS
• OGCM: – MOM4 MPI, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50, free
sfc, fresh water flux;– Dynamical ice– Biogeochemistry
• MOM4’s FSM coupler– 3 hours coupling interval
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
MOM 4’s FMS COUPLER
Flux Ocean to Ice Sfc Boundary Layer
Update Ice Model up
Update Land Model
Flux down from AtmosAtmos Model Run
Update Atmos Model up
Flux up to Atmos
Update Ice Model
Atmos Loop
Atmos Loop End
Avg psurfAtmos-2-Ice
SST-2-Atmos
Update Land Model
Flux Ice to Ocean
Update Ice Model down
Flux Land to Ice
Ocean Loop
Ocean Loop EndUpdate Ocean Model
Coupled Loop
Coupled Loop
Coupler End
Coupler Init
Slow
Loo
pSl
ow L
oop Fa
st
Fast
Fa
st
Fast
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
OGCM Modular Ocean Model (MOM) version 3 Global Tropics (40S – 40N) 1/4 x 1/4 degree deep tropics of the Atlantic Ocean Pacanowski and Philander vertical mixing Rigid lid approximation
CGCM: (daily, fully coupled) to CPTEC AGCM, T062L28, RAS, SSiB.
Atmos IC: NCEPOcean IC: MOM3 forced runs, no Ocean Data Assimilation10 members, 20 years of 8 month forecast runs starting at
each calendar month for both AGCM and CGCM.
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere predictability experiment
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
OGCM Grid
High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Coupled Ocean-Atmos GCM SuiteCoupled Ocean-Atmos GCM Suite InitializationInitialization
IC
Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast
AtmosFCSTs
SFCFluxes
SST
AGCM
OGCM
Tau &Heat
OGCMdaily
ICNCEPIC
NCEPIC
NCEPICs
NCEP
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playCoupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations
Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)
Increased Increased Coupled Coupled ModelModelForecast Forecast SkillSkill
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Scientific Motivation: Scientific Motivation: SACZ low predictabilitySACZ low predictability
DJF MAM
Marengo et al. (2002)
CPTEC AGCM, 50 years, 10 Member Ensemble, Kuo, T062L28, Obs SSTCPTEC AGCM, 50 years, 10 Member Ensemble, Kuo, T062L28, Obs SST
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playCoupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations
Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)
Decreased Decreased Coupled Coupled ModelModelForecast Forecast SkillSkill
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
OI-SST / NCEP Reanalysis
OGCM Climatology
CGCM Climatology
Eastern Oceans’ Coupled O-A Interactions
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
CGCM SWRad systematic errors
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
CGCM Current operational runs at CPTEC
• CGCM – seasonal climate– T062L28, RAS– 10 Members per month– 7 months forecast
• CGCM – extended weather– T126L28, RAS, – 2 members per day– 30 days forecast
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
SLP FCST BIASOVER SE BRAZIL
CGCM
Ensemble
AVN
CPTEC126
CPTEC213
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
SLP RMSE over South America
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Anomaly Correlation Geopot. Hight over South America
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 200426 March 2004
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
72 hours CATARINA FCSTCGCM-AGCM (T62L28) SLP
ci: 12Z24MAR2004 FCST: 12Z27MAR2004
Nobre and Malagutti, (pers. comm)
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
CTRL
Total deforest25% rainfall reduction
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
CTRL
Total Deforest40% rainfall reduction
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
CGCM 100% deforest departures
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
Nobre et al. (2008) acceptedNobre et al. (2008) accepted
Statistically significant departures are shaded
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
Pacific Thermocline DepthDeforest – Ctrl (shades)
Nobre et al. (2008) acceptedNobre et al. (2008) accepted
Statistically significant departures are shaded
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv)
NADW
NADW
AABW
AAIW
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling
30 days avrg spinup SST
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling
30 days avrg spinup Precip
Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008
INPE’s Climate Forecast INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite GoalCoupled Suite Goal
Data AssimilationData Assimilation
AGCM
OGCM
AtmosOBS
T-S
IC
Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast
AtmosFCST
daily/hourly
SFCfluxes
SST
OGCM
AGCM
6 hourly
RegionalModel
hourly
HydrologyModel
CropModel
HealthModel
WaveModel